Dynamics of Japanese Encephalitis Virus Transmission among Pigs in Northwest Bangladesh and the Potential Impact of Pig Vaccination

Background

Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus infection can cause severe disease in humans, resulting in death or permanent neurologic deficits among survivors. Studies indicate that the incidence of JE is high in northwestern Bangladesh. Pigs are amplifying hosts for JE virus (JEV) and a potentially important source of virus in the environment. The objectives of this study were to describe the transmission dynamics of JEV among pigs in northwestern Bangladesh and estimate the potential impact of vaccination to reduce incidence among pigs.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted a comprehensive census of pigs in three JE endemic districts and tested a sample of them for evidence of previous JEV infection. We built a compartmental model to describe JEV transmission dynamics in this region and to estimate the potential impact of pig vaccination. We identified 11,364 pigs in the study area. Previous JEV infection was identified in 30% of pigs with no spatial differences in the proportion of pigs that were seropositive across the study area. We estimated that JEV infects 20% of susceptible pigs each year and the basic reproductive number among pigs was 1.2. The model suggest that vaccinating 50% of pigs each year resulted in an estimated 82% reduction in annual incidence in pigs.

Conclusions/Significance

The widespread distribution of historic JEV infection in pigs suggests they may play an important role in virus transmission in this area. Future studies are required to understand the contribution of pig infections to JE risk in humans and the potential impact of pig vaccination on human disease.     

Dengue Dynamics in Binh Thuan Province,Southern Vietnam: Periodicity,Synchronicity and Climate Variability

Background

Dengue is a major global public health problem with increasing incidence and geographic spread. The epidemiology is complex with long inter-epidemic intervals and endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This study was initiated to investigate dengue transmission dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam.

Methodology

Wavelet analyses were performed on time series of monthly notified dengue cases from January 1994 to June 2009 (i) to detect and quantify dengue periodicity, (ii) to describe synchrony patterns in both time and space, (iii) to investigate the spatio-temporal waves and (iv) to associate the relationship between dengue incidence and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam.

Principal Findings

We demonstrate a continuous annual mode of oscillation and a multi-annual cycle of around 2–3-years was solely observed from 1996–2001. Synchrony in time and between districts was detected for both the annual and 2–3-year cycle. Phase differences used to describe the spatio-temporal patterns suggested that the seasonal wave of infection was either synchronous among all districts or moving away from Phan Thiet district. The 2–3-year periodic wave was moving towards, rather than away from Phan Thiet district. A strong non-stationary association between ENSO indices and climate variables with dengue incidence in the 2–3-year periodic band was found.

Conclusions

A multi-annual mode of oscillation was observed and these 2–3-year waves of infection probably started outside Binh Thuan province. Associations with climatic variables were observed with dengue incidence. Here, we have provided insight in dengue population transmission dynamics over the past 14.5 years. Further studies on an extensive time series dataset are needed to test the hypothesis that epidemics emanate from larger cities in southern Vietnam.     

Selection and Characterization of DNA Aptamers Targeting All Four Serotypes of Dengue Viruses

Dengue viruses (DENVs) are members of Flaviviridae family, which are associated with human disease. The envelope (E) protein plays an important role in viral infection. However, there is no effective antibody for clinical treatment due to antibody dependent enhancement of infection. In this study, using Systematic Evolution of Ligands by Exponential Enrichment (SELEX), we demonstrated the first aptamer (S15) that can bind to DENV-2 envelop protein domain III (ED3) with a high binding affinity. S15 was found to form a parallel quadruplex based on Quadfinder prediction, gel mobility assay and circular dichroism studies. Both the quadruplex structure and the sequence on 5’-end were necessary for the binding activity of S15. NMR titration experiments indicated that S15 bound to a highly conserved loop between β_A and β_B strands of ED3. Moreover, S15 can neutralize the infections by all four serotypes of DENVs. Our result provides a new opportunity in the development of DNA aptamers against DENVs in the future.     

