Evaluation of the results of animal studies with a scheme of serologic reactions according to a table of standards]

The authors suggest a method of processing of the data of examination of the animals in the system of serological reactions for the purpose of diagnosis of epizootic situations in the natural plague foci. Positive results are recorded in a table in the form of a grid whose cells correspond to all possible variants of the two reaction titres. The table is divided into 6 sections into which the results differing by the correlation and the absolute reaction titres (the standard grid) are placed. The frequency of reactions is determined by the grid sections in the regions in which the character of the epizootic development in nature was studied by bacteriological examination of the animals. The diagnostic scale is drawn by the results of such standard observations. The trial of the suggested method was carried out in the regions of plague epizootics among the Rhombomys optimus Licht. in the Lowland Kara-Kum; it was possible to differentiate the signs of epizootic situations there in greater detail than by the methods suggested earlier.     

Field evaluation of imidacloprid as a systemic approach to flea control in black‐tailed prairie dogs,Cynomys ludovicianus

Epizootic outbreaks of sylvatic plague have dramatically influenced prairie dog (Cynomys sp.) populations across North America. While a great deal of debate surrounds the cause and persistence of plague, flea control can stop the spread of plague epizootic outbreaks and even increase prairie dog survival under non‐epizootic conditions. We investigated a newly‐developed imidacloprid‐treated grain bait that could potentially reduce flea infestations and mitigate the effects of plague on black‐tailed prairie dogs (C. ludovicianus). We used a study design involving randomly assigned experimental and control study plots to assess the effectiveness of the systemic flea control product. We observed a significant difference in flea prevalence and abundance between experimental and control sites on three of the four sites treated with a single application of imidacloprid‐treated grain bait for up to 90 days post‐treatment. We observed an even greater reduction in flea infestations following the double application of treatment bait on two of three additional experimental sites. While we were unable to reduce flea infestations to the extent reported for more commonly used topical insecticides containing deltamethrin, imidacloprid might still be effective at reducing the risk of plague and halting epizootics. In addition, this systemic product can be more rapidly applied than topical insecticides, providing managers with a tool to quickly reduce flea infestations. Future research is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of different application timing and rates, the utility of the product in limiting plague, and the potential effects on non‐target species that might also consume the treated bait.     

Exposure of small rodents to plague during epizootics in black-tailed prairie dogs

Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, causes die-offs of colonies of prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus). It has been argued that other small rodents are reservoirs for plague, spreading disease during epizootics and maintaining the pathogen in the absence of prairie dogs; yet there is little empirical support for distinct enzootic and epizootic cycles. Between 2004 and 2006, we collected blood from small rodents captured in colonies in northern Colorado before, during, and for up to 2 yr after prairie dog epizootics. We screened 1,603 blood samples for antibodies to Y. pestis, using passive hemagglutination and inhibition tests, and for a subset of samples we cultured blood for the bacterium itself. Of the four species of rodents that were common in colonies, the northern grasshopper mouse (Onychomys leucogaster) was the only species with consistent evidence of plague infection during epizootics, with 11.1-23.1% of mice seropositive for antibody to Y. pestis during these events. Seropositive grasshopper mice, thirteen-lined ground squirrels (Spermophilus tridecemlineatus), and deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) were captured the year following epizootics. The appearance of antibodies to Y. pestis in grasshopper mice coincided with periods of high prairie dog mortality; subsequently, antibody prevalence rates declined, with no seropositive individuals captured 2 yr after epizootics. We did not detect plague in any rodents off of colonies, or on colonies prior to epizootics, and found no evidence of persistent Y. pestis infection in blood cultures. Our results suggest that grasshopper mice could be involved in epizootic spread of Y. pestis, and possibly, serve as a short-term reservoir for plague, but provide no evidence that the grasshopper mouse or any small rodent acts as a long-term, enzootic host for Y. pestis in prairie dog colonies.     

