Phenotypic plasticity and population viability: the importance of environmental predictability

Phenotypic plasticity plays a key role in modulating how environmental variation influences population dynamics, but we have only rudimentary understanding of how plasticity interacts with the magnitude and predictability of environmental variation to affect population dynamics and persistence. We developed a stochastic individual-based model, in which phenotypes could respond to a temporally fluctuating environmental cue and fitness depended on the match between the phenotype and a randomly fluctuating trait optimum, to assess the absolute fitness and population dynamic consequences of plasticity under different levels of environmental stochasticity and cue reliability. When cue and optimum were tightly correlated, plasticity buffered absolute fitness from environmental variability, and population size remained high and relatively invariant. In contrast, when this correlation weakened and environmental variability was high, strong plasticity reduced population size, and populations with excessively strong plasticity had substantially greater extinction probability. Given that environments might become more variable and unpredictable in the future owing to anthropogenic influences, reaction norms that evolved under historic selective regimes could imperil populations in novel or changing environmental contexts. We suggest that demographic models (e.g. population viability analyses) would benefit from a more explicit consideration of how phenotypic plasticity influences population responses to environmental change.     

Quantifying full phenological event distributions reveals simultaneous advances,temporal stability and delays in spring and autumn migration timing in long‐distance migratory birds

Phenological changes in key seasonally expressed life‐history traits occurring across periods of climatic and environmental change can cause temporal mismatches between interacting species, and thereby impact population and community dynamics. However, studies quantifying long‐term phenological changes have commonly only measured variation occurring in spring, measured as the first or mean dates on which focal traits or events were observed. Few studies have considered seasonally paired events spanning spring and autumn or tested the key assumption that single convenient metrics accurately capture entire event distributions. We used 60 years (1955–2014) of daily bird migration census data from Fair Isle, Scotland, to comprehensively quantify the degree to which the full distributions of spring and autumn migration timing of 13 species of long‐distance migratory bird changed across a period of substantial climatic and environmental change. In most species, mean spring and autumn migration dates changed little. However, the early migration phase (≤10th percentile date) commonly got earlier, while the late migration phase (≥90th percentile date) commonly got later. Consequently, species' total migration durations typically lengthened across years. Spring and autumn migration phenologies were not consistently correlated within or between years within species and hence were not tightly coupled. Furthermore, different metrics quantifying different aspects of migration phenology within seasons were not strongly cross‐correlated, meaning that no single metric adequately described the full pattern of phenological change. These analyses therefore reveal complex patterns of simultaneous advancement, temporal stability and delay in spring and autumn migration phenologies, altering species' life‐history structures. Additionally, they demonstrate that this complexity is only revealed if multiple metrics encompassing entire seasonal event distributions, rather than single metrics, are used to quantify phenological change. Existing evidence of long‐term phenological changes detected using only one or two metrics should consequently be interpreted cautiously because divergent changes occurring simultaneously could potentially have remained undetected.     

The importance of growth and mortality costs in the evolution of the optimal life history

A central assumption of life history theory is that the evolution of the component traits is determined in part by trade-offs between these traits. Whereas the existence of such trade-offs has been well demonstrated, the relative importance of these remains unclear. In this paper we use optimality theory to test the hypothesis that the trade-off between present and future fecundity induced by the costs of continued growth is a sufficient explanation for the optimal age at first reproduction, alpha, and the optimal allocation to reproduction, G, in 38 populations of perch and Arctic char. This hypothesis is rejected for both traits and we conclude that this trade-off, by itself, is an insufficient explanation for the observed values of alpha and G. Similarly, a fitness function that assumes a mortality cost to reproduction but no growth cost cannot account for the observed values of alpha. In contrast, under the assumption that fitness is maximized, the observed life histories can be accounted for by the joint action of trade-offs between growth and reproductive allocation and between mortality and reproductive allocation (Individual Juvenile Mortality model). Although the ability of the growth/mortality model to fit the data does not prove that this is the mechanism driving the evolution of the optimal age at first reproduction and allocation to reproduction, the fit does demonstrate that the hypothesis is consistent with the data and hence cannot at this time be rejected. We also examine two simpler versions of this model, one in which adult mortality is a constant proportion of juvenile mortality [Proportional Juvenile Mortality (PJM) model] and one in which the proportionality is constant within but not necessarily between species [Specific Juvenile Mortality (SSJM) model]. We find that the PJM model is unacceptable but that the SSJM model produces fits suggesting that, within the two species studied, juvenile mortality is proportional to adult mortality but the value differs between the two species.     

