Evaluating the role of regional and local processes in structuring a larval trematode metacommunity of Helisoma trivolvis

Metacommunity theory has advanced our understanding of how local and regional processes affect the structure of ecological communities. While parasites have largely been omitted from metacommunity research, parasite communities can provide the large sample sizes and discrete boundaries often required for evaluating metacommunity patterns. Here, we used assemblages of flatworm parasites that infect freshwater snails (Helisoma trivolvis) to evaluate three questions: 1) what factors affect individual host infections within ponds? 2) Is the parasite metacommunity structured among ponds? And 3) what is the relative role of local versus regional processes in determining metacommunity structure and species richness among ponds? We examined 10 821 snails from 96 sites in five park complexes in the San Francisco Bay area, California, and found 953 infections from six parasite groups. At the within‐pond level, infection status of host snails correlated positively with individual snail size and pond infection prevalence for all six parasite groups. Using an ordination method to test for metacommunity structure, we found that the parasite metacommunity was organized in a non‐random pattern with species responding individually along an environmental gradient. Based on a model selection approach involving local and regional predictors, parasite species richness and metacommunity structure correlated with both local abiotic (pH and total dissolved nitrogen) and biotic (non‐host mollusk density, and H. trivolvis biomass) factors, with little support for regional predictors. Overall, this trematode metacommunity most closely followed the predictions from the species sorting or mass effects metacommunity paradigm, in which community diversity is filtered by local site characteristics.     

Impact of cyclones on hard coral and metapopulation structure,connectivity and genetic diversity of coral reef fish

Cyclones have one of the greatest effects on the biodiversity of coral reefs and the associated species. But it is unknown how stochastic alterations in habitat structure influence metapopulation structure, connectivity and genetic diversity. From 1993 to 2018, the reefs of the Capricorn Bunker Reef group in the southern part of the Great Barrier Reef were impacted by three tropical cyclones including cyclone Hamish (2009, category 5). This resulted in substantial loss of live habitat-forming coral and coral reef fish communities. Within 6–8 years after cyclones had devastated, live hard corals recovered by 50–60%. We show the relationship between hard coral cover and the abundance of the neon damselfish (Pomacentrus coelestis), the first fish colonizing destroyed reefs. We present the first long-term (2008–2015 years corresponding to 16–24 generations of P. coelestis) population genetic study to understand the impact of cyclones on the meta-population structure, connectivity and genetic diversity of the neon damselfish. After the cyclone, we observed the largest change in the genetic structure at reef populations compared to other years. Simultaneously, allelic richness of genetic microsatellite markers dropped indicating a great loss of genetic diversity, which increased again in subsequent years. Over years, metapopulation dynamics were characterized by high connectivity among fish populations associated with the Capricorn Bunker reefs (2200 km²); however, despite high exchange, genetic patchiness was observed with annual strong genetic divergence between populations among reefs. Some broad similarities in the genetic structure in 2015 could be explained by dispersal from a source reef and the related expansion of local populations. This study has shown that alternating cyclone-driven changes and subsequent recovery phases of coral habitat can greatly influence patterns of reef fish connectivity. The frequency of disturbances determines abundance of fish and genetic diversity within species.

     

Response of Pleistocene Coral Reefs to Environmental Change Over Long Temporal Scales

