秦巴特困区生态脆弱性与经济贫困的耦合关系——以陕西省山阳县为例

以国家扶贫开发重点县山阳县为例,采用遥感与地理信息技术对研究区的生态脆弱性进行定量评价,并构建以行政村为单元的经济贫困评价指标体系,以此分析研究区生态脆弱性与经济贫困耦合协调度的空间分异特征。研究结果表明:①山阳县生态脆弱性整体处于中等偏高水平,生态脆弱性高的地区集中分布在人类活动频繁的河川地带和水土流失严重的低山区;②贫困程度整体较深,地形条件、资源丰度、交通通达性及经济区位的综合差异形成了山阳县经济贫困的空间分布格局;③将山阳县生态脆弱性与经济贫困的耦合关系分为失调共损型、失调环境滞后型、失调经济滞后型、协调同步型、协调环境滞后型及协调经济滞后型六种类型,协调同步型行政村比例仅为13.0%,生态脆弱性与经济贫困的耦合协调度整体较低;④失调共损型、协调同步型及协调环境滞后型空间分布较分散,失调环境滞后型、失调经济滞后型及协调经济滞后型有明显的集聚区,失调环境滞后型和协调经济滞后型集中分布在低山河谷区,失调经济滞后型集中分布在海拔1000 m以上的偏远山区。     

生物多样性经济价值评估的基本方法

目前,生物多样性经济价值的基本评价方法包括三种类型,一种是基于个人支付意愿(WTP)的直接经济价值评估方法,再一种是利用实际或替代市场的间接经济价值评估方法,第三种是针对生物多样性价值在空间上流动的现象,基于定量分析的过程－效益评价法。     

The use of constrained selection indexes in breeding for economic merit

Summary Various methods exist for the derivation of restricted and/or desired gains selection indexes, and their use in applied breeding has been advocated. It is shown that there exists a set of implied linear economic weights for all constrained indexes and their derivation is given. Where economic weights are linear and known, a standard selection index is, by definition, optimal and thus a constrained index will usually be suboptimal. It is argued that economic weights can always be estimated and that the effects of uncertain weights can be examined by sensitivity analysis. If economic weights are nonlinear, use of the first order (linear) economic weights or a derived linear index, using previously described methods, will give very close to optimum economic selection responses. Examples from the literature indicate that severe losses of potential economic gain can possibly occur through use of a constrained index. It is concluded that constrained indexes should be avoided for economic genetic selection.     

高生物量经济植物修复重金属污染土壤研究进展

植物修复是重金属污染土壤修复的重要方法之一。利用高生物量经济植物修复重金属污染土壤,能够兼顾生态和经济效益,具有很大的应用前景。本文系统分析了植物修复现状及存在的问题,提出利用高生物量经济植物修复重金属污染土壤的优势,总结了近年来利用高生物量经济植物吸收重金属的研究进展,探讨了改善高生物量经济植物修复重金属污染土壤效率的方法,以期为提高植物修复经济效益、促进植物修复广泛应用提供参考。     

辽宁省能源消费与经济增长的灰色关联

我国能源消费与经济增长的矛盾日益突出.辽宁省是我国重工业基地和能源消耗大省,经济发展对能源依赖性强,能源供不应求的状态日益显著.为了深入了解辽宁省能源消费与经济增长的关系,提出科学的低碳发展建议,本文基于2000—2012年辽宁省能源消费与经济增长相关数据,应用灰色关联分析,分别对辽宁省能源消费产业和能源消费品种与经济增长的相关性进行实证分析.结果表明: 在各产业能源消费中,批发零售业和住宿餐饮业能源消费量很少,但与经济增长的关联程度最大,工业消费量最大,却与经济增长的关联度较弱;在能源消费品种中,石油和水电能源消费量与经济增长的灰色关联度显著,但煤炭能源消费量与经济增长的关联度不显著,表明煤炭的利用效率低.为实现低碳可持续发展,辽宁省应转变经济增长方式、调整产业结构、优化能源结构、提高能源利用效率,特别是应大力发展生产性服务业,推进清洁能源和可再生能源的开发.     

