Factors Influencing Survival Rates of Pronghorn Fawns in Idaho

Pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) occur throughout western North America. In Idaho, USA, following intensive hunting to reduce crop depredations in the late 1980s, pronghorn populations have not rebounded to desired levels. Because neonatal survival in ungulates is one factor limiting population growth, we evaluated cause-specific mortality and the influence of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on survival rates of 217 radio-collared pronghorn fawns across 3 study areas in Idaho during 2015–2016. For intrinsic variables, we determined the sex and body mass index (BMI) for each fawn. For extrinsic variables, we determined the abundance of predators and alternate prey, estimated the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for 1 month pre- and post-parturition, and measured fecal nitrogen and diaminopimelic acid (DAPA). We considered NDVI as a measure of plant productivity, and fecal nitrogen and DAPA as possible proxies of diet quality. We predicted NDVI, fecal nitrogen, and DAPA would be positively related to the nutritional status of females and positively related to fawn survival. We used Program MARK with known fate models to estimate semi-monthly survival rates of pronghorn fawns for the first 4 months post-parturition. During both years, the leading cause of fawn mortality was coyote (Canis latrans) predation (58%), followed by unknown causes of mortality (18%), unknown predation (12%), predation by bobcats (Lynx rufus; 6%), predation by golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos; 3%), and other (3%). Mean fawn survival for the 4 months post-parturition across years and study sites was 0.42 ± 0.04 (SE; range = 28–62%). The top survival model included BMI, lagomorph abundance, and DAPA and had a model weight of 83.3%. All 3 variables were positively related to pronghorn fawn survival. Because females with increased nutrition generally have heavier fawns, BMI was likely correlated to diet quality, which was supported by the positive relationship between DAPA and fawn survival. We hypothesize that high lagomorph abundance created an alternate prey base to buffer coyotes from preying on pronghorn neonates. We found no influence of measures of NDVI (pre- and post-parturition), fecal nitrogen, or predator abundance on fawn survival. Management actions providing high-quality forage for pronghorn are likely to contribute to production of heavier fawns having the highest chance of survival. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Forage Enhancement Plots as a Management Tool for Sonoran Pronghorn Recovery

ABSTRACT We studied the efficacy of forage enhancement plots for Sonoran pronghorn (Antilocapra americana sonoriensis) during a drought in a large (130-ha) enclosure. As drought conditions continued, Sonoran pronghorn increased percent of time foraging in forage enhancement plots from 5.3±2.2% (SE) to 47.8±2.8% but showed signs of poor body condition and one died of starvation. Our results confirm the utility of forage enhancement plots for Sonoran pronghorn recovery, but suggest future research be conducted to determine the optimal size and watering regime of plots to increase survival and recruitment during prolonged droughts.     

Influence of Precipitation on Pronghorn Demography in Texas

Abstract: Ungulate populations in desert environments are thought to be regulated by precipitation. Pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) populations in Trans-Pecos, Texas, USA, experienced a 70% decline between 1977 and 2001. The causative factors associated with the decline are unknown but appear to be related to drought. We evaluated the relationships between pronghorn abundance and productivity and precipitation (i.e., raw precipitation, Palmer Drought indices) for the Trans-Pecos district of Texas from 1977 to 2004. Pronghorn productivity (range = 305-4,407) and abundance (range = 5,061-17,266) showed high variability. Precipitation was also highly variable, ranging from 18 cm to 57 cm. Pronghorn abundance was positively influenced by precipitation indices (R = 0.790, P < 0.001). The relationship between fawn production and raw precipitation (R = 0.869, P < 0.001) suggested that fawn production may be more closely related to immediate moisture conditions, whereas pronghorn abundance was more influenced by long-term population trends. Management plans for pronghorn populations in more arid regions should include drought contingencies including reduced stocking rates and harvest quotas.     