Induction of Neutralizing Antibodies against Four Serotypes of Dengue Viruses by MixBiEDIII,a Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine

The worldwide expansion of four serotypes of dengue virus (DENV) poses great risk to global public health. Several vaccine candidates are under development. However, none is yet available for humans. In the present study, a novel strategy to produce tetravalent DENV vaccine based on envelope protein domain III (EDIII) was proposed. Tandem EDIIIs of two serotypes (type 1–2 and type 3–4) of DENV connected by a Gly-Ser linker ((Gly₄Ser)₃) were expressed in E. coli, respectively. Then, the two bivalent recombinant EDIIIs were equally mixed to form the tetravalent vaccine candidate MixBiEDIII, and used to immunize BALB/c mice. The results showed that specific IgG and neutralizing antibodies against all four serotypes of DENV were successfully induced in the MixBiEDIII employing Freund adjuvant immunized mice. Furthermore, in the suckling mouse model, sera from mice immunized with MixBiEDIII provided significant protection against four serotypes of DENV challenge. Our data demonstrated that MixBiEDIII, as a novel form of subunit vaccine candidates, might have the potential to be further developed as a tetravalent dengue vaccine in the near future.     

Households as Foci for Dengue Transmission in Highly Urban Vietnam

Background

Dengue control programs commonly employ reactive insecticide spraying around houses of reported cases, with the assumption that most dengue virus (DENV) transmission occurs in the home. Focal household transmission has been demonstrated in rural settings, but it is unclear whether this holds true in dense and mobile urban populations. We conducted a prospective study of dengue clustering around households in highly urban Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

Methods

We enrolled 71 index cases with suspected dengue (subsequently classified as 52 dengue cases and 19 non-dengue controls); each initiated the enrollment of a cluster of 25–35 household members and neighbors who were followed up over 14 days. Incident DENV infections in cluster participants were identified by RT-PCR, NS1-ELISA, and/or DENV-IgM/-IgG seroconversion, and recent infections by DENV-IgM positivity at baseline.

Principal Findings/Conclusions

There was no excess risk of DENV infection within dengue case clusters during the two-week follow-up, compared to control clusters, but the prevalence of recent DENV infection at baseline was two-fold higher in case clusters than controls (OR 2.3, 95%CI 1.0–5.1, p = 0.05). Prevalence of DENV infection in Aedes aegypti was similar in case and control houses, and low overall (1%). Our findings are broadly consistent with household clustering of dengue risk, but indicate that any clustering is at a short temporal scale rather than sustained chains of localized transmission. This suggests that reactive perifocal insecticide spraying may have a limited impact in this setting.     

Virological Surveillance of Aedes aegypti Vectors Identifies All Four Dengue Serotypes in a Hyperendemic Region

EcoHealth - Dengue virus (DENV) 1–4 is the etiological agent of dengue, the most important viral infection transmitted by Aedes spp mosquitoes to humans. Our goal was to identify the...     

Assessing the Potential Impact of Hormonal-Based Contraceptives on HIV Transmission Dynamics Among Heterosexuals

HIV susceptibility linked to hormonal contraception (HC) has been studied before, but with mixed results. Reports from some of the recent findings have prompted the World Health Organisation to encourage women who use HC to concurrently use condoms in order to prevent HIV infection in the light of possible increased HIV risk of infection associated with hormone-based contraceptives. A two-sex HIV model classifying women into three risk groups consisting of individuals who use condoms, natural methods, and hormone-based contraceptives is formulated and analysed to assess the possible effects of various birth control strategies on the transmission dynamics of the disease. Our model results showed that women who use HC could be key drivers of the epidemic and that their increased infectivity may be critical in driving the epidemic. Women who use hormone-based contraceptives potentially act as a core group from which men get infected and in turn transmit the disease to other population groups. We fitted the model to HIV prevalence data for Zimbabwe reported by UNAIDS and Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Care and used the model fit to project HIV prevalence. Predictions using HIV data for Zimbabwe suggest that a hypothesised increase in susceptibility and infectivity of two-, three-, and fourfold would result in a 25, 50, and 100% increase in baseline HIV prevalence projection, respectively, thus suggesting possible increased disease burden even in countries reporting plausible HIV prevalence declines. Although a possible causal relationship between HIV susceptibility and HC use remains subject of continuing scientific probe, its inclusion as part of birth control strategy has been shown in this study, to possibly increase HIV transmission. If proven, HC use may potentially explain the inordinate spread of HIV within the sub-Saharan Africa region and therefore compel for urgent assessment with a view to reorienting birth control methods in use in settings with generalised epidemics.     

