基于生态位模型的番荔枝实蝇潜在适生性分布预测

番荔枝实蝇Ceratitis artortoe(Graham)是一种重要的外来人侵性检疫害虫.在广东口岸,其幼虫连续从入境旅客所携带的水果中被榆出.目前关于番荔枝实蝇潜在适生性分布的研究进行得很少,但对于我国的生物生态安全却有重要意义.本研究中,我们使用3种牛态位模型(ENFA模型,马氏典型性模型和Maxent模型)对番荔枝实蝇在中斟以及全球范尉内的潜在适生性分布区域进行了预测分析.结果显示:Maxent模型拥有最好的预测精确度,马氏典型件模型次之,而ENFA模型的预测精确度最差;Maxent模型和马氏典型性模型的预测精确度无显著性差异;根据Maxent模型的预测结果,番荔枝实蝇在中国的潜在适生区主要是广西、广东、海南以及云南的少部分地区.分析结果显示,番荔枝实蝇从境外传人中国南部地区并最终在上述地区定殖的风险可能性存在,但风险较小.另外,折刀法(Jackknife)分析显示,6种环境因子,例如地面霜冻频率、年平均降雨量、十月降雨量、四月降雨量、年最低温度以及蒸气压,对于番荔枝实蝇在全球和局部地区的分布模式有显著的影响.     

基于Maxent生态位模型的互花米草在我国沿海的潜在分布

以分布在我国沿海滩涂的96个互花米草分布记录点及覆盖东部沿海区域的海洋环境数据和气候环境数据为材料,利用Maxent生态位模型,研究外来物种互花米草在我国沿海的潜在分布情况.结果表明:互花米草适宜分布区占我国沿海区域的85%,其中高度适宜分布区占18%,中度适宜分布区占34%,低度适宜分布区占33%,不适宜分布区仅为15%.互花米草在我国沿海的地理分布主要受到年均最低海水温度、年均海水温度、年平均气温和1月最低气温4个环境因素的影响,而年均降水量、年均日较差、海水盐度、最高海水温度、7月最高气温及海流速度对互花米草地理分布的影响较小.互花米草高度适宜分布区的最低海水温度为0.62~24.81℃,平均海水温度为10.46~27.29℃,年均气温为9~25℃,1月最低气温为-13.5~16.7℃.互花米草地理分布概率在我国北部沿海区域达到20%以上,互花米草存在向我国北部进一步入侵的趋势,特别是在渤海湾地区,互花米草入侵潜力较大.互花米草在我国不适宜分布区主要集中在海南中部和南部海岸,以及台湾省大部分区域,依据当前我国分布记录及气候数据,这些区域互花米草入侵风险较小,但不排除未来入侵的可能性.     

基于最大熵生态位元模型的入侵杂草春飞蓬在中国潜在分布区的预测

春飞蓬是源自北美的外来入侵杂草,已入侵我国的上海、江苏、安徽等地,并对当地生态系统造成了危害,表现出巨大的入侵潜力.本文将最大熵生态位元(MaxEnt)模型与地理信息系统相结合,综合分析了影响春飞蓬分布的环境因素,直观和定量地预测了春飞蓬在我国的潜在分布区,并采用接受者操作特性曲线( ROC)分析法对预测结果进行验证.结果表明:春飞蓬在我国有广泛的潜在分布区,主要适生区包括上海、江苏、浙江、安徽、河南、湖北、湖南、江西等地.其目前的实际分布远未达到最大潜在分布范围,仍有可能继续扩散.ROC曲线检验结果表明,MaxEnt模型对春飞蓬在中国潜在分布区的预测精度较高,结果可信.春飞蓬潜在入侵区分布可能主要受温度和降水的影响.应高度重视春飞蓬的危害性,采取灭除已经发生的种群、严格监控向最适分布区入侵等措施阻止春飞蓬的扩散蔓延.     

