Fatal opioid overdoses during and shortly after hospital admissions in England: A case-crossover study

BackgroundHospital patients who use illicit opioids such as heroin may use drugs during an admission or leave the hospital in order to use drugs. There have been reports of patients found dead from drug poisoning on the hospital premises or shortly after leaving the hospital. This study examines whether hospital admission and discharge are associated with increased risk of opioid-related death.Methods and findingsWe conducted a case-crossover study of opioid-related deaths in England. Our study included 13,609 deaths between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2019 among individuals aged 18 to 64. For each death, we sampled 5 control days from the period 730 to 28 days before death. We used data from the national Hospital Episode Statistics database to determine the time proximity of deaths and control days to hospital admissions. We estimated the association between hospital admission and opioid-related death using conditional logistic regression, with a reference category of time neither admitted to the hospital nor within 14 days of discharge. A total of 236/13,609 deaths (1.7%) occurred following drug use while admitted to the hospital. The risk during hospital admissions was similar or lower than periods neither admitted to the hospital nor recently discharged, with odds ratios 1.03 (95% CI 0.87 to 1.21; p = 0.75) for the first 14 days of an admission and 0.41 (95% CI 0.30 to 0.56; p < 0.001) for days 15 onwards. 1,088/13,609 deaths (8.0%) occurred in the 14 days after discharge. The risk of opioid-related death increased in this period, with odds ratios of 4.39 (95% CI 3.75 to 5.14; p < 0.001) on days 1 to 2 after discharge and 2.09 (95% CI 1.92 to 2.28; p < 0.001) on days 3 to 14. 11,629/13,609 deaths (85.5%) did not occur close to a hospital admission, and the remaining 656/13,609 deaths (4.8%) occurred in hospital following admission due to drug poisoning. Risk was greater for patients discharged from psychiatric admissions, those who left the hospital against medical advice, and those leaving the hospital after admissions of 7 days or more. The main limitation of the method is that it does not control for time-varying health or drug use within individuals; therefore, hospital admissions coinciding with high-risk periods may in part explain the results.ConclusionsDischarge from the hospital is associated with an acute increase in the risk of opioid-related death, and 1 in 14 opioid-related deaths in England happens in the 2 weeks after the hospital discharge. This supports interventions that prevent early discharge and improve linkage with community drug treatment and harm reduction services.

In a case-crossover study, Dan Lewer and coauthors investigate factors associated with fatal opioid overdoses during and shortly after hospital admissions in England.     

Terminal cancer care and patients' preference for place of death: a prospective study.

OBJECTIVE--To assess the preference of terminally ill patients with cancer for their place of final care. DESIGN--Prospective study of randomly selected patients with cancer from hospital and the community who were expected to die within a year. Patients expected to live less than two months were interviewed at two week intervals; otherwise patients were interviewed monthly. Their main carer was interviewed three months after the patient''s death. SETTING--District general hospital, hospices, and patients'' homes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Stated preferred place of final care; actual place of death; reason for final hospital admission for those in hospital; community care provision required for home care. RESULTS--Of 98 patients approached, 84 (86%) agreed to be interviewed, of whom 70 (83%) died during the study and 59 (84%) stated a preferred place of final care: 34 (58%) wished to die at home given existing circumstances, 12 (20%) in hospital, 12 (20%) in a hospice, and one (2%) elsewhere. Their own home was the preferred place of care for 17 (94%) of the patients who died there, whereas of the 32 patients who died in hospital 22 (69%) had stated a preference to die elsewhere. Had circumstances been more favourable 67% (41) of patients would have preferred to die at home, 16% (10) in hospital, and 15% (9) in hospice. CONCLUSION--With a limited increase in community care 50% more patients with cancer could be supported to die at home, as they and their carers would prefer.     

