The moderately efficient enzyme: evolutionary and physicochemical trends shaping enzyme parameters

The kinetic parameters of enzymes are key to understanding the rate and specificity of most biological processes. Although specific trends are frequently studied for individual enzymes, global trends are rarely addressed. We performed an analysis of k(cat) and K(M) values of several thousand enzymes collected from the literature. We found that the "average enzyme" exhibits a k(cat) of ~0 s(-1) and a k(cat)/K(M) of ~10(5) s(-1) M(-1), much below the diffusion limit and the characteristic textbook portrayal of kinetically superior enzymes. Why do most enzymes exhibit moderate catalytic efficiencies? Maximal rates may not evolve in cases where weaker selection pressures are expected. We find, for example, that enzymes operating in secondary metabolism are, on average, ~30-fold slower than those of central metabolism. We also find indications that the physicochemical properties of substrates affect the kinetic parameters. Specifically, low molecular mass and hydrophobicity appear to limit K(M) optimization. In accordance, substitution with phosphate, CoA, or other large modifiers considerably lowers the K(M) values of enzymes utilizing the substituted substrates. It therefore appears that both evolutionary selection pressures and physicochemical constraints shape the kinetic parameters of enzymes. It also seems likely that the catalytic efficiency of some enzymes toward their natural substrates could be increased in many cases by natural or laboratory evolution.     

Genome size correlates with reproductive fitness in seed beetles

The ultimate cause of genome size (GS) evolution in eukaryotes remains a major and unresolved puzzle in evolutionary biology. Large-scale comparative studies have failed to find consistent correlations between GS and organismal properties, resulting in the ‘C-value paradox’. Current hypotheses for the evolution of GS are based either on the balance between mutational events and drift or on natural selection acting upon standing genetic variation in GS. It is, however, currently very difficult to evaluate the role of selection because within-species studies that relate variation in life-history traits to variation in GS are very rare. Here, we report phylogenetic comparative analyses of GS evolution in seed beetles at two distinct taxonomic scales, which combines replicated estimation of GS with experimental assays of life-history traits and reproductive fitness. GS showed rapid and bidirectional evolution across species, but did not show correlated evolution with any of several indices of the relative importance of genetic drift. Within a single species, GS varied by 4–5% across populations and showed positive correlated evolution with independent estimates of male and female reproductive fitness. Collectively, the phylogenetic pattern of GS diversification across and within species in conjunction with the pattern of correlated evolution between GS and fitness provide novel support for the tenet that natural selection plays a key role in shaping GS evolution.     

Connectivity between Catalytic Landscapes of the Metallo-β-Lactamase Superfamily

The expansion of functions in an enzyme superfamily is thought to occur through recruitment of latent promiscuous functions within existing enzymes. Thus, the promiscuous activities of enzymes represent connections between different catalytic landscapes and provide an additional layer of evolutionary connectivity between functional families alongside their sequence and structural relationships. Functional connectivity has been observed between individual functional families; however, little is known about how catalytic landscapes are connected throughout a highly diverged superfamily. Here, we describe a superfamily-wide analysis of evolutionary and functional connectivity in the metallo-β-lactamase (MBL) superfamily. We investigated evolutionary connections between functional families and related evolutionary to functional connectivity; 24 enzymes from 15 distinct functional families were challenged against 10 catalytically distinct reactions. We revealed that enzymes of this superfamily are generally promiscuous, as each enzyme catalyzes on average 1.5 reactions in addition to its native one. Catalytic landscapes in the MBL superfamily overlap substantially; each reaction is connected on average to 3.7 other reactions whereas some connections appear to be unrelated to recent evolutionary events and occur between chemically distinct reactions. These findings support the idea that the highly distinct reactions in the MBL superfamily could have evolved from a common ancestor traversing a continuous network via promiscuous enzymes. Several functional connections (e.g., the lactonase/phosphotriesterase and phosphonatase/phosphodiesterase/arylsulfatase reactions) are also observed in structurally and evolutionary distinct superfamilies, suggesting that these catalytic landscapes are substantially connected. Our results show that new enzymatic functions could evolve rapidly from the current diversity of enzymes and range of promiscuous activities.     

