Population and prehistory I: Food-dependent population growth in constant environments

We present a demographic model that describes the feedbacks between food supply, human mortality and fertility rates, and labor availability in expanding populations, where arable land area is not limiting. This model provides a quantitative framework to describe how environment, technology, and culture interact to influence the fates of preindustrial agricultural populations. We present equilibrium conditions and derive approximations for the equilibrium population growth rate, food availability, and other food-dependent measures of population well-being. We examine how the approximations respond to environmental changes and to human choices, and find that the impact of environmental quality depends upon whether it manifests through agricultural yield or maximum (food-independent) survival rates. Human choices can complement or offset environmental effects: greater labor investments increase both population growth and well-being, and therefore can counteract lower agricultural yield, while fertility control decreases the growth rate but can increase or decrease well-being. Finally we establish equilibrium stability criteria, and argue that the potential for loss of local stability at low population growth rates could have important consequences for populations that suffer significant environmental or demographic shocks.     

Population and prehistory II: space-limited human populations in constant environments

We present a population model to examine the forces that determined the quality and quantity of human life in early agricultural societies where cultivable area is limited. The model is driven by the non-linear and interdependent relationships between the age distribution of a population, its behavior and technology, and the nature of its environment. The common currency in the model is the production of food, on which age-specific rates of birth and death depend. There is a single non-trivial equilibrium population at which productivity balances caloric needs. One of the most powerful controls on equilibrium hunger level is fertility control. Gains against hunger are accompanied by decreases in population size. Increasing worker productivity does increase equilibrium population size but does not improve welfare at equilibrium. As a case study we apply the model to the population of a Polynesian valley before European contact.     

Population structure,demography, and dynamics of mountain baboons: An interim report

Counts of 61 baboon troops (Papio cynocephalus ursinus) at four localities in the Drakensberg mountains confirmed earlier reports of a small mean troop size. This troop size of 22.49 animals changed neither with latitude nor elevation. Data from two of the sites suggested that population density increases from south to north, while a working assumption of 2.5 animals/ km² allowed us to set the population size at 7,540 animals, living in 335 troops. Both the adult sex ratio of 2.07 females/male and the immature/ adult female ratio of 1.17 were unaffected by troop size. Repeated counts from nine known troops revealed that the population is at equilibrium. © 1995 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

The Shanidar cave Proto-Neolithic human population: Aspects of demography and paleopathology

This paper presents bio-anthropological data concerning the Shanidar cave, Proto-Neolithic, Homo sapiens population at the dawn of sedentary life in SW Asia. It was proposed that changes in human organizational systems and perceived environmental contexts, as reflected by ecofacts and tool assemblages, indicating the intensification of harvesting of resources during this Proto-Neolithic cultural component, could have altered existing interrelationships between pathogens, vectors, and human hosts. The individuals comprising the skeletal collection represent both sex subcategories and most age subgroups. Further, no evidence of bio-distance has been documented between them judging from morphometrics and mensurational analyses. Paleopathological investigations of the skeletal record revealed the presence of infectious diseases, lesions of the joints, lesions of the jaws and teeth, benign tumors, hemopoietic and metabolic disorders, as well as severe traumatic conditions. Bone isotopic testing for investigations of dietary patterns indicated a diet heavily based on C3 plants, while the animal protein component was calculated to an intake of less than 10%. The paleopathological profile in conjunction with the archeometric studies, and the rest of the archaeological record present significant reflections of the lives of these Proto-Neolithic people in SW Asia, during this transitional time period.     

Image analysis of Daphnia populations: non-destructive determination of demography and biomass in cultures

SUMMARY 1. An image analysis technique was developed for the semiautomatic determination of abundance, size distribution and biomass in Daphnia cultures. This allowed detailed observations of growth, demography and biomass accumulation in live populations, avoiding artifacts caused by subsampling and sampling losses.
2. The image analysis method gave fast, non-destructive and reliable individual counts, even in cultures with high density and a large fraction of juveniles.
3. In Daphnia , animal width changes with nutritional status and growth within instar, while length changes only at the moult. Thus, estimation of individual biomass using an ellipsoidal model based on animal width gave improved biomass calculations compared to manual counting, sizing, and length : weight regressions.
4. The power of the image analysis technique for assessing population growth and size structure was demonstrated in two 40-day experiments, with Daphnia magna feeding on the green algae Selenastrum capricornutum in a two-stage chemostat system.     