Survival of Pronghorns in Western South Dakota

Abstract: Survival and cause-specific mortality of pronghorns (Antilocapra americana) have been well-documented in several western states and Canadian provinces. However, no information has been collected in western South Dakota, USA, where mixed-grass prairie habitats characterize rangelands. The objectives of our study were to determine survival and cause-specific mortality of adult (>18 months) and yearling (6-18 months) pronghorns and to determine monthly and summer (Jun-Aug) survival for neonatal (<1 month of age) pronghorns in South Dakota. We radiocollared 93 adult female and 142 neonatal pronghorns on 3 areas in western South Dakota. We used bed sites from initial neonate captures to collect microhabitat information throughout Harding and Fall River counties. We measured vegetation understory and overstory height, shrub canopy, and distance to nearest concealment cover to the nearest centimeter inside 1-m² quadrats by collecting measurements at 15 random points within a 30-m radius of the bed site. We documented that coyote (Canis latrans) predation was the primary cause of mortality for neonates in western South Dakota and that microhabitat characteristics at neonate bed sites differed between northwestern and southwestern South Dakota. More intensive aerial predator control may increase neonate survival in Fall River County. Management of rangelands by state and federal employees throughout western South Dakota and Wind Cave National Park that maximizes height of overstory and understory vegetation would provide neonates with adequate concealment cover for protection from predators, thereby increasing 4-week and 12-week postcapture survival. Our study provides South Dakota game managers with region-specific, annual and seasonal survival rates that were previously only estimated, thus improving the accuracy of simulated pronghorn population model output. Hunting was the primary cause of mortality (26%) for adult females in Harding and Fall River counties, thereby confirming the continued use of annual harvest by South Dakota game managers as the primary management tool for maintaining pronghorn populations within statewide population management goals.     

Contrasting management paradigms for pronghorn in the arid Southwest and their northern range: a review

Pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), a symbol of western North America, experienced diverging population trajectories since the mid-twentieth century, with northern populations showing signs of recovery while those in the arid Southwest have struggled to persist. We conducted a systematic literature review of papers published through August 2023 to understand 3 questions. What are the habitat conditions needed for pronghorn to persist? What management actions can be taken to foster higher quality habitat? Do these actions differ for populations in the arid Southwest compared to their northern counterparts? Although the fundamental habitat requirements for pronghorn persistence have remained constant since the early 2000s, it has become clear that precipitation is a key factor influencing pronghorn populations in the arid Southwest. The precise mechanisms by which precipitation influences pronghorn population dynamics are not yet clear, whether through the availability of free water, by affecting forage quality, or indirectly via predator-prey dynamics. Although range-wide forage enhancement may be impractical, providing additional free water sources could facilitate greater movement, enabling pronghorn to access more and higher quality forage and areas with lower predation risk. To clarify how pronghorn persisted for thousands of years in this harsh environment, we must gain a better understanding of their historical metapopulation and migratory behaviors in the arid Southwest.     

Use of Museum Specimens to Refine Historical Pronghorn Subspecies Boundaries

Endangered Sonoran (Antilocapra americana sonoriensis) and Peninsular (A. a. peninsularis) pronghorn persist largely because of captive breeding and reintroduction efforts. Recovery team managers want to re-establish pronghorn in their native range, but there is currently uncertainty regarding the subspecies status of extinct pronghorn populations that historically inhabited southern California, USA, and northern Baja California, Mexico. To address this uncertainty, we genotyped museum specimens and conducted phylogenetic and population genetic analyses of historical data in the context of 3 contemporary pronghorn populations. The historical northern Baja California pronghorn share the most ancestry with contemporary Peninsular pronghorn, whereas pronghorn in southern California share more ancestry with contemporary American (A. a. americana) pronghorn. For reintroductions into northern Baja California, the Peninsular subspecies is more appropriate based on museum genetic data. For reintroductions into Southern California, ecological and genetic factors are both important, as the subspecies most genetically related to historical populations (American) may not be well-adapted to the hot, low-elevation deserts of the reintroduction area. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.     

