Rapid carbon loss and slow recovery following permafrost thaw in boreal peatlands

Permafrost peatlands store one‐third of the total carbon (C) in the atmosphere and are increasingly vulnerable to thaw as high‐latitude temperatures warm. Large uncertainties remain about C dynamics following permafrost thaw in boreal peatlands. We used a chronosequence approach to measure C stocks in forested permafrost plateaus (forest) and thawed permafrost bogs, ranging in thaw age from young (<10 years) to old (>100 years) from two interior Alaska chronosequences. Permafrost originally aggraded simultaneously with peat accumulation (syngenetic permafrost) at both sites. We found that upon thaw, C loss of the forest peat C is equivalent to ~30% of the initial forest C stock and is directly proportional to the prethaw C stocks. Our model results indicate that permafrost thaw turned these peatlands into net C sources to the atmosphere for a decade following thaw, after which post‐thaw bog peat accumulation returned sites to net C sinks. It can take multiple centuries to millennia for a site to recover its prethaw C stocks; the amount of time needed for them to regain their prethaw C stocks is governed by the amount of C that accumulated prior to thaw. Consequently, these findings show that older peatlands will take longer to recover prethaw C stocks, whereas younger peatlands will exceed prethaw stocks in a matter of centuries. We conclude that the loss of sporadic and discontinuous permafrost by 2100 could result in a loss of up to 24 Pg of deep C from permafrost peatlands.     

Extent of industrial plantations on Southeast Asian peatlands in 2010 with analysis of historical expansion and future projections

Tropical peatlands cover over 25 Mha in Southeast Asia and are estimated to contain around 70 Gt of carbon. Peat swamp forest ecosystems are an important part of the region's natural resources supporting unique flora and fauna endemic to Southeast Asia. Over recent years, industrial plantation development on peatland, especially for oil palm cultivation, has created intense debate due to its potentially adverse social and environmental effects. The lack of objective up‐to‐date information on the extent of industrial plantations has complicated quantification of their regional and global environmental consequences, both in terms of loss of forest and biodiversity as well as increases in carbon emissions. Based on visual interpretation of high‐resolution (30 m) satellite images, we find that industrial plantations covered over 3.1 Mha (20%) of the peatlands of Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Borneo in 2010, surpassing the area of Belgium and causing an annual carbon emission from peat decomposition of 230–310 Mt CO_2e. The majority (62%) of the plantations were located on the island of Sumatra, and over two‐thirds (69%) of all industrial plantations were developed for oil palm cultivation, with the remainder mostly being Acacia plantations for paper pulp production. Historical analysis shows strong acceleration of plantation development in recent years: 70% of all industrial plantations have been established since 2000 and only 4% of the current plantation area existed in 1990. ‘Business‐as‐usual’ projections of future conversion rates, based on historical rates over the past two decades, indicate that 6–9 Mha of peatland in insular Southeast Asia may be converted to plantations by the year 2020, unless land use planning policies or markets for products change. This would increase the annual carbon emission to somewhere between 380 and 920 Mt CO_2e by 2020 depending on water management practices and the extent of plantations.     

Carbon sequestration in peatland: patterns and mechanisms of response to climate change

The response of peatlands to changes in the climatic water budget is crucial to predicting potential feedbacks on the global carbon (C) cycle. To gain insight on the patterns and mechanisms of response, we linked a model of peat accumulation to a model of peatland hydrology, then applied these models to empirical data spanning the past 5000 years for the large mire Store Mosse in southern Sweden. We estimated parameters for C sequestration and height growth by fitting the peat accumulation model to two age profiles. Then, we used independent reconstruction of climate wetness and model reconstruction of bog height to examine changes in peatland hydrology. Reconstructions of C sequestration showed two distinct patterns of behaviour: abrupt increases associated with major transitions in vegetation and dominant Sphagnum species (fuscum, rubellum–fuscum and magellanicum stages), and gradual decreases associated with increasing humification of newly formed peat. Carbon sequestration rate ranged from a minimum of 14 to a maximum of 72 g m^?2 yr^?1, with the most rapid changes occurring in the past 1000 years. Vegetation transitions were associated with periods of increasing climate wetness during which the hydrological requirement for increased seepage loss was met by rise of the water table closer to the peatland surface, with the indirect result of enhancing peat formation. Gradual decline in C sequestration within each vegetation stage resulted from enhanced litter decay losses from the near‐surface layer. In the first two vegetation stages, peatland development (i.e., increasing surface gradient) and decreasing climate wetness drove a gradual increase in thickness of the unsaturated, near‐surface layer, reducing seepage water loss and peat formation. In the most recent vegetation stage, the surface diverged into a mosaic of wet and dry microsites. Despite a steady increase in climate wetness, C sequestration declined rapidly. The complexity of response to climate change cautions against use of past rates to estimate current or to predict future rates of peatland C sequestration. Understanding interactions among hydrology, surface structure and peat formation are essential to predicting potential feedback on the global C cycle.     

