Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Sero-Prevalence Surveys in Multiple Countries

Background

Estimates of dengue transmission intensity remain ambiguous. Since the majority of infections are asymptomatic, surveillance systems substantially underestimate true rates of infection. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is key for assessing both the burden of disease from dengue and the likely impact of interventions.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The force of infection (λ) and corresponding basic reproduction numbers (R₀) for dengue were estimated from non-serotype (IgG) and serotype-specific (PRNT) age-stratified seroprevalence surveys identified from the literature. The majority of R₀ estimates ranged from 1–4. Assuming that two heterologous infections result in complete immunity produced up to two-fold higher estimates of R₀ than when tertiary and quaternary infections were included. λ estimated from IgG data were comparable to the sum of serotype-specific forces of infection derived from PRNT data, particularly when inter-serotype interactions were allowed for.

Conclusions/Significance

Our analysis highlights the highly heterogeneous nature of dengue transmission. How underlying assumptions about serotype interactions and immunity affect the relationship between the force of infection and R₀ will have implications for control planning. While PRNT data provides the maximum information, our study shows that even the much cheaper ELISA-based assays would provide comparable baseline estimates of overall transmission intensity which will be an important consideration in resource-constrained settings.     

Meteorologically Driven Simulations of Dengue Epidemics in San Juan,PR

Meteorological factors influence dengue virus ecology by modulating vector mosquito population dynamics, viral replication, and transmission. Dynamic modeling techniques can be used to examine how interactions among meteorological variables, vectors and the dengue virus influence transmission. We developed a dengue fever simulation model by coupling a dynamic simulation model for Aedes aegypti, the primary mosquito vector for dengue, with a basic epidemiological Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we simulated dengue transmission during the period of 2010–2013 in San Juan, PR, where dengue fever is endemic. The results of 9600 simulations using varied model parameters were evaluated by statistical comparison (r²) with surveillance data of dengue cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. To identify the most influential parameters associated with dengue virus transmission for each period the top 1% of best-fit model simulations were retained and compared. Using the top simulations, dengue cases were simulated well for 2010 (r² = 0.90, p = 0.03), 2011 (r² = 0.83, p = 0.05), and 2012 (r² = 0.94, p = 0.01); however, simulations were weaker for 2013 (r² = 0.25, p = 0.25) and the entire four-year period (r² = 0.44, p = 0.002). Analysis of parameter values from retained simulations revealed that rain dependent container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the wetter 2010 and 2011 years, while human managed (i.e. manually filled) container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the drier 2012 and 2013 years. The simulations further indicate that rainfall strongly modulates the timing of dengue (e.g., epidemics occurred earlier during rainy years) while temperature modulates the annual number of dengue fever cases. Our results suggest that meteorological factors have a time-variable influence on dengue transmission relative to other important environmental and human factors.     

Modelling the Use of Wolbachia to Control Dengue Fever Transmission

Experiments and field trials have shown that the intracellular bacterium Wolbachia may be introduced into populations of the mosquito Aedes aegypti, the primary vector for dengue fever. In the absence of Wolbachia, a mosquito acquiring the dengue virus from an infected human enters an exposed (infected but not infectious) period before becoming infectious itself. A Wolbachia-infected mosquito that acquires dengue (i) may have a reduced lifespan, so that it is less likely to survive the exposed period and become infectious, and (ii) may have a reduced ability to transmit dengue, even if it has survived the exposed period. Wolbachia introduction has therefore been suggested as a potential dengue control measure. We set up a mathematical model for the system to investigate this suggestion and to evaluate the desirable properties of the Wolbachia strain to be introduced. We show that Wolbachia has excellent potential for dengue control in areas where R ₀ is not too large. However, if R ₀ is large, Wolbachia strains that reduce but do not eliminate dengue transmission have little effect on endemic steady states or epidemic sizes. Unless control measures to reduce R ₀ by reducing mosquito populations are also put in place, it may be worth the extra effort in such cases to introduce Wolbachia strains that eliminate dengue transmission completely.     

