Stability and species richness in complex communities

Using both numerical simulations and analytical methods, we investigate how the stability of ecological communities depends on the number of species they contain. To investigate complex communities, we construct communities from modular "subcommunities" that can have arbitrary community structure; e.g. subcommunities could consist of pairs of predator and prey species, trios of prey, specialist predator and generalist predator, or any collection of interacting species. By building entire communities from subcommunities, we can change the number of species in the community without changing community structure. We further suppose that species sharing the same ecological role in different subcommunities act additively on the per capita population growth rates of other species. Under these assumptions, the inter-actions between species from different subcommunities have no effect on community-level stability, measured by the variability in the combined densities of species sharing the same ecological role in different subcommunities. Furthermore, increasing species richness (i.e. the number of subcommunities comprising the community) increases community-level stability only when it introduces species that respond differently to environmental fluctuations. Therefore, our results support the "insurance hypothesis" that species richness increases community-level stability by insuring that some species in a community are tolerant of different environmental fluctuations.     

Species synchrony and its drivers: neutral and nonneutral community dynamics in fluctuating environments

Independent species fluctuations are commonly used as a null hypothesis to test the role of competition and niche differences between species in community stability. This hypothesis, however, is unrealistic because it ignores the forces that contribute to synchronization of population dynamics. Here we present a mechanistic neutral model that describes the dynamics of a community of equivalent species under the joint influence of density dependence, environmental forcing, and demographic stochasticity. We also introduce a new standardized measure of species synchrony in multispecies communities. We show that the per capita population growth rates of equivalent species are strongly synchronized, especially when endogenous population dynamics are cyclic or chaotic, while their long-term fluctuations in population sizes are desynchronized by ecological drift. We then generalize our model to nonneutral dynamics by incorporating temporal and nontemporal forms of niche differentiation. Niche differentiation consistently decreases the synchrony of species per capita population growth rates, while its effects on the synchrony of population sizes are more complex. Comparing the observed synchrony of species per capita population growth rates with that predicted by the neutral model potentially provides a simple test of deterministic asynchrony in a community.     

Interspecific synchrony of seabird population growth rate and breeding success

Environmental variability can destabilize communities by causing correlated interspecific fluctuations that weaken the portfolio effect, yet evidence of such a mechanism is rare in natural systems. Here, we ask whether the population dynamics of similar sympatric species of a seabird breeding community are synchronized, and if these species have similar exceptional responses to environmental variation. We used a 24‐year time series of the breeding success and population growth rate of a marine top predator species group to assess the degree of synchrony between species demography. We then developed a novel method to examine the species group – all species combined – response to environmental variability, in particular, whether multiple species experience similar, pronounced fluctuations in their demography. Multiple species were positively correlated in breeding success and growth rate. Evidence of “exceptional” years was found, where the species group experienced pronounced fluctuations in their demography. The synchronous response of the species group was negatively correlated with winter sea surface temperature of the preceding year for both growth rate and breeding success. We present evidence for synchronous, exceptional responses of a species group that are driven by environmental variation. Such species covariation destabilizes communities by reducing the portfolio effect, and such exceptional responses may increase the risk of a state change in this community. Our understanding of the future responses to environmental change requires an increased focus on the short‐term fluctuations in demography that are driven by extreme environmental variability.     

Population and community variability in randomly fluctuating environments

The prediction that environmental fluctuations may destabilise populations and yet stabilise aggregate community properties has remained largely untested. We examined population and community stability under constant and fluctuating temperatures in simple planktonic assemblages of differing algal richness. Temperature dependent resource competition produced a highly asymmetric community structure where algal community biomass was dominated by one species. For a given level of species richness, temperature fluctuations induced lower community covariance and thus stabilised community biomass. However, increasing algal species richness increased the variability of population abundance and growth rates, as well as population and community variability. Consumer dynamics were directly destabilised by environmental fluctuations. These results confirm recent theoretical studies suggesting a stabilising effect of environmental fluctuations at the community level. However, they also support the theoretical prediction that increasing species richness may be of limited value for community stability, most especially in asymmetric communities, when competition directly affects population variability.     

