The influence of data characteristics on detecting wetland/stream surface-water connections in the Delmarva Peninsula,Maryland and Delaware

The dependence of downstream waters on upstream ecosystems necessitates an improved understanding of watershed-scale hydrological interactions including connections between wetlands and streams. An evaluation of such connections is challenging when, (1) accurate and complete datasets of wetland and stream locations are often not available and (2) natural variability in surface-water extent influences the frequency and duration of wetland/stream connectivity. The Upper Choptank River watershed on the Delmarva Peninsula in eastern Maryland and Delaware is dominated by a high density of small, forested wetlands. In this analysis, wetland/stream surface water connections were quantified using multiple wetland and stream datasets, including headwater streams and depressions mapped from a lidar-derived digital elevation model. Surface-water extent was mapped across the watershed for spring 2015 using Landsat-8, Radarsat-2 and Worldview-3 imagery. The frequency of wetland/stream connections increased as a more complete and accurate stream dataset was used and surface-water extent was included, in particular when the spatial resolution of the imagery was finer (i.e., <10 m). Depending on the datasets used, 12–60% of wetlands by count (21–93% of wetlands by area) experienced surface-water interactions with streams during spring 2015. This translated into a range of 50–94% of the watershed contributing direct surface water runoff to streamflow. This finding suggests that our interpretation of the frequency and duration of wetland/stream connections will be influenced not only by the spatial and temporal characteristics of wetlands, streams and potential flowpaths, but also by the completeness, accuracy and resolution of input datasets.     

Is consolidation drainage an indirect mechanism for increased abundance of cattail in northern prairie wetlands?

In the Prairie Pothole Region of North America, disturbances to wetlands that disrupt water-level fluctuations in response to wet–dry climatic conditions have the potential to alter natural vegetative communities in favor of species that proliferate in stable environments, such as cattail (Typha spp.). We evaluated the effect of water-level dynamics during a recent fluctuation in wet–dry conditions on cattail coverage within semipermanently and permanently ponded wetlands situated in watersheds with different land use and amounts of wetland drainage. We found that ponded water depth increase was significantly greater in wetlands where water levels were not near the spill point of the topographic basin, where banks were steeper, and in larger wetlands where past dry conditions had less influence on change in pond area. Proportion of the wetland covered by cattail was negatively correlated with increased water depth, bank slope and pond area. Our observations provide evidence that cattail coverage in prairie wetlands is regulated by water-level fluctuations and that land use surrounding the wetland might have an indirect effect on cattail coverage by altering water-level response to wet–dry climate conditions. For example, drainage of smaller wetlands into larger wetlands that are characterized by more permanent hydroperiods, leads to stabilized water levels near their spill point and is therefore a potential mechanism for increased cattail abundance in the northern prairie region.     

Evidence for 20th century climate warming and wetland drying in the North American Prairie Pothole Region

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is a globally important resource that provides abundant and valuable ecosystem goods and services in the form of biodiversity, groundwater recharge, water purification, flood attenuation, and water and forage for agriculture. Numerous studies have found these wetlands, which number in the millions, to be highly sensitive to climate variability . Here, we compare wetland conditions between two 30‐year periods (1946–1975; 1976–2005) using a hindcast simulation approach to determine if recent climate warming in the region has already resulted in changes in wetland condition. Simulations using the WETLANDSCAPE model show that 20th century climate change may have been sufficient to have a significant impact on wetland cover cycling. Modeled wetlands in the PPR's western Canadian prairies show the most dramatic effects: a recent trend toward shorter hydroperiods and less dynamic vegetation cycles, which already may have reduced the productivity of hundreds of wetland ‐ dependent species.     