Practical considerations for measuring the effective reproductive number,Rt

Estimation of the effective reproductive number R_t is important for detecting changes in disease transmission over time. During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, policy makers and public health officials are using R_t to assess the effectiveness of interventions and to inform policy. However, estimation of R_t from available data presents several challenges, with critical implications for the interpretation of the course of the pandemic. The purpose of this document is to summarize these challenges, illustrate them with examples from synthetic data, and, where possible, make recommendations. For near real-time estimation of R_t, we recommend the approach of Cori and colleagues, which uses data from before time t and empirical estimates of the distribution of time between infections. Methods that require data from after time t, such as Wallinga and Teunis, are conceptually and methodologically less suited for near real-time estimation, but may be appropriate for retrospective analyses of how individuals infected at different time points contributed to the spread. We advise caution when using methods derived from the approach of Bettencourt and Ribeiro, as the resulting R_t estimates may be biased if the underlying structural assumptions are not met. Two key challenges common to all approaches are accurate specification of the generation interval and reconstruction of the time series of new infections from observations occurring long after the moment of transmission. Naive approaches for dealing with observation delays, such as subtracting delays sampled from a distribution, can introduce bias. We provide suggestions for how to mitigate this and other technical challenges and highlight open problems in R_t estimation.     

A [P]NAD-based method to identify and quantitate long residence time enoyl-acyl carrier protein reductase inhibitors

The classical methods for quantifying drug–target residence time (t_R) use loss or regain of enzyme activity in progress curve kinetic assays. However, such methods become imprecise at very long residence times, mitigating the use of alternative strategies. Using the NAD(P)H-dependent FabI enoyl-acyl carrier protein (enoyl-ACP) reductase as a model system, we developed a Penefsky column-based method for direct measurement of t_R, where the off-rate of the drug was determined with radiolabeled [adenylate-³²P]NAD(P⁺) cofactor. In total, 23 FabI inhibitors were analyzed, and a mathematical model was used to estimate limits to the t_R values of each inhibitor based on percentage drug–target complex recovery following gel filtration. In general, this method showed good agreement with the classical steady-state kinetic methods for compounds with t_R values of 10 to 100 min. In addition, we were able to identify seven long t_R inhibitors (100–1500 min) and to accurately determine their t_R values. The method was then used to measure t_R as a function of temperature, an analysis not previously possible using the standard kinetic approach due to decreased NAD(P)H stability at elevated temperatures. In general, a 4-fold difference in t_R was observed when the temperature was increased from 25 to 37 °C.     

Changes in needle nitrogen partitioning and photosynthesis during 80 years of tree ontogeny in Picea abies

Needle nitrogen partitioning and photosynthesis of Norway spruce were studied in a forest chronosequence in Järvselja Experimental Forest, Estonia. Current- and previous-year shoots were sampled from upper and lower canopy positions in four stands, ranging in age from 13 to 82 years. A/c _i curves were determined to obtain maximum carboxylation rate (V _cmax) and maximum rate of electron transport (J _max), whereas needle nitrogen partitioning into carboxylation (P _R), bioenergetics associated with electron transport (P _B) and thylakoid light harvesting components (P _L) was calculated from the values of V _cmax, J _max and leaf chlorophyll concentration. The greatest changes in studied needle characteristics took place between tree ages of 13 and 26 years, and this pattern was independent of needle age and canopy position. Needle mass per projected area (LMA) was lowest in the 13-year-old stand and mass-based nitrogen concentration (N^M) was generally highest in that stand. The values of LMA were significantly higher and those of N^M lower in the 26-year-old stand. Mass-based V _cmax and J _max were highest in the 13-year-old stand. Area-based photosynthetic capacity was independent of tree age. The proportion of photosynthetic nitrogen (P _R, P _B and P _L) was highest and that of non-photosynthetic nitrogen lowest in the 13-year-old stand. Current-year needles had lower LMA and P _L, but higher photosynthetic capacity compared to 1-year-old foliage. Needles from lower canopy positions exhibited lower LMA, area-based nitrogen concentration and photosynthetic capacity than needles from upper canopy. The period of substantial reductions in needle photosynthetic capacity and changes in nitrogen partitioning coincides with the onset of reproductive phase during tree ontogeny.     