The impact of environmental variability and species composition on the stability of experimental microbial populations and communities

Understanding how environmental fluctuations affect the stability of populations and communities is complex, for example, because direct effects of environmental variability on populations may be modified and propagated across communities by species interactions. One way to explore and further understand these complexities is via a factorial manipulation of community composition and environmental conditions. Using laboratory based aquatic microcosms we manipulated environmental fluctuation by creating two environments; one with variable light and one with constant light. Within these environments, community composition was manipulated by constructing communities from all possible combinations of three species that vary in their reliance on light for growth (an autotroph: a diatom completely reliant on light, a heterotroph: a Paramecium species not reliant on light, and a mixotroph: a Paramecium species somewhat reliant on light). Community composition was predicted to affect populations and communities by introducing and altering competitive interactions between species and affecting the degree of niche differentiation between species. We found that population stability was predominantly influenced by an interaction between community composition and environmental variability, whereby the effect of environmental variability synergistically combined with effects of community composition to reduce population stability. Covariance of populations was determined by an interaction between community composition and environmental variability, though this did not result from the effect of niche differentiation between species. Species interactions drove correlations between population biomass and the environment which otherwise did not exist. Our results demonstrate the complex and interrelated effects of abiotic and biotic factors on population and community stability, and suggest the need to consider aspects of community composition when predicting the impact of environmental fluctuations.     

The structure and stability of model ecosystems assembled in a variable environment

To explore how environmental variability may create non‐random community structure, we simulated the assembly of model communities under varying levels of environmental variability. We assembled communities by creating a large pool of randomly constructed species, and then added species from this pool sequentially, allowing extinctions of invading and resident species to occur until the community became saturated. Because much current research on community structure focuses on single trophic levels, we constructed species pools consisting only of competitors. To compare with more realistic communities, we also created species pools with multiple trophic levels. For both types of communities, following assembly we calculated a variety of metrics of community structure, and five measures of community stability. Communities assembled under high environmental variability had fewer species, fewer and weaker interactions among species, and greater evenness in abundance of persisting species. For single trophic‐level communities, community size was dictated primarily by competitive exclusion. In contrast, for multiple trophic‐level communities, community size was increasingly limited by dynamical instabilities as environmental variability increased. Differences in community structure resulting from assembly under high environmental variability led to differences in community stability. According to two measures of stability related to population variability – the characteristic return rate to equilibrium and the coefficient of variation in individual species densities – stability increased for communities assembled under high environmental variability. In contrast, three additional measures of stability that are not directly related to population variability showed a variety of patterns, either increasing, decreasing, or remaining constant. Thus, communities assembled in highly variable environments are not necessarily generically more stable. Our results demonstrate that environmental variability can structure communities and affect their stability properties in non‐trivial ways. Thus, when making predictions about the response of communities to future extinctions or environmental degradation, account should be given to the forces responsible for community structure.     

Biodiversity and persistence of ecological communities in variable environments

Recent analyses of climate data indicate that the intensity and frequency of different weather extremes have increased. Such increased environmental variability may lead to increased species extinction rates and hence have important consequences for the long-term persistence of ecological communities. Here we use model communities in order to investigate the relationship between species richness and community persistence in a fluctuating environment. We model two scenarios: (1) correlated species responses to environmental fluctuations and (2) uncorrelated (independent) species responses. We quantify the risk and extent of species extinctions using the so-called community viability analysis. It is shown that species-rich communities are more sensitive to environmental stochasticity than species-poor communities. Specifically, per species risk of extinction is higher in species-rich communities than in species-poor ones. Moreover, for a given species richness, communities with uncorrelated species responses to environmental variation run a considerable higher risk of losing a fixed proportion of species compared with communities with correlated species responses. We discuss the compatibility of these results with the ecological insurance hypothesis.     

Temporal variability in detritus resource maintains diversity of bacterial communities

Competition theory generally predicts that diversity is maintained by temporal environmental fluctuations. One of the many suggested mechanisms for maintaining diversity in fluctuating environments is the gleaner-opportunist trade-off, whereby gleaner species have low threshold resource levels and low maximum growth rates in high resource concentration while opportunist species show opposite characteristics. We measured the growth rates of eight heterotrophic aquatic bacteria under different concentrations of chemically complex plant detritus resource. The growth rates revealed gleaner-opportunist trade-offs. The role of environmental variability in maintaining diversity was tested in a 28-day experiment with three different resource fluctuation regimes imposed on two four-species bacterial communities in microcosms. We recorded population densities with serial dilution plating and total biomass as turbidity. Changes in resource availability were measured from filter-sterilised medium by re-introducing the consumer species and recording short-term growth rates. The type of environmental variation had no effect on resource availability, which declined slowly during the experiment and differed in level between the communities. However, the slowly fluctuating environment had the highest Shannon diversity index, biomass, and coefficient of variation of biomass in both communities. We did not find a clear link between the gleaner-opportunist trade-off and diversity in fluctuating environments. Nevertheless, our results do not exclude this explanation and support the general view that temporal environmental variation maintains species diversity also in communities feeding chemically complex resource.     

