Unbiased Estimation of Odds Ratio by Using Negative Binomial Plans

The use of the negative binomial distribution in both the numerator and denominator in prospective studies leads to an unbiased estimate of the odds ratio and an exact expression for its variance. Sample sizes that minimize the variance of odds ratio estimates are specified. The variance of the odds ratio estimate is shown to be close to the Cramér-Rao lower bound.     

Unbiasedness of the Estimator of the Function of Expected Value in the Mixed Linear Model

The traditional method for estimating the linear function of fixed parameters in mixed linear model is a two-stage procedure. In the first stage of this procedure the variance components estimators are calculated and next in the second stage these estimators are taken as true values of variance components to estimating the linear function of fixed parameters according to generalized least squares method. In this paper the general mixed linear model is considered in which a matrix related to fixed parameters and or/a dispersion matrix of observation vector may be deficient in rank. It is shown that the estimators of a set of functions of fixed parameters obtained in second stage are unbiased if only the observation vector is symmetrically distributed about its expected value and the estimators of variance components from first stage are translation-invariant and are even functions of the observation vector.     

Estimation and comparison of changes in the presence of informative right censoring: conditional linear model

A general linear regression model for the usual least squares estimated rate of change (slope) on censoring time is described as an approximation to account for informative right censoring in estimating and comparing changes of a continuous variable in two groups. Two noniterative estimators for the group slope means, the linear minimum variance unbiased (LMVUB) estimator and the linear minimum mean squared error (LMMSE) estimator, are proposed under this conditional model. In realistic situations, we illustrate that the LMVUB and LMMSE estimators, derived under a simple linear regression model, are quite competitive compared to the pseudo maximum likelihood estimator (PMLE) derived by modeling the censoring probabilities. Generalizations to polynomial response curves and general linear models are also described.     

Estimation of dominance components in noninbred populations by using additive animal model residuals

In the case of noninbred and unselected populations with linkage equilibrium, the additive and dominance genetic effects are uncorrelated and the variance-covariance matrix of the second component is simply a product of its variance by a matrix that can be computed from the numerator relationship matrix A. The aim of this study is to present a new approach to estimate the dominance part with a reduced set of equations and hence a lower computing cost. The method proposed is based on the processing of the residual terms resulting from the BLUP methodology applied to an additive animal model. Best linear unbiased prediction of the dominance component d is almost identical to the one given by the full mixed model equations. Based on this approach, an algorithm for restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimation of the variance components is also presented. By way of illustration, two numerical examples are given and a comparison between the parameters estimated with the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm and those obtained by the proposed algorithm is made. The proposed algorithm is iterative and yields estimates that are close to those obtained by EM, which is also iterative.     

Estimation of Parameters in Mixtures of Distributions Arising in Cultivation Problems

In many processes one has to describe events in which given particles or elements divide themselves so that these elements are to observe only after the division. In biological problems one meets such a situation i.e. in the cultivation of bacteria. In this paper we investigate a mathematical model which describes such a phenomenon. We give estimators for the expectation μ and the variance σ² of the distribution of the undivided particles. Therefore we give a best linear unbiased estimator for μ and an estimator μ where a clustering of the observation is essentially. In an example for the judgment of a cultivation method we demonstrate the given estimation procedures.     

Analysis of cytoplasmic and maternal effects I. A genetic model for diploid plant seeds and animals

A genetic model for modified diallel crosses is proposed for estimating variance and covariance components of cytoplasmic, maternal additive and dominance effects, as well as direct additive and dominance effects. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to compare the efficiencies of minimum norm quadratic unbiased estimation (MINQUE) methods. For both balanced and unbalanced mating designs, MINQUE (0/1), which has 0 for all the prior covariances and 1 for all the prior variances, has similar efficiency to MINQUE(), which has parameter values for the prior values. Unbiased estimates of variance and covariance components and their sampling variances could be obtained with MINQUE(0/1) and jackknifing. A t-test following jackknifing is applicable to test hypotheses for zero variance and covariance components. The genetic model is robust for estimating variance and covariance components under several situations of no specific effects. A MINQUE(0/1) procedure is suggested for unbiased estimation of covariance components between two traits with equal design matrices. Methods of unbiased prediction for random genetic effects are discussed. A linear unbiased prediction (LUP) method is shown to be efficient for the genetic model. An example is given for a demonstration of estimating variance and covariance components and predicting genetic effects.     