Life‐history attributes of Arctic‐breeding birds drive uneven responses to environmental variability across different phases of the reproductive cycle

Animals exhibit varied life‐history traits that reflect adaptive responses to their environments. For Arctic‐breeding birds, traits related to diet, egg nutrient allocation, clutch size, and chick growth are predicted to be under increasing selection pressure due to rapid climate change and increasing environmental variability across high‐latitude regions. We compared four migratory birds (black brant [Branta bernicla nigricans], lesser snow geese [Chen caerulescens caerulescens], semipalmated sandpipers [Calidris pusilla], and Lapland longspurs [Calcarius lapponicus]) with varied life histories at an Arctic site in Alaska, USA, to understand how life‐history traits help moderate environmental variability across different phases of the reproductive cycle. We monitored aspects of reproductive performance related to the timing of breeding, reproductive investment, and chick growth from 2011 to 2018. In response to early snowmelt and warm temperatures, semipalmated sandpipers advanced their site arrival and bred in higher numbers, while brant and snow geese increased clutch sizes; all four species advanced their nest initiation dates. During chick rearing, longspur nestlings were relatively resilient to environmental variation, whereas warmer temperatures increased the growth rates of sandpiper chicks but reduced growth rates of snow goose goslings. These responses generally aligned with traits along the capital‐income spectrum of nutrient acquisition and altricial–precocial modes of chick growth. Under a warming climate, the ability to mobilize endogenous reserves likely provides geese with relative flexibility to adjust the timing of breeding and the size of clutches. Higher temperatures, however, may negatively affect the quality of herbaceous foods and slow gosling growth. Species may possess traits that are beneficial during one phase of the reproductive cycle and others that may be detrimental at another phase, uneven responses that may be amplified with future climate warming. These results underscore the need to consider multiple phases of the reproductive cycle when assessing the effects of environmental variability on Arctic‐breeding birds.     

Alternative responses to rare selection events are differentially vulnerable to changes in the frequency,scope, and intensity of environmental extremes

Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent, severe, and/or widespread as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. While the economic and ecological implications of these changes have received considerable attention, the role of evolutionary processes in determining organismal responses to these critical challenges is currently unknown. Here we develop a novel theoretical framework that explores how alternative pathways for adaptation to rare selection events can influence population‐level vulnerabilities to future changes in the frequency, scope, and intensity of environmental extremes. We begin by showing that different life histories and trait expression profiles can shift the balance between additive and multiplicative properties of fitness accumulation, favoring different evolutionary responses to identical environmental phenomena. We then demonstrate that these different adaptive outcomes lead to predictable differences in population‐level vulnerabilities to rapid increases in the frequency, intensity, or scope of extreme weather events. Specifically, we show that when the primary mode of fitness accumulation is additive, evolution favors ignoring environmental extremes and lineages become highly vulnerable to extinction if the frequency or scope of extreme weather events suddenly increases. Conversely, when fitness accumulates primarily multiplicatively, evolution favors bet‐hedging phenotypes that cope well with historical extremes and are instead vulnerable to sudden increases in extreme event intensity. Our findings address a critical gap in our understanding of the potential consequences of rare selection events and provide a relatively simple rubric for assessing the vulnerabilities of any population of interest to changes in a wide variety of extreme environmental phenomena.     

Environmental and lunar cues are predictive of the timing of river entry and spawning-site arrival in lake sturgeon Acipenser fulvescens

The associations were quantified between daily and interannual variation in the timing of a closed population of lake sturgeon Acipenser fulvescens migration and arrival at spawning sites with stream environmental and lunar covariates. Spawning data were gathered from 1262 fish in Black Lake, Michigan 2001 to 2008 and by video monitoring 2000 to 2002. Sex-specific variation in responses to external cues was also tested. Results showed that a greater number of individuals initiated migration from lake to riverine habitats at dawn and dusk relative to other times of the day. Current and lagged effects of water temperature and river discharge, and periods in the lunar cycle were important variables in models quantifying movements into the river and timing of adult arrival at spawning sites. Different suites of covariates were predictive of A. fulverscens responses during different periods of the spawning season. The timing of initiation of migration and spawning, and the importance of covariates to the timing of these events, did not differ between sexes. Stream flow and temperature covaried with other variables including day length and the lunar cycle. Anthropogenic disruption of relationships among variables may mean that environmental cues may no longer reliably convey information for Acipenseriformes and other migratory fishes.     