Population cycles in microtines: The senescence hypothesis

Summary The cause of population cycles in microtines (voles and lemmings) remains an enigma. I propose a new solution to this problem based on a crucial feature of microtine biology, shifts in age structure, that has been ignored until now. Empirical evidence indicates that age structure must shift markedly towards older animals during declines because of three characteristics of the previous peak year: a shortened breeding season, total replacement of the breeding population from peak to decline and density-dependent social inhibition of maturation of young. Declines become inevitable as populations composed of older animals survive and reproduce poorly because of the effects of senescence, possibly interacting with the experiences of peak density and I present both theoretical and empirical evidence for this hypothesis. Although a variety of physiological systems deteriorate with aging, I focus on a crucial one — the inability of older animals to effectively maintain homeostasis in the face of environmental challenges because of a progressive deterioration in the endocrine feedback mechanisms involved in the hippocampal—hypothalamic—pituitary—adrenal axis. Microtine populations will not exhibit cycles where age structure shifts are prevented owing to extrinsic factors such as intense predation. Six testable predictions are made that can falsify this hypothesis.     

Population density and module demography in Trapa natans (Trapaceae), an annual,clonal aquatic macrophyte

The effects of population density on module demography were studied in Trapa natans L., an annual aquatic macrophyte capable of extensive clonal propagation. At low density, the floating plants produced ten times as many ramets (clonal offshoots) as those at high density. Module mortality occurred at three levels: leaf, ramet (shoot), and genet (genetic individual). There was 100-fold variation in the size of nuts containing germinable seeds. In early summer there was a highly significant linear relationship between dry mass of nuts and the total mass of ramets that each had produced. In early summer most (73–83%) of the variation in total plant biomass was attributable to variation in initial nut size. However the significance of initial nut size was diminished later in the season. The great success of the exotic weed T. natans at colonizing and monopolizing an aquatic habitat is a function of its highly productive clonal growth response to low-density conditions, combined with greater proportional allocation of biomass to reproductive structures, resulting in greatly increased nut production at low initial density. The species appears able to develop and maintain a population at extremely high density: plant buoyancy and the production of large, well-protected nuts allow rapid early growth from the sediment each year and early pre-emption of the water surface.     

The roles of demography and genetics in the early stages of colonization

Colonization success increases with the size of the founding group. Both demographic and genetic factors underlie this relationship, yet because genetic diversity normally increases with numbers of individuals, their relative importance remains unclear. Furthermore, their influence may depend on the environment and may change as colonization progresses from establishment through population growth and then dispersal. We tested the roles of genetics, demography and environment in the founding of Tribolium castaneum populations. Using three genetic backgrounds (inbred to outbred), we released individuals of four founding sizes (2–32) into two environments (natal and novel), and measured establishment success, initial population growth and dispersal. Establishment increased with founding size, whereas population growth was shaped by founding size, genetic background and environment. Population growth was depressed by inbreeding at small founding sizes, but growth rates were similar across genetic backgrounds at large founding size, an interaction indicating that the magnitude of the genetic effects depends upon founding population size. Dispersal rates increased with genetic diversity. These results suggest that numbers of individuals may drive initial establishment, but that subsequent population growth and spread, even in the first generation of colonization, can be driven by genetic processes, including both reduced growth owing to inbreeding depression, and increased dispersal with increased genetic diversity.     

ABC as a flexible framework to estimate demography over space and time: some cons,many pros

The analysis of genetic variation to estimate demographic and historical parameters and to quantitatively compare alternative scenarios recently gained a powerful and flexible approach: the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). The likelihood functions does not need to be theoretically specified, but posterior distributions can be approximated by simulation even assuming very complex population models including both natural and human‐induced processes. Prior information can be easily incorporated and the quality of the results can be analysed with rather limited additional effort. ABC is not a statistical analysis per se, but rather a statistical framework and any specific application is a sort of hybrid between a simulation and a data‐analysis study. Complete software packages performing the necessary steps under a set of models and for specific genetic markers are already available, but the flexibility of the method is better exploited combining different programs. Many questions relevant in ecology can be addressed using ABC, but adequate amount of time should be dedicated to decide among alternative options and to evaluate the results. In this paper we will describe and critically comment on the different steps of an ABC analysis, analyse some of the published applications of ABC and provide user guidelines.     