SYNOPSIS. TWO studies from the Pleistocene coral reef fossilrecord demonstrate the sensitivity of reef communities to bothlocal environmental parameters and habitat reduction. In thefirst study, Pleistocene reef coral assemblages from Papua NewGuinea show pronounced constancy in taxonomic composition andspecies diversity between 125 and 30 ka (thousand years). Spatialdifferences in reef coral community composition during successivehigh stands of sea level were greater among sites of the sameage than among reefs of different ages, even though global changesin sea level, atmospheric CO₂ concentration, tropical benthichabitat area, and temperature varied at each high sea levelstand. Thus, local environmental variation associated with runofffrom the land had greater influence on reef coral communitycomposition than variation in global climate and sea level.Proportional sampling from a regional species pool does notexplain the temporal persistence and local factors likely playeda major role. Examination of coral reef response to global changeshould not only involve regional diversity patterns but alsolocal ecological factors, and the interactive effects of localand global environmental change. In the second study, Pleistocene extinction of two widespread,strictly insular species of Caribbean reef corals, Pocilloporacf. palmata (Geister, 1975) and an organ-pipe growth form ofthe Montastraea "annularis" species complex, was natural anddid not involve gradual decrease in range and abundance, butwas sudden (thousands of years) throughout the entire range.One explanation is that sea level drop at the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM—18 ka) resulted in a threshold of habitat reduction,and caused disruption of coral metapopulation structure. Thresholdeffects predicted by metapopulation dynamics may also explainthe apparent paradox of the large amount of degraded modernreef habitat without any known modern-day reef coral extinctions.The rapid extinction of widespread Pleistocene species emphasizesthe vulnerability of reef corals in the face of present rapidenvironmental and climatic change.     

A Stochastic Metapopulation Model with Variability in Patch Size and Position

Analytically tractable metapopulation models usually assume that every patch is identical, which limits their application to real metapopulations. We describe a new single species model of metapopulation dynamics that allows variation in patch size and position. The state of the metapopulation is defined by the presence or absence of the species in each patch. For a system of n patches, this gives 2ⁿ possible states. We show how to construct and analyse a matrix describing transitions between all possible states by first constructing separate extinction and colonisation matrices. We illustrate the model′s application to metapopulations by considering an example of malleefowl, Leipoa ocellata, in southern Australia, and calculate extinction probabilities and quasi-stationary distributions. We investigate the relative importance of modelling the particular arrangement of patches and the variation in patch sizes for this metapopulation and we use the model to examine the effects of further habitat loss on extinction probabilities.     

metacom: an R package for the analysis of metacommunity structure

Metacommunity theory is an extension of metapopulation theory with the goal of understanding how ecological communities vary through space and time. One off‐shoot of metacommunity theory deals with understanding how community structure varies along biotic or environmental gradients. The Elements of Metacommunity Structure framework is a three‐tiered analysis of metacommunity structure that enables the user to identify metacommunity properties that arise in site‐by‐species incidence matrices. These properties can then be related to underlying variables that influence species distributions. The EMS framework is now implemented in metacom, an open source R package that allows for the analysis and plotting of metacommunities.     

Patch quality and context, but not patch number, drive multi-scale colonization dynamics in experimental aquatic landscapes

Colonization and extinction are primary drivers of local population dynamics, community structure, and spatial patterns of biological diversity. Existing paradigms of island biogeography, metapopulation biology, and metacommunity ecology, as well as habitat management and conservation biology based on those paradigms, emphasize patch size, number, and isolation as primary characteristics influencing colonization and extinction. Habitat selection theory suggests that patch quality could rival size, number, and isolation in determining rates of colonization and resulting community structure. We used naturally colonized experimental landscapes to address four issues: (a) how do colonizing aquatic beetles respond to variation in patch number, (b) how do they respond to variation in patch quality, (c) does patch context affect colonization dynamics, and (d) at what spatial scales do beetles respond to habitat variation? Increasing patch number had no effect on per patch colonization rates, while patch quality and context were critical in determining colonization rates and resulting patterns of abundance and species richness at multiple spatial scales. We graphically illustrate how variation in immigration rates driven by perceived predation risk (habitat quality) can further modify dynamics of the equilibrium theory of island biogeography beyond predator-driven effects on extinction rates. Our data support the importance of patch quality and context as primary determinants of colonization rate, occupancy, abundance, and resulting patterns of species richness, and reinforce the idea that management of metapopulations for species preservation, and metacommunities for local and regional diversity, should incorporate habitat quality into the predictive equation.     

