Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the spatial distribution of zonal forest communities in Switzerland

Abstract. A spatially explicit, climate-sensitive vegetation model is presented to simulate both present and future distribution of potential natural vegetation types in Switzerland at the level of zonal forest communities. The model has two versions: (1) a ‘basic’ version using geographical region, aspect, bedrock (represented by soil pH), and elevation, and (2) a ‘climate-sensitive’ version obtained by replacing elevation (complex environmental gradient) with temperature (climatic factor). Version 2 is used to predict vegetation response under different (today's and projected) climatic conditions. Two regional climate scenarios are applied: (1) assuming an annual mean temperature increase of 1.1 — 1.4 °C, and (2) assuming an increase of 2.2 — 2.75 °C. Both scenarios result in significant changes of the spatial vegetation patterns as compared with today's climatic conditions. In scenario 1, ca. 33 % of the sample points remain unchanged in terms of the simulated zonal forest community; in scenario 2, virtually all sample points change. The most noticeable changes occur on the Swiss Plateau with Carpinion forests (zonal vegetation of present colline belt) expanding to areas that are occupied today by submontane and low-montane Fagus forests. To estimate the reliability of the simulation, quantitative (comparison with field mapping) and qualitative (comparison with climate types in the Alpine region) tests are performed and the main limitations of the approach are evaluated.     

Importance of soil nutrients in the distribution of forest communities on a large geographical scale

Aim Soil nutrient content plays a key role in plant growth through mineral nutrition and toxicity. Its impact on plant species and community distribution is studied on a large geographical scale through surrogates like topography or geology. We investigated the importance of soil pH and C:N ratio, as direct nutritional gradients, to determine, with climatic factors, the spatial distribution of plant communities over large territories. Location We studied the distribution of six beech habitats of the NATURA 2000 network throughout France (550,000 km²). Methods Models were calibrated with 2108 floristic plots classified in the NATURA 2000 system and including climatic and topographic variables and soil nutritional measurements carried out in a laboratory. Logistic regression was used to model habitat distribution according to environmental variables. Climatic layers, a digital elevation model and maps of soil pH and nitrogen content, created using plant indicator values and large floristic databases, were used to map the sites suitable for beech communities. Distribution models were evaluated with an independent set of 2091 phytosociological plots. Results pH and nitrogen supply were the key distribution drivers for four of the six beech communities on a national scale. Their use in the distribution models distinguished within homogeneous climatic territories a gradient of nutritional conditions from acidic areas, suitable for nutrient‐poor beech communities, to calcareous areas suitable for nutrient‐rich ones. Predicted maps of beech habitats fit the spatial distribution of validation plots. Main conclusions Soil pH and nitrogen supply strongly improve predictions of forest community distribution carried out with climatic variables on a broad geographical scale. They allow delineation of areas with nutritional conditions suitable for each community, as well as the realization of predictive high‐resolution maps over large areas useful for sustainable and conservation management. Nomenclature Tutin & Heywood (2001 ) Flora Europaea. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.     

中国主要森林群落植物生活型谱的数量分类及空间分布格局的研究

采用Ｃ．Ｒａｕｎｋｉａｅｒ的生活型分类系统,对我国主要森林群落的生活谱资料进行整理,编制了全国划分标准统一的植被生活型谱,并应用聚类分析方法,对植物生活型谱进行数量分类,在此基础生态信息系统（ＧＲＥＥＮ）和地理信息系统（ＩＤＲＩＳＩ）等现代信息处理技术,定义各谱系的生态气候适应参数区间,模拟并图象显示各类植物生活型谱在地理空间上的分布格局,通过聚类分析,将我国主要木 落的植物生活型谱划分了１１种类     

The TRM Model of Potential Natural Vegetation in Mountain Forests

Due to advances in spatial modeling and improved availability of digital geodata, traditional mapping of potential natural vegetation (PNV) can be replaced by ecological modeling approaches. We developed a new model to map forest types representing the potential natural forest vegetation in the Bavarian Alps. The TRM model is founded on a three-dimensional system of the ecological gradients temperature (T), soil reaction (R), and soil moisture (M). Within such a “site cube” forest types are defined as homogenous site units that give rise to forest communities with comparable species composition, structure, production and protective functions. The three gradients were modeled using regression algorithms with area-wide, high resolution geodata on climate, relief and soil as predictors and average Ellenberg indicator values for temperature, acidity and moisture of vegetation plots as dependent variables summarizing plant responses to ecological gradients. The resulting predictor-response relationships allowed us to predict gradient positions of each raster cell in the region from geodata layers. The three-dimensional system of gradients was partitioned into 26 forest types, which can be mapped for the whole region. TRM-based units are supplemented by 22 forest types of special sites defined by other ecological factors such as geomorphology, for which individual GIS rules were developed. The application of our model results in an intermediate-scale map of potential natural forest vegetation, which is based on an explicit function of temperature, reaction and moisture and is therefore consistent and repeatable in contrast to traditional PNV maps.     

