Year-to-year Oscillations in Demography of the Strictly Biennial <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pedicularis sylvatica</Emphasis> and Effects of Experimental Disturbances

In 1998–2001, I studied disturbance effects on the population structure and dynamics of a grassland strict biennial Pedicularis sylvatica, and on the species demography (monthly dynamics of seedling recruitment in 1998 and within- and between-year survival in 1998–2000). In two Czech populations, I established three experimental disturbance regimes: (1) a gap treatment, that simulated grazing by clipping vegetation and creating small gaps, (2) a mowing treatment, where I clipped the vegetation, and (3) a no management treatment, where I left the vegetation untreated. The number of recruiting seedlings varied greatly by year, and demographic structure of populations showed significant year-to-year oscillations in mean seedling numbers, from low (3 ± 0.7 s.e. per 0.25 m² plot) to high (103 ± 20). Inversely in the same years and plots, mean adult numbers in populations oscillated from high (12 ± 2) to low (0.7 ± 0.3). Disturbance effects were only important for seedling recruitment in early census dates in all years. In 1998, most seedlings recruited in April–May in gaps in both sites, but most died before winter. Within- and between-year survival was not affected by disturbance regimes but fluctuated significantly among years. Between-year survival increased with increasing size of the overwintering bud and was higher in disturbance treatments. Since the oscillations in population structure did not significantly vary in response to experimental disturbances, population dynamics may be driven endogenously rather than by disturbance events. The weak disturbance effects on species demography may also indicate population resilience to changes in habitat quality. However, since disturbances promoted seedling recruitment, grazing or mowing regimes are strongly recommended, as they create regeneration opportunities and maintain habitat quality, meeting the species long-term conservation goals.     

How patch configuration affects the impact of disturbances on metapopulation persistence

Disturbances affect metapopulations directly through reductions in population size and indirectly through habitat modification. We consider how metapopulation persistence is affected by different disturbance regimes and the way in which disturbances spread, when metapopulations are compact or elongated, using a stochastic spatially explicit model which includes metapopulation and habitat dynamics. We discover that the risk of population extinction is larger for spatially aggregated disturbances than for spatially random disturbances. By changing the spatial configuration of the patches in the system--leading to different proportions of edge and interior patches--we demonstrate that the probability of metapopulation extinction is smaller when the metapopulation is more compact. Both of these results become more pronounced when colonization connectivity decreases. Our results have important management implication as edge patches, which are invariably considered to be less important, may play an important role as disturbance refugia.     

Simulated plant population responses to small-scale disturbances in semi-arid shrublands

Abstract. We used a spatially explicit simulation model to examine the impact of small-scale disturbance (created by the digging of aardvarks, Orycteropus afer, and bat-eared foxes, Otocyon megalotis or as a management action) on the temporal and spatial dynamics of a typical Karoo shrub plant community, and to gather insight into the interplay between disturbance structure and population dynamics. Establishment, growth, mortality, seed dispersal and competitive interactions were modelled over long time-scales in annual time-steps under the influence of stochastic and unpredictable rainfall. Three disturbance regimes were included, varying the type, rate and size of the small-scale disturbances. The impact of a disturbance regime on long-term community dynamics depends on complex interactions between disturbance characteristics and life-history attributes of component species. Plant density decreased with overall disturbance rates; this effect was independent of the type of disturbance. A given type and rate of disturbance did not influence all species within a guild (e.g. colonizer species) in the same way. The reason for these differences was that species responded not only to the disturbance but to changes in competition intensity from other species and changes in their reproductive potential relative to other species as well. Such interactions resulted in a sequential change in dominant species within guilds as disturbance rates increased. An increase in the overall disturbance rate did not always produce the trend in evenness expected from the intermediate disturbance hypothesis, but was influenced by the relative abundance of different types of disturbance.     