Migration patterns of pronghorn in southwestern North Dakota

Wildlife managers need empirical data about pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) movements in North Dakota to assess whether mid-summer surveys represent occupancy of pronghorn in hunting units during the fall hunting season. Using data from 121 radiocollared pronghorn we evaluated patterns of pronghorn migrations in southwestern North Dakota from 2004 to 2007. Pronghorn exhibited 2 primary movement patterns between summer and winter ranges: migrations >15 km (45%) and movement <15 km (55%). Most migratory pronghorn moved northeast or east in the spring and southwest or west in the fall. Average distance moved for migratory pronghorn was 70.6 km (range = 17.4–253 km). Mean date of pronghorn migration in spring was 20 March (SD = 20 days) and in fall was 22 October (SD = 17 days). Nearly all migratory pronghorn (97%) returned to within 15 km of their previous summer range, whereas only 61% of pronghorn returned to within 15 km of their previous winter range. Most pronghorn moved across hunting and survey unit boundaries; however, only 7 fall migrations occurred between the aerial survey and the hunting season. During years of our study, the mid-summer survey provided representative information about hunting unit occupancy of radiocollared pronghorn for the fall hunting season. © 2011 The Wildlife Society     

Effects of large-scale removal of coyotes on pronghorn and mule deer productivity and abundance

We tested the hypothesis that predation by coyotes (Canis latrans) impacts pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) populations. We did so by examining the effects of coyote removal on pronghorn and mule deer populations within 12 large areas (>10,500 km²) located in Wyoming and Utah during 2007 and 2008. Pronghorn productivity (fawn to adult female ratio) and abundance were positively correlated with the number of coyotes removed and removal effort (hours spent hunting coyotes from aircraft) although the correlation between pronghorn productivity and removal effort was not statistically significant (P = 0.08). Mule deer productivity and abundance were not correlated with either the number of coyotes removed or removal effort. Coyote removal conducted during the winter and spring provided greater benefit than removals conducted during the prior fall or summer. Our results suggest that coyote removal conducted over large areas increases fawn survival and abundance of pronghorn but not mule deer. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

The Potential Impact of Disease on the Migratory Structure of a Partially Migratory Passerine Population

Since its introduction into eastern North America in the 1940s, the eastern population of house finches (Carpodacus mexicanus) has become partially migratory, unlike its nonmigratory source population in southern California (Able and Belthoff in Proc. R. Soc. Lond. 265 (1410), 2063–2071, 1998; Belthoff and Gauthreaux in Condor 93, 374–382, 1991). The infectious disease mycoplasmal conjunctivitis (pathogen Mycoplasma gallisepticum or “MG”), which has been monitored in the house finch population since its appearance around 1993 (Dhondt et al. in J. Wild. Dis. 34 (2), 265–280, 1998), may induce higher mortality rates among populations in more northerly latitudes relative to more southerly populations. Here, we investigate the potential impact of this differential disease mortality on the migratory structure of the eastern house finch population using an epidemic modeling approach. Analytical and computational results suggest the ongoing MG epidemic in the eastern house finch could lead to increases in the percentage of and the total number of migrating individuals in a population despite overall population declines, assuming relatively high winter mortality rates in the north eastern part of their range. These results also suggest that empirical evidence of such a change in migratory structure would be most noticeable in northerly inland populations that showed significant declines following the initial outbreak of MG in the east.     

Survival probabilities and movements of harbor seals in central California

Harbor seal numbers and population trajectories differ by location in central California. Within San Francisco Bay (SFB) counts have been relatively stable since the 1972 Marine Mammal Protection Act, but in coastal areas like Tomales Bay (TB), counts increased before stabilizing in the 1990s. Emigration, poor survival, and environmental effects have been hypothesized as contributors to differences between trajectories; however, basic demographic data were not available to evaluate these hypotheses. We monitored 32 radio‐tagged adult females (SFB n = 17, TB n = 15) for 20 mo (2011–2013), and estimated survival, resight, and movement probabilities using mark‐resight analyses and multistate mark‐resight models. Annual survival probability for both sites was 0.90 (95% CI = 0.18–0.99). Six seals were observed moving between locations resulting in an estimated probability of 0.042 (95% CI = 0.023–0.076) per month equal movement between sites. Resight probability was less in SFB relative to TB, likely due to differential haul‐out access, area surveyed, visibility, and resight effort. Because of wide confidence intervals and low precision of these first estimates of adult female harbor seal survival in California, this demographic must be further examined to dismiss its contribution to differing population trajectories. Using aerial survey data, we estimated 950 harbor seals in SFB (95% CI = 715–1,184) confirming numbers are still stable.     