Ecological vegetation maps

On ecological vegetation maps, the distribution of vegetation is related to one or more features of the environment. Tolerance, competition, map scales and the environment are discussed with regard to their bearing on the geographical distribution of phytocenoses and their portrayal on maps. There are two types of ecological vegetation maps: those relating the vegetation to one environmental quality, and those with two or more such qualities. The interpretation of ecological vegetation maps is relatively simple when plant communities are related to a single quality of the biotope and difficult but usually more useful when related to several qualities. Perfection is not possible but can be approached asymptotically.     

Predictive modeling of the potential natural vegetation pattern in northeast China

Based on the characteristics of natural vegetation distribution in northeast China, using multivariate analysis and geographical information system technology, we established a regional ‘vegetation–environment’ model to simulate geographical distribution of 16 natural vegetation types under present environmental conditions, representing the potential natural vegetation (PNV) of northeast China, on the basis of digital maps of seven environmental variables including climate and topography. Comparison of simulated PNVs distributions with the actual natural vegetation distribution indicated a good agreement, with overall predictive accuracy of 66.9% and overall Kappa value of 0.67. The predictions of model, however, were poor, for only 0.62 of AUC value was yielded. The current resolution and accuracy of the model can be applied to simulate and map the natural vegetation pattern at the regional scale and also used to analyze the effect of climatic changes on natural vegetation.     

Validation of the Integrated Biosphere Simulator in simulating the potential natural vegetation map of China

The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS)—a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model—was validated by simulating the potential natural vegetation map of China using data on monthly mean climate from 1961 to 1990, soil texture, and topography. Although the vegetation map simulated by IBIS was able to describe the sketch of vegetation patterns in China, the distributions of several plant functional types (PFTs) and vegetation types were still simulated incorrectly, especially in eastern temperate areas, southern subtropics, the southern Sichuan basin, and the Hengduan mountains area. By adjusting some of the climatic constraints and physiological parameters of PFTs defined in IBIS, the simulated distributions of PFTs became reasonable, and the simulated vegetation map fitted the natural vegetation map better. The kappa statistic between the simulated and the natural vegetation maps was 0.76, an increase of 16.9% from the previous parameter adjustment of 0.65. Correspondingly, the degree of agreement between these two maps rose from “good” to “very good”. After the parameter adjustments, IBIS became more suitable for the large-scale simulation of Chinese natural vegetation distributions and could provide a powerful support to reveal the dynamic responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change in China.     

A vegetation-ecological approach to the classification and evaluation of potential natural vegetation of the Fagetea crenatae region in Tohoku (northern Honshu), Japan

A new vegetation-ecological approach is proposed for classification and evaluation of vegetation zones by means of phytosociological landscape analysis, based on the potential natural vegetation. The study area is the “Fagetea crenatae region” of the cool-temperate zone of Tohoku (northern Honshu) and the northern parts of Kanto. The area was divided into 953 geographic quadrats on a base map at a scale of 1 ∶ 500000. Based on climax complexes of vegetation in each quadrat, 55 community sub-groups were distinguished as basic units of community complex and vegetation landscapes. The community sub-groups were then grouped into 17 larger community groups by the phytosociological table method. As a result, three phytogeographic vegetation zones (Japan Sea side, inland areas and Pacific side) were classified. For each of these community sub-groups, five geographical and climatic variables (average altitude, mean annual temperature, Kira's warmth index, annual precipitation and mean annual maximum snow depth) were averaged, and the community sub-groups in the same community group, which resembled each other ecologically, were assembled into 28 clusters. The clusters were combined into 11 ecological groups by means of Pearson's similarity ratio of geographical and climatic characteristics. By comparing these ecological groups as a vegetation complex, four phytogeographic vegetation zones (Japan Sea side, inland areas, Pacific side and northern Honshu) corresponding to each potential natural vegetation region with distinct environmental characteristics, were newly classified.     