Impact of community-orientated psychiatry on marriage and fertility of psychotic women

A large representative sample of psychotic women of reproductive age was selected from patients admitted to a London mental hospital during 1955–63 and followed up during the years of developing community care. Before first admission the probability of marriage of schizophrenics was three-quarters of that of corresponding normal women, and after admission it was just over one-third of normal. Fertility of schizophrenics was slightly reduced both before and after illness, and much of this reduction remains due to their being in hospital. The probability of marriage and fertility of women suffering from severe affective disorders was very similar to that found in the corresponding general population. Despite a lessening of differentials between patients and normal women since the impact of community care the probability of marriage of schizophrenics with abnormal personalities is still significantly reduced.     

Avoiding hospital admission through provision of hospital care at home: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data

Background

Avoidance of admission through provision of hospital care at home is a scheme whereby health care professionals provide active treatment in the patient''s home for a condition that would otherwise require inpatient treatment in an acute care hospital. We sought to compare the effectiveness of this method of caring for patients with that type of in-hospital care.

Methods

We searched the MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and EconLit databases and the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care Group register from the earliest date in each database until January 2008. We included randomized controlled trials that evaluated a service providing an alternative to admission to an acute care hospital. We excluded trials in which the program did not offer a substitute for inpatient care. We performed meta-analyses for trials for which the study populations had similar characteristics and for which common outcomes had been measured.

Results

We included 10 randomized trials (with a total of 1327 patients) in our systematic review. Seven of these trials (with a total of 969 patients) were deemed eligible for meta-analysis of individual patient data, but we were able to obtain data for only 5 of these trials (with a total of 844 patients [87%]). There was no significant difference in mortality at 3 months for patients who received hospital care at home (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.77, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54–1.09, p = 0.15). However, at 6 months, mortality was significantly lower for these patients (adjusted HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.45–0.87, p = 0.005). Admissions to hospital were greater, but not significantly so, for patients receiving hospital care at home (adjusted HR 1.49, 95% CI 0.96–2.33, p = 0.08). Patients receiving hospital care at home reported greater satisfaction than those receiving inpatient care. These programs were less expensive than admission to an acute care hospital ward when the analysis was restricted to treatment actually received and when the costs of informal care were excluded.

Interpretation

For selected patients, avoiding admission through provision of hospital care at home yielded similar outcomes to inpatient care, at a similar or lower cost.In many countries, programs in which hospital care is provided in the patient''s own home continue to be a popular response to the increasing demand for acute care hospital beds. Patients who received care through such programs, after assessment in the community by their primary care physician or in the emergency department, may avoid admission to an acute care ward. Alternatively, patients may be discharged early from hospital to receive hospital care at home. We have conducted a parallel systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data related to hospital care at home for patients who have received early discharge, which we will report separately. Recently, the emphasis has been on avoiding admission to hospital, which reflects the relatively limited gain from discharging patients early after a stay in hospital, given the universal trend for shorter lengths of stay in hospital.The types of patients receiving hospital care at home differ among schemes, as does the use of technology. Some schemes are designed to care for patients with specific conditions, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or to provide specific skills, such as parenteral nutrition. However, many schemes for the provision of hospital care at home lack such clear functions and have an “open door” policy covering a wide range of conditions. These schemes may build on existing community resources, or they may operate as hospital outreach services, with hospital staff making home visits. In particular, “hospital-at-home” programs are defined by the provision, in patients'' own homes and for a limited period, of a specific service that requires active participation by health care professionals. The care tends to be multidisciplinary and may include technical services, such as intravenous services.Cutting costs by avoiding admission to hospital altogether is the central goal of such schemes. Other perceived benefits include reducing the risk of adverse events associated with time in hospital¹ and the potential benefit of receiving rehabilitation in the home environment. However, it is not known if patients covered by a policy of avoiding admission through the provision of hospital care at home have health outcomes better than or equivalent to those of patients who receive inpatient hospital care. Furthermore, it is not known if the provision of hospital care at home results in a reduction or an increase in costs to the health service. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis, using individual patient data and published data, to determine the effectiveness and cost of managing care of patients through the provision of hospital care at home relative to inpatient hospital care. The meta-analysis of individual patient data allowed us to investigate whether the strategies were associated with key events happening after different periods of time, rather than simply whether or not those events occurred.     