The Interactive Roles of Aedes aegypti Super-Production and Human Density in Dengue Transmission

Background

A. aegypti production and human density may vary considerably in dengue endemic areas. Understanding how interactions between these factors influence the risk of transmission could improve the effectiveness of the allocation of vector control resources. To evaluate the combined impacts of variation in A. aegypti production and human density we integrated field data with simulation modeling.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using data from seven censuses of A. aegypti pupae (2007–2009) and from demographic surveys, we developed an agent-based transmission model of the dengue transmission cycle across houses in 16 dengue-endemic urban ‘patches’ (1–3 city blocks each) of Armenia, Colombia. Our field data showed that 92% of pupae concentrated in only 5% of houses, defined as super-producers. Average secondary infections (R₀) depended on infrequent, but highly explosive transmission events. These super-spreading events occurred almost exclusively when the introduced infectious person infected mosquitoes that were produced in super-productive containers. Increased human density favored R₀, and when the likelihood of human introduction of virus was incorporated into risk, a strong interaction arose between vector production and human density. Simulated intervention of super-productive containers was substantially more effective in reducing dengue risk at higher human densities.

Significance/Conclusions

These results show significant interactions between human population density and the natural regulatory pattern of A. aegypti in the dynamics of dengue transmission. The large epidemiological significance of super-productive containers suggests that they have the potential to influence dengue viral adaptation to mosquitoes. Human population density plays a major role in dengue transmission, due to its potential impact on human-A. aegypti contact, both within a person''s home and when visiting others. The large variation in population density within typical dengue endemic cities suggests that it should be a major consideration in dengue control policy.     

Understanding Spatio-Temporal Variability in the Reproduction Ratio of the Bluetongue (BTV-1) Epidemic in Southern Spain (Andalusia) in 2007 Using Epidemic Trees

Andalusia (Southern Spain) is considered one of the main routes of introduction of bluetongue virus (BTV) into Europe, evidenced by a devastating epidemic caused by BTV-1 in 2007. Understanding the pattern and the drivers of BTV-1 spread in Andalusia is critical for effective detection and control of future epidemics. A long-standing metric for quantifying the behaviour of infectious diseases is the case-reproduction ratio (R_t), defined as the average number of secondary cases arising from a single infected case at time t (for t>0). Here we apply a method using epidemic trees to estimate the between-herd case reproduction ratio directly from epidemic data allowing the spatial and temporal variability in transmission to be described. We then relate this variability to predictors describing the hosts, vectors and the environment to better understand why the epidemic spread more quickly in some regions or periods. The R_t value for the BTV-1 epidemic in Andalusia peaked in July at 4.6, at the start of the epidemic, then decreased to 2.2 by August, dropped below 1 by September (0.8), and by October it had decreased to 0.02. BTV spread was the consequence of both local transmission within established disease foci and BTV expansion to distant new areas (i.e. new foci), which resulted in a high variability in BTV transmission, not only among different areas, but particularly through time, which suggests that general control measures applied at broad spatial scales are unlikely to be effective. This high variability through time was probably due to the impact of temperature on BTV transmission, as evidenced by a reduction in the value of R_t by 0.0041 for every unit increase (day) in the extrinsic incubation period (EIP), which is itself directly dependent on temperature. Moreover, within the range of values at which BTV-1 transmission occurred in Andalusia (20.6°C to 29.5°C) there was a positive correlation between temperature and R_t values, although the relationship was not linear, probably as a result of the complex relationship between temperature and the different parameters affecting BTV transmission. R_t values for BTV-1 in Andalusia fell below the threshold of 1 when temperatures dropped below 21°C, a much higher threshold than that reported in other BTV outbreaks, such as the BTV-8 epidemic in Northern Europe. This divergence may be explained by differences in the adaptation to temperature of the main vectors of the BTV-1 epidemic in Andalusia (Culicoides imicola) compared those of the BTV-8 epidemic in Northern Europe (Culicoides obsoletus). Importantly, we found that BTV transmission (R_t value) increased significantly in areas with higher densities of sheep. Our analysis also established that control of BTV-1 in Andalusia was complicated by the simultaneous establishment of several distant foci at the start of the epidemic, which may have been caused by several independent introductions of infected vectors from the North of Africa. We discuss the implications of these findings for BTV surveillance and control in this region of Europe.     