Phenotypic plasticity and optimal timing of metamorphosis under uncertain time constraints

Life-history theory suggests that optimal timing of metamorphosis should depend on growth conditions and time constraints under which individuals develop. Current models cannot make reliable predictions for species in ephemeral habitats where individuals often face an increasing mortality risk over time because these models assume time-invariant mortality rates (i.e., daily mortality rates remain constant) and fixed seasons. We examined the plasticity of growth, development, and body mass at metamorphosis in tadpoles of the tree-hole breeding frog Phrynobatrachus guineensis in relation to an unpredictable time constraint in the field and in controlled experiments along a fixed density and food gradient. Mean mass and age at metamorphosis of sibships were positively correlated with per capita food level. Based on our results, we developed a simple model of the optimal timing of metamorphosis under time-dependent mortality rates showing that development rates are not only adjusted to growth conditions but also to time-variant mortality rates. The increasing mortality rate represents a time constraint that favors a reduced larval period, but because it is based on probabilities of survival it allows a trade-off between development time and mass. We extend this model to different types of time constraints and show that it can predict the range of documented reaction norms. Differences between species in␣the correlation of age and mass at metamorphosis may have evolved due to differences in their time-variant mortality rates.     

Independent lineages in a common environment: the roles of determinism and contingency in shaping the migration timing of even‐ versus odd‐year pink salmon over broad spatial and temporal scales

Studies of parallel evolution are seldom able to disentangle the influence of cryptic environmental variation from that of evolutionary history; whereas the unique life history of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) presents an opportunity to do so. All pink salmon mature at age two and die after breeding. Hence, pink salmon bred in even years are completely reproductively isolated from those bred in odd years, even if the two lineages bred in same location. We used time series (mean = 7 years, maximum = 74 years) of paired even‐ and odd‐year populations from 36 rivers spanning over 2000 km to explore parallelism in migration timing, a trait with a strong genetic basis. Migration timing was highly parallel, being determined almost entirely by local environmental differences among rivers. Interestingly, interannual changes in migration timing different somewhat between lineages. Overall, our findings indicate very strong determinism, with only a minor contribution of contingency.     

Life span and reproductive cost explain interspecific variation in the optimal onset of reproduction

Fitness can be profoundly influenced by the age at first reproduction (AFR), but to date the AFR–fitness relationship only has been investigated intraspecifically. Here, we investigated the relationship between AFR and average lifetime reproductive success (LRS) across 34 bird species. We assessed differences in the deviation of the Optimal AFR (i.e., the species‐specific AFR associated with the highest LRS) from the age at sexual maturity, considering potential effects of life history as well as social and ecological factors. Most individuals adopted the species‐specific Optimal AFR and both the mean and Optimal AFR of species correlated positively with life span. Interspecific deviations of the Optimal AFR were associated with indices reflecting a change in LRS or survival as a function of AFR: a delayed AFR was beneficial in species where early AFR was associated with a decrease in subsequent survival or reproductive output. Overall, our results suggest that a delayed onset of reproduction beyond maturity is an optimal strategy explained by a long life span and costs of early reproduction. By providing the first empirical confirmations of key predictions of life‐history theory across species, this study contributes to a better understanding of life‐history evolution.     

The interaction of multiple environmental stressors affects adaptation to a novel habitat in the natterjack toad Bufo calamita

The potential to adapt to novel environmental conditions is a key area of interest for evolutionary biology. However, the role of multiple selection pressures on adaptive responses has rarely been investigated in natural populations. In Sweden, the natterjack toad Bufo calamita inhabits two separate distribution areas, one in southernmost Sweden and one on the west coast. We characterized the larval habitat in terms of pond size and salinity in the two areas, and found that the western populations are more affected by both desiccation risk and pond salinity than the southern populations. In a common garden experiment manipulating salinity and temperature, we found that toads from the west coast populations were locally adapted to shorter pond duration as indicated by their higher development and growth rates. However, despite being subjected to higher salinity stress in nature, west coast toads had a poorer performance in saline treatments. We found that survival in the saline treatments in the west coast populations was positively affected by larger body mass and longer larval period. Furthermore, we found negative genetic correlations between body mass and growth rate and their plastic responses to salinity. These results implicate that the occurrence of multiple environmental stressors needs to be accounted for when assessing the adaptive potential of organisms and suggest that genetic correlations may play a role in constraining adaptation of natural populations.     

