Shifting patterns: malaria dynamics and rainfall variability in an African highland

The long-term patterns of malaria in the East African highlands typically involve not only a general upward trend in cases but also a dramatic increase in the size of epidemic outbreaks. The role of climate variability in driving epidemic cycles at interannual time scales remains controversial, in part because it has been seen as conflicting with the alternative explanation of purely endogenous cycles exclusively generated by the nonlinear dynamics of the disease. We analyse a long temporal record of monthly cases from 1970 to 2003 in a highland of western Kenya with both a time-series epidemiological model (time-series susceptible-infected-recovered) and a statistical approach specifically developed for non-stationary patterns. Results show that multiyear cycles of malaria outbreaks appear in the 1980s, concomitant with the timing of a regime shift in the dynamics of cases; the cycles become more pronounced in the 1990s, when the coupling between disease and rainfall is also stronger as the variance of rainfall increased at the frequencies of coupling. Disease dynamics and climate forcing play complementary and interacting roles at different temporal scales. Thus, these mechanisms should not be viewed as alternative and their interaction needs to be integrated in the development of future predictive models.     

Transmission intensity and drug resistance in malaria population dynamics: implications for climate change

Although the spread of drug resistance and the influence of climate change on malaria are most often considered separately, these factors have the potential to interact through altered levels of transmission intensity. The influence of transmission intensity on the evolution of drug resistance has been addressed in theoretical studies from a population genetics' perspective; less is known however on how epidemiological dynamics at the population level modulates this influence. We ask from a theoretical perspective, whether population dynamics can explain non-trivial, non-monotonic, patterns of treatment failure with transmission intensity, and, if so, under what conditions. We then address the implications of warmer temperatures in an East African highland, where, as in other similar regions at the altitudinal edge of malaria's distribution, there has been a pronounced increase of cases from the 1970s to the 1990s. Our theoretical analyses, with a transmission model that includes different levels of immunity, demonstrate that an increase in transmission beyond a threshold can lead to a decrease in drug resistance, as previously shown, but that a second threshold may occur and lead to the re-establishment of drug resistance. Estimates of the increase in transmission intensity from the 1970s to the 1990s for the Kenyan time series, obtained by fitting the two-stage version of the model with an explicit representation of vector dynamics, suggest that warmer temperatures are likely to have moved the system towards the first threshold, and in so doing, to have promoted the faster spread of drug resistance. Climate change and drug resistance can interact and need not be considered as alternative explanations for trends in disease incidence in this region. Non-monotonic patterns of treatment failure with transmission intensity similar to those described as the 'valley phenomenon' for Uganda can result from epidemiological dynamics but under poorly understood assumptions.     

Upward elevation and northwest range shifts for alpine Meconopsis species in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountains region

Climate change may impact the distribution of species by shifting their ranges to higher elevations or higher latitudes. The impacts on alpine plant species may be particularly profound due to a potential lack of availability of future suitable habitat. To identify how alpine species have responded to climate change during the past century as well as to predict how they may react to possible global climate change scenarios in the future, we investigate the climatic responses of seven species of Meconopsis, a representative genus endemic in the alpine meadow and subnival region of the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountains. We analyzed past elevational shifts, as well as projected shifts in longitude, latitude, elevation, and range size using historical specimen records and species distribution modeling under optimistic (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios across three general circulation models for 2070. Our results indicate that across all seven species, there has been an upward shift in mean elevation of 302.3 m between the pre‐1970s (1922–1969) and the post‐1970s (1970–2016). The model predictions suggest that the future suitable climate space will continue to shift upwards in elevation (as well as northwards and westwards) by 2070. While for most of the analyzed species, the area of suitable climate space is predicted to expand under the optimistic emission scenario, the area contracts, or, at best, shows little change under the pessimistic scenario. Species such as M. punicea, which already occupy high latitudes, are consistently predicted to experience a contraction of suitable climate space across all the models by 2070 and may consequently deserve particular attention by conservation strategies. Collectively, our results suggest that the alpine high‐latitude species analyzed here have already been significantly impacted by climate change and that these trends may continue over the coming decades.     

