德令哈地区柏树山不同生境气候对祁连圆柏径向生长的影响

为探究德令哈地区柏树山不同生境气候对祁连圆柏（Sabina przewalskii）径向生长的影响,在该区域设置3个采样点（S1：地势较低的陡坡地,S2：坡度缓和的凹形坡地,S3：地势较高的陡坡地）,运用树木年轮学方法收集了58棵祁连圆柏共113根样芯。通过建立3个样点的祁连圆柏差值年表,分析在半干旱区不同生境内祁连圆柏径向生长对气候响应的特征以及气候因子对祁连圆柏径向生长的贡献。结果表明：不同生境的祁连圆柏径向生长对降水的响应基本一致,对温度的响应则存在显著差异,其中当年5月的降水对不同生境祁连圆柏径向生长的贡献作用最大（P<0.01）,当年6月的降水次之（P<0.05）。温度对S1和S3祁连圆柏径向生长的贡献均不显著（P>0.05）。当年9月的平均最高温对S2祁连圆柏径向生长有显著的贡献作用（P<0.05）,低温对其的贡献并不显著（P>0.05）。研究结果论证了受地形差异的影响,不同生境下的气候对树木径向生长的影响具有多样性。因此,在研究树木生长与气候的关系时,应综合考虑不同生境的特点,以选取适宜的生境进行科学研究。     

不同生境和去趋势方法下的祁连圆柏径向生长对气候的响应

利用青海不同生境祁连圆柏树木年轮样本,采用3种不同去趋势方法建立树轮年表,结合青海30个气象站的气象资料,分析不同生境和去趋势方法下祁连圆柏径向生长对气候的响应差异。结果表明,祁连山区,生长季前期的平均气温是祁连圆柏树木径向生长的主要限制性因子,NEP树轮标准化宽度年表与生长季前期冬季平均气温相关最好;在柴达木盆地,生长季降水量是该地区树木径向生长的限制性因子,SPL树轮年表对生长季降水量相关较好;在青南高原,祁连圆柏径向生长对春季温度响应最为敏感,而SPL年表与春季温度呈现明显的负相关关系,相关系数达-0.606;而在青海东部地区,祁连圆柏树木径向生长对气候的响应总体不显著。位于青海西部和北部的柴达木盆地和祁连山区祁连圆柏径向生长受西风气候的影响显著,尤其是柴达木盆地,其气候受西风主导;而青南高原受西南季风影响更为显著,该地区祁连圆柏径向生长同时受西南季风气候和海拔高度两方面影响;在青海东部,祁连圆柏径向生长受东亚季风影响更为显著。     

水分胁迫下臭柏（Sabina vulgaris Ant.）光合特性和色素组成的季节变化

在室内砾耕栽培条件下,通过培养液中加入PEG(Polyethylene glycol 分子量为6000)以调节溶液渗透势,设置对照、弱水分胁迫和强水分胁迫3种处理 (培养液渗透势分别为0.02,-0.1,-0.34 MPa), 从1997年开始对臭柏进行长期干旱胁迫模拟实验.2003年测定了臭柏叶片光合色素和光合特性的季节变化.结果表明:对照区气孔导度季节变化在5月和9月份形成了典型的双峰曲线.尽管对照区的气孔导度明显高于其他两个处理,但日光合量却低于弱水分胁迫区.3个处理Chl a/b的比值在11月至翌年3月的低温期内均升高,以强水分胁迫区的增幅最大,其它月份该比值在3个处理之间没有显著的差异.3个处理的叶绿素总量(Chl a+b)在生长季的5～9月份均有不同程度的上升,但其中以强水分胁迫区增幅最小.在11月至翌年3月的低温期,各处理均大幅提高叶黄素总量(V+A+Z)和热耗散色素比例(A+Z)/(V+A+Z) (V:紫黄质、A:单环氧玉米黄质、Z:玉米黄质);在5～7月份的生长高峰期,各处理则明显降低了叶黄素总量和热耗散色素比例.这种趋势在强水分胁迫区表现的更为显著.     

