Development of an Electronic Medical Record Based Alert for Risk of HIV Treatment Failure in a Low-Resource Setting

Background

The adoption of electronic medical record systems in resource-limited settings can help clinicians monitor patients'' adherence to HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) and identify patients at risk of future ART failure, allowing resources to be targeted to those most at risk.

Methods

Among adult patients enrolled on ART from 2005–2013 at two large, public-sector hospitals in Haiti, ART failure was assessed after 6–12 months on treatment, based on the World Health Organization''s immunologic and clinical criteria. We identified models for predicting ART failure based on ART adherence measures and other patient characteristics. We assessed performance of candidate models using area under the receiver operating curve, and validated results using a randomly-split data sample. The selected prediction model was used to generate a risk score, and its ability to differentiate ART failure risk over a 42-month follow-up period was tested using stratified Kaplan Meier survival curves.

Results

Among 923 patients with CD4 results available during the period 6–12 months after ART initiation, 196 (21.2%) met ART failure criteria. The pharmacy-based proportion of days covered (PDC) measure performed best among five possible ART adherence measures at predicting ART failure. Average PDC during the first 6 months on ART was 79.0% among cases of ART failure and 88.6% among cases of non-failure (p<0.01). When additional information including sex, baseline CD4, and duration of enrollment in HIV care prior to ART initiation were added to PDC, the risk score differentiated between those who did and did not meet failure criteria over 42 months following ART initiation.

Conclusions

Pharmacy data are most useful for new ART adherence alerts within iSanté. Such alerts offer potential to help clinicians identify patients at high risk of ART failure so that they can be targeted with adherence support interventions, before ART failure occurs.     

Characteristics and Outcomes among Older HIV-Positive Adults Enrolled in HIV Programs in Four Sub-Saharan African Countries

Background

Limited information exists on adults ≥50 years receiving HIV care in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methodology

Using routinely-collected longitudinal patient-level data among 391,111 adults ≥15 years enrolling in HIV care from January 2005–December 2010 and 184,689 initiating ART, we compared characteristics and outcomes between older (≥50 years) and younger adults at 199 clinics in Kenya, Mozambique, Rwanda, and Tanzania. We calculated proportions over time of newly enrolled and active adults receiving HIV care and initiating ART who were ≥50 years; cumulative incidence of loss to follow-up (LTF) and recorded death one year after enrollment and ART initiation, and CD4+ response following ART initiation.

Findings

From 2005–2010, the percentage of adults ≥50 years newly enrolled in HIV care remained stable at 10%, while the percentage of adults ≥50 years newly initiating ART (10% [2005]-12% [2010]), active in follow-up (10% [2005]-14% (2010]), and active on ART (10% [2005]-16% [2010]) significantly increased. One year after enrollment, older patients had significantly lower incidence of LTF (33.1% vs. 32.6%[40–49 years], 40.5%[25–39 years], and 56.3%[15–24 years]; p-value<0.0001), but significantly higher incidence of recorded death (6.0% vs. 5.0% [40–49 years], 4.1% [25–39 years], and 2.8% [15–24 years]; p-valve<0.0001). LTF was lower after vs. before ART initiation for all ages, with older adults experiencing less LTF than younger adults. Among 85,763 ART patients with baseline and follow-up CD4+ counts, adjusted average 12-month CD4+ response for older adults was 20.6 cells/mm³ lower than for adults 25–39 years of age (95% CI: 17.1–24.1).

Conclusions

The proportion of patients who are ≥50 years has increased over time and been driven by aging of the existing patient population. Older patients experienced less LTF, higher recorded mortality and less robust CD4+ response after ART initiation. Increased programmatic attention on older adults receiving HIV care in sub-Saharan Africa is warranted.     

Availability of Volunteer-Led Home-Based Care System and Baseline Factors as Predictors of Clinical Outcomes in HIV-Infected Patients in Rural Zambia

Background

We assessed the impact of home-based care (HBC) for HIV+ patients, comparing outcomes between two groups of Zambians receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) who lived in villages with and without HBC teams.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using medical charts from Macha Mission Hospital, a hospital providing HIV care in Zambia''s rural Southern Province. Date of birth, date of ART initiation, place of residence, sex, body mass index (BMI), CD4+ cell count, and hemoglobin (Hgb) were abstracted. Logistic regression was used to test our hypothesis that HBC was associated with treatment outcomes.

