Modeling the date of leaf appearance in low-arctic tundra

One of the reported changes of arctic ecosystems in response to warming climate is the advance of the leaf appearance in spring. Such phenological changes play a role in the structural changes within tundra ecosystem communities. Recently, we developed a model that estimates the leaf appearance date for deciduous trees in taiga. We apply this model to the whole low-arctic tundra, and we compare the simulated green-up dates with the green-up dates obtained from satellite observations and to in situ measurements of deciduous shrub leaf appearance. The model, although calibrated for taiga, performs remarkably well in tundra, with root mean square error ranging between 4 and 8 days for most of the tundra region, the same order as in taiga regions. The results seem to indicate that air temperature is the main factor controlling spring leaf phenology in tundra, just as in taiga, although these results do not permit us to reject soil temperature as the main trigger for leaf appearance in tundra. Because our model performs in tundra as well as in taiga, it can be used across the ecotone, and during a northward migration of the species from the taiga to the low-arctic region. The leaf appearance model and the satellite observations reveal that leaf appearance has tended to occur earlier by approximately 10 days both in Alaska since 1975, and in west Siberian tundra since 1965.     

中国东部温带植被生长季节的空间外推估计

利用地面植物物候和遥感归一化差值植被指数（NDVI）数据,以及一种物候-遥感外推方法,实现植被生长季节从少数站点到较多站点的空间外推。结果表明：（1）在1982～1993年期间,中国东部温带地区植被生长季节多年平均起讫日期的空间格局与春季和秋季平均气温的空间格局相关显著;（2）在不同纬度带和整个研究区域,植被生长季节结束日期呈显著推迟的趋势,而开始日期则呈不显著提前的趋势,这与欧洲和北美地区植被生长季节开始日期显著提前而结束日期不显著推迟的变化趋势完全不同;（3）北部纬度带的植被生长季节平均每年延长1．4～3．6d,全区的植被生长季节平均每年延长1．4d,与同期北半球和欧亚大陆植被生长季节延长的趋势数值相近;（4）植被生长季节结束日期的显著推迟与晚春至夏季的区域性降温有关,而植被生长季节开始日期的不显著提前则与晚冬至春季气温趋势的不稳定变化有关;（5）在年际变化方面,植被生长季节开始和结束日期分别与2～4月份平均气温和5～6月份平均气温呈负相关关系。     

Spatial and temporal variation of phenological growing season and climate change impacts in temperate eastern China

Using phenological and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from 1982 to 1993 at seven sample stations in temperate eastern China, we calculated the cumulative frequency of leaf unfolding and leaf coloration dates for deciduous species every 5 days throughout the study period. Then, we determined the growing season beginning and end dates by computing times when 50% of the species had undergone leaf unfolding and leaf coloration for each station year. Next, we used these beginning and end dates of the growing season as time markers to determine corresponding threshold NDVI values on NDVI curves for the pixels overlaying phenological stations. Based on a cluster analysis, we determined extrapolation areas for each phenological station in every year, and then implemented the spatial extrapolation of growing season parameters from the seven sample stations to all possible meteorological stations in the study area. Results show that spatial patterns of growing season beginning and end dates correlate significantly with spatial patterns of mean air temperatures in spring and autumn, respectively. Contrasting with results from similar studies in Europe and North America, our study suggests that there is a significant delay in leaf coloration dates, along with a less pronounced advance of leaf unfolding dates in different latitudinal zones and the whole area from 1982 to 1993. The growing season has been extended by 1.4–3.6 days per year in the northern zones and by 1.4 days per year across the entire study area on average. The apparent delay in growing season end dates is associated with regional cooling from late spring to summer, while the insignificant advancement in beginning dates corresponds to inconsistent temperature trend changes from late winter to spring. On an interannual basis, growing season beginning and end dates correlate negatively with mean air temperatures from February to April and from May to June, respectively.     

