区域生态经济系统的物质输入与输出分析——以常州市武进区为例

运用物质流分析（MFA）方法,对江苏省常州市武进区生态经济系统中物质输入与输出进行了系统的分析,结果表明：（1）随着社会经济发展和人口增长,武进区物质输入总量及人均物质输入量也在增加,但递增速率均远小于GDP增长速率,而物质输出总量及人均物质输出量则呈现递减趋势;（2）在不考虑水的因素情况下,武进区物质输入量保持较快的上升速度,其中固体物质的增长速率远远大于气体物质的增长速率;物质输出量则呈总体下降趋势,其中以气体物质输出量的贡献最大,对环境造成污染的物质以气体特别是以化石燃料燃烧排放的废气和工业废气为主;（3）排除占大部分比例农业用水的上升,工业用水、城镇生活用水和地下水总量及人均利用强度都在减少;同时,总的废水排放量及人均排放量在减少,其中又以生活废水排放量的减少最快,其次是工业废水;（4）单位GDP物质输入量的变化处于波动状态,同期的单位GDP物质输出量则呈递减趋势,单位GDP用水量和单位GDP废水排放量则有相同的递减趋势,表征了武进区资源利用效率的稳步提高,区域经济增长和环境压力也在逐步脱钩。上述结果体现了武进区近年来循环经济发展模式的优势,但还存在较多问题,说明武进区在调整物质利用强度和提高资源利用效率方面还需下更大的功夫,并采取相关措施,以期提高实施循环经济战略与建设节约型社会的地位和意义。文章最后结合研究区实际情况就区域环境一经济的协调发展进行了展望,指出了物质流分析方法在应用中的一些缺陷,为今后该领域的进一步研究提供了借鉴。     

重庆市城市化与生态环境交互关系的协整分析

运用协整理论和误差修正模型考察了重庆市1978-2007年期间城市化与生态环境相互作用的关系,遴选出作用于生态环境的2项主要的城市化指标和影响城市化的4项主要的生态环境指标,它们能反映出交互作用的机制。结果发现:1978-2007年,重庆市城市化与生态环境之间存在长期均衡关系,城市化对生态环境的正向作用明显强于生态环境对城市化的反向影响,误差修正系数较长期协整方程中的系数要小。从长期来看,城市化水平对生态环境变化的解释能力正在逐步增强,这充分证明生态环境功能的弱化是城市化步伐推进的必然结果。就城市化对生态环境的响应效果而言,一方面城市化是影响重庆市生态环境的重要原因,另一方面生态环境对城市化也存在着反作用。生态环境对城市化进程产生外在压力,但这一反馈机制往往具有一定的滞后效应。城市化对解释生态环境预测方差分解起着重要作用,然而生态环境对城市化预测方差的贡献度较小。     

基于物质流和生态足迹的可持续发展指标体系构建——以安徽省铜陵市为例

将物质流分析方法和生态足迹模型相结合,构建可持续发展指标体系,利用因子分析法对安徽省铜陵市2000—2010年间的可持续发展状况进行了评价。结果表明:(1)铜陵市直接物质输入(DMI)总体呈增长趋势,2010年相比2000年增长2.65倍,进口比重有所下降,区域资源开采活动有所增强,但直接物质输入仍主要依赖于进口,区内加工排放(DPO)总体呈上升趋势,区域内隐藏流(DHF)成为环境压力的主要来源;(2)铜陵市物质生产力数据显示其在物质利用效益方面有了改善,但与同期国内平均水平相比,仍存在一定差距;(3)铜陵市人均生态足迹持续上升,2010年达到7 hm2/人,生态足迹与生态承载力之间的矛盾逐渐加大;(4)可持续发展指标体系评价表明,铜陵市可持续发展状况呈现下降趋势。铜陵市应从调整三次产业关系、转变经济运行方式等角度出发,实现真正意义上的可持续发展。     

西南岩溶区广西生态安全及资源利用效率

构建了基于生态足迹理论的生态安全综合评价模型,然后基于生态安全评价指标,把数据驱动下动态计量经济学的单位根检验和与协整分析模型引进到生态安全与资源利用效率之间的动态均衡关系的研究中来。以西南岩溶区广西为例,首先采用生态足迹理论方法来测算1990～2003年广西生态安全的生态足迹、生态承载力、生态盈亏及生态压力指数,然后采用动态计量的协整分析方法对广西区域资源利用效率与生态安全状况诸指标之间的长期关系进行了协整分析。结果显示,广西生态足迹呈不断增加趋势,生态承载力呈不断下降趋势,出现了严重的生态赤字,生态足迹压力增幅明显,从临界安全状态发展到不安全状态;资源利用效率不高与生态安全指标之间呈现一种长期稳定的趋势,这表明岩溶区广西的资源利用效率不高,生态安全形势不容乐观,需要及时采取应对策略与措施加以调控。     