Patterns of mating-system evolution in hermaphroditic animals: correlations among selfing rate, inbreeding depression, and the timing of reproduction

In hermaphrodites, traits that influence the selfing rate can coevolve with inbreeding depression, leading to the emergence of evolutionary syndromes. Theory predicts a negative correlation between inbreeding depression and selfing rate across species. This prediction has only been examined and validated in vascular plants. Furthermore, selfing rates are often influenced by environmental conditions (e.g., lack of mates or pollinators), and species are predicted to evolve mechanisms to buffer this variation. We extend previous studies of mating-system syndromes in two ways. First, we assembled a new dataset on Basommatophoran snails (17 species, including new data on 12 species). Second, we measured how species responded to variation in mate availability. Specifically, we quantified the waiting time before selfing (i.e., how long the onset of reproduction is delayed in the absence of mates). Selfing rates were negatively correlated with both inbreeding depression and the waiting time. Species with stronger inbreeding depression exhibited longer waiting times. These patterns obtained on Basommatophorans still hold when including eight other hermaphroditic animals. Our results support the hypothesis that selection drives the evolution of mating-system syndromes in animals. The reaction norm of selfing rates to mate availability is a key target of natural selection in this context.     

Deconstructing environmental predictability: seasonality,environmental colour and the biogeography of marine life histories

Environmental predictability is predicted to shape the evolution of life histories. Two key types of environmental predictability, seasonality and environmental colour, may influence life‐history evolution independently but formal considerations of both and how they relate to life history are exceedingly rare. Here, in a global biogeographical analysis of over 800 marine invertebrates, we explore the relationships between both forms of environmental predictability and three fundamental life‐history traits: location of larval development (aplanktonic vs. planktonic), larval developmental mode (feeding vs. non‐feeding) and offspring size. We found that both dispersal potential and offspring size related to environmental predictability, but the relationships depended on both the environmental factor as well as the type of predictability. Environments that were more seasonal in food availability had a higher prevalence of species with a planktonic larval stage. Future studies should consider both types of environmental predictability as each can strongly affect life‐history evolution.     

Evaluating the life‐history trade‐off between dispersal capability and reproduction in wing dimorphic insects: a meta‐analysis

A life‐history trade‐off exists between flight capability and reproduction in many wing dimorphic insects: a long‐winged morph is flight‐capable at the expense of reproduction, while a short‐winged morph cannot fly, is less mobile, but has greater reproductive output. Using meta‐analyses, I investigated specific questions regarding this trade‐off. The trade‐off in females was expressed primarily as a later onset of egg production and lower fecundity in long‐winged females relative to short‐winged females. Although considerably less work has been done with males, the trade‐off exists for males among traits primarily related to mate acquisition. The trade‐off can potentially be mitigated in males, as long‐winged individuals possess an advantage in traits that can offset the costs of flight capability such as a shorter development time. The strength and direction of trends differed significantly among insect orders, and there was a relationship between the strength and direction of trends with the relative flight capabilities between the morphs. I discuss how the trade‐off might be both under‐ and overestimated in the literature, especially in light of work that has examined two relevant aspects of wing dimorphic species: (1) the effect of flight‐muscle histolysis on reproductive investment; and (2) the performance of actual flight by flight‐capable individuals.     

Climate change and the optimal flowering time of annual plants in seasonal environments

Long‐term phenology monitoring has documented numerous examples of changing flowering dates during the last century. A pivotal question is whether these phenological responses are adaptive or not under directionally changing climatic conditions. We use a classic dynamic growth model for annual plants, based on optimal control theory, to find the fitness‐maximizing flowering time, defined as the switching time from vegetative to reproductive growth. In a typical scenario of global warming, with advanced growing season and increased productivity, optimal flowering time advances less than the start of the growing season. Interestingly, increased temporal spread in production over the season may either advance or delay the optimal flowering time depending on overall productivity or season length. We identify situations where large phenological changes are necessary for flowering time to remain optimal. Such changes also indicate changed selection pressures. In other situations, the model predicts advanced phenology on a calendar scale, but no selection for early flowering in relation to the start of the season. We also show that the optimum is more sensitive to increased productivity when productivity is low than when productivity is high. All our results are derived using a general, graphical method to calculate the optimal flowering time applicable for a large range of shapes of the seasonal production curve. The model can thus explain apparent maladaptation in phenological responses in a multitude of scenarios of climate change. We conclude that taking energy allocation trade‐offs and appropriate time scales into account is critical when interpreting phenological patterns.     

