Assessment of the daily ragweed pollen concentration with previous-day meteorological variables using regression and quantile regression analysis for Szeged,Hungary

Time-varying parametric linear and time-varying nonparametric regression models as well as a time-varying nonparametric median regression model are developed to predict the daily pollen concentration for Szeged in Hungary using previous-day meteorological parameters and the daily pollen concentration. The models are applied to rainy days and non-rainy days, respectively. The most important predictor is the previous-day pollen concentration level, and the only other predictor retained by a stepwise regression procedure is the daily mean global solar flux for rainy days and the daily mean temperature for non-rainy days. Although the variance percentage explained by these two predictors is higher for non-rainy (55.2%) days than for rainy (51.9%) days, the prediction rate is slightly better for rainy than for non-rainy days. Nonparametric regression yields substantially better estimates, especially for rainy days indicating a nonlinear relationship between the predictors and the pollen concentration. The explained variance percentage is 71.4 and 64.6% for rainy and non-rainy days, respectively. Concerning the mean absolute error, the nonparametric median regression provides the best estimate. The quantile regression shows that probability distribution of daily ragweed concentration is much more skewed for non-rainy days, while the more concentrated probability distribution for rainy days exhibits relatively stable ragweed pollen concentrations. The possible lowest limits of concentrations are also calculated. Under highly favorable conditions for peak concentrations, the pollen level reaches at least 350 grains m⁻³ and 450 grains m⁻³ for rainy and non-rainy days, respectively. These values again underline the excessive ragweed pollen load over the area of Szeged.     

Airborne ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) pollen concentrations in Croatia, 2002–2004

The aim of this study was to determine the onset, length and end of the ragweed pollen season, taking into account diurnal, day-to-day, monthly and annual pollen variations, the effect of some meteorological parameters on atmospheric pollen concentrations and possible differences in the airborne pollen season and concentration due to sampling site. Airborne pollen was collected at three sites in central Croatia (Zagreb, Samobor and Ivanić Grad) during three pollen seasons (2002–2004). Seven-day Hirst-type volumetric pollen traps were used for pollen sampling. Ragweed pollen was the third most abundant pollen type to occur in the atmosphere of central Croatia. Total Ambrosia pollen concentration was the highest in the 2003 pollen season and the lowest in 2004 at all sampling sites. Maximum emissions were restricted to August and September. Intradiurnal periodicity showed a peak from 1000 to 1200 hours. The concentration of ragweed pollen during the pollen season was greatly influenced by temperature and precipitation: on rainy days accompanied by temperature decline, the air pollen concentration decreased abruptly. The results of this study are aimed at helping to alleviate the symptoms of allergic reactions in individuals with ragweed pollen hypersensitivity, thus improving their quality of life.     

Atmospheric conditions during high ragweed pollen concentrations in Zagreb,Croatia

We examined the atmospheric conditions favourable to the occurrence of maximum concentrations of ragweed pollen with an extremely high risk of producing allergy. Over the 2002–2009 period, daily pollen data collected in Zagreb were used to identify two periods of high pollen concentration (> 600 grains/m³) for our analysis: period A (3–4 September 2002) and period B (6–7 September 2003). Synoptic conditions in both periods were very similar: Croatia was under the influence of a lower sector high pressure system moving slowly eastward over Eastern Europe. During the 2002–2009 period, this type of weather pattern (on ~ 70% of days), in conjunction with almost non-gradient surface pressure conditions in the area (on ~ 30% of days) characterised days when the daily pollen concentrations were higher than 400 grains/m³. Numerical experiments using a mesoscale model at fine resolution showed successful multi-day simulations reproducing the local topographic influence on wind flow and in reasonable agreement with available observations. According to the model, the relatively weak synoptic flow (predominantly from the eastern direction) allowed local thermal circulations to develop over Zagreb during both high pollen episodes. Two-hour pollen concentrations and 48-h back-trajectories indicated that regional-range transport of pollen grains from the central Pannonian Plain was the cause of the high pollen concentrations during period A. During period B, the north-westward regional-range transport in Zagreb was supplemented significantly by pronounced horizontal recirculation of pollen grains. This recirculation happened within the diurnal local circulation over the city, causing a late-evening increase in pollen concentration.     

