Host genetics and population structure effects on parasitic disease

Host genetic factors exert significant influences on differential susceptibility to many infectious diseases. In addition, population structure of both host and parasite may influence disease distribution patterns. In this study, we assess the effects of population structure on infectious disease in two populations in which host genetic factors influencing susceptibility to parasitic disease have been extensively studied. The first population is the Jirel population of eastern Nepal that has been the subject of research on the determinants of differential susceptibility to soil-transmitted helminth infections. The second group is a Brazilian population residing in an area endemic for Trypanosoma cruzi infection that has been assessed for genetic influences on differential disease progression in Chagas disease. For measures of Ascaris worm burden, within-population host genetic effects are generally more important than host population structure factors in determining patterns of infectious disease. No significant influences of population structure on measures associated with progression of cardiac disease in individuals who were seropositive for T. cruzi infection were found.     

Modelling the effects of population aggregation on the efficiency of insect pest control

A methodology is developed to assess the effects of spatial distribution on the efficiency of insect pest control. This methodology is especially applicable to pest control methods whose efficiency of action depends either positively or negatively on pest density It is applied here to the sterile insect technique and pheromone trapping for male annihilation, which both depend negatively on density. This methodology relies on quantifying clumps of various size and then relating this to efficiency of control and predicting the total pest production given the information on clump sizes and efficiency of control for each clump size. It is found that control is about four times as difficult for a population that is highly clumped (k of the negative binomial distribution=0.25) as for a regularly dispersed population.     

Modelling population dynamics of seabirds: importance of the effects of climate fluctuations on breeding proportions

Environmental factors and their interactions are likely to have shaped specific breeding and survival strategies in top predators. Understanding how climatic factors affect populations requires detailed investigation of the demographic parameters and population modelling. Here, we focus on the modelling of a southern fulmar population over a 39 year period in Terre Adélie, Antarctica, using Leslie matrix models to understand from a prospective and retrospective point of view, how vital rates and their variations, affect the cyclic population dynamics. The elasticity of population growth rate to adult survival was very high (0.95), as predicted by a slow–fast continuum in avian life histories. However, adult survival varied little between years (mean±SD: 0.92±0.07), and could not explain the strong fluctuations observed in the number of breeders and chicks. The high temporal fluctuations of the proportion of breeders (0.57±0.22) and breeding success (0.70±0.14) had the strongest impact on population dynamics, despite their weak elasticities (0.05). Before the 1980s, population fluctuations were mainly explained by a direct impact of sea-ice extent (SIE) anomalies during summer (by a threshold effect) on the proportion of breeders. After 1980s, 3 years periodic population fluctuations were best predicted by 3 years cyclic variations in the proportion of breeders. SIE showed a marked change of periodicity during the 1980s, and SIE during winter fluctuated with a 3 years periodicity during 1980–1995. The marked change in population dynamics, through a change of the variations of the proportion of breeders, may be explained in the light of a regime shift that probably occurred around the 1980s, and which affected the sea ice environment, the availability of prey, and thus the demographic parameters and population dynamics of southern fulmars.     

Modelling the depletion and conservation of forestry resources: effects of population and pollution

 In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed to study the depletion of resources in a forest habitat due to the increase of both population and pollution. It is shown that if the rate of pollutant emission into the environment is either population dependent, constant, or periodic, the equilibrium biomass density of the resource settles down to a lower equilibrium than its original carrying capacity, the magnitude of which decreases as the equilibrium levels of the density of population and the concentration of pollutant increase. However, in the case of an instantaneous spill of pollutant into the environment, the equilibrium biomass density decreases with the increase of the equilibrium density of population only. It is found that if the population density and the emission rate of pollutant increase without control, the forestry resource may become extinct. A conservation model is also proposed, the analysis of which shows that the resource biomass can be maintained at a desired level by conserving the forestry resource and by controlling the growth of population and the emission rate of pollutant in the habitat. Received 1 June 1993; received in revised form 1 January 1997     

