Assessment of Anopheles salivary antigens as individual exposure biomarkers to species-specific malaria vector bites

The development of parasitological immunity against malaria affects the ability to detect infection, the efficiency of the local human parasite reservoir at infecting mosquitoes, and the response to reintroduction of parasites to previously cleared areas. Observations of similar age-trends in detected prevalence and mean parasitaemia across more than an order-of-magnitude of variation in baseline transmission complicate simple exposure-driven explanations. Mathematical models often employ age-dependent immune factors to match the observed trends, while the present model uses a new detailed mechanistic model of parasite transmission dynamics to explain age-trends through the mechanism of parasite diversity. Illustrative simulations are performed for multiple field sites in Tanzania and Nigeria, and observed age-trends and seasonality in parasite prevalence are recreated in silico, proffering possible mechanistic explanations of the observational data. Observed temporal dynamics in measured parasitaemia are recreated for each location and age-prevalence outputs are studied. Increasing population-level diversity in malaria surface antigens delays development of broad parasitological immunity. A local parasite population with high diversity can recreate the observed trends in age-prevalence across more than an order of magnitude of variation in transmission intensities. Mechanistic models of human immunity and parasite antigen diversity can recreate the observed temporal patterns for the development of parasitological immunity across a wide range of transmission intensities. This has implications for the distribution of disease burden across the population, the human transmission reservoir, design of elimination campaigns, and development and roll-out of potential vaccines.     

Estimating the prevalence of infections in vector populations using pools of samples

Several statistical methods have been proposed for estimating the infection prevalence based on pooled samples, but these methods generally presume the application of perfect diagnostic tests, which in practice do not exist. To optimize prevalence estimation based on pooled samples, currently available and new statistical models were described and compared. Three groups were tested: (a) Frequentist models, (b) Monte Carlo Markov‐Chain (MCMC) Bayesian models, and (c) Exact Bayesian Computation (EBC) models. Simulated data allowed the comparison of the models, including testing the performance under complex situations such as imperfect tests with a sensitivity varying according to the pool weight. In addition, all models were applied to data derived from the literature, to demonstrate the influence of the model on real‐prevalence estimates. All models were implemented in the freely available R and OpenBUGS software and are presented in Appendix S1. Bayesian models can flexibly take into account the imperfect sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test (as well as the influence of pool‐related or external variables) and are therefore the method of choice for calculating population prevalence based on pooled samples. However, when using such complex models, very precise information on test characteristics is needed, which may in general not be available.     

Estimating the numbers of malaria infections in blood samples using high-resolution genotyping data

People living in endemic areas often habour several malaria infections at once. High-resolution genotyping can distinguish between infections by detecting the presence of different alleles at a polymorphic locus. However the number of infections may not be accurately counted since parasites from multiple infections may carry the same allele. We use simulation to determine the circumstances under which the number of observed genotypes are likely to be substantially less than the number of infections present and investigate the performance of two methods for estimating the numbers of infections from high-resolution genotyping data.THE SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE PROBLEM IS NOT SUBSTANTIAL IN MOST DATASETS: the disparity between the mean numbers of infections and of observed genotypes was small when there was 20 or more alleles, 20 or more blood samples, a mean number of infections of 6 or less and where the frequency of the most common allele was no greater than 20%. The issue of multiple infections carrying the same allele is unlikely to be a major component of the errors in PCR-based genotyping.Simulations also showed that, with heterogeneity in allele frequencies, the observed frequencies are not a good approximation of the true allele frequencies. The first method that we proposed to estimate the numbers of infections assumes that they are a good approximation and hence did poorly in the presence of heterogeneity. In contrast, the second method by Li et al estimates both the numbers of infections and the true allele frequencies simultaneously and produced accurate estimates of the mean number of infections.     