基于生态位模型预测野生油茶的潜在分布

油茶(Camellia oleifera)是我国第一大木本油料作物, 野生油茶是油茶育种的宝贵遗传资源。本研究从中国数字植物标本馆(CVH, http://www.cvh.org.cn/)获得可靠的野生油茶分布点数据, 结合气象和土壤数据, 分别应用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型和规则集遗传算法(GARP)模型构建了野生油茶的生态位模型, 预测了野生油茶的潜在分布区, 并分析了影响野生油茶分布的主要环境变量。根据生态位模型预测的分布概率值, 对野生油茶的潜在分布区划分适生等级, 并与主要油茶产地的实际分布数据进行比较, 以验证适生等级划分的可靠性。结果表明, 两种模型的预测结果均能较好地反映油茶的分布情况。GARP模型预测的潜在分布区更广, 而MaxEnt模型的预测结果更精确。两种模型的预测结果均显示, 野生油茶的潜在分布区大部分位于中国, 但在中南半岛也有部分分布。MaxEnt模型预测的野生油茶在中国的潜在分布区与我国亚热带常绿阔叶林的分布区基本吻合, 高适生区主要可以分为3大区域: (1)东北-西南走向的武夷山脉及附近的群山区域; (2)东西走向的南岭山脉及附近的群山区域; (3)东北-西南走向的武陵山脉及附近的群山区域。MaxEnt模型分析显示, 影响野生油茶分布的主要环境变量是昼夜温差月均值、最干季降水量与最暖季降水量。油茶生长面积较大的地区绝大部分都位于MaxEnt模型预测的中、高适生区, 说明适生等级的划分较可靠。实地考察显示, 生态位模型的预测结果对于寻找野生油茶资源具有较高的参考价值。此外, 本研究也充分显示, 利用中国数字植物标本馆的植物分布数据, 结合相应的环境数据构建生态位模型, 有助于了解作物野生近缘种的地理分布。     

基于Maxent模型的党参全球潜在分布区预测

基于党参全球129个分布点和37个生态因子,利用最大熵模型(Maxent)与地理信息系统(GIS)预测党参的全球生态适宜区.结果表明: 党参的全球生态适宜区总面积达到884.79×10⁴ km²,主要分布在北半球的东亚地区,其中以中国最为集中.中国的党参生态适宜区中,适宜性指数较高的区域主要分布在山西、陕西、四川、甘肃东南地区、西藏东部、云南东南地区、山东东北地区等,中国是党参的最佳栽培区.影响党参地理分布的生态因子主要是气候因子,其中,温度因子起主导作用,降水因子次之;然后依次是地形与土壤因子.年均温和降水的季节性、最冷季平均温、最干季降水量对其影响最大.     

基于最大熵生态位模型的中华穿山甲潜在适宜生境预测

中华穿山甲（Manis pentadactyla）属于全球极度濒危物种,也是我国一级保护动物。对中华穿山甲的非法捕杀曾导致其种群数量锐减。但是,近年来相关研究报道较少,穿山甲分布状况不明,极大地制约了对该物种的有效保护。搜集了近年来国内中华穿山甲的救护记录和救护新闻,甄别出67个记录分布点,利用最大熵模型软件（MaxEnt）进行因子筛选,结果表明最冷季度降水量、人口密度、年降水量、坡度、坡向、海拔等6个环境变量是与中华穿山甲分布显著相关的影响因子。基于6个主导环境变量构建的MaxEnt模型AUC平均值为0.961±0.014,预测结果达到极好标准。刀切法（Jackknife）表明,其中最冷季度降水量、年降水量、人口密度和海拔是影响中华穿山甲分布的主要因素。中华穿山甲适宜生境（出现概率大于0.498）具有以下特点：最冷季度降水量141.22-439.46 mm,年降水量1471.67-2386.56 mm,人口密度≥390人/km²,海拔<316.98 m。该模型预测中华穿山甲在我国的潜在分布适宜区主要位于我国长江以南地区,总面积约为74.27×10⁴ km²,占国土面积的7.73%,主要集中在江西、广东、湖南和广西省,面积分别占该区域的97.58%,89.65%,76.90%和73.08%;其次是浙江、福建、台湾和安徽省。湖北、江苏、四川、云南、贵州等省份也有中华穿山甲的零星分布。湖北东南部、江苏南部、浙江西南部和福建西北部等与江西接壤的区域也是中华穿山甲的重要潜在分布适宜区。明确中华穿山甲的潜在分布适宜区,可为该物种的种群保护和栖息地管理提供科技支撑。     

