Threats and knowledge gaps for ecosystem services provided by kelp forests: a northeast Atlantic perspective

Kelp forests along temperate and polar coastlines represent some of most diverse and productive habitats on the Earth. Here, we synthesize information from >60 years of research on the structure and functioning of kelp forest habitats in European waters, with particular emphasis on the coasts of UK and Ireland, which represents an important biogeographic transition zone that is subjected to multiple threats and stressors. We collated existing data on kelp distribution and abundance and reanalyzed these data to describe the structure of kelp forests along a spatial gradient spanning more than 10° of latitude. We then examined ecological goods and services provided by kelp forests, including elevated secondary production, nutrient cycling, energy capture and flow, coastal defense, direct applications, and biodiversity repositories, before discussing current and future threats posed to kelp forests and identifying key knowledge gaps. Recent evidence unequivocally demonstrates that the structure of kelp forests in the NE Atlantic is changing in response to climate‐ and non‐climate‐related stressors, which will have major implications for the structure and functioning of coastal ecosystems. However, kelp‐dominated habitats along much of the NE Atlantic coastline have been chronically understudied over recent decades in comparison with other regions such as Australasia and North America. The paucity of field‐based research currently impedes our ability to conserve and manage these important ecosystems. Targeted observational and experimental research conducted over large spatial and temporal scales is urgently needed to address these knowledge gaps.     

Increased growth rates of stream salamanders following forest harvesting

Timber harvesting can influence headwater streams by altering stream productivity, with cascading effects on the food web and predators within, including stream salamanders. Although studies have examined shifts in salamander occupancy or abundance following timber harvest, few examine sublethal effects such as changes in growth and demography. To examine the effect of upland harvesting on growth of the stream‐associated Ouachita dusky salamander (Desmognathus brimleyorum), we used capture–mark–recapture over three years at three headwater streams embedded in intensely managed pine forests in west‐central Arkansas. The pine stands surrounding two of the streams were harvested, with retention of a 14‐ and 21‐m‐wide forested stream buffer on each side of the stream, whereas the third stream was an unharvested control. At the two treatment sites, measurements of newly metamorphosed salamanders were on average 4.0 and 5.7 mm larger post‐harvest compared with pre‐harvest. We next assessed the influence of timber harvest on growth of post‐metamorphic salamanders with a hierarchical von Bertalanffy growth model that included an effect of harvest on growth rate. Using measurements from 839 individual D. brimleyorum recaptured between 1 and 6 times (total captures, n = 1229), we found growth rates to be 40% higher post‐harvest. Our study is among the first to examine responses of individual stream salamanders to timber harvesting, and we discuss mechanisms that may be responsible for observed shifts in growth. Our results suggest timber harvest that includes retention of a riparian buffer (i.e., streamside management zone) may have short‐term positive effects on juvenile stream salamander growth, potentially offsetting negative sublethal effects associated with harvest.     

Barriers and bridges for sustaining functional habitat networks: A macroecological system analysis of wet grassland landscapes

This study aims at supporting the maintenance of representative functional habitat networks as green infrastructure for biodiversity conservation through transdisciplinary macroecological analyses of wet grassland landscapes and their stewardship systems. We chose ten north European wet grassland case study landscapes from Iceland and the Netherlands in the west to Lithuania and Belarus in the east. We combine expert experiences for 20–30 years, comparative studies made 2011–2017, and longitudinal analyses spanning >70 years. Wader, or shorebird, (Charadrii) assemblages were chosen as a focal species group. We used evidence‐based knowledge and practical experience generated in three steps. (1) Experts from 8 wet grassland landscapes in northern Europe''s west and east mapped factors linked to patterns and processes, and management and governance, in social‐ecological systems that affect states and trends of wet grasslands as green infrastructures for wader birds. (2) To understand wader conservation problems and their dynamic in wet grassland landscapes, and to identify key issues for successful conservation, we applied group modeling using causal loop diagram mapping. (3) Validation was made using the historic development in two additional wet grassland landscapes. Wader conservation was dependent on ten dynamically interacting ecological and social system factors as leverage points for management. Re‐wetting and grazing were common drivers for the ecological and social system, and long‐term economic support for securing farmers’ interest in wader bird conservation. Financial public incentives at higher levels of governance of wetland management are needed to stimulate private income loops. Systems analysis based on contrasting landscape case studies in space and over time can support (1) understanding of complex interactions in social‐ecological systems, (2) collaborative learning in individual wet grassland landscapes, and (3) formulation of priorities for conservation, management, and restoration.     

