Single sample expression-anchored mechanisms predict survival in head and neck cancer

Gene expression signatures that are predictive of therapeutic response or prognosis are increasingly useful in clinical care; however, mechanistic (and intuitive) interpretation of expression arrays remains an unmet challenge. Additionally, there is surprisingly little gene overlap among distinct clinically validated expression signatures. These “causality challenges” hinder the adoption of signatures as compared to functionally well-characterized single gene biomarkers. To increase the utility of multi-gene signatures in survival studies, we developed a novel approach to generate “personal mechanism signatures” of molecular pathways and functions from gene expression arrays. FAIME, the Functional Analysis of Individual Microarray Expression, computes mechanism scores using rank-weighted gene expression of an individual sample. By comparing head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) samples with non-tumor control tissues, the precision and recall of deregulated FAIME-derived mechanisms of pathways and molecular functions are comparable to those produced by conventional cohort-wide methods (e.g. GSEA). The overlap of “Oncogenic FAIME Features of HNSCC” (statistically significant and differentially regulated FAIME-derived genesets representing GO functions or KEGG pathways derived from HNSCC tissue) among three distinct HNSCC datasets (pathways:46%, p<0.001) is more significant than the gene overlap (genes:4%). These Oncogenic FAIME Features of HNSCC can accurately discriminate tumors from control tissues in two additional HNSCC datasets (n = 35 and 91, F-accuracy = 100% and 97%, empirical p<0.001, area under the receiver operating characteristic curves = 99% and 92%), and stratify recurrence-free survival in patients from two independent studies (p = 0.0018 and p = 0.032, log-rank). Previous approaches depending on group assignment of individual samples before selecting features or learning a classifier are limited by design to discrete-class prediction. In contrast, FAIME calculates mechanism profiles for individual patients without requiring group assignment in validation sets. FAIME is more amenable for clinical deployment since it translates the gene-level measurements of each given sample into pathways and molecular function profiles that can be applied to analyze continuous phenotypes in clinical outcome studies (e.g. survival time, tumor volume).     

Predicting diabetic nephropathy using a multifactorial genetic model

Aims

The tendency to develop diabetic nephropathy is, in part, genetically determined, however this genetic risk is largely undefined. In this proof-of-concept study, we tested the hypothesis that combined analysis of multiple genetic variants can improve prediction.

Methods

Based on previous reports, we selected 27 SNPs in 15 genes from metabolic pathways involved in the pathogenesis of diabetic nephropathy and genotyped them in 1274 Ashkenazi or Sephardic Jewish patients with Type 1 or Type 2 diabetes of >10 years duration. A logistic regression model was built using a backward selection algorithm and SNPs nominally associated with nephropathy in our population. The model was validated by using random “training” (75%) and “test” (25%) subgroups of the original population and by applying the model to an independent dataset of 848 Ashkenazi patients.

Results

The logistic model based on 5 SNPs in 5 genes (HSPG2, NOS3, ADIPOR2, AGER, and CCL5) and 5 conventional variables (age, sex, ethnicity, diabetes type and duration), and allowing for all possible two-way interactions, predicted nephropathy in our initial population (C-statistic = 0.672) better than a model based on conventional variables only (C = 0.569). In the independent replication dataset, although the C-statistic of the genetic model decreased (0.576), it remained highly associated with diabetic nephropathy (χ² = 17.79, p<0.0001). In the replication dataset, the model based on conventional variables only was not associated with nephropathy (χ² = 3.2673, p = 0.07).

Conclusion

In this proof-of-concept study, we developed and validated a genetic model in the Ashkenazi/Sephardic population predicting nephropathy more effectively than a similarly constructed non-genetic model. Further testing is required to determine if this modeling approach, using an optimally selected panel of genetic markers, can provide clinically useful prediction and if generic models can be developed for use across multiple ethnic groups or if population-specific models are required.     