中国富士苹果种植气候适宜区的年代际变化

苹果是中国种植面积最大的水果,分析气候变化背景下其种植气候适宜区的年代际变化,可为合理利用气候资源、科学应对气候变化提供参考。基于中国主栽的富士苹果地理分布信息和1961—2010年中国区域2084个气象台站资料,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和ArcGIS软件,通过构建富士苹果种植分布与气候因子的关系模型,分析1961—2010年中国富士苹果种植分布的年代际变化特征及其对气候变化响应的敏感区。结果表明,气候变化导致中国富士苹果种植分布的气候界限和气候适宜区明显北移,其中气候适宜区范围伴有西扩趋势。富士苹果种植的各气候适宜区分布年代际变化特征明显,适宜气候种植面积显著增加,特别是1990s变化最为突出,2010s气候种植适宜面积较1960s增加36%。但高气候适宜区面积则呈年代际波动,2010s虽略高于1960s,但较1970s—1980s减少25%。富士苹果种植适宜区对气候变化响应最为敏感的地区主要分布在辽宁南部、鲁南、苏北、豫东南、黄土高原西北部和川陕接壤区。除热量条件外,年日照时数对富士苹果种植的气候适宜区面积影响显著,气候资源变化有助于富士苹果种植的气候适宜范围增加,但不利于高气候适宜区的稳定。     

Malaria in Brazil: what happens outside the Amazonian endemic region

Brazil, a country of continental proportions, presents three profiles of malaria transmission. The first and most important numerically, occurs inside the Amazon. The Amazon accounts for approximately 60% of the nation’s territory and approximately 13% of the Brazilian population. This region hosts 99.5% of the nation’s malaria cases, which are predominantly caused by Plasmodium vivax (i.e., 82% of cases in 2013). The second involves imported malaria, which corresponds to malaria cases acquired outside the region where the individuals live or the diagnosis was made. These cases are imported from endemic regions of Brazil (i.e., the Amazon) or from other countries in South and Central America, Africa and Asia. Imported malaria comprised 89% of the cases found outside the area of active transmission in Brazil in 2013. These cases highlight an important question with respect to both therapeutic and epidemiological issues because patients, especially those with falciparum malaria, arriving in a region where the health professionals may not have experience with the clinical manifestations of malaria and its diagnosis could suffer dramatic consequences associated with a potential delay in treatment. Additionally, because the Anopheles vectors exist in most of the country, even a single case of malaria, if not diagnosed and treated immediately, may result in introduced cases, causing outbreaks and even introducing or reintroducing the disease to a non-endemic, receptive region. Cases introduced outside the Amazon usually occur in areas in which malaria was formerly endemic and are transmitted by competent vectors belonging to the subgenus Nyssorhynchus (i.e., Anopheles darlingi, Anopheles aquasalis and species of the Albitarsis complex). The third type of transmission accounts for only 0.05% of all cases and is caused by autochthonous malaria in the Atlantic Forest, located primarily along the southeastern Atlantic Coast. They are caused by parasites that seem to be (or to be very close to) P. vivax and, in a less extent, by Plasmodium malariae and it is transmitted by the bromeliad mosquito Anopheles (Kerteszia) cruzii. This paper deals mainly with the two profiles of malaria found outside the Amazon: the imported and ensuing introduced cases and the autochthonous cases. We also provide an update regarding the situation in Brazil and the Brazilian endemic Amazon.     

Mosquito-borne disease and climate change in Australia: time for a reality check

Will warming climate increase the risk or prevalence of mosquito-borne disease in Australia, as has been projected in a number of scientific publications and governmental reports? Unfortunately, most of these 'predictions' do not adequately consider the current and historical distribution of the vectors and diseases, their local ecology and epidemiology and the impact of societal features and the capacity for public health interventions in Australia. Overall, a strong case can be made that we are unlikely to see significant changes in the distribution of transmission of the exotic pathogens causing malaria and dengue, and while activity of endemic arboviruses such as Murray Valley encephalitis and Ross River viruses may possibly increase in some areas, it is likely to decrease in others. The ecologies of mosquito-borne diseases can be complex and difficult to predict, and any evaluation of potential effects of changes in climate will need a detailed examination of site-specific vector, host and other factors likely to influence the outcomes on human health. Of itself, climate change as currently projected, is not likely to provide great cause for public health concern with mosquito-borne disease in Australia.     