模拟植物多样性的大尺度分布：从气候和生产力推知的一种可能性（英文）

 鉴于全球植被/生物群区在现状气候条件下已经被很好地模拟并在未来气候变化情景下得到很好的预测,人们有必要和急需模拟大尺度（区域、洲际至全球）植物多样性的分布格局。陆地生物圈模型的发展（从生物地理模型和生物地球化学模型到动态和耦合的植被模型）,气候-生物多样性相互关系和生产力-生物多样性相互关系研究成果的增多,以及基于现有生物多样性调查的全球生物多样性理论和经验制图的进步,加大了模拟大尺度植物多样性格局的可能性。本文的目的是：综述当前气候-生物多样性相互关系和生产力-生物多样性相互关系的主要研究成果以及大尺度     

祁连圆柏和圆柏色素含量及其花青苷合成酶活性的季节性变化

以祁连圆柏（Sabina przewalskii）和圆柏（S.chinensis）为材料,测定2种植物花青苷、类黄酮、紫松果黄素、叶绿素和类胡萝卜素的含量及花青苷合成过程中关键酶苯丙氨酸解氨酶（PAL）和类黄酮糖基转移酶（UFGT）的活性,并分析了各值的季节性变化。结果表明,祁连圆柏和圆柏叶片中PAL及UFGT的活性、花青苷、类黄酮﹑紫松果黄素以及类胡萝卜素的含量在低温季节均明显高于其它季节;叶绿素含量在低温季节低于其它季节;并且祁连圆柏中花青苷含量及其合成酶PAL和UFGT的活性以及类黄酮、紫松果黄素和叶绿素含量始终高于圆柏。结果说明花青苷是圆柏属植物中具有抗冻特性的重要次生代谢物,是抵御低温和辐射胁迫的一种重要保护物质;紫松果黄素等色素对圆柏属植物抵抗低温诱导的光抑制起重要作用。     

祁连圆柏和圆柏色素含量及其花青苷合成酶活性的季节性变化

以祁连圆柏(Sabina przewalskii)和圆柏(S. chinensis)为材料, 测定2种植物花青苷、类黄酮、紫松果黄素、叶绿素和 类胡萝卜素的含量及花青苷合成过程中关键酶苯丙氨酸解氨酶(PAL)和类黄酮糖基转移酶(UFGT)的活性, 并分析了各值的季节性变化。结果表明, 祁连圆柏和圆柏叶片中PAL及UFGT的活性、花青苷、类黄酮﹑紫松果黄素以及类胡萝卜素的含量在低温季节均明显高于其它季节; 叶绿素含量在低温季节低于其它季节; 并且祁连圆柏中花青苷含量及其合成酶PAL和UFGT的活性以及类黄酮、紫松果黄素和叶绿素含量始终高于圆柏。结果说明花青苷是圆柏属植物中具有抗冻特性的重要次生代谢物,是抵御低温和辐射胁迫的一种重要保护物质; 紫松果黄素等色素对圆柏属植物抵抗低温诱导的光抑制起重要作用。     

岷江上游祁连山圆柏群落结构研究

应用样方调查方法,对祁连山圆柏群落外貌和结构进行研究.结果表明,该群落生活型谱中以地面芽植物为主,但一年生植物也占有较大比率,具有一些温带植物群落特征.该群落垂直结构简单,只有乔、灌、草3层,无层间植物及地被层.乔木层只有祁连山圆柏1种;灌木层以高山绣线菊的重要值最大,为153.3;草本层以丛生苔草重要值最大,达到36.8.在不同坡度样地中,大坡度样地上具有相对较多的幼苗和幼树,而低坡度样地有刺灌木和适口性差的草本较多,这主要是由于坡度不同导致样地上放牧强度不同造成的.由年龄结构和高度结构的分析可以看出,祁连山圆柏种群总体上为衰退种群,如果任由放牧等干扰继续下去,群落将向灌丛草甸方向演替.群落上层盖度对下层盖度影响较大,且各层盖度大小与其多样性之间没有必然联系.     

Climate Change and Health Research in the Eastern Mediterranean Region

Anthropologically induced climate change, caused by an increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is an emerging threat to human health. Consequences of climate change may affect the prevalence of various diseases and environmental and social maladies that affect population health. In this article, we reviewed the literature on climate change and health in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. This region already faces numerous humanitarian crises, from conflicts to natural hazards and a high burden of disease. Climate change is likely to aggravate these emergencies, necessitating a strengthening of health systems and capacities in the region. However, the existing literature on climate change from the region is sparse and informational gaps stand in the way of regional preparedness and adaptation. Further research is needed to assess climatic changes and related health impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Such knowledge will allow countries to identify preparedness vulnerabilities, evaluate capacity to adapt to climate change, and develop adaptation strategies to allay the health impacts of climate change.     