Phytophenological trends in Switzerland

Nation-wide phenological observations have been made in Switzerland since 1951. In addition to these observation programmes, there are two very long phenological series in Switzerland: leaf bud burst of horse-chestnut trees has been observed in Geneva since 1808 and full flowering of cherry trees in Liestal since 1894. In addition to the presentation of these two long phenological series, trends for 896 phenological time series have been calculated with national data from 1951 to 1998. The earlier bud burst of horse-chestnut trees in Geneva can be attributed mainly to the city effect (warmth island). This phenomenon was not observed with the cherry tree flowering in Liestal. A clear trend towards earlier appearance dates in spring and a weak tendency towards later appearance dates in autumn could be shown with data from the national observation network. It must be noted that different phenophases and plant species react differently to various environmental influences. Received: 25 October 2000 / Revised: 9 May 2001 / Accepted: 4 June 2001     

Interactive climate factors restrict future increases in spring productivity of temperate and boreal trees

Climate warming is currently advancing spring leaf‐out of temperate and boreal trees, enhancing net primary productivity (NPP) of forests. However, it remains unclear whether this trend will continue, preventing for accurate projections of ecosystem functioning and climate feedbacks. Several ecophysiological mechanisms have been proposed to regulate the timing of leaf emergence in response to changing environmental cues, but the relative importance of those mechanisms remains unclear. Here, we use 727,401 direct phenological observations of common European forest trees to examine the dominant controls on leaf‐out. Using the emerging mechanisms, we forecast future trajectories of spring arrival and evaluate the consequences for forest carbon dynamics. By representing hypothesized relationships with autumn temperature, winter chilling, and the timing of spring onset, we accurately predicted reductions in the advance of leaf‐out. There was a strong consensus between our empirical model and existing process‐based models, revealing that the advance in leaf‐out will not exceed 2 weeks over the rest of the century. We further estimate that, under a ‘business‐as‐usual’ climate scenario, earlier spring arrival will enhance NPP of temperate and boreal forests by ~0.2 Gt per year at the end of the century. In contrast, previous estimates based on a simple degree‐day model range around 0.8 Gt. As such, the expected NPP is drastically reduced in our updated model relative to previous estimates—by a total of ~25 Gt over the rest of the century. These findings reveal important environmental constraints on the productivity of broad‐leaved deciduous trees and highlight that shifting spring phenology is unlikely to slow the rate of warming by offsetting anthropogenic carbon emissions.     

A reversal of the shift towards earlier spring phenology in several Mediterranean reptiles and amphibians during the 1998–2013 warming slowdown

Herps, especially amphibians, are particularly susceptible to climate change, as temperature tightly controls many parameters of their biological cycle—above all, their phenology. The timing of herps’ activity or migration period—in particular the dates of their first appearance in spring and first breeding—and the shift to earlier dates in response to warming since the last quarter of the 20^th century has often been described up to now as a nearly monotonic trend towards earlier phenological events. In this study, we used citizen science data opportunistically collected on reptiles and amphibians in the northern Mediterranean basin over a period of 32 years to explore temporal variations in herp phenology. For 17 common species, we measured shifts in the date of the species’ first spring appearance—which may be the result of current changes in climate—and regressed the first appearance date against temperatures and precipitations. Our results confirmed the expected overall trend towards earlier first spring appearances from 1983 to 1997, and show that the first appearance date of both reptiles and amphibians fits well with the temperature in late winter. However, the trend towards earlier dates was stopped or even reversed in most species between 1998 and 2013. We interpret this reversal as a response to cooling related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the late winter and early spring. During the positive NAO episodes, for certain species only (mainly amphibians), the effect of a warm weather, which tends to advance the phenology, seems to be counterbalanced by the adverse effects of the relative dryness.     

Evidences of olive pollination date variations in relation to spring temperature trends

Airborne pollen concentration patterns reflect flowering phenology of a given species, and it may be a sensitive regional indicator in climate change studies. This paper presents the relationship between a strategic biological event, such as olive flowering, and the air temperature trend, registered over a large scale (1982–2007) in the Umbria region. The aim of the study was to determine relationships between phenological behaviour (flowering) of olive trees and the air temperature trend (1982–2007) in the Umbria region. The phenological data on flowering phase were registered indirectly through an aerobiological monitoring technique. The obtained results showed a strong relationship between phenology and thermal trend. This characteristic was confirmed from results of correlations between temperature (mean temperature from 1st March) and flowering dates, especially that of full flowering (r = −0.9297). Moreover, the results showed an advance trend of 6, 8 and 10 days, respectively of start, full and end of flowering dates. The advance of the recorded flowering time in this period is to ascribe mainly to the increase of mean temperature and above all to that registered in months of May and June.     