Morbidity in the marshes: using spatial epidemiology to investigate skeletal evidence for Malaria in Anglo-Saxon England (AD 410-1050)

Concerns over climate change and its potential impact on infectious disease prevalence have contributed to a resurging interest in malaria in the past. A wealth of historical evidence indicates that malaria, specifically Plasmodium vivax, was endemic in the wetlands of England from the 16th century onwards. While it is thought that malaria was introduced to Britain during the Roman occupation (AD first to fifth centuries), the lack of written mortality records prior to the post-medieval period makes it difficult to evaluate either the presence or impact of the disease. The analysis of human skeletal remains from archaeological contexts is the only potential means of examining P. vivax in the past. Malaria does not result in unequivocal pathological lesions in the human skeleton; however, it results in hemolytic anemia, which can contribute to the skeletal condition cribra orbitalia. Using geographical information systems (GIS), we conducted a spatial analysis of the prevalence of cribra orbitalia from 46 sites (5,802 individuals) in relation to geographical variables, historically recorded distribution patterns of indigenous malaria and the habitat of its mosquito vector Anopheles atroparvus. Overall, those individuals living in low-lying and Fenland regions exhibited higher levels of cribra orbitalia than those in nonmarshy locales. No corresponding relationship existed with enamel hypoplasia. We conclude that P. vivax malaria, in conjunction with other comorbidities, is likely to be responsible for the pattern observed. Studies of climate and infectious disease in the past are important for modeling future health in relation to climate change predictions.     

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Shifts on Malaria Transmission in the Sahel

Climate affects malaria transmission through a complex network of causative pathways. We seek to evaluate the impact of hypothetical climate change scenarios on malaria transmission in the Sahel by using a novel mechanistic, high spatial- and temporal-resolution coupled hydrology and agent-based entomology model. The hydrology model component resolves individual precipitation events and individual breeding pools. The impact of future potential climate shifts on the representative Sahel village of Banizoumbou, Niger, is estimated by forcing the model of Banizoumbou environment with meteorological data from two locations along the north–south climatological gradient observed in the Sahel—both for warmer, drier scenarios from the north and cooler, wetter scenarios from the south. These shifts in climate represent hypothetical but historically realistic climate change scenarios. For Banizoumbou climatic conditions (latitude 13.54 N), a shift toward cooler, wetter conditions may dramatically increase mosquito abundance; however, our modeling results indicate that the increased malaria transmissibility is not simply proportional to the precipitation increase. The cooler, wetter conditions increase the length of the sporogonic cycle, dampening a large vectorial capacity increase otherwise brought about by increased mosquito survival and greater overall abundance. Furthermore, simulations varying rainfall event frequency demonstrate the importance of precipitation patterns, rather than simply average or time-integrated precipitation, as a controlling factor of these dynamics. Modeling results suggest that in addition to changes in temperature and total precipitation, changes in rainfall patterns are very important to predict changes in disease susceptibility resulting from climate shifts. The combined effect of these climate-shift–induced perturbations can be represented with the aid of a detailed mechanistic model.     

Climate influences on the cost-effectiveness of vector-based interventions against malaria in elimination scenarios

Despite the dependence of mosquito population dynamics on environmental conditions, the associated impact of climate and climate change on present and future malaria remains an area of ongoing debate and uncertainty. Here, we develop a novel integration of mosquito, transmission and economic modelling to assess whether the cost-effectiveness of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) against Plasmodium falciparum transmission by Anopheles gambiae s.s. mosquitoes depends on climatic conditions in low endemicity scenarios. We find that although temperature and rainfall affect the cost-effectiveness of IRS and/or LLIN scale-up, whether this is sufficient to influence policy depends on local endemicity, existing interventions, host immune response to infection and the emergence rate of insecticide resistance. For the scenarios considered, IRS is found to be more cost-effective than LLINs for the same level of scale-up, and both are more cost-effective at lower mean precipitation and higher variability in precipitation and temperature. We also find that the dependence of peak transmission on mean temperature translates into optimal temperatures for vector-based intervention cost-effectiveness. Further cost-effectiveness analysis that accounts for country-specific epidemiological and environmental heterogeneities is required to assess optimal intervention scale-up for elimination and better understand future transmission trends under climate change.     

Impact of Climate Variability on Infectious Disease in West Africa

The importance of infectious disease as a determinant (as well as an outcome) of poverty has recently become a prominent argument for international and national investment in the control of infectious disease, as can be seen in the recently articulated United Nations (UN) Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Climate variability and land use change have an enormous impact on health in West Africa, and may yet undermine the potential for achieving the MDGs, in certain economic-ecological zones. However, their underlying role in determining the burden of disease in the region on a yearly or decadal basis has never been systematically studied. In order to improve our understanding of the future impacts of climate change, it may be more effective to start by investigating the impact of inter-annual climate variability, and short-term shifts in climate (e.g., decadal), on disease transmission dynamics. This information may inform both current and future policy decisions with regard to prediction, prevention, and management of adverse climate-related health outcomes. This article reviews current knowledge of changes in the epidemiology of infectious diseases associated with climate variability in West Africa over the last 40 years. Selected examples are considered from bacterial (meningococcal meningitis), protozoan (malaria), and filarial (onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis) infections where spatial and temporal disease patterns have been directly influenced by seasonal, inter-annual, or decadal changes in climate.The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) or any of its sub-agencies.     