Genetic diversity and gene flow in a rare New Zealand skink despite fragmented habitat in a volcanic landscape

Anthropogenic habitat fragmentation often restricts gene flow and results in small populations that are at risk of inbreeding. However, some endangered species naturally occupy patchy habitat where local population extinction and recolonization are normal. We investigated population fragmentation in the range‐restricted New Zealand small‐scaled skink (Oligosoma microlepis), documenting changes in habitat occupancy and analyzing mitochondrial, microsatellite, and morphological variation sampled across the geographical range of the species (approximately 100 km²). Small‐scaled skinks have a strong preference for rocky outcrops that exist in a mosaic of other habitat types. A metapopulation structure was indicated by both local extinction and colonization of new sites. We found relatively high mtDNA nucleotide site diversity within this narrow range (π = 0.004; 16S), evidence of inter‐patch gene flow, and no statistical support for inbreeding. Gene flow was limited by geographical distance, although the existence of pasture between habitat patches apparently has not prevented skink dispersal. Generalized linear models indicated an association between body size and location suggesting a local environmental influence on phenotype. Prior to human‐induced habitat modification, native forest probably separated preferred sites and, less than 2000 years ago, volcanic activity devastated much of the area currently occupied by O. microlepis. This skink appears able to re‐establish populations if other human‐linked factors such as agricultural intensification and introduced predators are limited. Although in contrast to expectations for a scarce and localized species living in a highly modified landscape, this lizard may have previously adapted to a dynamic, mosaic environment mediated by volcanism.     

Coral reef distribution, status and geomorphology–biodiversity relationship in Kuna Yala (San Blas) archipelago, Caribbean Panama

Most of the knowledge of the reef geomorphology and benthic communities of Kuna Yala coral reefs (Caribbean Panama) comes from the western side of the archipelago, a few tens of kilometers around Punta San Blas (Porvenir). To bridge the gap between Porvenir and the Colombia–Panama border, we investigated with Landsat images the extent and geomorphological diversity of the entire Kuna Yala to provide geomorphologic maps of the archipelago in 12 classes. In addition to remote sensing data, in situ survey conducted in May–June 2001 provided a Kuna Yala-wide first synoptic vision of reef status, in terms of benthic diversity (number of species of coral, octocorals, and sponges) and reef health (coral versus algal cover). For a total reef system estimated to cover 638 km² along 480 km of coastline, 195 km² include coral dominated areas and only 35 km² can be considered covered by corals. A total of 69 scleractinian coral, 38 octocoral, and 82 sponge species were recorded on the outer slopes of reef formations, with a slightly higher diversity in the area presenting the most abundant and diverse reef formations (western Kuna Yala). Attempts to relate benthic diversity and geomorphological diversity provided only weak relationships regardless of the taxa, and suggest that habitat heterogeneity within geomorphological areas explain better the patterns of coral diversity. This study confirms the potential of combined remote sensing and in situ surveys for regional scale assessment, and we suggest that similar approaches should be generalized for reef mapping and assessment for other reef sites.     

Spatial patterns of coexistence of competing species in patchy habitat

The single-species spatially realistic patch occupancy metapopulation model is, in this study, extended to a metacommunity of many competing species. Competition is assumed to reduce the local carrying capacity (effective patch area), which in turn increases local extinction rates and reduces colonization rates because of smaller population sizes. Each species is described by three parameters: pre-competitive abundance (equilibrium incidence of patch occupancy, which reflects the rate of colonization in relation to extinction rate), the spatial range of migration, and competitive ability. The model ignores spatio–temporal correlations caused by interspecific interactions, because in metacommunities of unequal competitors inhabiting heterogeneous landscapes, correlations in the occurrence of species are driven more by patch heterogeneity than by competition. The model allows the calculation of multispecies equilibria in patchy habitats without simulations. In general, the number of coexisting species in the metacommunity increases with decreasing strength of competition, increasing rate of colonization, and decreasing range of migration. Habitat heterogeneity in the form of spatial variation in patch areas tends to facilitate coexistence. Poor competitors may coexist with superior competitors in the patch network if the former have higher colonization rates (competition–colonization trade-off). When migration distances are short, competition leads to spatial pattern formation: Species tend to have restricted spatial distributions in the network, but contrary to intuitive expectations, often the distributions of many species are nested. Having more dispersive species enhances both local and global diversity, whereas more local migration decreases local but increases global diversity.     