Results

Of 655 patients, 523 (80%) were eligible and included in the study. There were 428 patients (82%) with favorable outcomes (alive and on ART) and 95 patients (18%) with unfavorable outcomes (died, lost to follow-up, or stopped treatment). A minority of the 523 eligible patients (n = 84, 16%) lived in villages with HBC available. Living in a village with HBC was not significantly associated with treatment outcomes; 80% of patients in a village with HBC had favorable outcomes, compared to 82% of patients in a village without HBC (P = 0.6 by χ²). In bivariable analysis, lower BMI (P<0.001), low CD4+ cell count (P = 0.02), low Hgb concentration (P = 0.02), and older age at ART initiation (P = 0.047) were associated with unfavorable outcomes. In multivariable analysis, low BMI remained associated with unfavorable outcomes (P<0.001).

Conclusions

We did not find that living in a village with HBC available was associated with improved treatment outcomes. We speculate that the ART clinic''s rigorous treatment preparation before ART initiation and continuous adherence counseling during ART create a motivated group of patients whose outcomes did not improve with additional HBC support. An alternative explanation is that the quality of the HBC program is suboptimal.     

Retention in Care and Outpatient Costs for Children Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy in Zambia: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis

Background

There are few published estimates of the cost of pediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa. Our objective was to estimate the outpatient cost of providing ART to children remaining in care at six public sector clinics in Zambia during the first three years after ART initiation, stratified by service delivery site and time on treatment.

Methods

Data on resource utilization (drugs, diagnostics, outpatient visits, fixed costs) and treatment outcomes (in care, died, lost to follow up) were extracted from medical records for 1,334 children at six sites who initiated ART at <15 years of age between 2006 and 2011. Fixed and variable unit costs (reported in 2011 USD) were estimated from the provider’s perspective using site level data.

Results

Median age at ART initiation was 4.0 years; median CD4 percentage was 14%. One year after ART initiation, 73% of patients remained in care, ranging from 60% to 91% depending on site. The average annual outpatient cost per patient remaining in care was $209 (95% CI, $199–$219), ranging from $116 (95% CI, $107–$126) to $516 (95% CI, $499–$533) depending on site. Average annual costs decreased as time on treatment increased. Antiretroviral drugs were the largest component of all outpatient costs (>50%) at four sites. At the two remaining sites, outpatient visits and fixed costs together accounted for >50% of outpatient costs. The distribution of costs is slightly skewed, with median costs 3% to 13% lower than average costs during the first year after ART initiation depending on site.

Conclusions

Outpatient costs for children initiating ART in Zambia are low and comparable to reported outpatient costs for adults. Outpatient costs and retention in care vary widely by site, suggesting opportunities for efficiency gains. Taking advantage of such opportunities will help ensure that targets for pediatric treatment coverage can be met.     

HIV-infected children in rural Zambia achieve good immunologic and virologic outcomes two years after initiating antiretroviral therapy

Background

Many HIV-infected children in sub-Saharan Africa reside in rural areas, yet most research on treatment outcomes has been conducted in urban centers. Rural clinics and residents may face unique barriers to care and treatment.

Methods

A prospective cohort study of HIV-infected children was conducted between September 2007 and September 2010 at the rural HIV clinic in Macha, Zambia. HIV-infected children younger than 16 years of age at study enrollment who received antiretroviral therapy (ART) during the study were eligible. Treatment outcomes during the first two years of ART, including mortality, immunologic status, and virologic suppression, were assessed and risk factors for mortality and virologic suppression were evaluated.

Results

A total of 69 children entered the study receiving ART and 198 initiated ART after study enrollment. The cumulative probabilities of death among children starting ART after study enrollment were 9.0% and 14.4% at 6 and 24 months after ART initiation. Younger age, higher viral load, lower CD4+ T-cell percentage and lower weight-for-age z-scores at ART initiation were associated with higher risk of mortality. The mean CD4⁺ T-cell percentage increased from 16.3% at treatment initiation to 29.3% and 35.0% at 6 and 24 months. The proportion of children with undetectable viral load increased to 88.5% and 77.8% at 6 and 24 months. Children with longer travel times (≥5 hours) and those taking nevirapine at ART initiation, as well as children who were non-adherent, were less likely to achieve virologic suppression after 6 months of ART.

Conclusions

HIV-infected children receiving treatment in a rural clinic experienced sustained immunologic and virologic improvements. Children with longer travel times were less likely to achieve virologic suppression, supporting the need for decentralized models of ART delivery.     

