Forecasting barley mildew development in West Scotland

Observations on plots of spring barley cv. Golden Promise during May-July 1973–79 showed that escalation of mildew commenced in mid-June 1976, in late June in 1973 and 1974, in early July in 1978 and 1979, and failed to develop in 1975 and 1977. By mid-July there was 40% infection in 1976, and 13–21% infection in 1973, 1974, 1978 and 1979. Less than 2% mildew occurred in 1975 and 1977. Using as a basis the method of mildew forecasting formulated by Polley & King (1973), it was found that once mildew was established in the crop there was moderately good association between the incidence of high mildew risk according to the Polley weather criteria and the major peaks of spore concentration above the crops. It was not possible to correlate these two features during May and early June each year because of a lack of inoculum, but it is considered that the failure of mildew to develop during the entire growing seasons of 1975 and 1977, in spite of frequent high risk periods, was due in part to low atmospheric humidity during the early part of the season. The relative number of accumulated Polley factors satisfied on days when the relative humidity approx. 1 m above ground was 78% or more (at 0900 GMT) during the period mid-May to mid-June, separated the low mildew years of 1975 and 1977 from the moderate ones of 1973, 1974, 1978 and 1979, and the severe mildew year of 1976. This procedure may provide a practical means of forecasting the level of mildew build-up during the later growth stages of the barley crop.     

Life cycle, production, microdistribution and diet of the damselfly Euphaea decorata (Odonata: Euphaeidae) in a Hong Kong forest stream

Euphaea decorata in Tai Po Kau Forest Stream (Hong Kong) was univoltine. Most recruitment took place in summer, and larval growth proceeded throughout the year. Life-cycles recorded in 1977–78 and 1978–79 were similar. Annual production estimates, using the removal-summation, instantaneous growth and size-frequency methods, were more similar for the 1978–79 generation (ranging from 158.7–174.7; mean 1671 mg dry wt m^-2) than for the 1977–78 generation (93.9-173-6; mean 131.7 mg dry wt m^-2). Mean biomass was similar for both generations (ranging from 33.5–33.9 mg dry wt m^-2), and mean P/B ratios were 3.9 1977–78) and 5.0 (1978–79). These are the first estimates of annual production by an Oriental stream insect.
Larvae were most abundant at microsites in the middle of the stream. Multiple regression analysis indicated that substratum characteristics were a major determinant of microdistribution. Euphaea decorata apparently favoured poorly-sorted sediments with highly peaked grain size-frequency distributions, containing few fine particles.
The carnivorous larvae showed ontogenetic changes in diet. Small individuals consumed mainly chironomid (Diptera) larvae; the diet expanded to include (successively) larvae of Ephemeroptera and Trichoptera as E. decorata grew. Seasonal changes in diet were also apparent, although larval diets during spring and summer were similar. There was also considerable overlap between autumn and winter diets. Ontogenetic influences upon prey consumed were not sufficient to account for the observed seasonal differences.     

Fish stock assessments in Lake Konnevesi

In 1977, the average fish yield in the oligotrophic and oligohumic lake Konnevesi was 6.4 kg ha^–1 (2.6 kg vendace, 1.3 kg perch, 0.7 kg whitefish, 0.5 kg roach, 0.3 kg pike and 0.3 kg burbot). In that year the stock of vendace was exceptionally poor. A study was made to determine the optimum strategy for exploiting the stocks. The field work included test fishing (1970–78), sampling of catches (1977–80) and collection of catch per unit effort data (1978–80), and catch statistics (1969, 1970, 1977). The stocks were assessed by the Beverton and Holt method. Whitefish is exploited at a proper level. Fishing of vendace and roach can be increased, and the yield of pike would be greater, if the recruiting age were higher than at present.     

Use of Growth Indices in Markov Chain Models for Crop Yield Forecasting

An improved Markov chain model has been developed for forecasting of sugarcane yields in which growth indices of biometrical characters based on data from two stages simultaneously have been utilised. Comparisons were also made with the models in use viz. the regression model and the first order Markov chain model.     