Dances with fire: Tracking metapopulation dynamics of<Emphasis Type="Italic">polygonella basiramia</Emphasis> in Florida scrub (USA)

The regional persistence of species subject to local population colonization and extinction necessarily depends on how landscape features and disturbance affect metapopulation dynamics. Here, we characterize the metapopulation structure and short-term dynamics ofPolygonella basiramia. This rare, short-lived perennial herb is endemic to Florida scrublands and lacks a seed bank. Fires create the open sand gaps within a shrub matrix that support this species but also kill established plants. Thus, persistence depends on frequent colonization of unoccupied gaps. We are monitoring population dynamics within and among 1204 gaps distributed among 19 shrub patches. Considerable subpopulation turnover is evident at the gap level with rates of gap extinction exceeding rates of colonization in the first year. Whether declines in overall abundance continue is likely to depend on patterns of disturbance and regional stochasticity in this dynamic landscape.Polygonella is more likely to occupy larger and less isolated gaps, demonstrating that landscape features and disturbance strongly affect metapopulation dynamics. BecausePolygonella basiramia displays characteristics, occupancy patterns, and turnover dynamics consistent with metapopulation theory, it represents a model system for studying plant metapopulations.     

Dispersal-induced desynchronization: from metapopulations to metacommunities

The conceptualization of fragmented populations in terms of metapopulation theory has become standard over the last three decades. It is well known that increases in between‐patch migration rates cause more synchronous population fluctuations and that this coherence increases the risk of global metapopulation extinction. Because species’ migration rates and the probability of individuals surviving migration events depend on the effective distance between patches, the benefit of improving conservation corridors or the matrix between habitat patches has been questioned. As populations occur in the context of larger communities, moving from a metapopulation to a metacommunity model framework is a natural extension to address the generality of these conclusions. We show how considering a metacommunity can modify the conclusion that decreasing the effective distance between habitat patches (via improving matrix quality or other measures) necessarily increases the degree of metapopulation synchrony. We show that decreases in effective between‐patch distance may deter population synchrony because of the simultaneous effect this change has on the migration patterns of other species. These results indicate that species interactions need to be considered when the effect of conservation measures on population synchrony, and ultimately persistence, is addressed.     

Effects of local negative feedbacks on the evolution of species within metacommunities

Local negative feedbacks occur when the occupation of a site by a species decreases the subsequent fitness of related individuals compared to potential competitors. Such negative feedbacks can enhance diversity by changing the spatial structure of the environment. The conditions, however, involve dispersive, environmental and evolutionary processes in complex interactive ways. We introduce a model that accounts for four mechanisms: colonisation‐competition‐extinction ecological dynamics, evolutionary dynamics, local negative feedbacks and environmental averaging. Three qualitatively distinct dynamics are possible, one dominated by specialists, another dominated by generalists and an intermediate situation exhibiting taxon cycles. We discuss how metacommunity diversity, macro‐ecological patterns and environmental patterning are linked to the three qualitative dynamics. The model provides classical shapes for morph‐abundance distributions, or diversity‐area relationships. Diversity can be high when specialists dominate or when taxon cycles happen. Finally, local negative feedbacks often yield fine‐grain environments for taxon cycle dynamics and coarse‐grain environments when generalists dominate.     