Patient Retention,Clinical Outcomes and Attrition-Associated Factors of HIV-Infected Patients Enrolled in Zimbabwe's National Antiretroviral Therapy Programme, 2007–2010

Background

Since establishment of Zimbabwe''s National Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) Programme in 2004, ART provision has expanded from <5,000 to 369,431 adults by 2011. However, patient outcomes are unexplored.

Objective

To determine improvement in health status, retention and factors associated with attrition among HIV-infected patients on ART.

Methods

A retrospective review of abstracted patient records of adults ≥15 years who initiated ART from 2007 to 2009 was done. Frequencies and medians were calculated for rates of retention in care and changes in key health status outcomes at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months respectively. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine factors associated with attrition.

Results

Of the 3,919 patients, 64% were female, 86% were either WHO clinical stage III or IV. Rates of patient retention at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months were 90.7%, 78.1%, 68.8% and 64.4%, respectively. After ART initiation, median weight gains at 6, 12, and 24 months were 3, 4.5, and 5.0 kgs whilst median CD4+ cell count gains at 6, 12 and 24 months were 122, 157 and 279 cells/µL respectively. Factors associated with an increased risk of attrition included male gender (AHR 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1–1.4), baseline WHO stage IV (AHR 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1–2.6), lower baseline body weight (AHR 2.0; 95% CI, 1.4–2. 8) and accessing care from higher level healthcare facilities (AHR 3.5; 95% 1.1–11.2).

Conclusions

Our findings with regard to retention as well as clinical and immunological improvements following uptake of ART, are similar to what has been found in other settings. Factors influencing attrition also mirror those found in other parts of sub-Saharan Africa. These findings suggest the need to strengthen earlier diagnosis and treatment to further improve treatment outcomes. Whilst decentralisation improves ART coverage it should be coupled with strategies aimed at improving patient retention.     

Temporal Trends in the Characteristics of Children at Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation in Southern Africa: The IeDEA-SA Collaboration

Background

Since 2005, increasing numbers of children have started antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa and, in recent years, WHO and country treatment guidelines have recommended ART initiation for all infants and very young children, and at higher CD4 thresholds for older children. We examined temporal changes in patient and regimen characteristics at ART start using data from 12 cohorts in 4 countries participating in the IeDEA-SA collaboration.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Data from 30,300 ART-naïve children aged <16 years at ART initiation who started therapy between 2005 and 2010 were analysed. We examined changes in median values for continuous variables using the Cuzick''s test for trend over time. We also examined changes in the proportions of patients with particular disease severity characteristics (expressed as a binary variable e.g. WHO Stage III/IV vs I/II) using logistic regression. Between 2005 and 2010 the number of children starting ART each year increased and median age declined from 63 months (2006) to 56 months (2010). Both the proportion of children <1 year and ≥10 years of age increased from 12 to 19% and 18 to 22% respectively. Children had less severe disease at ART initiation in later years with significant declines in the percentage with severe immunosuppression (81 to 63%), WHO Stage III/IV disease (75 to 62%), severe anemia (12 to 7%) and weight-for-age z-score<−3 (31 to 28%). Similar results were seen when restricting to infants with significant declines in the proportion with severe immunodeficiency (98 to 82%) and Stage III/IV disease (81 to 63%). First-line regimen use followed country guidelines.

Conclusions/Significance

Between 2005 and 2010 increasing numbers of children have initiated ART with a decline in disease severity at start of therapy. However, even in 2010, a substantial number of infants and children started ART with advanced disease. These results highlight the importance of efforts to improve access to HIV diagnostic testing and ART in children.     

Early mortality and AIDS progression despite high initial antiretroviral therapy adherence and virologic suppression in Botswana

Background

Adverse outcomes occurring early after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation are common in sub-Saharan Africa, despite reports of high levels of ART adherence in this setting. We sought to determine the relationship between very early ART adherence and early adverse outcomes in HIV-infected adults in Botswana.

Methods

This prospective cohort study of 402 ART-naïve, HIV-infected adults initiating ART at a public HIV clinic in Gaborone, Botswana evaluated the relationship between suboptimal early ART adherence and HIV treatment outcomes in the initial months after ART initiation. Early adherence during the interval between initial ART dispensation and first ART refill was calculated using pill counts. In the primary analysis patients not returning to refill and those with adherence <0.95 were considered to have suboptimal early adherence. The primary outcome was death or loss to follow-up during the first 6 months of ART; a secondary composite outcome included the primary outcome plus incident opportunistic illness (OIs) and virologic failure. We also calculated the percent of early adverse outcomes theoretically attributable to suboptimal early adherence using the population attributable risk percent (PAR%).

