Analysis of Determining Factors of the Public's Risk Acceptance Level in China

This work will characterize risk acceptance in China, based on the psychometric paradigm, and explore the determining factors that influence the risk acceptable level to the Chinese public. For this purpose, a survey was conducted including 12 hazards, 10 risk attributes (including risk acceptance), and demographic variables. First, the research attempted to explore Nanjing citizens’ average risk acceptable level for 12 hazards in China. Second, intercorrelation analysis and factor analysis of nine risk attributes were performed to obtain the suitable risk perception factors as independent variables. Three risk perception models of acceptance were constructed, which were named “Environmental risk model,” “Daily risk model,” and “Technical risk model,” that explained 59.0–69.6% of variance separately. In general, the variables of Knowledge, Benefit, and Trust were found to be significant in all models, implying that these variables are the main determining factors. However, in the environmental risk model, the variable of effect was also significant, which means the determining factors would change for different types of hazards. These results could help the Chinese government to improve the communication of risks with the public and make effective mitigation policies to improve people's rational judgment on the acceptability of risks.     

浙江省带土苗木传带红火蚁风险调查分析

带土苗木传带红火蚁Solenopsis invicta是导致红火蚁疫情进一步扩散蔓延的关键因素,摸清浙江省带土苗木传带红火蚁的风险,对其快速阻截与有效防控具有重要意义。2016年12月至2022年9月期间,本研究通过问询、目测踏查、诱饵诱集等监测方法,调查了浙江省11个地级市的39个区或县,包括251个苗圃地、26个花卉交易市场、576个档口的红火蚁发生情况。结果表明,龙血树Dracaena draco、玉兰Yulania denudata、山茶Camellia japonica、菜豆树Radermachera sinica、丝葵Washingtonia robusta、木犀Osmanthus fragrans、苏铁Cycas revoluta、樟Cinnamomum camphora、罗汉松Podocarpus macrophyllus、紫叶李Prunus cerasifera、加拿利海枣Phoenix canariensis、叶子花Bougainvillea spectabilis等是浙江省高风险传带红火蚁的带土植物种类。建议今后应该加大对该类带土苗木的检疫,快速发现并阻截红火蚁入侵。     

Spatial Distribution,Potential Sources,and Risk Assessment of Trace Metals of Groundwater in the North China Plain

Diversion of water for irrigation from the Yellow River has impacted groundwater quality in the North China Plain (NCP). In this study, by using geochemical and isotope methods, groundwater origin, the spatial distribution of trace metals, pollution sources, and health risks were evaluated. Groundwater is recharged from surface water. The primary pollution components in surface water were B, Al, Se, Zn, Mn, and Ni—with concentrations exceeding standards by 100%, 84.4%, 64.4%, 31.1%, 20%, and 2.2%, respectively. In groundwater, exceeding standard rates for those elements were 100%, 100%, 61%, 25.7%, 39%, and 4.9%, respectively. The spatial distribution of polluted metals in surface water and groundwater was correlated, indicating an irrigation-influenced spatial distribution of trace metals in the groundwater. The trace metals were introduced via anthropogenic and geogenic activities. Zinc poses the most serious non-carcinogenic hazard for local residents. The ingestion pathway is much more likely to lead to zinc toxicity than the dermal absorption pathway. The carcinogenic Cd and Pb could result in an increased cancer risk for individuals exposed to the water. Non-carcinogenic hazard and carcinogenic risk attributable to groundwater is serious in the regions traversed by the rivers in the study area.     

闽三角城市群生产-生活-生态时空格局演化与功能测度

区域在发展过程中能否实现生产-生活-生态(简称三生)空间的协调,已成为推进生态文明建设进程中亟需解决的重大问题。基于"三生"空间评价体系,以闽三角城市群为研究区,同时构建"三生"空间功能性指数,探讨了近15年来闽三角城市群"三生"空间时空分异格局、功能性水平分异及其动因。结果表明:(1)2000—2015年,闽三角城市群生产、生活空间均集中分布于东部沿海地区且呈扩张趋势,生态空间则集中分布于西部山地、丘陵地区且整体呈缩减变化态势;(2)闽三角城市群"三生"空间功能性水平存在一定的空间集聚性且整体呈降低趋势,功能指数(PLESI)大致以闽三角城市群大都市区的核心-边缘分界线为界划分为东部功能水平较低区(均值为1.96)和西、南部功能水平较高区(均值为2.32);(3)闽三角城市群"三生"空间协调性较差,其竞合、冲突主要由自然和人为双重因素叠加所致。结果旨在能够为未来闽三角城市群"三生"空间竞合格局演变提供预判依据,并为推进"三生"空间协调发展提供决策参考。     

