Weather indices for designing micro-insurance products for small-holder farmers in the tropics

Agriculture is inherently risky. Drought is a particularly troublesome hazard that has a documented adverse impact on agricultural development. A long history of decision-support tools have been developed to try and help farmers or policy makers manage risk. We offer site-specific drought insurance methodology as a significant addition to this process. Drought insurance works by encapsulating the best available scientific estimate of drought probability and severity at a site within a single number- the insurance premium, which is offered by insurers to insurable parties in a transparent risk-sharing agreement. The proposed method is demonstrated in a case study for dry beans in Nicaragua.     

国家公园农户对野生动物肇事保险购买意愿及其影响因素——以大熊猫国家公园为例

国家公园内人与野生动物冲突严重,建立野生动物肇事保险机制是减缓冲突的重要举措。以大熊猫国家公园周边社区为例,分析建立国家公园以及农户风险偏好对野生动物肇事保险购买意愿的影响,并探讨冲突程度和制度信任的中介效应。研究结果表明建立国家公园显著增加了农户野生动物肇事保险购买意愿,而农户风险偏好对保险购买意愿会产生负向显著影响。冲突程度和制度信任是重要的中介变量,冲突程度和制度信任均对农户保险购买意愿产生正向显著影响。建立国家公园显著增加了人与野生动物冲突严重程度,进而对保险购买意愿产生正向影响。此外,建立国家公园显著降低了农户制度信任,进而对保险购买意愿产生负向影响。农户风险偏好对野生动物肇事损失程度产生正向显著影响,进而对保险购买意愿产生正向影响。农户风险偏好对制度信任影响并不显著。基于此,研究提出吸纳社会资本参与,拓宽野生动物肇事保险资金来源,开展社区共管、地役权补偿等措施提升社区信任以及建立基于农户自主防护行为的野生动物肇事保险机制等政策建议。     

Development of a Composite Index with Quantitative Indicators for Drought Disaster Risk Analysis at the Micro Level

It is the aim of this study to provide non-state as well as state actors with an effective tool to assess the drought risk of households. The developed methodology introduces a technique for comparative measuring in the context of drought disaster risk management. This approach is designed to contribute to the effectiveness and accuracy of drought risk analyses at the micro level. In a process of qualitative and quantitative empirical research in East India, 10 single indicators for drought risk at the household level have been developed and validated. Based on this, methods of combining these single indicators within a composite index are introduced. Within the study area in Orissa, this instrument can be used for drought risk analysis in order to prioritize preventive measures. Outside the study area, the developed methodology can be adopted to gain suitable risk indicators and composite index weighting criteria. This study tackles the desire of disaster risk management projects for comparative risk analysis at the micro level and demonstrates how certain characteristics of households’ can be quantified. Thus the developed instrument facilitates prioritizing preventive actions for the most vulnerable households.     

Monoamine Oxidase A Gene (MAOA) Associated with Attitude Towards Longshot Risks

Decision making often entails longshot risks involving a small chance of receiving a substantial outcome. People tend to be risk preferring (averse) when facing longshot risks involving significant gains (losses). This differentiation towards longshot risks underpins the markets for lottery as well as for insurance. Both lottery and insurance have emerged since ancient times and continue to play a useful role in the modern economy. In this study, we observe subjects'' incentivized choices in a controlled laboratory setting, and investigate their association with a widely studied, promoter-region repeat functional polymorphism in monoamine oxidase A gene (MAOA). We find that subjects with the high activity (4-repeat) allele are characterized by a preference for the longshot lottery and also less insurance purchasing than subjects with the low activity (3-repeat) allele. This is the first result to link attitude towards longshot risks to a specific gene. It complements recent findings on the neurobiological basis of economic risk taking.     