Predicting the Impact of Vaccination on the Transmission Dynamics of Typhoid in South Asia: A Mathematical Modeling Study

Background

Modeling of the transmission dynamics of typhoid allows for an evaluation of the potential direct and indirect effects of vaccination; however, relevant typhoid models rooted in data have rarely been deployed.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We developed a parsimonious age-structured model describing the natural history and immunity to typhoid infection. The model was fit to data on culture-confirmed cases of typhoid fever presenting to Christian Medical College hospital in Vellore, India from 2000–2012. The model was then used to evaluate the potential impact of school-based vaccination strategies using live oral, Vi-polysaccharide, and Vi-conjugate vaccines. The model was able to reproduce the incidence and age distribution of typhoid cases in Vellore. The basic reproductive number (R ₀) of typhoid was estimated to be 2.8 in this setting. Vaccination was predicted to confer substantial indirect protection leading to a decrease in the incidence of typhoid in the short term, but (intuitively) typhoid incidence was predicted to rebound 5–15 years following a one-time campaign.

Conclusions/Significance

We found that model predictions for the overall and indirect effects of vaccination depend strongly on the role of chronic carriers in transmission. Carrier transmissibility was tentatively estimated to be low, consistent with recent studies, but was identified as a pivotal area for future research. It is unlikely that typhoid can be eliminated from endemic settings through vaccination alone.     

Efficient Assembly and Secretion of Recombinant Subviral Particles of the Four Dengue Serotypes Using Native prM and E Proteins

Background

Flavivirus infected cells produce infectious virions and subviral particles, both of which are formed by the assembly of prM and E envelope proteins and are believed to undergo the same maturation process. Dengue recombinant subviral particles have been produced in cell cultures with either modified or chimeric proteins but not using the native forms of prM and E.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We have used a codon optimization strategy to obtain an efficient expression of native viral proteins and production of recombinant subviral particles (RSPs) for all four dengue virus (DV) serotypes. A stable HeLa cell line expressing DV1 prME was established (HeLa-prME) and RSPs were analyzed by immunofluorescence and transmission electron microscopy. We found that E protein is mainly present in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) where assembly of RSPs could be observed. Biochemical characterization of DV1 RSPs secretion revealed both prM protein cleavage and homodimerization of E proteins before their release into the supernatant, indicating that RSPs undergo a similar maturation process as dengue virus. Pulse chase experiment showed that 8 hours are required for the secretion of DV1 RSPs. We have used HeLa-prME to develop a semi-quantitative assay and screened a human siRNA library targeting genes involved in membrane trafficking. Knockdown of 23 genes resulted in a significant reduction in DV RSP secretion, whereas for 22 others we observed an increase of RSP levels in cell supernatant.

Conclusions/Significance

Our data describe the efficient production of RSPs containing native prM and E envelope proteins for all dengue serotypes. Dengue RSPs and corresponding producing cell lines are safe and novel tools that can be used in the study of viral egress as well as in the development of vaccine and drugs against dengue virus.     

Infectivity of Dengue Virus Serotypes 1 and 2 Is Correlated with E-Protein Intrinsic Dynamics but Not to Envelope Conformations

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Hand,Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: Modeling Epidemic Dynamics of Enterovirus Serotypes and Implications for Vaccination

Background

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood illness caused by serotypes of the Enterovirus A species in the genus Enterovirus of the Picornaviridae family. The disease has had a substantial burden throughout East and Southeast Asia over the past 15 y. China reported 9 million cases of HFMD between 2008 and 2013, with the two serotypes Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) being responsible for the majority of these cases. Three recent phase 3 clinical trials showed that inactivated monovalent EV-A71 vaccines manufactured in China were highly efficacious against HFMD associated with EV-A71, but offered no protection against HFMD caused by CV-A16. To better inform vaccination policy, we used mathematical models to evaluate the effect of prospective vaccination against EV-A71-associated HFMD and the potential risk of serotype replacement by CV-A16. We also extended the model to address the co-circulation, and implications for vaccination, of additional non-EV-A71, non-CV-A16 serotypes of enterovirus.

Methods and Findings

Weekly reports of HFMD incidence from 31 provinces in Mainland China from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013 were used to fit multi-serotype time series susceptible–infected–recovered (TSIR) epidemic models. We obtained good model fit for the two-serotype TSIR with cross-protection, capturing the seasonality and geographic heterogeneity of province-level transmission, with strong correlation between the observed and simulated epidemic series. The national estimate of the basic reproduction number, R ₀, weighted by provincial population size, was 26.63 for EV-A71 (interquartile range [IQR]: 23.14, 30.40) and 27.13 for CV-A16 (IQR: 23.15, 31.34), with considerable variation between provinces (however, predictions about the overall impact of vaccination were robust to this variation). EV-A71 incidence was projected to decrease monotonically with higher coverage rates of EV-A71 vaccination. Across provinces, CV-A16 incidence in the post-EV-A71-vaccination period remained either comparable to or only slightly increased from levels prior to vaccination. The duration and strength of cross-protection following infection with EV-A71 or CV-A16 was estimated to be 9.95 wk (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.31, 23.40) in 68% of the population (95% CI: 37%, 96%). Our predictions are limited by the necessarily short and under-sampled time series and the possible circulation of unidentified serotypes, but, nonetheless, sensitivity analyses indicate that our results are robust in predicting that the vaccine should drastically reduce incidence of EV-A71 without a substantial competitive release of CV-A16.