Estimating the global distribution of field size using crowdsourcing

There is an increasing evidence that smallholder farms contribute substantially to food production globally, yet spatially explicit data on agricultural field sizes are currently lacking. Automated field size delineation using remote sensing or the estimation of average farm size at subnational level using census data are two approaches that have been used. However, both have limitations, for example, automatic field size delineation using remote sensing has not yet been implemented at a global scale while the spatial resolution is very coarse when using census data. This paper demonstrates a unique approach to quantifying and mapping agricultural field size globally using crowdsourcing. A campaign was run in June 2017, where participants were asked to visually interpret very high resolution satellite imagery from Google Maps and Bing using the Geo‐Wiki application. During the campaign, participants collected field size data for 130 K unique locations around the globe. Using this sample, we have produced the most accurate global field size map to date and estimated the percentage of different field sizes, ranging from very small to very large, in agricultural areas at global, continental, and national levels. The results show that smallholder farms occupy up to 40% of agricultural areas globally, which means that, potentially, there are many more smallholder farms in comparison with the two different current global estimates of 12% and 24%. The global field size map and the crowdsourced data set are openly available and can be used for integrated assessment modeling, comparative studies of agricultural dynamics across different contexts, for training and validation of remote sensing field size delineation, and potential contributions to the Sustainable Development Goal of Ending hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture.     

Estimating infection prevalence: Best practices and their theoretical underpinnings

Accurately estimating infection prevalence is fundamental to the study of population health, disease dynamics, and infection risk factors. Prevalence is estimated as the proportion of infected individuals (“individual‐based estimation”), but is also estimated as the proportion of samples in which evidence of infection is detected (“anonymous estimation”). The latter method is often used when researchers lack information on individual host identity, which can occur during noninvasive sampling of wild populations or when the individual that produced a fecal sample is unknown. The goal of this study was to investigate biases in individual‐based versus anonymous prevalence estimation theoretically and to test whether mathematically derived predictions are evident in a comparative dataset of gastrointestinal helminth infections in nonhuman primates. Using a mathematical model, we predict that anonymous estimates of prevalence will be lower than individual‐based estimates when (a) samples from infected individuals do not always contain evidence of infection and/or (b) when false negatives occur. The mathematical model further predicts that no difference in bias should exist between anonymous estimation and individual‐based estimation when one sample is collected from each individual. Using data on helminth parasites of primates, we find that anonymous estimates of prevalence are significantly and substantially (12.17%) lower than individual‐based estimates of prevalence. We also observed that individual‐based estimates of prevalence from studies employing single sampling are on average 6.4% higher than anonymous estimates, suggesting a bias toward sampling infected individuals. We recommend that researchers use individual‐based study designs with repeated sampling of individuals to obtain the most accurate estimate of infection prevalence. Moreover, to ensure accurate interpretation of their results and to allow for prevalence estimates to be compared among studies, it is essential that authors explicitly describe their sampling designs and prevalence calculations in publications.     

Estimating Neospora caninum prevalence in wildlife populations using Bayesian inference

Prevalence of disease in wildlife populations, which is necessary for developing disease models and conducting epidemiologic analyses, is often understudied. Laboratory tests used to screen for diseases in wildlife populations often are validated only for domestic animals. Consequently, the use of these tests for wildlife populations may lead to inaccurate estimates of disease prevalence. We demonstrate the use of Bayesian latent class analysis (LCA) in determining the specificity and sensitivity of a competitive enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA; VMRD^®, Inc.) serologic test used to identify exposure to Neospora caninum (hereafter N. caninum) in three wildlife populations in southeastern Ohio, USA. True prevalence of N. caninum exposure in these populations was estimated to range from 0.1% to 3.1% in American bison (Bison bison), 51.0% to 53.8% in Père David's deer (Elaphurus davidianus), and 40.0% to 45.9% in white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). The accuracy of the cELISA in American bison and Père David's deer was estimated to be close to the 96% sensitivity and 99% specificity reported by the manufacturer. Sensitivity in white‐tailed deer, however, ranged from 78.9% to 99.9%. Apparent prevalence of N. caninum from the test results is not equal to the true prevalence in white‐tailed deer and Père David's deer populations. Even when these species inhabit the same community, the true prevalence in the two deer populations differed from the true prevalence in the American bison population. Variances in prevalence for some species suggest differences in the epidemiology of N. caninum for these colocated populations. Bayesian LCA methods could be used as in this example to overcome some of the constraints on validating tests in wildlife species. The ability to accurately evaluate disease status and prevalence in a population improves our understanding of the epidemiology of multihost pathogen systems at the community level.     