唐山市经济与环境发展的适应性评价

经济与环境关系的研究日益受到重视,因此,探究经济系统是否适应环境系统非常必要.适应性研究强调人类系统对气候和环境变化的反应和调整,而经济行为是人类主动适应环境系统的集中表现,体现了人地系统的相互作用关系.本文选择典型资源型城市——唐山市,研究了其1992—2011年间经济发展与环境变化的适应性及表现.结果表明： 研究期间,唐山市经济-环境系统的适应力曲线总体呈波动上升趋势,即系统适应能力不断增强,表明唐山在进行经济生产的同时,加强了对环境质量的重视,经济发展与生态环境的关系逐步协调.应用Eviews软件对适应性曲线进行滤波分析,发现经济-环境系统的潜在协调指数不断提升,但20年适应力的缺口总和为负数,暗示高经济增长与高能源消耗、高污染排放的根本矛盾仍然存在.进行适应性研究有利于适应者更好地主动适应环境变化,也对丰富经济与环境的协调和可持续研究具有重要意义.     

基于能值和数据包络分析的城市复合生态系统生态效率评估

生态效率是定量分析生态系统中社会、环境、经济投入与产出关系的有效工具,对量化城市复合生态系统的可持续发展水平起着重要作用。本文综合能值分析和数据包络分析方法,构建新的能值评价指标和新的城市复合生态系统生态效率度量模型指标,并以沈阳为例,从城市能值流和生态效率角度分析城市系统资源、环境、经济的可持续发展情况。结果表明:2000—2010年,沈阳市生态效率呈现波动上升的变化,能值产出率呈波动下降后缓慢上升趋势;环境负载率上升趋势明显,城市发展面临的资源压力不断增大。沈阳市在今后的城市生态系统建设中,应着重优化能源利用结构,提高不可更新资源利用率,促进废弃物资源化利用,全面推动城市可持续发展。     

银川市城市生态经济系统的物质流分析

运用物质流分析法对银川市2006-2012 年生态经济系统中的物质流进行分析。结果显示, (1)不含水的物质输入与输出总量均呈先减后增的趋势。物质输入以气体和固体为主, 其中固体物质主要以化石燃料、矿物和建筑材料的增加最为明显; 物质输出端主要以气体为主, 其中化石燃料燃烧废气排放量和工业废气(二氧化硫、工业烟粉尘)排放量在总气体排放中所占的量最多。固体废弃物的增加, 也加大了研究区的环境压力。(2)水输入量波动下降, 水输出量不断上升。农业用水和工业用水约占总用水量的98%, 农业用水量在不断下降, 工业用水量和生态用水量在不断上升; 废水排放以工业污水为主。(3)从整体来看, 物质利用强度和输出强度在缓慢降低, 银川市经济发展一方面依靠大量的资源投入, 另一方面, 环境污染的压力在迅速减轻; 单位产值的物质消耗量在减少, 废弃物的输出效率明显提高, 银川市资源利用效率在稳定提高。     

厦门市生态经济系统物质流分析

运用物质流分析(MFA)方法和STIRPAT模型,对1996～2007年厦门生态经济系统物质输入与输出进行分析,结果表明:(1)在不考虑水的情况下,物质输入与输出不断增加(年均增长率分别为11.48%、11.41%),但均小于GDP增长速度(15.94%),二者成正比;物质流增长集中表现在对金属、非金属矿物的需求及化石燃料燃烧废气、工业废气的排放.(2)用水量和废水排放量均不断增加,尤以生活污水排放量增长速度较快,加重了区域环境的压力.(3)物质输入与GDP、物质输出与GDP呈良好线性关系.厦门经济发展很大程度上依赖资源消耗.(4)单位GDP物质输入与输出均不断减小,表明资源利用率、处置率明显提高,区域逐步走向生态环境与社会经济的协调发展.(5)构建了厦门物质输入驱动机制的STIRPAT模型,得出人口数量、富裕程度、技术水平或经济结构每分别发生1%的变化,将引起输入量相应发生0.99%、0.98%、0.17%、0.31%的变化.提升技术水平和优化经济结构具有较大调控空间,将是厦门物质减量化战略的实施重点.     