Evolutionary responses of dispersal distance to landscape structure and habitat loss

It is generally well understood that some ecological factors select for increased and others for decreased dispersal. However, it has remained difficult to assess how the evolutionary dynamics are influenced by the spatio-temporal structure of the environment. We address this question with an individual-based model that enables habitat structure to be controlled through variables such as patch size, patch turnover rate, and patch quality. Increasing patch size at the expense of patch density can select for more or less dispersal, depending on the initial configuration. In landscapes consisting of high-quality and long-lived habitat patches, patch degradation selects for increased dispersal, yet patch loss may select for reduced dispersal. These trends do not depend on the component of life-history that is affected by habitat quality or the component of life-history through which density-dependence operates. Our results are based on a mathematical method that enables derivation of both the evolutionary stable strategy and the stationary genotype distribution that evolves in a polymorphic population. The two approaches generally lead to similar predictions. However, the evolutionary stable strategy assumes that the ecological and evolutionary time scales can be separated, and we find that violation of this assumption can critically alter the evolutionary outcome.     

Disturbance and the role of refuges in mediterranean climate streams

Refuges protect plant and animal populations from disturbance. Knowledge of refuges from disturbance in mediterranean climate rivers (med-rivers) has increased the last decade. We review disturbance processes and their relationship to refuges in streams in mediterranean climate regions (med-regions). Med-river fauna show high endemicity and their populations are often exposed to disturbance; hence the critical importance of refuges during (both seasonal and supraseasonal) disturbances. Disturbance pressures are increasing in med-regions, in particular from climatic change, salinisation, sedimentation, water extraction, hydropower generation, supraseasonal drought, and wildfire. Med-rivers show annual cycles of constrained precipitation and predictable seasonal drying, causing the biota to depend on seasonal refuges, in particular, those that are spatially predictable. This creates a spatial and temporal mosaic of inundation that determines habitat extent and refuge function. Refuges of sufficient size and duration to maintain populations, such as perennially flowing reaches, sustain biodiversity and may harbour relict populations, particularly during increasing aridification, where little other suitable habitat remains in landscapes. Therefore, disturbances that threaten perennial flows potentially cascade disproportionately to reduce regional scale biodiversity in med-regions. Conservation approaches for med-river systems need to conserve both refuges and refuge connectivity, reduce the impact of anthropogenic disturbances and sustain predictable, seasonal flow patterns.     

Macroinvertebrate community dynamics in a temperate European Atlantic river. Do they conform to general ecological theory?

Spatial and temporal dynamics of macroinvertebrate communities have usually been linked to several environmental and anthropic factors. The aim of this study is to elucidate how important are these factors in structuring macroinvertebrate communities from temperate regions. Regarding the macroinvertebrate number of taxa, the Habitat Template Model, the Dynamic Equilibrium Hypothesis and the Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis will be tested in order to know how important the diversity of instream elements and the hydrological disturbance frequency are in defining the macroinvertebrate taxonomic richness. Thus, the structure and composition of macroinvertebrate communities were analysed in nine sites of the Pas River basin, a temperate Atlantic basin in northern Spain, during winter, spring, summer and autumn 2005, together with water physicochemical and environmental characteristics. Macroinvertebrate abundance increased downstream and during summer, probably favoured by lower hydraulic stress and water organic enrichment. As predicts the Habitat Template Model, the macroinvertebrate number of taxa was related to habitat heterogeneity. However, no clear relationship amongst macroinvertebrate richness and water quality was found. The macroinvertebrate taxonomic richness did not correspond exactly with the Dynamic Equilibrium Hypothesis and the Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis because it was relatively high in the absence of hydrological disturbances (summer). Thus, disturbance events may play a secondary role in determining the seasonal dynamic of the number of taxa. However, hydrological disturbances can be considered the most important factors explaining the seasonal pattern of macroinvertebrate abundance. On the other hand, spatial patterns of macroinvertebrate community structure and composition were mainly determined by resource availability, hydraulic conditions, habitat heterogeneity and human alterations, whilst hydrological predictability and resource availability might play a major role in determining seasonal dynamics.     

The relative importance of life-history variables to population growth rate in mammals: Cole's prediction revisited