No relationship between individual genetic diversity and prevalence of avian malaria in a migratory kestrel

Insight into the genetic basis of malaria resistance is crucial for understanding the consequences of this parasite group on animal populations. Here, we analyse the relationship between genotypic variation at 11 highly variable microsatellite loci and prevalence of three different lineages of avian malaria, two Plasmodium (RTSR1, LK6) and one Haemoproteus (LK2), in a wild population of the endangered lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni). Although we used a large sample size (584 typed individuals), we did not find any significant association between the prevalence of the studied parasite lineages and individual genetic diversity. Although our data set is large, the 11 neutral markers typed may have had low power to detect such association, in part because of the low parasite prevalence observed (less than 5% of infected birds). However, the fact that we have detected previous correlations between genetic diversity and other traits (ectoparasitism risk, fecundity) in the study population using the same panel of neutral markers and lower sample sizes suggests that other factors could underlie the absence of such a similar correlation with avian malaria. Differences in the genetics of the studied traits and in their particular basis of inbreeding depression (dominance vs. overdominance) may have led to malaria prevalence, but not other traits, being uncoupled with individual genetic diversity. Also, we cannot discard the possibility that the absence of association was a consequence of a low pathogenic effect of these particular malaria lineages on our lesser kestrel population, and thus we should not expect the evolution of genetic resistance against these parasites.     

SNP芯片数据估计动物个体基因组品种构成的方法及应用

自然和人工选择、地理隔离和遗传漂移等原因使动物基因组中许多位点的等位基因频率在群体间会产生差异。源于不同品种(祖先)杂交(交配)的动物个体,其基因组与这些品种(祖先)的基因频率(基因型)会存在一定的相关性。因此采用合适的统计模型和分析方法,可以估计出每个品种(祖先)对于个体基因组的遗传贡献比例,又称为个体的基因组品种构成(genomic breed composition, GBC)。本文介绍了利用SNP芯片数据估计动物个体GBC的原理、方法及步骤,并且通过对198头待鉴定的日本红毛和牛GBC的评估,演示了用回归模型和混合分布模型估计动物个体GBC的具体步骤,其中包括SNP子集的筛选、参考群体中动物个体选择以及待测定动物GBC的计算。参考动物群体选自日本红毛和牛(Akaushi)、安格斯牛(Angus)、海福特牛(Hereford)、荷斯坦牛(Holstein)和娟珊牛(Jersey) 5个品种共36 574头,每个个体有40K或50K芯片数据。本文在现有商用 SNP芯片基础上筛选用于品种鉴定和估计动物个体GBC的SNP子集,是对现有SNP芯片功能的拓展和深入开发利用。此外,在基因组选择中如何利用SNP基因型估计动物个体GBC的结果,提高纯种和杂种动物的预测准确度,也是值得深入研究的领域。     

True versus apparent malaria infection prevalence: the contribution of a Bayesian approach

Aims

To present a new approach for estimating the “true prevalence” of malaria and apply it to datasets from Peru, Vietnam, and Cambodia.

Methods

Bayesian models were developed for estimating both the malaria prevalence using different diagnostic tests (microscopy, PCR & ELISA), without the need of a gold standard, and the tests'' characteristics. Several sources of information, i.e. data, expert opinions and other sources of knowledge can be integrated into the model. This approach resulting in an optimal and harmonized estimate of malaria infection prevalence, with no conflict between the different sources of information, was tested on data from Peru, Vietnam and Cambodia.

Results

Malaria sero-prevalence was relatively low in all sites, with ELISA showing the highest estimates. The sensitivity of microscopy and ELISA were statistically lower in Vietnam than in the other sites. Similarly, the specificities of microscopy, ELISA and PCR were significantly lower in Vietnam than in the other sites. In Vietnam and Peru, microscopy was closer to the “true” estimate than the other 2 tests while as expected ELISA, with its lower specificity, usually overestimated the prevalence.

