植物种群生存力分析研究进展

对十多年来国外植物PVA的研究进行了综合评述;具体分析了影响植物种群生存力的各种随机性因子及确定性因子;总结了植物PVA研究的方法步骤及采用的模拟模型;探讨了植物PVA的难点,PVA对管理措施的评价效果;并提出对今后植物PVA的研究展望,认为PVA是研究濒危植物种群灭绝及评价管理或保护措施的有力工具;发展描述复杂种间关系的多种种的PVA模型以及包含多个影响因素的PVA应用模型是未来植物PVA的研究方向。     

Integrating genetic data and population viability analyses for the identification of harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) populations and management units

Identification of populations and management units is an essential step in the study of natural systems. Still, there is limited consensus regarding how to define populations and management units, and whether genetic methods allow for inference at the relevant spatial and temporal scale. Here, we present a novel approach, integrating genetic, life history and demographic data to identify populations and management units in southern Scandinavian harbour seals. First, 15 microsatellite markers and model‐ and distance‐based genetic clustering methods were used to determine the population genetic structure in harbour seals. Second, we used harbour seal demographic and life history data to conduct population viability analyses (PVAs) in the vortex simulation model in order to determine whether the inferred genetic units could be classified as management units according to Lowe and Allendorf's (Molecular Ecology, 19, 2010, 3038) ‘population viability criterion’ for demographic independence. The genetic analyses revealed fine‐scale population structuring in southern Scandinavian harbour seals and pointed to the existence of several genetic units. The PVAs indicated that the census population size of each of these genetic units was sufficiently large for long‐term population viability, and hence that the units could be classified as demographically independent management units. Our study suggests that population genetic inference can offer the same degree of temporal and spatial resolution as ‘nongenetic’ methods and that the combined use of genetic data and PVAs constitutes a promising approach for delineating populations and management units.     

The use and abuse of population viability analysis

A recent study by Brook et al. empirically tested the performance of population viability analysis (PVA) using data from 21 populations across a wide range of species. The study concluded that PVAs are good at predicting the future dynamics of populations. We suggest that this conclusion is a result of a bias in the studies that Brook et al. included in their analyses. We present arguments that PVAs can only be accurate at predicting extinction probabilities if data are extensive and reliable, and if the distribution of vital rates between individuals and years can be assumed stationary in the future, or if any changes can be accurately predicted. In particular, we note that although catastrophes are likely to have precipitated many extinctions, estimates of the probability of catastrophes are unreliable.     

Sheltered from the storm? Population viability analysis of a rare endemic under periodic catastrophe regimes

Rare species are important targets for biodiversity conservation efforts because rarity often equates to small populations and increased endangerment. Rare species are prone to stochastic extinction events and may be particularly susceptible to catastrophes. Therefore, understanding how rare species respond to disturbances is critical for evaluating extinction risk and guiding conservation managers. Population viability analyses (PVAs) are essential for assessing rare species' status yet they seldom consider catastrophic events. Accordingly, we present a PVA of a rare tropical epiphyte, Lepanthes caritensis (Orchidaceae), under simulated disturbance regimes to evaluate its demographics and extinction risk. We aimed to test how demographic models incorporating catastrophes affect population viability estimates. Our goal was to better guide management of these orchids and other rare plants. Results revealed L. caritensis numbers have declined recently, but projected growth rates indicated that most subpopulations should increase in size if undisturbed. Still, projection models show that moderate catastrophes reduce growth rates, increase stochasticity in subpopulation sizes, and elevate extinction risk. Severe catastrophes had a more pronounced effect in simulations; growth rates fell below replacement level, there was greater variation in projected population sizes, and extinction risk was significantly higher. PVAs incorporating periodic catastrophes indicate that rare species may have greater extinction probabilities than standard models suggest. Thus, precautionary conservation measures should be taken in disturbance prone settings and we encourage careful monitoring after environmental catastrophes. Future rare plant PVAs should incorporate catastrophes and aim to determine if rescue and reintroduction efforts are necessary after disturbances to insure long-term population viability.     