四川省农业生态系统能值评价及动态计量分析

农业生态系统是人类生存的最基本系统,对其结构和功能进行分析是破解农业生态环境问题的关键.本文应用能值分析理论并借助数据包络分析法、协整检验、误差修正模型等经济计量方法,对1997-2009年四川省及其21个地级市农业生态系统的运行动态、环境承载情况、运行效率、投入产出关系进行定量分析.结果表明： 研究期间,四川省处在由传统农业向现代农业过渡阶段,农业机械化水平不断提高,资源利用效率不断加强,结构优势度总体情况较好,而过度依赖经济能值的投入使系统可持续性能力逐年减弱;区域间农业生态系统发展状况的差异较大,成都平原区和川西高原区要么资源开发过度,要么资源利用不足,而四川丘陵地区农业生态系统富有活力和发展潜力,属于四川农业未来发展的重点区域;四川省农业生态系统总体运行效率较低,各地状况不一,既包括技术效率较低因素,也有规模不当的原因;四川省农业生态系统经济能值指标与产出能值之间存在长期均衡动态关系,但短期内的能值投入远未达到理想的产出状态.     

基于数据包络分析的江苏省水资源利用效率

采用水足迹理论分析江苏省2000-2010年水资源的真实利用情况,同时从投入产出的角度出发,选取农业用水量、工业用水量、生活用水量、COD排放总量、固定资产投资总额和从业人员数作为投入指标,GDP和粮食产量作为产出指标,运用数据包络分析中的C2R和BC2模型对这11a间江苏省的水资源利用效率进行评价.研究表明:2010年江苏省的水足迹为778.28m3,总体呈缓慢上升趋势.农业用水、工业用水和虚拟水贸易是江苏省水资源利用中的主要组成部分.11a间DEA有效年份占64％,投入冗余和产出不足均为0,即投入和产出达到最优状态.在DEA无效年份中存在冗余,存在资源浪费和污染高排放的情况.可以通过DEA投影结果对其进行改进,实现资源的最优配置.     

Material flow analysis (MFA) of an eco-economic system:a case study of Wujin District,Changzhou,China

The economic and ecological aspects of a social system are coherently linked and can be examined by its material and energy flows.In this study,we used the material flow analysis (MFA) to model the material input and output of the Wujin District of Changzhou City,Jiangsu Province in China.It was revealed that:(1) total material input and material input per capita increased with economic development,while the total material out-put and material output per capita decreased consistently;(2) except for water,the total material input continued to increase.Input of solid materials grew faster than that of gaseous materials,while the total material output declined.The gas output accounted for the largest pro-portion of the output resulting in primary environmental pollution as burned fossil fuel; (3) water use in agriculture continued with an increasing trend while that in industrial and residential sectors decreased per capita.The total wastewater discharge and wastewater discharge per capita decreased with a faster decreasing rate of residential was-tewater discharge followed by industrial wastewater dis-charge; (4) material input per unit GDP fluctuated and material output per unit GDP decreased.A decreasing trend in both water use and wastewater discharge per unit GDP was disclosed.These results suggest that the effi-ciency of resource use in the Wujin District has improved.This weakened the direct link between economic develop-ment and environmental deterioration.Additionally,we discussed the harmonic development between environ-ment and economy.Potential limitations of MFA's application were also discussed.It is suggested that effec-tive measures should be taken for the enforcement of cir-cular economic strategies and the construction of a resource-saving economy     

Material flow analysis (MFA) of an eco-economic system: a case study of Wujin District, Changzhou, China

The economic and ecological aspects of a social system are coherently linked and can be examined by its material and energy flows. In this study, we used the material flow analysis (MFA) to model the material input and output of the Wujin District of Changzhou City, Jiangsu Province in China. It was revealed that: (1) total material input and material input per capita increased with economic development, while the total material output and material output per capita decreased consistently; (2) except for water, the total material input continued to increase. Input of solid materials grew faster than that of gaseous materials, while the total material output declined. The gas output accounted for the largest proportion of the output resulting in primary environmental pollution as burned fossil fuel; (3) water use in agriculture continued with an increasing trend while that in industrial and residential sectors decreased per capita. The total wastewater discharge and wastewater discharge per capita decreased with a faster decreasing rate of residential wastewater discharge followed by industrial wastewater discharge; (4) material input per unit GDP fluctuated and material output per unit GDP decreased. A decreasing trend in both water use and wastewater discharge per unit GDP was disclosed. These results suggest that the efficiency of resource use in the Wujin District has improved. This weakened the direct link between economic development and environmental deterioration. Additionally, we discussed the harmonic development between environment and economy. Potential limitations of MFA’s application were also discussed. It is suggested that effective measures should be taken for the enforcement of circular economic strategies and the construction of a resource-saving economy __________ Translated from Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2006, (8): 2578–2586 [译自:生态学报]     