Conclusions

Bayesian methods are useful for analyzing prevalence results when no gold standard diagnostic test is available. Though some results are expected, e.g. PCR more sensitive than microscopy, a standardized and context-independent quantification of the diagnostic tests'' characteristics (sensitivity and specificity) and the underlying malaria prevalence may be useful for comparing different sites. Indeed, the use of a single diagnostic technique could strongly bias the prevalence estimation. This limitation can be circumvented by using a Bayesian framework taking into account the imperfect characteristics of the currently available diagnostic tests. As discussed in the paper, this approach may further support global malaria burden estimation initiatives.     

Estimating the extrinsic incubation period of malaria using a mechanistic model of sporogony

During sporogony, malaria-causing parasites infect a mosquito, reproduce and migrate to the mosquito salivary glands where they can be transmitted the next time blood feeding occurs. The time required for sporogony, known as the extrinsic incubation period (EIP), is an important determinant of malaria transmission intensity. The EIP is typically estimated as the time for a given percentile, x, of infected mosquitoes to develop salivary gland sporozoites (the infectious parasite life stage), which is denoted by EIP_x. Many mechanisms, however, affect the observed sporozoite prevalence including the human-to-mosquito transmission probability and possibly differences in mosquito mortality according to infection status. To account for these various mechanisms, we present a mechanistic mathematical model, which explicitly models key processes at the parasite, mosquito and observational scales. Fitting this model to experimental data, we find greater variation in the EIP than previously thought: we estimated the range between EIP₁₀ and EIP₉₀ (at 27°C) as 4.5 days compared to 0.9 days using existing statistical methods. This pattern holds over the range of study temperatures included in the dataset. Increasing temperature from 21°C to 34°C decreased the EIP₅₀ from 16.1 to 8.8 days. Our work highlights the importance of mechanistic modelling of sporogony to (1) improve estimates of malaria transmission under different environmental conditions or disease control programs and (2) evaluate novel interventions that target the mosquito life stages of the parasite.     

Molecular approaches to field studies of malaria

The third 'Molecular Approaches to Malaria' conference was held in Lorne, Australia, in February 2008 and provided extensive information on the application of molecular tools in field studies on malaria. In recent years, technological advances and capacity building in malaria-endemic countries have permitted molecular tools to be applied much more frequently and successfully with exciting new findings. In this review, Hans-Peter Beck and Kevin Tetteh report on the most recent findings using molecular tools in field studies.     

中亚热带森林单木地上生物量的机载激光雷达估测

以雪峰山武冈林场为研究对象,利用遥感数据和地面实测样地数据,研究机载激光雷达（LiDAR）估测中亚热带森林乔木层单木地上生物量的能力.利用条件随机场和最优化方法实现LiDAR点云的单木分割,以单木尺度为对象提取的植被点云空间结构、回波特征以及地形特征等作为遥感变量,采用回归模型估测乔木层地上生物量.结果表明: 针叶林、阔叶林和针阔混交林的单木识别率分别为93%、86%和60%;多元逐步回归模型的调整决定系数分别为0.83、0.81和0.74,均方根误差分别为28.22、29.79和32.31 t·hm^-2;以冠层体积、树高百分位值、坡度和回波强度值构成的模型精度明显高于以树高为因子的传统回归模型精度.以单木为对象从LiDAR点云中提取的遥感变量有助于提高森林生物量估测精度.
     

Estimating disease prevalence in two-phase studies

Disease prevalence is ideally estimated using a 'gold standard' to ascertain true disease status on all subjects in a population of interest. In practice, however, the gold standard may be too costly or invasive to be applied to all subjects, in which case a two-phase design is often employed. Phase 1 data consisting of inexpensive and non-invasive screening tests on all study subjects are used to determine the subjects that receive the gold standard in the second phase. Naive estimates of prevalence in two-phase studies can be biased (verification bias). Imputation and re-weighting estimators are often used to avoid this bias. We contrast the forms and attributes of the various prevalence estimators. Distribution theory and simulation studies are used to investigate their bias and efficiency. We conclude that the semiparametric efficient approach is the preferred method for prevalence estimation in two-phase studies. It is more robust and comparable in its efficiency to imputation and other re-weighting estimators. It is also easy to implement. We use this approach to examine the prevalence of depression in adolescents with data from the Great Smoky Mountain Study.     