Genetic analysis for drought resistance of rice at reproductive stage in field with different types of soil

Drought resistance of rice is a complex trait and is mainly determined by mechanisms of drought avoidance and drought tolerance. The present study was conducted to characterize the genetic basis of drought resistance at reproductive stage in field by analyzing the QTLs for drought response index (DRI, normalized by potential yield and flowering time), relative yield, relative spikelet fertility, and four traits of plant water status and their relationships with root traits using a recombinant inbred population derived from a cross between an indica rice and upland rice. A total of 39 QTLs for these traits were detected with individual QTL explained 5.1–32.1% of phenotypic variation. Only two QTLs for plant water status were commonly detected in two environments, suggesting different mechanisms might exist in two types of soil conditions. DRI has no correlation with potential yield and flowering time under control, suggesting that it can be used as a good drought resistance index in field conditions. The co-location of QTLs for canopy temperature and delaying in flowering time suggested a usefulness of these two traits as indexes in drought resistance screening. Correlation and QTL congruence between root traits and putative drought tolerance traits revealed that drought avoidance (via thick and deep root traits) was the main genetic basis of drought resistance in sandy soil condition, while drought tolerance may play more role in the genetic basis of drought resistance in paddy soil condition. Therefore, both drought mechanisms and soil textures must be considered in the improvement of drought resistance at reproductive stage in rice.     

Does crop genetic diversity support positive biodiversity effects under experimental drought?

Enhancing diversity within crop systems can have benefits including increased resource use efficiency and productivity, and increased control of weeds, pests and diseases. Some benefits are expected to operate through biodiversity-driven insurance effects, whereby enhanced diversity increases the chance that a system component can compensate for the impacts of adverse environmental conditions. Studies of insurance effects in natural and agricultural systems have provided equivocal results. As insurance effects are expected to play a key role in helping to maintain crop production in more variable future climates (for example under periodic drought), it is essential to know when and how they operate and interact with other potentially beneficial biodiversity-function effects. Using barley as a model crop, and pot-based plant communities, we studied the interactive effects of barley cultivar diversity and drought stress on plant productivity and the response of agricultural weeds, fungal disease, and aphids. Drought reduced barley and weed biomass, but there were no interactive effects of drought and cultivar diversity on plant productivity. Increased cultivar diversity enhanced weed suppression, potentially as a result of reduced functional space availability, and reduced disease severity on a susceptible cultivar; these effects were consistent irrespective of drought. Aphid responses were more complex, with idiosyncratic response patterns on individual cultivars. Overall, we found no evidence of an insurance effect of enhanced cultivar diversity for the negative impact of drought on crop productivity, but our results indicate that other positive biodiversity effects (weed and disease suppression) are maintained under drought. However, it is clear that not all potentially-beneficial biodiversity effects respond in the same manner. Field trials are now needed to explore whether a range of responses also occur in crop field settings, whether these can be expected to occur predictably under a range of environmental conditions, and how these then impact on crop production.     

Risk Assessment and Life-Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) for Human Health Cancerous and Noncancerous Emissions: Integrated and Complementary with Consistency within the USEPA

The historical parallels, complementary roles, and potential for integration of human health risk assessment (RA) and Life-Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) are explored. Previous authors have considered the comparison of LCA and risk assessment recognizing the inherent differences in LCA and risk assessment (e.g., LCA's focus on the functional unit, and the differences in perspective of LCA and risk assessment), and also the commonalities (e.g., the basis for the modeling). Until this time, however, no one has proposed a coordinated approach for conducting LCA and risk assessment using models consistent with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA's) handbooks, policies, and guidelines. The current status of LCIA methodology development can be compared to the early days of human health RA when practitioners were overwhelmed with the model choices, assumptions, lack of data, and poor data quality. Although methodology developers can build on the shoulders of the giant, LCIA requires more innovation to deal with more impact categories, more life-cycle stages, and less data for a greater number of stressors. For certain impact categories, LCIA can use many of the guidelines, methodologies, and default parameters that have been developed for human health RA, in conjunction with sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to determine the level of detail necessary for various applications. LCIA can then identify “hot spots” that require the additional detail and level of certainty provided by RA. A comparison of the USEPA's Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other environmental Impacts (TRACI) and the USEPA's Risk-Screening Environmental Indicators (RSEI) will be explored.     