Population‐level influence of a recurring disease on a long‐lived wildlife host

Despite a heightened interest regarding the role of infectious diseases in wildlife conservation, few studies have explicitly addressed the impacts of chronic, persistent diseases on long‐term host population dynamics. Using mycoplasmal upper respiratory tract disease (URTD) within natural gopher tortoise Gopherus polyphemus populations as a model system, we investigated the influence of chronic recurring disease epizootics on host population dynamics and persistence using matrix population models and Markov chain models for temporally autocorrelated environments. By treating epizootics as a form of environmental stochasticity, we evaluated host population dynamics across varying levels of outbreak duration (ρ), outbreak recurrence (f), and disease‐induced mortality (μ). Baseline results indicated a declining growth rate (λ) for populations under unexposed or enzootic conditions (λ_Enzootic= 0.903, 95% CI: 0.765–1.04), and a median time to quasi‐extinction of 29 years (range: 28–30 years). Under recurring epizootics, stochastic growth rates overlapped with baseline growth rates, and ranged between 0.838–0.902. Median quasi‐extinction times under recurring epizootics also overlapped for most scenarios with those of baseline conditions, and ranged between 18–29 years, with both metrics decreasing as a function of f and μ. Overall, baseline (enzootic) conditions had a greater impact on λ than epizootic conditions, and demographic vital rates were proportionately more influential on λ than disease‐ or outbreak‐associated parameters. Lower‐level elasticities revealed that, among disease‐ and outbreak‐associated parameters, increases in μ, force of infection (φ), and f negatively influenced λ. The impact of disease on host population dynamics depended primarily on how often a population underwent an epizootic state, rather than how long the epizootic persisted within the exposed population. The modeling framework presented in this paper could be widely applied to a range of wildlife disease systems in which hosts suffer from persistent recurring diseases.     

Colorado animal‐based plague surveillance systems: relationships between targeted animal species and prediction efficacy of areas at risk for humans

Human plague risks (Yersinia pestis infection) are greatest when epizootics cause high mortality among this bacterium's natural rodent hosts. Therefore, health departments in plague‐endemic areas commonly establish animal‐based surveillance programs to monitor Y. pestis infection among plague hosts and vectors. The primary objectives of our study were to determine whether passive animal‐based plague surveillance samples collected in Colorado from 1991 to 2005 were sampled from high human plague risk areas and whether these samples provided information useful for predicting human plague case locations. By comparing locations of plague‐positive animal samples with a previously constructed GIS‐based plague risk model, we determined that the majority of plague‐positive Gunnison's prairie dogs (100%) and non‐prairie dog sciurids (85.82%), and moderately high percentages of sigmodontine rodents (71.4%), domestic cats (69.3%), coyotes (62.9%), and domestic dogs (62.5%) were recovered within 1 km of the nearest area posing high peridomestic risk to humans. In contrast, the majority of white‐tailed prairie dog (66.7%), leporid (cottontailed and jack rabbits) (71.4%), and black‐tailed prairie dog (93.0%) samples originated more than 1 km from the nearest human risk habitat. Plague‐positive animals or their fleas were rarely (one of 19 cases) collected within 2 km of a case exposure site during the 24 months preceding the dates of illness onset for these cases. Low spatial accuracy for identifying epizootic activity prior to human plague cases suggested that other mammalian species or their fleas are likely more important sources of human infection in high plague risk areas. To address this issue, epidemiological observations and multi‐locus variable number tandem repeat analyses (MLVA) were used to preliminarily identify chipmunks as an under‐sampled, but potentially important, species for human plague risk in Colorado.     

A plague epizootic in the white-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys leucurus) of Meeteetse, Wyoming

Surveillance for sylvatic plague (Yersinia pestis) was conducted near Meeteetse, Wyoming (USA) from 24 May to 14 June 1985. Ten species of fleas were collected from white-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys leucurus), and from their burrows and associated rodents. Five of these flea species and two adult prairie dogs were positive for plague. The progression of this plague epizootic appeared to be slower and the intensity was less than in previous epizootics in other prairie dog colonies. The plague epizootic occurred within the only known colony of black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes) and was a potential threat to the food source of this endangered species.     

Transmission shifts underlie variability in population responses to Yersinia pestis infection

Host populations for the plague bacterium, Yersinia pestis, are highly variable in their response to plague ranging from near deterministic extinction (i.e., epizootic dynamics) to a low probability of extinction despite persistent infection (i.e., enzootic dynamics). Much of the work to understand this variability has focused on specific host characteristics, such as population size and resistance, and their role in determining plague dynamics. Here, however, we advance the idea that the relative importance of alternative transmission routes may vary causing shifts from epizootic to enzootic dynamics. We present a model that incorporates host and flea ecology with multiple transmission hypotheses to study how transmission shifts determine population responses to plague. Our results suggest enzootic persistence relies on infection of an off-host flea reservoir and epizootics rely on transiently maintained flea infection loads through repeated infectious feeds by fleas. In either case, early-phase transmission by fleas (i.e., transmission immediately following an infected blood meal) has been observed in laboratory studies, and we show that it is capable of driving plague dynamics at the population level. Sensitivity analysis of model parameters revealed that host characteristics (e.g., population size and resistance) vary in importance depending on transmission dynamics, suggesting that host ecology may scale differently through different transmission routes enabling prediction of population responses in a more robust way than using either host characteristics or transmission shifts alone.     