The mutation matrix and the evolution of evolvability

Evolvability is a key characteristic of any evolving system, and the concept of evolvability serves as a unifying theme in a wide range of disciplines related to evolutionary theory. The field of quantitative genetics provides a framework for the exploration of evolvability with the promise to produce insights of global importance. With respect to the quantitative genetics of biological systems, the parameters most relevant to evolvability are the G-matrix, which describes the standing additive genetic variances and covariances for a suite of traits, and the M-matrix, which describes the effects of new mutations on genetic variances and covariances. A population's immediate response to selection is governed by the G-matrix. However, evolvability is also concerned with the ability of mutational processes to produce adaptive variants, and consequently the M-matrix is a crucial quantitative genetic parameter. Here, we explore the evolution of evolvability by using analytical theory and simulation-based models to examine the evolution of the mutational correlation, r(mu), the key parameter determining the nature of genetic constraints imposed by M. The model uses a diploid, sexually reproducing population of finite size experiencing stabilizing selection on a two-trait phenotype. We assume that the mutational correlation is a third quantitative trait determined by multiple additive loci. An individual's value of the mutational correlation trait determines the correlation between pleiotropic effects of new alleles when they arise in that individual. Our results show that the mutational correlation, despite the fact that it is not involved directly in the specification of an individual's fitness, does evolve in response to selection on the bivariate phenotype. The mutational variance exhibits a weak tendency to evolve to produce alignment of the M-matrix with the adaptive landscape, but is prone to erratic fluctuations as a consequence of genetic drift. The interpretation of this result is that the evolvability of the population is capable of a response to selection, and whether this response results in an increase or decrease in evolvability depends on the way in which the bivariate phenotypic optimum is expected to move. Interestingly, both analytical and simulation results show that the mutational correlation experiences disruptive selection, with local fitness maxima at -1 and +1. Genetic drift counteracts the tendency for the mutational correlation to persist at these extreme values, however. Our results also show that an evolving M-matrix tends to increase stability of the G-matrix under most circumstances. Previous studies of G-matrix stability, which assume nonevolving M-matrices, consequently may overestimate the level of instability of G relative to what might be expected in natural systems. Overall, our results indicate that evolvability can evolve in natural systems in a way that tends to result in alignment of the G-matrix, the M-matrix, and the adaptive landscape, and that such evolution tends to stabilize the G-matrix over evolutionary time.     

Using mechanism similarity to understand enzyme evolution

Enzyme reactions take place in the active site through a series of catalytic steps, which are collectively termed the enzyme mechanism. The catalytic step is thereby the individual unit to consider for the purposes of building new enzyme mechanisms — i.e. through the mix and match of individual catalytic steps, new enzyme mechanisms and reactions can be conceived. In the case of natural evolution, it has been shown that new enzyme functions have emerged through the tweaking of existing mechanisms by the addition, removal, or modification of some catalytic steps, while maintaining other steps of the mechanism intact. Recently, we have extracted and codified the information on the catalytic steps of hundreds of enzymes in a machine-readable way, with the aim of automating this kind of evolutionary analysis. In this paper, we illustrate how these data, which we called the “rules of enzyme catalysis”, can be used to identify similar catalytic steps across enzymes that differ in their overall function and/or structural folds. A discussion on a set of three enzymes that share part of their mechanism is used as an exemplar to illustrate how this approach can reveal divergent and convergent evolution of enzymes at the mechanistic level.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12551-022-01022-9.     

Evolution of dominance in metabolic pathways

Dominance is a form of phenotypic robustness to mutations. Understanding how such robustness can evolve provides a window into how the relation between genotype and phenotype can evolve. As such, the issue of dominance evolution is a question about the evolution of inheritance systems. Attempts at explaining the evolution of dominance have run into two problems. One is that selection for dominance is sensitive to the frequency of heterozygotes. Accordingly, dominance cannot evolve unless special conditions lead to the presence of a high frequency of mutant alleles in the population. Second, on the basis of theoretical results in metabolic control analysis, it has been proposed that metabolic systems possess inherent constraints. These hypothetical constraints imply the default manifestation of dominance of the wild type with respect to the effects of mutations at most loci. Hence, some biologists have maintained that an evolutionary explanation is not relevant to dominance. In this article, we put into question the hypothetical assumption of default metabolic constraints. We show that this assumption is based on an exclusion of important nonlinear interactions that can occur between enzymes in a pathway. With an a priori exclusion of such interactions, the possibility of epistasis and hence dominance modification is eliminated. We present a theoretical model that integrates enzyme kinetics and population genetics to address dominance evolution in metabolic pathways. In the case of mutations that decrease enzyme concentrations, and given the mechanistic constraints of Michaelis-Menten-type catalysis, it is shown that dominance of the wild type can be extensively modified in a two-enzyme pathway. Moreover, we discuss analytical results indicating that the conclusions from the two-enzyme case can be generalized to any number of enzymes. Dominance modification is achieved chiefly through changes in enzyme concentrations or kinetic parameters such as k(cat), both of which can alter saturation levels. Low saturation translates into higher levels of dominance with respect to mutations that decrease enzyme concentrations. Furthermore, it is shown that in the two-enzyme example, dominance evolves as a by-product of selection in a manner that is insensitive to the frequency of heterozygotes. Using variation in k(cat) as an example of modifier mutations, it is shown that the latter can have direct fitness effects in addition to dominance modification effects. Dominance evolution can occur in a frequency-insensitive manner as a result of selection for such dual-effects alleles. This type of selection may prove to be a common pattern for the evolution of phenotypic robustness to mutations.     