Influence of connectivity, wild prey and disturbance on occupancy of tigers in the human-dominated western Terai Arc Landscape

Occupying only 7% of their historical range and confined to forested habitats interspersed in a matrix of human dominated landscapes, tigers (Panthera tigris) typify the problems faced by most large carnivores worldwide. With heads of governments of tiger range countries pledging to reverse the extinction process and setting a goal of doubling wild tiger numbers by 2022, achieving this target would require identifying existing breeding cores, potential breeding habitats and opportunities for dispersal. The Terai Arc Landscape (TAL) represents one region which has recently witnessed recovery of tiger populations following conservation efforts. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit tiger occupancy model with survey data from 2009–10 based on a priori knowledge of tiger biology and specific issues plaguing the western TAL (6,979 km²), which occurs in two disjunct units (Tiger Habitat Blocks; THBs). Although the overall occupancy of tigers was 0.588 (SE 0.071), our results clearly indicate that loss in functionality of a regional corridor has resulted in tigers now occupying 17.58% of the available habitat in THB I in comparison to 88.5% in THB II. The current patterns of occupancy were best explained by models incorporating the interactive effect of habitat blocks (AIC w = 0.883) on wild prey availability (AIC w = 0.742) and anthropogenic disturbances (AIC w = 0.143). Our analysis has helped identify areas of high tiger occupancy both within and outside existing protected areas, which highlights the need for a unified control of the landscape under a single conservation unit with the primary focus of managing tigers and associated wildlife. Finally, in the light of global conservation targets and recent legislations in India, our study assumes significance as we identify opportunities to secure (e.g. THB II) and increase (e.g. THB I) tiger populations in the landscape.     

Beyond Parkinson disease: amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and the axon guidance pathway

Background

We recently described a genomic pathway approach to study complex diseases. We demonstrated that models constructed using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within axon guidance pathway genes were highly predictive of Parkinson disease (PD) susceptibility, survival free of PD, and age at onset of PD within two independent whole-genome association datasets. We also demonstrated that several axon guidance pathway genes represented by SNPs within our final models were differentially expressed in PD.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here we employed our genomic pathway approach to analyze data from a whole-genome association dataset of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS); and demonstrated that models constructed using SNPs within axon guidance pathway genes were highly predictive of ALS susceptibility (odds ratio = 1739.73, p = 2.92×10⁻⁶⁰), survival free of ALS (hazards ratio = 149.80, p = 1.25×10⁻⁷⁴), and age at onset of ALS (R² = 0.86, p = 5.96×10⁻⁶⁶). We also extended our analyses of a whole-genome association dataset of PD, which shared 320,202 genomic SNPs in common with the whole-genome association dataset of ALS. We compared for ALS and PD the genes represented by SNPs in the final models for susceptibility, survival free of disease, and age at onset of disease and noted that 52.2%, 37.8%, and 34.9% of the genes were shared respectively.

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings for the axon guidance pathway and ALS have prior biological plausibility, overlap partially with PD, and may provide important insight into the causes of these and related neurodegenerative disorders.     

Homocysteine and Coronary Heart Disease: Meta-analysis of MTHFR Case-Control Studies, Avoiding Publication Bias

Background

Moderately elevated blood levels of homocysteine are weakly correlated with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, but causality remains uncertain. When folate levels are low, the TT genotype of the common C677T polymorphism (rs1801133) of the methylene tetrahydrofolate reductase gene (MTHFR) appreciably increases homocysteine levels, so “Mendelian randomization” studies using this variant as an instrumental variable could help test causality.

Methods and Findings

Nineteen unpublished datasets were obtained (total 48,175 CHD cases and 67,961 controls) in which multiple genetic variants had been measured, including MTHFR C677T. These datasets did not include measurements of blood homocysteine, but homocysteine levels would be expected to be about 20% higher with TT than with CC genotype in the populations studied. In meta-analyses of these unpublished datasets, the case-control CHD odds ratio (OR) and 95% CI comparing TT versus CC homozygotes was 1.02 (0.98–1.07; p = 0.28) overall, and 1.01 (0.95–1.07) in unsupplemented low-folate populations. By contrast, in a slightly updated meta-analysis of the 86 published studies (28,617 CHD cases and 41,857 controls), the OR was 1.15 (1.09–1.21), significantly discrepant (p = 0.001) with the OR in the unpublished datasets. Within the meta-analysis of published studies, the OR was 1.12 (1.04–1.21) in the 14 larger studies (those with variance of log OR<0.05; total 13,119 cases) and 1.18 (1.09–1.28) in the 72 smaller ones (total 15,498 cases).