Comparative density,demography, and ranging behavior of Barbary macaques (Macaca sylvanus) in marginal and prime conifer habitats

A semiisolated study population of 162 Barbary macaques (six groups) inhabiting the Ghomaran fir forests of the Moroccan Rif mountains has a density of 6.73 individuals/km ². The adult sex ratio is 0.725, and immatures comprise 46.9% of the population. Births are seasonal, occurring from April to June, and the adult female birth rate is 0.58 per annum. Mortality appears relatively low in all age classes until old age. Group size ranges from 12 to 59 individuals, with a median value of 24. Home-range sizes vary between 3 and 9 km², with a mean of 7.2 km². Home-range overlap is approximately 80%. On the basis of macaque density, conifer density, and herding competition from domestic animals, the Ghomaran environment can be considered “marginal” compared to the Moyen Atlas. Despite the marginal habitat of the Ghomaran population, it is surprisingly similar in demographic characteristics to a Barbary macaque population in the Moyen Atlas. Two characteristics of the population dynamics in the Ghomara differentiate it from the former. (1) The mean home range is five times larger in the Ghomara, roughly inversely proportional to the sixfold decrease in macaque density, confirming Caldecott’s (1986) principle that, in macaque species, range size adjustments are a primary proximate response to poor-quality habitat. (2) Smaller groups in the marginal habitat of the Ghomara appear to have better rates of growth than small groups in prime habitat. This may result from an overall decreased home-range defensibility in marginal habitat (larger home ranges), resulting in an ecological and demographic release of small groups from the levels of intergroup competition they would normally experience in prime habitat.     

A coalescent model of background selection with recombination,demography and variation in selection coefficients

There is increasing evidence that background selection, the effects of the elimination of recurring deleterious mutations by natural selection on variability at linked sites, may be a major factor shaping genome-wide patterns of genetic diversity. To accurately quantify the importance of background selection, it is vital to have computationally efficient models that include essential biological features. To this end, a structured coalescent procedure is used to construct a model of background selection that takes into account the effects of recombination, recent changes in population size and variation in selection coefficients against deleterious mutations across sites. Furthermore, this model allows a flexible organization of selected and neutral sites in the region concerned, and has the ability to generate sequence variability at both selected and neutral sites, allowing the correlation between these two types of sites to be studied. The accuracy of the model is verified by checking against the results of forward simulations. These simulations also reveal several patterns of diversity that are in qualitative agreement with observations reported in recent studies of DNA sequence polymorphisms. These results suggest that the model should be useful for data analysis.     

Laboratory evolution of population stability in Drosophila: constancy and persistence do not necessarily coevolve

1. Despite considerable theoretical work, the evolution of population stability has rarely been investigated empirically. Moreover, it is not clear whether different stability properties of a population evolve together, or independently. 2. We investigate the evolution of two aspects of population stability using laboratory populations of Drosophila melanogaster selected for faster preadult development and early reproduction, and their matched controls. 3. We show that the constancy stability of the selected populations is significantly higher than their controls, confirming a previous observation that population stability can evolve as a by-product of life-history evolution. This enhanced constancy stability is due to a reduced maximal per capita growth rate, brought about by a reduction in fecundity of the selected populations as a result of the trade-off between developmental rate and fecundity. 4. Persistence stability, as reflected by the probability of extinction, does not differ significantly between selected and control populations. 5. We also show how seemingly trivial experimental details, such as the protocol for restarting extinct populations, can interact with life-history traits to alter the manifestation of the stability properties of a population.     

Below-threshold mortality: implications for studies in evolution,ecology and demography

Evolutionary biologists, ecologists and experimental gerontologists have increasingly used estimates of age-specific mortality as a critical component in studies of a range of important biological processes. However, the analysis of age-specific mortality rates is plagued by specific statistical challenges caused by sampling error. Here we discuss the nature of this ‘demographic sampling error’, and the way in which it can bias our estimates of (1) rates of ageing, (2) age at onset of senescence, (3) costs of reproduction and (4) demographic tests of evolutionary models of ageing. We conducted simulations which suggest that using standard statistical techniques, we would need sample sizes on the order of tens of thousands in most experiments to effectively remove any bias due to sampling error. We argue that biologists should use much larger sample sizes than have previously been used. However, we also present simple maximum likelihood models that effectively remove biases due to demographic sampling error even at relatively small sample sizes.     