Comparison of reintroduction and enhancement effects on metapopulation viability

Metapopulation viability depends upon a balance of extinction and colonization of local habitats by a species. Mechanisms that can affect this balance include physical characteristics related to natural processes (e.g. succession) as well as anthropogenic actions. Plant restorations can help to produce favorable metapopulation dynamics and consequently increase viability; however, to date no studies confirm this is true. Population viability analysis (PVA) allows for the use of empirical data to generate theoretical future projections in the form of median time to extinction and probability of extinction. In turn, PVAs can inform and aid the development of conservation, recovery, and management plans. Pitcher's thistle (Cirsium pitcheri) is a dune endemic that exhibited metapopulation dynamics. We projected viability of three natural and two restored populations with demographic data spanning 15–23 years to determine the degree the addition of reintroduced population affects metapopulation viability. The models were validated by comparing observed and projected abundances and adjusting parameters associated with demographic and environmental stochasticity to improve model performance. Our chosen model correctly predicted yearly population abundance for 60% of the population‐years. Using that model, 50‐year projections showed that the addition of reintroductions increases metapopulation viability. The reintroduction that simulated population performance in early‐successional habitats had the maximum benefit. In situ enhancements of existing populations proved to be equally effective. This study shows that restorations can facilitate and improve metapopulation viability of species dependent on metapopulation dynamics for survival with long‐term persistence of C. pitcheri in Indiana likely to depend on continued active management.     

How do plant ecologists use matrix population models?

Matrix projection models are among the most widely used tools in plant ecology. However, the way in which plant ecologists use and interpret these models differs from the way in which they are presented in the broader academic literature. In contrast to calls from earlier reviews, most studies of plant populations are based on < 5 matrices and present simple metrics such as deterministic population growth rates. However, plant ecologists also cautioned against literal interpretation of model predictions. Although academic studies have emphasized testing quantitative model predictions, such forecasts are not the way in which plant ecologists find matrix models to be most useful. Improving forecasting ability would necessitate increased model complexity and longer studies. Therefore, in addition to longer term studies with better links to environmental drivers, priorities for research include critically evaluating relative/comparative uses of matrix models and asking how we can use many short-term studies to understand long-term population dynamics.     

Can Establishment Success Be Determined through Demographic Parameters? A Case Study on Five Introduced Bird Species

The dominant criterion to determine when an introduced species is established relies on the maintenance of a self-sustaining population in the area of introduction, i.e. on the viability of the population from a demographic perspective. There is however a paucity of demographic studies on introduced species, and establishment success is thus generally determined by expert opinion without undertaking population viability analyses (PVAs). By means of an intensive five year capture-recapture monitoring program (involving >12,000 marked individuals) we studied the demography of five introduced passerine bird species in southern Spain which are established and have undergone a fast expansion over the last decades. We obtained useful estimates of demographic parameters (survival and reproduction) for one colonial species (Ploceus melanocephalus), confirming the long-term viability of its local population through PVAs. However, extremely low recapture rates prevented the estimation of survival parameters and population growth rates for widely distributed species with low local densities (Estrilda troglodytes and Amandava amandava) but also for highly abundant yet non-colonial species (Estrilda astrild and Euplectes afer). Therefore, determining the establishment success of introduced passerine species by demographic criteria alone may often be troublesome even when devoting much effort to field-work. Alternative quantitative methodologies such as the analysis of spatio-temporal species distributions complemented with expert opinion deserve thus their role in the assessment of establishment success of introduced species when estimates of demographic parameters are difficult to obtain, as is generally the case for non-colonial, highly mobile passerines.     

Structural modelling of substrate binding and inhibition in penicillin V acylase from Pectobacterium atrosepticum

Penicillin V acylases (PVAs) and bile salt hydrolases (BSHs) have considerable sequence and structural similarity; however, they vary significantly in their substrate specificity. We have identified a PVA from a Gram-negative organism, Pectobacterium atrosepticum (PaPVA) that turned out to be a remote homolog of the PVAs and BSHs reported earlier. Even though the active site residues were conserved in PaPVA it showed high specificity towards penV and interestingly the penV acylase activity was inhibited by bile salts. Comparative modelling and docking studies were carried out to understand the structural differences of the binding site that confer this characteristic property. We show that PaPVA exhibits significant differences in structure, which are in contrast to those of known PVAs and such enzymes from Gram-negative bacteria require further investigation.     