基于贝叶斯方法的湖南湘潭稻米Cd超标风险评估

于湖南省湘潭市下辖的湘潭、雨湖、湘乡3个县市区共采集稻田土壤和稻米样品73组,测定了土壤全Cd含量、土壤有效态Cd含量以及稻米Cd含量,分析了这3种Cd含量之间的相关性.在此基础上,根据先验概率与数据特征,提出了基于贝叶斯方法的稻米Cd超标风险评估方法,建立了风险评估模型.结果表明: 研究区土壤平均Cd含量、土壤有效态Cd含量及稻米Cd含量分别为(0.891±0.638)、(0.791±0.582)和(0.376±0.395) mg·kg^-1,土壤与稻米Cd含量超标率分别高达89.0%和52.1%.湘潭和雨湖稻米Cd含量与土壤Cd全量和有效Cd含量间均呈显著相关关系,且稻米Cd含量与有效Cd含量的相关性更高,湘乡稻米Cd含量与土壤Cd全量及有效Cd含量间均没有相关性.将土壤Cd全量和有效Cd含量作为贝叶斯风险评估模型的变量,预测的稻米Cd超标概率与实际超标率的偏差分别为6.6%和3.9%,说明贝叶斯风险评估模型可靠,但以有效Cd含量为依据的预测结果更准确.     

稻水象甲卵的空间分布型及抽样技术研究

本文利用Taylor幂法则和Iwao回归法对稻水象甲LissorhoptrusoryzophilusKuschel卵的空间分布型进行了测定 ,结果表明稻水象甲卵在田间呈聚集分布 ,且符合负二项分布 ,k值为 0 4 796。其种群聚集主要是由环境因子引起的。应用Iwao的抽样模型建立了稻水象甲卵的田间理论抽样数公式 :N =1D2 1 784 6M + 0 2 4 2 5 。并根据Gerrard的零频率模型建立了估计该种群平均密度的零频率模型 :X =1 5 787( -lnP0 ) 1 0 62 5。     

椰子织蛾传入中国及其海南省的风险性分析

【背景】椰子织蛾原产于印度和斯里兰卡,现主要分布于南亚和东南亚,是椰子、中东海枣、蒲葵等多种棕榈科植物的重要害虫。我国目前尚无椰子织蛾发生为害的报道;但从适生性的角度看,该虫的地理分布区与我国南方棕榈植物分布区具有相似的生物气候,理论上我国热带、亚热带的广大区域是椰子织蛾的潜在地理分布区。鉴于其危害严重性,一旦入侵,其危险程度将超过已在我国发生的重要入侵害虫椰心叶甲。【方法】根据国际植物检疫措施标准（ISPM）规定的有害生物风险性分析（PRA）程序,利用相关风险性分析模型,从国内外分布状况、潜在的危害性、受害寄主的经济重要性、传播扩散的可能性及危险性管理难度5个方面,对椰子织蛾在中国及其海南省的风险性进行定性、定量分析。【结果】椰子织蛾在中国及其海南省的风险值（R）分别为2．20和2．30,在我国属于高度危险性有害生物。【结论与意义】本研究可为制定椰子织蛾的检疫管理对策提供依据。     

广西北部湾近岸生态系统风险评价

根据2009年9月广西北部湾近岸的海洋生态调查资料,利用地理信息系统的空间分析功能,从海水水质、营养水平、生物量和初级生产力水平、生物多样性和生态系统缓冲容量5个方面分析了秋季广西北部湾近岸海域环境现状,并进一步利用生态风险综合指数对广西北部湾海洋生态风险进行了评价.结果表明:2009年秋季,广西北部湾近岸海域生态环境质量较好,大部分生态系统风险指标等级均处于“中低”或“较低”水平,整体处于低风险状态.生态风险综合指数结果显示,广西北部湾海域生态风险分布具有明显的空间异质性,离岸水域生态系统的风险综合指数较低,越靠近港湾内,风险状态等级越高.     