Tracking palustrine water seasonal and annual variability in agricultural wetland landscapes using Landsat from 1997 to 2005

Wetlands densely populate the ecoregion transecting the center of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) known as the Missouri Coteau and epicenter to the most productive waterfowl‐breeding habitat in North America. These palustrine, depressional basin waters vacillate with regional drought and deluge, so surface water fluctuations over time modulate wetland productivity, habitat, and water quality functions. Models predict formidable effects of climate change on glacial basin surface waters, yet large‐scale, long‐term observation data are lacking to compare against predicted changes. Current, optical‐based water detection models do not delineate marsh vegetation from shallow, turbid, high‐chlorophyll waters common to the region. We developed a palustrine wetland spectral model for tracking open surface waters using Landsat imagery, which we evaluated for a 2500 km² landscape that estimates seasonal and annual open water variability for thousands of individual wetlands in the Missouri Coteau ecoregion. Detection accuracy of 96% was achieved for water bodies greater than a half‐pixel in size. We identified shifts in the distribution of water permanence classes within and between years for waters emerging in spring, mid‐summer, and late summer from 1997 to 2005 and identified a maximum of 19 047 basins with open water (12% of the landscape) populating 2500 km². For the 2005 growing season, we observed only 8757 basins with open water (6% of the landscape) for the same area. Declines were greatest for water bodies detected only in spring, suggesting a loss of those wetlands functioning to recharge groundwater stores early in the season and a high sensitivity to observed reductions in snowfall. If landscape factors driving open water coverage and wetland density are similar for the entire Missouri Coteau, we estimate the number of basins containing at least a pixel of water for this region declined from 577 600 to 266 000 between 1997 and 2005.     

Feeding Ecology of Arctic-Nesting Sandpipers During Spring Migration Through the Prairie Pothole Region

ABSTRACT We evaluated food habits of 4 species of spring-migrant calidrid sandpipers in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North Dakota. Sandpipers foraged in several wetland classes and fed primarily on aquatic dipterans, mostly larvae, and the midge family Chironomidae was the primary food eaten. Larger sandpiper species foraged in deeper water and took larger larvae than did smaller sandpipers. The diverse wetland habitats that migrant shorebirds use in the PPR suggest a landscape-level approach be applied to wetland conservation efforts. We recommend that managers use livestock grazing and other tools, where applicable, to keep shallow, freshwater wetlands from becoming choked with emergent vegetation limiting chironomid production and preventing shorebird use.     

Quantifying Geographic Variation in the Climatic Drivers of Midcontinent Wetlands with a Spatially Varying Coefficient Model

The wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region and in the Great Plains are notorious for their sensitivity to weather variability. These wetlands have been the focus of considerable attention because of their ecological importance and because of the expected impact of climate change. Few models in the literature, however, take into account spatial variation in the importance of wetland drivers. This is surprising given the importance spatial heterogeneity in geomorphology and climatic conditions have in the region. In this paper, I use spatially-varying coefficients to assess the variation in ecological drivers in a number of ponds observed over a 50-year period (1961-2012). I included the number of ponds observed the year before on a log scale, the log of total precipitation, and mean maximum temperature during the four previous seasons as explanatory variables. I also included a temporal component to capture change in the number of ponds due to anthropogenic disturbance. Overall, fall and spring precipitation were most important in pond abundance in the west, whereas winter and summer precipitation were the most important drivers in the east. The ponds in the east of the survey area were also more dependent on pond abundance during the previous year than those in the west. Spring temperature during the previous season influenced pond abundance; while the temperature during the other seasons had a limited effect. The ponds in the southwestern part of the survey area have been increasing independently of climatic conditions, whereas the ponds in the northeast have been steadily declining. My results underline the importance of accounting the spatial heterogeneity in environmental drivers, when working at large spatial scales. In light of my results, I also argue that assessing the impacts of climate change on wetland abundance in the spring, without more accurate climatic forecasting, will be difficult.     

Impacts of oil and gas development on duck brood abundance

The extraction of oil and natural gas from reserves in the Bakken Formation has increased from 2004 to 2017 in North Dakota and northeast Montana, USA. High development areas overlap substantially with wetlands and grasslands identified as high priority for waterfowl conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region. To test for anthropogenic disturbance on waterfowl brood abundance, we conducted repeat-visit waterfowl brood surveys during 2014–2017. We tested hypotheses about disturbance and brood abundance using hierarchical zero-inflated Poisson models and a spatially and temporally explicit disturbance index within 3 radii (0.32 km, 0.64 km, 1.51 km). Model selection supported detection and abundance parameters that were consistent with previous research and suggested that brood abundance was higher in landscapes with high densities of small, shallow wetlands. Our analysis also demonstrated a negative relationship between abundance and the disturbance index for the smallest spatial radius (0.32 km); however, the effect size was small and predictions suggested that <1% of the broods in the sample population were affected. Considering this relatively weak negative relationship and the continued role of wetlands as the primary factor influencing brood abundance, we recommended that managers continue to focus conservation efforts in landscapes with high densities of small, unprotected wetlands, even in the presence of oil and gas development. © 2019 The Authors. Journal of Wildlife Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Wildlife Society.     