Selection analysis on the rapid evolution of a secondary sexual trait

Evolutionary analyses of population translocations (experimental or accidental) have been important in demonstrating speed of evolution because they subject organisms to abrupt environmental changes that create an episode of selection. However, the strength of selection in such studies is rarely measured, limiting our understanding of the evolutionary process. This contrasts with long-term, mark–recapture studies of unmanipulated populations that measure selection directly, yet rarely reveal evolutionary change. Here, we present a study of experimental evolution of male colour in Trinidadian guppies where we tracked both evolutionary change and individual-based measures of selection. Guppies were translocated from a predator-rich to a low-predation environment within the same stream system. We used a combination of common garden experiments and monthly sampling of individuals to measure the phenotypic and genetic divergence of male coloration between ancestral and derived fish. Results show rapid evolutionary increases in orange coloration in both populations (1 year or three generations), replicating the results of previous studies. Unlike previous studies, we linked this evolution to an individual-based analysis of selection. By quantifying individual reproductive success and survival, we show, for the first time, that males with more orange and black pigment have higher reproductive success, but males with more black pigment also have higher risk of mortality. The net effect of selection is thus an advantage of orange but not black coloration, as reflected in the evolutionary response. This highlights the importance of considering all components of fitness when understanding the evolution of sexually selected traits in the wild.     

Enzymatic oxidation of manganese ions catalysed by laccase

The principal possibility of enzymatic oxidation of manganese ions by fungal Trametes hirsuta laccase in the presence of oxalate and tartrate ions, whereas not for plant Rhus vernicifera laccase, was demonstrated. Detailed kinetic studies of the oxidation of different enzyme substrates along with oxygen reduction by the enzymes show that in air-saturated solutions the rate of oxygen reduction by the T2/T3 cluster of laccases is fast enough not to be a readily noticeable contribution to the overall turnover rate. Indeed, the limiting step of the oxidation of high-redox potential compounds, such as chelated manganese ions, is the electron transfer from the electron donor to the T1 site of the fungal laccase.     

Low Selection Pressure Aids the Evolution of Cooperative Ribozyme Mutations in Cells

Understanding the evolution of functional RNA molecules is important for our molecular understanding of biology. Here we tested experimentally how two evolutionary parameters, selection pressure and recombination, influenced the evolution of an evolving RNA population. This was done using four parallel evolution experiments that employed low or gradually increasing selection pressure, and recombination events either at the end or dispersed throughout the evolution. As model system, a trans-splicing group I intron ribozyme was evolved in Escherichia coli cells over 12 rounds of selection and amplification, including mutagenesis and recombination. The low selection pressure resulted in higher efficiency of the evolved ribozyme populations, whereas differences in recombination did not have a strong effect. Five mutations were responsible for the highest efficiency. The first mutation swept quickly through all four evolving populations, whereas the remaining four mutations accumulated later and more efficiently under low selection pressure. To determine why low selection pressure aided this evolution, all evolutionary intermediates between the wild type and the 5-mutation variant were constructed, and their activities at three different selection pressures were determined. The resulting fitness profiles showed a high cooperativity among the four late mutations, which can explain why high selection pressure led to inefficient evolution. These results show experimentally how low selection pressure can benefit the evolution of cooperative mutations in functional RNAs.     