Virus infections in wild plant populations are both frequent and often unapparent

? Premise of the study: Pathogens are thought to regulate host populations. In agricultural crops, virus infection reduces yield. However, in wild plants little is known about the spatial and temporal patterns of virus prevalence. Thus, pathogen effects on plant population dynamics are unclear. Prevalence data provide necessary background for (1) evaluating the effects of virus infection on plant population size and dynamics and (2) improving risk assessment of virus-resistant transgenic crops. ? Methods: We used ELISA and RT-PCR to survey wild Cucurbita pepo populations over 4 years for five viruses, aphid-transmitted viruses of the genus Potyvirus as a group and PCR to survey for virus-resistance transgenes. In addition, we surveyed the literature for reports of virus prevalence in wild populations. ? Key results: In 21 C. pepo populations, virus prevalence (0-74%) varied greatly among populations, years, and virus species. In samples analyzed by both ELISA and RT-PCR, RT-PCR detected 6-44% more viruses than did ELISA. Eighty percent of these infections did not cause any visually apparent symptoms. In our samples, the virus-resistance transgene was not present. In 30 published studies, 92 of 146 tested species were infected with virus, and infection rates ranged from 0.01-100%. Most published studies used ELISA, suggesting virus prevalence is higher than reported. ? Conclusions: In wild C. pepo, the demographic effects of virus are likely highly variable in space and time. Further, our literature survey suggests that such variation is probably common across plant species. Our results indicate that risk assessments for virus-resistant transgenic crops should not rely on visual symptoms or ELISA and should include data from multiple populations over multiple years.     

A review of the integration of classical biological control with other techniques to manage invasive weeds in natural areas and rangelands

Integrating classical biological control with other management techniques such as herbicide, fire, mechanical control, grazing, or plant competition, can be the most effective way to manage invasive weeds in natural areas and rangelands. Biological control agents can be protected from potential negative impacts of these weed control methods through untreated refugia or by applying the treatment at a time when the agent is not vulnerable. A literature review of experiments that integrated biological control with other management strategies from 1987 to 2017 yielded 39 terrestrial and 16 aquatic studies. The tactics most frequently integrated with biological control were herbicide applications and plant competition. Despite numerous examples of successful programs and calls for more widespread integration of biological control with other weed management strategies, there was no increase in the number of studies reported annually over time. Additional studies investigating the ecological and economic benefits of integrated weed management are needed.     

Remotely sensing arthropod and nutrient stressed plants: a case study with nitrogen and cotton aphid (Hemiptera: Aphididae)

Remote sensing can be used in combination with ground sampling to detect aphid- (Aphis gossypii Glover) infested cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.). Changes in wavelengths in the near-infrared (NIR) have proven useful for such detection, but these changes can be confused with other factors stressing plants, such as water deficiency and nutrient status. This study was designed to test the utility of this technology to distinguish between two factors stressing plants: nitrogen deficiency and aphids. Field plots were created by applying varying rates of nitrogen to cotton at different dates in the growing season in 2003 and 2004. Subplots were created by applying disruptive insecticides, which increased aphid populations in a portion of the subplots. Airplane and satellite remote sensing data in 2003 and 2004 were supplemented with ground sampling of aphid populations in both years. Insecticide application, nitrogen application rate and date influenced aphid abundance. Cotton with higher aphid populations could be distinguished from cotton with natural aphid infestations independent of plant nitrogen status using a NIR wavelength in 2003 and a proprietary 2004 index. Complex distinctions among varying nitrogen treatments and aphid abundance were not possible using this data. In the future, possible confounding factors should be investigated from the perspective of their change on crop physiology before remote sensing can be used in an integrated pest management (IPM) program.     

Inexplicable or Simply Unexplained? The Management of Maize Seed in Mexico

Farmer management of plant germplasm pre-dates crop domestication, but humans’ role in crop evolution and diversity remains largely undocumented and often contested. Seemingly inexplicable practices observed throughout agricultural history, such as exchanging or replacing seed, continue to structure crop populations across the developing world. Seed management practices can be construed as events in the life history of crops and management data used to model crop demography, but this requires suitable quantitative data. As a prerequisite to addressing the causes and implications of maize seed management, we describe its patterns of variation across Mexico by drawing from the literature and new analysis. We find that rates of seed replacement, introduction and diffusion differ significantly across regions and altitudinal zones, but interactions among explanatory factors can obscure patterns of variation. The type, source, geographic origin and ownership of seed help explain observed rates. Yet, controlling for the characteristics of germplasm barely reduces interregional differences vastly exceeding variation across elevations. With few exceptions, monotonic altitudinal trends are absent. Causal relationships between management practices and the physical environment could determine farmers’ wellbeing and crop conservation in the face of climate change. Scarce and inconsistent data on management nevertheless could prevent an understanding of these relationships. Current conceptions on the management and dynamics of maize diversity are founded on a patchwork of observations in surprisingly few and dissimilar environments. Our estimates of management practices should shed light on differences in maize population dynamics across Mexico. Consistency with previous studies spanning over a decade suggests that common sets of forces are present within large areas, but causal associations remain unknown. The next step in explaining crop diversity should address variation in seed management across space and time simultaneously while identifying farmers’ values and motivations as underlying forces.     