Conclusions

The CI for the overall result from large unpublished datasets shows lifelong moderate homocysteine elevation has little or no effect on CHD. The discrepant overall result from previously published studies reflects publication bias or methodological problems. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Feeding behaviour, swimming activity and boldness explain variation in feed intake and growth of sole (Solea solea) reared in captivity

The major economic constraint for culturing sole (Solea solea) is its slow and variable growth. The objective was to study the relationship between feed intake/efficiency, growth, and (non-) feeding behaviour of sole. Sixteen juveniles with an average (SD) growth of 2.7 (1.9) g/kg^0.8/d were selected on their growth during a 4-week period in which they were housed communally with 84 other fish. Selected fish were housed individually during a second 4-week period to measure individual feed intake, growth, and behaviour. Fish were hand-fed three times a day during the dark phase of the day until apparent satiation. During six different days, behaviour was recorded twice daily during 3 minutes by direct observations. Total swimming activity, frequency of burying and of escapes were recorded. At the beginning and end of the growth period, two sequential behavioural tests were performed: “Novel Environment” and “Light Avoidance”. Fish housed individually still exhibited pronounced variation in feed intake (CV = 23%), growth (CV = 25%) and behavior (CV = 100%). Differences in feed intake account for 79% of the observed individual differences in growth of sole. Fish with higher variation in feed intake between days and between meals within days had significantly a lower total feed intake (r = −0.65 and r = −0.77) and growth. Active fish showed significantly higher feed intake (r = 0.66) and growth (r = 0.58). Boldness during both challenge tests was related to fast growth: (1) fish which reacted with a lower latency time to swim in a novel environment had significantly higher feed intake (r = −0.55) and growth (r = −0.66); (2) fish escaping during the light avoidance test tended to show higher feed intake (P<0.1) and had higher growth (P<0.05). In conclusion, feeding consistency, swimming activity in the tank, and boldness during behavioral tests are related to feed intake and growth of sole in captivity.     

Molecular typing of Treponema pallidum: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Syphilis is resurgent in many regions of the world. Molecular typing is a robust tool for investigating strain diversity and epidemiology. This study aimed to review original research on molecular typing of Treponema pallidum (T. pallidum) with three objectives: (1) to determine specimen types most suitable for molecular typing; (2) to determine T. pallidum subtype distribution across geographic areas; and (3) to summarize available information on subtypes associated with neurosyphilis and macrolide resistance.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Two researchers independently searched five databases from 1998 through 2010, assessed for eligibility and study quality, and extracted data. Search terms included “Treponema pallidum,” or “syphilis,” combined with the subject headings “molecular,” “subtyping,” “typing,” “genotype,” and “epidemiology.” Sixteen eligible studies were included. Publication bias was not statistically significant by the Begg rank correlation test. Medians, inter-quartile ranges, and 95% confidence intervals were determined for DNA extraction and full typing efficiency. A random-effects model was used to perform subgroup analyses to reduce obvious between-study heterogeneity. Primary and secondary lesions and ear lobe blood specimens had an average higher yield of T. pallidum DNA (83.0% vs. 28.2%, χ² = 247.6, p<0.001) and an average higher efficiency of full molecular typing (80.9% vs. 43.1%, χ² = 102.3, p<0.001) compared to plasma, whole blood, and cerebrospinal fluid. A pooled analysis of subtype distribution based on country location showed that 14d was the most common subtype, and subtype distribution varied across geographic areas. Subtype data associated with macrolide resistance and neurosyphilis were limited.

Conclusions/Significance

Primary lesion was a better specimen for obtaining T. pallidum DNA than blood. There was wide geographic variation in T. pallidum subtypes. More research is needed on the relationship between clinical presentation and subtype, and further validation of ear lobe blood for obtaining T. pallidum DNA would be useful for future molecular studies of syphilis.     