Ovitrap surveillance of dengue vector mosquitoes in Bandung City,West Java Province,Indonesia

Larval surveillance is the central approach for monitoring dengue vector populations in Indonesia. However, traditional larval indices are ineffective for measuring mosquito population dynamics and predicting the dengue transmission risk. We conducted a 14-month ovitrap surveillance. Eggs and immature mosquitoes were collected on a weekly basis from an urban village of Bandung, namely Sekejati. Ovitrap-related indices, namely positive house index (PHI), ovitrap index (OI), and ovitrap density index (ODI), were generated and correlated with environmental variables, housing type (terraced or high-density housing), ovitrap placement location (indoor or outdoor; household or public place), and local dengue cases. Our results demonstrated that Aedes aegypti was significantly predominant compared with Aedes albopictus at each housing type and ovitrap placement location. Ovitrap placement locations and rainfall were the major factors contributing to variations in PHI, OI, and ODI, whereas the influences of housing type and temperature were subtle. Indoor site values were significantly positively correlated to outdoor sites’ values for both OI and ODI. OI and ODI values from households were best predicted with those from public places at 1- and 0-week lags, respectively. Weekly rainfall values at 4- and 3-week lags were the best predictors of OI and ODI for households and public places, respectively. Monthly mean PHI, OI, and ODI were significantly associated with local dengue cases. In conclusion, ovitrap may be an effective tool for monitoring the population dynamics of Aedes mosquitoes, predicting dengue outbreaks, and serving as an early indicator to initiate environmental clean-up. Ovitrap surveillance is easy for surveyors if they are tasked with a certain number of ovitraps at a designated area, unlike the existing larval surveillance methodology, which entails identifying potential breeding sites largely at the surveyors’ discretion. Ovitrap surveillance may reduce the influence of individual effort in larval surveillance that likely causes inconsistency in results.     

Monomeric molybdenum(V) complexes. 4. The structure of tetraphenylarsonium oxodichloro(N-2-oxophenylsalicylideniminato)molybdate(V), [Ph4As] [MoOCl2(SalphO)]

The structure of [Ph₄As] [MoOCl₂(SalphO)], where SalphO is N-2-oxophenylsalicylideniminate dianion, has been determined by X-ray crystallography. The complex crystallizes in the monoclinic space group P2₁/n with a = 11.829(2), b = 16.149(3), c = 17.410(3) Å, β = 97.485(15)° and Z = 4. The calculated and observed densities and 1.566 and 1.573(10) g cm^?3, respectively. Block-diagonal least-squares refinement of the structure using 4722 independent reflections with I ? 3σ(I) converged at R = 0.0345 and R_w = 0.0484. The crystal contains [Ph₄As]⁺ cations and [MoOCl₂(SalphO)]^? anions. The Mo atom in the anion is in a distorted octahedral coordination environment. A planar terdentate Schiff base ligand occupies meridional positions with the N atom trans to the terminal oxo group (O_t). Two Cl atoms are cis to the O_t atom. The Mo atom is displaced by 0.33 Å from the equatorial plane toward the O_t atom. The MoO_t distance is 1.673(3) Å. The MoN bond trans to the O_t atom is 2.298(4) Å. The two MoCl bond lengths are 2.371(1) and 2.408(1) Å. The difference of 0.037 Å is significant (30 σ). Preparations of the title complex and the related complexes are also described.     

Barium inhibition of sodium ion transport in toad bladder

The effect of Ba²⁺ on Na⁺ transport and electrical characteristics of toad bladder was determined from change produced in short circuit current (I_sc, epithelial, apical and basal-lateral potentials (ψ_t, ψ_a, ψ_b), epithelial and membrane resistances (R_t, R_a, R_b) and shunt resistance (R_s). Mucosal Ba²⁺ had no effect. Serosal Ba²⁺ reduced I_sc, ψ_t, ψ_a, and ψ_b, but had no effect on R_t, R_a, R_b and R_s. Minimal effective Ba²⁺ concentration was 5 · 10^?5 M. The phenomenon was reversed by Ba²⁺ removal, but not by 86 mM serosal K⁺. Ba²⁺ inhibition of I_sc did not impair the response to vasopressin which was quantitatively the same as controls. ψ_a with Ba²⁺ equalled ψ_b. After Ba²⁺ inhibition, ouabain produced no further decrease in ψ_t and I_sc. Ba²⁺ exposure after ouabain did not decrease ψ_t and I_sc. The results suggest that Ba²⁺ inhibits the basal-lateral electrogenic Na⁺ pump.     