Modeling the dispersion of Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. pollen with the model system COSMO-ART

Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) is a highly allergenic plant that is spreading throughout Europe. Ragweed pollen can be transported over large distances by the wind. Even low pollen concentrations of less than 10 pollen m(-3) can lead to health problems in sensitive persons. Therefore, forecasting the airborne concentrations of ragweed pollen is becoming more and more important for public health. The question remains whether distant pollen sources need to be considered in reliable forecasts. We used the extended numerical weather prediction system COSMO-ART to simulate the release and transport of ragweed pollen in central Europe. A pollen episode (September 12-16, 2006) in north-eastern Germany was modeled in order to find out where the pollen originated. For this purpose, several different source regions were taken into account and their individual impact on the daily mean pollen concentration and the performance of the forecast were studied with the means of a 2?×?2 contingency table and skill scores. It was found that the majority of the pollen originated in local areas, but up to 20% of the total pollen load came from distant sources in Hungary. It is concluded that long-distance transport should not be neglected when predicting pollen concentrations.     

Poaceae pollen in the atmosphere of Zagreb (Croatia), 2002 – 2005

Pollen of grasses (Poaceae) is one of the most important airborne allergen sources worldwide. The aim of the study was to determine diurnal, day‐to‐day, weekly, monthly and annual pollen variation, and the effect of selected meteorological parameters on atmospheric pollen concentrations in Zagreb. A preliminary study was carried out during four seasons (2002 – 2005), using a 7‐day VPPS 2000 Hirst volumetric pollen trap. Total annual grass pollen concentrations in Zagreb were constant (2 673 – 3 074 p.g.m^?3), with a relative drop in 2004 (1 196 p.g.m^?3). The beginning of the grass pollen season is usually observed when the average daily temperature exceeds 13.5°C (max. daily temp. 19.5°C), without precipitation. In all four study years the absolute peak of concentrations occurs in the second half of May. The length of pollen season during the study period was 157 – 173 days. A high variability was observed in the maximal concentration and in the number of days when grass pollen concentration exceeded the threshold value of 30 p.g.m^?3 (9 – 40 days). Statistically significant correlations were found between airborne grass pollen concentrations and air temperature, level of precipitation and relative humidity.     

Source regions of ragweed pollen arriving in south-western Poland and the influence of meteorological data on the HYSPLIT model results

We have investigated the relationship between the inflow of air masses and the ragweed pollen concentration in SW Poland (Wroc?aw) for a 10-year period of 2005–2014. The HYSPLIT trajectory model was used to verify whether episodes of high concentrations can be related to regions outside of the main known ragweed centres in Europe, like Pannonian Plain, northern Italy and Ukraine. Furthermore, we used two different meteorological data sets (the global GDAS data set and from the WRF mesoscale model; the meteorological parameters were: U and V wind components, temperature and relative humidity) into HYSPLIT to evaluate the influence of meteorological input on calculated trajectories for high concentration ragweed episodes. The results show that the episodes of high pollen concentration (above 20 pm^?3) represent a great part of total recorded ragweed pollen in Wroc?aw, but occur rarely and not in all years. High pollen episodes are connected with air masses coming from south and south-west Europe, which confirms the existence of expected ragweed centres but showed that other centres near Wroc?aw are not present. The HYSPLIT simulations with two different meteorological inputs indicated that footprint studies on ragweed benefit from a higher resolution meteorological data sets.     

A mathematical model for mugwort (Artemisia vulgaris L.) pollen forecasts

Pollen forecasts are a fundamental prerequisite to obtain prophylactic measures for allergic individuals. Mugwort belongs to the most relevant allergenic pollen types after grasses and birch. An approach to modeling of mugwort pollen concentrations has not been attempted previously in Germany. A process-oriented mathematical model for the relative local daily average mugwort airborne pollen concentration was developed on the basis of pollen and weather data measured during a 6-year period. The model depends on the daily minimum and maximum temperature, amount of precipitation and atmospheric pressure, which have to and can be supplied by measurement and prediction. The comparison of modeling results and pollen counting for an additional year confirms the fitness of the model. A computer program was written, which rests upon the model and supplies daily predictions of mugwort pollen flight during the period of the weather forecast. The latter should allow a pollen forecasting period of about 5 days, with an accuracy of about 32–63% explained variance, which in view of the low mugwort pollen counts (nine grains/m³ maximum in the validation year) represents a high relative measurement error. The mathematical model may serve to improve and rationalize of present pollen forecasts.     