A positive correlation between atypical memory B cells and Plasmodium falciparum transmission intensity in cross-sectional studies in Peru and Mali

Background

Antibodies that protect against Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) malaria are only acquired after years of repeated infections. The B cell biology that underlies this observation is poorly understood. We previously reported that “atypical” memory B cells are increased in children and adults exposed to intense Pf transmission in Mali, similar to what has been observed in individuals infected with HIV. In this study we examined B cell subsets of Pf -infected adults in Peru and Mali to determine if Pf transmission intensity correlates with atypical memory B cell expansion.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In this cross-sectional study venous blood was collected from adults in areas of zero (U.S., n = 10), low (Peru, n = 18) and high (Mali, n = 12) Pf transmission. Adults in Peru and Mali were infected with Pf at the time of blood collection. Thawed lymphocytes were analyzed by flow cytometry to quantify B cell subsets, including atypical memory B cells, defined by the cell surface markers CD19⁺ CD20⁺ CD21⁻ CD27⁻ CD10⁻. In Peru, the mean level of atypical memory B cells, as a percent of total B cells, was higher than U.S. adults (Peru mean: 5.4% [95% CI: 3.61–7.28]; U.S. mean: 1.4% [95% CI: 0.92–1.81]; p<0.0001) but lower than Malian adults (Mali mean 13.1% [95% CI: 10.68–15.57]; p = 0.0001). In Peru, individuals self-reporting ≥1 prior malaria episodes had a higher percentage of atypical memory B cells compared to those reporting no prior episodes (≥1 prior episodes mean: 6.6% [95% CI: 4.09–9.11]; no prior episodes mean: 3.1% [95% CI: 1.52–4.73]; p = 0.028).

Conclusions/Significance

Compared to Pf-naive controls, atypical memory B cells were increased in Peruvian adults exposed to low Pf transmission, and further increased in Malian adults exposed to intense Pf transmission. Understanding the origin, function and antigen specificity of atypical memory B cells in the context of Pf infection could contribute to our understanding of naturally-acquired malaria immunity.     

Geographical and ethnic distribution of the HBV C/D recombinant on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Two forms of hepatitis B virus (HBV) C/D recombinant have been identified in western China, but little is known about their geographical and ethnic distributions, and particularly the clinical significance and specific mutations in the pre-core region. To address these questions, a total of 624 chronic HBV carriers from four ethnic populations representing five provinces in western China were enrolled in this study. Genotypes were firstly determined by restriction fragment length polymorphism, and then confirmed by full or partial genome nucleotide sequencing. The distribution of HBV genotypes was as follows: HBV/B: 40 (6.4%); HBV/C: 221 (35.4%); HBV/D: 39 (6.3%); HBV/CD: 324 (51.9%). In the 324 HBV C/D recombinant infections, 244 (75.3%) were infected with the “CD1” and 80 (24.7%) were infected with the “CD2.” The distribution of HBV genotypes exhibited distinct patterns in different regions and ethnic populations. Geographically, the C/D recombinant was the most prevalent HBV strain on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Ethnically, the C/D recombinant had a higher prevalence in Tibetan patients than in other populations. Clinically, patients with HBV/CD1 showed significantly lower levels of serum total bilirubin than patients with HBV/C2. The prevalence of HBeAg was comparable between patients with HBV/CD1 and HBV/C2 (63.3% vs 50.0%, P = 0.118) whether patients were taken together or stratified by age into three groups (65.6% vs 58.8% in <30 years, P = 0.758; 61.9% vs 48.0% in 30–50 years, P = 0.244; 64.3% vs 33.3%, P = 0.336). Virologically HBV/CD1 had a significantly lower frequency of G1896A than HBV/C2. In conclusion, the HBV C/D recombinant is restricted to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in western China and is found predominantly in Tibetans. The predominance of the premature pre-core stop mutation G1896A in patients with the HBV C/D recombinant may account for the higher prevalence of HBeAg in these patients.     