First year of an inner city general practitioner community hospital.

The first inner city general practitioner community hospital opened on 4 January 1982. This paper describes the operation of the hospital over the first 12 months. There were 316 admissions, with an average length of stay of 13 days. The average age of the patients was 73 and the most common reason for admission was disease of the respiratory system. Thirty five per cent of patients were admitted because of an acute illness and 37% were admitted on the same day as the request for admission. The policies of intermittent or phased care allowed for the admission of patients at regular intervals to relieve carers, and the assessment of the home circumstances of all patients allowed for planning the patient''s return home.     

Edinburgh Emergency Asthma Admission Service: report on 10 years' experience.

In December 1968 an emergency service was begun in Edinburgh to expedite admission to hospital of patients with severe acute asthma. During the first 10 years requests were made to admit 112 patients to a respiratory unit with provision for intensive care on 360 occasions. Four of the patients died of their disease, one in hospital and three before admission. It was thought that the death rate would have been much higher had conventional admission procedures been observed. Owing to ethical objections to a controlled trial it was not possible to obtain substantive proof that the service reduced deaths from asthma. Nevertheless, there was strong circumstantial evidence that organised facilities for the immediate admission to hospital of patients with a history of life-threatening attacks would result in fewer deaths at home. Earlier admission also apparently reduced hospital mortality and the number of patients requiring tracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation. It is concluded that there is a prima facie case for an emergency asthma admission serivce similar to that operating in Edinburgh to be established in all cities and large towns.     

The need for acute,subacute, and nonacute care at 105 general hospital sites on Ontario

BACKGROUND: Previous studies of hospital utilization have not taken into account the use of acute care beds for subacute care. The authors determined the proportion of patients who required acute, subacute and nonacute care on admission and during their hospital stay in general hospitals in Ontario. From this analysis, they identified areas where the efficiency of care delivery might be improved. METHODS: Ninety-eight of 189 acute care hospitals in Ontario, at 105 sites, participated in a review that used explicit criteria for rating acuity developed by Inter-Qual Inc., Marlborough, Mass. The records of 13,242 patients who were discharged over a 9-month period in 1995 after hospital care for 1 of 8 high-volume, high-variability diagnoses or procedures were randomly selected for review. Patients were categorized on the basis of the level of care (acute, subacute or nonacute) they required on admission and during subsequent days of hospital care. RESULTS: Of all admissions, 62.2% were acute, 19.7% subacute and 18.1% nonacute. The patients most likely to require acute care on admission were those with acute myocardial infarction (96.2% of 1826 patients) or cerebrovascular accident (84.0% of 1596 patients) and those admitted for elective surgery on the day of their procedure (73.4% of 3993 patients). However, 41.1% of patients awaiting hip or knee replacement were admitted the day before surgery so did not require acute care on admission. The proportion of patients who required acute care on admission and during the subsequent hospital stay declined with age; the proportion of patients needing nonacute care did not vary with age. After admission, acute care was needed on 27.5% of subsequent days, subacute care on 40.2% and nonacute care on 32.3%. The need for acute care on admission was a predictor of need for acute care during subsequent hospital stay among patients with medical conditions. The proportion of patients requiring subacute care during the subsequent hospital stay increased with age, decreased with the number of inpatient beds in each hospital and was highest among patients with congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and pneumonia. INTERPRETATION: In 1995, inpatients requiring subacute care accounted for a substantial proportion of nonacute care days in Ontario''s general hospitals. These findings suggest a need to evaluate the efficiencies that might be achieved by introducing a subacute category of care into the Canadian health care system. Generally, efforts are needed to reduce the proportion of admissions for nonacute care and of in-hospital days for other than acute care.     

