Global warming threatens the persistence of Mediterranean brown trout

Current climate change exacerbates the environmental restrictions on temperate species inhabiting low latitude edges of their geographical ranges. We examined how temperature variations due to current and future climate change are likely to affect populations’ persistence of stream‐dwelling brown trout Salmo trutta at the vulnerable southern periphery of its range. Analysis of 33 years of air temperature data (1975–2007) by time‐series models indicated a significant upward trend and a pronounced shift in air temperature around 1986‐1987. This warming is associated with an ongoing population decline of brown trout, most likely caused by a loss of suitable thermal habitat in lower latitudes since the 1980s. Population decrease may not be attributed to physical habitat modification or angler pressure, as carrying capacity remained stable and populations were not overexploited. We developed regional temperature models, which predicted that unsuitable thermal habitat for brown trout increased by 93% when comparing climate conditions between 1975–1986 and 1993–2004. Predictions from climate envelope models showed that current climate change may be rendering unsuitable 12% of suitable thermal habitat each decade, resulting in an overall population decrease in the lower reaches of around 6% per year. Furthermore, brown trout catches markedly decreased 20% per year. Projections of thermal habitat loss under the ecologically friendly B2 SRES scenario showed that brown trout may lose half of their current suitable habitat within the study area by 2040 and become almost extinct by 2100. In parallel to the upstream movement of brown trout thermal habitat, warm water species are increasing their relative abundance in salmonid waters. Empirical evidence was provided of how current climate change threatens some of the most healthy native brown trout populations in Southern Europe and how forthcoming climate change is expected to further decrease the conservation status of the species.     

Juvenile salmonid populations in a temperate river system track synoptic trends in climate

Widespread declines among Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) over recent decades have been linked to pollution, exploitation and catchment modification, but climate change is increasingly implicated. We used long‐term, geographically extensive data from the Welsh River Wye, formerly a major salmon river, to examine whether climatically mediated effects on juveniles (>0+) might contribute to population change. Populations of Atlantic salmon and brown trout fell across the Wye catchment, respectively, by 50% and 67% between 1985 and 2004, but could not be explained by pollution because water quality improved during this time. Stream temperatures, estimated from calibrations against weekly air temperature at eight sites, increased by 0.5–0.7 °C in summer and 0.7–1.0 °C in winter, with larger tributaries warming more than shaded headwaters. Rates of winter warming were slightly greater after accounting for the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation (1.1–1.4 °C). However, warming through time was smaller than measured variations among tributaries, and alone was insufficient to explain variations in salmonid density. Instead, population variations were best explained in multilevel mixed models by a synoptic variate representing a trend towards hotter, drier summers, implying interactions between climate warming, varying discharge and fluctuations in both brown trout and salmon. Taken alongside recent data showing effects of warming on survival at sea, these data suggest that Atlantic salmon might be jeopardized by future climatic effects in both their marine and freshwater stages. Effects on nondiadromous brown trout also imply climatically mediated processes in freshwaters or their catchments. Climate projections for the United Kingdom suggest that altered summer flow and increasing summer temperatures could exacerbate losses further in these species, and we advocate management actions that combine reduced abstraction with enhanced riparian shading.     

Temperature dependence of predation depends on the relative performance of predators and prey

The temperature dependence of predation rates is a key issue for understanding and predicting the responses of ecosystems to climate change. Using a simple mechanistic model, we demonstrate that differences in the relative performances of predator and prey can cause strong threshold effects in the temperature dependence of attack rates. Empirical data on the attack rate of northern pike (Esox lucius) feeding on brown trout (Salmo trutta) confirm this result. Attack rates fell sharply below a threshold temperature of +11°C, which corresponded to a shift in relative performance of pike and brown trout with respect to maximum attack and escape swimming speeds. The average attack speed of pike was an order of magnitude lower than the escape speed of brown trout at 5°C, but approximately equal at temperatures above 11°C. Thresholds in the temperature dependence of ecological rates can create tipping points in the responses of ecosystems to increasing temperatures. Thus, identifying thresholds is crucial when predicting future effects of climate warming.     

