Earthquake Insurance and Earthquake Risk Management

The Wenchuan earthquake is the largest devastating earthquake striking China since the 1976 Tangshan earthquake. In this catastrophe, loss payments were mainly from the government and public endowment. The insurance industry is expected to take more responsibility in the future, since earthquake insurance is one of the most effective and equitable instruments to disperse earthquake losses. In this article, earthquake risk management and the development of earthquake insurance in China are reviewed. Earthquake insurance is suggested as an instrument in earthquake risk management, where the premium rate of earthquake insurance is a key factor that needs to be determined reasonably. Seismic hazard is analyzed for the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area, and is combined with primary loss estimation to construct the exceeding probability curve. Earthquake insurance premium rates are calculated for buildings in the area, including RC (Reinforced Concrete), frame, and brick, corresponding to two kinds of insurance deductible.     

Mass Collaboration in Earthquake Risk Management

The mechanism of mass collaboration in risk management was studied during the Sichuan earthquake under a Web-based “PeopleFinder” project, where information is contributed and shared among mass contributors. The case study is provided by a great earthquake that happened in Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province, of southwestern China at 2:28 p.m. on May 12, 2008. We witnessed and experienced the rescue and relief efforts for the great earthquake. In this article, two fundamental frameworks are developed to study the mechanism of mass collaboration. Mass collaboration is proven to be effective in a big public crisis such as the Sichuan earthquake.     

REACTION OF FIN WHALES BALAENOPTERA PHYSALUS TO AN EARTHQUAKE

ABSTRACT

Whales living within seismically active regions are subject to intense disturbances from strong sounds produced by earthquakes that can kill or injure individuals. Nishimura & Clark (1993) relate the possible effects of underwater earthquake noise levels in marine mammals, adducing that T-phase source signal level (10- to 30- Hz range) can exceed 200 dB re: 1 μPa at 1 m, for a magnitude 4–5 earthquake, sounds audible to fin whales which produce low frequency sounds of 16–20/25–44 Hz over 0.5–1s, typically of 183 dB re: 1 μPa at 1 m. Here we present the response of a fin whale to a 5.5 Richter scale earthquake that took place on 22 February 2005, in the Gulf of California. The whale covered 13 km in 26 min (mean speed = 30.2 km/h). We deduce that the sound heard by this whale might have triggered the costly energy expenditure of high speed swimming as a seismic-escape response. These observations support the hypothesis of Richardson et al. (1995) that cetaceans may flee from loud sounds before they are injured, when exposed to noise in excess of 140 dB re: 1 μPa 1 m.     

Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring

Whether changes in animal behavior allow for short-term earthquake predictions has been debated for a long time. Before, during and after the 2016/2017 earthquake sequence in Italy, we deployed bio-logging tags to continuously observe the activity of farm animals (cows, dogs, and sheep) close to the epicenter of the devastating magnitude M6.6 Norcia earthquake (Oct–Nov 2016) and over a subsequent longer observation period (Jan–Apr 2017). Relating 5,304 (in 2016) and 12,948 (in 2017) earthquakes with a wide magnitude range (0.4 ≤ M ≤ 6.6) to continuously measured animal activity, we detected how the animals collectively reacted to earthquakes. We also found consistent anticipatory activity prior to earthquakes during times when the animals were in a building (stable), but not during their time on a pasture. We detected these anticipatory patterns not only in periods with high, but also in periods of low seismic activity. Earthquake anticipation times (1–20 hr) are negatively correlated with the distance between the farm and earthquake hypocenters. Our study suggests that continuous bio-logging of animal collectives has the potential to provide statistically reliable patterns of pre-seismic activity that could yield valuable insights for short-term earthquake forecasting. Based on a priori model parameters, we provide empirical threshold values for pre-seismic animal activities to be used in real-time observation stations.     