Comparative phylogeography and demographic history of the wood lemming (Myopus schisticolor): implications for late Quaternary history of the taiga species in Eurasia

The association between demographic history, genealogy and geographical distribution of mitochondrial DNA cytochrome b haplotypes was studied in the wood lemming (Myopus schisticolor), a species that is closely associated with the boreal forest of the Eurasian taiga zone from Scandinavia to the Pacific coast. Except for a major phylogeographic discontinuity (0.9% nucleotide divergence) in southeastern Siberia, only shallow regional genetic structure was detected across northern Eurasia. Genetic signs of demographic expansions imply that successive range contractions and expansions on different spatial scales represented the primary historical events that shaped geographical patterns of genetic variation. Comparison of phylogeographic structure across a taxonomically diverse array of other species that are ecologically associated with the taiga forest revealed similar patterns and identified two general aspects. First, the major south-north phylogeographic discontinuity observed in five out of six species studied in southeastern Siberia and the Far East implies vicariant separation in two different refugial areas. The limited distribution range of the southeastern lineages provides no evidence of the importance of the putative southeastern refugial area for postglacial colonization of northern Eurasia by boreal forest species. Second, the lack of phylogeographic structure associated with significant reciprocal monophyly and genetic signatures of demographic expansion in all nine boreal forest animal species studied to date across most of northern Eurasia imply contraction of each species to a single refugial area during the late Pleistocene followed by range expansion on a continental scale. Similar phylogeographic patterns observed in this taxonomically diverse set of organisms with different life histories and dispersal potentials reflect the historical dynamics of their shared environment, the taiga forest in northern Eurasia.     

The greening and browning of Alaska based on 1982–2003 satellite data

Aim To examine the trends of 1982–2003 satellite‐derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values at several spatial scales within tundra and boreal forest areas of Alaska. Location Arctic and subarctic Alaska. Methods Annual maximum NDVI data from the twice monthly Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) NDVI 1982–2003 data set with 64‐km² pixels were extracted from a spatial hierarchy including three large regions: ecoregion polygons within regions, ecozone polygons within boreal ecoregions and 100‐km climate station buffers. The 1982–2003 trends of mean annual maximum NDVI values within each area, and within individual pixels, were computed using simple linear regression. The relationship between NDVI and temperature and precipitation was investigated within climate station buffers. Results At the largest spatial scale of polar, boreal and maritime regions, the strongest trend was a negative trend in NDVI within the boreal region. At a finer scale of ecoregion polygons, there was a strong positive NDVI trend in cold arctic tundra areas, and a strong negative trend in interior boreal forest areas. Within boreal ecozone polygons, the weakest negative trends were from areas with a maritime climate or colder mountainous ecozones, while the strongest negative trends were from warmer basin ecozones. The trends from climate station buffers were similar to ecoregion trends, with no significant trends from Bering tundra buffers, significant increasing trends among arctic tundra buffers and significant decreasing trends among interior boreal forest buffers. The interannual variability of NDVI among the arctic tundra buffers was related to the previous summer warmth index. The spatial pattern of increasing tundra NDVI at the pixel level was related to the west‐to‐east spatial pattern in changing climate across arctic Alaska. There was no significant relationship between interannual NDVI and precipitation or temperature among the boreal forest buffers. The decreasing NDVI trend in interior boreal forests may be due to several factors including increased insect/disease infestations, reduced photosynthesis and a change in root/leaf carbon allocation in response to warmer and drier growing season climate. Main conclusions There was a contrast in trends of 1982–2003 annual maximum NDVI, with cold arctic tundra significantly increasing in NDVI and relatively warm and dry interior boreal forest areas consistently decreasing in NDVI. The annual maximum NDVI from arctic tundra areas was strongly related to a summer warmth index, while there were no significant relationships in boreal areas between annual maximum NDVI and precipitation or temperature. Annual maximum NDVI was not related to spring NDVI in either arctic tundra or boreal buffers.     