Stratifying type 2 diabetes cases by BMI identifies genetic risk variants in LAMA1 and enrichment for risk variants in lean compared to obese cases

Common diseases such as type 2 diabetes are phenotypically heterogeneous. Obesity is a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes, but patients vary appreciably in body mass index. We hypothesized that the genetic predisposition to the disease may be different in lean (BMI<25 Kg/m²) compared to obese cases (BMI≥30 Kg/m²). We performed two case-control genome-wide studies using two accepted cut-offs for defining individuals as overweight or obese. We used 2,112 lean type 2 diabetes cases (BMI<25 kg/m²) or 4,123 obese cases (BMI≥30 kg/m²), and 54,412 un-stratified controls. Replication was performed in 2,881 lean cases or 8,702 obese cases, and 18,957 un-stratified controls. To assess the effects of known signals, we tested the individual and combined effects of SNPs representing 36 type 2 diabetes loci. After combining data from discovery and replication datasets, we identified two signals not previously reported in Europeans. A variant (rs8090011) in the LAMA1 gene was associated with type 2 diabetes in lean cases (P = 8.4×10⁻⁹, OR = 1.13 [95% CI 1.09–1.18]), and this association was stronger than that in obese cases (P = 0.04, OR = 1.03 [95% CI 1.00–1.06]). A variant in HMG20A—previously identified in South Asians but not Europeans—was associated with type 2 diabetes in obese cases (P = 1.3×10⁻⁸, OR = 1.11 [95% CI 1.07–1.15]), although this association was not significantly stronger than that in lean cases (P = 0.02, OR = 1.09 [95% CI 1.02–1.17]). For 36 known type 2 diabetes loci, 29 had a larger odds ratio in the lean compared to obese (binomial P = 0.0002). In the lean analysis, we observed a weighted per-risk allele OR = 1.13 [95% CI 1.10–1.17], P = 3.2×10⁻¹⁴. This was larger than the same model fitted in the obese analysis where the OR = 1.06 [95% CI 1.05–1.08], P = 2.2×10⁻¹⁶. This study provides evidence that stratification of type 2 diabetes cases by BMI may help identify additional risk variants and that lean cases may have a stronger genetic predisposition to type 2 diabetes.     

Baseline prediction of combination therapy outcome in hepatitis C virus 1b infected patients by discriminant analysis using viral and host factors

Background

Current treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has limited efficacy −especially among genotype 1 infected patients−, is costly, and involves severe side effects. Thus, predicting non-response is of major interest for both patient wellbeing and health care expense. At present, treatment cannot be individualized on the basis of any baseline predictor of response. We aimed to identify pre-treatment clinical and virological parameters associated with treatment failure, as well as to assess whether therapy outcome could be predicted at baseline.

Methodology

Forty-three HCV subtype 1b (HCV-1b) chronically infected patients treated with pegylated-interferon alpha plus ribavirin were retrospectively studied (21 responders and 22 non-responders). Host (gender, age, weight, transaminase levels, fibrosis stage, and source of infection) and viral-related factors (viral load, and genetic variability in the E1–E2 and Core regions) were assessed. Logistic regression and discriminant analyses were used to develop predictive models. A “leave-one-out” cross-validation method was used to assess the reliability of the discriminant models.

Principal Findings

Lower alanine transaminase levels (ALT, p = 0.009), a higher number of quasispecies variants in the E1–E2 region (number of haplotypes, nHap_E1–E2) (p = 0.003), and the absence of both amino acid arginine at position 70 and leucine at position 91 in the Core region (p = 0.039) were significantly associated with treatment failure. Therapy outcome was most accurately predicted by discriminant analysis (90.5% sensitivity and 95.5% specificity, 85.7% sensitivity and 81.8% specificity after cross-validation); the most significant variables included in the predictive model were the Core amino acid pattern, the nHap_E1–E2, and gamma-glutamyl transferase and ALT levels.

Conclusions and Significance

Discriminant analysis has been shown as a useful tool to predict treatment outcome using baseline HCV genetic variability and host characteristics. The discriminant models obtained in this study led to accurate predictions in our population of Spanish HCV-1b treatment naïve patients.     