Global evaluation of a semiempirical model for yield anomalies and application to within‐season yield forecasting

Quantifying the influence of weather on yield variability is decisive for agricultural management under current and future climate anomalies. We extended an existing semiempirical modeling scheme that allows for such quantification. Yield anomalies, measured as interannual differences, were modeled for maize, soybeans, and wheat in the United States and 32 other main producer countries. We used two yield data sets, one derived from reported yields and the other from a global yield data set deduced from remote sensing. We assessed the capacity of the model to forecast yields within the growing season. In the United States, our model can explain at least two‐thirds (63%–81%) of observed yield anomalies. Its out‐of‐sample performance (34%–55%) suggests a robust yield projection capacity when applied to unknown weather. Out‐of‐sample performance is lower when using remote sensing‐derived yield data. The share of weather‐driven yield fluctuation varies spatially, and estimated coefficients agree with expectations. Globally, the explained variance in yield anomalies based on the remote sensing data set is similar to the United States (71%–84%). But the out‐of‐sample performance is lower (15%–42%). The performance discrepancy is likely due to shortcomings of the remote sensing yield data as it diminishes when using reported yield anomalies instead. Our model allows for robust forecasting of yields up to 2 months before harvest for several main producer countries. An additional experiment suggests moderate yield losses under mean warming, assuming no major changes in temperature extremes. We conclude that our model can detect weather influences on yield anomalies and project yields with unknown weather. It requires only monthly input data and has a low computational demand. Its within‐season yield forecasting capacity provides a basis for practical applications like local adaptation planning. Our study underlines high‐quality yield monitoring and statistics as critical prerequisites to guide adaptation under climate change.     

Sex ratio and adult behaviour of the Antarctic midge Belgica antarctica (Diptera, Chironomklae)

Abstract. 1. The sex ratio in populations of the Antarctic chironomid Belgica antarctica approximates 1:1 at eclosion.
2. Male predominance in surface populations of the short-lived adult persists throughout the summer. The mean ratio, based on data from surface aggregations (austral summer 1977–78) and from sticky traps (1978–79) is about 6:1, with a steady seasonal decline from 10–20:1 to 2–5:1.
3. Males live slightly longer than females but the difference does not account for observed ratios.
4. Samples of adult populations taken from subsurface sites have sex ratios nearer to equality than surface populations.
5. It is concluded that the male-dominated surface populations are equivalent to the male swarms typical of winged Chironomidae.
6. Capture of airborne adults shows that aerial transport as well as water-surface rafting may play a role in dispersal of adults.     

Uptake of phosphate and inorganic nitrogen by a sediment-algal system in a subarctic lake

SUMMARY.

• 1 The uptake of phosphate and inorganic nitrogen by sediment and phytoplankton was studied under natural conditions (1977) and during lake fertilization with phosphorus and nitrogen (1978–79) in Lake Gunillajaure, a small, stratified, subarctic lake in northern Sweden. The experiments were performed in situ in plexiglass cylinders, to which additions of nutrients were made, and the uptake followed by consecutive sampling and analysis of the water phase.
• 2 Additions of HgCl₂ to the experimental vessels reduced the phosphate uptake to the sediment to less than 10% and it could therefore be concluded that the sediment uptake was mainly of biological nature.
• 3 Dark assimilation was 30–40% of that in light. Since light clearly stimulated the sediment uptake the epipelic algae were probably responsible.
• 4 The phosphate uptake to the sediment could be described by Michaelis-Menten kinetics and the calculated constants (V_max, ks) were very alike in 1977 and 1978 but appeared to have increased in 1979.
• 5 The sediment uptake of ammonium and nitrate was very slow indrcating that the epipelic algae were not nitrogen starved.
• 6 Even though the epipelic algae had a potential for efficient uptake of phosphorus, the phytoplankton took up 92–96% of the phosphate added to the lake on each fertilization occasion due to the relatively large water volume in the epilimnion in relation to the bottom area available for the epipelic algae.