Seasonal distribution of pollen in the atmosphere of Darwin,tropical Australia: Preliminary results

Pollen loads in the atmosphere of Darwin, a city located in the wet‐dry tropics of Australia, have been monitored for the period March 2004 to November 2005 as part of a large research program looking at atmospheric particles and human health. Seven pollen types dominate the pollen spectrum, the herbaceous families of Poaceae (grasses) and Cyperaceae (sedges), as well as several native tree and shrub taxa, Acacia, Callitris, Casuarina, Arecaceae and Myrtaceae. The pollen loads were found to have a strong seasonal component associated with the alternating wet (November to March) and dry (April to October) seasons of the region. Seventy percent of the yearly pollen load is captured during the dry season, with the peak pollen period occurring at the onset of the dry season (April–May) when most grasses are in flower. The daily pollen concentration decreases as the dry season progresses, accompanied by a change in composition; fewer herbaceous but increasing woody taxa. Preliminary health outcomes reveal a positive association between hay fever, Poaceae and Acacia pollen, as well as a significant association between total fungal spore concentrations and asthma. The Darwin record contrasts significantly with surveys conducted in the subtropical and temperate cities of Australia where temperature as opposed to rainfall and the prevalence of northern hemisphere exotic tree species have a greater influence over the seasonality and composition of the pollen loads.     

On the causes of variability in amounts of airborne grass pollen in Melbourne,Australia

In Melbourne, Australia, airborne grass pollen is the predominant cause of hay fever (seasonal rhinitis) during late spring and early summer, with levels of airborne grass pollen also influencing hospital admissions for asthma. In order to improve predictions of conditions that are potentially hazardous to susceptible individuals, we have sought to better understand the causes of diurnal, intra-seasonal and inter-seasonal variability of atmospheric grass pollen concentrations (APC) by analysing grass pollen count data for Melbourne for 16 grass pollen seasons from 1991 to 2008 (except 1994 and 1995). Some of notable features identified in this analysis were that on days when either extreme (>100 pollen grains m⁻³) or high (50–100 pollen grains m⁻³) levels of grass pollen were recorded the winds were of continental origin. In contrast, on days with a low (<20 pollen grains m^-3) concentration of grass pollen, winds were of maritime origin. On extreme and high grass pollen days, a peak in APC occurred on average around 1730 hours, probably due to a reduction in surface boundary layer turbulence. The sum of daily APC for each grass pollen season was highly correlated (r = 0.79) with spring rainfall in Melbourne for that year, with about 60% of a declining linear trend across the study period being attributable to a reduction of meat cattle and sheep (and hence grazing land) in rural areas around Melbourne. Finally, all of the ten extreme pollen events (3 days or more with APC > 100 pollen grains m⁻³) during the study period were characterised by an average downward vertical wind anomaly in the surface boundary layer over Melbourne. Together these findings form a basis for a fine resolution atmospheric general circulation model for grass pollen in Melbourne’s air that can be used to predict daily (and hourly) APC. This information will be useful to those sectors of Melbourne’s population that suffer from allergic problems.     

Variations in mugwort (Artemisia spp.) airborne pollen concentrations at three sites in central Croatia, in period from 2002 to 2003

In spite of the low atmospheric pollen levels, Artemisia sensitisation and allergy has been reported widely. The aim of the study was to determine the length of pollen season, intradiurnal, daily and monthly pollen variation, and the effect of some meteorological parameters on atmospheric pollen concentrations in Central Croatia. Seven-day Hirst volumetric pollen and spore traps were used for pollen sampling. The Artemisia pollen season lasted from the end of July until the end of September with the highest concentrations in August. The percentage of the total pollen count ranged from 0.52% to 0.92%. The intradiurnal peak occurred between 10 a.m. and 12 a.m. Statistical analysis showed a significant correlations between higher air temperature and high pollen concentration as well as high precipitation and low pollen concentration. Results of this study are expected to help in preventing the symptoms of allergic reaction in individuals with Artemisia pollen hypersensitivity.     

