Postoperative cataract cases among atomic bomb survivors: radiation dose response and threshold

Recent evidence argues against a high threshold dose for vision-impairing radiation-induced cataractogenesis. We conducted logistic regression analysis to estimate the dose response and used a likelihood profile procedure to determine the best-fitting threshold model among 3761 A-bomb survivors who underwent medical examinations during 2000-2002 for whom radiation dose estimates were available, including 479 postoperative cataract cases. The analyses indicated a statistically significant dose-response increase in the prevalence of postoperative cataracts [odds ratio (OR), 1.39; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.24-1.55] at 1 Gy, with no indication of upward curvature in the dose response. The dose response was suggestive when the restricted dose range of 0 to 1 Gy was examined. A nonsignificant dose threshold of 0.1 Gy (95% CI, <0-0.8) was found. The prevalence of postoperative cataracts in A-bomb survivors increased significantly with A-bomb radiation dose. The estimate (0.1 Gy) and upper bound (0.8 Gy) of the dose threshold for operative cataract prevalence was much lower than the threshold of 2-5 Gy usually assumed by the radiation protection community and was statistically compatible with no threshold at all.     

Effect of radiation on age at menopause among atomic bomb survivors

Exposure to ionizing radiation has been thought to induce ovarian failure and premature menopause. Proximally exposed female atomic bomb survivors were reported to experience menopause immediately after the exposure more often than those who were distally exposed. However, it remains unclear whether such effects were caused by physical injury and psychological trauma or by direct effects of radiation on the ovaries. The objective of this study was to see if there are any late health effects associated with the exposure to atomic bomb radiation in terms of age at menopause in a cohort of 21,259 Life Span Study female A-bomb survivors. Excess absolute rates (EAR) of natural and artificial menopause were estimated using Poisson regression. A linear threshold model with a knot at 0.40 Gy [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.13, 0.62] was the best fit for a dose response of natural menopause (EAR at 1 Gy at age of 50 years = 19.4/1,000 person-years, 95% CI: 10.4, 30.8) and a linear threshold model with a knot at 0.22 Gy (95% CI: 0.14, 0.34) was the best fit for artificial menopause (EAR at 1 Gy at age of 50 years for females who were exposed at age of 20 years = 14.5/1,000 person-years, 95% CI: 10.2, 20.1). Effect modification by attained age indicated that EARs peaked around 50 years of age for both natural and artificial menopause. Although effect modification by age at exposure was not significant for natural menopause, the EAR for artificial menopause tended to be larger in females exposed at young ages. On the cumulative incidence curve of natural menopause, the median age at menopause was 0.3 years younger in females exposed to radiation of 1 Gy compared with unexposed females. The median age was 1 year younger for combined natural and artificial menopause in the same comparison. In conclusion, age at menopause was thought to decrease with increasing radiation dose for both natural and artificial menopause occurring at least 5 years after the exposure.     

Effects of radiation on the longitudinal trends of hemoglobin levels in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors

The late effects of radiation on the hematopoietic system have not been fully evaluated. We examined the long-term effects of radiation exposure on hemoglobin levels in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors over a 40-year period from 1958 to 1998. Compared to the unexposed survivors, the mean hemoglobin levels for those exposed to a bone marrow dose of 1 Gy were significantly reduced by 0.10 g/dl (95% CI: 0.04 to 0.16) or 0.67% at 40 years of age (P < 0.0001) and by 0.24 g/dl (95% CI: 0.08 to 0.40) or 1.8% at 80 years of age. Radiation effects are greater for smokers than for nonsmokers at age less than 35 years (P < 0.01), although cigarette smoking was associated with increased hemoglobin levels. Sex and birth cohort differences in radiation effects were not found after adjusting for smoking. The radiation-induced reduction in hemoglobin levels could not be explained by the presence of certain anemia-associated diseases.     

Effects of radiation on the longitudinal trends of total serum cholesterol levels in the atomic bomb survivors.