Interacting effects of temperature and density on individual growth performance in a wild population of brown trout

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Re‐building brown trout populations in dredged boreal forest streams: in‐stream restoration combined with stocking of young trout

1. Rivers in boreal forested areas were often dredged to facilitate the transport of timber resulting in channels with simplified bed structure and flow fields and reduced habitat suitability for stream organisms, especially lotic fishes. Currently, many streams are being restored to improve their physical habitat, by replacing boulders and gravel and removing constraining embankments. The most compelling justification behind stream restoration of former floatways has been the enhancement of native fish populations, specifically salmonids. 2. We examined the success of a stream management programme aimed at re‐building diminished brown trout (Salmo trutta) populations by monitoring densities of young‐of‐year and older trout in 18 managed and three reference streams during 2000–2005. Rehabilitation included in‐stream restoration combined with a 5‐year post‐restoration period of stocking young brown trout. Our space‐for‐time substitution design comprised four pre‐management, four under‐management, 10 post‐management and three reference streams. 3. Densities of young‐of‐year brown trout, indicating population establishment, were significantly higher in post‐ compared with pre‐management streams. However, density of young‐of‐year brown trout in post‐management streams was significantly lower compared with near‐pristine reference streams. Furthermore, success of managed brown trout population re‐building varied, indicating stream‐specific responses to management measures. Density of burbot (Lota lota), a native generalist predator, was associated with low recruitment of brown trout. 4. Stream‐specific responses imply that rehabilitation of brown trout populations cannot be precisely predicted thereby limiting application. Our findings support the importance of adaptive stream restoration and management, with focus on identifying factor(s) limiting the establishment of target fish populations.     

Ontogenetic variation in density‐dependent growth of brown trout through habitat competition

1. Density‐dependent growth has been widely reported in freshwater fishes, but the ontogenetic evolution of competition and its subsequent effects on growth through a life span remains unclear. 2. Patterns of competition can be described by integrating population abundance data with habitat‐modelling results. Weighted usable area (WUA; m² WUA ha^?1) curves are obtained for each flow value and are then coupled with demographic data to obtain the occupancy rates (trout m^?2 WUA, the density of a given age class related to its suitable habitat) of the WUA for every age class, year and site. 3. We examined a long‐term data series searching for temporal variation in the influence of habitat occupancy rate on the growth of brown trout Salmo trutta. We tested whether (i) mean cohort mass (mean mass of the cohort during the first 3 years of life) is affected by the occupancy rate experienced across a life span; and (ii) the occupancy rate experienced at different ages influenced mean body size. 4. We observed a consistent negative power relationship between average cohort mass and mean occupancy rate through a life span, indicating that stronger cohorts were related to a reduced growth, with likely consequences for individual fitness. 5. The effects of occupancy rate on size‐at‐age were mainly detected in the size attained at the second year of life, but they were because of the competition at different times. Thus, the level of competition varied through ontogeny, in some of the rivers affecting growth since the first year of life, whereas in most of the rivers the main effects on body size resulted from the competition during the second year of life. 6. Occupancy rate appears more appropriate than density for assessing the occurrence of habitat competition in freshwater fishes, since it encompasses the differences in quantity and quality of suitable habitat for each age class. 7. Our study highlights the importance of density‐dependent growth as a key process in the dynamics of brown trout populations, its temporal variation depending on the temporal changes of density and the variation of competition associated with the habitat capacity for each life stage.     

Elevational ranges of birds on a tropical montane gradient lag behind warming temperatures

Background

Species may respond to a warming climate by moving to higher latitudes or elevations. Shifts in geographic ranges are common responses in temperate regions. For the tropics, latitudinal temperature gradients are shallow; the only escape for species may be to move to higher elevations. There are few data to suggest that they do. Yet, the greatest loss of species from climate disruption may be for tropical montane species.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We repeat a historical transect in Peru and find an average upward shift of 49 m for 55 bird species over a 41 year interval. This shift is significantly upward, but also significantly smaller than the 152 m one expects from warming in the region. To estimate the expected shift in elevation we first determined the magnitude of warming in the locality from historical data. Then we used the temperature lapse rate to infer the required shift in altitude to compensate for warming. The range shifts in elevation were similar across different trophic guilds.