The relative importance of life-history variables to population growth rate (lambda) has substantial consequences for the study of life-history evolution and for the dynamics of biological populations. Using life-history data for 142 natural populations of mammals, we estimated the elasticity of lambda to changes in age at maturity (alpha), age at last reproduction (omega), juvenile survival (Pj), adult survival (Pa), and fertility (F). Elasticities were then used to quantify the relative importance of alpha, omega, Pj, Pa, and F to lambda and to test theoretical predictions regarding the relative influence on lambda of changes in life-history variables. Neither alpha nor any other single life-history variable had the largest relative influence on lambda in the majority of the populations, and this pattern did not change substantially when effects of phylogeny and body size were statistically removed. Empirical support for theoretical predictions was poor at best. However, analyses of elasticities on the basis of the magnitude (F) and onset (alpha) of reproduction revealed that alpha, followed by F, had the largest relative influence on lambda in populations characterized by early maturity and high reproductive rates, or when F/alpha > 0.60. When maturity was delayed and reproductive rates were low, or when F/alpha < 0.15, survival rates were overwhelmingly most influential, and reproductive parameters (alpha and F) had little relative influence on lambda. Population dynamic consequences of likely responses of biological populations to perturbations in life-history variables are examined, and predictions are made regarding the numerical dynamics of age-structured populations on the basis of values of the F/alpha ratio.     

Density-dependent habitat selection: evaluating isoleg theory with a Lotka-Volterra model

Contemporary models of density-dependent habitat selection generally focus on long-term evolutionary consequences of intraspecific or interspecific competition and/or patterns of resource use in patchy environments. A primary goal of such studies often is to elucidate evolutionary stable strategies based on steady-state dynamics of population growth. In contrast, we developed a simulation model to explore short-term movements of interspecific competitors among fine-grained habitats of differing attributes, as might result from field manipulations of habitat quality or population densities. In this model, habitat quality is expressed in terms of mean individual fitness, represented by average per capita growth rate calculated according to the Lotka-Volterra equations describing interspecific competition. This model provides a mechanism for quantifying the effects of habitat quality, patterns of resource use and competition on distributions of individuals. Results demonstrate the heuristic value of this model in corroborating predictions derived from the ideal free distribution and isodar theory, and in generating isolegs to test the predictions of isoleg theory. Results indicate that small changes in model parameters have substantial impacts on patterns of habitat use and co-occurrence between species. The model identifies a variety of conditions under which isolegs for a given type of community organization deviate from predictions of contemporary isoleg theory, potentially expanding the universe of possible interspecific behaviors underlying the development of evolutionary stable strategies.     

Impact of pocket gopher disturbance on plant species diversity in a shortgrass prairie community

Summary We examined the impact of pocket gopher disturbances on the dynamics of a shortgrass prairie community. Through their burrowing activity, pocket gophers (Thomomys bottae) cast up mounds of soil which both kill existing vegetation and create sites for colonization by competitively-inferior plant species. Three major patterns emerge from these disturbances: First, we show that 10 of the most common herbaceous perennial dicots benefit from pocket gopher disturbance; that is, a greater proportion of seedlings are found in the open space created by pocket gopher disturbance than would be expected based on the availability of disturbed habitat. Additionally, these seedlings exhibited higher growth rates than adjacent seedlings of the same species growing in undisturbed habitat. Second, we tested two predictions of the Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis and found that species diversity was greatest for plots characterized by disturbances of intermediate age. However, we did not detect significant differences in diversity between plots characterized by intermediate and high levels of disturbance, indicating that many species are adapted to or at least tolerant of high levels of disturbance. Third, we noted that the abundance of grasses decreased with increasing disturbance, while the abundance of dicots increased with increasing disturbance.     

Directionality theory: an empirical study of an entropic principle in life-history evolution

Understanding the relationship between ecological constraints and life-history properties constitutes a central problem in evolutionary ecology. Directionality theory, a model of the evolutionary process based on demographic entropy, a measure of the uncertainty in the age of the mother of a randomly chosen newborn, provides an analytical framework for addressing this problem. The theory predicts that in populations that spend the greater part of their evolutionary history in the stationary growth phase (equilibrium species), entropy will increase. Equilibrium species will be characterized by high iteroparity and strong demographic stability. In populations that spend the greater part of their evolutionary history in the exponential growth phase (opportunistic species), entropy will decrease when population size is large, and will undergo random variation when population size is small. Opportunistic species will be characterized by weak iteroparity and weak demographic stability when population size is large, and random variations in these attributes when population size is small. This paper assesses the validity of these predictions by employing a demographic dataset of 66 species of perennial plants. This empirical analysis is consistent with directionality theory and provides support for its significance as an explanatory and predictive model of life-history evolution.     

