Population structure and colonization history of the olive fly, Bactrocera oleae (Diptera, Tephritidae)

The olive fly, Bactrocera oleae, is the major pest of olives in most commercial olive-growing regions worldwide. The species is abundant in the Mediterranean basin and has been introduced recently into California and Mexico, creating problems for quarantine protection and international trade. Here, we use nuclear microsatellite markers and mitochondrial sequences to examine the history of olive fly range expansion and colonization. Sampled populations span the current distribution of the olive fly worldwide, including South and Central Africa, Pakistan, Mediterranean Europe and Middle East, California, and Mexico. The Pakistani populations appear to be genetically well differentiated from the remaining populations, though rooting the origins of the species is problematic. Genetic similarity and assignment tests cluster the remaining populations into two genetic groups--Africa and a group including the Mediterranean basin and the American region. That Africa, and not the Mediterranean, is the origin of flies infesting cultivated olive is supported by the significantly greater genetic diversity at microsatellite loci in Africa relative to the Mediterranean area. The results also indicate that the recent invasion of olive flies in the American region most likely originated from the Mediterranean area.     

Insecticidal activity of strains of Bacillus thuringiensis on larvae and adults of Bactrocera oleae Gmelin (Dipt. Tephritidae).

The olive fly, Bactrocera oleae, is the key pest on olives in the Mediterranean area. The pest can destroy, in some cases, up to 70% of the olive production. Its control relies mainly on chemical treatments, sometimes applied by aircraft over vast areas, with their subsequent ecological and toxicological side effects. Bacillus thuringiensis is a spore-forming soil bacterium which produces a protein crystal toxic to some insects, including the orders of Lepidoptera, Diptera, and Coleoptera and other invertebrates. The aim of this study was to search for isolates toxic to B. oleae. Several hundred B. thuringiensis isolates were obtained from olive groves and olive presses in different areas of Greece, Sardinia (Italy), and Spain and from cooperating scientists throughout the world. Some isolates were found toxic only to adults or larvae and some to both stages of the olive fly. In addition, the most toxic isolates were assayed on Opius concolor Szepl. (Hym. Braconidae), the most important parasitoid of the olive fruit fly. Only 3 isolates out of 14 gave significant mortality against this parasitoid. Several of the most toxic crystalliferous isolates may contain novel toxins since they gave no PCR products when probed with primers specified for 39 known toxin genes.     

The current and future potential geographical distribution of the oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae)

The oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel), is a major pest throughout South East Asia and in a number of Pacific Islands. As a result of their widespread distribution, pest status, invasive ability and potential impact on market access, B. dorsalis and many other fruit fly species are considered major threats to many countries. CLIMEX was used to model the potential global distribution of B. dorsalis under current and future climate scenarios. Under current climatic conditions, its projected potential distribution includes much of the tropics and subtropics and extends into warm temperate areas such as southern Mediterranean Europe. The model projects optimal climatic conditions for B. dorsalis in the south-eastern USA, where the principle range-limiting factor is likely to be cold stress. As a result of climate change, the potential global range for B. dorsalis is projected to extend further polewards as cold stress boundaries recede. However, the potential range contracts in areas where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially. The significant increases in the potential distribution of B. dorsalis projected under the climate change scenarios suggest that the World Trade Organization should allow biosecurity authorities to consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. One of the most significant areas of uncertainty in climate change concerns the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results are provided that span the range of standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios. The impact on the projected distribution of B. dorsalis is striking, but affects the relative abundance of the fly within the total suitable range more than the total area of climatically suitable habitat.     

Mitochondrial haplotypes reveal olive fly (Bactrocera oleae) population substructure in the Mediterranean

The olive fly (Bactrocera oleae) is the most important olive tree (Olea europaea) pest. In the Mediterranean basin, where 98?% of its main hosts are concentrated, it causes major agricultural losses, due to its negative effect on production and quality of both olive and olive oil. Previous phylogeographic analyses have established that Mediterranean olive fly populations are distinct from other Old World populations, but did not agree on the specific population substructure within this region. In order to achieve a higher resolution of the diversity of olive fly populations, particularly in Central and Western Mediterranean (home to 70?% of the world production), we comparatively analyzed a set of samples from Portugal in the context of published mitochondrial sequences across the species' worldwide range. Strong evidence of population substructure was found in the Central and Western Mediterranean area, with two clearly separate phylogenetic branches. Together with previously published data, our results strongly support the existence of at least three distinct Mediterranean populations of the olive fly, raise the possibility of additional regional substructure and suggest specific avenues for future research. This knowledge can be instrumental in the development of better management and control strategies for a major pest of Mediterranean agriculture.     

