Geese and their future fortune

Wild goose populations were probably limited by winter food supplies before Man modified their winter range and effectively removed that limitation on population growth. At the same time, reduction of hunting lowered Man-induced mortality and allowed most populations to increase both in Europe and in North America.
This paper considers likely future trends, and, using the population of Barnacle Geese breeding in Svalbard as an example, suggests how numbers might be regulated in a density related manner. The Svalbard Barnacle Goose population has shown a decline in recruitment rate and an increase in the natural mortality rate as numbers have increased. Both of these are reflections of competition on the breeding grounds, though there may be some effects at other times. We suggest that most populations will eventually be limited by resources on the breeding area.
Some of the implications of changes in numbers are that pair-bond stability and breeding area philopatry are less advantageous and in time will become less pronounced as the selective value of these traits are diminished.
We argue that both for applied reasons (conservation, crop damage prediction) and for academic investigations of population processes, long-term studies are vital in the management and understanding of goose populations. A number of features of their life history make geese very suitable subjects for such studies.