Census of mental hospital patients and life expectancy of those unlikely to be discharged.

A census in a London mental hospital was performed so that the numbers of patients requiring permanent care for the next 20 to 40 years could be estimated. Of 1467 resident patients 20% had been admitted in the preceding five months and 15% in the year before that. Of the 65% who had been in hospital for over 17 months 1% (16 patients) had been in hospital for over 5o years. Altogether 257 (18%) patients would probably be discharged, 339 (23%) might possibly be discharged if there were adequate community facilities, but 871 (59%) were not likely to be discharged; 239 patients under the age of 65 who had been admitted between 1950 and 1973 were unlikely to be discharged. There were about 10 new younger long-stay patients from each year''s admissions. Three conditions--schizophrenia, organic brain syndrome, and affective illness--affected 79% of the population. Fourteen per cent had been employed on admission and 28% were considered employable or possibly employable. Half of those who might be considered for discharge (296) would need a hostel. No rehabilitation was needed or possible for 40% of the patients; 299 (20%) patients were chairbound or bedridden and 400 (27%) were totally dependent on nursing and 587 (40%) partly dependent. Twenty months after the census 361 (25%) patients had left (59 had been readmitted), 284 (19%) had died, and 822 (56%) had remained as inpatients. The most realistic future prediction was that 210 (14%) of these patients would still be in the hospital in 20 years and 43 (3%) in 40 years. In the light of these findings and the scarceness of resources current Department of Health and Social Security plans for phasing out mental hospitals must be challenged.     

Comparison of community based service with hospital based service for people with acute,severe psychiatric illness.

OBJECTIVE--To compare the burden on relatives and outcome of people treated for severe acute psychiatric illness by a community service and a traditional hospital based service. DESIGN--Follow up of patients aged 16-65 who required admission to hospital or home treatment for psychiatric illness during January 1990 to February 1991. SETTING--Two Birmingham electoral wards, Sparkbrook and Small Heath; Sparkbrook has a community based service and Small Heath a traditional hospital based service. SUBJECTS--69 patients from Sparkbrook and 55 from Small Health. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Scores on present state examination, social behaviour assessment schedule, and general health questionnaire. RESULTS--24 (35%) of Sparkbrook patients received some treatment in hospital during the initial episodes. Relatives of Sparkbrook patients were less distressed by their burden at the initial assessment than relatives of Small Health patients (mean score 0.11 v 0.29, p < 0.01). Relatives were also more satisfied with the support they received and the treatment received by patients. More patients from Sparkbrook than Small Health were in contact with a psychiatrist (81% (95% confidence interval 71% to 91%) v 62% (44% to 68%)) and community nurse (56% (44% to 68%) v 14% (13% to 24%)) one year after the initial episode. Sparkbrook patients spent significantly fewer days in hospital during the initial episode (8 days v 59 days) and the first year (20.6 v 67.9 days). CONCLUSION--The community based service is as effective as the hospital based service and is preferred by relatives. It is more effective in keeping people in long term contact with psychiatrists.     

Sex differences in case fatality before and after admission to hospital after acute cardiac events: analysis of community based coronary heart disease register.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the reported higher case fatality in hospital after an acute cardiac event in women can be explained by sex differences in mortality before admission and in baseline risk factors. DESIGN: Analyses of data from a community based coronary heart disease register. SETTING: Auckland region, New Zealand. SUBJECTS: 5106 patients aged 25-64 years with an acute cardiac event leading to coronary death or definite myocardial infarction within 28 days of onset, occurring between 1986 and 1992. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Case fatality before admission, 28 day case fatality for patients in hospital, and total case fatality after an acute cardiac event. RESULTS: Despite a more unfavourable risk profile women tended to have lower case fatality before admission than men (crude odds ratio 0.88; 95% confidence interval 0.77 to 1.02). Adjustment for age, living arrangements, smoking, medical history, and treatment increased the effect of sex (0.72; 0.60 to 0.86). After admission to hospital, women had a higher case fatality than men (1.76; 1.43 to 2.17), but after adjustment for confounders this was reduced to 1.18 (0.89 to 1.58). Total case fatality 28 days after an acute cardiac event showed no significant difference between men and women (0.85; 0.70 to 1.02) CONCLUSIONS: The higher case fatality after an acute cardiac event in women admitted to hospital is largely explained by differences in living status, history, and medical treatment and is balanced by a lower case fatality before admission.     