Conclusions

Endothermy may provide birds with some flexibility to temperature changes and allow them to move less than expected. Instead of being directly dependent on temperature, birds may be responding to gradual changes in the nature of the habitat or availability of food resources, and presence of competitors. If so, this has important implications for estimates of mountaintop extinctions from climate change.     

Temperature effects on fish production across a natural thermal gradient

Global warming is widely predicted to reduce the biomass production of top predators, or even result in species loss. Several exceptions to this expectation have been identified, however, and it is vital that we understand the underlying mechanisms if we are to improve our ability to predict future trends. Here, we used a natural warming experiment in Iceland and quantitative theoretical predictions to investigate the success of brown trout as top predators across a stream temperature gradient (4–25 °C). Brown trout are at the northern limit of their geographic distribution in this system, with ambient stream temperatures below their optimum for maximal growth, and above it in the warmest streams. A five‐month mark‐recapture study revealed that population abundance, biomass, growth rate, and production of trout all increased with stream temperature. We identified two mechanisms that contributed to these responses: (1) trout became more selective in their diet as stream temperature increased, feeding higher in the food web and increasing in trophic position; and (2) trophic transfer through the food web was more efficient in the warmer streams. We found little evidence to support a third potential mechanism: that external subsidies would play a more important role in the diet of trout with increasing stream temperature. Resource availability was also amplified through the trophic levels with warming, as predicted by metabolic theory in nutrient‐replete systems. These results highlight circumstances in which top predators can thrive in warmer environments and contribute to our knowledge of warming impacts on natural communities and ecosystem functioning.     

Seasonal weather patterns drive population vital rates and persistence in a stream fish

Climate change affects seasonal weather patterns, but little is known about the relative importance of seasonal weather patterns on animal population vital rates. Even when such information exists, data are typically only available from intensive fieldwork (e.g., mark–recapture studies) at a limited spatial extent. Here, we investigated effects of seasonal air temperature and precipitation (fall, winter, and spring) on survival and recruitment of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) at a broad spatial scale using a novel stage‐structured population model. The data were a 15‐year record of brook trout abundance from 72 sites distributed across a 170‐km‐long mountain range in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Population vital rates responded differently to weather and site‐specific conditions. Specifically, young‐of‐year survival was most strongly affected by spring temperature, adult survival by elevation and per‐capita recruitment by winter precipitation. Low fall precipitation and high winter precipitation, the latter of which is predicted to increase under climate change for the study region, had the strongest negative effects on trout populations. Simulations show that trout abundance could be greatly reduced under constant high winter precipitation, consistent with the expected effects of gravel‐scouring flows on eggs and newly hatched individuals. However, high‐elevation sites would be less vulnerable to local extinction because they supported higher adult survival. Furthermore, the majority of brook trout populations are projected to persist if high winter precipitation occurs only intermittently (≤3 of 5 years) due to density‐dependent recruitment. Variable drivers of vital rates should be commonly found in animal populations characterized by ontogenetic changes in habitat, and such stage‐structured effects may increase population persistence to changing climate by not affecting all life stages simultaneously. Yet, our results also demonstrate that weather patterns during seemingly less consequential seasons (e.g., winter precipitation) can have major impacts on animal population dynamics.     

Static habitat partitioning and dynamic selection by sympatric young Atlantic salmon and brown trout in south-west England streams

Direct underwater observation of micro‐habitat use by 1838 young Atlantic salmon Salmo salar [mean L_T 7·9 ± 3.1(s.d.) cm, range 3·19] and 1227 brown trout Salmo trutta (L_T 10·9 ± 5·0 cm, range 3·56) showed both species were selective in habitat use, with differences between species and fish size. Atlantic salmon and brown trout selected relatively narrow ranges for the two micro‐habitat variables snout water velocity and height above bottom, but with differences between size‐classes. The smaller fishes <7 cm held positions in slower water closer to the bottom. On a larger scale, the Atlantic salmon more often used shallower stream areas, compared with brown trout. The larger parr preferred the deeper stream areas. Atlantic salmon used higher and slightly more variable mean water velocities than brown trout. Substrata used by the two species were similar. Finer substrata, although variable, were selected at the snout position, and differences were pronounced between size‐classes. On a meso‐habitat scale, brown trout were more frequently observed in slow pool‐glide habitats, while young Atlantic salmon favoured the faster high‐gradient meso‐habitats. Small juveniles <7 cm of both species were observed most frequently in riffle‐chute habitats. Atlantic salmon and brown trout segregated with respect to use of habitat, but considerable niche overlap between species indicated competitive interactions. In particular, for small fishes <7 cm of the two species, there was almost complete niche overlap for use of water depth, while they segregated with respect to water velocity. Habitat suitability indices developed for both species for mean water velocity and water depth, tended to have their optimum at lower values compared with previous studies in larger streams, with Atlantic salmon parr in the small streams occupying the same habitat as favoured by brown trout in larger streams. The data indicate both species may be flexible in their habitat selection depending on habitat availability. Species‐specific habitat overlap between streams may be complete. However, between‐species habitat partitioning remains similar.     