Large-scale plant light-use efficiency inferred from the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2

We combined atmospheric CO₂ measurements, satellite observations, and an atmospheric transport model in an inverse modeling framework to infer a key property of vegetation physiology, the light-use efficiency (LUE) of net primary production, for large geographic regions. We find the highest LUE in boreal regions and in the northern hemisphere tropics. Within boreal zones, Eurasian LUE is higher than North American LUE and has a distinctly different seasonal profile. This longitudinal asymmetry is consistent with ecological differences expected from the much greater cover of deciduous vegetation in boreal Eurasia caused by the vast Siberian forests of the deciduous conifer, Larch. Inferred LUE of the northern hemisphere tropics is also high and displays a seasonal profile consistent with variations of both cloud cover and C₄ vegetation activity.     

A new seasonal‐deciduous spring phenology submodel in the Community Land Model 4.5: impacts on carbon and water cycling under future climate scenarios

A spring phenology model that combines photoperiod with accumulated heating and chilling to predict spring leaf‐out dates is optimized using PhenoCam observations and coupled into the Community Land Model (CLM) 4.5. In head‐to‐head comparison (using satellite data from 2003 to 2013 for validation) for model grid cells over the Northern Hemisphere deciduous broadleaf forests (5.5 million km²), we found that the revised model substantially outperformed the standard CLM seasonal‐deciduous spring phenology submodel at both coarse (0.9 × 1.25°) and fine (1 km) scales. The revised model also does a better job of representing recent (decadal) phenological trends observed globally by MODIS, as well as long‐term trends (1950–2014) in the PEP725 European phenology dataset. Moreover, forward model runs suggested a stronger advancement (up to 11 days) of spring leaf‐out by the end of the 21st century for the revised model. Trends toward earlier advancement are predicted for deciduous forests across the whole Northern Hemisphere boreal and temperate deciduous forest region for the revised model, whereas the standard model predicts earlier leaf‐out in colder regions, but later leaf‐out in warmer regions, and no trend globally. The earlier spring leaf‐out predicted by the revised model resulted in enhanced gross primary production (up to 0.6 Pg C yr^?1) and evapotranspiration (up to 24 mm yr^?1) when results were integrated across the study region. These results suggest that the standard seasonal‐deciduous submodel in CLM should be reconsidered, otherwise substantial errors in predictions of key land–atmosphere interactions and feedbacks may result.     

Leaf phenology in 22 North American tree species during the 21st century

Recent shifts in phenology are the best documented biological response to current anthropogenic climate change, yet remain poorly understood from a functional point of view. Prevailing analyses are phenomenological and approximate, only correlating temperature records to imprecise records of phenological events. To advance our understanding of phenological responses to climate change, we developed, calibrated, and validated process-based models of leaf unfolding for 22 North American tree species. Using daily meteorological data predicted by two scenarios (A2: +3.2 °C and B2: +1 °C) from the HadCM3 GCM, we predicted and compared range-wide shifts of leaf unfolding in the 20th and 21st centuries for each species. Model predictions suggest that climate change will affect leaf phenology in almost all species studied, with an average advancement during the 21st century of 5.0 days in the A2 scenario and 9.2 days in the B2 scenario. Our model also suggests that lack of sufficient chilling temperatures to break bud dormancy will decrease the rate of advancement in leaf unfolding date during the 21st century for many species. Some temperate species may even have years with abnormal budburst due to insufficient chilling. Species fell into two groups based on their sensitivity to climate change: (1) species that consistently had a greater advance in their leaf unfolding date with increasing latitude and (2) species in which the advance in leaf unfolding differed from the center to the northern vs. southern margins of their range. At the interspecific level, we predicted that early-leafing species tended to show a greater advance in leaf unfolding date than late-leafing species; and that species with larger ranges tend to show stronger phenological changes. These predicted changes in phenology have significant implications for the frost susceptibility of species, their interspecific relationships, and their distributional shifts.     