Proximate Cues for a Short-Distance Migratory Species: an Application of Survival Analysis

ABSTRACT Investigation of bird migration has often highlighted the importance of external factors in determining timing of migration. However, little distinction has been made between short- and long-distance migrants and between local and flight birds (passage migrants) in describing migration chronology. In addition, measures of food abundance as a proximate factor influencing timing of migration are lacking in studies of migration chronology. To address the relationship between environmental variables and timing of migration, we quantified the relative importance of proximate external factors on migration chronology of local American woodcock (Scolopax minor), a short distance migrant, using event-time analysis methods (survival analysis). We captured 1,094 woodcock local to our study sites in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin (USA) during autumn 2002–2004 and documented 786 departure dates for these birds. Photoperiod appeared to provide an initial proximate cue for timing of departure. Moon phase was important in modifying timing of departure, which may serve as a navigational aid in piloting and possibly orientation. Local synoptic weather variables also contributed to timing of departure by changing the rate of departure from our study sites. We found no evidence that food availability influenced timing of woodcock departure. Our results suggest that woodcock use a conservative photoperiod-controlled strategy with proximate modifiers for timing of migration rather than relying on abundance of their primary food, earthworms. Managing harvest pressure on local birds by adjusting season lengths may be an effective management tool with consistent migration patterns from year to year based on photoperiod.     

Winter Distribution,Movements, and Annual Survival of Radiomarked Vancouver Canada Geese in Southeast Alaska

ABSTRACT Management of Pacific Flyway Canada geese (Branta canadensis) requires information on winter distribution of different populations. Recoveries of tarsus bands from Vancouver Canada geese (B. canadensis fulva) marked in southeast Alaska, USA, ≥4 decades ago suggested that ≥83% of the population was non-migratory and that annual adult survival was high (Ŝ = 0.836). However, recovery distribution of tarsus bands was potentially biased due to geographic differences in harvest intensity in the Pacific Flyway. Also, winter distribution of Vancouver Canada geese could have shifted since the 1960s, as has occurred for some other populations of Canada geese. Because winter distribution and annual survival of this population had not recently been evaluated, we surgically implanted very high frequency radiotransmitters in 166 adult female Canada geese in southeast Alaska. We captured Vancouver Canada geese during molt at 2 sites where adults with goslings were present (breeding areas) and 2 sites where we observed nonbreeding birds only. During winter radiotracking flights in southeast Alaska, we detected 98% of 85 females marked at breeding areas and 83% of 70 females marked at nonbreeding sites, excluding 11 females that died prior to the onset of winter radiotracking. We detected no radiomarked females in coastal British Columbia, or western Washington and Oregon, USA. Most (70%) females moved ≤30 km between November and March. Our model-averaged estimate of annual survival (Ŝ = 0.844, SE = 0.050) was similar to the estimate of annual survival of geese marked from 1956 to 1960. Likely <2% of Vancouver Canada geese that nest in southeast Alaska migrate to winter areas in Oregon or Washington where they could intermix with Canada geese from other populations in the Pacific Flyway. Because annual survival of adult Vancouver Canada geese was high and showed evidence of long-term consistency, managers should examine how reproductive success and recruitment may affect the population.     