The effects of population structure on the spread of the HIV infection

A model for the spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in a population of male homosexuals is presented. The population is divided into five groups on the basis of degree of sexual activity. Within each group, the individuals are classified as 1) susceptible; 2) infective; or 3) removed because of a lack of sexual activity associated with advanced acquired immunodeficiency disease (AIDS). The infective individuals are further subdivided into four stages of infection. Analyses of the model address two questions with regard to the spread of HIV: (1) What is the effect of level of sexual activity on an individual's risk for infection, and (2) What is the effect that assumptions about mixing between groups have on both individual risk and transmission throughout a population? Results from analyses using a number of different parameter estimates show that increased levels of sexual activity increase the likelihood that an individual will become infected. In addition, the initial spread of the disease is markedly affected by variation in the amount of contact among individuals from different subpopulations. The steady-state incidence of the disease is not markedly affected by variation in the contact patterns, but the size of the steady-state population and therefore the proportion of infected individuals in the population does vary significantly with changes in the degree of mixing among subpopulations. These results show clearly the sensitivity of model outcomes to variation in the patterns of contact among individuals and the need for better data on such interactions to aid in understanding and predicting the spread of HIV.     

The effects of host heterogeneity on pathogen population structure.

We have shown that among pathogens, populations may self-organize into strains with non-overlapping repertoires of antigenic variants as a consequence of strong immune selection operating on polymorphic antigens. Recently, we have also demonstrated that over a wide range of intermediate levels of immune selection, pathogens may still be structured into discrete strains, but different sets of non-overlapping pathogen types will replace each other in a cyclical or chaotic manner. These models assume that the ranking of antigens in terms of the strength of the induced immune response is the same for every host. However, host immune responses may be restricted by the genotype of the individual. To explore this issue, a mathematical model was constructed under the assumption that a proportion of the host population responds principally to a variable antigen while the remainder of the population responds principally to a conserved antigen. The results of this analysis indicate that discrete strain structure (DSS) will be maintained even with a high frequency of hosts that do not respond in a variant-specific manner. Furthermore, the range of the immune selection pressure over which DSS prevails is increased (and the region of cyclical or chaotic behaviour reduced) by the inclusion of hosts that respond in a cross-reactive rather than a variant-specific manner.     

The effects of stochastic population dynamics on food web structure

We develop a stochastic, individual-based model for food web simulation which in the large-population limit reduces to the well-studied Webworld model, which has been used to successfully construct model food webs with several realistic features. We demonstrate that an almost exact match is found between the population dynamics in fixed food webs, and that the demographic fluctuations have systematic effects when the new model is used to construct food webs due to the presence of species with small populations.     

Modelling Allee effects in a transgenic mosquito population during range expansion

ABSTRACT

Mosquitoes are vectors for many diseases that cause significant mortality and morbidity. As mosquito populations expand their range, they may undergo mate-finding Allee effects such that their ability to successfully reproduce becomes difficult at low population density. With new technology, creating target specific gene modification may be a viable method for mosquito population control. We develop a mathematical model to investigate the effects of releasing transgenic mosquitoes into newly established, low-density mosquito populations. Our model consists of two life stages (aquatic and adults), which are divided into three genetically distinct groups: heterogeneous and homogeneous transgenic that cause female infertility and a homogeneous wild type. We perform analytical and numerical analyses on the equilibria to determine the level of saturation needed to eliminate mosquitoes in a given area. This model demonstrates the potential for a gene drive system to reduce the spread of invading mosquito populations.     