A generalized, bioclimatic index to predict foliar phenology in response to climate

The phenological state of vegetation significantly affects exchanges of heat, mass, and momentum between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere. Although current patterns can be estimated from satellites, we lack the ability to predict future trends in response to climate change. We searched the literature for a common set of variables that might be combined into an index to quantify the greenness of vegetation throughout the year. We selected as variables: daylength (photoperiod), evaporative demand (vapor pressure deficit), and suboptimal (minimum) temperatures. For each variable we set threshold limits, within which the relative phenological performance of the vegetation was assumed to vary from inactive (0) to unconstrained (1). A combined Growing Season Index (GSI) was derived as the product of the three indices. Ten‐day mean GSI values for nine widely dispersed ecosystems showed good agreement (r>0.8) with the satellite‐derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). We also tested the model at a temperate deciduous forest by comparing model estimates with average field observations of leaf flush and leaf coloration. The mean absolute error of predictions at this site was 3 days for average leaf flush dates and 2 days for leaf coloration dates. Finally, we used this model to produce a global map that distinguishes major differences in regional phenological controls. The model appears sufficiently robust to reconstruct historical variation as well as to forecast future phenological responses to changing climatic conditions.     

Regional unified model‐based leaf unfolding prediction from 1960 to 2009 across northern China

Using first leaf unfolding data of Salix matsudana, Populus simonii, Ulmus pumila, and Prunus armeniaca, and daily mean temperature data during the 1981–2005 period at 136 stations in northern China, we fitted unified forcing and chilling phenology models and selected optimum models for each species at each station. Then, we examined performances of each optimum local species‐specific model in predicting leaf unfolding dates at all external stations within the corresponding climate region and selected 16 local species‐specific models with maximum effective predictions as the regional unified models in different climate regions. Furthermore, we validated the regional unified models using leaf unfolding and daily mean temperature data beyond the time period of model fitting. Finally, we substituted gridded daily mean temperature data into the regional unified models, and reconstructed spatial patterns of leaf unfolding dates of the four tree species across northern China during 1960–2009. At local scales, the unified forcing model shows higher simulation efficiency at 83% of data sets, whereas the unified chilling model indicates higher simulation efficiency at 17% of data sets. Thus, winter temperature increase so far has not yet significantly influenced dormancy and consequent leaf development of deciduous trees in most parts of northern China. Spatial and temporal validation confirmed capability and reliability of regional unified species‐specific models in predicting leaf unfolding dates in northern China. Reconstructed leaf unfolding dates of the four tree species show significant advancements by 1.4–1.6 days per decade during 1960–2009 across northern China, which are stronger for the earlier than the later leaf unfolding species. Our findings suggest that the principal characteristics of plant phenology and phenological responses to climate change at regional scales can be captured by phenological and climatic data sets at a few representative locations.     

近20年青藏高原东北部禾本科牧草生育期变化特征

利用1988—2010年青藏高原东北部地区5个站点牧草生育期地面观测数据,分析了近20年代表性牧草返青、开花、黄枯期及生长季的变化趋势,并通过偏相关分析探讨了气温和降水对牧草生育期的关系。结果表明,近20年青藏高原东北部牧草生育期北部推迟南部提前的特征明显。南部的三江源区域返青、开花与黄枯期总体呈显著提前趋势,其中曲麻莱羊茅返青期提前的倾向率达到-4 d/10 a,开花期为-13 d/10 a,黄枯期达到-9 d/10 a,且均通过0.01的显著性检验水平。北部环青海湖区域的海北西北针茅生育期则表现出一定的推迟趋势。生长季长度北部地区延长,而南部除甘德(垂穗披碱草)外均呈明显缩短趋势。近20 a黄枯期的变化幅度明显大于返青期,使得生长季长度的变化更多地受黄枯期变化的影响。1月和3月气温是影响研究区牧草返青最主要的气候因子,气温增高返青提前。开花期南北差异明显,北部与同期气温呈明显负相关关系,南部则主要与开花前2—3个月的降水量密切相关,降水增多大部地区开花期提前。此外,降水也是各地牧草黄枯的主要影响因子。     

Variability and evolution of global land surface phenology over the past three decades (1982–2012)