汶川地震对大熊猫栖息地的影响与恢复对策

 大熊猫是生物多样性保护的旗舰种, 保护大熊猫及其栖息地是保护生物多样性和生态系统功能完整性与稳定性的重要保障体现。汶川地震灾区位于大熊猫重点分布区岷山-邛崃山, 地震及其次生灾害导致该区27个大熊猫自然保护区不同程度受损, 8.3%的大熊猫栖息地因地震而被破坏。地震及其次生灾害对大熊猫栖息地的影响主要表现在: 1) 地震埋没和砸毁大熊猫赖以生存的主食竹, 地震可能诱发主食竹开花, 威胁到大熊猫的健康和食物安全; 2) 地震及其诱发的土壤和山石运动显著影响森林的动态特征, 森林大面积丧失或质量下降; 3) 地震改变大熊猫栖息地生境特征, 大熊猫个体交流的廊道阻断, 形成“生殖孤岛”, 遗传多样性降低, 栖息地破碎化进程加快。应对震后大熊猫栖息地恢复的主要对策有: 1) 重新评估震后大熊猫栖息地质量, 并重新规划现有大熊猫保护区群的布局; 2) 应用地理信息系统、遥感及数学模型等手段与野外实地实证研究相结合的方法, 全面查清震后大熊猫栖息地主食竹资源状况及分布规律并及时监测其动态, 复壮更新大熊猫主食竹; 3) 利用天然植被自然恢复和人工重建等措施恢复因地震而退化或丧失的大熊猫栖息地。     

汶川地震对四川龙溪—虹口和唐家河自然保护区大熊猫栖息地利用格局的影响

2008年的汶川地震发生在大熊猫集中分布的区域,对大熊猫的栖息地造成了严重破坏.利用龙溪—虹口和唐家河两个国家级自然保护区地震前(2003～ 2007)和地震后(2008～ 2010)共计7年的大熊猫监测数据,就汶川地震对大熊猫栖息地利用格局的影响进行了分析.研究结果表明:(1)地震前5年,大熊猫对栖息地的利用格局在年间没有显著变化;(2)地震后的2年间,大熊猫对栖息地的利用格局在年间没有显著变化;(3)地震前后连续7年调查的样线中,大熊猫对栖息地的利用格局在年间没有显著变化;(4)在龙溪一虹口保护区,大熊猫对样线的利用与滑坡体的面积没有显著关系,即大熊猫对栖息地的空间利用没有受到滑坡体面积大小的显著影响;(5)虽然从现有资料发现地震对大熊猫栖息地的利用格局没有显著的影响,但仍然需要在震后加强对大熊猫及其栖息地的保护.     

汶川地震区灾后植被恢复时空过程及特征——以都江堰龙溪河流域为例

定量评估地震区灾后植被恢复,对于灾区生态系统恢复重建及区域社会经济可持续发展规划具有重要科学意义.以都江堰龙溪河流域为案例区,采用MODIS-NDVI的时间序列数据,确定植被恢复评估的Landsat影像时间,并以Landsat影像定量揭示龙溪河流域植被在“5.12”汶川地震前后的动态变化;进而根据区域水系和地形因子,定量解析并揭示植被覆盖度受损恢复率的时空变化特征.结果表明:研究区植被覆盖受损恢复情况整体较好,但植被覆盖度对地震损害的响应存在滞后现象;受损植被恢复率与河流水系距离、海拔、坡度和坡向存在显著的相关性.本研究结果可为地震灾后植被恢复的决策干预提供技术支撑.     

New baseline environmental assessment of mosquito ecology in northern Haiti during increased urbanization

The catastrophic 2010 earthquake in Port‐au‐Prince, Haiti, led to the large‐scale displacement of over 2.3 million people, resulting in rapid and unplanned urbanization in northern Haiti. This study evaluated the impact of this unplanned urbanization on mosquito ecology and vector‐borne diseases by assessing land use and change patterns. Land‐use classification and change detection were carried out on remotely sensed images of the area for 2010 and 2013. Change detection identified areas that went from agricultural, forest, or bare‐land pre‐earthquake to newly developed and urbanized areas post‐earthquake. Areas to be sampled for mosquito larvae were subsequently identified. Mosquito collections comprised five genera and ten species, with the most abundant species being Culex quinquefasciatus 35% (304/876), Aedes albopictus 27% (238/876), and Aedes aegypti 20% (174/876). All three species were more prevalent in urbanized and newly urbanized areas. Anopheles albimanus, the predominate malaria vector, accounted for less than 1% (8/876) of the collection. A set of spectral indices derived from the recently launched Landsat 8 satellite was used as covariates in a species distribution model. The indices were used to produce probability surfaces maps depicting the likelihood of presence of the three most abundant species within 30 m pixels. Our findings suggest that the rapid urbanization following the 2010 earthquake has increased the amount of area with suitable habitats for urban mosquitoes, likely influencing mosquito ecology and posing a major risk of introducing and establishing emerging vector‐borne diseases.     