Carbon balance and radiative forcing of Finnish peatlands 1900–2100 – the impact of forestry drainage

Natural peatlands accumulate carbon (C) and nitrogen (N). They affect the global climate by binding carbon dioxide (CO₂) and releasing methane (CH₄) to the atmosphere; in contrast fluxes of nitrous oxide (N₂O) in natural peatlands are insignificant. Changes in drainage associated with forestry alter these greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes and thus the radiative forcing (RF) of peatlands. In this paper, changes in peat and tree stand C stores, GHG fluxes and the consequent RF of Finnish undisturbed and forestry‐drained peatlands are estimated for 1900–2100. The C store in peat is estimated at 5.5 Pg in 1950. The rate of C sequestration into peat has increased from 2.2 Tg a^‐‐1 in 1900, when all peatlands were undrained, to 3.6 Tg a^‐‐1 at present, when c. 60% of peatlands have been drained for forestry. The C store in tree stands has increased from 60 to 170 Tg during the 20th century. Methane emissions have decreased from an estimated 1.0–0.5 Tg CH₄‐‐C a^‐‐1, while those of N₂O have increased from 0.0003 to 0.005 Tg N₂O‐‐N a^‐‐1. The altered exchange rates of GHG gases since 1900 have decreased the RF of peatlands in Finland by about 3 mW m^‐‐2 from the predrainage situation. This result contradicts the common hypothesis that drainage results in increased C emissions and therefore increased RF of peatlands. The negative radiative forcing due to drainage is caused by increases in CO₂ sequestration in peat (‐‐0.5 mW m^‐‐2), tree stands and wood products (‐‐0.8 mW m^‐‐2), decreases in CH₄ emissions from peat to the atmosphere (‐‐1.6 mW m^‐‐2), and only a small increase in N₂O emissions (+0.1 mW m^‐‐2). Although the calculations presented include many uncertainties, the above results are considered qualitatively reliable and may be expected to be valid also for Scandinavian countries and Russia, where most forestry‐drained peatlands occur outside Finland.     

Effects of elevated CO2 and vascular plants on evapotranspiration in bog vegetation

We determined evapotranspiration in three experiments designed to study the effects of elevated CO₂ and increased N deposition on ombrotrophic bog vegetation. Two experiments used peat monoliths with intact bog vegetation in containers, with one experiment outdoors and the other in a greenhouse. A third experiment involved monocultures and mixtures of Sphagnum magellanicum and Eriophorum angustifolium in containers in the same greenhouse. To determine water use of the bog vegetation in July–August for each experiment and each year we measured water inputs and outputs from the containers. We studied the effects of elevated CO₂ and N supply on evapotranspiration in relation to vascular plant biomass and exposure of the moss surface (measured as height of the moss surface relative to the container edge). Elevated CO₂ reduced water use of the bog vegetation in all three experiments, but the CO₂ effect on evapotranspiration interacted with vascular plant biomass and exposure of the moss surface. Evapotranspiration in the outdoor experiment was largely determined by evaporation from the Sphagnum moss surface (as affected by exposure to wind) and less so by vascular plant transpiration. Nevertheless, elevated CO₂ significantly reduced evapotranspiration by 9–10% in the outdoor experiment. Vascular plants reduced evapotranspiration in the outdoor experiment, but increased water use in the greenhouse experiments. The relation between vascular plant abundance and evapotranspiration appears to depend on wind conditions; suggesting that vascular plants reduce water losses mainly by reducing wind speed at the moss surface. Sphagnum growth is very sensitive to changes in water level; low water availability can have deleterious effects. As a consequence, reduced evapotranspiration in summer, whether caused by elevated CO₂ or by small increases in vascular plant cover, is expected to favour Sphagnum growth in ombrotrophic bog vegetation.     