Estimation of the contribution of quantitative trait loci (QTL) to the variance of a quantitative trait by means of genetic markers

The estimation of the contribution of an individual quantitative trait locus (QTL) to the variance of a quantitative trait is considered in the framework of an analysis of variance (ANOVA). ANOVA mean squares expectations which are appropriate to the specific case of QTL mapping experiments are derived. These expectations allow the specificities associated with the limited number of genotypes at a given locus to be taken into account. Discrepancies with classical expectations are particularly important for two-class experiments (backcross, recombinant inbred lines, doubled haploid populations) and F₂ populations. The result allows us firstly to reconsider the power of experiments (i.e. the probability of detecting a QTL with a given contribution to the variance of the trait). It illustrates that the use of classical formulae for mean squares expectations leads to a strong underestimation of the power of the experiments. Secondly, from the observed mean squares it is possible to estimate directly the variance associated with a locus and the fraction of the total variance associated to this locus (r _l ² ). When compared to other methods, the values estimated using this method are unbiased. Considering unbiased estimators increases in importance when (1) the experimental size is limited; (2) the number of genotypes at the locus of interest is large; and (3) the fraction of the variation associated with this locus is small. Finally, specific mean squares expectations allows us to propose a simple analytical method by which to estimate the confidence interval of r _l ² . This point is particularly important since results indicate that 95% confidence intervals for r _l ² can be rather wide:2–23% for a 10% estimate and 8–34% for a 20% estimate if 100 individuals are considered.     

Analysis of cytoplasmic and maternal effects. II. Genetic models for triploid endosperms

Genetic models for quantitative traits of triploid endosperms are proposed for the analysis of direct gene effects, cytoplasmic effects, and maternal gene effects. The maternal effect is partitioned into maternal additive and dominance components. In the full genetic model, the direct effect is partitioned into direct additive and dominance components and high-order dominance component, which are the cumulative effects of three-allele interactions. If the high-order dominance effects are of no importance, a reduced genetic model can be used. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted in this study for demonstrating unbiasedness of estimated variance and covariance components from the MINQUE (0/1) procedure, which is a minimum norm quadratic unbiased estimation (MINQUE) method setting 0 for all the prior covariances and 1 for all the prior variances. Robustness of estimating variance and covariance components for the genetic models was tested by simulations. Both full and reduced genetic models are shown to be robust for estimating variance and covariance components under several situations of no specific effects. Efficiency of predicting random genetic effects for the genetic models by the MINQUE (0/1) procedure was compared with the best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP). A worked example is given to illustrate the use of the reduced genetic model for kernel growth characteristics in corn (Zea mays L.).     

Methods for estimating the parameters of a linear model for ordered categorical data.

In many empirical analyses, the response of interest is categorical with an ordinal scale attached. Many investigators prefer to formulate a linear model, assigning scores to each category of the ordinal response and treating it as continuous. When the covariates are categorical, Haber (1985, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 3, 1-10) has developed a method to obtain maximum likelihood (ML) estimates of the parameters of the linear model using Lagrange multipliers. However, when the covariates are continuous, the only method we found in the literature is ordinary least squares (OLS), performed under the assumption of homogeneous variance. The OLS estimates are unbiased and consistent but, since variance homogeneity is violated, the OLS estimates of variance can be biased and may not be consistent. We discuss a variance estimate (White, 1980, Econometrica 48, 817-838) that is consistent for the true variance of the OLS parameter estimates. The possible bias encountered by using the naive OLS variance estimate is discussed. An estimated generalized least squares (EGLS) estimator is proposed and its efficiency relative to OLS is discussed. Finally, an empirical comparison of OLS, EGLS, and ML estimators is made.     

A mixed model method to predict QTL-cluster effects using trait and marker information in a multi-group population.

In this study, a mixed model method using trait phenotype and marker information was developed for genetic evaluation of animals in a crossbred population originated from several founder genetic groups. The situation in which a cluster of QTLs is located in a particular chromosome region and is marked by two flanking markers is considered. With this method, the conditional expectation of the identity-by-descent proportion for the QTL-cluster marked and the genetic variances and covariances, given genetic group and marker information, are properly taken into account. The structure of segregation variance used in this method is different from that in the case of a single QTL marked. The current method provides best linear unbiased estimation of the relevant fixed effects and best linear unbiased prediction of the additive effects for the QTL-cluster marked and of the additive effects of the remaining polygenes. A small numerical example is given to illustrate the current prediction procedure.     