Airborne pollen characteristics and the influence of temperature and precipitation in Raleigh,North Carolina,USA (1999–2012)

The incidence of allergic diseases has been increasing in recent decades, in part due to increased exposure to aeroallergens, particularly pollen. Allergic diseases have a major burden on the health care system, with annual costs in the USA alone exceeding $30 billion. There is evidence that the production of aeroallergens, including pollen, is increasing in response to environmental and climatic change, which has important implications for the treatment of allergy sufferers. In this study, pollen data from a Rotorod sampler in Raleigh, North Carolina, was used to characterize and examine trends in the atmospheric pollen seasons for trees, grasses, and weeds over the period 1999–2012. The influence of mean monthly antecedent and concurrent temperature and precipitation on the timing, duration, and severity of the pollen seasons was assessed using Pearson’s product-moment correlation coefficients and multiple linear regression models. An increasing trend was noted in seasonal tree pollen concentrations, while seasonal and peak weed pollen concentrations declined over time. The atmospheric pollen seasons for grasses and weeds trended toward earlier start dates and longer durations, while the tree pollen season trended toward an earlier end date. Peak daily tree pollen concentrations were strongly associated with antecedent temperature and precipitation, while peak daily grass pollen concentrations were strongly associated with concurrent precipitation. The strongest relationships between climate and weed pollen were associated with the timing and duration of the pollen season, with drier antecedent and warmer concurrent conditions tied to longer weed pollen seasons.     

Monitoring of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ambrosia</Emphasis> pollen concentration in the atmosphere of Bratislava (Slovakia) during years 2002–2007

Ambrosia pollen represents a significant allergenic risk for pollen-sensitive people also in Slovakia. The aim of this study was to compare the results of the monitoring of Ambrosia pollen concentrations and pollen seasons in Bratislava during years 2002–2007. Measurements were performed by the volumetric method using Burkard volumetric spore trap at the height of 10 m above ground level. During six monitored years, a total of 11,334 Ambrosia pollen grains per cubic meter of air were recorded. The highest total ragweed pollen amount was detected in 2002 (2,577 pollen grains of the total annual pollen concentration) and the lowest ragweed pollen concentration (1,213 pollen grains) was determined in 2007. However, mentioned year was represented as the year with the longest pollen season among the all monitored years in Bratislava (41 days). The pollen season peak day of 2002, 2004, 2005 and 2006 was recorded at the beginning of September; in 2003 and 2007 the peak was at the second half of August. The highest daily amount of Ambrosia pollen grains (more than 100 grains per cubic meter of air) was in 2002 (12 days). The results can be utilized to help to prevent symptoms of allergic reactions to Ambrosia pollen and improve quality of life during seasonal allergic diseases in ragweed pollen-sensitive people.     

Ragweed pollen: The aeroallergen is spreading in Italy

Presently in Europe, ragweed pollen as an aeroallergen is not as important as Poaceae,Parietaria or Betulaceae, even if in some countries the plant is beginning to influence the local composition of the airborne pollen spectra. In northern Italy, the presence of ragweed airborne pollen has only been reported since the beginning of the 1980’s and it is increasingly spreading from year to year. Given this situation, the allergologists have begun to regard the potential risk of sensitisation to ragweed pollen with much attention. Up to now, such pollen has not been included in the routine allergological tests. In 1995 in some sites of northern Italy (Turin, Milan, Trieste), the concentration values of ragweed pollen were remarkable (∼ 20–30 p/m³) and on the increase with respect to the previous years. This investigation aims at focusing the atmospheric concentration trend on this new aeroallergen (Ambrosia sp.) in Italy from 1991 throughout 1995.     