Impacts of Catastrophic Earthquakes on the Insect Communities in Estuarine Mangroves, Northern Taiwan

As a catastrophic earthquake is unpredictable and occurs only occasionally, impacts on biotic communities are seldom known. Monthly changes in insect communities in the mangroves along the Danshui Estuary were monitored for more than 3 years from before and after two catastrophic earthquakes in Taiwan the Chi–Chi earthquake (M_L = 7.3) of September 21, 1999 and the 3–31 earthquake (M_L = 6.8) of March 31, 2002. Here we show that the Chi–Chi earthquake not only caused large declines in total individual number but also total species number of insects. It also resulted in greater variability among samples, and shifts in insect communities. Non-biting midges and rove beetles, whose immatures inhabited the riparian underground or aquatic sediments, were most severely affected. By 7 months after the Chi–Chi earthquake, the insect communities had recovered to a level comparable to that before the earthquake. However, the influence of the 3–31 earthquake on the insect communities was less severe. It is concluded that the more-severe impacts of the Chi–Chi earthquake than the 3–31 earthquake can be attributable to differences in ground shaking, occurrence time, biodiversity, and growing conditions of insects at those times.     

Electrophysiological evidence of personal experiences in the great Sichuan earthquake impacting on selective attention

Event-related brain potentials (ERPs) were measured when 24 Chinese subjects performed the earthquake color-matching Stroop task. All of them have experienced the great Sichuan earthquake (5.12), with 12 subjects in each of Chengdu city and Chongqing city (different earthquake experiences) groups. The behavioral data showed that the earthquake Stroop task yielded robust the earthquake interference effect as indexed by longer RT for earthquake-related (Related) words than earthquake-unrelated (Unrelated) words only in the Chengdu group. Scalp ERP analysis also revealed the neurophysiological substrate of the interference effect: a greater positivity (P350–450) in Related words as compared to Unrelated words was found between 350 and 450 ms post-stimulus over fronto-central scalp regions in the Chengdu group, while the interference effect was not found in the Chongqing group. The P350–450 might reflect an earthquake experience interference, but also attention enhancing, effect of earthquake-related words. Dipole source analysis of the difference wave (Related-Unrelated) showed that a generator was localized in the parahippocampal gyrus, which was possibly associated with flashbulb memory (personal earthquake experience). The results indicated that different personal earthquake experiences might be critical in engaging the neural mechanisms that underlie the modulation of selective attention. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 30800293), the Key Project of Philosophy and Social Science of Chinese Ministry of Education (Grant No. 08JZD0026), and the Southwest University Doctoral Fund.     

Behavioral change related to Wenchuan devastating earthquake in mice

It has been suggested that some animals are much more capable of perceiving certain kinds of geophysical stimuli which may precede earthquakes than humans, but the anecdotal phenomena or stories about unusual animal behaviors prior to an earthquake should be interpreted with objective data. During the Wenchuan magnitude 8.0 earthquake that happened in Wenchuan county (31.0° north latitude, 103.4° east longitude) of Sichuan province, China, on May 12, 2008, eight mice were monitored for locomotor activity and circadian rhythm in constant darkness with temperature 22–24 °C and humidity 55–65% for 38 days. The ongoing monitoring of locomotor activity of mice in our laboratory made it possible to design a posteriori study investigating whether the earthquake was associated with any change in animal behavior. Based on analyzing the recorded data with single cosinor, we found that the locomotor activity dramatically decreased in six of these eight mice on day 3 before the earthquake, and the circadian rhythm of their locomotor activity was no longer detected. The behavioral change lasted for 6 days before the locomotor activity returned to its original state. Analyses of concurrent geomagnetic data showed a higher total intensity during the span when the circadian rhythm in locomotor activity weakened. These results indicated that the behaviors, including circadian rhythm and activity, in these mice indeed changed prior to the earthquake, and the behavioral change might be associated with a change of geomagnetic intensity. Bioelectromagnetics 30:613–620, 2009. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