Bronchopulmonary infection due to Branhamella catarrhalis.

Over six months Branhamella catarrhalis was isolated in pure culture from the sputum of 81 patients with symptoms of acute respiratory tract infection. Of 38 patients who were infected in the community, over half required admission to hospital. The remaining 43 patients acquired the infection in hospital. Forty one of the 81 isolates produced beta-lactamase, 24 of these being hospital acquired infections. As a result 40% of patients who were treated with ampicillin did not respond. Most patients had chronic lung diseases or lung cancer or were taking corticosteroids. Three patients died and one required assisted ventilation; strains producing beta-lactamase were isolated in each case. Acute bronchitis developed in one previously healthy young non-smoker. It is concluded that B catarrhalis is an important pathogen of the lower respiratory tract which should be reported, and strains producing beta-lactamase should be identified. Otherwise, treatment with inappropriate antibiotics may result in increased morbidity or mortality.     

Evolution of an active psychogeriatric day hospital.

A geriatric day hospital was established as part of the psychogeriatric unit of the Royal Ottawa Hospital. While initially this day hospital was integrated with day hospital programs of other units, it became apparent that a separate facility was desirable. The activities and programs of the psychogeriatric day hospital, run by one registered nurse, were integrated with those of the geriatric inpatient unit. It was found to be advantageous for inpatients and day hospital patients to share the same physical facilities. The majority of day hospital patients came from the inpatient unit; almost all had affective disorders. The emphasis was on reintegration into the community. During the 1st year of operation there were 75 patients in the program; only 3 needed admission to the inpatient unit and 1 was readmitted after discharge.     

Integrated hospital and community psychiatric services and use of inpatient beds.

The impact of introducing a divisional psychiatric service based in the community in Nottingham in 1981 on adult psychiatric admissions (patients aged 15-65) was examined with data from the Nottingham case register. During 1980-5 the number of psychiatric admissions fell significantly (4.5% a year) compared with the national figures (0.46% a year). Admissions were reduced most for the diagnoses of affective psychosis and neurotic and personality disorders. The average duration of admission fell by 3.6% a year, and use of inpatient beds fell by 37.5%. Integrating hospital and community psychiatric services by creating sectors is a viable and economically feasible way of improving psychiatric services.     

Mortality in elderly patients admitted for respite care.

OBJECTIVE--To determine whether admitting elderly patients to hospital to give temporary relief to their carers is associated with increased mortality. DESIGN--Prospective multicentre study comparing the mortality of patients admitted on a one off or rotational basis with that experienced while they were awaiting admission. SETTING--A wide range of urban and rural district general, geriatric or long stay, and general practitioner hospitals. PATIENTS--474 Patients aged 70 or over who had 601 admissions. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Death. RESULTS--16 (3.4%) Of the 474 patients (2.7% of all 601 admissions) died while in hospital during an average stay of 15.7 days whereas 23 (4.9%) patients died while awaiting admission (average waiting time was 34.2 days). The 16 deaths in hospital and the 23 deaths during the longer waiting period correspond to death rates of 19.9 and 12.5 per 10,000 person days respectively. The difference between these of 7.4 is not statistically significant (95% confidence interval -3.6 to 18.3). The estimated relative risk of dying in hospital is 1.59 but the 95% confidence interval is wide (0.84 to 3.01). CONCLUSION--Although the death rates are slightly higher in those admitted to hospital for relief care than in those awaiting admission, the difference was not significant, and the death rate in both groups was reassuringly small.     