Bounds on the total population for species governed by reaction-diffusion equations in arbitrary two-dimensional regions

Analysis based on the integration of differential inequalities is employed to derive upper and lower bounds on the total populationN(t) = ∫ _R θ(x ₁,x ₂,t) dx ₁ dx ₂ of a biological species with an area-density distribution function θ=θ(x ₁,x ₂,t) (≥0) governed by a reaction-diffusion equation of the form ∂θ/∂t =D∇²θ +fθ −gθ ⁿ⁺¹ whereD (>0),n (>0),f andg are constant parameters, θ=0 at all points on the boundary ∂R of an (arbitrary) two-dimensional regionR, and the initial distribution (θ(_{x 1},x ₂, 0) is such thatN(0) is finite. Forg≥0 withR the entire two-dimensional Euclidean space, a lower bound onN(t) is obtained, showing in particular thatN(∞) is bounded below by a finite positive quantity forf≥0 andn>1. An upper bound onN(t) is obtained for arbitrary bounded or unbounded)R withn=1,f andg negative, and ∫ _R θ(x ₁,x ₂, 0)² dx ₁ dx ₂ sufficiently small in magnitude, implying that the population goes to extinction with increasing values of the time,N(∞)=0. Forg≥0 andR of finite area, the analysis yields upper bounds onN(t), predicting eventual extinction of the population if eitherf≤0 or if the area ofR is less than a certain grouping of the parameters in cases for whichf is positive. These results are directly applicable to biological species with distributions satisfying the Fisher equation in two spatial dimensions and to species governed by certain specialized population models.     

The effect of root architecture on the shearing resistance of root-permeated soils

This paper aims to investigate the effect of the root architecture on the shear strength increment provided by plant roots in the soil. In situ shear tests were conducted for this purpose. Five plant species – Hibiscus tiliaceus L. (Linden hibiscus), Mallotus japonicus (Thunb.) Muell.-Arg. (Japanese Mallotus), Sapium sebiferum (L.) Roxb. (Chinese tallow tree), Casuarina equisetifolia L. (ironwood), and Leucaena leucocephala (Lam.) (white popinac) – were used in this study. Tensile tests on roots of various diameters and surveys on the root system structure were carried out for each of the plant species tested. The shear strength increments (ΔS) provided by the roots of Linden hibiscus, Japanese Mallotus, Chinese tallow tree, ironwood, and white popinac were 0.34t_R, 0.462t_R, 0.688t_R, 0.3t_R, and 0.87t_R, respectively, when t_R was estimated on the basis of the tensile root strength crossing through the shear plane. The shear strength increment provided by plant roots with conspicuous oblique and vertical roots was greater than that of root structures in which lateral roots were dominant. In comparison with other types of root architecture, the R-type root architecture was found to be the most effective root system against shear failure in the soil. Its shear strength increment was slightly greater than that with the V-type root architecture, followed by the VH-type root architecture. The shear strength increment provided by plants with the H-type root architecture was less effective than that contributed by plant species with other types of root architecture.     

The potential of the satellite derived green chlorophyll index for estimating midday light use efficiency in maize, coniferous forest and grassland

Light use efficiency (LUE) is an important variable in carbon cycle and climate change research. We present an investigation of remotely estimating midday LUE using the green chlorophyll index (CI_green) derived from the cloud-free Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images in maize, coniferous forest and grassland. Similar temporal patterns are observed in both canopy chlorophyll content and midday LUE which indicates that the chlorophyll content in the maize canopy servers as a proxy of midday LUE (R² = 0.736, p < 0.001). Therefore, the CI_green, tested as a good indicator of canopy chlorophyll content (R² = 0.840, p < 0.001), has been demonstrated to be a reliable candidate in providing reasonable estimates of midday LUE with determination coefficient R² equals to 0.820 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.002 mol CO₂ per mol incident photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD). Further validation of the prediction model derived from the maize site demonstrates that the CI_green has potential to be applied in the coniferous forest and grassland ecosystems with RMSE of 0.005 and 0.004 mol CO₂ mol⁻¹ PPFD, respectively. A comparison analysis between different vegetation types is included and these results could be helpful in the development of future LUE and terrestrial models.     