Meteorological variables connected with airborne ragweed pollen in Southern Hungary

About 30% of the Hungarian population has some type of allergy, 65% of them have pollen sensitivity, and at least 60% of this pollen sensitivity is caused by ragweed. The short (or common) ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia = Ambrosia elatior) has the most aggressive pollen of all. Clinical investigations prove that its allergenic pollen is the main reason for the most massive, most serious and most long-lasting pollinosis. The air in the Carpathian Basin is the most polluted with ragweed pollen in Europe. The aim of the study is to analyse how ragweed pollen concentration is influenced by meteorological elements in a medium-sized city, Szeged, Southern Hungary. The data basis consists of daily ragweed pollen counts and averages of 11 meteorological parameters for the 5-year daily data set, between 1997 and 2001. The study considers some of the ragweed pollen characteristics for Szeged. Application of the Makra test indicates the same period for the highest pollen concentration as that established by the main pollination period. After performing factor analysis for the daily ragweed pollen counts and the 11 meteorological variables examined, four factors were retained that explain 84.4% of the total variance of the original 12 variables. Assessment of the daily pollen number was performed by multiple regression analysis and results based on deseasonalised and original data were compared.     

The influence of temperature,relative humidity and rainfall on the occurrence of pollen allergens (Betula,Poaceae, Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in the atmosphere of Bratislava (Slovakia)

The occurrence of pollen grains in the atmosphere markedly relates to meteorological factors. In the study we have evaluated a correlation between the concentration of pollen grains in the atmosphere of Bratislava and temperature, relative humidity and rainfall during the vegetation period of 1995 and 1997. For our analysis we have selected one representative of each phytoallergen group (trees, grasses, weeds). We have chosen the Betula genus of trees, the whole Poaceae family of grasses and ragweed Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. to represent weeds. The taxons mentioned represent the most significant allergens in Slovakia. The concentration of pollen grains has been monitored by a Lanzoni volumetric pollen trap. The data obtained, the average daily concentration in 1 m(3), have been included in the statistical analysis together with values for the average daily temperature, relative humidity and total rainfall in 24 h. The correlation between the concentration of pollen grains in the atmosphere and selected meteorological variables from daily monitoring has been studied with the help of linear regression and correlation coefficients. We have found the average daily temperature and relative humidity (less than temperature) to be significant factors influencing the occurrence of pollen grains in the atmosphere of Bratislava. The total daily rainfall does not seem to be significant from the statistical point of view.     

Poaceae pollen concentrations in the atmosphere of three inland Croatian sites (2003-2004)

The aim of the study was to determine the length of Poaceae pollen season, intradiurnal, daily and monthly pollen variation, and the effect of some meteorological parameters on atmospheric pollen concentration, at three monitoring sites in inland Croatia during the 2003-2004 period. Seven-day Hirst volumetric pollen and spore traps were used for pollen sampling. At all three monitoring sites considerably higher precipitation and lower average temperature in 2004 led to a marked decrease in the grass pollen concentration in the air at all three monitoring sites. The highest grass pollen concentrations were recorded in Ivani? Grad (typical rural area), considerably lower in Samobor (effect of forest vegetation), and lowest in Zagreb (urban area). The highest atmospheric Poaceae pollen concentrations in inland Croatia were generally recorded in May and June. The highest intradiurnal concentrations were recorded between 8.00 and 12.00 a.m. Results of this aeropalynologic study are expected to help in preventing the symptoms of allergic reaction in individuals with Poaceae pollen hypersensitivity.     

Allergenic Asteraceae in air particulate matter: quantitative DNA analysis of mugwort and ragweed

Mugwort (Artemisia vulgaris) and ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) are highly allergenic Asteraceae. They often cause pollen allergies in late summer and fall. While mugwort is native to Europe, ragweed reached Europe as a neophyte from North America about 150 years ago and continued spreading ever since. To understand possible relationships between the spread of ragweed, its abundance in air, and to judge possible health risks for the public, we quantified ragweed DNA in inhalable fine as well as in coarse air particulate matter. Mugwort was chosen for comparison, as it is closely related to ragweed and grows in similar, though mainly not identical, habitats but is native to Germany. The DNA quantification was performed on atmospheric aerosol samples collected over a period of 5 years in central Europe. The DNA concentrations were highest during the characteristic pollination periods but varied greatly between different years. In the inhalable fine particle fraction, ragweed exceeds the mugwort DNA concentration fivefold, while the coarse particle fraction, bearing intact pollen grains, contains more mugwort than ragweed DNA. The higher allergenic potential of ragweed might be linked to the humidity or long-range transport-induced bursting of ragweed pollen into smaller allergenic particles, which may reach the lower airways and cause more intense allergic reactions. Airborne ragweed DNA was detected also outside the local pollination periods, which can be explained by atmospheric long-range transport. Back-trajectory analyses indicate that the air masses containing ragweed DNA during winter had originated in regions with milder climate and large ragweed populations (Southern France, Carpathian Basin).     