太白山表土花粉和气孔器与植物类型的关系研究

通过陕西太白山13个样点表土花粉组合特征和气孔器及其与植物类型之间关系的分析,结果发现:针阔混交林花粉组合能很好地反映植物类型特征,落叶阔叶林和针叶林花粉组合能较好地与植物类型相对应,高山灌丛草甸花粉组合未能反映植物类型数量特征;主要花粉类型松属、铁杉属和桦属花粉具超代表性,胡桃属和榆属花粉具适宜代表性,落叶松属、冷杉属、杜鹃花科和槭属花粉具低代表性;DCA(Detrended Correspondence Analysis)分析表明,通过花粉数据能够较好区分不同植被类型,结合气孔器特征能够准确反映植被特征。     

Relationships between plant communities and late snow melting on Mount Prado (Northern Apennines,Italy)

Relationships between the spatial and temporal distribution of long-lasting snow-cover and the spatial distribution of plant communities above timberline were studied on Mount Prado (2054 m), a representative sample area of the summit vegetation of the Northern Apennines (Italy). The spatial analysis was carried out by creating a geographic information system. Vegetation map and two snow-cover maps were both georeferenced to a scale 1 : 2000. The vegetation map is formed by 28 plant communities (including 7 combinations of communities, or vegetation mosaics) distributed into 277 map polygons. The maps were compared by an overlay procedure. The results show that the six plant communities (including three mosaics) which have a June snow-cover higher than 60% are diversified by a snow-melting gradient from early June to mid-July. The slowest snow melt corresponds to a snow-bed community (Salicetum herbaceae) and to a mesophytic grassland (Trifolium thalii-Festuca puccinellii community, Luzula alpino-pilosa variant).     

Predictive mapping of alpine grasslands in Switzerland: Species versus community approach

Abstract. Separate logistic regression models were developed to predict the distribution and large-scale spatial patterns of dominant graminoid species and communities in alpine grasslands. The models are driven by four bioclimatic parameters: degree-days of growing season (basis 0 °C), a moisture index for July, potential direct solar radiation for March, and a continentality index. Geology and slope angle were used as a surrogate for nutrient availability and soil water capacity. The bioclimatic parameters were derived from monthly mean temperature, precipitation, cloudiness and potential direct solar radiation. The environmental parameters were interpolated using a digital elevation model with a resolution of 50 m. The vegetation data for model calibration originate from field surveys and literature. An independent test data set with samples from three different climatic zones was used to test the model. The degree of coincidence between simulated and observed patterns was similar for species and communities, but the κ-values for communities were generally higher (κ= 0.539) than for species (mean individual κ= 0.201). Information on land use was detected as a major factor that could significantly improve both the species and the community model. Nevertheless, the climatic factors used to drive the model explained a major part of the observed patterns.     

Climate and vegetation in China III water balance and distribution of vegetation

Distributions of 29 vegetation types in China as a function of climatic humidity or aridity were analysed using Thornthwaite's system, by employing meteorological records from 671 stations in China. The annual potential evapotranspiration and the humidity/aridity indices were calculated for every station, and distribution maps of water deficiency, water surplus and moisture index (Im) were constructed. The Im map showed that arid areas (Im<0) occupied about 56% of the country. The effect of the difference in soil water storage capacity on Thornthwaite's indices was examined, and Im values were found to differ little, although some differences were observed in actual annual evapotranspiration, water deficiency and water surplus values. Correlations between Im values and distributions of 29 vegetation types, identified from a vegetation map with a scale of 1/4000000, were investigated. The distributions of desert, steppe, woodland, deciduous forest and evergreen forest corresponded to Im values of below −40, −40–−20, −20-0, 0–60 and over 60, respectively. In addition, climatic factors delimiting the northern distribution of evergreen broadleaf forest were investigated, and it was clarified that the northern limit was restricted by combined hydrothermal conditions, and not by the low temperature in winter.     

内蒙古地区不同景观植被地带蝗总科生态区系的区域性分异

为了阐明内蒙古地区不同景观植被地带蝗总科生态区系（Acridoidea ecofaunas）的生态地理学特征,本文依据长期野外考察和文献积累数据,分别对寒温型明亮针叶林带（F1）、中温型夏绿阔叶林带（F2）、森林草原带（FS）、典型草原带（TS）、荒漠草原带（DS）、暖温型草原化荒漠亚带（SD）和典型荒漠亚带（TD）等7个不同类型植被地带（或亚带）内蝗总科区系结构组成、生态生存条件（植被、气候、土壤等）及其区系形成的生态学机理进行了分析,综合比较了各植被地带（或亚带）的蝗虫物种多样性、区系地理成分的区域性分异及其与地带间不同植被的相关性。结论指出,由于多数蝗种具有以禾本科（Gramineae）和菊科（Compositae）植物为主要食料的食性特征,而典型草原带的植被群落恰以“多年生丛生禾草及根茎禾草”为建群优势层片,其形成的丰富食物资源、多样的栖息场所、充足的日光辐射和较长的生长期以及有利于产卵孵化的土壤条件等,为蝗虫提供了最为多样的时间、空间和营养生态位（niches）,故蝗虫长期受自然选择的压力,在适应协同进化的历史过程中,形成了它们在典型草原带内具有最高的物种多样性。相比之下,在具有极端生态生存条件的内蒙古东部针叶林带和西部典型荒漠亚带内,分别因其低温高湿和高温低湿的两类不同极端气候特征的生态作用,形成了蝗虫在这两个植被地带内生存分布的生态阻限,故其拥有的物种多样性水平最低,其区系结构的组成种类也截然不同。     