Recurrent psychiatric hospitalization.

Undue emphasis has been placed on rising rates of readmission to psychiatric facilities. After a decade of preoccupation with discharge rates, readmission statistics have been singled out in the last 15 years as the key factor for assessing hospital effectiveness. A study of a group of patients at high risk for recurrent hospitalization revealed that these patients were characterized more by features relating to environmental supports than by diagnosis. The operational definition for recurrent hospitalization (five or more admissions during the 2-year period preceding the latest admission) was effective in identifying this group; this is the first reported instance in which the definition has specified a certain number of admissions within a time-limited period. The findings of this study, as well as of an analysis of case histories and consumer opinion, led to the design of a pilot program for persons undergoing recurrent hospitalization. Readmission statistics are useless or misleading as measures of hospital effectiveness and efficiency; what matters is the way the former patients function in the community after discharge. Rather than simply trying to reduce the readmission rate psychiatric facilities should be examining the types of persons who are hospitalized recurrently to develop programs aimed at improving the functioning of these people in the community.     

Factors affecting early unplanned readmission of elderly patients to hospital.

A random sample of 133 elderly patients who had an unplanned readmission to a district general hospital within 28 days of discharge from hospital was studied and compared with a matched control sample of patients who were not readmitted. The total group was drawn from all specialties in the hospital, and by interviewing the patients, their carers, the ward sisters, and the patients'' general practitioners the factors causing early unplanned readmission for each patient were identified. Seven possible principal reasons were found: relapse of original condition, development of a new problem, carer problems, complications of the initial illness, need for terminal care, problems with medication, and problems with services. There were also contributory reasons, and it was usual for several of these to be present in each case. The unplanned readmission rate was 6%; the planned readmission rate was 3%. It was thought that unplanned readmission was avoidable for 78 (59%) patients. Patients in the study group and in the control group showed significant differences in certain characteristics--such as low income, previous hospital admission, already having nursing care, and admission by general practitioners--and this might help to identify patients who are likely to be readmitted in an emergency.     

Trends in the hospital care of acute childhood asthma 1970-8: a regional study.

In the South-west Thames Region over the period 1970-8 the number of admissions for asthma in children aged 5-14 years increased from 256 to 684, an increase of 167%. Factors associated with this trend were investigated by an analysis of routine hospital statistics and examination of case notes for 1970 and 1978 from every hospital in the region. The trend was caused partly by an increase in readmission rates. There was a more than fivefold increase in self-referrals; these patients had less severe asthma on admission and a higher readmission rate than patients referred by general practitioners. Drug management before and after admission changed considerably over the nine years, as did hospital investigations. Overall, there was little change in the level of severity on admission. The increase in admissions was not associated with a reduction in deaths from asthma in the region and occurred in spite of major advances in the drug control of asthma; this indicates an inadequacy of ambulatory care. The shift in the balance of care towards the hospital and the increasing adoption of a primary care function by the hospital indicate a need for hospitals and general practice to agree jointly on management policies for acute asthma.     

Are diagnostic tests repeated unnecessarily on hospital admission?

After admission to hospital, patients are often subjected to laboratory tests that may duplicate testing already done. For nearly 2800 patients at three hospitals the numbers and types of tests done in the week before and the week after admission were determined. A team of general practitioners judged the necessity of tests that had been repeated, with only those tests that had yielded normal results at both times being labelled as unjustifiably duplicated. Only 246 patients had had tests done in the week before entering the hospital, but 192 (71%) of them had had tests repeated after admission, 35 (14%) unjustifiably. Of the 743 laboratory tests performed before admission 447 (60%) were subsequently duplicated, but only 85 (11%) of them unjustifiably. Duplication, whether justifiable or unnecessary, was more likely to involve the hemoglobin determinations and urinalyses done routinely in hospitals.     

The Brighton resuscitation ambulances: a continuing experiment in prehospital care by ambulance staff.