Mapping canopy nitrogen‐scapes to assess foraging habitat for a vulnerable arboreal folivore in mixed‐species Eucalyptus forests

Herbivore foraging decisions are closely related to plant nutritional quality. For arboreal folivores with specialized diets, such as the vulnerable greater glider (Petauroides volans), the abundance of suitable forage trees can influence habitat suitability and species occurrence. The ability to model and map foliar nitrogen would therefore enhance our understanding of folivore habitat use at finer scales. We tested whether high‐resolution multispectral imagery, collected by a lightweight and low‐cost commercial unoccupied aerial vehicle (UAV), could be used to predict total and digestible foliar nitrogen (N and digN) at the tree canopy level and forest stand‐scale from leaf‐scale chemistry measurements across a gradient of mixed‐species Eucalyptus forests in southeastern Australia. We surveyed temperate Eucalyptus forests across an elevational and topographic gradient from sea level to high elevation (50–1200 m a.s.l.) for forest structure, leaf chemistry, and greater glider occurrence. Using measures of multispectral leaf reflectance and spectral indices, we estimated N and digN and mapped N and favorable feeding habitat using machine learning algorithms. Our surveys covered 17 Eucalyptus species ranging in foliar N from 0.63% to 1.92% dry matter (DM) and digN from 0.45% to 1.73% DM. Both multispectral leaf reflectance and spectral indices were strong predictors for N and digN in model cross‐validation. At the tree level, 79% of variability between observed and predicted measures of nitrogen was explained. A spatial supervised classification model correctly identified 80% of canopy pixels associated with high N concentrations (≥1% DM). We developed a successful method for estimating foliar nitrogen of a range of temperate Eucalyptus species using UAV multispectral imagery at the tree canopy level and stand scale. The ability to spatially quantify feeding habitat using UAV imagery allows remote assessments of greater glider habitat at a scale relevant to support ground surveys, management, and conservation for the vulnerable greater glider across southeastern Australia.     

Favoring recruitment as a conservation strategy to improve the resilience of long‐lived reptile populations: Insights from a population viability analysis

In long‐lived species, although adult survival typically has the highest elasticity, temporal variations in less canalized demographic parameters are the main drivers of population dynamics. Targeting recruitment rates may thus be the most effective strategy to manage these species. We analyzed 1,136 capture–recapture histories collected over 9 years in an isolated population of the critically endangered Lesser Antillean iguana, using a robust design Pradel model to estimate adult survival and recruitment rates. From an adult population size estimated at 928 in 2013, we found a yearly decline of 4% over the 8‐year period. As expected under the canalization hypothesis for a long‐lived species, adult survival was high and constant, with little possibility for improvement, whereas the recruitment rate varied over time and likely drove the observed population decline. We then used a prospective perturbation analysis to explore whether managing the species’ immature cohorts would at least slow the population decline. The prospective perturbation analysis suggested that a significant and sustained conservation effort would be needed to achieve a recruitment rate high enough to slow the population decline. We posit that the high recruitment rate achieved in 2014—likely due to the maintenance in 2012 of the main nesting sites used by this population—would be sufficient to slow this population''s decline if it was sustained each year. Based on the results of diverse pilot studies we conducted, we identified the most likely threats targeting the eggs and immature cohorts, stressing the need to improve reproductive success and survival of immature iguanas. The threats we identified are also involved in the decline of several reptile species, and species from other taxa such as ground‐nesting birds. These findings on a little‐studied taxon provide further evidence that focusing on the immature life stages of long‐lived species can be key to their conservation.     