不同海拔高度祁连圆柏和青海云杉叶片色素的变化特征

利用高效液相色谱法(high performance liquid chromatography,HPLC)和酶标仪等测定了祁连山区不同海拔高度下祁连圆柏(Sabina przewalskii)和青海云杉(Picea crassifolia)叶片中色素含量、花青苷合成酶苯丙氨酸解氨酶(phenylalanine ammonialyase,PAL)和类黄酮糖基转移酶(UDP glucose-flavonoid 3-O-glucosyFtransferase,UFGT)活性.结果表明:两树种花青苷(anthocyanin,Acy)含量除了在海拔高度3100-3200 m有所升高外,总体上随海拔高度上升而降低;UFGT活性除了在3000 m左右波动外,总体随海拔高度上升而升高;祁连圆柏PAL活性随海拔高度上升而升高,青海云杉PAL活性在海拔2800-3000 m时,随海拔高度上升而升高,当海拔高度高于3000 m时,随海拔高度上升而降低两树种紫松果黄素(rhodoxanthin,Rhd)含量、叶黄素循环(xanthophyll cycle,VAZ)的脱环氧化程度(A+Z)/(V+A+Z)比值和类胡萝卜素(carotenoids,Car)含量随海拔高度上升而升高;叶绿素(chlorophyll,Chl)含量随海拔高度上升而降低.除叶绿素含量和PAL活性外,其它指标都是祁连圆柏高于青海云杉,尤其是UFGT活性祁连圆柏是青海云杉的2倍多.不同海拔梯度、不同季节植物遭受的主导胁迫因子不同,8月份祁连山两树种主要受干旱和强光胁迫,色素主要发挥抗旱和抗辐射作用.由此说明植物色素在不同生境、不同季节发挥的作用不同.     

坡向对海拔梯度上祁连圆柏树木生长的影响

选择青海省同德县南部河北林场的一个连续坡面,根据不同海拔和坡向设置4个采样点,采集祁连圆柏(Sabina przewalskii)树轮数据,分析不同海拔和坡向对树木生长的影响。结果表明:坡面上部3个采样点的树轮年表特征值均呈一定的变化规律——平均敏感值(MS)和标准差(SD)随海拔升高而增大,一阶自相关(AC)随海拔升高而递减,下限年表特征值均表现出与其他3点的不同,都是最值(MS和SD均最大,AC最小);年表间相关和主成分分析结果都显示出海拔梯度上的变化规律,但下限差异显著;树轮指数与当年6–8月平均气温的相关系数呈增强趋势,森林上限受当年7、8月平均气温影响较大,下限树轮指数不仅与当年6月和前一年11月的气温显著负相关,而且受前一年8月和当年5月的月降水量影响显著。与通常情况"下限树木生长受降水制约"比较,这里的温度作用增强而降水限制减弱。显然,坡向扭转是海拔梯度上影响祁连圆柏生长变化的重要因子。     

Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region

Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i) the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii) the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii) the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute.     

The Effects of Weather and Climate Change on Dengue

Background

There is much uncertainty about the future impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases. Such uncertainty reflects the difficulties in modelling the complex interactions between disease, climatic and socioeconomic determinants. We used a comprehensive panel dataset from Mexico covering 23 years of province-specific dengue reports across nine climatic regions to estimate the impact of weather on dengue, accounting for the effects of non-climatic factors.

Methods and Findings

Using a Generalized Additive Model, we estimated statistically significant effects of weather and access to piped water on dengue. The effects of weather were highly nonlinear. Minimum temperature (Tmin) had almost no effect on dengue incidence below 5°C, but Tmin values above 18°C showed a rapidly increasing effect. Maximum temperature above 20°C also showed an increasing effect on dengue incidence with a peak around 32°C, after which the effect declined. There is also an increasing effect of precipitation as it rose to about 550 mm, beyond which such effect declines. Rising access to piped water was related to increasing dengue incidence. We used our model estimations to project the potential impact of climate change on dengue incidence under three emission scenarios by 2030, 2050, and 2080. An increase of up to 40% in dengue incidence by 2080 was estimated under climate change while holding the other driving factors constant.

Conclusions

Our results indicate that weather significantly influences dengue incidence in Mexico and that such relationships are highly nonlinear. These findings highlight the importance of using flexible model specifications when analysing weather–health interactions. Climate change may contribute to an increase in dengue incidence. Rising access to piped water may aggravate dengue incidence if it leads to increased domestic water storage. Climate change may therefore influence the success or failure of future efforts against dengue.