气候变化情景下基于最大熵模型的青海云杉潜在分布格局模拟

青海云杉(Picea crassifolia)是我国青藏高原东北缘特有树种,在维系我国西北地区生态平衡、水土保持、水源涵养和生物多样性等方面发挥着重要作用。基于其分布范围内的69个地理分布样点,利用最大熵(Maxent)模型对现实气候条件下青海云杉的潜在分布及其分布的主导气候因子进行分析,同时结合3种大气环流模型模拟青海云杉在3种气候变化情景(温室气候排放量不同)下未来2050s和2080s潜在分布区的变化。结果表明:Maxent模型对青海云杉潜在分布区的预测具有极高的准确度,所有模型的平均受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC测试值)均高于0.99;Jackknife检验和气候因子响应曲线表明年最低降雨量是限制青海云杉分布的主导因子;当前青海云杉的潜在分布区主要集中于青海东部、甘肃东南部、宁夏大部分地区、西藏东部、四川西部山区以及陕西、新疆和内蒙古部分地区。在未来3种增温情景下,青海云杉在2050s和2080s的潜在分布总面积与当前相比变化不明显,但不同适生等级的潜在分布面积变化较大,其中,中度适生区和低度适生区受气候增温影响显著,中度增温下这些区域在2080s的面积明显增大,而高度适生区(核心分布)则在所有增温情景下均呈缩小趋势。同时,在未来3种增温情景下,青海云杉在2050s和2080s的潜在分布区有向北移动趋势,但其心分布区域(高度适生区)仍然以青海东部、甘肃北部为主,无明显变迁趋势。从气候因素角度考虑,本研究表明未来气候变化情景下,青海云杉依然在西部高山地区,特别是作为我国重要生态屏障的祁连山、贺兰山等山区具有重要的经济价值并将持续其生态服务功能。     

Maxent模型复杂度对物种潜在分布区预测的影响

生态位模型在入侵生物学和保护生物学中具有广泛的应用, 其中Maxent模型最为流行, 被越来越多地应用在预测物种的现实分布和潜在分布的研究中。在Maxent模型中, 多数研究者采用默认参数来构建模型, 这些默认参数源自早期对266个物种的测试, 以预测物种的现实分布为目的。近期研究发现, Maxent模型采用复杂机械学习算法, 对采样偏差敏感, 易产生过度拟合, 模型转移能力仅在低阈值情况下较好。基于默认参数的Maxent模型不仅预测结果不可靠, 而且有时很难解释。在本研究中, 作者以入侵害虫茶翅蝽(Halyomorpha halys)为例, 采用经典模型构建方案(即构建本土模型然后将其转移至入侵地来评估), 利用ENMeval数据包来调整本土Maxent模型调控倍频和特征组合参数, 分析各种参数条件下模型的复杂度, 然后选取最低复杂度的模型参数(即为最优模型), 综合比较默认参数和调整参数后Maxent模型的响应曲线和预测结果, 探讨Maxent模型复杂度对预测结果的影响及Maxent模型构建时所需注意事项, 以期对物种潜在分布进行合理的预测, 促进Maxent模型在我国的合理运用和发展。作者认为, 环境变量的选择至关重要, 需要综合分析其对所模拟物种分布的限制作用和环境变量之间的空间相关性。构建Maxent模型前需对物种分布采样偏差及模型的构建区域进行合理地判断, 模型构建时需要比较不同参数下模型的预测结果和响应曲线, 选取复杂度较低的模型参数来最终建模。在茶翅蝽的分析中, Maxent模型的默认参数和最优模型参数不同, 与Maxent模型默认参数相比, 采用调整参数后所构建的模型预测效果较好, 响应曲线较为平滑, 模型转移能力较高, 能够较为合理反映物种对环境因子的响应和准确地模拟该物种的潜在分布。     

基于Maxent模型的假臭草潜在分布区预测

为有效开展假臭草的防除工作,运用最大熵值模型(Maxent)和地理信息技术(GIS)对假臭草(Praxelis clematidea)在中国的潜在分布区和影响其分布的主导环境变量进行预测。运用AUC法对预测精度进行评价,达到"优秀"水平。结果表明,Maxent模型预测结果具有较高的可信度。假臭草在中国的潜在适生面积为785985km2,占总国土面积的8.19%,主要分布在华南及东南区域,其中福建、广东、海南和广西省为假臭草的中高适生区。福建省的假臭草分布最为广泛,61.98%的福建区域适合假臭草的生长,其中闽南沿海为假臭草的高适生区,而闽北区域假臭草的种群密度较低。2月最低温可能是限制假臭草分布的主要气候变量,贡献率为61.70%;最干季度降水量、9月最高温对假臭草的分布具有一定的影响。假臭草的分布预测为早期监测和预警提供理论依据和技术支持,防止假臭草的进一步扩散蔓延。     