Status,trends and drivers of kelp forests in Europe: an expert assessment

A comprehensive expert consultation was conducted in order to assess the status, trends and the most important drivers of change in the abundance and geographical distribution of kelp forests in European waters. This consultation included an on-line questionnaire, results from a workshop and data provided by a selected group of experts working on kelp forest mapping and eco-evolutionary research. Differences in status and trends according to geographical areas, species identity and small-scale variations within the same habitat where shown by assembling and mapping kelp distribution and trend data. Significant data gaps for some geographical regions, like the Mediterranean and the southern Iberian Peninsula, were also identified. The data used for this study confirmed a general trend with decreasing abundance of some native kelp species at their southern distributional range limits and increasing abundance in other parts of their distribution (Saccharina latissima and Saccorhiza polyschides). The expansion of the introduced species Undaria pinnatifida was also registered. Drivers of observed changes in kelp forests distribution and abundance were assessed using experts’ opinions. Multiple possible drivers were identified, including global warming, sea urchin grazing, harvesting, pollution and fishing pressure, and their impact varied between geographical areas. Overall, the results highlight major threats for these ecosystems but also opportunities for conservation. Major requirements to ensure adequate protection of coastal kelp ecosystems along European coastlines are discussed, based on the local to regional gaps detected in the study.     

Fijian sea krait behavior relates to fine‐scale environmental heterogeneity in old‐growth coastal forest: The importance of integrated land–sea management for protecting amphibious animals

The importance of terrestrial coastal ecosystems for maintaining healthy coral reef ecosystems remains understudied. Sea kraits are amphibious snakes that require healthy coral reefs for foraging, but little is known about their requirements of terrestrial habitats, where they slough their skin, digest prey, and breed. Using concurrent microclimate measurements and behavior surveys, we show that a small, topographically flat atoll in Fiji with coastal forest provides many microhabitats that relate to the behaviors of Yellow Lipped Sea Kraits, Laticauda colubrina. Microclimates were significantly related to canopy cover, leaf litter depth, and distance from the high‐water mark (HWM). Sea kraits were almost exclusively observed in coastal forest within 30 m of the HWM. Sloughing of skins only occurred within crevices of mature or dying trees. Resting L. colubrina were significantly more likely to occur at locations with higher mean diurnal temperatures, lower leaf litter depths, and shorter distances from the HWM. On Leleuvia, behavior of L. colubrina therefore relates to environmental heterogeneity created by old‐growth coastal forests, particularly canopy cover and crevices in mature and dead tree trunks. The importance of healthy coastal habitats, both terrestrial and marine, for L. colubrina suggests it could be a good flagship species for advocating integrated land‐sea management. Furthermore, our study highlights the importance of coastal forests and topographically flat atolls for biodiversity conservation. Effective conservation management of amphibious species that utilize land‐ and seascapes is therefore likely to require a holistic approach that incorporates connectivity among ecosystems and environmental heterogeneity at all relevant scales.     

Effects of temperature and nutrients on microscopic stages of the bull kelp (Nereocystis luetkeana,Phaeophyceae)

Warming ocean temperatures have been linked to kelp forest declines worldwide, and elevated temperatures can act synergistically with other local stressors to exacerbate kelp loss. The bull kelp Nereocystis luetkeana is the primary canopy-forming kelp species in the Salish Sea, where it is declining in areas with elevated summer water temperatures and low nutrient concentrations. To determine the interactive effects of these two stressors on microscopic stages of N. luetkeana, we cultured gametophytes and microscopic sporophytes from seven different Salish Sea populations across seven different temperatures (10–22°C) and two nitrogen concentrations. The thermal tolerance of microscopic gametophytes and sporophytes was similar across populations, and high temperatures were more stressful than low nitrogen levels. Additional nitrogen did not improve gametophyte or sporophyte survival at high temperatures. Gametophyte densities were highest between 10 and 16°C and declined sharply at 18°C, and temperatures of 20 and 22°C were lethal. The window for successful sporophyte production was narrower, peaking at 10–14°C. Across all populations, the warmest temperature at which sporophytes were produced was 16 or 18°C, but sporophyte densities were 78% lower at 16°C and 95% lower at 18°C compared to cooler temperatures. In the field, bottom temperatures revealed that the thermal limits of gametophyte growth (18°C) and sporophyte production (16–18°C) were reached during the summer at multiple sites. Prolonged exposure of bull kelp gametophytes to temperatures of 16°C and above could limit reproduction, and therefore recruitment, of adult kelp sporophytes.     

