共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
BackgroundNational life table is commonly used for estimating cancer net survival. However, the national life table does not reflect condition of people in local area accurately, because there are disparities in cancer mortality rates among the local area in many cases. We investigated magnitude of difference in cancer net survival using the local area in Japan and Japanese life tables.MethodsWe analyzed data from 32,942 cancer patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2012 in Aomori prefecture, Japan. Expected survival rates in Aomori (ESA) and Japan (ESJ) were estimated based on the life table of each area. Five-year net survival rates using ESA and the ESJ were estimated using the Pohar-Perme method.ResultsThe difference between net survival rates using the ESA (NSA) and the ESJ (NSJ) were larger than in men (0.3-3.0%) than in women (0.1-0.8%). The largest difference in the net survival rate was observed in prostate cancer patients, because the difference in the expected survival in oldest old men was remarkable.ConclusionTwo factors affected the difference in the net survival rates resulting from the sensitivity analysis. The difference was larger (1) among older patients or (2) with a longer observation period (person-years). 相似文献
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We propose a semiparametric method for the analysis of masked-cause failure data that are also subject to a cure. We present estimators for the failure time distribution, the cure rate, and the covariate effect on each of these, assuming a proportional hazards cure model for the time to event of interest and we use the expectation-maximization algorithm to conduct the likelihood maximization. The method is applied to data from a breast cancer clinical trial. 相似文献
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H. Charvat N. Bossard L. Daubisse F. Binder A. Belot L. Remontet 《Cancer epidemiology》2013,37(6):857-863
BackgroundNet survival is the survival that would be observed if cancer were the only possible cause of death. Although it is an important epidemiological tool allowing temporal or geographical comparisons, it cannot inform on the “crude” probability of death of cancer patients; i.e., when taking into account other possible causes of deaths.MethodsIn this work, we provide estimates of the crude probabilities of death from cancer and from other causes as well as the probability of being alive up to ten years after cancer diagnosis according to the age and year of diagnosis. Based on a flexible excess hazard model providing unbiased estimates of net survival, our methodology avoids the pitfalls associated with the use of the cause of death. We used data from FRANCIM, the French network of cancer registries, and studied five common cancer sites: head and neck, breast, prostate, lung, and colorectal cancers.ResultsFor breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers, the impact of the other causes on the total probability of death increased with the age at diagnosis whereas it remained negligible for lung and head and neck cancers whatever the age. For breast, prostate, and colorectal cancer, the more recently was the cancer diagnosed, the less was the probability of death from cancer.ConclusionThe crude probability of death is an intuitive concept that may prove particularly useful in choosing an appropriate treatment, or refining the indication of a screening strategy by allowing the clinician to estimate the proportion of cancer patients who will die specifically from cancer. 相似文献
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In therapy of rapidly fatal diseases, early treatment efficacy often is characterized by an event, "response," which is observed relatively quickly. Since the risk of death decreases at the time of response, it is desirable not only to achieve a response, but to do so as rapidly as possible. We propose a Bayesian method for comparing treatments in this setting based on a competing risks model for response and death without response. Treatment effect is characterized by a two-dimensional parameter consisting of the probability of response within a specified time and the mean time to response. Several target parameter pairs are elicited from the physician so that, for a reference covariate vector, all elicited pairs embody the same improvement in treatment efficacy compared to a fixed standard. A curve is fit to the elicited pairs and used to determine a two-dimensional parameter set in which a new treatment is considered superior to the standard. Posterior probabilities of this set are used to construct rules for the treatment comparison and safety monitoring. The method is illustrated by a randomized trial comparing two cord blood transplantation methods. 相似文献
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T B Gage 《American journal of physical anthropology》1988,76(4):429-441
A five-parameter competing hazard model of the age pattern of mortality is described, and methods of fitting it to survivorship, death rate, and age structure data are developed and presented. The methods are then applied to published life table and census data to construct life tables for a Late Woodland population, a Christian period Nubian population, and the Yanomama. The advantage of this approach over the use of model life tables is that the hazard model facilitates life-table construction without imposing a particular age pattern of mortality on the data. This development makes it possible to use anthropological data to extend the study of human variation in mortality patterns to small populations. 相似文献
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Hsieh JJ 《Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift》1991,33(2):143-162