基于协整理论的经济增长与生态环境变化关系分析——以重庆市渝东南地区为例

许多研究文献忽略了经济增长和生态环境质量的双向作用机制,从而导致了变量之间的内生性偏差。与以往研究相比,主要在以下几方面进行分析:1)采用脉冲响应函数来分别考察生态环境与经济增长这两类变量之间的动态冲击反应。2)运用预测方差分解技术来考察经济增长与生态环境变化在解释因素变动时的相对重要性。结论:经济增长与生态环境之间存在长期的均衡关系,非平稳序列的经济增长指标、生态环境因子经过一阶差分后变得平稳,均为一阶单整,存在协整统计关系。从长期来看,人均GDP与废气排放量、固废排放量呈现负相关,而与矿产开采总量、化肥使用强度呈现正相关。其高度正相关性实证了该地区主要靠资源开发拉动经济增长。脉冲响应分析表明,快速经济增长是影响生态环境质量的重要原因,生态环境质量变化对经济增长存在着反作用力。就响应效果而言,生态环境对经济增长的负向响应表明生态环境退化将导致人们对生态环境质量需求偏好的改变,从而对经济增长进程的变化产生外在压力,但生态环境对经济增长的反馈效应具有滞后性。     

Association of Childhood Economic Hardship with Adult Height and Adult Adiposity among Hispanics/Latinos. The HCHS/SOL Socio-Cultural Ancillary Study

The study examined the association of childhood and current economic hardship with anthropometric indices in Hispanic/Latino adults, using data from the HCHS/SOL Socio-cultural ancillary study (N = 5,084), a community-based study of Hispanic/Latinos living in four urban areas (Bronx, NY, Chicago, IL, Miami, FL, and San Diego, CA). Childhood economic hardship was defined as having experienced a period of time when one’s family had trouble paying for basic needs (e.g., food, housing), and when this economic hardship occurred: between 0–12, 13–18 years old, or throughout both of those times. Current economic hardship was defined as experiencing trouble paying for basic needs during the past 12 months. Anthropometry included height, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and percentage body fat (%BF). Complex survey linear regression models were used to test the associations of childhood economic hardship with adult anthropometric indices, adjusting for potential confounders (e.g., age, sex, Hispanic background). Childhood economic hardship varied by Hispanic background, place of birth, and adult socio-economic status. Childhood economic hardship during both periods, childhood and adolescence, was associated with shorter height. Childhood economic hardship was associated with greater adiposity among US born individuals only. Current economic hardship was significantly associated with all three measures of adiposity (BMI, WC, %BF). These findings suggest that previous periods of childhood economic hardship appear to influence adult height more than adiposity, whereas current economic hardship may be a better determinant of adult adiposity in Hispanics.     

“世博”背景下上海经济与环境的耦合演化

综合运用社会经济统计与环境监测数据,揭示了"世博"背景下,上海城市内部经济发展和环境保护关系的耦合演化特征。结果发现,2002-2010年各区县经济差异明显扩大。在总体差异中,主要表现为主城区内部和郊区内部差异,主城区和郊区间的差异较小;2006年后,主城区内部差异贡献进一步增加,郊区内部差异贡献开始下降,但各区环境质量有明显改善。2006年和2010年经济环境耦合关系都满足环境库兹涅兹曲线规律,但2010年拐点处的经济水平与环境质量都明显优于2006年,各区县分布格局差异较大。研究揭示了经济结构调整与全球化、多层次城市规划体系以及世博会影响是区域经济差异及环境库兹涅茨曲线演化的主要驱动因素。建议快速发展的城市应该加速产业转型升级、发挥产业布局与城市规划作用、抓住举办城市重大活动机遇,优化经济环境耦合关系,实现城市的可持续发展。     

四川省森林植被固碳经济价值动态

<正>确估算森林植被固碳经济价值可为森林生态系统的生态效益评价提供基础数据。利用1997年和2014年两期四川省森林资源清查数据,依据不同森林类型的生物量与蓄积量回归方程和支付意愿法,估算了四川省两个时期森林植被的固碳经济价值。结果表明,从1997年到2014年,四川省森林植被固碳经济价值由703.17亿元增长到865.75亿元,净增长162.58亿元,年均增长9.56亿元,年均增长率为1.36%;在两个时期,云冷杉林的固碳经济价值比重最大,分别占总固碳经济价值的54.82%和46.62%,表明云冷杉森林植被类型在全省森林植被固碳经济价值中占有重要的地位;四川省天然林和人工林植被的固碳经济价值均呈增加趋势,并且人工林植被固碳经济价值年均增长速率(7.42%)明显高于天然林(1.03%);四川省森林植被固碳经济价值总体上随林龄的增加而增加。研究结果说明,实施包括天然林保护工程在内的森林保护和经营管理措施对提高森林植被的固碳经济价值具有重要的作用。     