Uncovering the different scales in deer–forest interactions

Deer are regarded to be a keystone species as they play a crucial role in the way an ecosystem functions. Most deer–forest interaction studies apply a single scale — process of analyzing ecological interactions by only taking into account one dependent variable — to understand how deer browsing behavior shapes different forest components, but they overlook the fact that forests respond to multiple scales simultaneously. This research evaluates the effect of browsing by wild deer on temperate and boreal forests at different scales by synthesizing seminal papers, specifically (a) what are the effects of deer population density in forest regeneration? (b) What are the effects of deer when forests present diverging spatial characteristics? (c) What are the effects on vegetation at different temporal scales? and (d) What are the hierarchical effects of deer when considering other trophic levels? Additionally, a framework based on modern technology is proposed to answer the multiscale research questions previously identified. When analyzing deer–forest interactions at different scales, the strongest relationships occur at the extremes. For example: when deer assemblage occurs in low or high density and is composed of a mix of small and large species. As forests on poor soils remain restrained in size, isolated and chronically browsed. When forests harbor incomplete trophic levels, the effects spill over to lower trophic levels. To better understand the complexities in deer–forest interactions, researchers should combine technology‐based instruments like fixed sensors and drones with field‐tested methods such observational studies and experiments to tackle multiscale research questions.     

Winners and losers of land use change: A systematic review of interactions between the world’s crane species (Gruidae) and the agricultural sector

While agricultural intensification and expansion are major factors driving loss and degradation of natural habitat and species decline, some wildlife species also benefit from agriculturally managed habitats. This may lead to high population densities with impacts on both human livelihoods and wildlife conservation. Cranes are a group of 15 species worldwide, affected both negatively and positively by agricultural practices. While eleven species face critical population declines, numbers of common cranes (Grus grus) and sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) have increased drastically in the last 40 years. Their increase is associated with higher incidences of crane foraging on agricultural crops, causing financial losses to farmers. Our aim was to synthesize scientific knowledge on the bilateral effects of land use change and crane populations. We conducted a systematic literature review of peer‐reviewed publications on agriculture‐crane interactions (n = 135) and on the importance of agricultural crops in the diet of cranes (n = 81). Agricultural crops constitute a considerable part of the diet of all crane species (average of 37%, most frequently maize (Zea mays L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)). Crop damage was identified in only 10% of all agriculture‐crane interactions, although one‐third of interactions included cranes foraging on cropland. Using a conceptual framework analysis, we identified two major pathways in agriculture‐crane interactions: (1) habitat loss with negative effects on crane species dependent on specific habitats, and (2) expanding agricultural habitats with superabundant food availability beneficial for opportunistic crane species. The degree to which crane species can adapt to agricultural land use changes may be an important factor explaining their population response. We conclude that multi‐objective management needs to combine land sparing and land sharing strategies at landscape scale. To support viable crane populations while guaranteeing sustainable agricultural production, it is necessary to include the perspectives of diverse stakeholders and streamline conservation initiatives and agricultural policy accordingly.     

The influence of competing root symbionts on below‐ground plant resource allocation

1. Plants typically interact with multiple above‐ and below‐ground organisms simultaneously, with their symbiotic relationships spanning a continuum ranging from mutualism, such as with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), to parasitism, including symbioses with plant‐parasitic nematodes (PPN).
2. Although research is revealing the patterns of plant resource allocation to mutualistic AMF partners under different host and environmental constraints, the root ecosystem, with multiple competing symbionts, is often ignored. Such competition is likely to heavily influence resource allocation to symbionts.
3. Here, we outline and discuss the competition between AMF and PPN for the finite supply of host plant resources, highlighting the need for a more holistic understanding of the influence of below‐ground interactions on plant resource allocation. Based on recent developments in our understanding of other symbiotic systems such as legume–rhizobia and AMF‐aphid‐plant, we propose hypotheses for the distribution of plant resources between contrasting below‐ground symbionts and how such competition may affect the host.
4. We identify relevant knowledge gaps at the physiological and molecular scales which, if resolved, will improve our understanding of the true ecological significance and potential future exploitation of AMF‐PPN‐plant interactions in order to optimize plant growth. To resolve these outstanding knowledge gaps, we propose the application of well‐established methods in isotope tracing and nutrient budgeting to monitor the movement of nutrients between symbionts. By combining these approaches with novel time of arrival experiments and experimental systems involving multiple plant hosts interlinked by common mycelial networks, it may be possible to reveal the impact of multiple, simultaneous colonizations by competing symbionts on carbon and nutrient flows across ecologically important scales.