The effects of radiation on the long-term trends of the total serum cholesterol levels of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors were examined using data collected in the Adult Health Study over a 28-year period (1958-1986). The growth-curve method was used to model the longitudinal age-dependent changes in cholesterol levels. For each sex, temporal trends of cholesterol levels were characterized with respect to age, body mass index, city and birth year. We then examined whether the temporal trends differed by radiation dose. We showed that the mean growth curve of cholesterol levels for the irradiated subjects were significantly higher than that for the unirradiated subjects, and that the increase was greater for women than for men. No difference in dose response was detected between Hiroshima and Nagasaki. An increased mean level of cholesterol was evident for irradiated women in general, but a notable increase was apparent in males only for the youngest birth cohort of 1935-1945. The difference in the mean cholesterol levels between the irradiated and unirradiated subjects diminished past 70 years of age. It is not known whether this is due to natural progression or is an artifact of nonrandom variation in the rate of participation in the examinations. The maximum predicted increase at 1 Gy for women occurred at age 52 years for the 1930 cohort: 2.5 mg/dl (95% CI 1.6-3.3 mg/dl) for Hiroshima and 2.3 mg/dl (95% CI 1.5-3.1 mg/dl) for Nagasaki. The corresponding increase for men occurred at age 29 years for the 1940 cohort: 1.6 mg/dl (95% CI 0.4-2.8) for Hiroshima and 1.4 mg/dl (95% CI 0.3-2.6) for Nagasaki. Controlling for cigarette smoking did not alter the dose-response relationship. Although the difference in the mean growth curves of the irradiated and unirradiated groups was statistically significant, there was a considerable overlap in the individual growth curves of the two groups. The significant sex difference and the greater magnitude of radiation effects in women suggest that hormonal changes resulting from radiation exposure, such as accelerated menopause, is an area worth investigating to delineate the mechanisms underlying the increased cholesterol levels of the irradiated female subjects. This increase may also partially explain the increased rate of coronary heart disease seen in the atomic bomb survivors.     

Organ doses from radiation therapy in atomic bomb survivors

Previous surveys of radiation therapy among the Life Span Study (LSS) population at the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) revealed that 1,670 (1.4%) of the LSS participants received radiation treatments before 1984. The data on therapeutic radiation doses are indispensable for studying the relationship between radiation treatments and subsequent cancer occurrences. In this study, the radiation treatments were reproduced experimentally to determine the scattered radiation doses. The experiments were conducted using a female human phantom and various radiation sources, including a medium-voltage X-ray machine and a (60)Co gamma-ray source. Doses were measured using thermoluminescence dosimetry and ionization chambers. Radiation doses were determined for the salivary glands, thyroid gland, breast, lung, stomach, colon, ovary and active bone marrow. The results have been used for documenting the organ doses received by patients in previous surveys. The contribution of therapeutic irradiation to the occurrence of chromosome aberrations was studied using data on doses to active bone marrow from both radiation treatments and atomic bomb exposures in 26 RERF Adult Health Study participants. The results suggest that radiation treatments contributed to a large part of their frequencies of stable-type chromosome aberrations. The therapeutic radiation doses determined in the present study are available for investigating the effects of therapeutic irradiation on the subsequent primary cancers among atomic bomb survivors who received radiation treatments.     

Effects of radiation on incidence of primary liver cancer among atomic bomb survivors.

We describe the radiation risk for primary liver cancers between 1958 and 1987 in a cohort of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan. The analysis is based on a comprehensive pathology review of known or suspected liver neoplasms that generated 518 incident, first primary cases, mostly hepatocellular carcinoma. Excess relative risk from atomic bomb radiation was linear: 0.81 per sievert weighted liver dose (95% CI [0.32, 1.43]; P < 0.001). Males and females had similar relative risk so that, given a threefold higher background incidence in males, the radiation-related excess incidence was substantially higher in males. Excess risk peaked for those with age at exposure in the early 20s; there was essentially no excess risk in those exposed before age 10 or after age 45. Whether this was due to a difference in sensitivity or possible confounding by other factors could not be addressed retrospectively in the full cohort. A paucity of cholangiocarcinoma and hemangiosarcoma cases suggested that they are not significantly associated with whole-body radiation exposure, as they are with the internal alpha-particle-emitting radiological contrast medium Thorotrast. Because most of the radiation-related excess cases occurred among males, it is important to ascertain what factors put men at greater risk of radiation-related liver cancer.     