Economic weights of production and functional traits for Merinolandschaf, Romney, Romanov and Sumavska sheep in the Czech Republic

Economic weights of production and functional traits were estimated for the dual-purpose sheep breeds Romney (RY), Merinolandschaf (ML), Romanov (RV) and Sumavska (SA). A bio-economic computer model simulating the profit function for production systems with one lambing per year was used for the calculations. First, marginal economic values were calculated which were defined as partial derivatives of the profit function with respect to the average level for each trait. Applying gene-flow methodology, absolute and relative economic weights for direct and maternal components of the traits were then estimated for pure-bred production systems and systems which included partial terminal cross-breeding. The following traits were evaluated: birth weight, daily gain till weaning and during rearing, mature weight, dressing percentage, fleece weight, conception rate of ewe lambs and ewes, litter size at lambing (total number of lambs born per ewe lambing), survival rate of lambs at birth and till weaning and productive lifetime of ewes. Standardized economic weights were calculated as the product of the economic weight and the genetic standard deviation of each trait or trait component. The total economic importance was defined as the sum of the absolute (not taking into account the sign) standardized economic weights over all traits and trait components, and relative economic weights were then computed as the standardized economic weights expressed as percentages of total economic importance. The direct components of survival rate at birth and till weaning, the direct component of daily gain till weaning and litter size had the highest relative economic weights (greater than 10%) in pure-bred systems in all four breeds. In ML and RV, the maternal component of lamb survival rate till weaning also had a relative economic weight exceeding 10%. In systems with partial terminal cross-breeding for all four breeds, relative economic weights of maternal traits and trait components were slightly larger than in pure-bred production systems, particularly for litter size. Based upon comparison of relative economic weights of traits among breeds, separate breeding goals for RY and RV are recommended, whereas a common breeding goal is deemed appropriate for ML and SA.     

土地经济生态位在县域景观格局分析中的应用——以新疆精河县为例

本文将土地经济生态位的理论和方法引入到景观生态学当中,为区域景观格局表征提供了新的方法.选择典型的生态脆弱区精河县为研究对象,以1990、1998、2011和2013年4期Landsat影像为数据源,运用生态位态势理论计算研究区各土地利用类型的土地经济生态位,并结合景观生态学理论探讨土地经济生态位在县域景观格局分析中的应用.结果表明: 研究期间,精河县耕地、建设用地和草地的土地经济生态位与相应的景观斑块数、聚合度、破碎化指数和分维数具有较好的相关性;土地经济生态位的变化对县域景观格局具有驱动作用,可表征精河县经济发展方向.土地经济生态位与可直接获得经济效益的土地利用类型关系密切,且与景观指数相结合能够很好地解释精河县景观格局的特征.     

中国经济林生态系统服务价值评估

基于中国经济林生态系统的长期、连续定位观测,采用第6次全国森林资源清查数据和国内外权威部门公布的价格参数数据,利用市场价值法、费用代替法、替代工程法等方法定量评价了2003年我国不同省份经济林生态系统的服务价值.结果表明：2003年,我国经济林生态系统服务总价值为11763.39×10⁸元,经济林产品总价值占总生态价值的19.93%,经济林除为社会提供直接产品外,还具有巨大的生态经济价值;各项功能的价值量依次为涵养水源＞固碳制氧＞生物多样性保护＞保育土壤＞净化环境＞营养积累;我国各省区经济林生态系统服务价值的空间格局与水热条件和生物多样性的分布具有趋同性.了解各省区经济林生态系统服务价值的差异,对改变目前我国经济林生产布局的不合理与经营上的弊端以及引导经济林向优质、高效、现代化方向健康发展具有重要意义.     