Vegetation, climatic changes and net carbon sequestration in a North-Scandinavian subarctic mire over 30 years

This study deals with changes in the plant cover and its net carbon sequestration over 30 years on a subarctic Sphagnum-mire with permafrost near Abisko, northernmost Sweden, in relation to climatic variations during the same period. Aerial colour infrared images from 1970 and 2000 were compared to reveal changes in surface structure and vegetation over the whole mire, while the plant populations were studied within a smaller, mainly ombrotrophic part. The results demonstrated two processes, namely (1) that wet sites dominated by graminoids expanded while hummock sites dominated by dwarf shrubs receded, and (2) that on the hummocks lichens expanded while evergreen dwarf shrubs and mosses decreased, both processes creating an instability in the surface structure. A successive degradation of the permafrost is the likely reason for the increase in wet areas, while the changes in the hummock vegetation might have resulted from higher spring temperatures giving rise to an intensified snow melt, exposing the vegetation to frost drought. Because of the vegetation changes, the annual litter input of carbon to the mire has increased slightly, by 4 g m⁻² a⁻¹ (7.3%), over these years while an increased erosion has resulted in a loss of 40–80 Mg carbon or 7–17 g m⁻² a⁻¹ for the entire mire over the same period. As the recalcitrant proportion of the litter has decreased, the decay rate in the acrotelm might be expected to increase in the future.     

Latitudinal differentiated water table control of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide fluxes from hydromorphic soils: feedbacks to climate change

The possibility of carbon (C) being locked away from the atmosphere for millennia is given in hydromorphic soils. However, the water-table-dependent feedback from soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition to the climate system is less clear. At least three greenhouse gases are produced: carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O). These gases show emission peaks at different water table positions and have different global warming potentials (GWP), for example a factor of 23 for CH₄ and 296 for N₂O as compared with the equivalent mass of CO₂ on a 100-year time horizon. This review of available annual data on all three gases revealed that the radiative forcing effect of SOM decomposition is principally dictated by CO₂ despite its low GWP. Anaerobic SOM decomposition generally has a lower potential feedback to the climatic system than aerobic SOM decomposition. Concrete values are constrained by a lack of data from tropical and subarctic regions. Furthermore, data on N₂O and on plant effects are generally rare. However, there is a clear latitudinal differentiation for the GWP of soils under anaerobic conditions compared with aerobic conditions when looking at CO₂ and CH₄: in the tropical and temperate regions, the anaerobic GWP showed a range of 25–60% of the aerobic value, but values varied between 80% and 110% in the boreal zone. Hence, particularly in the vulnerable boreal zone, the feedback from ecosystems to climate change will highly depend on plant responses to changing water tables at elevated temperatures.     

Modelling past and future peatland carbon dynamics across the pan‐Arctic

The majority of northern peatlands were initiated during the Holocene. Owing to their mass imbalance, they have sequestered huge amounts of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. Although recent syntheses have filled some knowledge gaps, the extent and remoteness of many peatlands pose challenges to developing reliable regional carbon accumulation estimates from observations. In this work, we employed an individual‐ and patch‐based dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ‐GUESS) with peatland and permafrost functionality to quantify long‐term carbon accumulation rates in northern peatlands and to assess the effects of historical and projected future climate change on peatland carbon balance. We combined published datasets of peat basal age to form an up‐to‐date peat inception surface for the pan‐Arctic region which we then used to constrain the model. We divided our analysis into two parts, with a focus both on the carbon accumulation changes detected within the observed peatland boundary and at pan‐Arctic scale under two contrasting warming scenarios (representative concentration pathway—RCP8.5 and RCP2.6). We found that peatlands continue to act as carbon sinks under both warming scenarios, but their sink capacity will be substantially reduced under the high‐warming (RCP8.5) scenario after 2050. Areas where peat production was initially hampered by permafrost and low productivity were found to accumulate more carbon because of the initial warming and moisture‐rich environment due to permafrost thaw, higher precipitation and elevated CO₂ levels. On the other hand, we project that areas which will experience reduced precipitation rates and those without permafrost will lose more carbon in the near future, particularly peatlands located in the European region and between 45 and 55°N latitude. Overall, we found that rapid global warming could reduce the carbon sink capacity of the northern peatlands in the coming decades.     