     

Integrating high‐speed videos in capture‐mark‐recapture studies of insects

Capture–mark–recapture (CMR) studies have been used extensively in ecology and evolution. While it is feasible to apply CMR in some animals, it is considerably more challenging in small fast‐moving species such as insects. In these groups, low recapture rates can bias estimates of demographic parameters, thereby handicapping effective analysis and management of wild populations. Here, we use high‐speed videos (HSV) to capture two large dragonfly species, Anax junius and Rhionaeschna multicolor, that rarely land and, thus, are particularly challenging for CMR studies. We test whether HSV, compared to conventional “eye” observations, increases the “resighting” rates and, consequently, improves estimates of both survival rates and the effects of demographic covariates on survival. We show that the use of HSV increases the number of resights by 64% in A. junius and 48% in R. multicolor. HSV improved our estimates of resighting and survival probability which were either under‐ or overestimated with the conventional observations. Including HSV improved credible intervals for resighting rate and survival probability by 190% and 130% in A. junius and R. multicolor, respectively. Hence, it has the potential to open the door to a wide range of research possibilities on species that are traditionally difficult to monitor with distance sampling, including within insects and birds.     

Mass spectrometry‐based protein–protein interaction networks for the study of human diseases

A better understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying disease is key for expediting the development of novel therapeutic interventions. Disease mechanisms are often mediated by interactions between proteins. Insights into the physical rewiring of protein–protein interactions in response to mutations, pathological conditions, or pathogen infection can advance our understanding of disease etiology, progression, and pathogenesis and can lead to the identification of potential druggable targets. Advances in quantitative mass spectrometry (MS)‐based approaches have allowed unbiased mapping of these disease‐mediated changes in protein–protein interactions on a global scale. Here, we review MS techniques that have been instrumental for the identification of protein–protein interactions at a system‐level, and we discuss the challenges associated with these methodologies as well as novel MS advancements that aim to address these challenges. An overview of examples from diverse disease contexts illustrates the potential of MS‐based protein–protein interaction mapping approaches for revealing disease mechanisms, pinpointing new therapeutic targets, and eventually moving toward personalized applications.     

Dense cold‐water coral garden of Paragorgia johnsoni suggests the importance of the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge for deep‐sea biodiversity

Mid‐ocean ridges generate a myriad of physical oceanographic processes that favor the supply of food and nutrients to suspension‐ and filter‐feeding organisms, such as cold‐water corals and deep‐sea sponges. However, the pioneering work conducted along the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge failed to report the presence of large and dense living coral reefs, coral gardens, or sponge aggregations. Here, we describe the densest, near‐natural, and novel octocoral garden composed of large red and white colonies of Paragorgia johnsoni Gray, 1862 discovered at 545–595 m depth on the slopes of the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge, in the Azores region. This newly discovered octocoral garden is a good candidate for protection since it fits many of the FAO criteria that define what constitutes a Vulnerable Marine Ecosystem. The observations described here corroborate the existence of a close relationship between the octocoral structure and the ambient currents on ridge‐like topographies, providing new insights into the functioning of mid‐ocean ridges'' ecosystems. The ubiquitous presence of biogenic and geological topographies associated with mid‐ocean ridges, which could act as climate refugia, suggests their global importance for deep‐sea biodiversity. A better understanding of the processes involved is, therefore, required. Our observations may inspire future deep‐sea research initiatives to narrow existing knowledge gaps of biophysical connections with benthic fauna at small spatial scales along mid‐ocean ridges.     