黄河流域经济发展与生态环境压力的脱钩关系及其驱动效应分析

经济发展与生态环境的协调平衡是推动黄河流域高质量发展的重要途径之一,这对区域经济一体化高质量发展和生态环境健康可持续具有重要的现实意义。以黄河流域379个区县为研究对象,基于熵值-TOPSIS综合评价法和Tapio脱钩模型动态解析1990-2018年经济发展与生态环境压力的脱钩关系,引入结构分解模型（SDA）探讨影响生态环境压力的驱动因素,并运用因果诊断算法（PCMCI）推断驱动经济发展与生态环境压力脱钩的因果关联路径。结果表明：（1）黄河流域70%的区县生态环境压力处于较低压和低压,但因资源条件禀赋经济得以快速发展的内蒙古地区生态环境仍承载着较高压和高压。（2）生态环境压力主要受技术效应和经济效应驱动,技术效应的驱动作用实现经济产出并缓解了生态环境压力,经济效应的驱动作用在流域中下游地区更为突出。（3）黄河流域68.34%的区县实现了经济发展与生态环境压力的有效脱钩（强脱钩和弱脱钩）,经济总量增长的同时减小了生态环境承载的压力,但黄河流域各区县经济发展与生态环境压力的脱钩类型处于动态变化之中,应防范强脱钩或弱脱钩类型的区县倒退至负脱钩类型。（4）以乡村人口和城镇化率要素为代表的人口因子有效驱动了黄河流域经济发展与生态环境压力脱钩,其中乡村人口与脱钩指数出现因果关系的频率最高,城镇化率要素与脱钩指数的因果强度最大,农业技术因子主导了最多的区县实现经济发展与生态环境压力脱钩,农业结构多样化和农业集约化缓解了经济发展对生态环境的压力。研究结果对提高经济高质量发展与生态环境保护的可持续性具有可推广的实践价值。     

Estimates of economic values for traits of Arabic sheep in village system

A deterministic bio-economic model was used to estimate the economic values of different traits in Arabic sheep native to the Khuzestan province of Iran. In the studied system, variable costs accounted for about 98.5% of the total costs and among variable costs, feed costs had the highest proportion with 70.7%. Revenue sources included meat, wool, and manure, where meat was the most important one and formed 95.5% of total revenues. Economic value for a trait was estimated as the amount of change in the profit of system as its mean increased by one unit, while the means of other traits were constant. The most important trait in this system was litter size, followed by ewe survival, dressing percentage, and wool weight, respectively. Birth weight had a negative economic value but weight at older ages especially weaning weight and 12-month weight had positive economic values. The sensitivity of economic values of traits was investigated by changing feed and non-feed costs, meat and wool prices by ±10%. Results showed that economic values for dressing percentage and wool weight are not sensitive to change in costs. In addition, changes in marketing and management costs had no effect on the economic value for traits related to body weight in different ages. In general, the economic value for traits which showed sensitivity to the changes of costs, except ewe survival, decreased due to an increase in costs. The economic value for all traits, except birth and wool weight, changed because of a change in meat price. Increasing meat price meant a higher economic importance. Among different factors, meat price fluctuations had the most effect on the economic value of traits.     

The economics of clinical genetics services. I. Preview.

To an ever increasing extent, a variety of economic factors are affecting the delivery of clinical genetics services. These economic factors, which we enumerate with an historical perspective, influence how genetics professionals, patients, and third-party payers relate to genetics services. From the perspectives of each of these interested parties, the deficiency of objective information about the current economic situation is striking. The recent history of charges and reimbursement for our genetics clinic illustrates both one kind of data that is readily available and how modification of administrative procedures can improve the economic balance sheet. However, several characteristics of clinical genetics limit the possibility of economic self-sufficiency.     

基于生态-经济比较优势视角的建设用地空间优化配置研究——以扬州市为例

随着生态空间日益萎缩,生态环境不断恶化,经济发展与生态保护矛盾日趋加剧。为了协调经济发展空间与生态保护空间的矛盾问题,促进生态、经济协调持续发展,综合运用景观生态学方法与经济学原理,从"生态-经济"比较优势视角对建设用地指标进行空间优化配置。运用景观安全格局方法构建区域综合生态安全格局,据此计算空间单元的生态重要性指数,采用最小累积阻力模型对区域建设用地开发经济适宜性进行评价,计算空间单元的建设用地开发经济适宜性指数;其次运用生态重要性指数与经济适宜性指数计算建设用地开发比较优势度,以比较优势约束性满足程度为目标函数构建建设用地空间优化配置模型,并用蒙特卡洛(Monte Carol)法对之求解。以江苏省扬州市为例作了实证研究。结果显示,未来扬州市建设用地向南部经济发达地区集中,北部地区主要承担生态保护功能;建设用地配置结果呈现出经济发展与生态保护的错位格局,有助于扬州市生态保护与经济发展。从"生态-经济"比较优势视角提出了建设用地空间优化配置方法,为土地利用规划及生态保护规划编制提供了科学依据。     