Landscape structure and the genetic effects of a population collapse

Both landscape structure and population size fluctuations influence population genetics. While independent effects of these factors on genetic patterns and processes are well studied, a key challenge is to understand their interaction, as populations are simultaneously exposed to habitat fragmentation and climatic changes that increase variability in population size. In a population network of an alpine butterfly, abundance declined 60–100% in 2003 because of low over-winter survival. Across the network, mean microsatellite genetic diversity did not change. However, patch connectivity and local severity of the collapse interacted to determine allelic richness change within populations, indicating that patch connectivity can mediate genetic response to a demographic collapse. The collapse strongly affected spatial genetic structure, leading to a breakdown of isolation-by-distance and loss of landscape genetic pattern. Our study reveals important interactions between landscape structure and temporal demographic variability on the genetic diversity and genetic differentiation of populations. Projected future changes to both landscape and climate may lead to loss of genetic variability from the studied populations, and selection acting on adaptive variation will likely occur within the context of an increasing influence of genetic drift.     

Age-structured effects and disease interference in childhood infections

Recent studies have demonstrated that ecological interference among some childhood diseases may have important dynamic consequences. An interesting question is, when would we expect the interference effect to be pronounced? To address the issue, here we develop a seasonally forced two-disease age-structured model, using empirically derived age-specific force of infection (ASFOI) for numerous infections of childhood. Our comparative numerical analysis shows that when the ASFOIs for the two diseases largely overlap, the dynamics predicted by the two-disease model are generally different from those predicted by the analogous single-disease model, suggesting strong fingerprints of disease interference. When the ASFOIs overlap less, on the other hand, both diseases behave as predicted by the single-disease model, suggesting weak interference. We conclude that age structure is an important factor that should be taken into account in order to explore the underlying mechanisms of disease interference.     

Small rodent population fluctuations: The effects of age structure and seasonality

Despite more than 50 years of effort, the causes and mechanisms of small rodent population fluctuations remain unknown. The two major questions are as follows: (1) what is the cause of population decline and (2) what is the cause of cyclicity and its geographical variation? At present, no hypothesis can provide answers to both these questions. Recently, progress has been made by Boonstra (1994), who proposed the senescence hypothesis to explain the cause of cyclic decline in population numbers. Here, we tested the main prediction that voles in decline are older than in other phases of the cycle, by analysing changes in age structure in a fluctuating population of the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus). The results generally support this prediction; however, the differences in absolute age seem to be too small to explain the occurrence of senescent animals exclusively in declines. We propose a new model to explain changes in age structure and the mechanisms behind the decline and geographic variation in cyclicity. It is based on the idea that voles are oldest in declines, developed independently of Boonstra. However, it differs in three respects: (1) it is more general and thereby applicable to the whole cycle; (2) density-dependent changes in age structure are based on the bimodality in a female's age at first reproduction; and (3) it stresses developmental rather than physiological changes in the quality of decline of animals as being relevant to the rate of senescence. We propose that seasonality of the environment is a principal candidate to explain geographical variation in cyclicity. We present substantial theoretical and empirical evidence to indicate that in more seasonal environments with shortened vegetation periods, population dynamics is inevitably less stable due to increased variation in two critical parameters – age at first reproduction and the length of the breeding season – which determine population growth rates. Any external perturbation may then easily destabilize population numbers. The general applicability of the seasonality-senescence hypothesis to other mammalian species decreases with declining r and increasing life span. The hypothesis is falsifiable, and testable predictions are provided.     

Direct and indirect effects of predation on the genetic structure of a Daphnia population

The effects of fish predation on zooplankton communities arewell documented, but relatively little is known about how predationstructures the genetic composition of individual populations.This study illustrates how a perturbation in the timing andstrength of predation by rainbow trout directly and indirectlyaltered the genetic composition of a Daphnia pulicaria populationin a Minnesota (USA) lake. Trout were stocked in autumn in thefirst 2 years of the study and in spring in the second 2 years.In autumn stocking years, predation was highest over winterand in spring but relatively low during summer stratification.In contrast, in spring stocking years, predation was low overwinter and high during summer stratification. In all years,the Daphnia population became genetically differentiated withrespect to depth, as summer stratification became more pronounced.In addition, allozyme analyses of trout stomach contents revealedselective predation on Daphnia in the metalimnion. In springstocking years, when trout were abundant during the summer,this directly caused a shift in the dominant clone type froma metalimnetic to a hypolimnetic specialist. The fisheries manipulationindirectly affected the genetic composition of the Daphnia populationby altering the importance of recruitment from diapausing embryosin the sediment (the egg bank). In autumn stocking years, whenthe over-wintering population was small, genotype frequenciesin early summer indicated the recent emergence of sexually derivedindividuals from the egg bank. Conversely, in spring stockingyears when over-wintering populations of Daphnia were large,no emergence events were detected.     