Joint effects of radiation and smoking on lung cancer risk among atomic bomb survivors

Results are given on the joint effect of radiation exposure and cigarette smoking on lung cancer risks among A-bomb survivors, based on 592 cases through 1994. Information on smoking was derived from mail surveys and clinical interviews of 45113 persons in the Radiation Effects Research Foundation cohort. Radiation and smoking effects on lung cancer are found to be significantly sub-multiplicative and quite consistent with additivity. The smoking relative risk, previously very low in studies of this cohort, is now similar to that found in Western populations. This increase is likely to be related to the scarcity of cigarettes during and after the war. The smoking relative risk depends little on sex. After adjusting for smoking, the radiation-related risks relative to background rates for nonsmokers are similar to those for other solid cancers: a sex-averaged ERR/Sv of about 0.9 with a female:male sex ratio of about 1.6. Adjusting for smoking removes a spuriously large female:male ratio in radiation relative risk due to confounding between sex and smoking level. The adjustment also removes an artifactual age-at-exposure effect in the radiation relative risk, opposite in direction to other cancers, which is due to birth cohort variation in lung cancer rates.     

Allowing for random errors in radiation dose estimates for the atomic bomb survivor data

The presence of random errors in the individual radiation dose estimates for the A-bomb survivors causes underestimation of radiation effects in dose-response analyses, and also distorts the shape of dose-response curves. Statistical methods are presented which will adjust for these biases, provided that a valid statistical model for the dose estimation errors is used. Emphasis is on clarifying some rather subtle statistical issues. For most of this development the distinction between radiation dose and exposure is not critical. The proposed methods involve downward adjustment of dose estimates, but this does not imply that the dosimetry system is faulty. Rather, this is a part of the dose-response analysis required to remove biases in the risk estimates. The primary focus of this report is on linear dose-response models, but methods for linear-quadratic models are also considered briefly. Some plausible models for the dose estimation errors are considered, which have typical errors in a range of 30-40% of the true values, and sensitivity analysis of the resulting bias corrections is provided. It is found that for these error models the resulting estimates of excess cancer risk based on linear models are about 6-17% greater than estimates that make no allowance for dose estimation errors. This increase in risk estimates is reduced to about 4-11% if, as has often been done recently, survivors with dose estimates above 4 Gy are eliminated from the analysis.     

Temporal analysis of a dose-response relationship: leukemia mortality in atomic bomb survivors

A data analysis that incorporates time dependencies is demonstrated for the dose response of leukemia mortality in the atomic bomb survivors. The time dependencies are initially left unspecified and the data on leukemia mortality--up to the end of 1978--are used to infer them. Several findings based on T65 revised doses (T65DR) are obtained. First, it is shown that the fits to the data of time-dependent L (linear in gamma dose)-Q (quadratic in gamma dose)-L (linear in neutron dose), L-L, and Q-L dose-response models are significantly improved (P less than 0.001) by using the corresponding time-dependent dose-response models. Second, it is shown that the increased risk of leukemia mortality due to gamma irradiation decreases in time while the increased risk due to neutron exposure decreases more slowly, if at all, in time. Consequently, relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of neutrons is shown to increase in time (P = 0.002) and the current definition of RBE as a time-independent quantity is therefore challenged. It is demonstrated with time-dependent models that the L-L model has a poor fit (P = 0.01) to the data for the first 7 years of study, but has an adequate fit for the remaining 21 years. In contrast the Q-L model has an adequate fit for the entire follow-up period (P greater than 0.30).     