基于最大熵模型(MaxEnt)预测暗紫贝母的潜在分布

暗紫贝母(Fritillaria unibracteata)干燥的鳞茎是市场名贵药材"川贝"的主要来源,目前由于人们的过度挖采及环境的恶化,使得其野生资源已近枯竭,被列为国家三级濒危保护药材物种。该研究通过收集暗紫贝母的地理分布点经纬度,结合26项生态因子,运用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)并结合地理信息系统(ArcGIS),对其在中国的潜在分布区域进行了预测。结果表明:暗紫贝母的潜在适生区主要分布在四川西部和北部、青海南部、甘肃南部,其中四川阿坝藏族羌族自治州的理县、茂县、松潘县、红原县、黑水县等地区,青海省果洛藏族自治州的久治县、玛沁县、同德县、兴海县、河南县地区以及甘肃省甘南藏族自治州地区是暗紫贝母最佳适生区。此外,在西藏和云南也有零星的分布。对暗紫贝母的分布贡献率较大的主要生态因子有5个,分别是海拔(40.8%),年均降水量(28%),1月最高温度(7.1%),最干季平均温度(6.6%)和昼夜温差日均值(6.6%)。其中,海拔为2700~4 500m、年均降水量为400~1 400mm,是暗紫贝母最适宜生长的生态位参数。该研究结果为暗紫贝母的野生抚育和人工栽培提供了重要的科学依据。     

Biochemical and immunocytochemical analysis of vitellogenesis in the olive fruit fly Dacus (bactrocera) oleae (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Synthesis and selective accumulation of the major yolk proteins in the developing oocytes of the species Dacus oleae (Diptera: Tephritidae) was studied biochemically and by immunoelectron microscopy. In the hemolymph of adult females, two yolk proteins precursors (or vitellogenins) have been detected. They each exhibit a similar molecular weight and isoelectric point to their respective mature yolk proteins (or vitellins), while electrophoretic analysis of their synthetic profile shows that their levels in the hemolymph increase rapidly during development. Immunogold electron microscopy of ovarian sections, revealed that the hemolymph vitellogenins reach the oocyte through enlarged inter-follicular spaces and demonstrated vitellogenin synthesis by the follicle cells of the vitellogenic follicles. The newly synthesized vitellogenins follow a distinct secretory pathway into these cells as compared to other components being synthesized at the same time (e.g. the vitelline envelope proteins), since they were found in secretory vesicles that appeared to be differentiated from those destined to participate in the vitelline envelope. The vitellogenin-containing vesicles exocytose their contents directionally into the follicle cell/vitelline envelope boundary, and subsequently the vitellogenins diffuse among the gaps of the forming vitelline envelope and reach the oocyte plasma membrane. Their internalization by the oocyte includes the formation of an endocytic complex consisting of coated pits, coated vesicles, endosomes, transitional yolk bodies, and finally mature yolk bodies, in which the storage of the vitellins and other yolk proteins occur. These results are discussed in relation to data obtained from other Dipteran species.     

Development of immature stages and comparative demography of two cucurbit-attacking fruit flies in Reunion Island: Bactrocera cucurbitae and Dacus ciliatus (Diptera Tephritidae)

On Reunion Island, two species of Dacini, Bactrocera cucurbitae (Coquillett) and Dacus ciliatus Loew, infest 16 host plant species belonging to the family Cucurbitaceae from sea level to 1,600 m. These two species represent two primary pests of this plant family on the island. Melon fly, Bactrocera cucurbitae, and Ethiopian fruit fly, D. ciliatus, larval development was studied at four different constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, and 30 degrees C) with three host plants (cucumber, pumpkin, and squash). Adult life histories of these two species were studied at 25 degrees C with the three host plants. The results led to the conclusion that B. cucurbitae had a faster egg incubation time. Its preimaginal instars developed significantly faster than those of D. ciliatus independent of temperature. B. cucurbitae and D. ciliatus had similar mean preoviposition duration and egg hatching success. Fecundity was significantly higher for the melon fly on cucumber and pumpkin and lower on squash. Two distinctly different life- history patterns were evident: (1) later onset of reproduction, longer oviposition time, longer life span, and higher fecundity (B. cucurbitae) and (2) early reproduction, lower oviposition time, shorter life span, and lower fecundity (D. ciliatus). These results are useful for improving laboratory-rearing methods and for building simulation models to predict Dacini population dynamics.     