Pilot study of the association of the DDAH2 -449G polymorphism with asymmetric dimethylarginine and hemodynamic shock in pediatric sepsis

Background

Genetic variability in the regulation of the nitric oxide (NO) pathway may influence hemodynamic changes in pediatric sepsis. We sought to determine whether functional polymorphisms in DDAH2, which metabolizes the NO synthase inhibitor asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA), are associated with susceptibility to sepsis, plasma ADMA, distinct hemodynamic states, and vasopressor requirements in pediatric septic shock.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In a prospective study, blood and buccal swabs were obtained from 82 patients ≤18 years (29 with severe sepsis/septic shock plus 27 febrile and 26 healthy controls). Plasma ADMA was measured using tandem mass spectrometry. DDAH2 gene was partially sequenced to determine the −871 6g/7g insertion/deletion and −449G/C single nucleotide polymorphisms. Shock type (“warm” versus “cold”) was characterized by clinical assessment. The −871 7g allele was more common in septic (17%) then febrile (4%) and healthy (8%) patients, though this was not significant after controlling for sex and race (p = 0.96). ADMA did not differ between −871 6g/7g genotypes. While genotype frequencies also did not vary between groups for the −449G/C SNP (p = 0.75), septic patients with at least one −449G allele had lower ADMA (median, IQR 0.36, 0.30–0.41 µmol/L) than patients with the −449CC genotype (0.55, 0.49–0.64 µmol/L, p = 0.008) and exhibited a higher incidence of “cold” shock (45% versus 0%, p = 0.01). However, after controlling for race, the association with shock type became non-significant (p = 0.32). Neither polymorphism was associated with inotrope score or vasoactive infusion duration.

Conclusions/Significance

The −449G polymorphism in the DDAH2 gene was associated with both low plasma ADMA and an increased likelihood of presenting with “cold” shock in pediatric sepsis, but not with vasopressor requirement. Race, however, was an important confounder. These results support and justify the need for larger studies in racially homogenous populations to further examine whether genotypic differences in NO metabolism contribute to phenotypic variability in sepsis pathophysiology.     

Net benefits: a multicountry analysis of observational data examining associations between insecticide-treated mosquito nets and health outcomes

Background

Several sub-Saharan African countries have rapidly scaled up the number of households that own insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs). Although the efficacy of ITNs in trials has been shown, evidence on their impact under routine conditions is limited to a few countries and the extent to which the scale-up of ITNs has improved population health remains uncertain.

Methods and Findings

We used matched logistic regression to assess the individual-level association between household ITN ownership or use in children under 5 years of age and the prevalence of parasitemia among children using six malaria indicator surveys (MIS) and one demographic and health survey. We used Cox proportional hazards models to assess the relationship between ITN household ownership and child mortality using 29 demographic and health surveys. The pooled relative reduction in parasitemia prevalence from random effects meta-analysis associated with household ownership of at least one ITN was 20% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3%–35%; I ² = 73.5%, p<0.01 for I ² value). Sleeping under an ITN was associated with a pooled relative reduction in parasitemia prevalence in children of 24% (95% CI 1%–42%; I ² = 79.5%, p<0.001 for I ² value). Ownership of at least one ITN was associated with a pooled relative reduction in mortality between 1 month and 5 years of age of 23% (95% CI 13–31%; I ² = 25.6%, p>0.05 for I ² value).

Conclusions

Our findings across a number of sub-Saharan African countries were highly consistent with results from previous clinical trials. These findings suggest that the recent scale-up in ITN coverage has likely been accompanied by significant reductions in child mortality and that additional health gains could be achieved with further increases in ITN coverage in populations at risk of malaria. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Trend in obesity prevalence in European adult cohort populations during follow-up since 1996 and their predictions to 2015

Objective

To investigate trends in obesity prevalence in recent years and to predict the obesity prevalence in 2015 in European populations.

Methods

Data of 97 942 participants from seven cohorts involved in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study participating in the Diogenes project (named as “Diogenes cohort” in the following) with weight measurements at baseline and follow-up were used to predict future obesity prevalence with logistic linear and non-linear (leveling off) regression models. In addition, linear and leveling off models were fitted to the EPIC-Potsdam dataset with five weight measures during the observation period to find out which of these two models might provide the more realistic prediction.

Results

During a mean follow-up period of 6 years, the obesity prevalence in the Diogenes cohort increased from 13% to 17%. The linear prediction model predicted an overall obesity prevalence of about 30% in 2015, whereas the leveling off model predicted a prevalence of about 20%. In the EPIC-Potsdam cohort, the shape of obesity trend favors a leveling off model among men (R² = 0.98), and a linear model among women (R² = 0.99).