Observed change of the standardized precipitation index, its potential cause and implications to future climate change in the Amazon region

Observations show that the standard precipitation index (SPI) over the southern Amazon region decreased in the period of 1970-1999 by 0.32 per decade, indicating an increase in dry conditions. Simulations of constant pre-industrial climate with recent climate models indicate a low probability (p=0%) that the trends are due to internal climate variability. When the 23 models are forced with either anthropogenic factors or both anthropogenic and external natural factors, approximately 13% of sampled 30-year SPI trends from the models are found to be within the range of the observed SPI trend at 95% confidence level. This suggests a possibility of anthropogenic and external forcing of climate change in the southern Amazon. On average, the models project no changes in the frequency of occurrence of low SPI values in the future; however, those models which produce more realistic SPI climatology, variability and trend over the period 1970-1999 show more of a tendency towards more negative values of SPI in the future. The analysis presented here suggests a potential anthropogenic influence on Amazon drying, which warrants future, more in-depth, study.     

The role of climate change in the widespread mortality of holm oak in open woodlands of Southwestern Spain

Forest decline and increasing tree mortality are of global concern and the identification of the causes is necessary to develop preventive measures. Global warming is an emerging factor responsible for the increasing tree mortality in drought-prone ecosystems. In the southwestern Iberian Peninsula, Mediterranean holm oak open woodlands currently undergo large-scale population-level tree die-off. In this region, temperature and aridity have increased during recent decades, but the possible role of climate change in the current oak mortality has not been investigated.To assess the role of climate change in oak die-off in managed open woodlands in southwestern Spain, we analyzed climate change-related signals in century-long tree ring chronologies of dead holm oaks. We examined the high/low-frequency variability in growth and the relationship between growth and climate.Similar to other Mediterranean forests, growth was favored by precipitation from autumn of the year prior to ring formation to spring of the year of ring formation, whereas high temperatures during spring limited growth. Since the 1970s, the intensity of the high-frequency response to water availability increased simultaneously with temperature and aridity. The growth trends matched those of climatic changes. Growth suppressions occurred during droughts in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. Widespread stand-level, age-independent mortality occurred since 2005 and affected trees that cannot be considered old for the species standards.The close relationship between growth and climate indicate that climate change strongly controlled the growth patterns. This suggests that harsher climatic conditions, especially increased aridity, affected the tree performance and could have played a significant role in the mortality process. Climate change may have exacerbated or predisposed trees to the impact of other factors (e.g. intense management and pathogens). These observations could suggest a similar future increase in oak mortality which may occur in more northern oak open woodlands if aridity further increases.     

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito‐borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird–mosquito–malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid‐century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.     

A sticky situation: the unexpected stability of malaria elimination

Malaria eradication involves eliminating malaria from every country where transmission occurs. Current theory suggests that the post-elimination challenges of remaining malaria-free by stopping transmission from imported malaria will have onerous operational and financial requirements. Although resurgent malaria has occurred in a majority of countries that tried but failed to eliminate malaria, a review of resurgence in countries that successfully eliminated finds only four such failures out of 50 successful programmes. Data documenting malaria importation and onwards transmission in these countries suggests malaria transmission potential has declined by more than 50-fold (i.e. more than 98%) since before elimination. These outcomes suggest that elimination is a surprisingly stable state. Elimination''s ‘stickiness’ must be explained either by eliminating countries starting off qualitatively different from non-eliminating countries or becoming different once elimination was achieved. Countries that successfully eliminated were wealthier and had lower baseline endemicity than those that were unsuccessful, but our analysis shows that those same variables were at best incomplete predictors of the patterns of resurgence. Stability is reinforced by the loss of immunity to disease and by the health system''s increasing capacity to control malaria transmission after elimination through routine treatment of cases with antimalarial drugs supplemented by malaria outbreak control. Human travel patterns reinforce these patterns; as malaria recedes, fewer people carry malaria from remote endemic areas to remote areas where transmission potential remains high. Establishment of an international resource with backup capacity to control large outbreaks can make elimination stickier, increase the incentives for countries to eliminate, and ensure steady progress towards global eradication. Although available evidence supports malaria elimination''s stickiness at moderate-to-low transmission in areas with well-developed health systems, it is not yet clear if such patterns will hold in all areas. The sticky endpoint changes the projected costs of maintaining elimination and makes it substantially more attractive for countries acting alone, and it makes spatially progressive elimination a sensible strategy for a malaria eradication endgame.     