高寒草甸植物群落功能多样性对不同生长期干旱的响应机制

植物对干旱胁迫的响应表现为各功能性状的差异化表达。全球气候变化下,青藏高原地区降水格局发生改变,高寒草甸群落功能性状及功能多样性在不同生长期干旱事件下的响应机制对加深高寒草甸适应气候变化认知具有重要意义。以藏北高寒草甸为研究对象,设置截雨棚模拟生长季前期（ED）、中期（MD）和非生长季时期（ND）干旱事件,通过观测群落物种功能性状,分析高寒草甸群落功能多样性对不同生长期干旱的响应机制。结果表明：（1）叶片功能性状对干旱存在差异响应,表现为叶片小而厚且寿命长,同化速率降低,并受氮元素限制加剧;（2）生长季前期干旱对高寒草甸群落功能性状的影响最强,生长季中期干旱次之,非生长季干旱的影响最弱;（3）生长季干旱处理显著改变了群落的功能多样性,ED处理下功能分散度指数（FDiv）和功能分异度指数（FDis）显著降低（P<0.05）,而Rao二次熵指数（RaoQ）显著升高（P<0.05）,MD处理下功能均匀度指数（FEve）显著降低（P<0.05）;（4）相关性分析得出,群落功能性状与功能多样性对干旱的响应之间存在着联系。本研究发现高寒草甸植物功能性状与群落功能多样性对生长季前期和中期干旱存在差异化响应,指示着高寒草甸植物群落在响应不同时期干旱时可能采取不同的生存策略,即对生长季前期干旱采用耐旱策略、对生长季中期干旱采用避旱策略。探讨了高寒草甸植物群落功能多样性对不同生长时期干旱胁迫的响应机制,为预测未来季节性干旱事件对青藏高原高寒草甸植物功能性状、群落特征和功能多样性的影响提供科学依据。     

区域综合生态风险评价框架——以雄安新区为例

构建区域生态风险评价框架有助于清晰地识别、评估、模拟、预测与管理区域生态风险,进而为区域生态安全网络构建和生态安全格局保障提供支撑。雄安新区的建设,使该区域面临巨大的土地利用变化,对区域生态系统的结构和功能产生不可忽视的影响,洪涝和干旱灾害对雄安新区及其周边区域生态系统具有显著的威胁。以雄安新区为例,构建包含暴露-响应关系、人为源和自然源相结合的区域综合生态风险评价框架,分别对城市化和气候变化背景下的雄安新区土地利用变化、洪涝灾害、干旱灾害三类胁迫引起的区域生态风险进行了评价和预测,确定其生态风险空间分布特征及变化趋势。结果表明：(1)从时间序列上来看,由于气候变化导致洪涝、干旱等自然灾害的影响,加上雄安新区的土地利用变化,雄安新区的生态风险在2025年后有所上升,但有序的规划和良好的地类配置使得雄安新区起步区在2025年后生态风险程度下降;(2)从空间上看,雄安新区风险高值区主要集中在白洋淀区以西和以南,以及新区东北部部分区域。最后,从土地利用管理、洪涝和干旱灾害预防等角度提出了生态风险防控对策：(1)雄安新区应坚持对土地利用的合理规划和严格管理,切实防止土地的无序利用,密切关注景观...     

Mutuality and solidarity: assessing risks and sharing losses.

Mutuality is the principle of private, commercial insurance; individuals enter the pool for sharing losses, and pay according to the best estimate of the risk they bring with them. Solidarity is the sharing of losses with payment according to some other scheme; this is the principle of state social insurance; essential features of solidarity are comprehensiveness and compulsion. Private insurance is subject to the uberrima fides principle, or utmost good faith; each side declares all it knows about the risk. The Disability Discrimination Act requires insurers to justify disability discrimination on the basis of relevant information, acturial, statistical or medical, on which it is reasonable to rely. It could be very damaging to private insurance to abandon uberrima fides. However, although some genetic information is clearly useful to underwriters, other information may be so general as to be of little use. The way in which mortality rates are assessed is also explained.     

Genetic information and insurance: some ethical issues.