"In this paper we lay the foundation of life table construction by unifying the existing life table methods. We also present a new method of constructing current (period) abridged life tables.... The development includes (1) a careful formulation and computation of age-specific death rates, (2) derivation of a new set of formulas for computing the survivorship function from the observed age-specific death rates and populations, (3) estimation of the main life table functions by spline interpolation, integration and differentiation, and (4) use of a quadratic and a Gompertz function to close the life table.... The method is illustrated with construction of abridged life tables using Canadian data." 相似文献
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《Saudi Journal of Biological Sciences》2019,26(7):1661-1667
Different temperature zones have significant impact on the population dynamics of Plutella xylostella. Effective management of P. xylostella requires the knowledge of temperature tolerance by different life stages. In the current study, fitness parameters of diamondback moth were reported by using age-stage, two-sex life table traits at four constant temperatures (15, 20, 25 and 30 °C). The life cycle of P. xylostella was significantly longer at 15 °C. The 20 °C level of temperature was found optimal for fecundity, gross reproductive rate (51.74 offspring) and net reproductive rate (44.35 offspring per individual). The adult pre-oviposition period was statistically at par at all four level of temperatures. However, the survival was maximum at 20 °C as compared to other three temperature ranges. Based on the current study, it was concluded that temperature has a great role in population build-up of P. xylostella and effective management tactics should be applied to prevent significant damage to cabbage and other cruciferous crops when the temperature in the field is near 20 °C. 相似文献
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Validation of the alternating conditional estimation algorithm for estimation of flexible extensions of Cox's proportional hazards model with nonlinear constraints on the parameters 下载免费PDF全文
Willy Wynant Michal Abrahamowicz 《Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift》2016,58(6):1445-1464
Standard optimization algorithms for maximizing likelihood may not be applicable to the estimation of those flexible multivariable models that are nonlinear in their parameters. For applications where the model's structure permits separating estimation of mutually exclusive subsets of parameters into distinct steps, we propose the alternating conditional estimation (ACE) algorithm. We validate the algorithm, in simulations, for estimation of two flexible extensions of Cox's proportional hazards model where the standard maximum partial likelihood estimation does not apply, with simultaneous modeling of (1) nonlinear and time‐dependent effects of continuous covariates on the hazard, and (2) nonlinear interaction and main effects of the same variable. We also apply the algorithm in real‐life analyses to estimate nonlinear and time‐dependent effects of prognostic factors for mortality in colon cancer. Analyses of both simulated and real‐life data illustrate good statistical properties of the ACE algorithm and its ability to yield new potentially useful insights about the data structure. 相似文献
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Summary . In this article, we consider the setting where the event of interest can occur repeatedly for the same subject (i.e., a recurrent event; e.g., hospitalization) and may be stopped permanently by a terminating event (e.g., death). Among the different ways to model recurrent/terminal event data, the marginal mean (i.e., averaging over the survival distribution) is of primary interest from a public health or health economics perspective. Often, the difference between treatment-specific recurrent event means will not be constant over time, particularly when treatment-specific differences in survival exist. In such cases, it makes more sense to quantify treatment effect based on the cumulative difference in the recurrent event means, as opposed to the instantaneous difference in the rates. We propose a method that compares treatments by separately estimating the survival probabilities and recurrent event rates given survival, then integrating to get the mean number of events. The proposed method combines an additive model for the conditional recurrent event rate and a proportional hazards model for the terminating event hazard. The treatment effects on survival and on recurrent event rate among survivors are estimated in constructing our measure and explain the mechanism generating the difference under study. The example that motivates this research is the repeated occurrence of hospitalization among kidney transplant recipients, where the effect of expanded criteria donor (ECD) compared to non-ECD kidney transplantation on the mean number of hospitalizations is of interest. 相似文献
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Survival data are often modelled by the Cox proportional hazards model, which assumes that covariate effects are constant over time. In recent years however, several new approaches have been suggested which allow covariate effects to vary with time. Non-proportional hazard functions, with covariate effects changing dynamically, can be fitted using penalised spline (P-spline) smoothing. By utilising the link between P-spline smoothing and generalised linear mixed models, the smoothing parameters steering the amount of smoothing can be selected. A hybrid routine, combining the mixed model approach with a classical Akaike criterion, is suggested. This approach is evaluated with simulations and applied to data from the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study. 相似文献
12.