Using functional diversity patterns to explore metacommunity dynamics: a framework for understanding local and regional influences on community structure

The metacommunity concept, describing how local and regional scale processes interact to structure communities, has been successfully applied to patterns of taxonomic diversity. Functional diversity has proved useful for understanding local scale processes, but has less often been applied to understanding regional scale processes. Here, we explore functional diversity patterns within a metacommunity context to help elucidate how local and regional scale processes influence community assembly. We detail how each of the four metacommunity perspectives (species sorting, mass effects, patch dynamics, neutral) predict different patterns of functional beta‐ and alpha‐diversity and spatial structure along two key gradients: dispersal limitation and environmental conditions. We then apply this conceptual model to a case study from alpine tundra plant communities. We sampled species composition in 17 ‘sky islands’ of alpine tundra in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA that differed in geographic isolation and area (key factors related to dispersal limitation) and temperature and elevation (key environmental factors). We quantified functional diversity in each site based on specific leaf area, leaf area, stomatal conductance, plant height and chlorophyll content. We found that colder high elevation sites were functionally more similar to each other (decreased functional beta‐diversity) and had lower functional alpha‐diversity. Geographic isolation and area did not influence functional beta‐ or alpha‐diversity. These results suggest a strong role for environmental conditions structuring alpine plant communities, patterns consistent with the species sorting metacommunity perspective. Incorporating functional diversity into metacommunity theory can help elucidate how local and regional factors structure communities and provide a framework for observationally examining the role of metacommunity dynamics in systems where experimental approaches are less tractable.     

Landscape-scale response to local habitat restoration in the regal fritillary butterfly (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Speyeria idalia</Emphasis>) (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae)

The butterfly Speyeria idalia was once a widespread species in the midwestern United States, but declined precipitously during the 1980s. By the early 1990s in NW Indiana and adjacent NE Illinois, it was reduced to a single site where it persisted as a precarious three deme metapopulation managed using prescribed fire. In 1996, a large-scale high diversity restoration was initiated at the site to restore ecological connectivity for grassland and oak barrens communities across the site. Among many restoration goals, we included restoring connectivity for habitat restricted insect communities across the highly fragmented site. In support of that goal, we included over 620 local genotype plant species in the restoration. S. idalia responded positively to the restoration and was the most abundant butterfly across the site in 2014. Ironically, we incorrectly considered the primary hostplant at the site, Viola bicolor, to be non-native when we initiated the restoration and did not include it in our seed mixes. This weedy annual aggressively expanded into the restoration without our assistance. We believe that we transformed the precarious metapopulation into a well-connected patchy population across the restoration. In addition, the butterfly occupied previously unoccupied habitats far beyond the restoration. This suggests that we have created a regional mainland—island metapopulation structure, with the restoration serving as a source of immigrants that sustains colonization rates at or above the rate of local deme extinction across a landscape that currently spans almost 60 km.     

NEUTRAL GENETIC DIVERSITY IN A METAPOPULATION WITH RECURRENT LOCAL EXTINCTION AND RECOLONIZATION

Many species exist as metapopulations in balance between local population extinction and recolonization, processes that may strongly affect the distribution of neutral genetic diversity within demes and in the metapopulation as a whole. In this paper we use both the infinite-alleles and the infinite-sites models to reframe Slatkin's propagulepool and migrant-pool models in terms of mean within-deme and among-deme genetic diversity; the infinite-sites model is particularly relevant to DNA sequence data. Population turnover causes a major reduction in neutral genetic diversity within demes, π_S, and in the metapopulation as a whole, π_t. This effect is particularly strong for propagulepool colonization, in which colonists are drawn from a single extant deme. Because metapopulation dynamics affect both within-deme and total metapopulation diversity similarly, comparisons between species with different ecologies on the basis of ratios such as F_ST are difficult to interpret and absolute measures of divergence between populations should be used as well. Although the value of F_ST in a metapopulation with local extinction depends strongly on the mode of colonization, this has almost no effect on the numerator of the F_ST ratio, π_t – π_S, so that F_ST is influenced mainly by the effect of the colonization mode on the denominator (π_t). Our results also indicate that it is inappropriate to use measures of average within-deme diversity in species with population turnover to estimate the scaled mutation rate, θ, because extinction can greatly reduce π_S. Finally, we discuss the effect of population turnover on the effective size of a metapopulation.     