Divergent trends in life‐history traits between Atlantic salmon Salmo salar of wild and hatchery origin in the Baltic Sea

Four Atlantic salmon Salmo salar stocks in the Baltic Sea, varying in their breeding history, were studied for changes in life‐history traits over the years 1972–1995. Total length (L_T) at age of captured (L_TC) fish had increased throughout the study period, partly due to increased temperature and increased L_T at release, (L_TR) but also due to remaining cohort effects that could represent unaccounted environmental or genetic change. Simultaneously, maturation probabilities controlled for water temperature, L_TC and L_TR had increased in all stocks. The least change was observed in the River Tornionjoki S. salar that was subject only to supportive stockings originating from wild parents. These results suggest a long‐term divergence between semi‐natural and broodstock‐based S. salar stocks. Increased L_T at age explained advanced maturation only marginally, and it remains an open question to what extent the generally increased probabilities to mature at early age reflected underlying genetic changes.     

A review of the likely effects of climate change on anadromous Atlantic salmon Salmo salar and brown trout Salmo trutta,with particular reference to water temperature and flow

The present paper reviews the effects of water temperature and flow on migrations, embryonic development, hatching, emergence, growth and life‐history traits in light of the ongoing climate change with emphasis on anadromous Atlantic salmon Salmo salar and brown trout Salmo trutta. The expected climate change in the Atlantic is for milder and wetter winters, with more precipitation falling as rain and less as snow, decrease in ice‐covered periods and frequent periods with extreme weather. Overall, thermal limits for salmonids are species specific. Scope for activity and growth and optimal temperature for growth increase with temperature to an optimal point before constrain by the oxygen content of the water. The optimal temperature for growth decreases with increasing fish size and varies little among populations within species, whereas the growth efficiency may be locally adapted to the temperature conditions of the home stream during the growth season. Indirectly, temperature influences age and size at smolting through its effect on growth. Time of spawning, egg hatching and emergence of the larvae vary with temperature and selective effects on time of first feeding. Traits such as age at first maturity, longevity and fecundity decrease with increasing temperature whilst egg size increases with temperature. Water flow influences the accessibility of rivers for returning adults and speed of both upstream and downstream migration. Extremes in water flow and temperature can decrease recruitment and survival. There is reason to expect a northward movement of the thermal niche of anadromous salmonids with decreased production and population extinction in the southern part of the distribution areas, migrations earlier in the season, later spawning, younger age at smolting and sexual maturity and increased disease susceptibility and mortality. Future research challenges are summarized at the end of the paper.     

Effects of reproductive timing and colony size on the survival, offspring colony size and drone production in the honey bee (Apis mellifera)

ABSTRACT. 1. The effects of colony size and time of reproduction on the survival and size of offspring colonies and on drone production were examined for honey bees, Apis mellifera L. Drone and worker production and survival of parental and offspring colonies were monitored following swarming. Also, the temporal patterns of drone emergence and availability of unmated queens were examined.
2. Colony size at swarming was positively correlated with the number of workers invested in offspring colonies and the number of queens produced. However, colony size at swarming was not correlated with the number of offspring colonies produced.
3. Swarm size was positively correlated with drone and worker production after swarms were hived. Worker production of hived swarms was positively correlated with colony survival. Offspring queens which inherited a parental nest survived longer than queens in either primary swarms or afterswarms, presumably due to the advantage of inheriting a nest.
4. Drone emergence peaked just prior to swarming, the time when unmated queens were available. High drone production by colonies initiated by swarms probably reflected an attempt to reproduce prior to winter. The probabilities of a second swarming cycle within the same year and of surviving the winter were low for colonies initiated from swarms.     

A matter of timing: changes in the first date of arrival and last date of departure of Australian migratory birds