A proposal to use plant demographic data to assess potential weed biological control agents impacts on non-target plant populations

Weed biocontrol programs aim to reduce the spread and population growth rate of the target plant while stabilizing or increasing populations of those native species considered under threat by invasive plants. This goal is not unique to weed biocontrol but applies to all other invasive plant management techniques, though such information is rarely collected. Without this information, success of management interventions can be ambiguous, and regulatory agencies, the public, policy makers, funders and land managers cannot be held accountable for chosen treatments. A fundamental reform, including use of demographic studies and long-term assessments, are essential to guide weed biocontrol programs. We propose to add use of plant demography (an assessment of how environmental factors and ecological interactions, for example competition, disease or herbivory, may affect plant populations by altering survival, growth, development and reproductive rates of plant individuals) during host specificity risk assessments of potential biological control agents. Demographic models can refine assessments of potential impacts for those plant species that experience some feeding or larval development during host specificity testing. Our proposed approach to focus on impact on plant demography instead of attack on plant individuals is useful in appropriately gauging threats potential weed biocontrol agents may pose to non-target species after field release.     

Integral projection models perform better for small demographic data sets than matrix population models: a case study of two perennial herbs

1. Matrix population models are widely used to describe population dynamics, conduct population viability analyses and derive management recommendations for plant populations. For endangered or invasive species, management decisions are often based on small demographic data sets. Hence, there is a need for population models which accurately assess population performance from such small data sets.
2. We used demographic data on two perennial herbs with different life histories to compare the accuracy and precision of the traditional matrix population model and the recently developed integral projection model (IPM) in relation to the amount of data.
3. For large data sets both matrix models and IPMs produced identical estimates of population growth rate (λ). However, for small data sets containing fewer than 300 individuals, IPMs often produced smaller bias and variance for λ than matrix models despite different matrix structures and sampling techniques used to construct the matrix population models.
4. Synthesis and applications . Our results suggest that the smaller bias and variance of λ estimates make IPMs preferable to matrix population models for small demographic data sets with a few hundred individuals. These results are likely to be applicable to a wide range of herbaceous, perennial plant species where demographic fate can be modelled as a function of a continuous state variable such as size. We recommend the use of IPMs to assess population performance and management strategies particularly for endangered or invasive perennial herbs where little demographic data are available.     

Critical appraisals allow the analytical review of existing knowledge on current topics of significance in ecological entomology. They should assess the worth or quality of the work in the field and suggest areas for investigation.

Summary. Previous studies have synthesized life-table data from herbivore species to identify general trends in the demography of herbivorous insects. Frequency-based analyses were used to ascertain which of five mortality sources (enemies, plant factors, competition, weather, intrinsic developmental failure) and which of five ecological characteristics of herbivores (feeding biology, invasion status of the herbivore, latitude, cultivation, and successional status of the habitat) had important influences on mortality patterns. Here these results are reinforced with a quantitative analysis that relies on actual numbers of herbivores killed at different developmental stages by each of the five mortality sources in different ecological settings. We also examine the relationship between taxonomic category (Coleoptera, Diptera, Lepidoptera, and Hymenoptera) and mortality. The analysis identified developmental changes of herbivores as having an important influence on sources of mortality; feeding biology, latitude, and cultivation status also influenced the distribution of mortality sources. Other aspects of the herbivores’ ecology and taxonomy had limited effects. Natural enemies were identified as the most important mortality source overall, and their importance increased from the early larval stages to the pupal stages. They also kill more exophytic insects than endophytic insects, and kill a higher proportion of insects in cultivated habitats than in natural habitats. Weather kills more temperate-zone immatures than tropical/subtropical immatures. The results of the quantitative analysis generally confirm the earlier frequency-based tests. Several predictions that can serve as the foundation of an empirically-based theory of herbivore demography are offered: (1) natural enemies are the dominant cause of mortality in exophytic herbivore populations and may compete more intensely than on endophytics; (2) plant factors and enemies play a more balanced role in endophytic populations; (3) exophytic species should be particularly susceptible to top-down effects, especially in agroecosystems; (4) plant defences will often have sublethal effects, but when they are lethal they will be most important as the hatchling larva is just getting established on the plant. These predictions should be viewed as a challenge to engage in a broader way of thinking about herbivore demography.     