Conclusions

The ability of our models to capture the observed epidemic cycles suggests that herd immunity is driving the epidemic dynamics caused by the multiple serotypes of enterovirus. Our results predict that the EV-A71 and CV-A16 serotypes provide a temporary immunizing effect against each other. Achieving high coverage rates of EV-A71 vaccination would be necessary to eliminate the ongoing transmission of EV-A71, but serotype replacement by CV-A16 following EV-A71 vaccination is likely to be transient and minor compared to the corresponding reduction in the burden of EV-A71-associated HFMD. Therefore, a mass EV-A71 vaccination program of infants and young children should provide significant benefits in terms of a reduction in overall HFMD burden.     

Cissampelos pareira Linn: Natural Source of Potent Antiviral Activity against All Four Dengue Virus Serotypes

Background

Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease, poses a significant global public health risk. In tropical countries such as India where periodic dengue outbreaks can be correlated to the high prevalence of the mosquito vector, circulation of all four dengue viruses (DENVs) and the high population density, a drug for dengue is being increasingly recognized as an unmet public health need.

Methodology/Principal findings

Using the knowledge of traditional Indian medicine, Ayurveda, we developed a systematic bioassay-guided screening approach to explore the indigenous herbal bio-resource to identify plants with pan-DENV inhibitory activity. Our results show that the alcoholic extract of Cissampelos pariera Linn (Cipa extract) was a potent inhibitor of all four DENVs in cell-based assays, assessed in terms of viral NS1 antigen secretion using ELISA, as well as viral replication, based on plaque assays. Virus yield reduction assays showed that Cipa extract could decrease viral titers by an order of magnitude. The extract conferred statistically significant protection against DENV infection using the AG129 mouse model. A preliminary evaluation of the clinical relevance of Cipa extract showed that it had no adverse effects on platelet counts and RBC viability. In addition to inherent antipyretic activity in Wistar rats, it possessed the ability to down-regulate the production of TNF-α, a cytokine implicated in severe dengue disease. Importantly, it showed no evidence of toxicity in Wistar rats, when administered at doses as high as 2g/Kg body weight for up to 1 week.

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings above, taken in the context of the human safety of Cipa, based on its use in Indian traditional medicine, warrant further work to explore Cipa as a source for the development of an inexpensive herbal formulation for dengue therapy. This may be of practical relevance to a dengue-endemic resource-poor country such as India.     

登革病毒基因组核苷酸序列与血清学分型的相关性研究

为证明登革病毒基因组核苷酸序列与病毒血清学分型的相关性,本文以病毒全基因组和病毒5′末端非编码区,E蛋白,NS1蛋白和3′末端非编码区四个基因区段分别进行病毒型间比较.比较结果表明病毒全基因组和病毒的各个基因区段均明显分为相互独立的4个分支,与病毒血清型分型完全吻合,不存在型间重组的现象.文章进一步分析了各型登革病毒型内核酸序列的相似性和型内病毒重组的可能性.     

The Impact of Model Building on the Transmission Dynamics under Vaccination: Observable (Symptom-Based) versus Unobservable (Contagiousness-Dependent) Approaches

Background

The way we formulate a mathematical model of an infectious disease to capture symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission can greatly influence the likely effectiveness of vaccination in the presence of vaccine effect for preventing clinical illness. The present study aims to assess the impact of model building strategy on the epidemic threshold under vaccination.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We consider two different types of mathematical models, one based on observable variables including symptom onset and recovery from clinical illness (hereafter, the “observable model”) and the other based on unobservable information of infection event and infectiousness (the “unobservable model”). By imposing a number of modifying assumptions to the observable model, we let it mimic the unobservable model, identifying that the two models are fully consistent only when the incubation period is identical to the latent period and when there is no pre-symptomatic transmission. We also computed the reproduction numbers with and without vaccination, demonstrating that the data generating process of vaccine-induced reduction in symptomatic illness is consistent with the observable model only and examining how the effective reproduction number is differently calculated by two models.