Survival and Body Condition of Raccoons at the Edge of the Range

ABSTRACT We investigated the influence of intrinsic and extrinsic variables on overwinter survival of raccoons (Procyon lotor; n = 114) at the northern edge of their distribution. A Cox proportional hazard model identified winter severity as the variable with the greatest influence on raccoon survival (β = 1.08). Autumn body condition estimates (20.5 ± 0.46% total body fat) were relatively stable across years even though we observed large differences in autumn food indices. Variations in autumn body condition did not explain heterogeneity observed in overwinter survival nor the spring condition in which raccoons emerged. Relatively constant autumn body condition suggests reliable availability of anthropogenic food resources may negate variations observed in natural food items on which raccoons rely during hyperphagia. Conversely, spring body condition did vary among years and was highly correlated with winter severity. Accordingly, we also observed a strong inverse relationship with overwinter survival and winter severity. Our findings indicate winter climatic constraints are important factors governing the northern limit of raccoon distribution and changes in winter severity could have important implications in further range expansion of this species.     

Survival of Breeding Pacific Common Eiders on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta,Alaska

ABSTRACT Populations of Pacific common eiders (Somateria mollissima v-nigrum) breeding in Alaska, USA, have declined markedly over the past 40 years. We studied survival of adult female Pacific common eiders using capture—recapture of nesting hens at 3 sites on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), Alaska from 1994 to 2004. We used data consisting of 268 recapture events from 361 uniquely marked individuals to investigate temporal, geographic, and environmental variation in adult female survival. Our results suggest apparent annual survival of adult eiders from the YKD was high (0.892, SE = 0.022) and spatially and temporally invariant (σ² = 0.005), a pattern consistent with other long-lived marine birds. Moreover, our results suggest adult survival may be functionally fixed for Pacific common eiders, and at the present, adult survival may be relatively unresponsive to environmental or management perturbations. Our data did not support hypothesized variation in survival relative to mortality factors such as predation on breeding grounds, physiologic costs of reproduction, and wintering conditions. Although changes in adult survival likely have a large potential effect on prospective population growth, our results suggest viable management actions aimed at increasing survival may be extremely limited.     

Survival,Birth Characteristics,and Cause-Specific Mortality of White-Tailed Deer Neonates

ABSTRACT Understanding survival of and factors that may predispose newborn deer (Odocoileus spp.) to mortality contribute to improved understanding of population dynamics. We captured free-ranging white-tailed deer neonates (n = 66) of radiocollared females that survived severe (Winter Severity Index [WSI] = 153) and mild (WSI = 45) winters 2000–2001 and 2001–2002. Mean dates of birth (26 May ± 1.7 [SE] days and 26 May ± 1.3 days) and estimated birth-masses of 2.8 ± 0.1 kg and 3.0 ± 0.1 kg were similar between springs 2001 (n = 31) and 2002 (n = 35), respectively. Neonate survival was similar between years; pooled mortality rates of neonates were 0.14, 0.11, and 0.20 at 0–1 weeks, 2–4 weeks, and 5–12 weeks of age, respectively, and overall survival rate for neonates to 12 weeks of age was 0.47. Predation accounted for 86% of mortality; the remaining 14% of deaths were attributed to unknown causes. Black bears (Ursus americanus) were responsible for 57% and 38% of predation of neonates in springs 2001 and 2002, respectively, whereas bobcats (Felis rufus) accounted for 50% in 2002. Wolves (Canis lupus) accounted for only 5% of predator-related deaths. Low birth-mass, smaller body size, and elevated concentrations of serum urea nitrogen (26.1 ± 2.6 mg/dL vs 19.3 ± 0.8 mg/dL) and tumor necrosis factor-α (82.6 ± 78.6 pg/mL vs. 2.3 ± 0.5 pg/mL) were associated with neonates that died within 1 week of birth. Even though we did not detect a direct relation between winter severity and birth or blood characteristics of neonates, evidence suggests that birth-mass and key serum indices of neonate nutrition were associated with their early mortality. Thus, managers can make more informed predictions regarding survival and cause-specific mortality of fawns and adjust management strategies to better control deer population goals.     