Life is risky, and insurance provides one of the best developed ways of controlling risks. By pooling, and so transferring risks, those who turn out to suffer antecedently uncertain harms can be assured in advance that they will be helped if those harms arise; they can then plan their lives and activities with confidence that they are less at the mercy of ill fortune. Both publicly organized and commercial insurance can organize the pooling of risk in ways that are beneficial for all concerned. They provide standard ways of securing fundamental ethical values such as solidarity and mutuality. Although policy holders do not know or contract with one another, each benefits from the contribution of others to a shared scheme for pooling and so controlling risk. Although there is a limit to the degree to which commercially-based insurance, where premiums depend on risk level, can go beyond mutuality towards solidarity, in practice it too often achieves a measure of solidarity by taking a broad brush approach to pooling risk. However, the ordinary practices of insurance, and in particular of commercial insurance, also raise ethical questions. These may be put in simple terms by contrasting the way in which an insurance market discriminates between different people, on the basis of characteristics that (supposedly) determine their risk level, and our frequent abhorrence of discrimination, in particular on the basis on religious, racial and gender characteristics. Are the discriminations on which insurance practice relies upon as standard acceptable or not? The increasing availability of genetic information, which testing (of individuals) and screening (of populations) may provide, could lend urgency to these questions. Genetic information may provide a way of obtaining more accurate assessment of individual risks to health and life. This information could be used to discriminate more finely between the risk levels of different individuals, and then to alter the availability and the costs of health, life and unemployment insurance to them. Since all of these forms of insurance bear very directly on the way most people live, it will matter to them how (if at all) insurers take account of genetic information. Will use of this information improve or damage the capacity of insurance to provide confidence in the face of uncertain harms, and help if they happen? Will it discriminate in acceptable or in unacceptable ways? Will it support or damage the sorts of mutuality and solidarity various sorts of insurance schemes have successfully institutionalized?     

A multi-step phosphorelay two-component system impacts on tolerance against dehydration stress in common wheat

Wheat is an important staple crop, and its productivity is severely constrained by drought stress (DS). An understanding of the molecular basis of drought tolerance is necessary for genetic improvement of wheat for tolerance to DS. The two-component system (TCS) serves as a common sensor-regulator coupling mechanism implicated in the regulation of diverse biological processes (including response to DS) not only in prokaryotes, but also in higher plants. In the latter, TCS generally consists of two signalling elements, a histidine kinase (HK) and a response regulator (RR) associated with an intermediate element called histidine phosphotransferase (HPT). Keeping in view the possible utility of TCS in developing water use efficient (WUE) wheat cultivars, we identified and characterized 62 wheat genes encoding TCS elements in a silico study; these included 7 HKs, 45 RRs along with 10 HPTs. Twelve of the 62 genes showed relatively higher alterations in the expression under drought. The quantitative RT-PCR (qRT-PCR)-based expression analysis of these 12 TCS genes was carried out in wheat seedlings of a drought sensitive (HD2967) and a tolerant (Dharwar Dry) cultivar subjected to either dehydration stress or cytokinin treatment. The expression of these 12 genes under dehydration stress differed in sensitive and tolerant genotypes, even though for individual genes, both showed either up-regulation or down-regulation. In response to the treatment of cytokinin, the expression of type-A RR genes was higher in the tolerant genotype, relative to that in the sensitive genotype, the situation being reverse for the type-B RRs. These results have been discussed in the context of the role of TCS elements in drought tolerance in wheat.     

四川盆区直播与移栽水稻旱灾风险比较

定量评价和比较四川盆区移栽水稻与直播水稻各发育阶段及全生育期干旱灾害风险,能为各区域水稻防旱减灾生产技术转型和推广提供科学依据.基于自然灾害风险理论和水稻干旱灾害风险形成机理,利用四川盆区1961—2017年的气象资料、水稻生产观测资料、农业统计资料和基础地理信息,对移栽和直播水稻全生育期和播种-拔节、拔节-孕穗、孕穗-齐穗、齐穗-成熟4个发育阶段干旱危险性进行评价和比较,对四川盆区水稻干旱灾害承灾体易损性、成灾环境敏感性和防灾减灾能力进行分析,从而构建四川盆区水稻干旱风险评价模型,并对评价结果进行区划.结果表明: 四川盆区水稻旱灾风险整体较高,两种播栽方式下均为中等风险区分布面积最广;两种播栽方式下干旱风险空间分布特征总体一致,表现为中东部高、西南部低,从东向西、从中部向周围递减的趋势.两种播栽方式下,水稻干旱危险性差异最大的时期出现在播种-拔节阶段,直播水稻在播种-拔节阶段的干旱危险性明显低于移栽水稻,且分布范围也较移栽水稻小;直播水稻干旱灾害的轻-低风险区分布较移栽水稻广,高风险区分布面积较移栽水稻略小.     