Materials Metabolism Analysis of China's Highway Traffic System (HTS) for Promoting Circular Economy

With the rapid growth of highway mileage and vehicles, the Chinese highway traffic system (HTS) has become one of the great resource consumers. This article attempts to evaluate the material metabolism of China's HTS during 2001–2005 using the approach of material flow analysis (MFA) and to explore possible measures to promote circular economy throughout HTS. We measured a set of indicators to illustrate the whole material metabolism of China's HTS. The results indicated that the direct material input (DMI) of China's HTS increased from 1181.26 million tonnes (Mt) in 2001 to 1,874.57 Mt in 2005, and about 80% of DMI was accumulated in the system as infrastructure and vehicles. The domestic processed output (DPO) increased by 59.0% from 2001 to 2005. Carbon dioxide and solid waste accounted for 80.5% and 10.4% of DPO, respectively. The increase of resource consumption and pollutant emissions kept pace with the growth of transportation turnover. All these suggest that China's HTS still followed an extensive linear developing pattern with large resource consumption and heavy pollution emissions during the study period, which brought great challenges to the resources and the environment. Therefore, it's high time for China to implement a circular economy throughout the HTS by instituting resource and energy savings, by reducing emissions in the field of infrastructure construction and maintenance, by reducing vehicles’ energy and materials consumption, and by recycling waste materials.     

基于物质流分析方法的生态海岛建设研究——以长海县为例

建设生态海岛是海岛生态经济系统实现可持续发展的重要途径。运用物质流分析方法对长海县的物质输入与输出状况进行计算,并用物质消耗强度、废物排放强度和环境负荷强度3个指标衡量了该海岛县生态效率的变化,分析了技术进步对海岛生态经济系统生态压力变化的贡献状况。结果表明,2003—2009年间,长海县物质输入总量、物质输出总量和环境负荷总量呈增长态势;生态效率明显提高;技术进步对减轻海岛生态经济系统生态压力的贡献没有抵消经济增长所产生的生态压力的增加量。为了减少物质输入和废物输出,减轻经济活动对海岛生态系统产生的压力,建立创新型管理机制有效促进技术进步,不断提高生态效率具有特别重要的作用。     

The Characteristics and Trends of Socioeconomic Metabolism in China

China has become the country with the largest resource use and has high levels of waste emissions that pose a great management challenge. To provide more details about environmental problems and to find effective solutions, this article analyzed the scale, structure, and trend of the socioeconomic metabolism in China during the period 1992–2014 based on economy‐wide material flow accounts (EW‐MFA), and predicted resource use during the period of the 13th Five‐Year Plan. The results of this study show that the scale of China's socioeconomic metabolism in China increased more than twofold, during 1992–2014. However, after 2011, with the economic slowdown, the growth rates of total material requirement (TMR), direct material input (DMI), and domestic processed output (DPO) began to decrease. China may reach an inflection point, but this point will probably not be approached before the year 2020. Material recycling (MR) has played an important role in improving resource productivity, improving it by 92.52 renminbi per tonne in 2014. Metallic minerals and fossil fuels are the main sources of hidden flow. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, construction waste, and agricultural emissions have become the major sources of DPO. Because of the 13th Five‐Year Plan, China may slow the growth rate of DMI and may save 10.26 gigatonnes of resources during 2015–2020. Resource productivity is predicted to increase by 15.91%. Imports and MR may play more important roles. These suggestions are made: (1) strengthening the recycling system; (2) stronger policies, especially in metallic mineral and fossil fuels; (3) developing management systems for CO₂ emissions, construction waste, and agricultural emissions; and (4) adjusting China's economic structure.     

基于MFA和DEA的区域经济环境效率评价-以辽宁省为例

对经济与环境效率的科学评价是实现区域可持续发展的前提。运用物质流分析将辽宁省经济系统中数据进行物质化处理,再利用改进的数据包络分析模型对环境和经济效率进行综合评价。结果表明:辽宁省物资消费不主要依赖于进口,向其它地区物质输出量大;环境效率评价的综合效率主要受规模因素影响而显著低于纯技术效率,而整体经济的综合效率却主要受纯技术效率影响而下降。第二产业比重依然偏大的产业结构特征是导致上述结果的主因。进一步改造提升传统产业,发展战略性新兴产业,提高第三产业发展水平,扩大环保规模,促进居民生活质量水平全面提升,将是辽宁省以及与之相似的资源依赖型区域可持续发展的方向。