基于小波变换的卧龙国家级自然保护区植被时空变化分析

提出一种基于小波变换从长时间序列、大范围遥感数据中快速、自动化检测植被动态变化的方法。以MODIS 500m空间分辨率,16d合成的NDVI数据为数据源,对受到2008年5月12日汶川地震严重影响的卧龙国家级自然保护区内2003年至2012年的植被动态变化进行时空分析,为保护生态多样性及生态系统的稳定性提供依据。研究表明:1)地震后保护区内植被指数减少的面积大范围增加,且波动较震前更为明显,统计分析结果能够更为直观地反映地震及其次生灾害等极端现象对该地区植被的破坏程度;2)保护区内植被指数极值变化多发生在夏季或秋季,较低海拔地区极值变化多发生在夏季,而在高海拔地区则多发生在秋季;3)在大熊猫最适宜栖息的区域(2600—2800m)植被指数极值减少量大于0.4的范围大于增加量大于0.4的范围,反映出植被在震后的恢复状况并没达到理想的水平。同时发现在该海拔区域范围内植被指数减少的面积在春夏两季较大,表明在该时间段卧龙地区大熊猫最适宜生存区域的植被情况较为不稳定,需更为关注其动态,采取适当的保护措施。     

汶川大地震灾后不同滑坡体上柏木体内非结构性碳水化合物的特性

"5.12"汶川大地震不仅直接摧毁森林17.3万hm2,还通过对土壤和林内生境的剧烈改变对现存森林造成潜在威胁。以地震重灾区北川的主要分布树种柏木为研究对象,在2009年6月初(夏初)和10月初(秋季)两个时期,对不同类型柏木林的叶、枝、根可溶性糖和淀粉含量进行测定分析,旨在认识震后初期柏木对逆境胁迫的生理响应,为研究大地震对植物体内碳水化合物的影响和对逆境的适应性提供科学依据。结果表明:地震对柏木体内碳水化合物的含量有较大影响,总体表现为严重滑坡类型具有较高的可溶性糖含量,较低的根系淀粉含量。夏初严重滑坡类型柏木叶、枝、根可溶性糖含量分别为(11.44±1.08)%、(4.64±0.42)%、(5.48±0.51)%。就不同器官而言,可溶性糖含量叶>根>枝,淀粉含量叶>枝>根;夏初碳水化合物含量均高于秋季,且仅叶片可溶性糖和淀粉含量在不同季节存在显著性差异(P<0.05),说明柏木叶片对地震反应最为敏感。地震带来的灾害如山体滑坡等对植物的生理活动产生巨大影响,不利于林木生长。     

Modelling psychological responses to the Great East Japan earthquake and nuclear incident

The Great East Japan (Tōhoku/Kanto) earthquake of March 2011 was followed by a major tsunami and nuclear incident. Several previous studies have suggested a number of psychological responses to such disasters. However, few previous studies have modelled individual differences in the risk perceptions of major events, or the implications of these perceptions for relevant behaviours. We conducted a survey specifically examining responses to the Great Japan earthquake and nuclear incident, with data collected 11-13 weeks following these events. 844 young respondents completed a questionnaire in three regions of Japan; Miyagi (close to the earthquake and leaking nuclear plants), Tokyo/Chiba (approximately 220 km from the nuclear plants), and Western Japan (Yamaguchi and Nagasaki, some 1000 km from the plants). Results indicated significant regional differences in risk perception, with greater concern over earthquake risks in Tokyo than in Miyagi or Western Japan. Structural equation analyses showed that shared normative concerns about earthquake and nuclear risks, conservation values, lack of trust in governmental advice about the nuclear hazard, and poor personal control over the nuclear incident were positively correlated with perceived earthquake and nuclear risks. These risk perceptions further predicted specific outcomes (e.g. modifying homes, avoiding going outside, contemplating leaving Japan). The strength and significance of these pathways varied by region. Mental health and practical implications of these findings are discussed in the light of the continuing uncertainties in Japan following the March 2011 events.     