Disturbance regime and limits on benefits of refuge use for fishes in a fluctuating hydroscape

Refuge habitats increase survival rate and recovery time of populations experiencing environmental disturbance, but limits on the ability of refuges to buffer communities are poorly understood. We hypothesized that importance of refuges in preventing population declines and alteration in community structure has a non‐linear relationship with severity of disturbance. In the Florida Everglades, alligator ponds are used as refuge habitat by fishes during seasonal drying of marsh habitats. Using an 11‐year record of hydrological conditions and fish abundance in 10 marshes and 34 alligator ponds from two regions of the Everglades, we sought to characterize patterns of refuge use and temporal dynamics of fish abundance and community structure across changing intensity, duration, and frequency of drought disturbance. Abundance in alligator ponds was positively related to refuge size, distance from alternative refugia (e.g. canals), and abundance in surrounding marsh prior to hydrologic disturbance. Variables negatively related to abundance in alligator ponds included water level in surrounding marsh and abundance of disturbance‐tolerant species. Refuge community structure did not differ between regions because the same subset of species in both regions used alligator ponds during droughts. When time between disturbances was short, fish abundance declined in marshes, and in the region with the most spatially extensive pattern of disturbance, community structure was altered in both marshes and alligator ponds because of an increased proportion of species more resistant to disturbance. These changes in community structure were associated with increases in both duration and frequency of hydrologic disturbance. Use of refuge habitat had a modal relationship with severity of disturbance regime. Spatial patterns of response suggest that decline in refuge use was because of decreased effectiveness of refuge habitat in reducing mortality and providing sufficient time for recovery for fish communities experiencing reduced time between disturbance events.     

Population responses to perturbations: the importance of trait-based analysis illustrated through a microcosm experiment

Environmental change continually perturbs populations from a stable state, leading to transient dynamics that can last multiple generations. Several long-term studies have reported changes in trait distributions along with demographic response to environmental change. Here we conducted an experimental study on soil mites and investigated the interaction between demography and an individual trait over a period of nonstationary dynamics. By following individual fates and body sizes at each life-history stage, we investigated how body size and population density influenced demographic rates. By comparing the ability of two alternative approaches, a matrix projection model and an integral projection model, we investigated whether consideration of trait-based demography enhances our ability to predict transient dynamics. By utilizing a prospective perturbation analysis, we addressed which stage-specific demographic or trait-transition rate had the greatest influence on population dynamics. Both body size and population density had important effects on most rates; however, these effects differed substantially among life-history stages. Considering the observed trait-demography relationships resulted in better predictions of a population's response to perturbations, which highlights the role of phenotypic plasticity in transient dynamics. Although the perturbation analyses provided comparable predictions of stage-specific elasticities between the matrix and integral projection models, the order of importance of the life-history stages differed between the two analyses. In conclusion, we demonstrate how a trait-based demographic approach provides further insight into transient population dynamics.     

Interactions between frequency and size of disturbance affect competitive outcomes

Disturbance has many effects on ecological communities, and it is often suggested that disturbance can affect species diversity by altering competitive outcomes. However, disturbance regimes have many distinct aspects that may act, and interact, to influence species diversity. While there are many theoretical models of disturbance-prone communities, few have specifically documented how interactions between different aspects of a disturbance regime change competitive outcomes. Here, we present a model of two plant species subject to disturbance which we then use to examine species coexistence over varying levels of two aspects of disturbance: frequency, and spatial extent (i.e., area disturbed). We show that the competitive outcome is affected differently by changes in each aspect and that the effect of disturbance frequency on species coexistence depends strongly on the spatial extent of the disturbance, and vice versa. We classify the nature of these interactions between disturbance frequency and extent on the basis of the shape of the resulting coexistence regions in a frequency?Cextent parameter plane. Our results illustrate that different types of interaction can result from differences in life-history traits that control species-specific sensitivity to frequency and extent of disturbance. Thus, our analysis shows that the various aspects of disturbance must be carefully considered in concert with the life-history traits of the community members in order to assess the consequences of disturbance.     