Modelling population persistence on islands: mammal introductions in the New Zealand archipelago

Islands are likely to differ in their susceptibility to colonization or invasion due to variation in factors that affect population persistence, including island area, climatic severity and habitat modification. We tested the importance of these factors in explaining the persistence of 164 introductions of six mammal species to 85 islands in the New Zealand archipelago using survival analysis and model selection techniques. As predicted by the theory of stochastic population growth, extinction risk was the greatest in the period immediately following introduction, declining rapidly to low probability by ca 25 years. This suggests that initially small populations were at greatest risk of extinction and that populations which survived for 25 years were likely to persist subsequently for much longer. Islands in the New Zealand archipelago become colder and windier with increasing latitude, and the probability of mammal populations persisting on islands declined steeply with increasing latitude. Hence, our results suggest that climatic suitability was an important determinant of the outcome of these invasions. The form of the relationship between latitude and persistence probability differed among species, emphasizing that the outcome of colonization attempts is species-environment specific.     

Family and population effects on disease resistance in a reptile

Despite its importance in evolutionary biology, studies of the pattern of disease resistance in natural populations are rare. In this paper, we report patterns of infection of a viral eye disease in juvenile Swedish common lizards (Lacerta vivipara). Females were sampled at random from natural populations immediately prior to parturition with equal exposure of pathogens for all lizards once in captivity. No causative agents could be found that linked risk of disease to maternal/interfollicular transfer of pathogens. The results show that a major factor influencing offspring susceptibility is family identity, suggesting heritable variation in pathogen resistance. Our interpopulation comparison provides additional support for a link between genetics and disease resistance. Lizards in northern Sweden were not only more susceptible to the disease but were also more health compromised once infected, with relatively more reduced growth rate and increased mortality than lizards from the south. This scenario suggests that southern lizards have been under selection for resistance to this pathogen, whereas northern lizards have not, or at least not to the same degree. Thus, this study confirms the importance of genetic (family) effects on pathogen resistance with variation in this trait among natural populations.     

The effects of spatial habitat structure on population variability of freshwater snails

Experiments were conducted to examine the effects of a habitat's spatial structure on population variability in two species of freshwater snails (Physa acuta and Austropeplea ollula). To alter the spatial structure of the habitat, vinyl chloride plates were hung in experimental tanks, providing three types of spatial structure: Complex structure, Simple structure and Control (no structure). In Experiment 1, the average number of individuals in a tank did not differ among the three types of structure 2 months after the introduction of the snails, but the variability of the number of individuals in the Complex structure tanks was lowest, whereas the variability in the Control tanks was highest. In Experiment 2, in addition to the spatial structure of the habitat, three types of species interaction were designed as experimental treatments: only P. acuta was introduced into the tanks (P. acuta tanks), only A. ollula was introduced into the tanks (A. ollulatanks) and both P. acuta and A. ollula were introduced into the tanks (two-species tanks). For the P. acuta tanks, the variability of the number of P. acuta individuals in the Complex structure tanks was lowest, and the variability in the Control tanks was highest when the effect of the number of individuals in a tank was subtracted. For the A. ollula tanks and the two-species tanks, there were no significant differences in the variability of the population size among the different treatments of spatial structure. The spatial distribution of P. acuta was more uniform than the distribution of A. ollula on the plates of complex structure. Our results indicate that the spatial structure of the habitat influences the variability of population size (the variance of the number of individuals in different populations during the earlier period after the introduction of the snails), but the effects depend on the spatial behavior of individuals and the interaction with other species.