The role of fleas (Siphonaptera) in the epizootiology of plague

This review concerns the role of the fleas in survival and spread of the plague, their influence on the seasonal dynamics of the epizootics, and infection rates of these insects in different natural foci. The critical evaluation is given to the data which are used to calculate the flea transmission probability for mathematical simulation of plague epizootics.     

The development of a method for the long-term prediction of sites for the occurrence of plague epizootics among wild rodents

The method for the long-term (3 years) prognostication of epizootic activity of plague is proposed. The method is based on the concept of the cyclic character of epizootics as the result of the superposition of a multitude of periodic components on the assumption that the duration of the periods takes the form of a row of prime consecutive numbers. This method was approbated in 25 areas of the Kyzyl Kum autonomous focus of plague.     

High prevalence of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Yersinia pestis</Emphasis> in black-tailed prairie dog colonies during an apparent enzootic phase of sylvatic plague

Sylvatic plague (Yersinia pestis) was introduced into North America over 100 years ago. The disease causes high mortality and extirpations in black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus), which is of conservation concern because prairie dogs provide habitat for the critically endangered black-footed ferret (Mustela nigripes). Our goal was to help elucidate the mechanism Y. pestis uses to persist in prairie ecosystems during enzootic and epizootic phases. We used a nested PCR protocol to assay for plague genomes in fleas collected from prairie dog burrows potentially exposed to plague in 1999 and 2000. No active plague epizootic was apparent in the 55 prairie dog colonies sampled in 2002 and 2003. However, 63% of the colonies contained plague-positive burrows in 2002, and 57% contained plague-positive burrows in 2003. Within plague-positive colonies, 23% of sampled burrows contained plague-positive fleas in 2002, and 26% contained plague-positive fleas in 2003. Of 15 intensively sampled colonies, there was no relationship between change in colony area and percentage of plague-positive burrows over the two years of the study. Some seasonality in plague prevalence was apparent because the highest percentages of plague-positive colonies were recorded in May and June. The surprisingly high prevalence of plague on study area colonies without any obvious epizootic suggested that the pathogen existed in an enzootic state in black-tailed prairie dogs. These findings have important implications for the management of prairie dogs and other species that are purported to be enzootic reservoir species.     

No evidence of persistent Yersina pestis infection at prairie dog colonies in north-central Montana

Sylvatic plague is a flea-borne zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, which can cause extensive mortality among prairie dogs (Cynomys) in western North America. It is unclear whether the plague organism persists locally among resistant host species or elsewhere following epizootics. From June to August 2002 and 2003 we collected blood and flea samples from small mammals at prairie dog colonies with a history of plague, at prairie dog colonies with no history of plague, and from off-colony sites where plague history was unknown. Blood was screened for antibody to Y. pestis by means of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay or passive hemagglutination assay and fleas were screened for Y. pestis DNA by polymerase chain reaction. All material was negative for Y. pestis including 156 blood samples and 553 fleas from colonies with a known history of plague. This and other studies provide evidence that Y. pestis may not persist at prairie dog colonies following an epizootic.     

Climate-driven spatial dynamics of plague among prairie dog colonies

We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for the joint spatial dynamics of a host-parasite system. The model was fitted to long-term data on regional plague dynamics and metapopulation dynamics of the black-tailed prairie dog, a declining keystone species of North American prairies. The rate of plague transmission between colonies increases with increasing precipitation, while the rate of infection from unknown sources decreases in response to hot weather. The mean annual dispersal distance of plague is about 10 km, and topographic relief reduces the transmission rate. Larger colonies are more likely to become infected, but colony area does not affect the infectiousness of colonies. The results suggest that prairie dog movements do not drive the spread of plague through the landscape. Instead, prairie dogs are useful sentinels of plague epizootics. Simulations suggest that this model can be used for predicting long-term colony and plague dynamics as well as for identifying which colonies are most likely to become infected in a specific year.     

Analysis of <Emphasis Type="Italic">cry</Emphasis> Gene Profiles in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bacillus Thuringiensis</Emphasis> Strains Isolated During Epizootics in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cydia pomonella</Emphasis> L.