Low prairie plant communities of wetlands as a function of disturbance: Physical parameters

Understanding how physical parameters within and adjacent to Prairie Pothole Region wetlands affect the surrounding biological communities is important for sound management decisions for agricultural and rangeland settings. We evaluated the wetland, adjacent non-wetland, and landscape physical parameters role in determining low prairie (sub-irrigated) species composition. We first developed hypothetical models using the physical variables collected from 193 wetlands in relation to the existing plant communities. The models were then evaluated using structural equation modeling and a final (alternative) model was developed from these results. The models developed indicated the importance of the low prairie community in proper ecological functioning of associated wetlands. A number of physical parameters measured can be used as indicators of declining plant community condition, one example being the potential of the low prairie plant community to be invaded by exotic species such as Bromus inermis Leyss.     

Aquatic macroinvertebrates are poor indicators of agricultural activity in northern prairie pothole wetlands

The Northern Prairie Pothole Region (NPPR) of Alberta, Canada, contains numerous shallow marshes that serve as important habitat for wildlife and provide essential ecosystem services. Many of these wetlands have been destroyed or degraded by human activity and the majority of remaining wetlands occur in landscapes affected by crop and cattle production. Alberta has implemented a conservation policy which requires the creation of wetland assessment tools. Aquatic macroinvertebrates are frequently used as indicators of environmental condition in rivers, but their effectiveness as indicators in prairie pothole wetlands is not clear. To evaluate the capacity of aquatic macroinvertebrates identified to family-level resolution to serve as regional bioindicators of agricultural disturbance in NPPR wetlands, we sampled macroinvertebrates at 64 fishless wetlands. The wetlands spanned a gradient in the extent of agriculture from 0 to 100% cover within a 500 m buffer around each wetland. We discovered that, contrary to our predictions, macroinvertebrate family richness and community composition could not predict agricultural disturbance (cropping or cattle grazing). We conclude that efforts to develop bioindicators for NPPR wetlands should be redirected to other taxa that are less costly to identify to species and that exhibit sensitivity to agricultural disturbance.     

Effects of fathead minnows and restoration on prairie wetland ecosystems

SUMMARY 1. Research has shown that fish influence the structure and processes of aquatic ecosystems, but replicated studies at the ecosystem level are rare as are those involving wetlands. Some wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America support fish communities dominated by fathead minnows ( Pimephales promelas ) while others are fishless, providing an opportunity to assess the influence of these fish on wetland ecosystems. Additionally, many wetlands have previously been drained and subsequently restored, but the success of these efforts is poorly known and restoration may be impeded by the presence of fish.
2. We assessed the effects of fathead minnows and drainage by studying 20 semipermanent, prairie wetlands in Minnesota from 1996 to 1999. We used a 2 × 2 factorial design to examine the effects of presence and absence of minnows and drainage history (restored/never drained) on the abundance of aquatic invertebrates and amphibians, as well as on the concentrations of chlorophyll a , total phosphorus, total nitrogen and turbidity in the water column.
3. Results showed that fathead minnows are an important determinant of many biotic and abiotic characteristics of wetlands in the eastern PPR. Wetlands with fathead minnows had fewer aquatic insects, large- and small-bodied cladocerans, calanoid copepods, ostracods and larval tiger salamanders, as well as a higher abundance of corixids and greater turbidity and chlorophyll a . A higher concentration of phosphorus in restored basins was the only consistent effect of past management.
4. Fathead minnows usually dominate fish communities in eastern PPR wetlands where fish are present, and can have several strong ecosystem effects. While abiotic variables are important determinants of ecosystem structure in prairie wetlands, they can be strongly influenced by biotic factors.     