Two ambulances from the existing fleet in Brighton and one in Hove are equipped with portable defibrillator-oscilloscope units. Selected attendants have been trained not only to defibrillate patients but also to perform endotracheal intubation and administer intravenous atropine and lignocaine for carefully defined indications. In the two years up to December 1975 the ambulances responded to 2253 calls which were considered possible emergencies. Retrospective analysis showed that half of these had been for patients with myocardial infarction, coronary insufficiency, or angina. The ambulances took a median time of five minutes to reach a patient. Attempts at resuscitation were made in 207 patients with circulatory arrest, of whom 160 had ventricular fibrillation. Coordinated rhythm was restored at least transiently in 66 patients, and 27 of them survived to leave hospital. Sixteen of the survivors had been in ventricular fibrillation before the arrival of the ambulance. The delay before admission to hospital was reduced: over 50% of patients carried in the ambulances were admitted within two hours of the onset of major symptoms. No extra ambulance staff have been employed for the scheme. The increased load on hospital services has been limited by encouraging a rational admission policy and also by early discharge.     

Clinical characteristics associated with adverse events in patients with exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a prospective cohort study

Background:

To assist physicians with difficult decisions about hospital admission for patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) presenting in the emergency department, we sought to identify clinical characteristics associated with serious adverse events.

Methods:

We conducted this prospective cohort study in 6 large Canadian academic emergency departments. Patients were assessed for standardized clinical variables and then followed for serious adverse events, defined as death, intubation, admission to a monitored unit or new visit to the emergency department requiring admission.

Results:

We enrolled 945 patients, of whom 354 (37.5%) were admitted to hospital. Of 74 (7.8%) patients with a subsequent serious adverse event, 36 (49%) had not been admitted after the initial emergency visit. Multivariable modelling identified 5 variables that were independently associated with adverse events: prior intubation, initial heart rate ≥ 110/minute, being too ill to do a walk test, hemoglobin < 100 g/L and urea ≥ 12 mmol/L. A preliminary risk scale incorporating these and 5 other clinical variables produced risk categories ranging from 2.2% for a score of 0 to 91.4% for a score of 10. Using a risk score of 2 or higher as a threshold for admission would capture all patients with a predicted risk of adverse events of 7.2% or higher, while only slightly increasing admission rates, from 37.5% to 43.2%.

Interpretation:

In Canada, many patients with COPD suffer a serious adverse event or death after being discharged home from the emergency department. We identified high-risk characteristics and developed a preliminary risk scale that, once validated, could be used to stratify the likelihood of poor outcomes and to enable rational and safe admission decisions.Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a respiratory disorder caused largely by smoking and characterized by progressive, incompletely reversible airflow obstruction, is a leading cause of hospital admission among older people. Patients who experience frequent exacerbations of COPD are at higher risk of death.¹ Return to the emergency department within 30 days because of worsening respiratory symptoms was reported for 35% of COPD patients discharged from Canadian academic emergency departments.²An important challenge facing physicians when treating patients with COPD exacerbation is deciding who should be admitted. Many of these patients will have a response to therapy in the emergency department and will not benefit from admission to hospital. A small but important number of patients have serious adverse events after hospital admission, such as death, mechanical ventilation or myocardial infarction. Others are discharged after prolonged management in the emergency department, only to experience a serious adverse event or return later to be admitted. These outcomes are important because many jurisdictions have a shortage of hospital beds and many emergency departments are overcrowded. There is, however, little evidence about risk factors for adverse events in patients with COPD to aid with disposition decisions in the emergency department, and existing guidelines are consensus based and have not been validated.^3–5The overall goal of this study was to evaluate patients with acute exacerbation of COPD seen in the emergency department to determine the clinical characteristics associated with short-term serious adverse events. Once validated, this information should help in efforts to improve and standardize admission practices for patients with COPD seeen in the emergency department, diminishing both unnecessary admissions and unsafe discharge decisions.