The crystal morphology and the profiles of genes encoding protein toxins (Cry and Cyt) were analyzed in 12 Bacillus thuringiensis strains isolated during epizootics in laboratory culture lines of Cydia pomonella, 2 isolates cultured from Leucoma salicis larvae, and 9 reference strains. Epizootic isolates produced crystals of the same bipyramidal shape; however, they revealed a variety of number and type of cry genes. Genes cry1I, cry2Ab, and cry9B were the most frequently observed in epizootic strains. Gene cry1I was noted in of 50% epizootic isolates. Eighty-three percent of them harbored gene cry2Ab. Gene cry9B was found for 42% of strains isolated during epizootics. Three isolates showed the largest number of cry genes and their variety; hence, they were chosen for the toxicity assay of their crystals and spores on C. pomonella larvae. One of them had approximately sixfold higher insecticidal activity than the reference strain B. thuringiensis subsp. kurstaki BTK STANDARD.     

Genetic source tracking of human plague cases in Inner Mongolia-Beijing, 2019

On 12 November 2019, one couple from the Sonid Left Qi (County) in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was diagnosed with pneumonic plague in Beijing. The wife acquired the infection from her husband. Thereafter, two bubonic plague cases were identified in Inner Mongolia on November 16^th and 24^th. In this study, genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) analysis was used to identify the phylogenetic relationship of Yersinia pestis strains isolated in Inner Mongolia. Strains isolated from reservoirs in 2018 and 2019 in Inner Mongolia, together with the strain isolated from Patient C, were further clustered into 2.MED3m, and two novel lineages (2.MED3q, 2.MED3r) in the 2.MED3 population. According to the analysis of PCR-based molecular subtyping methods, such as the MLVA 14 scheme and seven SNP allele sequencing, Patients A/B and D were classified as 2.MED3m. In addition, strains from rodents living near the patients’ residences were clustered into the same lineage as patients. Such observations indicated that human plague cases originated from local reservoirs. Corresponding phylogenetic analysis also indicated that rodent plague strains in different areas in Inner Mongolia belong to different epizootics rather than being caused by spreading from the same epizootic in Meriones unguiculatus in 2019.     

Sylvatic plague management and prairie dogs – a meta‐analysis

Yersinia pestis, a bacterial pathogen that causes sylvatic plague, is present in the prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.) of North America. Epizootics of sylvatic plague through transmission in vectors (fleas) commonly completely extirpate colonies of prairie dogs. Wildlife managers employ a wide variety of insecticidal treatments to suppress plague and conserve prairie dog colonies. I compiled and statistically compared the available literature describing methods of plague control and their relative effectiveness in managing plague outbreaks by using meta‐analyses. Natural log response ratios were used to calculate insecticide‐induced vector mortality and vaccine‐conferred survival increases in prairie dogs in 37 publications. Further, subgroupings were used to explore the most effective of the available vector suppression insecticides and plague suppression vaccines. After accounting for the type of treatment used and the method by which it was applied, I observed plague reduction through use of both insecticides and vaccines. Insecticides resulted in a significant reduction of the abundance of vectors by 91.34% compared to non‐treated hosts (p<0.0001). Vaccines improved survival of prairie dog hosts by 4.00% (p<0.0001) compared to control populations. The use of insecticides such as deltamethrin and carbaryl is recommended to stop actively spreading epizootics, and dual antigen oral vaccines to initially suppress outbreaks.     

Environmental and human demographic features associated with epizootic raccoon rabies in Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Virginia

We assessed land use and demographic data as predictors discriminating between counties experiencing large or small first epizootics of rabies among raccoons (Procyon lotor). Monthly county reports of raccoons testing positive for rabies were obtained from rabies surveillance databases from Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Virginia (USA). Environmental and demographic data for the three states were obtained from public sources. On the basis of total reports of raccoon rabies during the first defined epizootic period, the 203 counties were dichotomized at the 75th percentile as having a large epizootic (> or = 24 rabid raccoons in the first epizootic) (51 counties) or a small epizootic or no epizootic (152 counties). A high percentage of agricultural land use [OR = 9.1, 95% CI (3.6-23.1)], high water coverage in combination with low human population density [OR = 8.8, 95% CI (2.9-27.0)], and low water coverage with high human population density [OR = 11.7, 95% CI (4.0-34.1)] were positively associated with large rabies epizootics. Counties with more than 15% of mixed forest were less likely to experience large epizootics than were counties with < or = 15% of mixed forest [OR = 0.3, 95% CI (0.1, 0.9)]. A combination of land use and human population density measures provided the best model for determining epizootic size and may be important predictors of epizootic behavior and risk of exposure to this reservoir species.     

Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) identification of rodent blood meals confirms host sharing by flea vectors of plague

Elucidating feeding relationships between hosts and parasites remains a significant challenge in studies of the ecology of infectious diseases, especially those involving small or cryptic vectors. Black‐tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) are a species of conservation importance in the North American Great Plains whose populations are extirpated by plague, a flea‐vectored, bacterial disease. Using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays, we determined that fleas (Oropsylla hirsuta) associated with prairie dogs feed upon northern grasshopper mice (Onychomys leucogaster), a rodent that has been implicated in the transmission and maintenance of plague in prairie‐dog colonies. Our results definitively show that grasshopper mice not only share fleas with prairie dogs during plague epizootics, but also provide them with blood meals, offering a mechanism by which the pathogen, Yersinia pestis, may be transmitted between host species and maintained between epizootics. The lack of identifiable host DNA in a significant fraction of engorged Oropsylla hirsuta collected from animals (47%) and prairie‐dog burrows (100%) suggests a rapid rate of digestion and feeding that may facilitate disease transmission during epizootics but also complicate efforts to detect feeding on alternative hosts. Combined with other analytical approaches, e.g., stable isotope analysis, molecular genetic techniques can provide novel insights into host‐parasite feeding relationships and improve our understanding of the role of alternative hosts in the transmission and maintenance of disease.     

Persistence of plague outbreaks among great gerbils in Kazakhstan: effects of host population dynamics

Outbreaks of plague (Yersinia pestis) among great gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) generally require a high host abundance to be initiated. The duration of an outbreak is expected to depend on the subsequent development of this abundance; however, prediction is nontrivial due to the complexity of the gerbil–plague system. The aim of this study was to investigate how the duration of outbreaks depends on different types of host population dynamics generated from: a cyclic model; an autoregressive model giving irregular fluctuations; and a simple model with uncorrelated fluctuations. For each model, outbreak duration was studied under various levels of mean and variability of host abundance. Its focus on the effect of different gerbil dynamics sets this study apart from the few published studies on diseases in dynamic host populations. Plague outbreaks were simulated in a cellular automaton model based on statistical analysis of archived records of plague and host abundance. Temporal autocorrelation was found to make outbreak duration less sensitive to changes in mean abundance than uncorrelated fluctuations. Cyclicity had little effect on the mean duration of outbreaks, but resulted in a multimodal distribution. For all three types of gerbil dynamics, increased variability in gerbil abundance reduced the duration of outbreaks when the mean abundance was high (paralleling results on the risk of species extinction in fluctuating environments), but increased their duration when the mean abundance was lower. Spatial heterogeneity was briefly tested and produced longer outbreaks than the homogenous case. The results are relevant to predicting plague activity in populations of great gerbils.     

The 2002 European seal plague: epidemiology and population consequences

We present the first epidemiological data on the 2002 outbreak of phocine distemper virus (PDV) in European harbour seals (Phoca vitulina). The epizootic curve to date supports a mortality rate and probability of infection identical to that of the 1988 outbreak, which killed 58% of the population. Thus immunity is playing no significant role in the dynamics of the current outbreak. Because the timing of the outbreak is important in determining local mortality rates, we predict higher mortality rates on the European continent than in Great Britain or Ireland. A stochastic model is used to quantify how recurrent epizootics affect the long‐term growth, fluctuation, and persistence of the population. Recurrent PDV epizootics with the observed frequency and severity would reduce the long‐term stochastic growth rate of the harbour seal population by half, and significantly increase the risk of quasi‐extinction.     

Seasonal dynamics of epizootic process of the plague agent <Emphasis Type="Italic">Yersinia pestis</Emphasis> transmission to the long-tailed suslik <Emphasis Type="Italic">Citellus undulatus</Emphasis> by the flea <Emphasis Type="Italic">Citellophilus tesquorum</Emphasis> in Tuva

Transmission of Yersinia pestis to the long-tailed suslik (Citellus undulatus) by fleas (Citellophilus tesquorum) in the Tuva natural plague focus in different seasons (spring, summer, and autumn) was studied experimentally. Between feeding periods, insects were kept in an artificial nest under temperature and humidity closely corresponding to seasonal ones. The character of the agent transmission was estimated according to the fraction of fleas with the agent in the aggregated state (bacterial lumps, partial blocks of proventriculus), the fraction of blocked individuals, and the fraction of infected susliks and of those with the generalized form of infection. Seasonal dynamics of epizootic process of the Y. pestis transmission corresponded to the results obtained in the epizootic examination of the Tuva natural plague focus and reflected the dynamics of the epizootic process (increase-peak-decline). The activity of the formation of a proventriculus block in C. t. altaicus, the infection ability of the fleas, and the sensitivity of long-tailed Siberian susliks to Y. pestis were the highest in mid-summer (July-first ten days of August), during the period of epizooty activation in the focus. The maximal number of C. t. altaicus with the plague agent at the aggregated state was observed in the cold period, before wintering of insects and after their hibernation.