Insights into short‐ and long‐term crop‐foraging strategies in a chacma baboon (Papio ursinus) from GPS and accelerometer data

Crop‐foraging by animals is a leading cause of human–wildlife “conflict” globally, affecting farmers and resulting in the death of many animals in retaliation, including primates. Despite significant research into crop‐foraging by primates, relatively little is understood about the behavior and movements of primates in and around crop fields, largely due to the limitations of traditional observational methods. Crop‐foraging by primates in large‐scale agriculture has also received little attention. We used GPS and accelerometer bio‐loggers, along with environmental data, to gain an understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of activity for a female in a crop‐foraging baboon group in and around commercial farms in South Africa over one year. Crop fields were avoided for most of the year, suggesting that fields are perceived as a high‐risk habitat. When field visits did occur, this was generally when plant primary productivity was low, suggesting that crops were a “fallback food”. All recorded field visits were at or before 15:00. Activity was significantly higher in crop fields than in the landscape in general, evidence that crop‐foraging is an energetically costly strategy and that fields are perceived as a risky habitat. In contrast, activity was significantly lower within 100 m of the field edge than in the rest of the landscape, suggesting that baboons wait near the field edge to assess risks before crop‐foraging. Together, this understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of crop‐foraging can help to inform crop protection strategies and reduce conflict between humans and baboons in South Africa.     

Movement can mediate temporal mismatches between resource availability and biological events in host–pathogen interactions

Global change is shifting the timing of biological events, leading to temporal mismatches between biological events and resource availability. These temporal mismatches can threaten species’ populations. Importantly, temporal mismatches not only exert strong pressures on the population dynamics of the focal species, but can also lead to substantial changes in pairwise species interactions such as host–pathogen systems. We adapted an established individual‐based model of host–pathogen dynamics. The model describes a viral agent in a social host, while accounting for the host''s explicit movement decisions. We aimed to investigate how temporal mismatches between seasonal resource availability and host life‐history events affect host–pathogen coexistence, that is, disease persistence. Seasonal resource fluctuations only increased coexistence probability when in synchrony with the hosts’ biological events. However, a temporal mismatch reduced host–pathogen coexistence, but only marginally. In tandem with an increasing temporal mismatch, our model showed a shift in the spatial distribution of infected hosts. It shifted from an even distribution under synchronous conditions toward the formation of disease hotspots, when host life history and resource availability mismatched completely. The spatial restriction of infected hosts to small hotspots in the landscape initially suggested a lower coexistence probability due to the critical loss of susceptible host individuals within those hotspots. However, the surrounding landscape facilitated demographic rescue through habitat‐dependent movement. Our work demonstrates that the negative effects of temporal mismatches between host resource availability and host life history on host–pathogen coexistence can be reduced through the formation of temporary disease hotspots and host movement decisions, with implications for disease management under disturbances and global change.     

Survival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska’s Beaufort Sea, 2001–2016

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid transformation toward a seasonally ice‐free ecosystem. As ice‐adapted apex predators, polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are challenged to cope with ongoing habitat degradation and changes in their prey base driven by food‐web response to climate warming. Knowledge of polar bear response to environmental change is necessary to understand ecosystem dynamics and inform conservation decisions. In the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) of Alaska and western Canada, sea ice extent has declined since satellite observations began in 1979 and available evidence suggests that the carrying capacity of the SBS for polar bears has trended lower for nearly two decades. In this study, we investigated the population dynamics of polar bears in Alaska''s SBS from 2001 to 2016 using a multistate Cormack–Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model. States were defined as geographic regions, and we used location data from mark–recapture observations and satellite‐telemetered bears to model transitions between states and thereby explain heterogeneity in recapture probabilities. Our results corroborate prior findings that the SBS subpopulation experienced low survival from 2003 to 2006. Survival improved modestly from 2006 to 2008 and afterward rebounded to comparatively high levels for the remainder of the study, except in 2012. Abundance moved in concert with survival throughout the study period, declining substantially from 2003 and 2006 and afterward fluctuating with lower variation around an average of 565 bears (95% Bayesian credible interval [340, 920]) through 2015. Even though abundance was comparatively stable and without sustained trend from 2006 to 2015, polar bears in the Alaska SBS were less abundant over that period than at any time since passage of the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act. The potential for recovery is likely limited by the degree of habitat degradation the subpopulation has experienced, and future reductions in carrying capacity are expected given current projections for continued climate warming.     