     

The timing and duration of moult in adult Starlings Sturnus vulgaris in east-central England

The timing and duration of primary moult were estimated for wild adult Starlings Sturnus vulgaris near Monks Wood in 1977-78, and for captive birds in 1999. The model of Underhill and Zucchini (1988) was modified to allow for a non-linear increase in the moult score, based on scores of captive birds. For wild birds, estimates of moult duration in 1977 and 1978 were 100 days and 98 days, with mean and standard deviation in start dates of 6 June and 7.3 days in 1977, and 2 June and 9.7 days in 1978. For captive birds, moult duration was 85 days, with mean and standard deviation of 31 May and 4.1 days. Differences between these estimates and those reported for other wild and captive Starling populations are discussed.     

Frequency of under- and overweight among children and adolescents during the economic transition in Poland

The aim of this study is to examine the prevalence of underweight, overweight and obesity, using International Obesity Task Force (IOTF) criteria, in four cohorts of children and adolescents living in Poland in different economic eras: communist economy (1977/1978), crisis of the 1980s (1987/1988), political and economic transformation (1992/1994) and the free market economy (2002/2004). Analysis was conducted on a database including 10,934 records for children of the age 7–18 years. In Poland, in the last 26 years of economic and political transformations, the epidemic of obesity was not noticed but the growing incidence of children and adolescents with body mass deficit was observed (p < 0.0001) (20.2% of girls in 2002/2004 vs. 11.0% in 1977/1978 and 12.1% of boys in 2002/2004 vs. 7.2% in 1977/1978). Lower parental education and a higher number of children in a family resulted in a higher prevalence of underweight (odds ratio [OR] fluctuated from 1.26 to 1.63). The social effects of the political transformation in Poland significantly affected families with low socio-economic status (SES), and especially more eco-sensitive boys. This result is opposite to the trends observed in Western countries and makes an important contribution to the current knowledge of the course of further changes in weight-to-height ratio at a global scale.     

LONG-TERM TRENDS IN ABUNDANCE AND DISTRIBUTION OF MANATEES (TRICHECHUS MANATUS) IN THE NORTHERN BANANA RIVER, BREVARD COUNTY, FLORIDA

Four aerial survey projects were conducted between 1977 and 1986 to determine the abundance, density and distribution of West Indian manatees (Trichechus manatus), in the northern Banana River, Kennedy Space Center, Florida. Manatee density and distribution within selected portions of the 78.5 km² study area were determined. Peak numbers of manatees occurred in spring of each year. The maximum counts increased from 56 in 1978 to 297 in 1986. Manatee abundance was lowest in the winter of each year. Mean density per flight increased from 0.52 manatees/km2 in 1977–78 to 2.73/km² in 1984–86. This increase may reflect increases in the east coast population or shifts in the population distribution. Distributional changes were observed in the study area through time, with a lower percentage of manatees occurring in industrial areas and a correspondingly higher percentage of manatees in nonindustrial areas by 1985.     

Forecasting yield of corn,Zea mays infested with corn leaf aphid,Rhopalosiphum maidis

Abstract: Corn leaf aphid, Rhopalosiphum maidis (Fitch) is one of the most serious corn pests in Egypt. The aim of the present study is to assess the corn yield losses and to build forecasting models of yield related with aphid infestation. Number of aphids/plant were determined during corn growth stages 10 leaves (V10); tasseling (VT); ripening 2 (R2) and ripening 4 (R4). At the end of growing season, yield losses were estimated. Results revealed that infestation with aphids through V10–VT caused 28.14% yield losses at average aphid density 818 aphid/plant. Infestation through R2–R4 caused 16.28% yield losses at average aphid density 1038 aphids/plant. Percentages of yield losses of corn ears through V10–R4 were 14.66, 22.9, 35.28 and 36.03% at average aphid density of 100, 1000, 2000 and 3000 aphids/plant. As ear yield negatively correlated with aphid density, regression analysis was used to construct forecasting yield models. Statistical analysis showed that simple linear and logarithmic models provided a good fit to the data and also indicated that the two models are similar in prediction of ear yield. These constructed models were diagnostic checked using new data. The checking revealed that the linear model is stable and valid where insignificant difference was observed between predicted and actual yield.     