Rapid enzyme kinetic assays of individualDrosophila and comparisons of field-caughtD. melanogaster andD. simulans

Techniques for performing numerous enzyme kinetic assays with minimum time and effort would be valuable to studies of the evolutionary genetics of metabolic control and the quantitative genetics of determinants of kinetic parameters. Microtiter plate readers have been used for a variety of repetitious analytical techniques, and instruments are available that can take repetitive readings with sufficient speed to perform kinetic assays. The ability of these instruments to assay rapidly the kinetic properties of small samples makes them potentially useful for a number of problems in population genetics. While the ability to handle large numbers of samples is very attractive, the small sample volumes and optical imprecision of microtiter plates result in some sacrifice in accuracy. This paper presents methods for performing kinetic assays on individual field-caughtDrosophila, quantifies the precision of these methods, and characterizes differences amongDrosophila melanogaster andD. simulans from samples caught in California and Pennsylvania. Comparisons between field-caught and laboratory rearedD. melanogaster show that most of the characters are very similar, with the exception of GPDH, which has a threefold higher mean activity among field-caught flies. The phenotypic correlations are presented with a brief discussion of their relevance to assessing the evolution of metabolic control of these enzymes.This work was supported by Grant BSR 8717495 from the National Science Foundation and by Grants HD 18379 and HD 00743 from the U.S. Public Health Service.     

Characterizing the evolution of genetic variance using genetic covariance tensors

Determining how genetic variance changes under selection in natural populations has proved to be a very resilient problem in evolutionary genetics. In the same way that understanding the availability of genetic variance within populations requires the simultaneous consideration of genetic variance in sets of functionally related traits, determining how genetic variance changes under selection in natural populations will require ascertaining how genetic variance–covariance (G) matrices evolve. Here, we develop a geometric framework using higher-order tensors, which enables the empirical characterization of how G matrices have diverged among populations. We then show how divergence among populations in genetic covariance structure can then be associated with divergence in selection acting on those traits using key equations from evolutionary theory. Using estimates of G matrices of eight male sexually selected traits from nine geographical populations of Drosophila serrata, we show that much of the divergence in genetic variance occurred in a single trait combination, a conclusion that could not have been reached by examining variation among the individual elements of the nine G matrices. Divergence in G was primarily in the direction of the major axes of genetic variance within populations, suggesting that genetic drift may be a major cause of divergence in genetic variance among these populations.     

Lateral Gene Transfer Acts As an Evolutionary Shortcut to Efficient C4 Biochemistry

The adaptation of proteins for novel functions often requires changes in their kinetics via amino acid replacement. This process can require multiple mutations, and therefore extended periods of selection. The transfer of genes among distinct species might speed up the process, by providing proteins already adapted for the novel function. However, this hypothesis remains untested in multicellular eukaryotes. The grass Alloteropsis is an ideal system to test this hypothesis due to its diversity of genes encoding phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase, an enzyme that catalyzes one of the key reactions in the C₄ pathway. Different accessions of Alloteropsis either use native isoforms relatively recently co-opted from other functions or isoforms that were laterally acquired from distantly related species that evolved the C₄ trait much earlier. By comparing the enzyme kinetics, we show that native isoforms with few amino acid replacements have substrate K_M values similar to the non-C₄ ancestral form, but exhibit marked increases in catalytic efficiency. The co-option of native isoforms was therefore followed by rapid catalytic improvements, which appear to rely on standing genetic variation observed within one species. Native C₄ isoforms with more amino acid replacements exhibit additional changes in affinities, suggesting that the initial catalytic improvements are followed by gradual modifications. Finally, laterally acquired genes show both strong increases in catalytic efficiency and important changes in substrate handling. We conclude that the transfer of genes among distant species sharing the same physiological novelty creates an evolutionary shortcut toward more efficient enzymes, effectively accelerating evolution.     

Molecular and quantitative trait variation within and among small fragmented populations of the endangered plant species Psilopeganum sinense

Background and Aims

Natural selection and genetic drift are important evolutionary forces in determining genetic and phenotypic differentiation in plant populations. The extent to which these two distinct evolutionary forces affect locally adaptive quantitative traits has been well studied in common plant and animal species. However, we know less about how quantitative traits respond to selection pressures and drift in endangered species that have small population sizes and fragmented distributions. To address this question, this study assessed the relative strengths of selection and genetic drift in shaping population differentiation of phenotypic traits in Psilopeganum sinense, a naturally rare and recently endangered plant species.

Methods

Population differentiation at five quantitative traits (Q_ST) obtained from a common garden experiment was compared with differentiation at putatively neutral microsatellite markers (F_ST) in seven populations of P. sinense. Q_ST estimates were derived using a Bayesian hierarchical variance component method.