Prospects for improving biological control of olive fruit fly,Bactrocera oleae (Diptera: Tephritidae), with introduced parasitoids (Hymenoptera)

Olive fruit fly is a key pest of olive and consequently a serious threat to olive fruit and oil production throughout the Mediterranean region. With the establishment of Bactrocera oleae in California a decade ago, interest was renewed in classical (introduction) biological control of the pest. Here we discuss the prospects of identifying natural enemies of B. oleae in Africa and Asia that may help reduce B. oleae populations in California and elsewhere. Based on the current understanding of Bactrocera phylogenetics, early opinions that B. oleae originated in Africa or western Asia rather than the Mediterranean region or the Near East are taxonomically and ecologically supportable. Closely related to cultivated olive, the wild olive Olea europaea cuspidata is widely distributed in southern and eastern Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and eastwards into Asia as far as southwestern China. Little is known regarding the biology and ecology of B. oleae in Africa and eastern Asia, especially in wild olives. While the diversity of parasitoids of B. oleae in the Mediterranean region is low and unspecialized, a diverse assemblage of parasitoids is known from B. oleae in Africa. Conversely, regions in Asia have remained largely unexplored for B. oleae and its natural enemies.     

Effect of heat stress on survival and reproduction of the olive fruit fly Bactocera (Dacus) oleae

The olive fruit fly Bactrocera (Dacus) oleae Gmelin is a major olive pest in Greece and other Mediterranean countries. Its population density and respective olive infestation is usually low in many areas of northern Greece during summer months. To some extent, this may be due to the prevailing high temperature and low relative humidity conditions. In the present work the effects of short term exposure to high temperatures on the survival and egg production of B. oleae pre‐imaginal stages and adults were studied under laboratory conditions. Different larval instars within infested green olive fruits, adults and pupae and were exposed for 2 h to a series of different high constant temperatures ranging from 34 to 42°C. Subsequently, survival percentages of pre‐imaginal stages and adults as well as the number of eggs laid by females previously exposed to high temperatures were determined. At temperatures up to 38°C high survival percentages of larvae and adults were observed, whereas pupae displayed a relatively increased heat tolerance up to 40°C. Female longevity and egg production were substantially reduced after heat stress. Prior acclimation at 33°C for 1 and 3 days resulted in increased adult survival following heat stress. We discuss the results with respect to the ability of the fly to survive and reproduce under high summer temperatures.     

Climate and host plant availability impact the future distribution of the bean leaf beetle (Cerotoma trifurcata)

The bean leaf beetle, Cerotoma trifurcata, has become a major pest of soybean throughout its North American range. With a changing climate, there is the potential for this pest to further expand its distribution and become an increasingly severe pest in certain regions. To examine this possibility, we developed bioclimatic envelope models for both the bean leaf beetle, and its most important agronomic host plant, soybean (Glycine max). These two models were combined to examine the potential future pest status of the beetle using climate change projections from multiple general circulation models (GCMs) and climate change scenarios. Despite the broad tolerances of soybean, incorporation of host plant availability substantially decreased the suitable and favourable areas for the bean leaf beetle as compared to an evaluation based solely on the climate envelope of the beetle, demonstrating the importance of incorporating biotic interactions in these predictions. The use of multiple GCM–scenario combinations also revealed differences in predictions depending on the choice of GCM, with scenario choice having less of an impact. While the Norwegian model predicted little northward expansion of the beetle from its current northern range limit of southern Ontario and overall decreases in suitable and favourable areas over time, the Canadian and Russian models predict that much of Ontario and Quebec will become suitable for the beetle in the future, as well as Manitoba under the Russian model. The Russian model also predicts expansion of the suitable and favourable areas for the beetle over time. Two predictions that do not depend on our choice of GCM include a decrease in suitability of the Mississippi Delta region and continued favourability of the southeastern United States.     