Alternative stable states in inherently unstable systems

Alternative stable states are nontransitory states within which communities can exist. However, even highly dynamic communities can be viewed within the framework of stable‐state theory if an appropriate “ecologically relevant” time scale is identified. The ecologically relevant time scale for dynamic systems needs to conform to the amount of time needed for a system's community to complete an entire cycle through its normal range of variation. For some systems, the ecologically relevant period can be relatively short (eg, tidal systems), for others it can be decadal (eg, prairie wetlands). We explore the concept of alternative stable states in unstable systems using the highly dynamic wetland ecosystems of North America's Prairie Pothole Region. The communities in these wetland ecosystems transition through multiple states in response to decadal‐long climate oscillations that cyclically influence ponded‐water depth, permanence, and chemistry. The perspective gained by considering dynamic systems in the context of stable‐state theory allows for an increased understanding of how these systems respond to changing drivers that can push them past tipping points into alternative states. Incorporation of concepts inherent to stable‐state theory has been suggested as a key scientific element upon which to base sustainable environmental management.     

Comparing tiers of a multi-tiered wetland assessment in the Prairie Pothole Region

Wetland assessment has been shown to be an important tool in understanding the condition and function of the world’s wetlands, and use of muli-tiered assessment strategy has been recommended. In order to evaluate the performance of each tier of a multi-tiered wetland assessment strategy, we sampled 255 seasonally-ponded wetlands in the Missouri Coteau, the most wetland dense ecoregion in the Prairie Pothole Region. We assessed the condition of each study wetland using four sampling methods and models (tiers) of increasing levels of effort and complexity: (1) a level 1 assessment using the geographic information system-based Landscape Wetland Condition Analysis Model (LWCAM); (2) a level 2 assessment using the North Dakota Rapid Assessment Method (NDRAM); (3) a level 3- assessment using the vegetative-based Floristic Quality Index (FQI) and (4) a level 3 assessment consisting of a Hydrogeomorphic (HGM) Model functional assessment. We compared assessment tiers to determine how similar the different levels of assessment ranked sites either by condition or function. Both the NDRAM and FQI assessments, though very different in wetland characteristics assessed, provided similar condition rankings as the more intensive level 3 HGM assessment (89 and 90% similar, respectively). Additionally, the FQI was 86% similar to the level 2 NDRAM, indicating that these two assessment methods have utility in assessing wetlands similar to a HGM assessment. Information from this study can be used as a tool for determining need specific, financial, and time appropriate wetland sampling methods.     

Temporal variability in the way local habitat affects duck population growth

Climate change is expected to lead to greater temporal climatic variability across broad spatial extents. A potential consequence is that shifts in climatic conditions might alter how local habitat affects the population growth of animals dependent on those habitats for at least part of their life cycle. We tested whether such a phenomenon occurred when the North American Prairie Pothole Region transitioned through periods of wet and dry conditions by modeling the population growth of seven duck species over 52 years (1961–2012). We found that the influence of local habitat quality—indexed by wetland availability—on duck population growth varied in magnitude and direction on an annual basis. While the effect of wetlands was relatively small in most years, there were some years in which wetlands strongly affected duck population growth in both positive and negative directions (e.g., negative in 2002 and positive in 2008). Contrary to our expectation, inter-annual variability in the effect of wetlands on duck population growth did not depend on regional precipitation. We also found that for two species—American Wigeon (Anas americana) and Green-winged Teal (A. carolinensis)—duck population growth in the presence of wetlands rarely differed from what would be expected solely under density dependence. Our study is the first to demonstrate that the effect of local habitat on population growth varies over time even if the cause of that variation remains unexplained. Consequently, any study that attempts to identify a species’ critical habitat using time series abundance data must consider that local relationships are non-stationary. More complicated measures of climate change may reveal how local drivers of population growth depend on broader temporal climatic patterns.     