1961-2017年环渤海地区气象干旱时空特征及致灾危险性评估

基于1961-2017年环渤海地区60个地面气象站点的逐日气温和降水资料,计算了各站点逐日气象干旱综合指数（Meteorological drought Composite Index,MCI）,统计近57年各站点的气象干旱过程,并进一步分析了环渤海地区各季节气象干旱的时空变化特征及致灾危险性等级分布。结果表明：（1）环渤海地区春季干旱覆盖范围和持续日数呈下降趋势,但干旱强度有所增加,夏、秋两季干旱覆盖范围和持续日数呈上升趋势,而干旱强度有所减少,冬季干旱覆盖范围和干旱强度均呈增加状态,干旱持续日数有所下降。（2）春季干旱覆盖范围、干旱持续日数、干旱强度以及干旱发生频率均居四季之首,干旱状况最严重,夏、秋季次之,冬季最轻。（3）各季节干旱强度和干旱发生频率的高值区主要分布在辽宁西北部、河北中南部以及山东大部分地区,低值区主要位于辽宁东部地区。（4）各季节干旱致灾危险性等级总体呈西高东低、南高北低的分布特征,其中,河北中南部气象干旱的致灾危险性较高,辽宁东部的较低;春旱致灾危险性总体较高,夏、秋季次之,冬季最低。     

Genetic diversity and disease susceptibility.

The range of genetic diversity within human populations is enormous. Genetic susceptibility to common chronic disease is a significant part of this genetic diversity, which also includes a variety of rare clear-cut inherited diseases. Modern DNA-based genomic analysis can now routinely lead to the identification of genes involved in disease susceptibility, provides the basis for genetic counselling in affected families, and more widely for a genetically targeted approach to disease prevention. This naturally raises problems concerning the use of information on an individual''s decisions, but for employment, and health and life insurance.     

割手密醛脱氢酶ScALDH基因的克隆与表达分析

该研究从甘蔗细茎野生种(割手密Saccharum spontaneum)中克隆抗旱相关的基因Sc ALDH,并分析其在干旱处理条件下的表达情况和序列特征。利用RT-PCR技术克隆甘蔗的ALDH基因片段,并对其核苷酸和氨基酸序列进行分析。使用NCBI Blastx、ORF finder、Mega、NCBI Conserved Domain Search等程序对其分别进行不同物种氨基酸比较、开放阅读框(ORF)寻找、进化树及保守序列分析,并用Real Time-PCR分析所克隆基因在干旱胁迫前后的表达差异。结果表明:克隆出甘蔗的ALDH基因片段,总长度为1996bp,其中蛋白质编码区(CDS)全长1524bp,编码508个氨基酸;与其它物种ALDH类蛋白氨基酸序列有很高的同源性,有ALDH家族的保守序列,并含有完整的开放阅读框,系统进化树分析显示与玉米的蛋白质亲缘关系最近;Real timePCR数据表明,在干旱胁迫下,随着干旱时间的延长,该基因的表达量呈持续积累的表达模式。总体上来说,该基因对干旱胁迫显著表达。利用RT-PCR技术克隆的甘蔗ALDH基因,属于ALDH蛋白家族的一员,具有其典型的功能域,该基因在干旱胁迫过程中参与抗旱作用。该研究结果为野生种资源开发、优良抗旱亲本选择和培育抗旱性强甘蔗品种提供了参考依据。     

Predator‐mediated effects of severe drought associated with poor reproductive success of a seabird in a cross‐ecosystem cascade