Hui Zhao Qiwei Wu Peter B. Gilbert Ying Q. Chen Jianguo Sun 《Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift》2020,62(5):1176-1191
This paper discusses regression analysis of the failure time data arising from case-cohort periodic follow-up studies, and one feature of such data, which makes their analysis much more difficult, is that they are usually interval-censored rather than right-censored. Although some methods have been developed for general failure time data, there does not seem to exist an established procedure for the situation considered here. To address the problem, we present a semiparametric regularized procedure and develop a simple algorithm for the implementation of the proposed method. In addition, unlike some existing procedures for similar situations, the proposed procedure is shown to have the oracle property, and an extensive simulation is conducted and it suggests that the presented approach seems to work well for practical situations. The method is applied to an HIV vaccine trial that motivated this study. 相似文献
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Summary A non-clustering, FORTRAN IV computer program package for the preparation of phytosociological tables is described and examples of results are given. The advantages of being able to prepare camera-ready tables by this means are discussed.We thank Mr. D. van Eyssen for writing some of the computer programs and assisting with the processing. 相似文献
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In many clinical trials, multiple time‐to‐event endpoints including the primary endpoint (e.g., time to death) and secondary endpoints (e.g., progression‐related endpoints) are commonly used to determine treatment efficacy. These endpoints are often biologically related. This work is motivated by a study of bone marrow transplant (BMT) for leukemia patients, who may experience the acute graft‐versus‐host disease (GVHD), relapse of leukemia, and death after an allogeneic BMT. The acute GVHD is associated with the relapse free survival, and both the acute GVHD and relapse of leukemia are intermediate nonterminal events subject to dependent censoring by the informative terminal event death, but not vice versa, giving rise to survival data that are subject to two sets of semi‐competing risks. It is important to assess the impacts of prognostic factors on these three time‐to‐event endpoints. We propose a novel statistical approach that jointly models such data via a pair of copulas to account for multiple dependence structures, while the marginal distribution of each endpoint is formulated by a Cox proportional hazards model. We develop an estimation procedure based on pseudo‐likelihood and carry out simulation studies to examine the performance of the proposed method in finite samples. The practical utility of the proposed method is further illustrated with data from the motivating example. 相似文献
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Ézio Marques da Silva Nilson Rodrigues-Silva Carla do Carmo Milagres Leandro Bacci Marcelo Coutinho Picanço 《Biocontrol Science and Technology》2017,27(4):525-538
Life table studies allow for a better understanding of mortality factors against insect pests. It assesses each mortality factor and its parameters in population suppression. Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) is one of the major pests of solanaceous crops in South America. The background information provided by life table studies might be used for developing management strategies for controlling N. elegantalis. Thus, the aim of this study was to identify and quantify the mortality factors of N. elegantalis in tomato cultivation by using life tables. The results were obtained from 64 ecological life tables. The mortality factors for eggs, larvae and pupae were due to rain, fruit drop, predation, parasitism and unviability caused by physiological disorder and diseases. The percentage of total death for eggs, larvae and pupae were 64.2%, 24.9% and 5.93%, respectively. The highest rates of mortality were caused by predation and parasitism. Thus, mortality of N. elegantalis caused by natural enemies might be used as a basis for determining which methods are better for controlling N. elegantalis while having the lowest possible impact on its natural enemies. 相似文献
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Ebenus pinnata Aiton occurs in few localities along the Mediterranean coast of North Africa from Libya to Morocco. In Libya this species grows in few places of the northwestern coastal mountain escarpment, where it is rarely recorded. The study site was located one in Msallata National Park area, Libya, at an altitude of 200–300 m. Three growth types were recognized in E. pinnata: ephemeral (E), modular (M), and coppiced (C) life-forms (functional types). The intra-population variations in the plant's functional types are interpreted as a plasticity mechanism for survival and existence under the given soil texture and micronutrient heterogeneity. 相似文献
18.