Although there is substantial evidence that Northern Hemisphere species have responded to climatic change over the last few decades, there is little documented evidence that Southern Hemisphere species have responded in the same way. Here, we report that Australian migratory birds have undergone changes in the first arrival date (FAD) and last date of departure (LDD) of a similar magnitude as species from the Northern Hemisphere. We compiled data on arrival and departure of migratory birds in south‐east Australia since 1960 from the published literature, Bird Observer Reports, and personal observations from bird watchers. Data on the FAD for 24 species and the LDD for 12 species were analyzed. Sixteen species were short‐ to middle‐distance species arriving at their breeding grounds, seven were long‐distance migrants arriving at their nonbreeding grounds, and one was a middle‐distance migrant also arriving at its nonbreeding ground. For 12 species, we gathered data from more than one location, enabling us to assess the consistency of intraspecific trends at different locations. Regressions of climate variables against year show that across south‐east Australia average annual maximum and minimum temperatures have increased by 0.17°C and 0.13°C decade^?1 since 1960, respectively. Over this period there has been an average advance in arrival of 3.5 days decade^?1; 16 of the 45 time‐series (representing 12 of the 24 species studied) showed a significant trend toward earlier arrival, while only one time‐series showed a significant delay. Conversely, there has been an average delay in departure of 5.1 days decade^?1; four of the 21 departure time‐series (four species) showed a significant trend toward later departure, while one species showed a significant trend toward earlier departure. However, differences emerge between the arrival and departure of short‐ to middle‐distance species visiting south‐east Australia to breed compared with long‐distance species that spend their nonbreeding period here. On average, short‐ to middle‐distance migrants have arrived at their breeding grounds 3.1 days decade^?1 earlier and delayed departure by 8.1 days decade^?1, thus extending the time spent in their breeding grounds by ～11 days decade^?1. The average advance in arrival at the nonbreeding grounds of long‐distance migrants is 6.8 days decade^?1. These species, however, have also advanced departure by an average of 6.9 days decade^?1. Hence, the length of stay has not changed but rather, the timing of events has advanced. The patterns of change in FAD and LDD of Australian migratory birds are of a similar magnitude to changes undergone by Northern Hemisphere species, and add further evidence that the modest warming experienced over the past few decades has already had significant biological impacts on a global scale.     

Lake‐specific variation in growth,migration timing and survival of juvenile sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka: separating environmental from genetic influences

Time series on juvenile life‐history traits obtained from sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka were analysed to assess lake‐specific environmental influences on juvenile migration timing, size and survival of fish from a common gene pool. Every year for the past two decades, O. nerka have been spawned at a hatchery facility, and the progeny released into two lakes that differ in average summer temperatures, limnological attributes and growth opportunities. Juveniles reared in the warmer, more productive Crosswind Lake were larger and heavier as smolts compared to those from the cooler, less productive Summit Lake and had higher in‐lake and subsequent marine survival. Crosswind Lake smolts migrated from the lake to sea slightly earlier in the season but the migration timing distributions overlapped considerably across years. Fry stocking density had a negative effect on smolt length for both lakes, and a negative effect on in‐lake survival in Summit Lake. Taken together, the results revealed a strong effect of lake‐rearing environment on the expression of life‐history variation in O. nerka. The stocking of these lakes each year with juveniles from a single mixed‐source population provided a large‐scale reverse common‐garden experiment, where the same gene pool was exposed to different environments, rather than the different gene pools in the same environment approach typical of evolutionary ecology studies. Other researchers are encouraged to seek and exploit similar serendipitous situations, which might allow environmental and genetic influences on ecologically important traits to be distinguished in natural or semi‐natural settings.     

Hot and not‐so‐hot females: reproductive state and thermal preferences of female Arizona Bark Scorpions (Centruroides sculpturatus)

For ectotherms, environmental temperatures influence numerous life history characteristics, and the body temperatures (T_b) selected by individuals can affect offspring fitness and parental survival. Reproductive trade‐offs may therefore ensue for gravid females, because temperatures conducive to embryonic development may compromise females' body condition. We tested whether reproduction influenced thermoregulation in female Arizona Bark Scorpions (Centruroides sculpturatus). We predicted that gravid females select higher T_b and thermoregulate more precisely than nonreproductive females. Gravid C. sculpturatus gain body mass throughout gestation, which exposes larger portions of their pleural membrane, possibly increasing their rates of transcuticular water loss in arid environments. Accordingly, we tested whether gravid C. sculpturatus lose water faster than nonreproductive females. We determined the preferred T_b of female scorpions in a thermal gradient and measured water loss rates using flow‐through respirometry. Gravid females preferred significantly higher T_b than nonreproductive females, suggesting that gravid C. sculpturatus alter their thermoregulatory behaviour to promote offspring fitness. However, all scorpions thermoregulated with equal precision, perhaps because arid conditions create selective pressure on all females to thermoregulate effectively. Gravid females lost water faster than nonreproductive animals, indicating that greater exposure of the pleural membrane during gestation enhances the desiccation risk of reproductive females. Our findings suggest that gravid C. sculpturatus experience a trade‐off, whereby selection of higher T_b and increased mass during gestation increase females' susceptibility to water loss, and thus their mortality risk. Elucidating the mechanisms that influence thermal preferences may reveal how reproductive trade‐offs shape the life history of ectotherms in arid environments.