Alternate plant life history strategies and coexistence in randomly varying environments

Environmental fluctuations can in theory allow the coexistence ofecologically similar species by time-sharing a niche, as envisioned by Hutchinson. The evolution of this situation is studied in a competition model, using as an example the evolution of seed germination strategies. Coexistence occurs via the evolution of low-risk and high-risk strategies for dealing with the variability by different species. Coexistence is promoted by intermediate levels of variability or disturbance, and by a trade-off between seed yield and seed survivorship. These results may be applicable also to other low vs. high risk life history options in unpredictably varying environments, such as: stress resistance vs. potentially rapid growth, high adult survivorship vs. high reproductive output. The model's predictions differ from those obtained without consideration of life history evolution in response to environmental variability, and are consistent with some recent studies of plant strategies in intermittently stressed communities.I thank A. Shmida for many discussions on this topic, D. Cohen and I. Noy-Meir for comments after a seminar presentation of this paper, and H. de Kroon, H. During, and E. Van der Maarel for decreasing my ignorance of the empirical literature.Research conducted while the author was recipient of a Sir Charles Clore Postdoctoral Fellowship in the Department of Applied Mathematics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel.     

Contrasting patterns of population subdivision and historical demography in three western Mediterranean lizard species inferred from mitochondrial DNA variation

Pleistocene climatic oscillations were a major force shaping genetic variability in many taxa. We analyse the relative effects of the ice ages across a latitudinal gradient in the Western Mediterranean region, testing two main predictions: (i) species with historical distributions in northern latitudes should have experienced greater loss of suitable habitat, resulting in higher extinction of historical lineages than species distributed in southern latitudes, where the effects of the ice ages were not as drastic. This would be reflected in the observation of lower diversity and number of differentiated lineages in northern areas. (ii) a signature of demographic expansion following the climate amelioration should be obvious in northern species, whereas in the south evidence of long-term effective population size stability should be observed. We used as models three species of wall lizards (Podarcis bocagei, Podarcis carbonelli and Podarcis vaucheri) that replace each other along the study area. We investigated the patterns of mitochondrial DNA diversity and subdivision and obtained demographic parameter estimates for each species. Our results suggest that P. bocagei, the northernmost species, bears low genetic diversity, a shallow coalescent history and marks of a demographic expansion. In contrast, P. vaucheri, the species with a southernmost distribution, shows deeper coalescence events, complex geographical substructure and no evidence for population growth. The species with an intermediate distribution, P. carbonelli, shows average levels of diversity, substructure and population growth. Taken together, these results conform to our main predictions and are explained by a differential influence of the ice ages on distinct latitudes.     

Wealth, status, and fitness: a historical study of Norwegians in variable environments

Wealth and status covary with lifetime reproductive success in preindustrial human populations. Local ecology is likely to modify this association, but details of this presumed relationship are not yet known. We sought to determine whether local ecology modifies the relationship between status and fitness (number of grandchildren). Our approach to the problem was to measure variation in fitness relative to status (landless or with land) and to local ecology (inland versus coastal communities). We also analyzed life history traits that might explain observed variations in fitness. Our results confirm previous findings that both status (landless=9.9 vs. with land=16.5) and ecology (inland=12.3 vs. coast=14.1) affect the number of grandchildren produced by a female in pre-industrial society. We also found that the differences in number of children between the status groups were less pronounced on the coast (landless=12.0 vs. with land=16.1) than inland (landless=7.8 vs. with land=16.8). Our findings are novel because they suggest that the fitness consequences of human status may depend on details of local ecology. We discuss four different mechanisms that could account for these fitness differences: (1) differential reproductive rate of mothers, (2) differential marriage rate of children (3) differential survival rate of children, and (4) different social practices (breastfeeding, inheritance of property and diet).     

The balance between sexual and asexual reproduction in plants living in variable environments

The balance between sexual and asexual propagule production is studied in an evolutionary model where plants produce the two kinds of propagules in genetically determined proportions. The male function of plants producing asexual propagules can be varied, and the sexual and asexual propagules carry different probabilities to turn into new reproductive individuals. These fitnesses may vary over years. The evolution of the population’s reproductive system is studied assuming modifier alleles with small effects. In this setting a balanced, mixed reproductive system can evolve, but only if the difference in fitness between the sexual and asexual propagules varies over years. When the two kinds of propagules are very similar to each other, as is often the case with sexual and asexual seed formation, evolution will tend towards a state dominated by the one or the other reproductive system.