Results

Suboptimal early adherence was independently associated with loss to follow-up and death (adjusted OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.1–4.8) and with the secondary composite outcome including incident OIs and virologic failure (adjusted OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.4–4.7). However, of those with early adverse outcomes, less than one-third had suboptimal adherence and approximately two-thirds achieved virologic suppression. The PAR% relating suboptimal early adherence and primary and secondary outcomes were 14.7% and 17.7%, respectively.

Conclusions

Suboptimal early adherence was associated with poor outcomes, but most early adverse outcomes occurred in patients with optimal early adherence. Clinical care and research efforts should focus on understanding early adverse outcomes that occur despite optimal adherence.     

A Novel Approach to Accounting for Loss to Follow-Up when Estimating the Relationship between CD4 Count at ART Initiation and Mortality

Background

While CD4 strongly predicts mortality on antiretroviral therapy (ART), estimates from programmatic data suffer from incomplete patient outcomes.

Methods

We conducted a pooled analysis of one-year mortality data on ART accounting for lost patients. We identified articles reporting one-year mortality by ART initiation CD4 count. We estimated the average mortality among those lost as the value that maximizes the fit of a regression of the natural log of mortality on the natural log of the imputed mean CD4 count in each band.

Results

We found 20 studies representing 64,426 subjects and 51 CD4 observations. Without correcting for losses, one-year mortality was >4.8% for all CD4 counts <200 cells/mm³. When searching over different values for mortality among those lost, the best fitting model occurs at 60% mortality. In this model, those with a CD4≤200 had a one-year mortality above 8.7, while those with a CD4>500 had a one-year mortality <6.8%. Comparing those starting ART at 500 vs. 50, one-year mortality risk was reduced by 54% (6.8 vs. 12.5%). Regardless of CD4 count, mortality was substantially higher than when assuming no mortality among those lost, ranging from a 23–94% increase.

Conclusions

Our best fitting regression estimates that every 10% increase in CD4 count at initiation is associated with a 2.8% decline in one-year mortality, including those lost. Our study supports the health benefits of higher thresholds for CD4 count initiation and suggests that reports of programmatic ART outcomes can and should adjust results for mortality among those lost.     

Retention in HIV care between testing and treatment in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review

Background

Improving the outcomes of HIV/AIDS treatment programs in resource-limited settings requires successful linkage of patients testing positive for HIV to pre–antiretroviral therapy (ART) care and retention in pre-ART care until ART initiation. We conducted a systematic review of pre-ART retention in care in Africa.

Methods and Findings

We searched PubMed, ISI Web of Knowledge, conference abstracts, and reference lists for reports on the proportion of adult patients retained between any two points between testing positive for HIV and initiating ART in sub-Saharan African HIV/AIDS care programs. Results were categorized as Stage 1 (from HIV testing to receipt of CD4 count results or clinical staging), Stage 2 (from staging to ART eligibility), or Stage 3 (from ART eligibility to ART initiation). Medians (ranges) were reported for the proportions of patients retained in each stage. We identified 28 eligible studies. The median proportion retained in Stage 1 was 59% (35%–88%); Stage 2, 46% (31%–95%); and Stage 3, 68% (14%–84%). Most studies reported on only one stage; none followed a cohort of patients through all three stages. Enrollment criteria, terminology, end points, follow-up, and outcomes varied widely and were often poorly defined, making aggregation of results difficult. Synthesis of findings from multiple studies suggests that fewer than one-third of patients testing positive for HIV and not yet eligible for ART when diagnosed are retained continuously in care, though this estimate should be regarded with caution because of review limitations.

Conclusions

Studies of retention in pre-ART care report substantial loss of patients at every step, starting with patients who do not return for their initial CD4 count results and ending with those who do not initiate ART despite eligibility. Better health information systems that allow patients to be tracked between service delivery points are needed to properly evaluate pre-ART loss to care, and researchers should attempt to standardize the terminology, definitions, and time periods reported. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

HIV status disclosure and retention in care in HIV-infected adolescents on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in West Africa

Objective

We assessed the effect of HIV status disclosure on retention in care from initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) among HIV-infected children aged 10 years or more in Cote d''Ivoire, Mali and Sénégal.