浙江省森林生态系统碳储量及其分布特征

利用2011-2012年野外标准地实测资料, 结合第八次全国森林资源清查资料, 研究了浙江省森林生态系统碳储量及其分布特征。结果表明: 浙江省森林生态系统碳储量为602.73 Tg, 其中乔木层、灌草层、凋落物层和土壤层碳储量分别为122.88 Tg、16.73 Tg、11.36 Tg和451.76 Tg, 分别占生态系统碳储量的20.39%、2.78%、1.88%和74.95%; 在各森林类型中, 阔叶混交林碳储量为138.03 Tg, 所占比例最大(22.90%); 在森林各龄组中, 幼、中龄林约占浙江省森林生态系统碳储量的70.66%, 是碳储量的主要贡献者。浙江省森林生态系统平均碳密度为120.80 t·hm^-2, 乔木层、灌草层、凋落物层和土壤层碳密度分别为24.65 t·hm^-2、3.36 t·hm^-2、2.28 t·hm^-2和90.51 t·hm^-2。浙江省森林生态系统土壤层碳储量和生态系统碳储量呈极显著相关关系, 说明土壤层碳储量对浙江省森林生态系统碳储量贡献较大。浙江省天然林乔木层碳密度整体表现为过熟林>成熟林>近熟林>中龄林>幼龄林, 而人工林乔木层碳密度表现为过熟林>近熟林>成熟林>中龄林>幼龄林。浙江省幼、中龄林林分面积占比重较大, 占全省森林面积的76.76%, 若对现有森林进行更好的经营和管理, 可以增加浙江省森林的碳固存能力。     

Sources and risk assessment of toxic elements in the agricultural soil of Tiantai County of Zhejiang province,China

Abstract

The aim of this study was to quantify the pollution level of toxic elements, their ecological risk and human health hazard in the agricultural soil of Tiantai County, Zhejiang province. A total of 2651 soil samples were collected and analyzed for 13 toxic elements using different analytical techniques. The concentration of Cd, Pb, Hg, Mn, and Zn was higher than the Zhejiang background value in more than 50% of samples. Enrichment factor showed that As, Cd, Hg, Mo, Pb, Se, V, and Zn were anthropogenically loaded and most of the toxic elements showed poor spatial distribution. Nemerow pollution index showed that Chicheng, Shiliang, Pingqiao, Tantou, and Youngxi towns were seriously polluted by toxic elements. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis showed that Co, Cr, Ni, and Cu, whereas, Cd, Pb, and Zn shared the similar source of origin. A large area of Tiantai County experiencing moderate to a serious level of pollution but most of the toxic elements exhibit low risk to the environment except Cd and Hg. Furthermore, children were more prone to health hazards than adults with following order: As?>?Cr?>?Pb?>?Mn. Overall, As and Pb were prominent for pollution, ecological risk, and human health hazards.     

浙江饮用水源地浮游动物群落特征及环境响应

2010年1月至2011年10月,对浙江省16个饮用水源地(H1—H8为河网型,K1—K8为水库型)的浮游动物群落进行季节调查。共记录浮游动物优势种(属)21种(轮虫8种、枝角类5种、剑水蚤5种和哲水蚤3种),各类群第一优势种分别为针簇多肢轮虫(Polyarthra trigla)、长额象鼻溞(Bosmina longirostris)、粗壮温剑水蚤(Thermocyclops dybowskii)和汤匙华哲水蚤(Sinocalanus dorrii)。2年间,河网和水库浮游动物平均密度分别为345.2 L-1和199.4 L-1,生物量分别为0.667 mg/L和0.421mg/L。各类群密度百分比例均以轮虫和桡足类无节幼体为主,甲壳动物以剑水蚤为主。经逐步回归分析表明,浮游动物群落密度(生物量)与河网水质因子(P0.01)之间相关性比水库(P0.05)更密切,总磷和氨氮分别入选了河网和水库所有有效的回归方程中。通径分析和决策系统分析表明,河网的总磷和叶绿素a含量对浮游动物群落变动具有正效应,溶解氧具有负效应;总磷含量是影响河网群落变动的最重要因子,叶绿素a含量则是影响群落增长最主要的限制因子。河网剑水蚤、无节幼体和轮虫群落的密度(生物量)与水体综合营养指数TLIc密度(TLIc生物量)之间有显著的线性回归关系(P0.001),无节幼体密度构成了TLIc密度变动的限制因子,轮虫生物量成为TLIc生物量变动的限制因子,而剑水蚤是一类最重要、稳定的水质指示群落,这对于筛选浮游动物群落的一些拓展性监测指标具有重要的参考作用。     