Automated Hazard Assessment Techniques Using Satellite Images Following the 2008 Sichuan China Earthquake

Rapid seismic hazard assessment is crucial for accurate damage estimation right after earthquakes. New technologies provide faster damage detection compared to the traditional, manual assessments. One of the new technologies includes using satellite images. Pre- and post-earthquake satellite images can be used to identify damage patterns. One of the recent disastrous earthquakes occurred in Sichuan (M_w = 7.9) on May 12, 2008. Records show that 5 million buildings have collapsed, and more than 21 million buildings were damaged. This article presents an approach for earthquake hazard assessment using a change detection method applied to pre- and post-earthquake satellite imagery of Sichuan. The damage inspection for the identified areas was carried out performing image analysis of the pre- and post-event satellite images. In this study, a novel automated image analysis technique was developed to assess the impact of the earthquake on the flooding of the area's rivers as well as the tectonic movement of mountains. The technique was used to quantify the flooding and movement of mountains in Sichuan right after the earthquake. The proposed methodology utilizes satellite images and may potentially be used as a rapid procedure to quantify damage soon after an earthquake.     

Population Patterns of a Riparian Frog (Rana swinhoana) Before and After an Earthquake in Subtropical Taiwan

We compared the population dynamics of a riparian ranid frog, Rana swinhoana, before (1996–1999) and after (1999–2001) a strong earthquake. This earthquake caused little disturbance to the vegetation and landscape of the study site but the stream and ponds dried up within a week. Nearly all frogs marked (1002 of 1004) before the earthquake had disappeared after the earthquake. Smaller, unmarked frogs began to appear in stream habitats about 9 mo after the earthquake, and the frog population was much smaller than it was before the earthquake. Population dynamics and temporal and spatial distribution of frogs before and after the earthquake correlated closely with the hydrology of the stream and ponds. The movement patterns of frogs before and after the earthquake were similar, suggesting frog behavior did not change in response to drastic changes in hydrology, and frogs continued to exhibit strong site-fidelity. Following the earthquake, stream water volume was much lower, especially in the summer, which allowed the normally winter-breeding frogs to breed year-round. Results demonstrate that a population of R. swinhoana can disappear suddenly as the result of a natural disturbance. We propose that anuran species that exhibit strong site-fidelity are particularly susceptible to extirpation of local populations because frogs may lack the behavioral plasticity to respond to sudden water depletion.     

汶川地震重灾区生态系统碳储存功能空间格局与地震破坏评估

通过建立汶川地震灾区碳储存功能评估指标体系,利用ArcGIS平台计算了灾区四大碳库(地上部分碳、地下部分碳、死亡有机碳和土壤碳)碳储存密度,分析了碳储存空间格局和规律.结果表明:灾区碳储存总量3.97×108t,平均碳密度52.2t/hm2,其中亚高山常绿针叶林碳密度和碳储存最高.碳储存量随坡度增加而增加,大于35.地区碳储存量达1.3×108t,占灾区碳存总量的33.9％.碳储量随海拔增加呈现波动的曲线,0-750m区域碳储量随海拔增加而增加,在750-1750m区域段碳储量因地震对植被的破坏出现下降,然后又随海拔增加而增加,到3250m时出现碳储存量高峰,储碳量达7273t,之后又逐渐下降.此外,通过对比地震前后灾区生态系统碳储存功能得出研究区生态系统碳储存功能总体减少为9.98×106t,而地震对碳储存功能的影响主要是植被破坏导致的碳储存降低,其中退化最严重的地区在彭州和什邡的北部山区,并沿龙门山向西南方向延伸.研究结果直观反映了灾区碳储量空间格局,为决策者实施破坏区植被恢复策略以及地震灾区碳管理等提供依据.     