普通克立格法在昆虫生态学中的应用

地统计学是以区域化变量为基础,以变差函数为主要工龄,分析空间相关变量结构的统计方法。在对波动较大的实验变差函数进行拟合时,虽无法获得最优拟合,但运用人机对话的拟合方法来灵活选取参数,可以得到较理想的变差函数模型的参数。本文运用加权多项式回归法以及人机对话的方法,得到了较理想的1级与2级球状模型拟合结果,同时利用直线函数对实验变差函数进行了拟合,最后利用普通Kriging法,对待估计点进行各理论模型的最优、线性、无偏内插估计,得出克立格内插权重。将此方法应用于广东省四会市大沙镇富溪乡试验田稻飞观测数据,由待估点周围若干观测点的数据,有效地估计出待估点的昆虫分布密度,并讨论比较了不同理论模型的拟合效果以及估计误差。结果表明,2级球状模型的拟合最好,一级球状模型次之,直线函数的拟合最差,但直线函数计算最为简便。     

Estimating the Rate of Transfer to a Voluntary Improvement or Rehabilitation Programme Following Capture

A method is developed for determining the effectiveness of counselling individuals to undertake a voluntary improvement or rehabilitation programme following capture. This is achieved by estimating the rate of transfer. Estimates are also obtained of the number who have undertaken the programme previously and those who have not undertaken the programme. For a closed population, the estimated rate of transfer is shown to be unbiased and its variance derived. The estimate is obtained under general conditions and, in the special case, when deaths of drug addicts occur, it is shown that the estimate is approximately unbiased. The theory could also be used to estimate the tag losses/gains due to migration in biological populations when capture-recapture techniques are used.     

Covariance between relatives in multibreed populations: additive model

Covariance between relatives in a multibreed population was derived for an additive model with multiple unlinked loci. An efficient algorithm to compute the inverse of the additive genetic covariance matrix is given. For an additive model, the variance for a crossbred individual is a function of the additive variances for the pure breeds, the covariance between parents, and segregation variances. Provided that the variance of a crossbred individual is computed as presented here, the covariance between crossbred relatives can be computed using formulae for purebred populations. For additive traits the inverse of the genotypic covariance matrix given here can be used both to obtain genetic evaluations by best linear unbiased prediction and to estimate genetic parameters by maximum likelihood in multibreed populations. For nonadditive traits, the procedure currently used to analyze multibreed data can be improved using the theory presented here to compute additive covariances together with a suitable approximation for nonadditive covariances.Supported in part by the Illinois Agricultural Experiment Station, Hatch Projects 35-0345 (RLF) and 35-0367 (MG)     

Spatial models for spatial statistics: some unification

A general statistical framework is proposed for comparing linear models of spatial process and pattern. A spatial linear model for nested analysis of variance can be based on either fixed effects or random effects. Greig-Smith (1952) originally used a fixed effects model, but there are also examples of random effects models in the soil science literature. Assuming intrinsic stationarity for a linear model, the expectations of a spatial nested ANOVA and two term local variance (TTLV, Hill 1973) are functions of the variogram, and several examples are given. Paired quadrat variance (PQV, Ludwig & Goodall 1978) is a variogram estimator which can be used to approximate TTLV, and we provide an example from ecological data. Both nested ANOVA and TTLV can be seen as weighted lag-1 variogram estimators that are functions of support, rather than distance. We show that there are two unbiased estimators for the variogram under aggregation, and computer simulation shows that the estimator with smaller variance depends on the process autocorrelation.     

Theory for modelling means and covariances in a two-breed population with dominance inheritance

This paper presents theory and methods to compute genotypic means and covariances in a two breed population under dominance inheritance, assuming multiple unlinked loci. It is shown that the genotypic mean is a linear function of five location parameters and that the genotypic covariance between relatives is a linear function of 25 dispersion parameters. Recursive procedures are given to compute the necessary identity coefficients. In the absence of inbreeding, the number of parameters for the mean is reduced from five to three and the number for the covariance is reduced from 25 to 12. In a two-breed population, for traits exhibiting dominance, the theory presented here can be used to obtain genetic evaluations by best linear unbiased prediction and to estimate genetic parameters by maximum likelihood.Supported in part by the Illinois Agricultural Experiment Station, Hatch Projects 35-0345 (R.L.F.) and 35-0367 (M.G.). A computer program implementing the methods described here is available upon request to R.L.F.     