Synthesis and derivatization of halflanthanidocene aryl(alk)oxide complexes

The reaction of halflanthanidocene aryloxides Cp^R′Ln(OAr^tBu,R)₂ (Ln = Y, La, Lu; Cp^R′ = C₅Me₅, C₄Me₄H; R = H, Me) and halflanthanidocene alkoxides [(C₅Me₅)Ln(OCH₂CMe₃)₂]₂ (Ln = Y, Lu) with trimethylaluminum (TMA) was investigated. Monomeric Cp^R′Ln(OAr^tBu,R)₂, derived from the ortho-tBu-substituted OC₆H₂tBu₂-2,6-R-4 (R = H, Me) ligands, form mono(tetramethylaluminate) complexes Cp^R′Ln(OAr^tBu,R)(AlMe₄) for the smaller lanthanide metal centers yttrium and lutetium. Such an [aryloxide] → [aluminate] ligand exchange was not observed at the larger lanthanum metal center. The mobility of the tetramethylaluminate ligands of complexes Cp^R′Ln(OAr^tBu,R)(AlMe₄) (Ln = Y, Lu) was examined by variable-temperature (VT) ¹H NMR spectroscopy, revealing two signals for bridging and terminal methyl groups at lower temperatures. The treatment of complexes Cp^R′Ln(OAr^tBu,R)(AlMe₄) with donor solvent d₈-THF gave Cp^R′Ln(OAr^tBu,R)(Me)(d₈-THF)₂ (Ln = Y, Lu) with terminal methyl groups, according to a donor-induced aluminate cleavage reaction. Dimeric [(C₅Me₅)Ln(OCH₂CMe₃)₂]₂ (Ln = Y, Lu) was synthesized from (C₅Me₅)Ln(NiPr₂)₂(THF) and reacted with two equivalents of TMA per Ln center to yield monomeric bis(TMA) adduct complexes (C₅Me₅)Ln(OCH₂CMe₃)₂(AlMe₃)₂(Ln = Y, Lu). VT NMR spectroscopic studies confirmed a high mobility of the Ln(μ-OCH₂CMe₃)(μ-Me)AlMe₂ moieties at an ambient temperature. Both bis(TMA) adduct complexes were characterized by X-ray structure analysis.     

Spectral Characteristics of Near-Infrared Surface Plasmon Resonance

Intrinsic properties of surface plasmons (SPs) excited with Kretschmann configuration were analyzed as a function of wavelength, including the propagation length, the penetration depth, the Goos–Hänchen (GH) shift, and the field enhancement. The calculated results indicate that there exists a critical thickness (t _cr) of the gold layer and that the maximum GH shift occurring exactly at the SP resonance wavelength (λ _R) rapidly varies from positive to negative with changing of the gold layer thickness from t?<?t _cr to t?>?t _cr. The maximum field enhancement happens not at λ _R but at a wavelength smaller than λ _R due to the phase retardation between the transmitted and reflected light. Simulations also reveal that a broadband collimated near-infrared beam can simultaneously excite two SPs with different responses to a refractive index (RI) change: the shorter-wavelength SP able to make a small redshift and the longer-wavelength SP capable of yielding a large blueshift. Only the shorter-wavelength SP was experimentally observed and its RI sensitivity was measured to increase from 3,539 nm/RIU at λ _R?=?707.6 nm to 57,143 nm/RIU at λ _R?=?1,398 nm. The SP at λ _R?=?1,013 nm moved to λ _R?=?1,029 nm in response to the saturation adsorption of bovine serum albumin, and the corresponding surface coverage was determined to be Γ?=?1.565 ng/mm² based on a quasilinear dependence of Γ on the resonance wavelength shift (?λ _R) deduced theoretically. Butyrylcholinesterase adsorption from a dilute solution of 10 nM protein in phosphate buffer solution leads to a redshift of ?λ _R?=?10 nm, corresponding to Γ?≈?0.97 ng/mm².     