Estimating field metabolic rates for Australian marsupials using phylogeny

Field metabolic rate (FMR) is a useful measure for the energy expenditure in free-ranging animals. Field metabolic rates for species that have not been measured are usually predicted by allometric equations on the basis of their body mass (BM). Phylogenetically informed methods improve estimates of both allometric relationships and species-specific FMR values by considering the evolutionary history of species. Further improvement is possible by incorporating isolated measurements on BM and FMR, but most existing methods force the user to discard such incomplete data. In the present study the FMR of most Australian marsupial species was predicted for the first time using a phylogenetic method that was explicitly designed to handle incomplete data. This allows full use of the dataset containing 35 samples of FMR and 130 samples of BM. Cross-validation demonstrated that FMRs were estimated with high accuracy. The resulting prediction equation was FMR (kJ day^? 1) = 5.27 BM (g)^0.69. Field metabolic rate and BM were highly phylogenetically correlated (r = 0.96), i.e. FMR and BM co-evolved. Differences between species-specific and generic marsupial estimates of FMR revealed that herbivores have lower energy expenditure than carnivores. Specifically, herbivorous macropods have on average lower relative FMR (kJ/d) (3.75 ± 0.53 BM^0.69; mean ± SD) than carnivorous dasyurids (7.64 ± 0.84 BM^0.69). Phylogenetically informed estimates for most extant Australian marsupial species are now available.     

Modeling erythropoiesis subject to malaria infection

A mathematical model of erythropoiesis subject to malaria infection is developed by combining ideas from previous models that addressed only one of the two phenomena. The nature of the model allows one to account for suppression of erythropoiesis by the toxin hemozoin, which is a by-product of digested hemoglobin. Following the derivation of the model, numerical simulations are performed and show that the number of parasites produced per bursting erythrocyte has the most significant effect of erythropoiesis. It is also shown that removing hemozoin may be an effective method for aiding the recovery of the erythrocyte population, but is not effective in maintaining a healthy population in the early stages of infection. The second half of the paper introduces an implicit finite difference scheme that was used to perform the simulations previously mentioned. An existence-uniqueness result is then provided via the numerical method.     

Decoding of attentional state using local field potentials

We review recent efforts to decode visual spatial attention from different types of brain signals, such as spikes and local field potentials (LFPs). Combining signals from more electrodes improves decoding, but the pattern of improvement varies considerably depending on the signal as well as the task (for example, decoding of sensory stimulus/motor intention versus location of attention). We argue that this pattern of results conveys important information not only about the usefulness of a particular brain signal for decoding attention, but also about the spatial scale over which attention operates in the brain. The spatial scale, in turn, likely depends on the extent of underlying mechanisms such as normalization, gain control via excitation–inhibition interactions, and neuromodulatory regulation of attention.     

Estimating the prevalence of two or more diseases using outcomes from multiplex group testing

When screening a population for infectious diseases, pooling individual specimens (e.g., blood, swabs, urine, etc.) can provide enormous cost savings when compared to testing specimens individually. In the biostatistics literature, testing pools of specimens is commonly known as group testing or pooled testing. Although estimating a population-level prevalence with group testing data has received a large amount of attention, most of this work has focused on applications involving a single disease, such as human immunodeficiency virus. Modern methods of screening now involve testing pools and individuals for multiple diseases simultaneously through the use of multiplex assays. Hou et al. (2017, Biometrics, 73, 656–665) and Hou et al. (2020, Biostatistics, 21, 417–431) recently proposed group testing protocols for multiplex assays and derived relevant case identification characteristics, including the expected number of tests and those which quantify classification accuracy. In this article, we describe Bayesian methods to estimate population-level disease probabilities from implementing these protocols or any other multiplex group testing protocol which might be carried out in practice. Our estimation methods can be used with multiplex assays for two or more diseases while incorporating the possibility of test misclassification for each disease. We use chlamydia and gonorrhea testing data collected at the State Hygienic Laboratory at the University of Iowa to illustrate our work. We also provide an online R resource practitioners can use to implement the methods in this article.