Economic inequality caused by feedbacks between poverty and the dynamics of a rare tropical disease: the case of Buruli ulcer in sub-Saharan Africa

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) have received increasing attention in recent years by the global heath community, as they cumulatively constitute substantial burdens of disease as well as barriers for economic development. A number of common tropical diseases such as malaria, hookworm or schistosomiasis have well-documented economic impacts. However, much less is known about the population-level impacts of diseases that are rare but associated with high disability burden, which represent a great number of tropical diseases. Using an individual-based model of Buruli ulcer (BU), we demonstrate that, through feedbacks between health and economic status, such NTDs can have a significant impact on the economic structure of human populations even at low incidence levels. While average wealth is only marginally affected by BU, the economic conditions of certain subpopulations are impacted sufficiently to create changes in measurable population-level inequality. A reduction of the disability burden caused by BU can thus maximize the economic growth of the poorest subpopulations and reduce significantly the economic inequalities introduced by the disease in endemic regions.     

水体污染经济损失估算模型及其应用

运用湖泊水污染经济损失与湖泊水质之间的关系模型,分析了某一湖泊B不同年段各种主要使用功能的经济损害效果。研究结果表明,无论水体中哪一种污染物的升高,都必然造成各种使用功能经济损害的增加;该湖仅在1990年其各种主要使用功能的污染损害较为显著,并以旅游和生活饮水两项功能损害突出,因污染所蒙受的经济损失也较大。总体上,各种使用功能在整个监测期间（1990－1999）经济损害率呈减轻趋势,但经济损失量有所增加。     

区域经济-环境复合生态系统协调发展动态评价——以连云港为例

经济与环境协调发展评价是发展中国家可持续发展领域研究的热点问题。目前协调评价的模型取得了新的进展,但在应用方面多集中在现状评价,预测的案例较少;另外现有的研究多以经济子系统的发展水平与环境子系统的发展水平进行协调性评价,忽略了发展潜力这一重要变量。以连云港为分析案例,把发展潜力作为重要变量与发展水平变量相结合计算得到的综合发展指数纳入经济与环境协调评价模型中,并尝试根据系统历史与现状协调发展的演变规律运用GM(1,1)灰色模型预测系统未来的协调发展状态。现状评价与未来的预测结果表明:(1)1996—1999年连云港经济与环境系统从低级共生向环境资源的粗放利用转变;(2)2000—2006年,经济与环境的关系进入快速调整期,经济-环境复合生态系统综合发展指数不断增强,协调程度较上一阶段变化稳定;(3)到2007—2009年,环境对经济的限制作用将又逐渐显现;(4)2010—2015年,经济-环境复合生态系统整体协调度和综合发展指数都相应处于快速上升阶段。综合来看,1999年以后连云港经济-环境复合生态系统的协调度均处于0°以下,说明连云港在经济快速发展的初期往往是以环境破坏为代价的,因此在以后的发展中应主要处理好经济发展与环境保护的速度和公平问题。     

Estimating economic thresholds for pest control: an alternative procedure.

An alternative methodology to determine profit maximizing economic thresholds is developed and illustrated. An optimization problem based on the main biological and economic relations involved in determining a profit maximizing economic threshold is first advanced. From it, a more manageable model of 2 nonsimultaneous reduced-from equations is derived, which represents a simpler but conceptually and statistically sound alternative. The model recognizes that yields and pest control costs are a function of the economic threshold used. Higher (less strict) economic thresholds can result in lower yields and, therefore, a lower gross income from the sale of the product, but could also be less costly to maintain. The highest possible profits will be obtained by using the economic threshold that results in a maximum difference between gross income and pest control cost functions.