Growth, mortality and stock assessment of kelee shad, Hilsa kelee (Fam: Clupeidae) in the coastal waters of Pakistan

Growth of kelee shad, Hilsa kelee, in the coastal waters of Pakistan was estimated from the lengthfrequency samples. The von Bertalanffy growth equation was L _t = 23.10 (1 ? exp (?0.94(t + 0.18))). Estimated parameters of total mortality (Z), natural mortality (M) and fishing mortality (F) were 2.08 year^?1, 1.78 year^?1, and 0.30 year^?1 respectively. The length-at-first capture was Lc = 10.88 cm. Biomass per recruitment (B/R) and yield per recruitment (Y′/R) were 0.87 and 0.031 respectively. The annual exploitation rate was U = 0.12. The exploitation ratio for maximum yield per recruit E _max = 0.73 and fishing mortality for maximum yield per recruit F _max = 1.52; biological reference point F _opt = 0.89 year^?1 and F _limit = 1.18 year^?1. Present estimations showed that the natural mortality was higher than fishing mortality in Hilsa kelee, indicating that the state of the stock is sustainable and the fishery of kelee shad should not be increased beyond current levels in the coastal waters of Pakistan.     

Climate variability and Aedes vector indices in the southern Philippines: An empirical analysis

BackgroundVector surveillance is an essential public health tool to aid in the prediction and prevention of mosquito borne diseases. This study compared spatial and temporal trends of vector surveillance indices for Aedes vectors in the southern Philippines, and assessed potential links between vector indices and climate factors.MethodsWe analysed routinely collected larval and pupal surveillance data from residential areas of 14 cities and 51 municipalities during 2013–2018 (House, Container, Breteau and Pupal Indices), and used linear regression to explore potential relationships between vector indices and climate variables (minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation).ResultsWe found substantial spatial and temporal variation in monthly Aedes vector indices between cities during the study period, and no seasonal trend apparent. The House (HI), Container (CI) and Breteau (BI) Indices remained at comparable levels across most surveys (mean HI = 15, mean CI = 16, mean BI = 24), while the Pupal Productivity Index (PPI) was relatively lower in most months (usually below 5) except for two main peak periods (mean = 49 overall). A small proportion of locations recorded high values across all entomological indices in multiple surveys. Each of the vector indices were significantly correlated with one or more climate variables when matched to data from the same month or the previous 1 or 2 months, although the effect sizes were small. Significant associations were identified between minimum temperature and HI, CI and BI in the same month (R² = 0.038, p = 0.007; R² = 0.029, p = 0.018; and R² = 0.034, p = 0.011, respectively), maximum temperature and PPI with a 2-month lag (R² = 0.031, p = 0.032), and precipitation and HI in the same month (R² = 0.023, p = 0.04).ConclusionsOur findings indicated that larval and pupal surveillance indices were highly variable, were regularly above the threshold for triggering vector control responses, and that vector indices based on household surveys were weakly yet significantly correlated with city-level climate variables. We suggest that more detailed spatial and temporal analyses of entomological, climate, socio-environmental and Aedes-borne disease incidence data are necessary to ascertain the most effective use of entomological indices in guiding vector control responses, and reduction of human disease risk.     

Rates of apparent photosynthesis,respiration and dry matter accumulation in maize canopies

The rates of canopy apparent photosynthesis (P_C) and canopy respiration (R_c) were studied during vegetation season in two erectophile and two planophile hybrids of maize (Zea mays L.) grown at two canopy densities [7.5 plants m^-2 (HD) and 4.5 plants m^-2 (LD)]. Large differences in P_C, R_c, R_C/P_C, leaf area index (LAI), dry matter accumulation and grain yield were found among hybrids and plant densities. Variations in P_C and R_C were associated mainly with changes in LAI. There was also found change in P_C per unit LAI with time. The average R_C/P_C was 28.9 % for all treatments throughout the vegetation season. P_C and R_C per unit dry matter were higher in LD than in HD and decreased throughout the measurement period. The HD stand had higher P_C and yield in hybrids with erectophile foliage, whereas LD stand had higher P_C after male tetrad and got higher yield in hybrids with planophile foliage. Only R_C in hybrids of the two foliage types was higher under HD than under LD throughout the vegetation period.