Survival rates in a natural population of the damselfly Ceriagrion tenellum: effects of sex and female phenotype

1. Ceriagrion tenellum females show genetic colour polymorphism. Androchrome (erythrogastrum) females are brightly (male‐like) coloured while gynochrome females (typica and melanogastrum) show cryptic colouration. 2. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the existence of more than one female morph in damselfly populations. The reproductive isolation and intraspecific mimicry hypotheses predict greater survival of gynochrome females, while the density dependent hypothesis predicts no differential survival between morphs. 3. Mature males had greater recapture probability than females while the survival probability was similar for both sexes. Survival and recapture rates were similar for androchrome and gynochrome females. 4. Gynochrome females showed greater mortality or migration rate than androchrome females during the pre‐reproductive period. This result is not predicted by the above hypotheses or by the null hypothesis that colour polymorphism is only maintained by random factors: founder effects, genetic drift, and migration.     

Sensitivity Analyses of a Population Projection Model of Ring-Necked Pheasants

Abstract A large literature exists on population dynamics of ring-necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) in North America, but there has not been an attempt to formulate a matrix model nor a sensitivity analysis of the relationships between vital rates and population finite growth rate (Λ) that can be used to guide management. We summarized demographic data available from a 5-year field study in Iowa, USA, collected in Kossuth County (low composition of perennial habitat) and Palo Alto County (high composition of perennial habitat) into a 2-stage (young and adult) matrix projection model. We estimated Λ₁ (the dominant eigenvalue of the deterministic matrix), the stable age distribution (ω), relative reproductive value vector (n̈), other demographic parameters, and Λ_iid, a bootstrap estimate of growth that includes interannual variation in life history parameters. We analyzed the relative importance of vital rates on population growth rate using sensitivity and elasticity of both matrix elements and lower-level parameters such as winter survival and nest success. We first characterized general life history using averaged data from both areas and all years that yielded Λ₁ = 1.086, and a stable stage distribution of. Minimum success of the initial nesting attempt (H₁) that would maintain Λ ≥ 1 under average conditions was estimated to be 42%. Changes in Λ₁ were most sensitive to survival of chicks during brood rearing (S_B), followed in importance by survival during the subsequent winter (S_W), followed by H₁. We followed the general analyses with analyses that helped us to focus on the differences in the landscapes of northwest Iowa. Λ_iid was ≥1 in only 9% of simulations of data from Kossuth whereas estimated Λ_iid was ≥1 in 88% of simulations from Palo Alto. Our analyses of the relative importance and interactions between S_B, S_W, and total recruitment (M, including H₁ and renesting), if combined with data more specific to a local area, would guide management aimed at affecting multiple life history stages whose relative importance will vary across the landscape.     

Patterns of Mortality and Factors Influencing Survival of a Recently Restored Elk Population in Ontario,Canada

This study examined patterns of mortality and determinants of survival among elk recently restored to four sites in Ontario, Canada (1998–2005). We predicted that: (1) elk located in release sites closer to the core of their historic range would have higher survival; (2) survival would increase as an animal's time and experience on the landscape increased; and (3) survival rates would decline as animals moved farther away from the release site. During the study, 443 elk were radiocollared and released; 218 mortalities were documented. Predation by wolves was the most important proximate cause of mortality, followed by death due to injuries from translocation and/or capture myopathy, accidents, emaciation, poaching, and Parelaphostrongylus tenuis infection. Overall, annual survival of elk across Ontario ranged from 0.45 (0.37–0.53) to 0.81 (0.66–0.90), with rates being lowest in the years immediately following release and highest in the final years of the study; this pattern was due to high initial mortality from translocation injuries and/or capture myopathy and possibly lack of familiarity with novel habitat. Model‐averaged hazards further support this finding, as the most important factor influencing elk survival was the length of holding period, with elk released after limited holding being less likely to survive than those held for longer periods. Our results suggest that mortalities caused by capture myopathy and transportation‐related injuries are important sources of risk for translocated elk. The method of introduction to the novel landscape and behavior in the first year should be accommodated via soft‐release and appropriate release areas.