Conclusion

Our data show an increase in obesity prevalence since the 1990ies, and predictions by 2015 suggests a sizeable further increase in European populations. However, the estimates from the leveling off model were considerably lower.     

Association of variants at 1q32 and STAT3 with ankylosing spondylitis suggests genetic overlap with Crohn's disease

Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is a common inflammatory arthritic condition. Overt inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) occurs in about 10% of AS patients, and in addition 70% of AS cases may have subclinical terminal ileitis. Spondyloarthritis is also common in IBD patients. We therefore tested Crohn''s disease susceptibility genes for association with AS, aiming to identify pleiotropic genetic associations with both diseases. Genotyping was carried out using Sequenom and Applied Biosystems TaqMan and OpenArray technologies on 53 markers selected from 30 Crohn''s disease associated genomic regions. We tested genotypes in a population of unrelated individual cases (n = 2,773) and controls (n = 2,215) of white European ancestry for association with AS. Statistical analysis was carried out using a Cochran-Armitage test for trend in PLINK. Strong association was detected at chr1q32 near KIF21B (rs11584383, P = 1.6×10⁻¹⁰, odds ratio (OR) = 0.74, 95% CI:0.68–0.82). Association with disease was also detected for 2 variants within STAT3 (rs6503695, P = 4.6×10⁻⁴. OR = 0.86 (95% CI:0.79–0.93); rs744166, P = 2.6×10⁻⁵, OR = 0.84 (95% CI:0.77–0.91)). Association was confirmed for IL23R (rs11465804, P = 1.2×10⁻⁵, OR = 0.65 (95% CI:0.54–0.79)), and further associations were detected for IL12B (rs10045431, P = 5.2×10⁻⁵, OR = 0.83 (95% CI:0.76–0.91)), CDKAL1 (rs6908425, P = 1.1×10⁻⁴, OR = 0.82 (95% CI:0.74–0.91)), LRRK2/MUC19 (rs11175593, P = 9.9×10⁻⁵, OR = 1.92 (95% CI: 1.38–2.67)), and chr13q14 (rs3764147, P = 5.9×10⁻⁴, OR = 1.19 (95% CI: 1.08–1.31)). Excluding cases with clinical IBD did not significantly affect these findings. This study identifies chr1q32 and STAT3 as ankylosing spondylitis susceptibility loci. It also further confirms association for IL23R and detects suggestive association with another 4 loci. STAT3 is a key signaling molecule within the Th17 lymphocyte differentiation pathway and further enhances the case for a major role of this T-lymphocyte subset in ankylosing spondylitis. Finally these findings suggest common aetiopathogenic pathways for AS and Crohn''s disease and further highlight the involvement of common risk variants across multiple diseases.     

Association of mitochondrial DNA variations with lung cancer risk in a Han Chinese population from southwestern China

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is particularly susceptible to oxidative damage and mutation due to the high rate of reactive oxygen species (ROS) production and limited DNA-repair capacity in mitochondrial. Previous studies demonstrated that the increased mtDNA copy number for compensation for damage, which was associated with cigarette smoking, has been found to be associated with lung cancer risk among heavy smokers. Given that the common and “non-pathological” mtDNA variations determine differences in oxidative phosphorylation performance and ROS production, an important determinant of lung cancer risk, we hypothesize that the mtDNA variations may play roles in lung cancer risk. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a case-control study to compare the frequencies of mtDNA haplogroups and an 822 bp mtDNA deletion between 422 lung cancer patients and 504 controls. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that haplogroups D and F were related to individual lung cancer resistance (OR = 0.465, 95%CI = 0.329–0.656, p<0.001; and OR = 0.622, 95%CI = 0.425–0.909, p = 0.014, respectively), while haplogroups G and M7 might be risk factors for lung cancer (OR = 3.924, 95%CI = 1.757–6.689, p<0.001; and OR = 2.037, 95%CI = 1.253–3.312, p = 0.004, respectively). Additionally, multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that cigarette smoking was a risk factor for the 822 bp mtDNA deletion. Furthermore, the increased frequencies of the mtDNA deletion in male cigarette smoking subjects of combined cases and controls with haplogroup D indicated that the haplogroup D might be susceptible to DNA damage from external ROS caused by heavy cigarette smoking.     