Randomly and Non-Randomly Missing Renal Function Data in the Strong Heart Study: A Comparison of Imputation Methods

Kidney and cardiovascular disease are widespread among populations with high prevalence of diabetes, such as American Indians participating in the Strong Heart Study (SHS). Studying these conditions simultaneously in longitudinal studies is challenging, because the morbidity and mortality associated with these diseases result in missing data, and these data are likely not missing at random. When such data are merely excluded, study findings may be compromised. In this article, a subset of 2264 participants with complete renal function data from Strong Heart Exams 1 (1989–1991), 2 (1993–1995), and 3 (1998–1999) was used to examine the performance of five methods used to impute missing data: listwise deletion, mean of serial measures, adjacent value, multiple imputation, and pattern-mixture. Three missing at random models and one non-missing at random model were used to compare the performance of the imputation techniques on randomly and non-randomly missing data. The pattern-mixture method was found to perform best for imputing renal function data that were not missing at random. Determining whether data are missing at random or not can help in choosing the imputation method that will provide the most accurate results.     

Population genetic structure of the endangered crayfish Austropotamobius pallipes in France based on microsatellite variation: biogeographical inferences and conservation implications

1. One important goal in conservation biology is to characterise evolutionary lineages within endangered species before management decisions are taken. Here, we assess population differentiation in the freshwater crayfish Austropotamobius pallipes, an endangered species endemic to western Europe and provide valuable information for the conservation of French populations. 2. Analysis of five microsatellite loci in 44 populations revealed very different within population levels of genetic diversity (0.000 < H₀ < 0.564). Two groups, corresponding to northern and southern French populations, showed a high degree of genetic differentiation in both allele frequencies and allele sizes. Comparison of these results with previous studies of A. pallipes strongly suggests that the divergence between northern and southern populations could have occurred during the last glaciation period of the Pleistocene from one Atlantic and one Mediterranean refuge. 3. Evidence for genetic admixture between these two lineages was revealed by correspondence analyses in southern populations, probably as the result of artificial translocations. 4. French populations appeared significantly differentiated among the different river drainages and were highly structured within rivers. The impact of population size, population bottlenecks and founder events on the population genetic differentiation are discussed. 5. Based on these results, we propose the designation of two evolutionarily significant units for A. pallipes in France. Our data also support the maintenance of separate demographic management strategies for crayfish inhabiting different river systems. However, genetic analyses will have to be combined with demographic and ecological data for sustainable conservation programmes.     

On quantifying tolerance of herbivory for comparative analyses

As the evolutionary importance of plant tolerance of herbivory is increasingly appreciated, more and more studies are not just measuring a plant's tolerance, but are comparing tolerance among plant genotypes, populations, species, and environments. Here, we suggest that caution must be taken in such comparative studies in the choice of measurement scales (and data transformations) for damage levels and plant performance. We demonstrate with a simple scenario of two plant groups of equal tolerance how the choice of scales can lead one to infer that the first group is more tolerant, the second group is more tolerant, or the two groups are equally tolerant-using the identical dataset. We conclude that to make reliable, logically consistent inferences when comparing tolerances among groups of plants, damage and performance should both be on an additive scale or both on a multiplicative scale.     

9TH ANNUAL CENERAL MEETINC OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN ORNITHOLOCICAL SOCIETY,HELD IN THE ZOOLOCICAL CARDENS,JOHANNESBURG, AT 11 A.M. ON SATURDAY, 25TH MARCH, 1939

The genus Poicephalus is one of four genera of parrots found on the African continent. However, little is known about this group of parrots as few studies have been undertaken in the wild and they remain one of the least studied groups of parrots. Decisions on their conservation status and determining appropriate trade quotas are often based on very limited information. Observing and collecting ecological and behavioural data on parrots in their natural habitat is difficult and accordingly the data from wild populations are limited. Genetic markers provide a potential method to obtain data on a species’ ecology, e.g. effective population size and reproductive behaviour, which can assist conservation management. However, developing or screening genetic markers for such investigations can be costly and time consuming and is not guaranteed; these constraints may deter researchers from considering or including them in proposals. This study has characterised 17 microsatellite loci across most species of the African Poicephalus parrots in order to encourage researchers to collect samples and/or to develop genetic studies for Poicephalus parrots. Additional knowledge from wild populations will benefit these little-known parrots.