Habitat utilization by sympatric arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus L. and brown trout Salmo trutta L. in Lake Atnsjø, south-east Norway

SUMMARY. 1. Habitat utilization, as well as inter- and intraspecific relations of different size groups of arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus (L.)) and brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) in Lake Atnsjø, south-east Norway, were investigated by analysing food and spatial niches from monthly benthic and pelagic gillnet catches during June-October 1985.
2. Small individuals (150–230 mm) of both arctic charr and brown trout occurred in shallow benthic habitats. However, they were spatially segregated as arctic charr dominated at depths of 5–15 m and brown trout at depths of 0–5 m.
3. Larger (>230 mm) arctic charr and brown trout coexisted in the pelagic zone. Both species occurred mainly in the uppermost 2-3 m of the pelagic, except in August, when arctic charr occurred at high densities throughout the 0–12 m depth interval. On this occasion, arctic charr were segregated in depth according to size, with significantly larger fish in the top 6 m. This was probably due to increased intraspecific competition for food.
4. The two species differed in food choice in both habitats, Arctic charr fed almost exclusively on zooplankton, whereas brown trout had a more variable diet, consisting of surface insects, zooplankton. aquatic insects and fish.
5. The data suggest that the uppermost pelagic was the more favourable habitat for both species. Large individuals having high social position occupied this habitat, whereas small individuals lived in benthic habitat where they were less vulnerable to agonistic behaviour from larger individuals and less exposed to predators. The more aggressive and dominant brown trout occupied the more rewarding part of the benthic habitat.     

Ecosystem response to earlier ice break‐up date: Climate‐driven changes to water temperature,lake‐habitat‐specific production,and trout habitat and resource use

Climate warming has yielded earlier ice break‐up dates in recent decades for lakes leading to water temperature increases, altered habitat, and both increases and decreases to ecosystem productivity. Within lakes, the effect of climate warming on secondary production in littoral and pelagic habitats remains unclear. The intersection of changing habitat productivity and warming water temperatures on salmonids is important for understanding how climate warming will impact mountain ecosystems. We develop and test a conceptual model that expresses how earlier ice break‐up dates influence within lake habitat production, water temperatures and the habitat utilized by, resources obtained and behavior of salmonids in a mountain lake. We measured zoobenthic and zooplankton production from the littoral and pelagic habitats, thermal conditions, and the habitat use, resource use, and fitness of Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We show that earlier ice break‐up conditions created a "resource‐rich" littoral–benthic habitat with increases in zoobenthic production compared to the pelagic habitat which decreased in zooplankton production. Despite the increases in littoral–benthic food resources, trout did not utilize littoral habitat or zoobenthic resources due to longer durations of warm water temperatures in the littoral zone. In addition, 87% of their resources were supported by the pelagic habitat during periods with earlier ice break‐up when pelagic resources were least abundant. The decreased reliance on littoral–benthic resources during earlier ice break‐up caused reduced fitness (mean reduction of 12 g) to trout. Our data show that changes to ice break‐up drive multi‐directional results for resource production within lake habitats and increase the duration of warmer water temperatures in food‐rich littoral habitats. The increased duration of warmer littoral water temperatures reduces the use of energetically efficient habitats culminating in decreased trout fitness.     