The D299G/T399I Toll-like receptor 4 variant associates with body and liver fat: results from the TULIP and METSIM Studies

Background

Toll-like-receptor 4 (TLR) is discussed to provide a molecular link between obesity, inflammation and insulin resistance. Genetic studies with replications in non-diabetic individuals in regard to their fat distribution or insulin resistance according to their carrier status of a common toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) variant (TLR4^D299G/T399I) are still lacking.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We performed a cross-sectional analysis in individuals phenotyped for prediabetic traits as body fat composition (including magnetic resonance imaging), blood glucose levels and insulin resistance (oral glucose tolerance testing, euglycemic hyperinsulinemic clamp), according to TLR4 genotype determined by candidate SNP analyses (rs4986790). We analyzed N = 1482 non-diabetic individuals from the TÜF/TULIP cohort (South Germany, aged 39±13 y, BMI 28.5±7.9, mean±SD) and N = 5327 non-diabetic participants of the METSIM study (Finland, males aged 58±6 y, BMI 26.8±3.8) for replication purposes. German TLR4^D299G/T399I carriers had a significantly increased body fat (XG in rs4986790: +6.98%, p = 0.03, dominant model, adjusted for age, gender) and decreased insulin sensitivity (XG: −15.3%, Matsuda model, p = 0.04; XG: −20.6%, p = 0.016, clamp; both dominant models adjusted for age, gender, body fat). In addition, both liver fat (AG: +49.7%; p = 0.002) and visceral adipose tissue (AG: +8.2%; p = 0.047, both adjusted for age, gender, body fat) were significantly increased in rs4986790 minor allele carriers, and the effect on liver fat remained significant also after additional adjustment for visceral fat (p = 0.014). The analysis in METSIM confirmed increased body fat content in association with the rare G allele in rs4986790 (AG: +1.26%, GG: +11.0%; p = 0.010, additive model, adjusted for age) and showed a non-significant trend towards decreased insulin sensitivity (AG: −0.99%, GG: −10.62%).

Conclusions/Significance

TLR4^D299G/T399I associates with increased total body fat, visceral fat, liver fat and decreased insulin sensitivity in non-diabetic Caucasians and may contribute to diabetes risk. This finding supports the role of TLR4 as a molecular link between obesity and insulin resistance.     

Pandemics in the age of Twitter: content analysis of Tweets during the 2009 H1N1 outbreak

Background

Surveys are popular methods to measure public perceptions in emergencies but can be costly and time consuming. We suggest and evaluate a complementary “infoveillance” approach using Twitter during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Our study aimed to: 1) monitor the use of the terms “H1N1” versus “swine flu” over time; 2) conduct a content analysis of “tweets”; and 3) validate Twitter as a real-time content, sentiment, and public attention trend-tracking tool.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Between May 1 and December 31, 2009, we archived over 2 million Twitter posts containing keywords “swine flu,” “swineflu,” and/or “H1N1.” using Infovigil, an infoveillance system. Tweets using “H1N1” increased from 8.8% to 40.5% (R ² = .788; p<.001), indicating a gradual adoption of World Health Organization-recommended terminology. 5,395 tweets were randomly selected from 9 days, 4 weeks apart and coded using a tri-axial coding scheme. To track tweet content and to test the feasibility of automated coding, we created database queries for keywords and correlated these results with manual coding. Content analysis indicated resource-related posts were most commonly shared (52.6%). 4.5% of cases were identified as misinformation. News websites were the most popular sources (23.2%), while government and health agencies were linked only 1.5% of the time. 7/10 automated queries correlated with manual coding. Several Twitter activity peaks coincided with major news stories. Our results correlated well with H1N1 incidence data.

Conclusions

This study illustrates the potential of using social media to conduct “infodemiology” studies for public health. 2009 H1N1-related tweets were primarily used to disseminate information from credible sources, but were also a source of opinions and experiences. Tweets can be used for real-time content analysis and knowledge translation research, allowing health authorities to respond to public concerns.