Antibodies to Corynebacterium Pseudotuberculosis in Adult Goats from a Naturally Infected Herd

Serum samples taken in 3 successive years (1977, 1978 and 1979) from adult dairy goats (Norwegian breed) originating from 1 herd were examined for antibodies to Gorynebacterium pseudotuberculosis. Both bacterial agglutination test (BAT) and hemolysis inhibition test (HIT) were used. The proportion of seropositive goats increased 10–12 % during the investigation period. In 1979 all animals were seropositive to BAT and about 95 % had antihemolysins in their sera. Twenty-two of the 23 one-year old goats recruited to the herd in 1978 were seropositive. The average age-specific titres increased up to the age of 3 years, and subsequently decreased for goats aged 4–7 years. Caseous lymphadenitis is thus regarded as a chronic infection. The effect of age on the titre values was significant at the 5 % level in 1977 and 1978 when HIT was used and in 1978 when BAT was used. During the investigation period the same 36 and 40 goats were examined every year by BAT and HIT, respectively. Intermediate to high correlations between titre values for the same goats from year to year were found. Both BAT and HIT are suitable for sero-epidemiological investigations concerning infection with G. pseudotuberculosis in goats.     

A Tipula paludosa population with a high incidence of two pathogens

The incidence of lethal parasites in the larvae of a Tipula paludosa population was monitored for two seasons. The proportions of larvae infected with Tipula iridescent virus (TIV) and a tachinid insect were similar to those in previously studied populations, whereas the proportions of larvae infected with Tipula nuclear polyhedrosis virus (NPV) and a spore-forming bacterium (SFB) were higher. Conservative estimates of mortality due to these four agents were 10.7% in 1977–1978 and 7.7% in 1978–1979. The mean population density and the proportion of SFB-infected larvae were lower in 1978–1979 than in 1977–1978, while the proportion of NPV-infected larvae was higher. In 1979 the proportion of NPV-infected larvae was positively correlated with population density, which was highest in the wettest part of the study area. In both seasons the proportion of SFB-infected larvae was negatively correlated with population density. Larvae infected with the NPV or the SFB became pallid at an advanced stage of infection, but, although infected larvae were found throughout the larval period, pallid larvae were only found in the later part. It is suggested that larvae become infected in an early instar, then the infections slowly develop throughout the remainder of the larval period. Five larvae were found with mixed infections; four were infected with the SFB and NPV, while the fifth was infected with the SFB and TIV.     

Effects of Elasmopalpus lignosellus (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) damage on sugarcane yield

Feeding by lesser cornstalk borer, Elasmopalpus lignosellus (Zeller) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), larvae on sugarcane (a complex hybrid of Saccharum spp.) causes leaf damage, dead hearts, and dead plants that can result in stand and yield loss. A 2-yr greenhouse experiment was conducted to examine sugarcane variety and plant age-specific feeding responses to E. lignosellus. Plants growing from single-eye setts of three varieties were exposed to a single generation of E. lignosellus larvae beginning at the three-, five-, and seven-leaf stages. Results indicated that the physical damage and resulting yield loss of plants attacked by E. lignosellus larvae were dependent on the variety and leaf stage at which they were infested. Significantly more plant damage was observed in all three varieties when infested at the three- than at the seven-leaf stage. Larvae caused significantly more plant damage and reduced yield in CP 89-2143 than in CP 78-1628. Tiller production increased in CP78-1628 and CP 88-1762 when infested at the three-leaf stage, whereas tiller production, biomass and sugar yield decreased in CP 89-2143 when infested at all leaf stages, compared with the untreated control. There was no reduction in yield when CP 78-1628 was infested at the three- or five-leaf stages. Biomass was reduced in CP 88-1762 when plants were infested at any of the leaf stages, but sugar yield was reduced only when infested at the seven-leaf stage. These results indicate that compensation in response to E. lignosellus damage was variety dependent and declined with the delay in infestation time.     