27. Fuente del Vaquero peat bog (Basque Country,Northern Iberian Peninsula,Spain)

Inhaled particle deposition sites must be identified to effectively treat human airway diseases. We have determined distribution patterns of a selected aeroallergen, ragweed pollen, among human extrathoracic (ET: i.e., oro-nasopharyngeal) regions and the lung. A predictive model validated by inhalation exposure data from human subjects was utilized. Deposition locations were primarily functions of 1. ragweed particle parameters (size: 14–20 μm, shape: spherical, and density: 1.14 g cm^-3) and 2. mode of breathing. In the general population, two styles of inhalation are prevalent: normal augmentors (NAs), and mouth breathers (MBs), their clinical definitions are based on intra-ET airflow divisions. For a NA-mode breathing, sedentary (10 L min^-1) adult, 88% of inhaled ragweed pollen was removed by the ET compartment and 7% collected within the lung. For a MB, the respective deposition efficiencies were 68% and 25%. To apply the model, we used a daily springtime ragweed pollen concentration of 300 grains m^-3 and an exposure time of 0.5 hour to calculate actual doses for the respiratory system. Under the stipulated conditions, a MB would inhale 45 pollen grains per day and 8 would be deposited in the lung; the value is 3 grains for a NA. Frequently, individuals with impaired respiratory functions are MBs in whom such pollen deposits are likely contributors to airway disease.     

A 10-year survey of allergenic airborne pollen in the city of Porto (Portugal)

Airborne pollen calendars are useful to estimate the flowering season of the different plants as well as to indicate the allergenic potential present in the atmosphere at a given time. In this study, it is presented a 10-year survey of the atmospheric concentration of allergenic pollen types. Airborne pollen was performed, from 2003 to 2012, using a 7-day Hirst-type volumetric trap. The interannual variation of the daily mean concentration of the number of pollen grains and the main pollen season was determined as well as the hourly variations and correlation with meteorological parameters. During the study period, 18 different allergenic pollen types were considered based on its representativeness on the total annual airborne pollen concentration. The lowest annual concentrations were sampled in 2006 and the highest in 2007. The highest airborne pollen concentration was found during early spring and early summer. On the contrary, December was the month with the lowest pollen concentration. The major pollen sampled belongs to trees followed by weeds and grasses, being the most representative pollen types in the atmosphere: Urticaceae, Platanus, Poaceae, Pinaceae, Cupressaceae, Acer, Quercus, Castanea, Plantago, Alnus, Olea europaea, Betula, Myrtaceae and Populus. Intradiurnal distribution patterns of the pollen types studied presented differences with some taxa being predominantly sampled in the morning (9–11 a.m.) while others in first night hours (between 9 and 12 p.m.). Significantly correlations were found between the airborne pollen concentration and meteorological parameters.     

Ragweed and mugwort pollen in Szczecin, Poland

Ragweed (genus Ambrosia) and mugwort (Artemisia vulgaris) pollen grains are known to be very potent aeroallergens, often noted to enter into cross reactions. The aim of the study was to analyse ragweed and mugwort pollen release in Szczecin (western Poland) during the period 2000–2003. Measurements were performed by the volumetric and gravimetric method. Pollen seasons were defined as the periods of 90% of the total catch. Of the 4 years studied, the lowest concentration of ragweed pollen was observed in 2000. In 2000, the annual ragweed pollen count was very high, threefold higher than in 2001. There was a high Ambrosia pollen count in 2003, with the highest daily value of 84 grains/m³. The mugwort pollen season started in the third 10-day period of July and lasted to the end of August in all of the years studied. Analysis of pollen deposition from different Szczecin city’s districts showed that the highest exposure to ragweed pollen allergens occurred in the Majowe district, which is related to the presence of numerous plants of Ambrosia in that district. The mugwort pollen deposition was more abundant in the Żelechowa district, which is an area with villas and gardens. Statistically significant correlations were found between the ragweed pollen count in the air and the maximum wind speed, air temperature and relative humidity and between the mugwort pollen count in the air and air temperature and relative humidity.