Dispersal, edaphic fidelity and speciation in species-rich Western Australian shrublands: evaluating a neutral model of biodiversity

Over evolutionary time, the number of species in a community reflects the balance between the rate of speciation and the rate of extinction. Over shorter time‐scales local species richness is also affected by how often species move into and out of the local community. These processes are at the heart of Hubbell's ‘unified neutral theory of biodiversity’ ( Hubbell 2001 ). Hubbell's spatially implicit, dispersal‐limited neutral model is the most widely used of the many implementations of neutral theory and it provides an estimate of the rate of speciation in a metacommunity (if metacommunity size is known) and the rate at which species migrate into the local community from the wider metacommunity. Recently, this neutral model has been used to compare rates of speciation and migration in the species‐rich fynbos of South Africa and in neotropical forests. Here we use new analytical methods for estimating the neutral model's parameters to infer speciation and dispersal rates for three sites in species‐rich sclerophyll shrublands (equivalent to fynbos) in Western Australia (WA). Our estimates suggest that WA shrublands are intermediate between fynbos and tropical rainforest in terms of speciation and dispersal. Although a weak test, the model predicts species abundance distributions and species accumulation curves similar to those observed at the three sites. The neutral model's predictions also remain plausible when confronted with independent data describing: (1) known edaphic relationships between sites, (2) estimates of metacommunity species richness and (3) rates of speciation among resprouters and nonsprouters. Two of the site pairs, however, show species turnovers significantly different from those predicted by the spatially implicit form of the neutral model that we use. This suggests that non‐neutral processes, in this case probably edaphic specialisation, are important in the WA shrubland metacommunity. The neutral model predicts similar rates of speciation in resprouter and sprouter taxa, a finding supported by recent molecular phylogenies. Finally, when converted into temporally scaled speciation rates and species longevities, the estimates produced by the neutral model seem implausible. The apparent departure from neutrality in the turnover of species between some sites and the implausible temporal dynamics may be due to the particular model chosen and does not reduce the significance of our other results, which confirm that local dispersal limitation, coupled with broader scale edaphic fidelity, combine to structure this biodiverse metacommunity.     

Evolution of dispersal in a predator-prey metacommunity

Dispersal is crucial to allowing species inhabiting patchy or spatially subdivided habitats to persist globally despite the possibility of frequent local extinctions. Theoretical studies have repeatedly demonstrated that species that exhibit a regional metapopulation structure and are subject to increasing rates of local patch extinctions should experience strong selective pressures to disperse more rapidly despite the costs such increased dispersal would entail in terms of decreased local fitness. We extend these studies to consider how extinctions arising from predator-prey interactions affect the evolution of dispersal for species inhabiting a metacommunity. Specifically, we investigate how increasing a strong extinction-prone interaction between a predator and prey within local patches affects the evolution of each species' dispersal. We found that for the predator, as expected, evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) dispersal rates increased monotonically in response to increasing local extinctions induced by strong predator top-down effects. Unexpectedly for the prey, however, ESS dispersal rates displayed a nonmonotonic response to increasing predator-induced extinction rates-actually decreasing for a significant range of values. These counterintuitive results arise from how extinctions resulting from trophic interactions play out at different spatial scales: interactions that increase extinction rates of both species locally can, at the same time, decrease the frequency of interaction between the prey and predator at the metacommunity scale.     

Importance of metapopulation dynamics to explain fish persistence in a river system