Microsatellite analysis revealed a different approach of control of olive fly population (Bactrocera oleae) in Slovenia

The olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae Gmelin) is the most important olive pest in the north‐eastern Adriatic coast region. Despite the importance of olive production in the region, and the significance of the olive fruit fly, no information with respect to genetic diversity, population structure or dispersion patterns of this pest is available. The aims of this study were to investigate the genetic structure of the olive fly population in the Slovenian Istria region using microsatellite markers to determine olive fruit fly migration between locations and to establish an appropriate and effective strategy for controlling the pest population. Analysis was performed on a sample of 117 flies, collected from attacked olive fruits at three different locations. Olive fruit flies were genotyped using eight microsatellite loci. Sixty‐six alleles were identified over all microsatellite loci with an average of 8.25 alleles per locus. The population structure was determined with methods based on Bayesian principles using the BAPS 6.0 and STRUCTURE 2.3 programs. Genetic analysis confirmed unlimited migration and random mating between individuals of different microlocations, which suggests time‐coordinated first treatment in the region would be the best solution.     

Potential impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of Fagus sylvatica L. forests in spain

Abstract

Fagus sylvatica forests are considered to be of Community interest according to Directive 92/43/EEC. Climate change predictions for Spain point to a warming scenario, coupled with decreasing rainfall, which may have an impact on their future distribution particularly at the extremes of its distribution area. Species distribution models incorporating bioclimatic, topographic and phytogeographic variables were used as predictors to assess their habitat suitability under current conditions and a climate change projection. Ten single models were generated and an ensemble-forecasting model was subsequently built by computing a consensus of single-model projections. The results revealed that ombrothermic indices are the main factors controlling the distribution of Spanish beech forests. They are highly vulnerable to climate change and could suffer a decline in their habitat suitability if climate trends observed are maintained in the future. The least favoured areas for them will be located close to the limit between the Temperate and Mediterranean climates, where they could suffer a loss of habitat suitability. Conversely, suitable new areas could be found mainly in western areas of the Cantabrian Range and in the Central Pyrenees.     

Simulating forest ecosystem response to climate warming incorporating spatial effects in north-eastern China

Aim Predictions of ecosystem responses to climate warming are often made using gap models, which are among the most effective tools for assessing the effects of climate change on forest composition and structure. Gap models do not generally account for broad‐scale effects such as the spatial configuration of the simulated forest ecosystems, disturbance, and seed dispersal, which extend beyond the simulation plots and are important under changing climates. In this study we incorporate the broad‐scale spatial effects (spatial configurations of the simulated forest ecosystems, seed dispersal and fire disturbance) in simulating forest responses to climate warming. We chose the Changbai Natural Reserve in China as our study area. Our aim is to reveal the spatial effects in simulating forest responses to climate warming and make new predictions by incorporating these effects in the Changbai Natural Reserve. Location Changbai Natural Reserve, north‐eastern China. Method We used a coupled modelling approach that links a gap model with a spatially explicit landscape model. In our approach, the responses (establishment) of individual species to climate warming are simulated using a gap model (linkages ) that has been utilized previously for making predictions in this region; and the spatial effects are simulated using a landscape model (LANDIS) that incorporates spatial configurations of the simulated forest ecosystems, seed dispersal and fire disturbance. We used the recent predictions of the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM2) for the Changbai Mountain area (4.6 °C average annual temperature increase and little precipitation change). For the area encompassed by the simulation, we examined four major ecosystems distributed continuously from low to high elevations along the northern slope: hardwood forest, mixed Korean pine hardwood forest, spruce‐fir forest, and sub‐alpine forest. Results The dominant effects of climate warming were evident on forest ecosystems in the low and high elevation areas, but not in the mid‐elevation areas. This suggests that the forest ecosystems near the southern and northern ranges of their distributions will have the strongest response to climate warming. In the mid‐elevation areas, environmental controls exerted the dominant influence on the dynamics of these forests (e.g. spruce‐fir) and their resilience to climate warming was suggested by the fact that the fluctuations of species trajectories for these forests under the warming scenario paralleled those under the current climate scenario. Main conclusions With the spatial effects incorporated, the disappearance of tree species in this region due to the climate warming would not be expected within the 300‐year period covered by the simulation. Neither Korean pine nor spruce‐fir was completely replaced by broadleaf species during the simulation period. Even for the sub‐alpine forest, mountain birch did not become extinct under the climate warming scenario, although its occurrence was greatly reduced. However, the decreasing trends characterizing Korean pine, spruce, and fir indicate that in simulations beyond 300 years these species could eventually be replaced by broadleaf tree species. A complete forest transition would take much longer than the time periods predicted by the gap models.     