Combined disturbances and the role of their spatial and temporal properties in shaping community structure

Disturbances are characteristic for many ecosystems. However, we still lack generalizations concerning their role in shaping communities, particularly when disturbances co-occur. To study such effects, we used a novel modeling approach that is unrestricted by a priori tradeoffs among specific plant traits, except for those generated by allocation principles. Thus, trait combinations were emergent properties associated with biotic and abiotic constraints. Specifically, we asked which traits dominate under specific disturbance regimes, whether single and combined disturbance regimes promote similar trait tradeoffs and how complex disturbance regimes affect species richness and functional diversity. Overall, disturbances’ temporal properties governed the outcome of combined disturbances and were a stronger assortative force than spatial disturbance properties: low temporal predictability decreased seed-dispersability and dormancy, but increased competitive ability and disturbance tolerance. Evidence for tradeoffs between different colonization modes and between dormancy and disturbance tolerance were found, while surprisingly, the widely accepted colonization–competition tradeoff was not generated. Diversity was highest at intermediate disturbance intensity, but decreased monotonically with increasing unpredictability. In accordance with our results, future models should avoid restrictive assumptions about tradeoffs to generate robust and more general predictions about the role of disturbances for community dynamics.     

Patch dynamics and metapopulation theory: the case of successional species

We present a mathematical framework that combines extinction-colonization dynamics with the dynamics of patch succession. We draw an analogy between the epidemiological categorization of individuals (infected, susceptible, latent and resistant) and the patch structure of a spatially heterogeneous landscape (occupied-suitable, empty-suitable, occupied-unsuitable and empty-unsuitable). This approach allows one to consider life-history attributes that influence persistence in patchy environments (e.g., longevity, colonization ability) in concert with extrinsic processes (e.g., disturbances, succession) that lead to spatial heterogeneity in patch suitability. It also allows the incorporation of seed banks and other dormant life forms, thus broadening patch occupancy dynamics to include sink habitats. We use the model to investigate how equilibrium patch occupancy is influenced by four critical parameters: colonization rate, extinction rate, disturbance frequency and the rate of habitat succession. This analysis leads to general predictions about how the temporal scaling of patch succession and extinction-colonization dynamics influences long-term persistence. We apply the model to herbaceous, early-successional species that inhabit open patches created by periodic disturbances. We predict the minimum disturbance frequency required for viable management of such species in the Florida scrub ecosystem.     

Age structure, growth, mortality, and density of belugas (Delphinapterus leucas) in the Canadian Arctic: responses to environment?

Environmental constraints on life-history traits are expected to increase with seasonality in resources such as food and appropriate breeding habitat. Seasonality is highest at polar latitudes, where environmental constraints can be stronger than biotic factors, such as density and its effect on intraspecific competition. In this study, the age structure, body-length distribution, mortality, and density were studied and compared among five beluga populations of the Canadian Arctic: eastern Beaufort Sea (EBS), Baffin Bay (BB), Cumberland Sound (CS), western (WHB), and eastern Hudson (EHB) Bay, to test the prediction that density-dependent effects on these life-history traits should be inversely related to latitude. Growth, but not mortality, showed a significant positive relationship with latitude. Winter density also increased with winter latitude, consistent with the prediction of greater risk of mortality associated with density-independent effects, such as ice entrapment in winter. Age distributions differed among populations, with animals harvested at the highest-latitude population (EBS) being the oldest and attaining the longest adult body lengths, compared to lower-latitude populations (WHB and EHB). The latitudinal variation in growth, adult body size, and winter density is congruent with the hypothesis that environmental seasonality may impose stronger constraints on life-history traits of beluga with increasing latitude.     

Functional attributes of two subtropical shrubs and implications for the distribution and management of endangered bird habitat

Aims The fruits of Erithalis fruticosa L. and Lantana involucrata L. are important in the diet of US federally endangered Kirtland's Warblers (Setophaga kirtlandii) wintering in the Bahamas archipelago. These two shrubs occur in tropical and subtropical dry forests, including forests that have been subjected to recent disturbance. Despite their importance to the endangered warbler, the disturbance ecology of these shrubs is poorly understood. We sought to determine, based on functional characteristics of the plants, whether their presence is favored by a particular type or regime of disturbance.Methods We used data from field experiments (seed broadcasting and shrub cutting) conducted on the island of Eleuthera, The Bahamas to determine mechanisms of and conditions favoring establishment and persistence ('vital attributes') of E. fruticosa and L. involucrata, which enabled categorization according to the plant functional types defined by Noble and Slatyer (1980). We then compared hypothesized distributions of these plant functional types among different anthropogenic disturbance regimes to observed distributions of E. fruticosa and L. involucrata in order to identify disturbance regimes most likely to produce habitat used by Kirtland's Warblers.Important findings E. fruticosa and L. involucrata were functionally categorized as widely dispersed but largely shade intolerant species capable of establishing or regenerating individuals after disturbance via both seeds and vegetative mechanisms. Both hypothesized and observed distribution patterns indicated the shrubs were favored by a regime of frequent disturbance producing open canopy and ground layers. Among the anthropogenic disturbances we examined, areas of large-scale land clearing combined with subsequent goat grazing most often supported E. fruticosa and L. involucrata, while the shrubs were relatively rare in burned areas. Utilizing the plant functional type framework in combination with field data to evaluate predictions of species occurrence among different disturbances regimes provides a strong theoretical basis for conservation strategies. Understanding which disturbance types favor a habitat of concern and the mechanisms by which they do so can aid the prioritization of areas for protection or the design of habitat management protocols.     