Habitat degradation and trout stocking can reinforce the impact of flash floods on headwater specialist Alpine bullhead Cottus poecilopus – A case study from the Carpathian Mountains

In freshwater streams, flooding is a typical source of natural disturbance that plays a key role in the dynamics of animal populations and communities. However, habitat degradation and fish stocking might increase the severity of its impact. We tested the effects of a flash flood on the abundance of three size classes of headwater dwelling Alpine bullhead, Cottus poecilopus, in the streams of the Carpathian Mountains in the Czech Republic, that are stocked with hatchery‐reared brown trout, Salmo trutta. We showed that the overall abundance of Alpine bullhead was highest at the sites with the least degraded habitat (i.e., natural habitat) and we caught almost no Alpine bullhead at the sites with the most degraded habitat. The flash flood had a strong negative effect on the abundance of the largest individuals of Alpine bullhead. Abundance of small and medium size Alpine bullhead was negatively affected by the abundance of adult stocked brown trout before as well as after the flash flood. However, negative effect of adult brown trout abundance on abundance of large Alpine bullhead was not significant before the flash flood, and it became significant after the flash flood. This could indicate an accumulation of negative impacts of trout stocking and flash flood on this size class. Overall, our results suggest that stocking of hatchery trout and habitat degradation can reinforce the impact of flash floods on the population of Alpine bullhead in the streams of the Carpathian Mountains.     

The role of climate in constraining the elevational range of the Water Pipit Anthus spinoletta in an alpine environment

The study of determinants of species’ ranges along elevational gradients may shed light on the ecological factors that constrain their distribution and fundamental niche. We analysed the influence of the climate, habitat at different spatial scales and topography on Water Pipit Anthus spinoletta density in mountain landscapes across a wide elevational gradient. Variables associated with spring and annual temperature values were the main determinants of Water Pipit density, especially at the lower distributional limit (700–1200 m asl), where the species avoided warmer areas. At high‐elevation sites (1600–2300 m asl), the main constraint to the species’ distribution was habitat structure and composition, with steep rocky areas being avoided. Highest densities were found in open but locally heterogeneous habitat at intermediate to high elevations, and the habitat variables that played a major role at the landscape scale were medium‐tall shrublands and woodlands, but with contrasting effects depending on elevation. These results suggest that different sets of variables may constrain density, and effects may differ at the upper and lower elevational limits, with climate being more important at lower elevations and local habitat more important at higher elevations. Ongoing global warming is likely to cause an upward shift in range boundaries of alpine species, but local habitat features could constrain the upward expansion, resulting in range contractions accompanying range shift.     

Topographically controlled thermal‐habitat differentiation buffers alpine plant diversity against climate warming

Aim We aim to: (1) explore thermal habitat preferences in alpine plant species across mosaics of topographically controlled micro‐habitats; (2) test the predictive value of so‐called ‘indicator values’; and (3) quantify the shift in micro‐habitat conditions under the influence of climate warming. Location Alpine vegetation 2200–2800 m a.s.l., Swiss central Alps. Methods High‐resolution infra‐red thermometry and large numbers of small data loggers were used to assess the spatial and temporal variation of plant‐surface and ground temperatures as well as snow‐melt patterns for 889 plots distributed across three alpine slopes of contrasting exposure. These environmental data were then correlated with Landolt indicator values for temperature preferences of different plant species and vegetation units. By simulating a uniform 2 K warming we estimated the changes in abundance of micro‐habitat temperatures within the study area. Results Within the study area we observed a substantial variation between micro‐habitats in seasonal mean soil temperature (ΔT = 7.2 K), surface temperature (ΔT = 10.5 K) and season length (>32 days). Plant species with low indicator values for temperature (plants commonly found in cool habitats) grew in significantly colder micro‐habitats than plants with higher indicator values found on the same slope. A 2 K warming will lead to the loss of the coldest habitats (3% of current area), 75% of the current thermal micro‐habitats will be reduced in abundance (crowding effect) and 22% will become more abundant. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate that the topographically induced mosaics of micro‐climatic conditions in an alpine landscape are associated with local plant species distribution. Semi‐quantitative plant species indicator values based on expert knowledge and aggregated to community means match measured thermal habitat conditions. Metre‐scale thermal contrasts significantly exceed IPCC warming projections for the next 100 years. The data presented here thus indicate a great risk of overestimating alpine habitat losses in isotherm‐based model scenarios. While all but the species depending on the very coldest micro‐habitats will find thermally suitable ‘escape’ habitats within short distances, there will be enhanced competition for those cooler places on a given slope in an alpine climate that is 2 K warmer. Yet, due to their topographic variability, alpine landscapes are likely to be safer places for most species than lowland terrain in a warming world.     