Development of internal COI primers to improve and extend barcoding of fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae: Dacini)

Accurate species-level identifications underpin many aspects of basic and applied biology;however,identifications can be hampered by a lack of discriminating morphological characters,taxonomic expertise or time.Molecular approaches,such as DNA"barcoding"of the cytochrome c oxidase(COI)gene,are argued to overcome these issues.However,nuclear encoding of mitochondrial genes(numts)and poor amplification success of suboptimally preserved specimens can lead to erroneous identifications.One insect group for which these molecular and morphological problems are significant are the dacine fruit flies(Diptera:Tephritidae:Dacini).We addressed these issues associated with COI barcoding in the dacines by first assessing several"universal"COI primers against public mitochondrial genome and numt sequences for dacine taxa.We then modified a set of four primers that more closely matched true dacine COI sequence and amplified two overlapping portions of the COI barcode region.Our new primers were tested alongside universal primers on a selection of dacine species,including both fresh preserved and decades-old dry specimens.Additionally,Bactrocera tiyoni mitochondrial and nuclear genomes were compared to identify putative numts.Four numt clades were identified,three of which were amplified using existing universal primers.In contrast,our new primers preferentially amplified the"true"mitochondrial COI barcode in all dacine species tested.The new primers also successfully amplified partial barcodes from dry specimens for which full length barcodes were unobtainable.Thus we recommend these new primers be incorporated into the suites of primers used by diagnosticians and quarantine labs for the accurate identification of dacine species.     

Sex-specific glands in tephritid fruit flies of the genera Anastrepha,Ceratitis, Dacus and Rhagoletis (Diptera : Tephritidae)

The objectives of this work were to systematically examine males and females of tephritid fruit flies from the genera Anastrepha, Ceratitis, Dacus and Rhagoletis for the presence of possible sex pheromone glands, and to determine whether particular glands may be characteristic of certain genera. Flies from the 4 genera were examined from paraffin embedded histological sections. Pleural epidermal glands and sexually dimorphic, enlarged salivary glands were found in males, but not in females, of 7 species of Anastrepha and in 2 species of Ceratitis. Females of these species do not develop the pleural epidermal glands at all, and although they have salivary glands, the glands do not have the large glandular mass of tissue that is found in males. The pleural glands were similar in all the males, and consisted of a single layer of enlarged, columnar epidermal cells in the pleural region of abdominal segments 3, 4 and 5. The salivary glands of males were divided into 4 types based upon structure.Pleural glands and enlarged salivary glands were searched for, but were not found, in 2 species of Rhagoletis and in 3 species of Dacus. Anal glands, opening externally on the last segment, were confirmed in C. capitata, and were found in C. rosa. Anal glands were not found in any of the other species. A diverticulum from the rectum, the rectal pouch or gland, was confirmed in D. dorsalis, D. cucurbitae and D. tryoni as already published, but this gland was not found in species of other genera. Growth of the pleural glands and salivary glands in males of A. ludens, A. fraterculus and C. capitata was described as a function of age of flies.     

Biocontrol potential of the entomopathogenic nematodes Heterorhabditis bacteriophora and Steinernema carpocapsae on cucurbit fly,Dacus ciliatus (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Entomopathogenic nematodes (EPNs) from the families Steinernematidae and Hererorhabditidae are considered excellent biological control agents against many insects that damage the roots of crops. In a regional survey, native EPNs were isolated, and laboratory and greenhouse experiments were conducted to determine the infectivity of EPNs against the cucurbit fly, Dacus ciliatus Loew (Diptera: Tephritidae). Preliminary experiments showed high virulence by a native strain of Heterorhabditis bacteriophora Poinar (Rhabditida: Heterorhabditidae) and a commercial strain of Steinernema carpocapsae Weiser (Rhabditida: Steinernematidae). These two strains were employed for further analysis while another native species, Steinernema feltiae, was excluded due to low virulence. In laboratory experiments, larvae and adult flies were susceptible to nematode infection, but both nematode species induced low mortality on pupae. S. carpocapsae had a significantly lower LC₅₀ value against larvae than H. bacteriophora in filter paper assays. Both species of EPNs were effective against adult flies but S. carpocapsae caused higher adult mortality. When EPN species were applied to naturally infested fruit (150 and 300 IJs/cm²), the mortality rates of D. ciliatus larvae were 28% for S. carpocapsae and 12% for H. bacteriophora. Both EPN strains successfully reproduced and emerged from larvae of D. ciliates. In a greenhouse experiment, H. bacteriophora and S. carpocapsae had similar effects on fly larvae. Higher rates of larval mortality were observed in sandy loam and sand soils than in clay loam. The efficacy of S. carpocapsae and H. bacteriophora was higher at 25 and 30°C than at 19°C. The results indicated that S. carpocapsae had the best potential as a biocontrol agent of D. ciliatus, based on its higher virulence and better ability to locate the fly larvae within infected fruits.     