Disturbance, invasion and re-invasion: managing the weed-shaped hole in disturbed ecosystems

We aim to develop a simple model to explore how disturbance and propagule pressure determine conditions for successful invasion in systems where recruitment occurs only in disturbed sites. Disturbance is often thought to favour invaders as it allows recruitment; however, the effects of disturbance are more complicated when it results in mortality of the invader. When disturbance rates in both invader occupied and unoccupied sites are the same, recruitment and mortality effects are exactly balanced, and successful invasion is independent of the disturbance regime. Differences in the disturbance rates between invader occupied and unoccupied sites can occur through invader modification or management of disturbance. Under these conditions, we found a novel mechanism for the generation of an Allee effect, which occurs when the invader promotes disturbance in sites it already occupies. When Allee effects occur one-off, large-scale disturbances can result in permanent, dramatic shifts in invader abundance; and conversely, reducing the population below a critical threshold can cause extinction.     

Patterns of plant species diversity during succession under different disturbance regimes

Summary I suggest that between-community variations in diversity patterns during succession in plant communities are due to the effects of selection on life history strategies under different disturbance regimes. Natural disturbances to plant communities are simultaneously a source of mortality for some individuals and a source of establishment sites for others. The plant community consists of a mosaic of disturbance patches (gaps) of different environmental conditions. The composition of the mosaic is described by the size-frequency distribution of the gaps and is dependent on the rates and scales of disturbance. The life-history strategies of plant species dependent on some form of disturbance for establishment of propagules should reflect this size-frequency distribution of disturbance patches. An extension of island biogeographic theory to encompass relative habitat area predicts that a community should be most rich in species adapted to growth and establishment in the spatially most common patch types. Changes in species diversity during succession following large scale disturbance reflect the prevalent life history patterns under historically common disturbance regimes. Communities in which the greatest patch area is in large-scale clearings (e.g. following fire) are most diverse in species establishing seedlings in xeric, high light conditions. Species diversity decreases during succession. Communities in which such large patches are rare are characterized by a large number of species that reach the canopy through small gaps and realtively few which regenerate in the large clearings. Diversity increases during succession following a large scale disturbance.Evidence from communities characterized by different disturbance regimes is summarized from the literature. This hypothesis provides an evolutionary mechanism with which to examine the changes in plant community structure during succession. Diversity peaks occurring at intermediate levels of disturbance as discussed by Connell and Huston are interpreted in this context.     

Life-history correlates of maximum population growth rates in marine fishes

Theory predicts that populations of animals with late maturity, low fecundity, large body size and low body growth rates will have low potential rates of population increase at low abundance. If this is true, then these traits may be used to predict the intrinsic rate of increase for species or populations, as well as extinction risks. We used life-history and population data for 63 stocks of commercially exploited fish species from the northeast Atlantic to test relationships between life-history parameters and the rate of population increase at low abundance. We used cross-taxonomic analyses among stocks and among species, and analyses that accounted for phylogenetic relationships. These analyses confirmed that large-bodied, slow-growing stocks and species had significantly lower rates of recruitment and adult production per spawning adult at low abundance. Furthermore, high ages at maturity were significantly correlated with low maximum recruit production. Contrary to expectation, fecundity was significantly negatively related to recruit production, due to its positive relationship with maximum body size. Our results support theoretical predictions, and suggest that a simply measured life-history parameter can provide a useful tool for predicting rates of recovery from low population abundance.