The impact of an introduced predator on a threatened galaxiid fish is reduced by the availability of complex habitats

1. The availability of complex habitats such as macrophytes may be vital in determining the outcomes of interactions between introduced predators and native prey. Introduced brown trout (Salmo trutta) have impacted numerous small native freshwater fishes in the southern hemisphere, but the potential role of complex habitats in determining the direct outcomes of brown trout – native fish interactions has not been experimentally evaluated. 2. An in‐lake enclosure experiment was used to evaluate the importance of structurally complex habitats in affecting the direct impacts of brown trout on a threatened galaxiid fish. Five Galaxias auratus and a single brown trout were added to enclosures containing one of three different habitat types (artificial macrophytes, rocks and bare silt substrate). The experiment also had control enclosures without brown trout. Habitat‐dependence of predation risk was assessed by analysis of G. auratus losses to predation, and stomach contents of remaining fish were analysed to determine if brown trout directly affect the feeding of G. auratus and whether this is also habitat‐dependent. 3. Predation risk of G. auratus differed significantly between habitat types, with the highest mortality in enclosures with only bare silt substrate and the lowest in enclosures containing artificial macrophytes. This result highlights the importance of availability of complex habitats for trout – native fish interactions and suggests that increasing habitat degradation and loss in fresh waters may exacerbate the direct impacts of introduced predators. 4. Stomach contents analyses were restricted to fish in enclosures with artificial macrophytes and rocks, as most fish were consumed in enclosures with brown trout and only bare silt substrate. These analyses suggest that brown trout do not directly affect the feeding of G. auratus in complex habitats, but it is still unknown whether its feeding is reduced if complex habitats are unavailable.     

Recruitment variation in a stream galaxiid fish: multiple influences on fry dynamics in a heterogeneous environment

1. The relative importance of density‐dependent and density‐independent processes in explaining fluctuations in natural populations has been widely debated. In particular, the importance of larval supply and whether it may control the type of regulatory processes a population experiences has proved contentious. 2. Using surveys and field experiments conducted in streams in Canterbury, New Zealand, we investigated how variation in the survival of non‐migratory Galaxias vulgaris fry was affected by density‐dependent and density‐independent processes and how this variation influenced recruitment dynamics. 3. Fry populations with high settlement densities experienced a 70–80% reduction in population size from density‐related mortality during the first fourteen days after peak settlement but thereafter the influence of density‐dependent processes on fry was weak. The impact of environmental conditions on fry populations was dependent on fry size and the magnitude of the perturbation, such that flooding effects on fry survival were most severe when fry were small. 4. In streams not affected by flooding, the size and density of introduced trout (Salmo trutta and Oncorhynchus mykiss) were the most significant factors determining the abundance of eventual recruits. A field experiment manipulating brown trout access to fry populations revealed that trout as small as 110 mm may be capable of greatly reducing and possibly preventing galaxiid recruitment. 5. Overall, the results indicated density‐dependent population regulation was only possible at sites with high native fish densities because trout were likely to be suppressing the number of potential recruits at sites with low native fish numbers. Whilst density‐dependent processes had a strong effect on fry survival following the period of peak fry abundance, density‐independent processes associated with flow and predatory trout influences on fry survival largely determined recruitment variability among galaxiid populations. Focusing conservation efforts on improving habitat to increase fry retention and reducing the impacts of trout on galaxiids would ensure more native fish populations reached their potential abundance.     