Methods

Multi-centre cohort study within five paediatric clinics participating in the IeDEA West Africa collaboration. HIV-infected patients were included in this study if they met the following inclusion criteria: aged 10–21 years while on ART; having initiated ART≥200 days before the closure date of the clinic database; followed ≥15 days from ART initiation in clinics with ≥10 adolescents enrolled. Routine follow-up data were merged with those collected through a standardized ad hoc questionnaire on awareness of HIV status. Probability of retention (no death or loss-to-follow-up) was estimated with Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazard model with date of ART initiation as origin and a delayed entry at date of 10th birthday was used to identify factors associated with death or loss-to-follow-up.

Results

650 adolescents were available for this analysis. Characteristics at ART initiation were: median age of 10.4 years; median CD4 count of 224 cells/mm³ (47% with severe immunosuppression), 48% CDC stage C/WHO stage 3/4. The median follow-up on ART after the age of 10 was 23.3 months; 187 adolescents (28.8%) knew their HIV status. The overall probability of retention at 36 months after ART initiation was 74.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 70.5–79.0) and was higher for those disclosed compared to those not: adjusted hazard ratio for the risk of being death or loss-to-follow-up = 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13–0.39).

Conclusion

About 2/3 of HIV-infected adolescents on ART were not aware of their HIV status in these ART clinics in West Africa but disclosed HIV status improved retention in care. The disclosure process should be thus systematically encouraged and organized in adolescent populations.     

Disinhibition in Risky Sexual Behavior in Men,but Not Women,during Four Years of Antiretroviral Therapy in Rural,Southwestern Uganda

Background

In resource-rich areas, risky sexual behavior (RSB) largely diminishes after initiation of anti-retroviral therapy, with notable exceptions among some populations who perceive a protected benefit from anti-retroviral therapy (ART). Yet, there is limited data about long-term trends in risky sexual behavior among HIV-infected people in sub-Saharan Africa after initiation of anti-retroviral therapy.

Methods

We administered questionnaires every three months to collect sexual behavior data among patients taking ART in southwestern Uganda over four years of follow-up time. We defined RSB as having unprotected sex with an HIV-negative or unknown status partner, or unprotected sex with a casual partner. We fit logistic regression models to estimate changes in RSB by time on ART, with and without adjustment for calendar year and CD4 count.

Results

506 participants were enrolled between 2005 and 2011 and contributed a median of 13 visits and 3.5 years of observation time. The majority were female (70%) and median age was 34 years (interquartile range 29–39). There was a decrease in the proportion of men reporting RSB from the pre-ART visit to the first post-ART visit (16.2 to 4.3%, p<0.01) but not women (14.1 to 13.3%, p = 0.80). With each year of ART, women reported decreasing RSB (OR 0.85 per year, 95%CI 0.74–0.98, p = 0.03). In contrast, men had increasing odds of reporting RSB with each year of ART to near pre-treatment rates (OR 1.41, 95%CI 1.14–1.74, p = 0.001), which was partially confounded by changes in calendar time and CD4 count (AOR = 1.24, 95%CI 0.92–1.67, p = 0.16).

Conclusions

Men in southwestern Uganda reported increasing RSB over four years on ART, to levels approaching pre-treatment rates. Strategies to promote long-term safe sex practices targeted to HIV-infected men on ART might have a significant impact on preventing HIV transmission in this setting.     

Outcomes of Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Treatment with Early Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy for HIV Co-Infected Patients in Lesotho

Background

Although the importance of concurrent treatment for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and HIV co-infection has been increasingly recognized, there have been few studies reporting outcomes of MDR-TB and HIV co-treatment. We report final outcomes of comprehensive, integrated MDR-TB and HIV treatment in Lesotho and examine factors associated with death or treatment failure.

Methods

We reviewed clinical charts of all adult patients who initiated MDR-TB treatment in Lesotho between January 2008 and September 2009. We calculated hazard ratios (HR) and used multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression to identify predictors of poor outcomes.