Climate variation influences host specificity in avian malaria parasites

Parasites with low host specificity (e.g. infecting a large diversity of host species) are of special interest in disease ecology, as they are likely more capable of circumventing ecological or evolutionary barriers to infect new hosts than are specialist parasites. Yet for many parasites, host specificity is not fixed and can vary in response to environmental conditions. Using data on host associations for avian malaria parasites (Apicomplexa: Haemosporida), we develop a hierarchical model that quantifies this environmental dependency by partitioning host specificity variation into region‐ and parasite‐level effects. Parasites were generally phylogenetic host specialists, infecting phylogenetically clustered subsets of available avian hosts. However, the magnitude of this specialisation varied biogeographically, with parasites exhibiting higher host specificity in regions with more pronounced rainfall seasonality and wetter dry seasons. Recognising the environmental dependency of parasite specialisation can provide useful leverage for improving predictions of infection risk in response to global climate change.     

Effects of high latitude protected areas on bird communities under rapid climate change

Anthropogenic climate change is rapidly becoming one of the main threats to biodiversity, along with other threats triggered by human‐driven land‐use change. Species are already responding to climate change by shifting their distributions polewards. This shift may create a spatial mismatch between dynamic species distributions and static protected areas (PAs). As protected areas represent one of the main pillars for preserving biodiversity today and in the future, it is important to assess their contribution in sheltering the biodiversity communities, they were designated to protect. A recent development to investigate climate‐driven impacts on biological communities is represented by the community temperature index (CTI). CTI provides a measure of the relative temperature average of a community in a specific assemblage. CTI value will be higher for assemblages dominated by warm species compared with those dominated by cold‐dwelling species. We here model changes in the CTI of Finnish bird assemblages, as well as changes in species densities, within and outside of PAs during the past four decades in a large boreal landscape under rapid change. We show that CTI has markedly increased over time across Finland, with this change being similar within and outside PAs and five to seven times slower than the temperature increase. Moreover, CTI has been constantly lower within than outside of PAs, and PAs still support communities, which show colder thermal index than those outside of PAs in the 1970s and 1980s. This result can be explained by the higher relative density of northern species within PAs than outside. Overall, our results provide some, albeit inconclusive, evidence that PAs may play a role in supporting the community of northern species. Results also suggest that communities are, however, shifting rapidly, both inside and outside of PAs, highlighting the need for adjusting conservation measures before it is too late.     

Eight decades of sampling reveal a contemporary novel fish assemblage in coastal nursery habitats

In order to adequately monitor biodiversity trends through time and their responses to natural or anthropogenic impacts, researchers require long time series that are often unavailable. This general lack of datasets that are several decades or longer makes establishing a background or baseline of diversity metrics difficult – especially when attempting to understand species composition changes against a backdrop of climate and ecological variability. Here, we present an analysis of a community of juvenile nearshore fishes based on nearly 8 decades of highly standardized Norwegian survey records. Using multivariate statistical techniques, we: (i) characterize the change in taxonomic community composition through time, (ii) determine whether there has been an increase in warm‐water affinity species relative to their cold water affinity counterparts, and (iii) characterize the temporal change in the species’ functional trait assemblage. Our results strongly indicate a shift toward a novel fish assemblage between the late 1990s and 2000s. The context of changes within the most recent two decades is in stark contrast to those during the 1960s and 1970s, but similar to those during the previous warm period during the 1930s and 1940s. This novel assemblage is tightly linked to the warming temperatures in the region portrayed by the increased presence of warm‐water species and a higher incidence of pelagic, planktivorous species. The results indicate a clear influence of ocean temperature on the region's juvenile fish community that points to climate‐mediated effects on the species assemblages of an important fish nursery area.     