Conclusions

To explicitly incorporate the vaccine effect in reducing the risk of symptomatic illness into the model, it is fruitful to employ a model that directly accounts for disease progression. More modeling studies based on observable epidemiological information are called for.     

Epidemiology of Infant Dengue Cases Illuminates Serotype-Specificity in the Interaction between Immunity and Disease,and Changes in Transmission Dynamics

Background

Infants born to dengue immune mothers acquire maternal antibodies to dengue. These antibodies, though initially protective, decline during the first year of life to levels thought to be disease enhancing, before reaching undetectable levels. Infants have long been studied to understand the interaction between infection and disease on an individual level.

Methods/Findings

Considering infants (cases <1 year old) as a unique group, we analyzed serotype specific dengue case data from patients admitted to a pediatric hospital in Bangkok, Thailand. We show differences in the propensity of serotypes to cause disease in individuals with dengue antibodies (infants and post-primary cases) and in individuals without dengue antibodies (primary cases). The mean age of infant cases differed among serotypes, consistent with previously observed differential waning of maternal antibody titers by serotype. We show that trends over time in epidemiology of infant cases are consistent with those observed in the whole population, and therefore with trends in the force of infection.

Conclusions/Significance

Infants with dengue are informative about the interaction between antibody and the dengue serotypes, confirming that in this population DENV-2 and DENV-4 almost exclusively cause disease in the presence of dengue antibody despite infections occurring in others. We also observe differences between the serotypes in the mean age in infant cases, informative about the interaction between waning immunity and disease for the different serotypes in infants. In addition, we show that the mean age of infant cases over time is informative about transmission in the whole population. Therefore, ongoing surveillance for dengue in infants could provide useful insights into dengue epidemiology, particularly after the introduction of a dengue vaccine targeting adults and older children.     

First Evidence of Simultaneous Circulation of Three Different Dengue Virus Serotypes in Africa

Gabon, in Central Africa, was affected for the first time in 2007 and then in 2010 by simultaneous outbreaks of chikungunya and Dengue serotype 2 (DENV-2) viruses. Through the national surveillance of dengue-like syndromes between 2007 and 2010, we observed continuous circulation of DENV-2 in a southward movement. This rapid spread of DENV-2 was associated with the emergence of DENV-1 in 2007 and DENV-3 in 2010. Interestingly, we detected six DENV-2 infected patients with hemorrhagic signs during the second outbreak in 2010. Although these cases do not meet all standard WHO criteria for severe Dengue with hemorrhage (formerly DHF), this is the first report of several dengue fever cases associated with hemorrhagic signs during a simultaneous circulation of different DENV serotypes in Africa. Together, these findings suggest that DENV is becoming more widely established on this continent and that DHF will likely become a serious public-health problem in the near future.     

Mosquito-Parasite Interactions Can Shape Filariasis Transmission Dynamics and Impact Elimination Programs

The relationship between mosquito vectors and lymphatic filariasis (LF) parasites can result in a range of transmission outcomes. Anophelines are generally characterized as poor vectors due to an inability to support development at low densities. However, it is important to understand the potential for transmission in natural vectors to maximize the success of elimination efforts. Primary vectors in Papua New Guinea (n = 1209) were dissected following exposure to microfilaremic blood (range 8–233 mf/20 µl). We examined density dependent and species-specific parasite prevalence, intensity and yield, barriers to parasite development as well as impacts on mosquito survival. We observed strikingly different parasite prevalence and yield among closely related species. Prevalence of infective stage larvae (L3s) ranged from 4.2% to 23.7% in An. punctulatus, 24.5% to 68.6% in An. farauti s.s. and 61.9% to 100% in An. hinesorum at low and high density exposures, respectively. Injection experiments revealed the greatest barrier to parasite development involved passage from the midgut into the hemocoel. The ratio of L3 to ingested mf at low densities was higher in An. hinesorum (yield = 1.0) and An. farauti s.s. (yield = 0.5) than has been reported in other anopheline vectors. There was a negative relationship between mosquito survival and bloodmeal mf density. In An. farauti s.s., increased parasite yield and survival at low densities suggest greater competence at low microfilaremias. In Papua New Guinea the likelihood of transmission will be strongly influenced by vector composition and changes in the mf reservoir as a result of elimination efforts. Global elimination efforts will be strengthened by the knowledge of transmission potential in the context of current control measures.