Integrating growth and survival models for flexible estimation of size‐dependent survival in a cryptic,endangered snake

Estimates of demographic rates for animal populations and individuals have many applications for ecological and conservation research. In many animals, survival is size‐dependent, but estimating the form of the size–survival relationship presents challenges. For elusive species with low recapture rates, individuals’ size will be unknown at many points in time. Integrating growth and capture–mark–recapture models in a Bayesian framework empowers researchers to impute missing size data, with uncertainty, and include size as a covariate of survival, capture probability, and presence on‐site. If there is no theoretical expectation for the shape of the size–survival relationship, spline functions can allow for fitting flexible, data‐driven estimates. We use long‐term capture–mark–recapture data from the endangered San Francisco gartersnake (Thamnophis sirtalis tetrataenia) to fit an integrated growth–survival model. Growth models showed that females reach longer asymptotic lengths than males and that the magnitude of sexual size dimorphism differed among populations. The capture probability and availability of San Francisco gartersnakes for capture increased with snout–vent length. The survival rate of female snakes exhibits a nonlinear relationship with snout–vent length (SVL), with survival flat between 300 mm and 550 mm SVL before decreasing for females between 550 mm and 700 mm SVL. For male snakes, survival decreased for adult males >550 mm SVL. The survival rates of the smallest and largest San Francisco gartersnakes were highly uncertain because recapture rates were very low for these sizes. By integrating growth and survival models and using penalized splines, we found support for size‐dependent survival in San Francisco gartersnakes. Our results have applications for devising management activities for this endangered subspecies, and our methods could be applied broadly to the study of size‐dependent demography among animals.     

Biological traits approaches in benthic marine ecology: Dead ends and new paths

Biological traits analysis (BTA) links community structure to both ecological functions and response to environmental drivers through species’ attributes. In consequence, it has become a popular approach in marine benthic studies. However, BTA will reach a dead end if the scientific community does not acknowledge its current shortcomings and limitations: (a) uncertainties related to data origins and a lack of standardized reporting of trait information; (b) knowledge gaps on the role of multiple interacting traits on driving the organisms’ responses to environmental variability; (c) knowledge gaps regarding the mechanistic links between traits and functions; (d) a weak focus on the spatial and temporal variability that is inherent to the trait expression of species; and, last but not least, (e) the large reliance on expert knowledge due to an enormous knowledge gap on the basic ecology of many benthic species. BTA will only reach its full potential if the scientific community is able to standardize and unify the reporting and storage of traits data and reconsider the importance of baseline observational and experimental studies to fill knowledge gaps on the mechanistic links between biological traits, functions, and environmental variability. This challenge could be assisted by embracing new technological advances in marine monitoring, such as underwater camera technology and artificial intelligence, and making use of advanced statistical approaches that consider the interactive nature and spatio‐temporal variability of biological systems. The scientific community has to abandon some dead ends and explore new paths that will improve our understanding of individual species, traits, and the functioning of benthic ecosystems.     

Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability of three marine predators suggests a rapid decline in inter‐specific overlap under future climate change

Understanding how environmental and climate change can alter habitat overlap of marine predators has great value for the management and conservation of marine ecosystems. Here, we estimated spatiotemporal changes in habitat suitability and inter‐specific overlap among three marine predators: Baltic gray seals (Halichoerus grypus), harbor seals (Phoca vitulina), and harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) under contemporary and future conditions. Location data (>200 tagged individuals) were collected in the southwestern region of the Baltic Sea; one of the fastest‐warming semi‐enclosed seas in the world. We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to estimate changes in total area size and overlap of species‐specific habitat suitability between 1997–2020 and 2091–2100. Predictor variables included environmental and climate‐sensitive oceanographic conditions in the area. Sea‐level rise, sea surface temperature, and salinity data were taken from representative concentration pathways [RCPs] scenarios 6.0 and 8.5 to forecast potential climate change effects. Model output suggested that habitat suitability of Baltic gray seals will decline over space and time, driven by changes in sea surface salinity and a loss of currently available haulout sites following sea‐level rise in the future. A similar, although weaker, effect was observed for harbor seals, while suitability of habitat for harbor porpoises was predicted to increase slightly over space and time. Inter‐specific overlap in highly suitable habitats was also predicted to increase slightly under RCP scenario 6.0 when compared to contemporary conditions, but to disappear under RCP scenario 8.5. Our study suggests that marine predators in the southwestern Baltic Sea may respond differently to future climatic conditions, leading to divergent shifts in habitat suitability that are likely to decrease inter‐specific overlap over time and space. We conclude that climate change can lead to a marked redistribution of area use by marine predators in the region, which may influence local food‐web dynamics and ecosystem functioning.