1. Habitat modification and fragmentation are key factors responsible for fish population decline worldwide. Previous assessments documented a total of 72 species extinctions for the sole class of Actinopterygii. However, global extinctions are difficult to monitor or study based on fossil records. By contrast, local extinctions occurring at the population level are easier to study. Given this context, an important question relates to whether extinction dynamics studied at the local scale can provide useful information to understand extinctions occurring at larger scales. This would be the case if local extinctions were not balanced by recolonisation as in a classic metapopulation. Our aim is thus to explain the observed regional (per basin) persistence of 252 fish populations by testing contribution of local extinction rates and more generally metapopulation dynamics components.
2. To address this aim, we used the annual extinction probability of 252 regional populations of up to 14 species inhabiting 18 coastal rivers, which became isolated c. 8,500 years ago. We specifically compared extinction probabilities obtained by seven theoretical models to investigate whether regional extinction rates (i.e. loss from a river system) were correlated to local extinction rates (i.e. loss from an occupied site) and the role of metapopulation dynamics to explain regional persistence.
3. Using empirical data, we showed the importance of variables related to metapopulation dynamics to explain extinction rates across the 18 river systems. As expected, the regional extinction rate decreased with the colonisation rate, area, metapopulation size, and percentage of occupied localities. By contrast, an inconsistent relationship emerged between regional and local extinction rates, as species with high local extinction rates were not particularly prone to regional extinction.
4. Our results provide strong support for the contribution of colonisation rates to explain persistence. Overall, our results show that the equilibrium number of occupied localities could be a good predictor of the long-term persistence of metapopulations in rivers. Finally, our results suggest the importance of connectivity to maintain sustainable populations within the river system.

     

Population synchrony and stability in environmentally forced metacommunities

A general prediction from simple metapopulation models is that spatially synchronized forcing can spatially synchronize population dynamics and destabilize metapopulations. In contrast, spatially asynchronous forcing is predicted to decrease population synchrony and promote temporal stability and population persistence, especially in the presence of dispersal. Only recently have studies begun to experimentally address these predictions. Moreover, few studies have experimentally examined how such processes operate in the context of competition communities. Stabilizing processes may continue to operate when placed within a metacommunity context with multiple competing consumers but only at low to intermediate levels of dispersal. High dispersal rates can reverse these predictions and lead to destabilization. We tested this under controlled conditions using an experimental aquatic system composed of three competing species of zooplankton. Metacommunities experienced different levels of dispersal and environmental forcing in the form of spatially synchronous or asynchronous pH perturbations. We found support that dispersal can have contrasting effects on population stability depending on the degree to which population dynamics were synchronized in space. Dispersal under synchronous forcing or no forcing had either neutral of positive effects on spatial population synchrony of all three zooplankton species. In these treatments, dispersal reduced population stability at the local and metapopulation levels for two of three species. In contrast, asynchronously varying environments reduced population synchrony relative to unforced systems, regardless of dispersal level. In these treatments, dispersal enhanced temporal stability and persistence of populations not by reducing population synchrony but by enhancing population minima and spatial averaging of abundances. High dispersal rates under asynchronous forcing reduced the abundance of one species, consistent with increasing regional competition and general metacommunity theory. However, no effects on its stability or persistence were observed. Our work highlights the context‐dependent effects of dispersal on population dynamics in varying environments.     

Asynchronization of local population dynamics and persistence of a metapopulation: a lesson from an endangered composite plant, Aster kantoensis

Fragmentation of a large habitat makes local populations less linked to others, and a whole population structure changes to a metapopulation. The smaller a local population is, the more strengthened extinction factors become. Then, frequent extinctions of local populations threaten persistence of the metapopulation unless recolonizations occur rapidly enough after local extinctions. Spatially structured models have been more widely used for predicting future population dynamics and for assessing the extinction risk of a metapopulation. In this article, we first review such spatially structured models that have been applied to conservation biology, focusing on effects of asynchronization among local population dynamics on persistence of the whole metapopulation. Second, we introduce our ongoing project on extinction risk assessment of an endangered composite biennial plant, Aster kantoensis, in the riverside habitat, based on a lattice model for describing its spatiotemporal population dynamics. The model predicted that the extinction risk of A. kantoensis depends on both the frequency of flood occurrence and the time to coverage of a local habitat by other competitively stronger perennials. Finally, we present a measure (Hassell and Pacala's CV ²) for quantifying the effect of asynchronization among local population dynamics on the persistence of a whole metapopulation in conservation ecology. Received: January 12, 2000 / Accepted: February 8, 2000