Species coexistence in a variable world

The contribution of deterministic and stochastic processes to species coexistence is widely debated. With the introduction of powerful statistical techniques, we can now better characterise different sources of uncertainty when quantifying niche differentiation. The theoretical literature on the effect of stochasticity on coexistence, however, is often ignored by field ecologists because of its technical nature and difficulties in its application. In this review, we examine how different sources of variability in population dynamics contribute to coexistence. Unfortunately, few general rules emerge among the different models that have been studied to date. Nonetheless, we believe that a greater understanding is possible, based on the integration of coexistence and population extinction risk theories. There are two conditions for coexistence in the presence of environmental and demographic variability: (1) the average per capita growth rates of all coexisting species must be positive when at low densities, and (2) these growth rates must be strong enough to overcome negative random events potentially pushing densities to extinction. We propose that critical tests for species coexistence must account for niche differentiation arising from this variability and should be based explicitly on notions of stability and ecological drift.     

Effect of (a)synchronous light fluctuation on diversity,functional and structural stability of a marine phytoplankton metacommunity

Disentangling the mechanisms that maintain the stability of communities and ecosystem properties has become a major research focus in ecology in the face of anthropogenic environmental change. Dispersal plays a pivotal role in maintaining diversity in spatially subdivided communities, but only a few experiments have simultaneously investigated how dispersal and environmental fluctuation affect community dynamics and ecosystem stability. We performed an experimental study using marine phytoplankton species as model organisms to test these mechanisms in a metacommunity context. We established three levels of dispersal and exposed the phytoplankton to fluctuating light levels, where fluctuations were either spatially asynchronous or synchronous across patches of the metacommunity. Dispersal had no effect on diversity and ecosystem function (biomass), while light fluctuations affected both evenness and community biomass. The temporal variability of community biomass was reduced by fluctuating light and temporal beta diversity was influenced interactively by dispersal and fluctuation, whereas spatial variability in community biomass and beta diversity were barely affected by treatments. Along the establishing gradient of species richness and dominance, community biomass increased but temporal variability of biomass decreased, thus highest stability was associated with species-rich but highly uneven communities and less influenced by compensatory dynamics. In conclusion, both specific traits (dominance) and diversity (richness) affected the stability of metacommunities under fluctuating conditions.     

Host‐parasitoid dynamics in periodic boreal moths

We analyse the population and spatial structures of coastal annual-plant communities, across ten dunes and three years, to explore the role of seed mass in structuring these communities. One suggestion is that annual-plant communities are structured by competition-colonization trade-offs driven by difference among species in seed-allocation strategies, while another perspective is that seed mass influences the ways in which species respond to environmental variation. In support of the competition-colonization trade-off, the two largest-seeded species found on the dunes ( Erodium cicutarium and Geranium molle ) were negatively associated with the other guild members at the 10-mm scale in 1995, suggesting they locally excluded smaller-seeded species in that year (when population densities were high). In support of the environmental response hypothesis, populations of annual plants declined between 1995 and 1996 on eight of the ten dunes, underscoring the importance of year-to-year environmental fluctuations in determining population sizes. The species that became relatively uncommon also became more aggregated in space, and this effect was most pronounced among the small-seeded species. Thus, small-seeded species may be forced to retreat into refuges when conditions are unfavourable, where reduced frequencies of interspecific contacts may increase their chances of persistence. We also show that small-seeded species sometimes reach much higher population densities than larger-seeded species, consistent with earlier findings, but reason that this abundance/seed mass relationship could have resulted from either a competition-colonization trade-off or from different responses of small- and large-seeded species to environmental variation. We conclude that dune-annual species with contrasting seed masses respond differently to environmental variation, while the competition-colonization trade-off plays a lesser role in community dynamics than previously considered.     

A new approach to interspecific synchrony in population ecology using tail association

Standard methods for studying the association between two ecologically important variables provide only a small slice of the information content of the association, but statistical approaches are available that provide comprehensive information. In particular, available approaches can reveal tail associations, that is, accentuated or reduced associations between the more extreme values of variables. We here study the nature and causes of tail associations between phenological or population‐density variables of co‐located species, and their ecological importance. We employ a simple method of measuring tail associations which we call the partial Spearman correlation. Using multidecadal, multi‐species spatiotemporal datasets on aphid first flights and marine phytoplankton population densities, we assess the potential for tail association to illuminate two major topics of study in community ecology: the stability or instability of aggregate community measures such as total community biomass and its relationship with the synchronous or compensatory dynamics of the community''s constituent species; and the potential for fluctuations and trends in species phenology to result in trophic mismatches. We find that positively associated fluctuations in the population densities of co‐located species commonly show asymmetric tail associations; that is, it is common for two species’ densities to be more correlated when large than when small, or vice versa. Ordinary measures of association such as correlation do not take this asymmetry into account. Likewise, positively associated fluctuations in the phenology of co‐located species also commonly show asymmetric tail associations. We provide evidence that tail associations between two or more species’ population‐density or phenology time series can be inherited from mutual tail associations of these quantities with an environmental driver. We argue that our understanding of community dynamics and stability, and of phenologies of interacting species, can be meaningfully improved in future work by taking into account tail associations.     