Impacts of climate change on national biodiversity population trends

Climate change has had well‐documented impacts on the distribution and phenology of species across many taxa, but impacts on species’ abundance, which relates closely to extinction risk and ecosystem function, have not been assessed across taxa. In the most comprehensive multi‐taxa comparison to date, we modelled variation in national population indices of 501 mammal, bird, aphid, butterfly and moth species as a function of annual variation in weather variables, which through time allowed us to identify a component of species’ population growth that can be associated with post‐1970s climate trends. We found evidence that these climate trends have significantly affected population trends of 15.8% of species, including eight with extreme (> 30% decline per decade) negative trends consistent with detrimental impacts of climate change. The modelled effect of climate change could explain 48% of the significant across‐species population decline in moths and 63% of the population increase in winged aphids. The other taxa did not have significant across‐species population trends or consistent climate change responses. Population declines in species of conservation concern were linked to both climatic and non‐climatic factors respectively accounting for 42 and 58% of the decline. Evident differential impacts of climate change between trophic levels may signal the potential for future ecosystem disruption. Climate change has therefore already driven large‐scale population changes of some species, had significant impacts on the overall abundance of some key invertebrate groups and may already have altered biological communities and ecosystems in Great Britain.     

Predicting the timing of cherry blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change

Cherry blossoms, an icon of spring, are celebrated in many cultures of the temperate region. For its sensitivity to winter and early spring temperatures, the timing of cherry blossoms is an ideal indicator of the impacts of climate change on tree phenology. Here, we applied a process-based phenology model for temperate deciduous trees to predict peak bloom dates (PBD) of flowering cherry trees (Prunus×yedoensis ‘Yoshino’ and Prunus serrulata ‘Kwanzan’) in the Tidal Basin, Washington, DC and the surrounding Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change. We parameterized the model with observed PBD data from 1991 to 2010. The calibrated model was tested against independent datasets of the past PBD data from 1951 to 1970 in the Tidal Basin and more recent PBD data from other locations (e.g., Seattle, WA). The model performance against these independent data was satisfactory (Yoshino: r² = 0.57, RMSE = 6.6 days, bias = 0.9 days and Kwanzan: r² = 0.76, RMSE = 5.5 days, bias = −2.0 days). We then applied the model to forecast future PBD for the region using downscaled climate projections based on IPCC''s A1B and A2 emissions scenarios. Our results indicate that PBD at the Tidal Basin are likely to be accelerated by an average of five days by 2050 s and 10 days by 2080 s for these cultivars under a mid-range (A1B) emissions scenario projected by ECHAM5 general circulation model. The acceleration is likely to be much greater (13 days for 2050 s and 29 days for 2080s ) under a higher (A2) emissions scenario projected by CGCM2 general circulation model. Our results demonstrate the potential impacts of climate change on the timing of cherry blossoms and illustrate the utility of a simple process-based phenology model for developing adaptation strategies to climate change in horticulture, conservation planning, restoration and other related disciplines.     

Spatial heterogeneity in the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of a Mediterranean tortoise

Climatic shifts may increase the extinction risk of populations, especially when they are already suffering from other anthropogenic impacts. Our ability to predict the consequences of climate change on endangered species is limited by our scarce knowledge of the effects of climate variability on the population dynamics of most organisms and by the uncertainty of climate projections, which depend strongly on the region of the earth being considered. In this study, we analysed a long‐term monitoring programme (1988–2009) of Hermann's tortoise (Testudo hermanni) aimed at evaluating the consequences of the drastic changes in temperature and precipitation patterns predicted for the Mediterranean region on the demography of a long‐lived species with low dispersal capability and already suffering a large number of threats. Capture–recapture modelling of a population in the Ebro Delta (NE Spain) allowed us to assess the effect of climate variability on the survival of tortoises. Winter rainfall was found to be the major driver of juvenile and immature survival, whereas that of adults remained high and constant across the study. Furthermore, local climate series obtained ad hoc from regional climate simulations, for this and 10 additional Mediterranean locations where tortoises occurred, provided us with reliable future climate forecasts, which were used to simulate the fate of these populations under three precipitation scenarios (mean, wet and dry) using stochastic population modelling. We show that a shift to a more arid climate would have negative consequences for population persistence, enhancing juvenile mortality and increasing quasiextinction risk because of a decrease in recruitment. These processes varied depending on the population and the climate scenario we considered, but our results suggest that unless other human‐induced causes of mortality are suppressed (e.g. poaching, fire, habitat fragmentation), climate variability will increase extinction risk within most of the species’ current range.