内蒙古主要植被类型与气候因子关系的研究

利用地理信息系统工具,以最新的植被类型图为依据,在统计、建模和空间模拟区域气候因子的基础上,对内蒙古主要植被类型与气候的关系进行了分析,并获得适宜的气候范围.结果表明,内蒙古植被空间分布表现出明显的规律性.一方面,随着距离海洋的远近变化,无论是地带性植被,还是山地垂直带、沙地及低湿地植被,从东向西均反映出地带分异,水分对于这种东西向更替更为重要.另一方面,热量的差异导致纬向上的变化.此外,热量成为大兴安岭东西两麓发育的林缘草甸、草原、灌丛和低湿地等植被类型空间分布的主导因素.     

我国以梭梭属植物为优势的潜在荒漠植被分布

以我国最新出版的《中国植被图集》为基础,应用地理信息系统GIS软件ARC/ INFO(NT版)和数字化仪,提取以梭梭属植物为优势的现存荒漠植被地理分布信息,制作地理分布专题图;在生态信息系统(GREEN)软件支持下,定义地理气候适应参数区间,生成以梭梭属植物为优势的潜在荒漠植被分布图;将现存和潜在的分布图叠加并对照比较,揭示以梭梭属植物为优势的潜在荒漠植被分布特征,预测适宜以梭梭属植物为优势的荒漠植被发展的地理空间。结果表明:以梭梭柴为优势的潜在荒漠植被分布的行政区域包括新疆维吾尔自治区、内蒙古自治区、甘肃省、青海省等省(区) ,以白梭梭为优势的潜在荒漠植被分布的行政区域仅限于新疆维吾尔自治区;以梭梭柴为优势和以白梭梭为优势的潜在荒漠植被分布与现存的以梭梭柴为优势和以白梭梭为优势的荒漠植被分布的行政区域一致,分布的地貌也基本相同,但两者之间在地理分布边界和面积上存在较大差异。以梭梭柴为优势的潜在荒漠植被分布的北界超出现存的以梭梭柴为优势的荒漠植被的分布北界约0 .9个纬度,南界超出约0 .4个纬度;东界超出约5 .9个经度,西界超出约3.5个经度;以白梭梭为优势的潜在荒漠植被分布的北界超出现存的以白梭梭为优势的荒漠植被分布的北界约1个纬度;南界超出约0 .9个纬度;东界超     

Recognizing and interpreting vegetational belts: New wine in the old bottles of a von Humboldt's legacy

Since von Humboldt, recognizing and using elevational subdivisions is at the core of biogeographical and ecological studies in mountain ecosystems. However, despite the large use of vegetational belts, their conceptual definition and practical identification appear to be surprisingly loose and inconsistent. Many authors use variations in climatic conditions to identify elevational belts. These belts are useful to set a framework for ecological studies but cannot be considered a surrogate of vegetational belts, because factors different from climate play a major role in determining the distribution of plant assemblages. Vegetation physiognomy can be used to identify ‘biome‐type’ belts that are useful for comparisons across geographical areas with different floras. However, to properly reflect ecological conditions at local scale, vegetational belts should be based on species composition. One of the most effective statistical approaches for this purpose is the use spatially constrained cluster analysis. The use of indicator species analysis may be also recommended to identify the species that most characterize vegetational belts. This can help researchers to identify belts in the field. Since species identification can be difficult, some authors use plant functional types for belt delimitation. Plant functional types can be helpful to trace the adaptative responses of vegetation along elevational gradients, but cannot be recommended as a standard way to identify belts. In general, criteria to identify vegetational belts can be based on both vegetation structure (namely physiognomy and structural parameters) and/or species composition, depending on the scale and the aim of the analyses, and they should be clearly stated.     