Regional assessment of wetland plant communities using the index of plant community integrity

The Index of Plant Community Integrity (IPCI) was developed to assess wetland plant communities in the Prairie Pothole Region. The IPCI evaluates the condition of wetland plant communities based on disturbance level and multiple community attributes. However, the index was developed for seasonal wetlands from limited spatial and temporal data. We tested the index for seasonal wetlands and developed an index for temporary and semi-permanent wetlands by evaluating vegetative composition of wetlands throughout the Northern Glaciated Plains and Northwestern Glaciated Plains Ecoregions of South Dakota, North Dakota, and Montana. In 2003 and 2004, we selected wetlands based on classification and type of disturbance, ranging from little disturbance (native rangeland) to heavily disturbed (cropland). We analyzed the data using the IPCI vegetation metrics developed for seasonal wetlands, and further analyzed using nonmetric multidimensional scaling and cluster analyses. All vegetation metrics tested were significant in indicating disturbance level. Based on data analysis, five biologically significant groups related to intensity of disturbance (Very good, Good, Fair, Poor, and Very poor) were determined for seasonal wetlands, and three condition classes (Good, Fair, and Poor) for temporary and semi-permanent wetlands. Score ranges were assigned to the metrics according to the determined classes. Using the IPCI method, wetlands throughout the Northern and Northwestern Glaciated Plains of South Dakota, North Dakota, and Montana may be placed into disturbance classes. This data can then be used for ecological purposes and mitigation needs such as monitoring trends on reclaimed or restored wetlands, regional inventories, and for evaluation of ecological functions.     

Characteristic community structure of Florida’s subtropical wetlands: the Florida wetland condition index for depressional marshes, depressional forested, and flowing water forested wetlands

Land use and land cover change has a marked affect on wetland condition, and different wetland types are affected differentially depending on many abiotic and biotic variables. To assess wetland condition, we have developed a Florida wetland condition index (FWCI) composed of indicators of community structure in the diatom, macrophyte, and macroinvertebrate assemblages for 216 wetlands (n = 74 depressional marsh, n = 118 depressional forested, n = 24 flowing water forested wetlands). Depressional wetlands located along a human disturbance gradient throughout Florida were sampled for each assemblage. Forested flowing water wetlands were sampled for macrophytes only. The landscape development intensity index (LDI) was used to quantify the human disturbance gradient. In general, human disturbance in adjacent areas had the greatest impact on depressional herbaceous wetlands, followed by depressional forested wetlands. Forested flowing water wetlands (i.e., forested strands and floodplain wetlands) were less affected by local conditions, with most of their changes in wetland condition correlated with alterations at the larger watershed scale. Strong correlations between the FWCIs and LDI index scores suggest that changes in community structure can be detected along a gradient of human land use activities adjacent to wetland ecosystems.     

Changes in the abundance and diversity of coastal wetland fauna from the open water/macrophyte edge towards shore

Great Lakes coastal wetlands are widely recognized as areas of concentrated biodiversity and productivity, but the factors that influence diversity and productivity within these systems are largely unknown. Several recent studies have suggested that the abundance and diversity of flora and fauna in coastal wetlands may be related to distance from the open water/macrophyte edge. We examined this possibility for three faunal groups inhabiting a coastal wetland in Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron. We sampled crustacean zooplankton and benthic macro-invertebrates at five distances from open water in the summer 1994, and fish at three distances from open water in 1994 and 1995. We found significant spatial trends in the total abundance and diversity of zooplankton and fish, as well as the diversity of benthic macro-invertebrates. Zooplankton abundance and taxa richness were highest at intermediate distances from open water in a transition zone between the well-mixed bayward portion of the wetland, and the non-circulating nearshore area. Benthic macro-invertebrate taxa richness increased linearly with distance from open water. In contrast, fish abundance and species richness declined linearly and substantially (abundance by 78%, species richness by 40%) with distance from open water. Of the 40 taxa examined in this study, 21 had significant horizontal trends in abundance. This led to notable differences in community composition throughout the wetland. Our results suggest that distance from open water may be a primary determinant of the spatial distributions of numerous organismal groups inhabiting this coastal wetland. Several possible reasons for these distributions are discussed.     