Key Results

Trait-specific Q_ST values were equal to or lower than F_ST. Neutral genetic diversity was not correlated with quantitative genetic variation within the populations of P. sinense.

Conclusions

Despite the prevalent empirical evidence for Q_ST > F_ST, the results instead suggest a definitive role of stabilizing selection and drift leading to phenotypic differentiation among small populations. Three traits exhibited a significantly lower Q_ST relative to F_ST, suggesting that populations of P. sinense might have experienced stabilizing selection for the same optimal phenotypes despite large geographical distances between populations and habitat fragmentation. For the other two traits, Q_ST estimates were of the same magnitude as F_ST, indicating that divergence in these traits could have been achieved by genetic drift alone. The lack of correlation between molecular marker and quantitative genetic variation suggests that sophisticated considerations are required for the inference of conservation measures of P. sinense from neutral genetic markers.     

Intriguing effects of selection intensity on the evolution of prosocial behaviors

In many models of evolving populations, genetic drift has an outsized role relative to natural selection, or vice versa. While there are many scenarios in which one of these two assumptions is reasonable, intermediate balances between these forces are also biologically relevant. In this study, we consider some natural axioms for modeling intermediate selection intensities, and we explore how to quantify the long-term evolutionary dynamics of such a process. To illustrate the sensitivity of evolutionary dynamics to drift and selection, we show that there can be a “sweet spot” for the balance of these two forces, with sufficient noise for rare mutants to become established and sufficient selection to spread. This balance allows prosocial traits to evolve in evolutionary models that were previously thought to be unconducive to the emergence and spread of altruistic behaviors. Furthermore, the effects of selection intensity on long-run evolutionary outcomes in these settings, such as when there is global competition for reproduction, can be highly non-monotonic. Although intermediate selection intensities (neither weak nor strong) are notoriously difficult to study analytically, they are often biologically relevant; and the results we report suggest that they can elicit novel and rich dynamics in the evolution of prosocial behaviors.     

Mutualism favours higher host specificity than does antagonism in plant–herbivore interaction

Coevolved mutualisms often exhibit high levels of partner specificity. Obligate pollination mutualisms, such as the fig–fig wasp and yucca–yucca moth systems, represent remarkable examples of such highly species-specific associations; however, the evolutionary processes underlying these patterns are poorly understood. The prevailing hypothesis suggests that the high degree of specificity in pollinating seed parasites is the fortuitous result of specialization in their ancestors because these insects are derived from endophytic herbivores that are themselves highly host-specific. Conversely, we show that in the Glochidion–Epicephala obligate pollination mutualism, pollinators are more host-specific than are closely related endophytic leaf-feeding taxa, which co-occur with Epicephala on the same Glochidion hosts. This difference is probably not because of shifts in larval diet (i.e. from leaf- to seed-feeding), because seed-eating lepidopterans other than Epicephala do not show the same degree of host specificity as Epicephala. Species of a tentative sister group of Epicephala each attack several distantly related plants, suggesting that the evolution of strict host specificity is tied to the evolution of pollinator habit. These results suggest that mutualists can attain higher host specificity than that of their parasitic ancestors and that coevolutionary selection can be a strong promoter of extreme reciprocal specialization in mutualisms.     

Effect of evolution on the kinetic properties of enzymes

1. The likely effect of a selective pressure in the direction of higher reaction fluxes on rate parameters for enzyme reactions confirming to Michaelis-Menten kinetics has been analyzed on the basis of relationships which take into account the changes in metabolite concentrations that must be associated with mutational changes of the kinetic properties of enzymes participating in metabolic pathways. 2. Arguments are presented to show that such a pressure should tend to increase kcat, whereas Km may decrease or increase depending on what stage of evolutionary development the enzyme has reached. While the early evolution of enzymes must have been associated with decreasing Km values, an increase of both kcat and Km is mandatory for enhancement of the rate performance of extensively developed enzymes which exhibit kcat/Km ratios approaching the diffusion-control limit. The latter limit is dependent on the equilibrium constant for the catalysed reaction. 3. Enzymes which have reached the diffusion-control limit for their second-order rate performance cannot be considered as perfectly evolved catalysts, but may well undergo further development towards a higher catalytic efficiency in response to the improvement of other enzymes in the metabolic pathway with regard to the criterion of an enhanced reaction flux. Such evolution is associated with an increase of the metabolite levels in the pathway, and a simple model system is examined in order to illustrate the ultimate limits for the metabolite levels and reaction flux that may obtain. 4. The theoretical evidence presented lends no support to previous proposals that certain enzymes (e.g. triosephosphate isomerase), or enzymes showing certain kinetic characteristics (e.g. kcat/Km quotients approaching 10(9) s-1 M-1), have reached the end of their evolutionary development. A claim that any specific enzyme has reached catalytic perfection would provide the unreasonable inference that all enzymes participating in intermediary metabolism have reached catalytic perfection.     