Mortality of atomic bomb survivors predicted from laboratory animals

Exposure, pathology and mortality data for mice, dogs and humans were examined to determine whether accurate interspecies predictions of radiation-induced mortality could be achieved. The analyses revealed that (1) days of life lost per unit dose can be estimated for a species even without information on radiation effects in that species, and (2) accurate predictions of age-specific radiation-induced mortality in beagles and the atomic bomb survivors can be obtained from a dose-response model for comparably exposed mice. These findings illustrate the value of comparative mortality analyses and the relevance of animal data to the study of human health effects.     

Solid cancer incidence in atomic bomb survivors: 1958-1998

This is the second general report on radiation effects on the incidence of solid cancers (cancers other than malignancies of the blood or blood-forming organs) among members of the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors. The analyses were based on 17,448 first primary cancers (including non-melanoma skin cancer) diagnosed from 1958 through 1998 among 105,427 cohort members with individual dose estimates who were alive and not known to have had cancer prior to 1958. Radiation-associated relative risks and excess rates were considered for all solid cancers as a group, for 19 specific cancer sites or groups of sites, and for five histology groups. Poisson regression methods were used to investigate the magnitude of the radiation-associated risks, the shape of the dose response, how these risks vary with gender, age at exposure, and attained age, and the evidence for inter-site variation in the levels and patterns of the excess risk. For all solid cancers as a group, it was estimated that about 850 (about 11%) of the cases among cohort members with colon doses in excess of 0.005 Gy were associated with atomic bomb radiation exposure. The data were consistent with a linear dose response over the 0- to 2-Gy range, while there was some flattening of the dose response at higher doses. Furthermore, there is a statistically significant dose response when analyses were limited to cohort members with doses of 0.15 Gy or less. The excess risks for all solid cancers as a group and many individual sites exhibit significant variation with gender, attained age, and age at exposure. It was estimated that, at age 70 after exposure at age 30, solid cancer rates increase by about 35% per Gy (90% CI 28%; 43%) for men and 58% per Gy (43%; 69%) for women. For all solid cancers as a group, the excess relative risk (ERR per Gy) decreases by about 17% per decade increase in age at exposure (90% CI 7%; 25%) after allowing for attained-age effects, while the ERR decreased in proportion to attained age to the power 1.65 (90% CI 2.1; 1.2) after allowing for age at exposure. Despite the decline in the ERR with attained age, excess absolute rates appeared to increase throughout the study period, providing further evidence that radiation-associated increases in cancer rates persist throughout life regardless of age at exposure. For all solid cancers as a group, women had somewhat higher excess absolute rates than men (F:M ratio 1.4; 90% CI 1.1; 1.8), but this difference disappears when the analysis was restricted to non-gender-specific cancers. Significant radiation-associated increases in risk were seen for most sites, including oral cavity, esophagus, stomach, colon, liver, lung, non-melanoma skin, breast, ovary, bladder, nervous system and thyroid. Although there was no indication of a statistically significant dose response for cancers of the pancreas, prostate and kidney, the excess relative risks for these sites were also consistent with that for all solid cancers as a group. Dose-response estimates for cancers of the rectum, gallbladder and uterus were not statistically significant, and there were suggestions that the risks for these sites may be lower than those for all solid cancers combined. However, there was emerging evidence from the present data that exposure as a child may increase risks of cancer of the body of the uterus. Elevated risks were seen for all of the five broadly classified histological groups considered, including squamous cell carcinoma, adenocarcinoma, other epithelial cancers, sarcomas and other non-epithelial cancers. Although the data were limited, there was a significant radiation-associated increase in the risk of cancer occurring in adolescence and young adulthood. In view of the persisting increase in solid cancer risks, the LSS should continue to provide important new information on radiation exposure and solid cancer risks for at least another 15 to 20 years.     