Global warming and positive fitness response in mountain populations of common lizards Lacerta vivipara

Recent global warming threatens many species and has already caused population‐ and species‐level extinctions. In particular, high risks of extinction are expected for isolated populations of species with low dispersal abilities. These predictions rely on widely used ‘climatic envelope’ models, while individual responses, the ultimate driver of a species response to climate change, have been most often neglected. Here, we report on some changes in life‐history traits of a dispersal‐limited reptile species (a poorly studied taxa) living in isolated populations. Using long‐term data on common lizards collected in southern France, we show that individual body size dramatically increased in all the four populations studied over the past 18 years. This increase in body size in all age classes appeared related to a concomitant increase in temperature experienced during the first month of life (August). Daily maximum temperature in August increased by 2.2°C and yearling snout‐vent‐length increased by about 28%. As a result, adult female body size increased markedly, and, as fecundity is strongly dependent on female body size, clutch size and total reproductive output also increased. For one population where capture–recapture data were available, adult survival was positively related to May temperature. All fitness components investigated therefore responded positively to the increase in temperature, such that it might be concluded that the common lizard has been advantaged by the shift in temperature. We contrast these short‐term results with the long‐term habitat‐based prediction that these populations located close to mountain tops on the southern margin of the species range should be unable to cope with the alteration of their habitat. To achieve a better prediction of a species persistence, one will probably need to combine both habitat and individual‐based approaches.     

Assessing the suitable habitat for reintroduction of brown trout (Salmo trutta forma fario) in a lowland river: A modeling approach

Huge efforts have been made during the past decades to improve the water quality and to restore the physical habitat of rivers and streams in western Europe. This has led to an improvement in biological water quality and an increase in fish stocks in many countries. However, several rheophilic fish species such as brown trout are still categorized as vulnerable in lowland streams in Flanders (Belgium). In order to support cost‐efficient restoration programs, habitat suitability modeling can be used. In this study, we developed an ensemble of habitat suitability models using metaheuristic algorithms to explore the importance of a large number of environmental variables, including chemical, physical, and hydromorphological characteristics to determine the suitable habitat for reintroduction of brown trout in the Zwalm River basin (Flanders, Belgium), which is included in the Habitats Directive. Mean stream velocity, water temperature, hiding opportunities, and presence of pools or riffles were identified as the most important variables determining the habitat suitability. Brown trout mainly preferred streams with a relatively high mean reach stream velocity (0.2–1 m/s), a low water temperature (7–15°C), and the presence of pools. The ensemble of models indicated that most of the tributaries and headwaters were suitable for the species. Synthesis and applications. Our results indicate that this modeling approach can be used to support river management, not only for brown trout but also for other species in similar geographical regions. Specifically for the Zwalm River basin, future restoration of the physical habitat, removal of the remaining migration barriers and the development of suitable spawning grounds could promote the successful restoration of brown trout.     

Timing matters: species‐specific interactions between spawning time,substrate quality,and recruitment success in three salmonid species

Substratum quality and oxygen supply to the interstitial zone are crucial for the reproductive success of salmonid fishes. At present, degradation of spawning grounds due to fine sediment deposition and colmation are recognized as main factors for reproductive failure. In addition, changes in water temperatures due to climate change, damming, and cooling water inlets are predicted to reduce hatching success. We tested the hypothesis that the biological effects of habitat degradation depend strongly on the species‐specific spawning seasons and life‐history strategies (e.g., fall‐ vs. spring‐spawners, migratory vs. resident species) and assessed temperature as an important species‐specific factor for hatching success within river substratum. We studied the species‐specific differences in their responses to such disturbances using egg‐to‐fry survival of Danube Salmon (Hucho hucho), resident brown trout (Salmo trutta fario), and migratory brown trout (Salmo trutta lacustris) as biological endpoint. The egg incubation and hatching success of the salmonids and their dependence on temperature and stream substratum quality were compared. Hatching rates of Danube salmon were lower than of brown trout, probably due to higher oxygen demands and increased interstitial respiration in spring. Increases in maximum water temperature reduced hatching rates of resident and migratory brown trout (both fall‐spawners) but were positively correlated with hatching rates of Danube salmon (a spring‐spawner). Significantly longer incubation periods of resident and migratory brown trout coincided with relatively low stream substratum quality at the end of the egg incubation. Danube salmon seem to avoid low oxygen concentrations in the hyporheic zone by faster egg development favored by higher water temperatures. Consequently, the prediction of effects of temperature changes and altered stream substratum properties on gravel‐spawning fishes and biological communities should consider the observed species‐specific variances in life‐history strategies to increase conservation success.