Dynamic economic thresholds for the management of vegetable leafminer on glasshouse cucumber estimated by simulated defoliation

Defoliation by the vegetable leafminer, Liriomyza sativae Blanchard (Diptera: Agromyzidae), was simulated by removing known amounts of leaf area with a hole punch in a glasshouse experiment that evaluated 21 combinations of defoliation intensity, timing and duration on cucumber yields. Defoliation was quantified in cm²-days (leaf area removed x no. days), and linear regression was used to correlate yield losses to simulated damage. The probability of erroneous decisions associated with different intensities of sequential sampling was explored. Spatial heterogeneity in leafminer infestation and the cumulative impact of defoliation over time were both considered, and the economic costs associated with wrong decisions were also assessed. Significant yield loss was observed beyond 10,000 cm²-days of defoliation, whereas lower defoliation levels were tolerated by plants. The economic injury level (EIL) rose at an increasing rate as the onset of defoliation moved later in the season. An algorithm was used to estimate monthly EILs that farmers can use to guide leafminer management decisions in cucumber and minimize their economic risk.     

天童常绿阔叶林中常绿与落叶物种的物种多度分布格局

物种多度分布是对群落内不同物种多度情况的数量描述, 作为理解群落性质的基石, 其形成机制受到广泛关注。常绿与落叶物种是两类有着不同物候性状与生长策略的物种集合, 它们普遍共存于常绿阔叶林中。在天童20 ha常绿阔叶林动态监测样地内, 虽然常绿物种在物种多度和胸高断面积等指标上占有绝对优势, 但其在物种丰富度上却不及落叶物种。分析两者在常绿阔叶林中的物种多度分布特征, 能够为理解常绿阔叶林内物种多样性的维持机制提供一个全新的视角。为此, 我们基于天童样地的植被调查数据, 一方面利用累积经验分布函数对两类生活型植物的物种多度分布进行描述, 使用Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验(K-S检验)判断其差异性; 另一方面, 采用纯统计模型、生态位模型和中性理论模型对二者的物种多度分布曲线进行拟合, 并基于K-S检验的结果以及AIC值进行最优模型的筛选。结果显示: (1)常绿与落叶物种的物种多度分布曲线间并无显著差异。(2)在选用的3类模型中, 中性理论模型对于两类物种多度分布曲线的拟合效果都最好, 而生态位模型的拟合效果则一般。从上述结果可以看出, 尽管常绿与落叶物种在物种数量和多度等方面均存在差异, 但它们却有着近似的物种多度分布格局以及相近的多样性维持机制。然而, 鉴于模型拟合的结果只能作为理解群落多样性构建机制的必要非充分条件, 故而只能初步判定中性过程对于常绿与落叶物种的物种多样性格局影响更大, 却不能排除或衡量诸如生态位分化等其他过程在两类生活型多样性格局形成中的贡献。     

Evaluation and Spatial Diffusion of Health Risk of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) in Soils Surrounding Chemical Industrial Parks in China

A case study of the cancer risk to humans posed by persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in an industrial area of China, which has a long history of contamination from many sources, is presented. Relatively great concentrations of POPs around the chemical industrial parks have the potential to be chronically carcinogenic to local people. Sixteen individual PAHs listed for priory control by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), metabolites of DDTs, and isomers of HCHs were measured in soils and a human health risk assessment was conducted by use of USEPA exposure models for children and adults, respectively. Geostatistical methods were used to simulate the spatial diffusion of potential carcinogenic risk, and non-parametric Mann-Whitney U and Kruskal-Wallis tests were employed to analyze the impact of point sources on the surrounding area. The mean value of the sum of Excess Lifetime Cancer Risk (∑ELCR) exceeded the generally acceptable risk level of 1.0E-06 recommended by the USEPA for carcinogenic chemicals. The maximum ∑ELCR was 2.9E-04 for children, which was observed inside the chemical industrial parks. Contamination at the chemical industrial parks caused significant spatial diffusion of ELCR values caused by PAHs, DDT, and HCH.     