Prevalence of hepatitis B virus infection among atomic bomb survivors

The aim of this study was to determine whether the prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) carriers increased with atomic bomb radiation dose, and whether radiation decreased the ability to clear HBV among the atomic bomb survivors. The study subjects were 6,121 participants in the Adult Health Study of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. After adjustment for age, sex, city and potential confounders, the rates of seropositivity for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), indicating current HBV infections, and anti-hepatitis B core antibody, indicating either cured or current infections, increased with radiation dose. However, no relationship was observed between radiation and anti-hepatitis B surface antibody (indicating cured infection). The proportion of persons who were unable to clear the virus, as the proportion of HBsAg-positive persons among those ever infected by HBV (positive for HBsAg or surface or core hepatitis B antibody), increased significantly with radiation dose among those receiving blood transfusions. This proportion was not related to dose among those who reported no such transfusions. The findings may suggest a lower likelihood of clearance after HBV infection among those who were more likely to have been infected with HBV as adults after atomic bomb irradiation rather than as infants or adults prior to irradiation.     

Effects of radiation and lifestyle factors on risks of urothelial carcinoma in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors

Among the Life Span Study (LSS) of Atomic-bomb survivors, recent estimates showed that unspecified bladder cancer had high radiation sensitivity with a notably high female-to-male excess relative risk (ERR) per radiation dose ratio and were the only sites for which the ERR did not decrease with attained age. These findings, however, did not consider lifestyle factors, which could potentially confound or modify the risk estimates. This study estimated the radiation risks of the most prevalent subtype of urinary tract cancer, urothelial carcinoma, while accounting for smoking, consumption of fruit, vegetables, alcohol and level of education (a surrogate for socioeconomic status). Eligible study subjects included 105,402 (males = 42,890) LSS members who were cancer-free in 1958 and had estimated radiation doses. Members were censored due to loss of follow-up, incident cancer of another type, death, or the end of calendar year 2001. Surveys (by mail or clinical interview) gathered lifestyle data periodically for 1963-1991. There were 63,827 participants in one or more survey. Five hundred seventy-three incident urothelial carcinoma cases occurred, of which 364 occurred after lifestyle information was available. Analyses were performed using Poisson regression methods. The excess relative risk per weighted gray unit (the gamma component plus 10 times the neutron component, Gy(w)) was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.43-1.78) but the risks were not dependent upon age at exposure or attained age. Lifestyle factors other than smoking were not associated with urothelial carcinoma risk. Neither the magnitude of the radiation ERR estimate (1.00 compared to 0.96), nor the female-to-male (F:M) ERR/Gy(w) ratio (3.2 compared to 3.4) were greatly changed after accounting for all lifestyle factors. A multiplicative model of gender-specific radiation and smoking effects was the most revealing though there was no evidence of significant departures from either the additive or multiplicative joint effect models. Among the LSS cohort members with doses greater than 0.005 Gy(w) (average dose 0.21 Gy(w)), the attributable fraction of urothelial carcinoma due to radiation was 7.1% in males and 19.7% in females. Among current smokers, the attributable fraction of urothelial carcinoma due to smoking was 61% in males and 52% in females. Relative risk estimates of smoking risk were approximately two for smokers compared to nonsmokers. After adjustment for lifestyle factors, gender-specific radiation risks and the F:M ERR/Gy(w), the ratios of excess urothelial carcinoma risk were similar to the estimates without adjusting for lifestyle factors. Smoking was the primary factor responsible for excess urothelial carcinoma in this cohort. These findings led us to conclude that the radiation risk estimates of urothelial carcinoma do not appear to be strongly confounded or modified by smoking, consumption of alcohol, fruits, or vegetables, or level of education.     

No evidence of radiation effect on mutation rates at hypervariable minisatellite loci in the germ cells of atomic bomb survivors

Human minisatellites consist of tandem arrays of short repeat sequences, and some are highly polymorphic in numbers of repeats among individuals. Since these loci mutate much more frequently than coding sequences, they make attractive markers for screening populations for genetic effects of mutagenic agents. Here we report the results of our analysis of mutations at eight hypervariable minisatellite loci in the offspring (61 from exposed families in 60 of which only one parent was exposed, and 58 from unexposed parents) of atomic bomb survivors with mean doses of >1 Sv. We found 44 mutations in paternal alleles and eight mutations in maternal alleles with no indication that the high doses of acutely applied radiation had caused significant genetic effects. Our finding contrasts with those of some other studies in which much lower radiation doses, applied chronically, caused significantly increased mutation rates. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.