A review of relationships between interspecific competition and invasions in fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Abstract.  1. A number of invasions in the family Tephritidae (fruit flies) have been observed worldwide despite quarantine procedures. In this review, the potential importance of interspecific competition and competitive displacement among different tephritid species is evaluated in the context of recent invasions.
2. Where polyphagous tephritid species have been introduced in areas already occupied by a polyphagous tephritid, interspecific competition has resulted in a decrease in number and niche shift of the pre-established species. No reciprocal invasions have been observed.
3. The data on tephritid invasions seem to support a hierarchical mode of competition; however, complete exclusion usually did not occur. Indeed, tephritid distribution and abundance are markedly structured by various abiotic (mostly climatic) and biotic (host plants) factors.
4. The primary determinant of competitive interactions in near-optimal conditions, such as lowlands with abundant fruit plantations, is probably the life-history strategy. The r – K gradient could be used as a predictor of potential invaders, because K traits (such as large adult size) may favour both exploitation and interference competition.
5. For future research, a better understanding of competition mechanisms seems essential. Different species competing in the same area should be compared with respect to: (i) demographic parameters, (ii) the outcome of experimental co-infestations on the same fruit, and (iii) behavioural and chemical interference mechanisms.     

基于Maxent和GARP模型的日本双棘长蠹在中国的潜在地理分布分析

【目的】日本双棘长蠹Sinoxylon japonicum是一种重要的林木蛀干害虫。该虫自1981年首次报道于云南昆明以来,先后在中国的10多个省市被发现。近年来该害虫在北京、天津和河北等地对国槐Sophora japonica的危害日趋严重。【方法】在本研究中,作者按时间顺序梳理了日本双棘长蠹在中国的分布记录,根据日本双棘长蠹已有分布记录及其主要寄主植物国槐在我国的种植区域采用了Maxent和GARP两种生态位模型对日本双棘长蠹的潜在地理分布进行分析。【结果】日本双棘长蠹在中国南方地区呈零星分布,而在中国北方地区较为集中。分布记录的报道时间呈现出由南向北和自东向西的局势,推测这种分布格局是由于其寄主植物所导致的：中国北方地区危害严重可能与国槐在中国北方的集中种植有关,寄主树苗在不同地区间的调运是其种群扩散主要原因。基于生态位模拟的结果显示日本双棘长蠹在中国具有较大的适宜生态空间,潜在地理分布范围较广,从北到南其适生区主要有：辽宁西部、北京、天津、宁夏、河北、山西南部、山东、陕西、江苏、安徽、湖北、重庆、浙江、江西、湖南以及四川和贵州西北部。【结论】这些地区间的树苗转运需要做好检验检疫工作,以防止日本双棘长蠹的扩散。     

The current and future potential geographical distribution of the oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae)

The oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel), is a major pest throughout South East Asia and in a number of Pacific Islands. As a result of their widespread distribution, pest status, invasive ability and potential impact on market access, B. dorsalis and many other fruit fly species are considered major threats to many countries. CLIMEX was used to model the potential global distribution of B. dorsalis under current and future climate scenarios. Under current climatic conditions, its projected potential distribution includes much of the tropics and subtropics and extends into warm temperate areas such as southern Mediterranean Europe. The model projects optimal climatic conditions for B. dorsalis in the south-eastern USA, where the principle range-limiting factor is likely to be cold stress. As a result of climate change, the potential global range for B. dorsalis is projected to extend further polewards as cold stress boundaries recede. However, the potential range contracts in areas where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially. The significant increases in the potential distribution of B. dorsalis projected under the climate change scenarios suggest that the World Trade Organization should allow biosecurity authorities to consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. One of the most significant areas of uncertainty in climate change concerns the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results are provided that span the range of standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios. The impact on the projected distribution of B. dorsalis is striking, but affects the relative abundance of the fly within the total suitable range more than the total area of climatically suitable habitat.