Interactions among mutualism,competition, and predation foster species coexistence in diverse communities

In natural systems, organisms are simultaneously engaged in mutualistic, competitive, and predatory interactions. Theory predicts that species persistence and community stability are feasible when the beneficial effects of mutualisms are balanced by density-dependent negative feedbacks. Enemy-mediated negative feedbacks can foster plant species coexistence in diverse communities, but empirical evidence remains mixed. Disparity between theoretical expectations and empirical results may arise from the effects of mutualistic mycorrhizal fungi. Here, we build a multiprey species/predator model combined with a bidirectional resource exchange system, which simulates mutualistic interactions between plants and fungi. To reach population persistence, (1) the per capita rate of increase of all plant population must exceed the sum of the negative per capita effects of predation, interspecific competition, and costs of mycorrhizal association, and (2) the per capita numerical response of enemies to mycorrhizal plants must exceed the magnitude of the per capita enemy rate of mortality. These conditions reflect the balance between regulation and facilitation in the system. Interactions between plant natural enemies and mycorrhizal fungi lead to shifts in the strength and direction of net mycorrhizal effects on plants over time, with common plant species deriving greater benefits from mycorrhizal associations than rare plant species.     

The route to extinction in variable environments

Estimating the extinction risk of natural populations is not only an urgent problem in conservation biology but also involves some profound aspects of population dynamics. Apart from the obvious case of a continuous decrease in a population's carrying capacity, understanding the extinction process necessarily includes environmental and demographic stochasticity. Here, we build from first principles two stochastic, single-population models that can account for various routes to extinction via demographic and environmental variability. The Ricker model of population dynamics generates extinctions from either low or high (around or above carrying capacity) population densities, primarily depending on the growth parameter r . Since extinctions from high densities seem 'unnatural', there is either something wrong with the model or with our intuition. Suitable data are scarce. Environmental variability has its strongest influence on extinction risk via per capita birth rates and is only marginally influencing that risk via per capita death rates if the growth parameter is high. The distribution of the environmental noise and the stochastic structure of the model have quantitative, but not qualitative effects on the estimates of extinction risks. We conclude that to determine the route to extinction and to estimate the extinction risk require a careful choice of both the deterministic component of the population model (e.g., under- or over-compensation) and the structure of the demographic and environmental variabilities.     

Mean conditions predict salt marsh plant community diversity and stability better than environmental variability

Environmental variability and the frequency of extreme events are predicted to increase in future climate scenarios; however, the role of fluctuations in shaping community composition, diversity and stability is not well understood. Identifying current patterns of association between measures of community stability and climatic means and variability will help elucidate the ways in which altered variability and mean conditions may change communities in the future. Salt marshes provide essential ecosystem services and are increasingly threatened by sea‐level rise, land‐use change, eutrophication and predator loss, yet the effects of temporal environmental variation on salt marshes remain unknown. We synthesized long‐term plant community monitoring data from 11 sites on both coasts of the United States. We used an information‐theoretic approach and linear models to determine the associations among long‐term mean conditions, interannual environmental variability, and plant community stability and diversity. We found that salt marsh community stability and diversity were more strongly related to long‐term means of temperature and precipitation than to interannual variation. Warm and wet environments had fewer species and less turnover among years. Our results suggest that communities in cool, dry environments may be more resilient to climate warming due to greater species richness and turnover. Mean conditions are sufficient to predict contemporary patterns of salt marsh plant community dynamics, but environmental variability may have stronger impacts as it increases with climate change.     

Age- and density-dependent population dynamics in static and variable environments

We consider a general model of a single-species population with age- and density-dependent per capita birth and death rates. In a static environment we show that if the per capita death rate is independent of age, then the local stability of any stationary state is guaranteed by the requirement that, in the region of the steady state, the density dependence of the birth rate should be negative and that of the death rate positive. In a variable environment we show that, provided the system is locally stable, small environmental fluctuations will give rise to small age structure and population fluctuations which are related to the driving environmental fluctuations by a simple “transfer function.” We illustrate our general theory by examining a model with a per capita death rate which is age and density independent and a per capita birth rate which is zero up to some threshold age a₀, adopts a finite density-dependent value up to a maximum age a_o + α, and is zero thereafter. We conclude from this model that resonance due specifically to single-species age-structure effects will only be of practical importance in populations whose members have a life cycle consisting of a long immature phase followed by a short burst of intense reproductive effort (α a_o).     