Effect of wind energy development on breeding duck densities in the Prairie Pothole Region

Industrial wind energy production is a relatively new phenomenon in the Prairie Pothole Region and given the predicted future development, it has the potential to affect large land areas. The effects of wind energy development on breeding duck pair use of wetlands in proximity to wind turbines were unknown. During springs 2008–2010, we conducted surveys of breeding duck pairs for 5 species of dabbling ducks in 2 wind energy production sites (wind) and 2 paired reference sites (reference) without wind energy development located in the Missouri Coteau of North Dakota and South Dakota, USA. We conducted 10,338 wetland visits and observed 15,760 breeding duck pairs. Estimated densities of duck pairs on wetlands in wind sites were lower for 26 of 30 site, species, and year combinations and of these 16 had 95% credible intervals that did not overlap zero and resulted in a 4–56% reduction in breeding pairs. The negative median displacement observed in this study (21%) may influence the prioritization of grassland and wetland resources for conservation when existing decision support tools based on breeding-pair density are used. However, for the 2 wind study sites, priority was not reduced. We were unable to directly assess the potential for cumulative impacts and recommend long-term, large-scale waterfowl studies to reduce the uncertainty related to effects of broad-scale wind energy development on both abundance and demographic rates of breeding duck populations. In addition, continued dialogue between waterfowl conservation groups and wind energy developers is necessary to develop conservation strategies to mitigate potential negative effects of wind energy development on duck populations. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Land use and climate influences on waterbirds in the Prairie Potholes

Aim We examined the influences of regional climate and land‐use variables on mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), blue‐winged teal (Anas discors), ruddy duck (Oxyura jamaicensis) and pied‐billed grebe (Podilymbus podiceps) abundances to inform conservation planning in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States. Location The US portion of Bird Conservation Region 11 (US‐BCR11, the Prairie Potholes), which encompasses six states within the United States: Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota and Iowa. Methods We used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (NABBS), the National Land Cover Data Set, and the National Climatic Data Center to model the effects of environmental variables on waterbird abundance. We evaluated land‐use covariates at three logarithmically related spatial scales (1000, 10,000 and 100,000 ha), and constructed hierarchical spatial count models a priori using information from published habitat associations. Model fitting was performed using a hierarchical modelling approach within a Bayesian framework. Results Models with the same variables expressed at different scales were often in the best model subset, indicating that the influence of spatial scale was small. Both land‐use and climate variables contributed strongly to predicting waterbird abundance in US‐BCR11. The strongest positive influences on waterbird abundance were the percentage of wetland area across all three spatial scales, herbaceous vegetation and precipitation variables. Other variables that we included in our models did not appear to influence waterbirds in this study. Main conclusions Understanding the relationships of waterbird abundance to climate and land use may allow us to make predictions of future distribution and abundance as environmental factors change. Additionally, results from this study can suggest locations where conservation and management efforts should be focused.     

Building the Foundation for International Conservation Planning for Breeding Ducks across the U.S. and Canadian Border

We used publically available data on duck breeding distribution and recently compiled geospatial data on upland habitat and environmental conditions to develop a spatially explicit model of breeding duck populations across the entire Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). Our spatial population models were able to identify key areas for duck conservation across the PPR and predict between 62.1 – 79.1% (68.4% avg.) of the variation in duck counts by year from 2002 – 2010. The median difference in observed vs. predicted duck counts at a transect segment level was 4.6 ducks. Our models are the first seamless spatially explicit models of waterfowl abundance across the entire PPR and represent an initial step toward joint conservation planning between Prairie Pothole and Prairie Habitat Joint Ventures. Our work demonstrates that when spatial and temporal variation for highly mobile birds is incorporated into conservation planning it will likely increase the habitat area required to support defined population goals. A major goal of the current North American Waterfowl Management Plan and subsequent action plan is the linking of harvest and habitat management. We contend incorporation of spatial aspects will increase the likelihood of coherent joint harvest and habitat management decisions. Our results show at a minimum, it is possible to produce spatially explicit waterfowl abundance models that when summed across survey strata will produce similar strata level population estimates as the design-based Waterfowl Breeding Pair and Habitat Survey (r² = 0.977). This is important because these design-based population estimates are currently used to set duck harvest regulations and to set duck population and habitat goals for the North American Waterfowl Management Plan. We hope this effort generates discussion on the important linkages between spatial and temporal variation in population size, and distribution relative to habitat quantity and quality when linking habitat and population goals across this important region.