Rehabilitation of faulty kinetic determinations and misassigned glycoside hydrolase family of retaining mechanism β-xylosidases

We obtained Cx1 from a commercial supplier, whose catalog listed it as a β-xylosidase of glycoside hydrolase family 43. NMR experiments indicate retention of anomeric configuration in its reaction stereochemistry, opposing the assignment of GH43, which follows an inverting mechanism. Partial protein sequencing indicates Cx1 is similar to but not identical to β-xylosidases of GH52, including Q09LZ0, that have retaining mechanisms. Q09LZ0 β-xylosidase had been characterized biochemically in kinetic reactions that contained Tris. We overproduced Q09LZ0 and demonstrated that Tris is a competitive inhibitor of the β-xylosidase. Also, the previous work used grossly incorrect extinction coefficients for product 4-nitrophenol. We redetermined kinetic parameters using reactions that omitted Tris and using correct extinction coefficients for 4-nitrophenol. Cx1 and Q09LZ0 β-xylosidases were thus shown to possess similar kinetic properties when acting on 4-nitrophenyl-β-d-xylopyranoside and xylobiose. k_cat pH profiles of Cx1 and Q09LZ0 acting on 4-nitrophenyl-β-d-xylopyranoside and xylobiose have patterns containing two rate increases with increasing acidity, not reported before for glycoside hydrolases. The dexylosylation step of 4-nitrophenyl-β-d-xylopyranoside hydrolysis mediated by Q09LZ0 is not rate determining for k_cat^4NPX.     

Where and when does a ring start and end? Testing the ring-species hypothesis in a species complex of Australian parrots

Speciation, despite ongoing gene flow can be studied directly in nature in ring species that comprise two reproductively isolated populations connected by a chain or ring of intergrading populations. We applied three tiers of spatio-temporal analysis (phylogeny/historical biogeography, phylogeography and landscape/population genetics) to the data from mitochondrial and nuclear genomes of eastern Australian parrots of the Crimson Rosella Platycercus elegans complex to understand the history and present genetic structure of the ring they have long been considered to form. A ring speciation hypothesis does not explain the patterns we have observed in our data (e.g. multiple genetic discontinuities, discordance in genotypic and phenotypic assignments where terminal differentiates meet). However, we cannot reject that a continuous circular distribution has been involved in the group's history or indeed that one was formed through secondary contact at the 'ring's' east and west; however, we reject a simple ring-species hypothesis as traditionally applied, with secondary contact only at its east. We discuss alternative models involving historical allopatry of populations. We suggest that population expansion shown by population genetics parameters in one of these isolates was accompanied by geographical range expansion, secondary contact and hybridization on the eastern and western sides of the ring. Pleistocene landscape and sea-level and habitat changes then established the birds' current distributions and range disjunctions. Populations now show idiosyncratic patterns of selection and drift. We suggest that selection and drift now drive evolution in different populations within what has been considered the ring.     

Evolution toward a new adaptive optimum: phenotypic evolution in a fossil stickleback lineage

Natural selection has almost certainly shaped many evolutionary trajectories documented in fossil lineages, but it has proven difficult to demonstrate this claim by analyzing sequences of evolutionary changes. In a recently published and particularly promising test case, an evolutionary time series of populations displaying armor reduction in a fossil stickleback lineage could not be consistently distinguished from a null model of neutral drift, despite excellent temporal resolution and an abundance of indirect evidence implicating natural selection. Here, we revisit this case study, applying analyses that differ from standard approaches in that: (1) we do not treat genetic drift as a null model, and instead assess neutral and adaptive explanations on equal footing using the Akaike Information Criterion; and (2) rather than constant directional selection, the adaptive scenario we consider is that of a population ascending a peak on the adaptive landscape, modeled as an Orstein-Uhlenbeck process. For all three skeletal features measured in the stickleback lineage, the adaptive model decisively outperforms neutral evolution, supporting a role for natural selection in the evolution of these traits. These results demonstrate that, at least under favorable circumstances, it is possible to infer in fossil lineages the relationship between evolutionary change and features of the adaptive landscape.