西双版纳勐养自然保护区植被的分布与生态特征

对西双版纳勐养自然保护区植被的类型进行了划分 ,包括人工和自然群落 ,共有7个大类、1 5个群系、2 4个群落类型分布 .对每个类型的主要组成种类、生态特征和分布现状进行了初步研究 .利用地理信息系统软件制取植被图并获得了各种植被类型的分布面积和分布格局特征 ,这一地区亚热带季风常绿阔叶林的分布面积和所占比例最大 ,达总面积的 41 .2 6 % ;而热带雨林面积不超过总面积的 1 0 % .依据地形、海拔、气候和现状植被分布的规律 ,在获得景观类型图的基础上 ,得到了可以反映这一地区在完全自然条件下植被可能分布的状况的还原植被图 ,为保护区的发展和植被的恢复提供了理论依据。     

黄土高原地区主要植被类型的气候梯度分布

应用Thronthwaite的方法,对黄土高原286个气象站(台)的某些气候指标进行了计算,其中包括校正的潜在蒸散(APE)、水分指数(IM)、热量系数(TE)、干旱指数(IA)和湿润指数(IH)。同时,得到了每项气候指标的地理回归模型,并利用各项地理回归模型分别做出了各项气候指标的地区分布图。APE和IM与黄土高原地区植被的主要类型及其分布格局有密切的关系。本区大多数的植被类型的IM均为负值,照例划入干旱亚湿润-半干旱-干旱(dry subhumid-semiarid-arid)地区内,而大部分植被的TE在57.1—85.5之间,应属中温范畴。植被与气候指标的相关性表明:黄土高原南端的地带性植被,实际上为干旱森林、疏林和灌丛,它们在性质上与分布于山地上的辽东栋(Quercus liaotungensis Koiz.)林有所区别。     

Changes in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities along a river delta island in northeastern Brazil

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) play a key role in the maintenance of the balance of terrestrial ecosystems, but little is known about the biogeography of these fungi, especially on tropical islands. This study aims to compare AMF community structure along a transect crossing a fluvial-marine island and relate these communities with soil and vegetation parameters to shed light on the forces driving AMF community structure on a local scale. We tested the hypothesis that the composition of AMF communities changes across the island, even within short distances among sites, in response to differences in edaphic characteristics and vegetation physiognomies. We sampled roots and soils in five different natural and degraded habitats: preserved mangrove forest (MF), degraded mangrove forest (MD), natural Restinga forest (RF), and two regeneration Restinga forests (RR1 and RR2) on Ilha da Restinga, northeastern Brazil. We determined the mycorrhizal colonization rate and AMF community structure based on morphological spore identification. The island soils were sandy with pH varying from acid to neutral; higher levels of organic matter were registered in RF and lower in MF; other chemical and physical soil attributes differed along the habitat types on the island. In total, 22 AMF species were identified, without any difference in species richness. However, the diversity and composition of AMF communities, spore abundance per families, and mycorrhizal colonization were statistically different among the habitats. The composition of AMF communities was strongly related to soil characteristics, especially the sum of exchangeable bases. Our results indicate that the different habitat types have diverse AMF communities even within short distances among habitats. In conclusion, islands with high spatial heterogeneity in soil parameters and diverse vegetation are potential refuges for the diversity conservation of AM fungi.     

中国东部10个海岛植被近自然度评价

植被近自然度评价是森林近自然恢复的重要理论基础。海岛因特殊的生物地理环境,其植被结构和功能有别于陆地植被,当前还未有从植物生理生态角度,联合植物功能性状的海岛植被近自然度评价指标体系。基于中国东部10个典型海岛的74个植物群落,以植被信息、土壤属性和多样性特征（物种和功能多样性）构建海岛植被近自然度评价指标体系。利用敏感性分析筛选出13个反映海岛植被近自然度的中、高敏感性指标,基于筛选指标用层次分析法初次构建了中国东部海岛植被近自然度评价指标体系,并计算典型海岛的植被近自然度综合指数和划定植被近自然度等级。结果显示：海岛植被近自然度综合评价指标的权重：植被信息 > 多样性特征 > 土壤属性,其中植物自然构成系数、土壤含水量、Shannon-Wiener指数、Rao二次熵指数的权重较大;典型海岛的植被近自然度综合指数在0.345-0.611间,其中大金山岛的植被近自然度最高,属半天然林,北长山岛最低,为近人工林,其他海岛为远天然林;中亚热带的海岛植被近自然度较高,暖温带和南亚热带的海岛植被近自然度较低。本研究基于陆地植被近自然度评价指标,联合植物功能多样性对我国东部海岛植被近自然度进行综合评价,为海岛植被的生态状况提供定量依据,以及为海岛植被保护与管理和近自然恢复提供理论支撑。