Pacing patterns in competitive rowing adopted in different race categories

Data from 7 World Rowing Championships between 2001 and 2009 were analyzed to determine the time distribution during 2,000-m heavyweight races (from 500-m quarter times) and to assess whether pacing patterns differ between boat classes (single vs. team boats) and qualifying rounds (heats vs. finals). Analyses of variance with repeated measures on quarter times revealed that pacing patterns in heat races were better described (i.e., higher amount of variance explained) by a linear trend line with a positive slope (women: η2 = 0.76, men: η2 = 0.68) but followed a quadratic trend line (parabolic-shaped pattern) during finals (women: η2 = 0.81, men: η2 = 0.60). Not using a spurt at the end of the heat races may indicate an attempt to conserve energy for subsequent rounds or reflect reduced effort made by losing crews or both aspects. In single boats, the pacing pattern was better represented by a linear trend line with a positive slope (women: η2 = 0.76, men: η2 = 0.68), but the amount of variance explained was virtually the same for both the linear and the quadratic trend component in team boats. The absence of a final spurt in single boat races suggests that the physiological status of the athlete plays an important role to control the timing and rate of decline in rowing speed.     

Critical Assessment of the C-Optimality Design Criteria for Estimating the Median Effective Dose in Quantal Dose-Response Curves

In this paper the properties of C-optimal designs constructed for estimating the median effective dose within the framework of two-parametric linear logistic models are critically assessed. It is well known that this design criterion which is based on the first-order variance approximation of the exact variance of the maximum likelihood estimate of the ED50 leads to a one-point design where the maximum likelihood theory breaks down. The single dose used in this design is identical with the true but unknown value of the ED50. It will be shown, that at this one-point design the asymptotic variance does not exist. A two-point design in the neighbourhood of the one-point design which is symmetrical about the ED50 and associated with a small dose-distance would be nearly optimal, but extremely nonrobust if the best guess of the ED50 differs from the true value. In this situation the asymptotic variance of the two-point design converging towards the one-point design tends to infinity. Moreover, taking in consideration, that for searching an optimal design the exact variance is of primary interest and the asymptotic variance serves only as an approximation of the exact variance, we calculate the exact variance of the estimator from balanced, symmetric 2-point designs in the neighbourhood of the limiting 1-point design for various dose distances and initial best guesses of the ED50. We compare the true variance of the estimate of the ED50 with the asymptotic variance and show that the approximations generally do not represent suitable substitutes for the exact variance even in case of unrealistically large sample sizes. Kalish (1990) proposed a criterion based on the second-order asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimate of the ED50 to overcome the degenerated 1-point design as the solution of the optimization procedure. In fact, we are able to show that this variance approximation does not perform substantially better than the first–order variance. From these considerations it follows, that the C-optimality criterion is not useful in this estimation problem. Other criteria like the F-optimality should be used.     

Estimation of a Secondary Parameter in a Group Sequential Clinical Trial

In this article, we investigate estimation of a secondary parameter in group sequential tests. We study the model in which the secondary parameter is the mean of the normal distribution in a subgroup of the subjects. The bias of the naive secondary parameter estimator is studied. It is shown that the sampling proportions of the subgroup have a crucial effect on the bias: As the sampling proportion of the subgroup at or just before the stopping time increases, the bias of the naive subgroup parameter estimator increases as well. An unbiased estimator for the subgroup parameter and an unbiased estimator for its variance are derived. Using simulations, we compare the mean squared error of the unbiased estimator to that of the naive estimator, and we show that the differences are negligible. As an example, the methods of estimation are applied to an actual group sequential clinical trial, The Beta-Blocker Heart Attack Trial.     

Analysis of Covariance in Split Block Design

In this paper the analysis of covariance in the split block design with many concomitant variables is presented. The problems concerning the estimation of parametric functions and testing hypotheses are discussed. In the presentation of the model three kinds of regression coefficients for individual sources of variation are taken into consideration. It is shown that for every estimable function of fixed effects, the best linear unbiased estimator under the assumed model is the same as the best linear unbiased estimator under the model with covariance matrix equal to identity matrix multiplied by a positive constant. A variance of this estimator can be calculated by the method presented here. Test functions for standard hypotheses concerning fixed effects are obtained.     

Estimation of the amount of inbreeding due to subdivision of a population

In a large population which is subdivided into isolated or partially isolated subpopulations polymorphic for a gene locus, there is an excess of homozygotes due to the subdivision. This excess increases with the variance of the gene frequency. The excess can be measured by the “coefficient of inbreeding.” The aim of this paper is to estimate this coefficient, which is a function of various population parameters. We suggest several different estimates, which are the same functional form of unbiased estimates of the population parameters. These estimates are shown to be consistent. They have been compared by numerical methods among themselves and with two other estimates suggested previously.