Postfire carbon balance in boreal bogs of Alberta, Canada

Boreal peatland ecosystems occupy about 3.5 million km² of the earth's land surface and store between 250 and 455 Pg of carbon (C) as peat. While northern hemisphere boreal peatlands have functioned as net sinks for atmospheric C since the most recent deglaciation, natural and anthropogenic disturbances, and most importantly wildfire, may compromise peatland C sinks. To examine the effects of fire on local and regional C sink strength, we focused on a 12 000 km² region near Wabasca, AB, Canada, where ombrotrophic Sphagnum‐dominated bogs cover 2280 km² that burn with a fire return interval of 123±26 years. We characterized annual C accumulation along a chronosequence of 10 bog sites, spanning 1–102 years‐since‐fire (in 2002). Immediately after fire, bogs represent a net C source of 8.9±8.4 mol m⁻² yr⁻¹. At about 13 years after fire, bogs switch from net C sources to net C sinks, mainly because of recovery of the moss and shrub layers. Subsequently, black spruce biomass accumulation contributes to the net C sink, with fine root biomass accumulation peaking at 34 years after fire and aboveground biomass and coarse root accumulation peaking at 74 years after fire. The overall C sink strength peaks at 18.4 mol C m⁻² yr⁻¹ at 75 years after fire. As the tree biomass accumulation rate declines, the net C sink decreases to about 10 mol C m⁻² yr⁻¹ at 100 years‐since‐fire. We estimate that across the Wabasca study region, bogs currently represent a C sink of 14.7±5.1 Gmol yr⁻¹. A decrease in the fire return interval to 61 years with no change in air temperature would convert the region's bogs to a net C source. An increase in nonwinter air temperature of 2 °C would decrease the regional C sink to 6.8±2.3 Gmol yr⁻¹. Under scenarios of predicted climate change, the current C sink status of Alberta bogs is likely to diminish to the point where these peatlands become net sources of atmospheric CO₂‐C.     

基于Biome-BGC模型的北方杨树人工林碳水通量对气候变化的响应研究

研究中国北方杨树人工林碳水通量对气候变化的响应,对于制定合理的经营管理措施以应对区域的气候变化具有重要意义。基于对杨树人工林碳水通量的连续监测数据和对Biome-BGC模型参数的校准,模拟分析杨树人工林碳水通量及水分利用效率(WUE)对气候变化(气温上升、降水变化和大气CO_2浓度上升)的响应规律。结果表明,Biome-BGC模型校准后显著提升了其对杨树人工林碳水通量的模拟精度,对GPP、ET模拟结果的Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(NS)分别为0.69和0.63,各自提高了64.3%和80%,均方根误差(RMSE)则分别降低至1.94 g C m~(-2) d~(-1)和0.88 mm/d,分别下降了26.5%和25.4%。在未来气候变化情景中,单独的气温上升、降水增加和大气CO_2浓度上升分别造成GPP的降低、升高和升高,其中GPP对大气CO_2浓度上升的响应程度(28%—44%)远高于对气温上升(1%—5%)和降水变化(3%—10%)的,ET则主要受降水的影响,响应程度在5%—14%之间。GPP和ET对气候变化的响应则受不同水平的气温上升、降水变化和大气CO_2浓度上升三者综合作用的影响。基于GPP和ET对气候变化的响应,WUE随气温上升、降水增加表现为降低趋势,随降水减少和大气CO_2浓度升高则呈升高趋势;其对未来气候中大气CO_2浓度升高的响应程度为27.7%—43.6%,远高于对气温上升(1.2%—5.8%)和降水变化(1.2%—3.5%)的,说明未来气候变化中大气CO_2浓度上升是促进杨树生长的主要因素;其中相对于当前WUE(2.8 g C/kg H_2O),C2T2P1和C0T3P0情景下WUE的升高和降低幅度最大,分别为45.4%和5.8%。     