Results

Of 134 confirmed MDR-TB patients, 83 (62%) were cured or completed treatment, 46 (34%) died, 3 (2%) transferred, 1 (1%) defaulted, and 1 (1%) failed treatment. Treatment outcomes did not differ significantly by HIV status. Among the 94 (70%) patients with HIV co-infection, 53% were already on antiretroviral therapy (ART) before MDR-TB treatment initiation, and 43% started ART a median of 16 days after the start of the MDR-TB regimen. Among HIV co-infected patients who died, those who had not started ART before MDR-TB treatment had a shorter median time to death (80 days vs. 138 days, p = 0.065). In multivariable analysis, predictors of increased hazard of failure or death were low and severely low body mass index (HR 2.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.27–5.93; HR 5.50, 95% CI 2.38–12.69), and a history of working in South Africa (HR 2.37, 95% CI 1.24–4.52).

Conclusions

Favorable outcomes can be achieved in co-infected patients using a community-based treatment model when both MDR-TB and HIV disease are treated concurrently and treatment is initiated promptly.     

Risk factors for pre-treatment mortality among HIV-infected children in rural Zambia: a cohort study

Background

Many HIV-infected children in sub-Saharan Africa enter care at a late stage of disease. As preparation of the child and family for antiretroviral therapy (ART) can take several clinic visits, some children die prior to ART initiation. This study was undertaken to determine mortality rates and clinical predictors of mortality during the period prior to ART initiation.

Methods

A prospective cohort study of HIV-infected treatment-naïve children was conducted between September 2007 and September 2010 at the HIV clinic at Macha Hospital in rural Southern Province, Zambia. HIV-infected children younger than 16 years of age who were treatment-naïve at study enrollment were eligible for analysis. Mortality rates prior to ART initiation were calculated and risk factors for mortality were evaluated.

Results

351 children were included in the study, of whom 210 (59.8%) were eligible for ART at study enrollment. Among children ineligible for ART at enrollment, 6 children died (mortality rate: 0.33; 95% CI:0.15, 0.74). Among children eligible at enrollment, 21 children died before initiation of ART and their mortality rate (2.73 per 100 person-years; 95% CI:1.78, 4.18) was significantly higher than among children ineligible for ART (incidence rate ratio: 8.20; 95% CI:3.20, 24.83). In both groups, mortality was highest in the first three months of follow-up. Factors associated with mortality included younger age, anemia and lower weight-for-age z-score at study enrollment.

Conclusions

These results underscore the need to increase efforts to identify HIV-infected children at an earlier age and stage of disease progression so they can enroll in HIV care and treatment programs prior to becoming eligible for ART and these deaths can be prevented.     

Understanding the Potential Impact of a Combination HIV Prevention Intervention in a Hyper-Endemic Community

Objectives

Despite demonstrating only partial efficacy in preventing new infections, available HIV prevention interventions could offer a powerful strategy when combined. In anticipation of combination HIV prevention programs and research studies we estimated the population-level impact of combining effective scalable interventions at high population coverage, determined the factors that influence this impact, and estimated the synergy between the components.

Methods

We used a mathematical model to investigate the effect on HIV incidence of a combination HIV prevention intervention comprised of high coverage of HIV testing and counselling, risk reduction following HIV diagnosis, male circumcision for HIV-uninfected men, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-infected persons. The model was calibrated to data for KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, where adult HIV prevalence is approximately 23%.

Results

Compared to current levels of HIV testing, circumcision, and ART, the combined intervention with ART initiation according to current guidelines could reduce HIV incidence by 47%, from 2.3 new infections per 100 person-years (pyar) to 1.2 per 100 pyar within 4 years and by almost 60%, to 1 per 100 pyar, after 25 years. Short-term impact is driven primarily by uptake of testing and reductions in risk behaviour following testing while long-term effects are driven by periodic HIV testing and retention in ART programs. If the combination prevention program incorporated HIV treatment upon diagnosis, incidence could be reduced by 63% after 4 years and by 76% (to about 0.5 per 100 pyar) after 15 years. The full impact of the combination interventions accrues over 10–15 years. Synergy is demonstrated between the intervention components.

Conclusion

High coverage combination of evidence-based strategies could generate substantial reductions in population HIV incidence in an African generalized HIV epidemic setting. The full impact could be underestimated by the short assessment duration of typical evaluations.     

Closing the Gap: Increases in Life Expectancy among Treated HIV-Positive Individuals in the United States and Canada

Background

Combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) has significantly increased survival among HIV-positive adults in the United States (U.S.) and Canada, but gains in life expectancy for this region have not been well characterized. We aim to estimate temporal changes in life expectancy among HIV-positive adults on ART from 2000–2007 in the U.S. and Canada.