Understanding Acceptable Level of Risk: Incorporating the Economic Cost of Under-Managing Invasive Species

Management of nonindigenous species includes prevention, early detection and rapid response and control. Early detection and rapid response depend on prioritizing and monitoring sites at risk for arrival or secondary spread of nonindigenous species. Such monitoring efforts require sufficient biosecurity budgets to be effective and meet management or policy directives for reduced risk of introduction. Such consideration of risk reduction is rarely considered, however. Here, we review the concepts of acceptable level of risk (ALOR) and associated costs with respect to nonindigenous species and present a framework for aligning risk reduction priorities with available biosecurity resources. We conclude that available biosecurity resources may be insufficient to attain stated and desired risk reduction. This outcome highlights the need to consider policy and management directives when beginning a biosecurity program to determine the feasibility of risk reduction goals, given available resources.     

四川地震灾区灾后一年农村小兽监测报告

为了了解四川汶川5.12大地震后灾区害鼠的种群数量变化和群落演替,预防鼠传疫病的发生,指导灾后的媒介生物控制和鼠源疫病防控。从2008年6月至2009年6月,每月对重灾区的都江堰、彭州、什邡、绵竹、北川和汶川6地灾区进行1次小兽(鼠情)监测。选择农田和村庄2种主要生境,采用夹日法进行调查。其中农田生境的捕获率达7.35%,主要捕获到啮齿目(Rodentia)和食虫目(Insectivora)两类,其中啮齿目为1.49%,食虫目鼩鼱科(Soricidae)为5.86%。捕获的种类有褐家鼠(Rattus norvegicus)、大足鼠(Rattus nitidus)、黄胸鼠(Rattus tanezumi)、小家鼠(Mus musculus)、黑线姬鼠(Apodemus agrarias)、巢鼠(Micromys minutus)、针毛鼠(Niviventer fulvescens)、四川短尾鼩(Anourosorex squamipes)与臭鼩(Suncus Murinus)。村庄区域的捕获率为12.50%,主要捕获的亦是食虫目鼩鼱科的四川短尾鼩,高达10.02%,啮齿目的捕获率为2.48%。捕获的种类有褐家鼠、黄胸鼠、小家鼠和四川短尾鼩。结果表明,经过灾后的各种控制措施,鼠害得到有效的控制,啮齿目种类的捕获率基本低于3%。但食虫目鼩鼱科的捕获率较高,特别是都江堰、彭州、什邡、绵竹四地的四川短尾鼩种群数量高于已有报道的同期水平,并维持较高的繁殖力,且大量进入房舍区域。另外,黑线姬鼠的繁殖率也不低。需密切关注四川短尾鼩和黑线姬鼠种群动态趋势。据以往类似研究结果,结合初步调查数据和从控制鼠传疾病的角度考虑,灾区鼠情的监测要有中长期的思想准备,至少持续3a以上时间。     

Risk management to prioritise the eradication of new and emerging invasive non-native species

Robust tools are needed to prioritise the management of invasive non-native species (INNS). Risk assessment is commonly used to prioritise INNS, but fails to take into account the feasibility of management. Risk management provides a structured evaluation of management options, but has received little attention to date. We present a risk management scheme to assess the feasibility of eradicating INNS that can be used, in conjunction with existing risk assessment schemes, to support prioritisation. The Non-Native Risk Management scheme (NNRM) can be applied to any predefined area and any taxa. It uses semi-quantitative response and confidence scores to assess seven key criteria: Effectiveness, Practicality, Cost, Impact, Acceptability, Window of opportunity and Likelihood of re-invasion. Scores are elicited using expert judgement, supported by available evidence, and consensus-building methods. We applied the NNRM to forty-one INNS that threaten Great Britain (GB). Thirty-three experts provided scores, with overall feasibility of eradication assessed as ‘very high’ (8 species), ‘high’ (6), ‘medium’ (8), ‘low’ (10) and ‘very low’ (9). The feasibility of eradicating terrestrial species was higher than aquatic species. Lotic freshwater and marine species scored particularly low. Combining risk management and existing risk assessment scores identified six established species as priorities for eradication. A further six species that are not yet established were identified as priorities for eradication on arrival as part of contingency planning. The NNRM is one of the first INNS risk management schemes that can be used with existing risk assessments to prioritise INNS eradication in any area.