Areas of China predicted to have a suitable climate for Anoplophora chinensis under a climate‐warming scenario

Anoplophora chinensis (Forster) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) is an A1 class quarantine pest, native to China, Japan, and North Korea. The A. chinensis outbreak in China has severely affected the local environment and economic development. This study investigates potential areas in China with suitable climate for A. chinensis using historical climate data (1971–2000) and future climate‐warming estimates generated by CLIMEX1.1. These future estimates are based on simulated climate data (2010–2039) provided by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). The results suggest that a wide area of China will have a climate suitable for A. chinensis, and every province may contain some suitable areas for this pest. The predicted areas are distributed primarily in central and southern China, with an estimated distribution range of 18.2–49.5°N and 81.3–135.0°E. Using a global‐warming scenario and predictions based on historical climate data, the areas in China with a climate generally suitable for A. chinensis are predicted to decline, whereas the areas that are highly suitable for A. chinensis are predicted to expand particularly to the northeast and northwest. The estimated distribution range covered 18.2–49.1°N and 73.6–135.0°E. Anoplophora chinensis hosts grow in much of China; therefore, the pest could possibly establish this entire predicted area. These results support enhanced quarantine and control measures combined with stronger monitoring systems to prevent the spread and export of A. chinensis.     

Herbivory and climatic warming: a Mediterranean outbreaking caterpillar attacks a relict, boreal pine species

Climate change can harm many species by disrupting existing interactions or by favouring new ones. This study analyses the foreseeable consequences of climatic warming in the distribution and dynamics of a Mediterranean pest that causes severe defoliation, the pine processionary caterpillar Thaumetopoea pityocampa, and the effects upon the relict Andalusian Scots pine Pinus sylvestris nevadensis in the Sierra Nevada mountains (southeastern Spain). We correlated a set of regional data of infestation by T. pityocampa upon Scots pine, from a broad ecological gradient, with climatic data for the period 1991–2001, characterized by alternating warm and cold winters. Defoliation intensity shows a significant association with previous warm winters, implying that climatic warming will intensify the interaction between the pest and the Scots pine. The homogeneous structure of the afforested pine woodlands favours the outbreak capacity of the newcomer, promoting this new interaction between a Mediterranean caterpillar pest and a boreal tree at its southern distribution limit.     

The Mediterranean Sea as a ‘cul‐de‐sac’ for endemic fishes facing climate change

The Mediterranean Sea is a hotspot of biodiversity, and climate warming is expected to have a significant influence on its endemic fish species. However, no previous studies have predicted whether fish species will experience geographic range extensions or contractions as a consequence of warming. Here, we projected the potential future climatic niches of 75 Mediterranean Sea endemic fish species based on a global warming scenario implemented with the Mediterranean model OPAMED8 and a multimodel inference, which included uncertainty. By 2070–2099, the average surface temperature of the Mediterranean Sea was projected to warm by 3.1 °C. Projections for 2041–2060 are that 25 species would qualify for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) Red List, and six species would become extinct. By 2070–2099, 45 species were expected to qualify for the IUCN Red List whereas 14 were expected to become extinct. By the middle of the 21st century, the coldest areas of the Mediterranean Sea (Adriatic Sea and Gulf of Lion) would act as a refuge for cold‐water species, but by the end of the century, those areas were projected to become a ‘cul‐de‐sac’ that would drive those species towards extinction. In addition, the range size of endemic species was projected to undergo extensive fragmentation, which is a potentially aggravating factor. Since a majority of endemic fishes are specialists, regarding substratum and diet, we may expect a reduced ability to track projected climatic niches. As a whole, 25% of the Mediterranean Sea continental shelf was predicted to experience a total modification of endemic species assemblages by the end of the 21st century. This expected turnover rate could be mitigated by marine protected areas or accelerated by fishing pressure or competition from exotic fishes. It remains a challenge to predict how these assemblage modifications might affect ecosystem function.     