Despite the profound impacts of drought on terrestrial productivity in coastal arid ecosystems, only a few studies have addressed how drought can influence ecological cascades across ecosystem boundaries. In this study, we examine the consequences of rainfall pulses and drought that subsequently impact the breeding success of a threatened nocturnal seabird, the Scripps's Murrelet (Synthliboramphus scrippsi). On an island off the coast of southern California, the main cause of reduced nest success for one of their largest breeding colonies is egg predation by an endemic deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus elusus). Mice on the island have an opportunistic diet of primarily terrestrial sources, but drastic declines in terrestrial productivity from drought might be expected to increase their reliance on marine resources, including murrelet eggs. We compiled data on terrestrial and marine productivity between 1983 and 2013 to determine how conditions in these ecosystems influence murrelet nest success. We found that the severity of drought had the strongest negative impact on murrelet nest success. We calculated that the reduction in fecundity during drought years due to increased egg predation by mice was substantial enough to produce a declining population growth rate. Nest success was much higher under normal or high rainfall conditions, depending on whether oceanic conditions were favorable to murrelets. Therefore, the more frequent and severe drought that is projected for this region could lead to an increased risk of murrelet population decline on this island. Our study highlights the need for understanding how species interactions will change through the effects of increasing drought and altered rainfall regimes under global change.     

基于SPEI-PM指数的黄淮海平原干旱特征分析

利用黄淮海平原45个气象站点1961—2014年月值气象数据,基于Penman-Monteith蒸散模型计算了标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),对黄淮海平原近54年干旱变化趋势、发生频率和持续性特征进行了分析,并探讨了SPEI指数与河南、河北和山东省农业干旱面积的关系,结果表明:(1)改用Penman-Monteith蒸散公式后,SPEI干旱指数在黄淮海平原呈整体上升趋势,即趋于湿润;(2)近54年干旱演变具有明显的年代际差异,20世纪60年代干旱频率最高,而21世纪初(2000—2014)干旱频率整体偏低;(3)黄淮海平原干旱发生具有持续性的特点,20世纪60年代遭受的持续性干旱最为严重,平均干旱持续时长约2.6个月,21世纪初下降到1.5个月;(4)河南、河北和山东省的农业干旱面积年际变化表明,干旱面积呈减少趋势,2000年以后年均受灾面积、成灾面积和绝收面积比2000年之前分别下降了58.0%、44.4%和49.1%;(5)农业干旱面积与SPEI具有中等以上的相关强度,其中对山东省受灾、成灾和绝收面积相关系数r达到-0.7以上,表明基于Penman-Monteith蒸散模型的SPEI指数在黄淮海平原具有良好的适用性。     

Differential Gene Expression Reveals Candidate Genes for Drought Stress Response in Abies alba (Pinaceae)

Increasing drought periods as a result of global climate change pose a threat to many tree species by possibly outpacing their adaptive capabilities. Revealing the genetic basis of drought stress response is therefore implemental for future conservation strategies and risk assessment. Access to informative genomic regions is however challenging, especially for conifers, partially due to their large genomes, which puts constraints on the feasibility of whole genome scans. Candidate genes offer a valuable tool to reduce the complexity of the analysis and the amount of sequencing work and costs. For this study we combined an improved drought stress phenotyping of needles via a novel terahertz water monitoring technique with Massive Analysis of cDNA Ends to identify candidate genes for drought stress response in European silver fir (Abies alba Mill.). A pooled cDNA library was constructed from the cotyledons of six drought stressed and six well-watered silver fir seedlings, respectively. Differential expression analyses of these libraries revealed 296 candidate genes for drought stress response in silver fir (247 up- and 49 down-regulated) of which a subset was validated by RT-qPCR of the twelve individual cotyledons. A majority of these genes code for currently uncharacterized proteins and hint on new genomic resources to be explored in conifers. Furthermore, we could show that some traditional reference genes from model plant species (GAPDH and eIF4A2) are not suitable for differential analysis and we propose a new reference gene, TPC1, for drought stress expression profiling in needles of conifer seedlings.