15000年以来若尔盖高原泥炭地发育及其碳动态

高海拔泥炭地是维护高原气候环境稳定的重要生态系统,由于其兼具高海拔和高寒的特点,对气候变化尤为敏感。若尔盖高原泥炭地是中国高海拔泥炭地集中分布区,碳储量丰富,由于方法学差异及数据缺乏,其碳储量估算仍存在一定程度的不确定性,对长时间尺度碳通量的模拟研究还较为匮乏。因此,以若尔盖高原泥炭地为研究对象,基于若尔盖高原泥炭地每千年的面积变化和碳累积速率重新评估若尔盖高原泥炭地碳储量,并利用泥炭分解模型和碳通量重建模型探讨了15000年以来若尔盖高原泥炭地碳通量动态。研究结果表明,若尔盖高原泥炭地约从15000年开始发育,发育高峰期在12000-10000年和7000-5000年,泥炭累积速率范围为0.22-1.31 mm/a,平均值为0.56 mm/a;碳累积速率范围为13.4-77.2 g C m^-2 a^-1,平均碳累积速率为33.5 g C m^-2 a^-1,3000年至今碳累积速率最高,7000-6000年是碳累积速率次峰值时期;15000年以来若尔盖高原泥炭地碳储存量达1.4 Pg（1 Pg=10¹⁵ g）,碳累积输入和碳累积释放分别为5.6 Pg和4.2 Pg;净碳平衡平均值为0.087 Tg（1 Tg=10¹² g）C/a,峰值出现在11000-10000年为0.295 Pg;在6000-2000年若尔盖泥炭地出现微弱碳源,最大值出现在5000-4000年,约为-0.034 Pg,净碳平衡在15000-11000年和4000年至今呈现上升趋势,而10000-4000年整体呈现下降趋势。总体而言,若尔盖高原泥炭地碳储量丰富,是青藏高原东部重要的陆地生态系统碳库和碳汇,本研究将为我国高海拔泥炭地碳库保育提供一定的理论和数据支撑。     

Fluxes of nitrous oxide from boreal peatlands as affected by peatland type,water table level and nitrification capacity

Peat soils with high nitrogen content are potential sources of nitrous oxide (N₂O). Fluxes of nitrous oxide were measuredin situ on nine virgin and ten drained peatlands of different hydrology and nutrient status. Numbers of nitrifying bacteria were estimated in different layers of the peat profiles with a most-probable-number technique. Nitrification potentials were determined in soil slurries of pH 4 and 6 from the profiles of six peat soils. Many virgin peatlands showed low N₂O uptake. Lowering of the water table generally increased the average fluxes of N₂O from the soils, although more in minerotrophic (nutrient rich) than in ombrotrophic (nutrient poor) sites. Ammonium oxidizing bacteria were found on only two sites but nitrite oxidizers were detected in almost all peat profiles. More nitrite oxidizers were found in drained than in virgin peat profiles. Nitrification was enhanced after lowering of the water table in minerotrophic peat but not in ombrotrophic peat. The N₂O fluxes correlated positively with the numbers of nitrite oxidizers, nitrification potential, N, P and Ca content and pH of the soil and negatively with the level of water table (expressed as negative values) and K content of the soil.     

Amazonian peatlands: an ignored C sink and potential source

In tropical lowlands, peatlands are commonly reported from Southeast Asia, and especially Indonesian tropical peatlands are known as considerable C sinks and sources. In contrast, Amazonia has been clearly understudied in this context. In this study, based on field observations from 17 wetland sites in Peruvian lowland Amazonia, we report 0–5.9 m thick peat deposits from 16 sites. Only one of the studied sites did not contain any kind of peat deposit (considering pure peat and clayey peat). Historic yearly peat and C accumulation rates, based on radiocarbon dating of peat samples from five sites, varied from 0.94 ± 0.99 to 4.88 ± 1.65 mm, and from 26 ± 3 to 195 ± 70 g C m⁻², respectively. The long-term apparent peat and C accumulation rates varied from 1.69 ± 0.03 to 2.56 ± 0.12 mm yr⁻¹, and from 39 ± 10 to 85 ± 30 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹, respectively. These accumulation rates are comparable to those determined in the Indonesian tropical peatlands. Under altered conditions, Indonesian peatlands can release globally relevant amounts of C to the atmosphere. Considering the estimated total area of Amazonian peatlands (150 000 km²) close to that of the Indonesian ones (200 728 km²) as well as several factors threatening the Amazonian peatlands, we suggest that the total C stocks and fluxes associated with Amazonian peatlands may be of global significance.     

Effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on leaf characteristics,photosynthesis and carbon storage in aboveground biomass of a boreal bioenergy crop (Phalaris arundinacea L.) under varying water regimes

This work examined the effects of elevated CO₂ and temperature and water regimes, alone and in interaction, on the leaf characteristics [leaf area (LA), specific leaf weight (SLW), leaf nitrogen content (N_L) based on LA], photosynthesis (light‐saturated net carbon fixation rate, P_sat) and carbon storage in aboveground biomass of leaves (C_l) and stem (C_s) for a perennial reed canary grass (Phalaris arundinacea L., Finnish local cultivar). For this purpose, plants were grown under different water regimes (ranging from high to low soil moisture) in climate‐controlled growth chambers under the elevated CO₂ and/or temperature (following a factorial design) over a whole growing season (May–September in 2009). The results showed that the elevated temperature increased the leaf growth, photosynthesis and carbon storage of aboveground biomass the most in the early growing periods, compared with ambient temperature. However, the plant growth declined rapidly thereafter with a lower carbon storage at the end of growing season. This was related to the accelerated phenology regulation and consequent earlier growth senescence. Consequently, the elevation of CO₂ increased the P_sat, LA and SLW during the growing season, with a significant concurrent increase in the carbon storage in aboveground biomass. Low soil moisture decreased the P_sat, leaf stomatal conductance, LA and carbon storage in above ground biomass compared with high and normal soil moisture. This water stress effect was the largest under the elevated temperature. The elevated CO₂ partially mitigated the adverse effects of high temperature and low soil moisture. However, the combination of elevated temperature and CO₂ did not significantly increase the carbon storage in aboveground biomass of the plants.     

Carbon Offsets as Ecological Restorations

The explosive growth of carbon markets is creating unprecedented opportunities for landscape‐scale restoration worldwide. Most mandatory and voluntary greenhouse gas reduction programs allow use of carbon offset credits, including biosequestration projects, to replace actual emission reductions. Are the market schemes configured in a way that promotes ecosystem recovery and long‐term carbon storage? As importantly, is it likely that these efforts will provide significant social and environmental co‐benefits to justify trading offsets rather than actually reducing emissions? Compared with social scientists working in sustainable development, restoration ecologists have not offered much advice on the way carbon markets could be configured to support lasting restorations. Under current standards, the market price is likely governing the quality of restorations, not the reverse. A variety of reforms are needed to ensure that biosequestration projects deliver real, additional, and permanent removals of carbon dioxide. In particular, developing and adopting social and environmental impact assessment tools, changing accounting practices to allow for natural disturbances, universal adoption of strong additionality testing, and supporting critical research through tonnage fees could substantially improve what is accomplished through carbon offsets. Given the magnitude and importance of what carbon markets are attempting to achieve, insights from restoration ecologists are urgently needed to help shape their future.     

Global climate change and soil carbon stocks; predictions from two contrasting models for the turnover of organic carbon in soil

Enhanced release of CO₂ to the atmosphere from soil organic carbon as a result of increased temperatures may lead to a positive feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, resulting in much higher CO₂ levels and accelerated global warming. However, the magnitude of this effect is uncertain and critically dependent on how the decomposition of soil organic C (heterotrophic respiration) responds to changes in climate. Previous studies with the Hadley Centre's coupled climate–carbon cycle general circulation model (GCM) (HadCM3LC) used a simple, single‐pool soil carbon model to simulate the response. Here we present results from numerical simulations that use the more sophisticated ‘RothC’ multipool soil carbon model, driven with the same climate data. The results show strong similarities in the behaviour of the two models, although RothC tends to simulate slightly smaller changes in global soil carbon stocks for the same forcing. RothC simulates global soil carbon stocks decreasing by 54 Gt C by 2100 in a climate change simulation compared with an 80 Gt C decrease in HadCM3LC. The multipool carbon dynamics of RothC cause it to exhibit a slower magnitude of transient response to both increased organic carbon inputs and changes in climate. We conclude that the projection of a positive feedback between climate and carbon cycle is robust, but the magnitude of the feedback is dependent on the structure of the soil carbon model.