Dramatic loss of seagrass habitat under projected climate change in the Mediterranean Sea

Although climate warming is affecting most marine ecosystems, the Mediterranean is showing earlier impacts. Foundation seagrasses are already experiencing a well‐documented regression in the Mediterranean which could be aggravated by climate change. Here, we forecast distributions of two seagrasses and contrast predicted loss with discrete regions identified on the basis of extant genetic diversity. Under the worst‐case scenario, Posidonia oceanica might lose 75% of suitable habitat by 2050 and is at risk of functional extinction by 2100, whereas Cymodocea nodosa would lose only 46.5% in that scenario as losses are compensated with gained and stable areas in the Atlantic. Besides, we predict that erosion of present genetic diversity and vicariant processes can happen, as all Mediterranean genetic regions could decrease considerably in extension in future warming scenarios. The functional extinction of Posidonia oceanica would have important ecological impacts and may also lead to the release of the massive carbon stocks these ecosystems stored over millennia.     

Centennial decline in North Sea water clarity causes strong delay in phytoplankton bloom timing

With climate warming, a widespread expectation is that events in spring, such as flowering, bird migrations, and insect bursts, will occur earlier because of increasing temperature. At high latitudes, increased ocean temperature is suggested to advance the spring phytoplankton bloom due to earlier stabilization of the water column. However, climate warming is also expected to cause browning in lakes and rivers due to increases in terrestrial greening, ultimately reducing water clarity in coastal areas where freshwater drain. In shallow areas, decreased retention of sediments on the seabed will add to this effect. Both browning and resuspension of sediments imply a reduction of the euphotic zone and Sverdrup's critical depth leading to a delay in the spring bloom, counteracting the effect of increasing temperature. Here, we provide evidence that such a transparency reduction has already taken place in both the deep and shallow areas of the North Sea during the 20th century. A sensitivity analysis using a water column model suggests that the reduced transparency might have caused up to 3 weeks delay in the spring bloom over the last century. This delay stands in contrast to the earlier bloom onset expected from global warming, thus highlighting the importance of including changing water transparency in analyses of phytoplankton phenology and primary production. This appears to be of particular relevance for coastal waters, where increased concentrations of absorbing and scattering substances (sediments, dissolved organic matter) have been suggested to lead to coastal darkening.     

Plastid and nuclear DNA polymorphism reveals historical processes of isolation and reticulation in the olive tree complex (Olea europaea)

Aim The olive tree is considered one of the best indicators of the Mediterranean climate. The species’ distribution is associated with geographical and bioclimatic factors, as well as being influenced by a long period of cultivation. Despite concerted efforts of different research groups, the origin of the Mediterranean olive tree still remains elusive. In the present study, relationships between taxa and populations covering the entire range of Olea europaea were investigated using both maternal (plastid genome) and biparental (nuclear genome) markers to disclose evolutionary patterns in the olive complex. Phylogenetic and phylogeographical results of the two‐genome analyses were interpreted in a biogeographical context. Location Mediterranean, temperate and subtropical floristic regions of the Old World. Methods Phylogeographical reconstructions of plastid DNA polymorphism were performed using microsatellites, restriction sites and indels on a wide sample of 185 representative trees across the Old World, including 28 herbarium specimens from remote areas. Additionally, the potential utility of one ITS‐1 pseudogene for phylogenetic analyses was explored using Bayesian and maximum parsimony approaches on a subsample of 38 olive trees. Results Forty plastid haplotypes were recognized and split into two lineages and seven sublineages. The analysis of ITS‐1 sequences also allowed the identification of seven well differentiated groups. Distribution of plastid and ribosomal DNA lineages was congruent, but particular cases of phylogenetic incongruence were disclosed (particularly in the Sahara and Madeira). Lastly, two divergent ITS‐1 copies were isolated from the same sample of four individuals of different subspecies. Main conclusions Phylogenetic congruence of both ITS‐1 and plastid lineages suggested an evolutionary scenario of predominant isolation during the Plio‐Pleistocene in Macaronesia, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, eastern Africa and Asia. The Saharan desert appeared to have played an important role of vicariant barrier between southern and northern African populations in early times. Incongruence of some plastid and nuclear results, as well as intermingled ITS‐1 copies of different lineages in single individuals, was interpreted as a result of recurrent reticulation events in the olive complex. We identified an ancient hybrid zone from the Sahara to north‐eastern African mountains, where divergent plastid and nuclear lineages still co‐exist. Results of this paper, and previous studies, suggest that the cultivated olive originated from a pre‐Quaternary Mediterranean ancestor, with no evidence for a recent hybrid origin. In contrast, a continuous process of olive domestication through local hybridization events of cultivated trees with natural populations may have brought about a remarkably high genomic diversity among cultivated trees across the Mediterranean.     