沿黄稻区灰飞虱越冬种群的时空分布及抽样技术研究

2009—2010年间系统调查了河南省境内沿黄稻区灰飞虱Laodelphax striatellus Fallén越冬种群的时空动态变化,并在田间调查的基础上,运用聚集度指标法和改进的Iwao回归分析法对沿黄稻区灰飞虱越冬种群的空间分布格局、理论抽样数及序贯抽样技术进行了研究。结果表明,灰飞虱在沿黄流域主要以少量3、4龄若虫进行越冬,11月下旬进入越冬期,翌年4月上中旬为越冬代种群发生高峰期,成、若虫虫量分别为22头/m2、43头/m2;灰飞虱成虫在5月中旬开始向水稻田迁飞,迁入高峰时虫量在450头/m2以上;灰飞虱越冬代成虫在麦田中空间分布型的聚集性指标大于1,空间分布型为聚集分布型,在此基础上得出灰飞虱田间调查的理论抽样数公式:N=t2/D2(0.324/m+0.086),并且描述了灰飞虱种群序贯抽样的Iwao模型:Tn=25n±15.4n~(1/2)。研究结果为田间灰飞虱的准确抽样调查和有效防治提供了科学依据。     

Risk Acceptance in the Furniture Sector: Analysis of Acceptance Level and Relevant Influence Factors

ABSTRACT

Risk acceptance has been broadly discussed in relation to hazardous risk activities and/or technologies. A better understanding of risk acceptance in occupational settings is also important; however, studies on this topic are scarce. It seems important to understand the level of risk that stakeholders consider sufficiently low, how stakeholders form their opinion about risk, and why they adopt a certain attitude toward risk. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to examine risk acceptance in regard to occupational accidents in furniture industries. The safety climate analysis was conducted through the application of the Safety Climate in Wood Industries questionnaire. Judgments about risk acceptance, trust, risk perception, benefit perception, emotions, and moral values were measured. Several models were tested to explain occupational risk acceptance. The results showed that the level of risk acceptance decreased as the risk level increased. High-risk and death scenarios were assessed as unacceptable. Risk perception, emotions, and trust had an important influence on risk acceptance. Safety climate was correlated with risk acceptance and other variables that influence risk acceptance. These results are important for the risk assessment process in terms of defining risk acceptance criteria and strategies to reduce risks.     

浙江省发现文昌鱼北大核心CSCD

2021年8月,在浙江省南麂列岛国家级海洋自然保护区发现国家Ⅱ级重点保护野生动物文昌鱼。对采集到的2尾成体文昌鱼(编号:ZJ 01♂,ZJ 02♀)进行了形态测量和线粒体COI基因序列分子系统关系重建,结合形态特征和分子测定结果,确定为文昌鱼科(Branchiostomatidae)文昌鱼属(Branchiostoma)的日本文昌鱼(B.japonicum)。经查阅相关文献资料,其为浙江省首次记录种,这将对文昌鱼资源的保护提供科学资料。     

浙江乌岩岭国家级自然保护区凤尾藓属物种多样性研究

报道了浙江省乌岩岭国家级自然保护区12种凤尾藓属(Fissidens)植物,其中内卷凤尾藓济州岛变种(F.involutus Wilson ex Mitt.var.jejuensis Y.-J.Yoon,B.C.Tan&B.-Y.Sun)为中国首次报道,该变种此前只分布在日本和韩国,其特征是背翅基部明显下延,鞘部细胞的...     

The Effect of Typhoons on the Diversity and Distribution Pattern of Aquatic Plants on Hainan Island,South China

Typhoons are an important meteorological feature of the tropical southwest Pacific. However, little is known about their effects on aquatic plants. Here, we describe the potential influence of typhoons on the diversity and distribution of aquatic plants on Hainan Island, South China. Using a combination of field survey and published data, 266 species or sub‐species belonging to 115 genera in 57 families were found across typhoon impacted regions of the island. Multiple regression analysis indicated that species richness of aquatic plants was correlated with typhoon incidence rather than the area of aquatic habitat within each region. Heavy rainfall, flooding, and strong winds are likely to create suitable habitats and increase the diversity of aquatic habitats in regions frequently affected by typhoons, which may explain the higher species richness found in those regions. Beta diversity and cluster analyses showed that distinct aquatic floras occurred in regions that were impacted by different typhoon pathways. By comparing the aquatic floras of the Philippines and the typhoon‐affected regions of Hainan, we suggest that typhoons have the potential to transport aquatic plants long distances, although there are a number of other potential explanations for the patterns observed in the aquatic flora of Hainan Island.