Treatment of seed and ware potato tubers with thiabendazole for control of storage diseases

In March 1977 and 1978 King Edward seed potatoes from three commercial stocks and one stock derived from stem cuttings (healthier seed) were treated with thiabendazole at 320 g a.i./t and 46% of the material applied was deposited on tubers. Seed was stored on trays to sprout and in April samples were planted in replicated plots on two farms in Lincolnshire. Treatment did not consistently affect numbers of stemslplant or total yields but decreased infection of underground stems by Polyscytalum pustulans and Rhizoctonia solani and of tubers at harvest by P. pustulans, R. solani and Helminthosporium solani. In samples stored for 20 wk at Sutton Bridge Experimental Station seed treatment decreased the incidence of skin spot from 25 to 4%, of black scurf from 36 to 20% but had less effect on silver scurf (untreated 52% tubers, treated 47%) and did not affect the incidence of black dot (Colletotrichum coccodes) on stored tubers. In another series of experiments 1 t samples of seed from six King Edward stocks (1977) and four King Edward and one Maris Piper stocks (1978), collected from different farms in Lincolnshire in March, were treated with thiabendazole at 40 g a.i./t. Tubers retained 48% of the material applied. The treated seed was planted on the respective farms in a single large plot adjacent to untreated seed similarly stored and sprouted. Seed treatment significantly decreased the incidence of skin spot, black scurf, silver scurf and gangrene in tubers stored at Sutton Bridge in 1977–78. After lifting the experiment in 1978 samples from treated and untreated seed were treated with thiabendazole (40 g a.i./t) before storage (ware treatment). Skin spot was decreased more by seed treatment than ware treatment whereas silver scurf was controlled best by ware treatment. Incidence of black dot was not consistently affected by seed or ware treatment.     

Population forecasting model of Nilaparvata lugens and Sogatella furcifera (Homoptera: Delphacidae) based on Markov chain theory

Nilaparvata lugens (St?l) and Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) are the two most important long-distance migratory insect pests that cause great yield losses to rice in China. Accurate long-term population forecast is needed to implement effective management strategies for these two rice pests. In this paper, a transition probability matrix of 5-yr steps of Markov chain theory was constructed based on 31-yr light-trapping data of the two pests from 1977 to 2007 in Jiangkou County, Guizhou, China. The weight of each step for the transition probability matrix was calculated according to its prediction accuracy. Insect occurrence levels in the sixth year were predicted based on the occurrences of the previous 5 yr. Nonparametric Wilcoxon paired sample tests showed that there were no significant differences between the actual and predicted occurrences for both N. lugens and S. furcifera. In addition, the models accurately forecasted field occurrence in 2008 in Jinangkou County for both species. The results showed that the Markov models developed in this study offer an effective method for long-term population forecasting of N. lugens and S. furcifera and thus provide plant protection agencies and organizations with valuable information in implementing appropriate management strategies for these two devastating rice pests in Jiangkou and neighboring areas.     

Partial recovery and a new population estimate of rhesus monkey populations in India

The purpose of this field study has been to assess major changes in rhesus monkey populations of north central India over a period of 28 yrs from 1959 to 1986. Population censuses have been done in Aligarh District three times per year, and extensive regional surveys were done in 1959–1960, 1964–1965, 1977–1978, and 1985–1986. Throughout the 1960s and 1970s, rhesus populations in India declined more than 90%, from an estimated 2 million animals in 1960 to approximately 180,000 by 1980. These declines were attributed to increasing agricultural pressures in India, loss of primate habitats, less protection for monkeys, and high levels of trapping. In the 1970s, as India's agricultural production rose and stronger wildlife conservation programs developed, local populations of rhesus began to increase. These increases became more prominent after 1978, when India imposed a ban on export of monkeys. By 1985 a population in Aligarh District had returned to its 1960 level in total population size, although the number of groups remained low. Other local populations showed even more striking growth and greatly exceeded former levels. Some areas of India, however, have shown no improvement in rhesus populations. Overall, extensive field surveys of rural habitats in 1985–1986 showed a 53% recovery in the number of rhesus groups, and a 129% recovery in total rhesus from their low points in 1977–1978. We estimate the rhesus population of India in 1985 in the vicinity of 410,000–460,000 individuals.     

Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) production by Bacillus cereus SPV using sugarcane molasses as the main carbon source

The main hindrance in the use of polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs) as a replacement for existing petroleum-based plastics is their high production cost. The carbon source accounts for 50% of the cost for PHA production. Thus, increasing the yield and productivity of PHAs on cheap substrates is an important challenge for biotechnologists to support the commercialization and further applications of these polymers. In this study, we have investigated the use of an agricultural raw material, sugarcane molasses, as the main carbon source for poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) (P(3HB)) production by Bacillus cereus SPV. These studies were carried out in both shaken flasks and 2 L bioreactors. Various conditions were evaluated for their effects on biomass and P(3HB) accumulation. A high polymer yield was obtained, 61.07% dry cell weight (DCW) in a 1 L shaken flask study and 51.37% DCW in a 2 L fermenter study. These yields are 50% higher than previously observed with Bacillus cereus SPV. Hence, the results are encouraging and show that sugarcane molasses are a promising carbon source for an economical and commercially viable production of P(3HB).     

保护地蔗田对土壤优先流与根系生物量及产量品质的影响

为探明保护性耕作对蔗田土壤及甘蔗生长的影响,该研究设置2种耕作方式(常规耕作、粉垄耕作)与2种施肥水平(减量施肥20%、常规施肥),并于甘蔗苗期后在甘蔗行间近根部覆盖豆科秸秆,以第二年宿根蔗为研究对象,采用染色示踪法测定秸秆覆盖下蔗田土壤优先流特征,同时测定分析甘蔗株高、茎围、地下根系生物量、产量及品质等重要农艺性状。结果表明:(1)粉垄耕作方式下蔗田土壤优先流发生速度快且活跃,添加秸秆覆盖降低了土壤优先流发生程度,增加了土壤水分在10～25 cm土层的横向运移能力,在一定程度上提高了土壤蓄水能力。(2)粉垄保护性耕作在秸秆覆盖下提高了甘蔗根系生物量和产量,秸秆覆盖下粉垄免耕宿根蔗根系生物量提高了8.97%～25.54%,并且减量施肥处理中秸秆覆盖宿根蔗伸长期地下根系生物量显著高于无秸秆覆盖,秸秆覆盖下甘蔗株高提高了4.2%～13.1%; 在减量施肥处理中,粉垄耕作添加秸秆覆盖甘蔗产量提高了16.27%,并且添加秸秆覆盖较常规施肥中无秸秆覆盖,产量提高了5.95%。(3)粉垄保护性耕作利于提高甘蔗品质,对比无秸秆覆盖处理,粉垄耕作下秸秆覆盖后显著提高了甘蔗蔗汁视纯度,并且宿根蔗纤维分、蔗汁锤度、转光度和蔗糖分均有提升。综上认为,免耕秸秆覆盖可作为粉垄红壤坡耕地蔗田保护性生产调控方式。     

Évolution du taux de présence de spermatophore chez les femelles de Nephrops norvegicus (L.) (Decapoda:Reptantia) et développement ovarien

Ovary development and the presence of spermatophore in females of Nephrops norvegiens (L.) (Nephropidae) from South Brittany were studied from July 1976 to October 1978 through size classes. Percentage of females bearing spermatophores increased slowly up to 1978 during which year a sudden and important decrease was observed. The percentage decreased to the lowest value obtained in 1976. A study of ovarian development showed that the proportion of small females taking part in reproduction was greater in 1978 than in 1977.The beginning of the decrease in the percentage of spermatophores present coincided with the beginning of spawning in each size class. It may be explained by the behaviour of ovigerous females which stay in burrows during the incubation season. The decrease is, however, very important as the proportion of mature females is high and because the time separating the autumn moulting from spawning is great.Spawning occurred in several months (4 months in 1978). The “mean size at first maturity” varied from year to year and also from month to month, even if the presence of spermatophores was taken as a criterion.