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios

As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981–2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011–2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.     

Increased evapotranspiration demand in a Mediterranean climate might cause a decline in fungal yields under global warming

Wild fungi play a critical role in forest ecosystems, and its recollection is a relevant economic activity. Understanding fungal response to climate is necessary in order to predict future fungal production in Mediterranean forests under climate change scenarios. We used a 15‐year data set to model the relationship between climate and epigeous fungal abundance and productivity, for mycorrhizal and saprotrophic guilds in a Mediterranean pine forest. The obtained models were used to predict fungal productivity for the 2021–2080 period by means of regional climate change models. Simple models based on early spring temperature and summer–autumn rainfall could provide accurate estimates for fungal abundance and productivity. Models including rainfall and climatic water balance showed similar results and explanatory power for the analyzed 15‐year period. However, their predictions for the 2021–2080 period diverged. Rainfall‐based models predicted a maintenance of fungal yield, whereas water balance‐based models predicted a steady decrease of fungal productivity under a global warming scenario. Under Mediterranean conditions fungi responded to weather conditions in two distinct periods: early spring and late summer–autumn, suggesting a bimodal pattern of growth. Saprotrophic and mycorrhizal fungi showed differences in the climatic control. Increased atmospheric evaporative demand due to global warming might lead to a drop in fungal yields during the 21st century.     

Year clustering analysis for modelling olive flowering phenology

It is now widely accepted that weather conditions occurring several months prior to the onset of flowering have a major influence on various aspects of olive reproductive phenology, including flowering intensity. Given the variable characteristics of the Mediterranean climate, we analyse its influence on the registered variations in olive flowering intensity in southern Spain, and relate them to previous climatic parameters using a year-clustering approach, as a first step towards an olive flowering phenology model adapted to different year categories. Phenological data from Cordoba province (Southern Spain) for a 30-year period (1982–2011) were analysed. Meteorological and phenological data were first subjected to both hierarchical and “K-means” clustering analysis, which yielded four year-categories. For this classification purpose, three different models were tested: (1) discriminant analysis; (2) decision-tree analysis; and (3) neural network analysis. Comparison of the results showed that the neural-networks model was the most effective, classifying four different year categories with clearly distinct weather features. Flowering-intensity models were constructed for each year category using the partial least squares regression method. These category-specific models proved to be more effective than general models. They are better suited to the variability of the Mediterranean climate, due to the different response of plants to the same environmental stimuli depending on the previous weather conditions in any given year. The present detailed analysis of the influence of weather patterns of different years on olive phenology will help us to understand the short-term effects of climate change on olive crop in the Mediterranean area that is highly affected by it.     

Cedrus libani (A. Rich) distribution in Lebanon: Past,present and future

Long-term vegetation studies are needed to better predict the impact of future climate change on vegetation structure and distribution. According to the IPCC scenario, the Mediterranean region is expected to undergo significant climatic variability over the course of this century. Cedrus libani (A. Rich), in particular, is currently distributed in limited areas in the Eastern Mediterranean region, which are expected to be affected by such climate change. In order to predict the impact of future global warming, we have used fossil pollen data and model simulations. Palaeobotanical data show that C. libani has been affected by both climate change and human activities. Populations of C. libani survived in refugial zones when climatic conditions were less favourable and its range extended during periods of more suitable climate conditions. Simulations of its future geographical distribution for the year 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model show that only three areas from Mount Lebanon may allow its survival. These results extrapolated for cedar forests for the entire Eastern Mediterranean region show that forests in Syria are also threatened by future global warming. In southern Turkey, cedar forests seem to be less threatened. These results are expected to help in the long-term conservation of cedar forests in the Near East.