Methods

Participants were from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD), aged ≥20 years and on ART. Mortality rates were calculated using participants'' person-time from January 1, 2000 or ART initiation until death, loss to follow-up, or administrative censoring December 31, 2007. Life expectancy at age 20, defined as the average number of additional years that a person of a specific age will live, provided the current age-specific mortality rates remain constant, was estimated using abridged life tables.

Results

The crude mortality rate was 19.8/1,000 person-years, among 22,937 individuals contributing 82,022 person-years and 1,622 deaths. Life expectancy increased from 36.1 [standard error (SE) 0.5] to 51.4 [SE 0.5] years from 2000–2002 to 2006–2007. Men and women had comparable life expectancies in all periods except the last (2006–2007). Life expectancy was lower for individuals with a history of injection drug use, non-whites, and in patients with baseline CD4 counts <350 cells/mm³.

Conclusions

A 20-year-old HIV-positive adult on ART in the U.S. or Canada is expected to live into their early 70 s, a life expectancy approaching that of the general population. Differences by sex, race, HIV transmission risk group, and CD4 count remain.     

A Systematic Review of Health System Barriers and Enablers for Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) for HIV-Infected Pregnant and Postpartum Women

Background

Despite global progress in the fight to reduce maternal mortality, HIV-related maternal deaths remain persistently high, particularly in much of Africa. Lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) appears to be the most effective way to prevent these deaths, but the rates of three key outcomes—ART initiation, retention in care, and long-term ART adherence—remain low. This systematic review synthesized evidence on health systems factors affecting these outcomes in pregnant and postpartum women living with HIV.

Methods

Searches were conducted for studies addressing the population of interest (HIV-infected pregnant and postpartum women), the intervention of interest (ART), and the outcomes of interest (initiation, adherence, and retention). Quantitative and qualitative studies published in English since January 2008 were included. A four-stage narrative synthesis design was used to analyze findings. Review findings from 42 included studies were categorized according to five themes: 1) models of care, 2) service delivery, 3) resource constraints and governance challenges, 4) patient-health system engagement, and 5) maternal ART interventions.

Results

Low prioritization of maternal ART and persistent dropout along the maternal ART cascade were key findings. Service delivery barriers included poor communication and coordination among health system actors, poor clinical practices, and gaps in provider training. The few studies that assessed maternal ART interventions demonstrated the importance of multi-pronged, multi-leveled interventions.

Conclusions

There has been a lack of emphasis on the experiences, needs and vulnerabilities particular to HIV-infected pregnant and postpartum women. Supporting these women to successfully traverse the maternal ART cascade requires carefully designed and targeted interventions throughout the steps. Careful design of integrated service delivery models is of critical importance in this effort. Key knowledge gaps and research priorities were also identified, including definitions and indicators of adherence rates, and the importance of cumulative measures of dropout along the maternal ART cascade.     

Effective Coverage for Antiretroviral Therapy in a Ugandan District with a Decentralized Model of Care

Introduction

While increasing access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is reported from many African countries, data on effective coverage particular from settings without external support or research remains scarce. We examined and report effective coverage data from a public ART program in rural Uganda.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study at all ART-providing governmental health facilities in Iganga District, Eastern Uganda. Based on all HIV patients registered between April 2004 and September 2009 (n = 4775), we assessed indicators of program performance and determined rates of retention and Cox proportional hazards for attrition. Effective ART coverage was calculated using projections (SPECTRUM software) adapted to the district demographic structure and number of people receiving ART.

Results

By September 2009, district public sector effective ART coverage was 10.3% for adults and 1.9% for children. After a median follow-up of 26.9 months, overall ART retention was 54.7%. The probability of retention was 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69–0.75) at 12 and 0.58 (CI 0.54–0.62) at 36 months after ART initiation. Individual health facilities differed considerably regarding performance indicators and retention. Overall, 198 (16.9%) individual files of 1171 registered ART patients were lost. Young adult age (15–24 years) had a higher risk of attrition (HR 2.1, CI 1.4–3.2) as well as WHO stage I (HR 4.8, CI 1.9–11.8) and WHO stage IV (HR 2.5, CI 1.3–4.7). An interval ≥6 weeks between HIV testing and ART initiation was associated with a reduced risk (HR 0.6, CI 0.47–0.78).

Conclusion

Compared to reported national data effective ART coverage in Iganga District was low. Intensified efforts to improve access, retention in care, and quality of documentation are urgently needed. Children and young adults require special attention in the program.