Species richness–variability relationships in multi-trophic aquatic microcosms

While species loss may affect the temporal variability of populations and communities differently in multi- versus single-trophic level communities, the nature of these differences are poorly understood. Here, we report on an experiment where we manipulated species richness of multi-trophic rock pool invertebrate communities to determine the effects of species richness, S, on the temporal variability of communities, populations, and individual species. As in single-trophic level studies, temporal variability in community abundance decreased with increasing species richness. However, in contrast to most studies in single-trophic level systems, temporal variability of populations also decreased as species richness increased. Furthermore, the variability of the constituent populations strongly correlated with variability of community abundance suggesting that, in rock pools, S affects community variability through its stabilizing effect on component populations. Our results suggest that species loss may affect population and community variability differently in multi-trophic versus single trophic level communities. If this is so, then the mechanisms proposed to underlie the effects of S on community variability in single-trophic communities may have to be supplemented by those that describe contributions to population stability in order to fully describe the patterns observed in multi-trophic communities.     

A general multi-trait-based framework for studying the effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning

Environmental change is as multifaceted as are the species and communities that respond to these changes. Current theoretical approaches to modeling ecosystem response to environmental change often deal only with single environmental drivers or single species traits, simple ecological interactions, and/or steady states, leading to concern about how accurately these approaches will capture future responses to environmental change in real biological systems. To begin addressing this issue, we generalize a previous trait-based framework to incorporate aspects of frequency dependence, functional complementarity, and the dynamics of systems composed of species that are defined by multiple traits that are tied to multiple environmental drivers. The framework is particularly well suited for analyzing the role of temporal environmental fluctuations in maintaining trait variability and the resultant effects on community response to environmental change. Using this framework, we construct simple models to investigate two ecological problems. First, we show how complementary resource use can significantly enhance the nutrient uptake of plant communities through two different mechanisms related to increased productivity (over-yielding) and larger trait variability. Over-yielding is a hallmark of complementarity and increases the total biomass of the community and, thus, the total rate at which nutrients are consumed. Trait variability also increases due to the lower levels of competition associated with complementarity, thus speeding up the rate at which more efficient species emerge as conditions change. Second, we study systems in which multiple environmental drivers act on species defined by multiple, correlated traits. We show that correlations in these systems can increase trait variability within the community and again lead to faster responses to environmental change. The methodological advances provided here will apply to almost any function that relates species traits and environmental drivers to growth, and should prove useful for studying the effects of climate change on the dynamics of biota.     

Food web dynamics in correlated and autocorrelated environments

The densities of populations in a community or food web vary as a consequence of both population interactions and environmental (e.g. weather) fluctuations. Populations often respond to the same kinds of environmental fluctuations, and therefore experience correlated environments. Furthermore, some environmental factors change slowly over time, thereby producing positive environmental autocorrelation. We show that the effects of environmental correlation and autocorrelation on the dynamics of the populations in a food web can be large and unintuitive, but can be understood by analyzing the eigenvectors of the community (system) matrix of interactions among populations. For example, environmental correlation and autocorrelation may either obscure or enhance the cyclic dynamics that generally characterize predator-prey interactions even when there is no direct effect of the environment on how species interact. Thus, understanding the population dynamics of species in a food web requires explicit attention to the correlation structure of environmental factors affecting all species.     

Environmental fluctuations can stabilize food web dynamics by increasing synchrony

Natural food webs are species-rich, but classical theory suggests that they should be unstable and extinction-prone. Asynchronous fluctuations in the densities of competing consumers can stabilize food web dynamics in constant environments. However, environmental fluctuations often synchronize dynamics in nature. Using the same 'diamond-shape' food web model first used to demonstrate the stabilizing effects of asynchrony in constant environments, we show that weak-to-moderate environmentally induced fluctuations in consumer mortality rates stabilize food webs while disrupting asynchrony. Synchrony actually promotes stability because: (i) synchronous declines in consumer density reduce the maximum abundance of top predators and (ii) resource competition quickly converts synchronous increases in consumer density into synchronous declines. These results are robust to details of food web topology and the implementation of environmental fluctuations. The fluctuation strengths that enhance stability are within the range experienced naturally by many species, suggesting that stabilization via environmental fluctuations is a realistic possibility.