Suman DS Tikar SN Mendki MJ Sukumaran D Agrawal OP Parashar BD Prakash S 《Medical and veterinary entomology》2011,25(3):276-288
Variations in the life tables and other biological attributes of four strains of Culex quinquefasciatus Say (Diptera: Culicidae) from geographically isolated regions of India that had been reared to the fifth generation in the laboratory were assessed under a standardized rearing regime under constant laboratory conditions. Two strains from arid habitats [Jodhpur (JD) and Bikaner (BKN)], one from a semi-arid inland habitat [Bathinda (BTH)], one from a semi-arid coastal habitat [Jamnagar (JMN)] and a standard laboratory strain (LAB) were compared. Horizontal life-table parameters were measured for each strain. Egg mortality ranged from 4.4% (JD and BTH) to 19.5% (BKN). The lowest rate of adult emergence and highest female : male ratio were found in BKN, and the highest rate of adult emergence and lowest female : male ratio were recorded in BTH. The egg-hatching period was longest in BTH and shortest in LAB. The duration from oviposition to adult emergence was longest in JD and shortest in LAB. Females lived longer than males in all strains. The net reproductive rates (R(0) ) of all field-derived strains (122.9-162.2) differed significantly between strains and were significantly greater than that of LAB (107.6). Similarly, both the intrinsic rate of increase (r(m) ) and finite rate of increase (λ) were found to be lower in LAB than in the field strains, but the mean generation time (T) and doubling time (DT) were longest in LAB. For several life-table attributes, JD and BTH clustered together and were more similar to JMN than to BKN and LAB. The results indicate that BTH, BKN and JD can be characterized as r-strategists, more so than JMN. Overall fecundity increased with age. Differences in annual temperature ranges and mean annual rainfall between locations were positively correlated (r = 0.46-0.97) with egg production, female life expectancy, R(0) , r(m) , λ and T. The results suggest that strains of Cx. quinquefasciatus from different geographical areas with contrasting habitats vary in their survival and reproductive strategies accordingly. 相似文献
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Parameters of a Middle Pleistocene human population such as the expected length of the female reproductive period (E(Y)), the expected interbirth interval (E(X)), the survival rate (tau) for females after the expected reproductive period, the rate (phi(2)) of women who, given that they reach first birth, do not survive to the end of the expected reproductive period, and the female infant plus juvenile mortality rate (phi(1)) have been assessed from a probabilistic standpoint provided that such a population were stationary. The hominid sample studied, the Sima de los Huesos (SH) cave site, Sierra de Atapuerca (Spain), is the most exhaustive human fossil sample currently available. Results suggest that the Atapuerca (SH) sample can derive from a stationary population. Further, in the case that the expected reproductive period ends between 37 and 40 yr of age, then 24 less, similarE(Y) less, similar27 yr, E(X)=3 yr, 0.224=tau=0.246,0.49相似文献
20.
Abstract Age‐stage, two‐sex life tables of the melon fly, Bactrocera cucurbitae (Coquillett) (Diptera: Tephritidae), reared on cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.), sponge gourd (Luffa cylindrica Roem) and a carrot medium (mashed Daucus carota L. mixed with sucrose and yeast hydrolysate) were constructed under laboratory conditions at 25 ± 1°C, 65%± 0.5% relative humidity, and a photoperiod 12 : 12 h (L : D). The intrinsic rates of increase of B. cucurbitae were 0.144 6, 0.141 2 and 0.068 8 days on cucumber, sponge gourd, and carrot medium, respectively. The highest net reproduction rate was 172 offspring per fly reared on sponge gourd. The mean generation times of B. cucurbitae ranged from 34 days reared on cucumber to 56 days reared on carrot medium. The life history raw data was analyzed using the traditional female age‐specific life table and compared to results obtained using the age‐stage, two‐sex life table. When the age‐specific female life table is applied to an age‐stage‐structured two‐sex population, survival and fecundity curves will be improperly manipulated due to an inability to include variation in preadult development time. We discussed different interpretations of the relationship between the net reproductive rate and the intrinsic rate of increase to clarify possible misunderstanding in the literature. 相似文献