Monitoring land surface phenology (LSP) is important for understanding both the responses and feedbacks of ecosystems to the climate system, and for representing these accurately in terrestrial biosphere models. Moreover, by shedding light on phenological trends at a variety of scales, LSP provides the potential to fill the gap between traditional phenological (field) observations and the large‐scale view of global models. In this study, we review and evaluate the variability and evolution of satellite‐derived growing season length (GSL) globally and over the past three decades. We used the longest continuous record of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data available to date at global scale to derive LSP metrics consistently over all vegetated land areas and for the period 1982–2012. We tested GSL, start‐ and end‐of‐season metrics (SOS and EOS, respectively) for linear trends as well as for significant trend shifts over the study period. We evaluated trends using global environmental stratification information in place of commonly used land cover maps to avoid circular findings. Our results confirmed an average lengthening of the growing season globally during 1982–2012 – averaging 0.22–0.34 days yr^?1, but with spatially heterogeneous trends. About 13–19% of global land areas displayed significant GSL change, and over 30% of trends occurred in the boreal/alpine biome of the Northern Hemisphere, which showed diverging GSL evolution over the past three decades. Within this biome, the ‘Cold and Mesic’ environmental zone appeared as an LSP change hotspot. We also examined the relative contribution of SOS and EOS to the overall changes, finding that EOS trends were generally stronger and more prevalent than SOS trends. These findings constitute a step towards the identification of large‐scale phenological drivers of vegetated land surfaces, necessary for improving phenological representation in terrestrial biosphere models.     

Patterns of formation of island fauna of butterflies (Lepidoptera, Diurna) at the northern forest boundary in the region of pleistocene continental glaciation (by the example of White Sea islands)

Patterns of formation of island butterfly fauna at the northern forest boundary in the region of Valdai inland ice were analyzed by the example of White Sea islands. The ecotone effect, typical for northernmost taiga and forest-tundra and introducing the transitional butterfly fauna in near-tundra forest between the boreal and hypoarctic zones, was not observed on the White Sea islands. Island isolation provided for the absence of some Arctic species, entering near-tundra forest from the North, in the island fauna. Island butterfly faunas represent poor variants of the northern taiga fauna lacking some polyzonal and temperate species and having a reduced set of Arctic boreal species.     

Using a phenological network to assess weather influences on first appearance of butterflies in the Netherlands

Phenological responses of butterflies to temperature have been demonstrated in several European countries by using data from standardized butterfly monitoring schemes. Recently, phenological networks have enabled volunteers to record phenological observations at project websites. In this study, the quality of the first appearance data of butterflies from the Dutch phenological network ‘De Natuurkalender’ was examined and these data were then used to analyze trends in butterfly appearance between 2001 and 2013, the effects of climatic factors on appearance of butterflies as well as the phenological interaction of one butterfly species, Anthocharis cardamines, and its two major host plants. Although phenological networks are relatively unstructured, this study shows that data from De Natuurkalender were highly comparable to more standardized data collected by the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme. No trend in first appearance of any butterfly species was found during the time period 2001–2013. The first appearance dates of most butterflies showed, however, a clear relationship with spring temperature. Higher temperatures, especially in March and April, advanced the first appearance of butterflies. Therefore, with climatic warming in the future, earlier appearance of butterflies is expected. Although climate warming is a potential threat for phenological mismatches between different trophic levels, this study shows a similar temperature response of A. cardamines and its main host plants in the Netherlands. However, as only few phenological interactions between species are examined, further research including rarer monophagous butterfly species and their host plants is needed.     

Trends in phenology of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Betula pubescens</Emphasis> across the boreal zone in Finland

Timing of plant phenophases is a useful biological indicator which shows how nature responds to the variation in climate. Thus, long phenological observation series help to estimate the impact of changing climate on forest plants. We investigated whether phenological patterns of downy birch Betula pubescens respond to warming climate and whether the intensity of the responses varies among phytogeographical zones. We studied data collected by the Finnish National Phenological Network from 30 observation sites across Finland during 1997–2006. The advancement in the timing of the earliest phenophase, bud burst, ranged from 0.7 days/year in southern boreal zone to 1.4 days/year in middle and northern boreal zones. Timing of bud burst was most clearly dependent on mean May temperatures. The intensity of the response to temperature increased from south to north. The advancement of bud burst resulted into a significant lengthening of the growth period by 1.2–1.6 days per year in northern and middle boreal zones, respectively, whereas the lengthening was not significant in the southern boreal zone. No trend was observed in the timing of autumn phenophases.     

西安4种落叶乔木物候期对气候变化的响应

以西安1979—2018年的气候资料和植物物候观测资料为基础,采用分段回归和趋势倾向率等方法,分析了毛白杨(Populus tomentosa)、杜梨(Pyrus betulifolia)、七叶树(Aesculus chinensis)和灯台树(Bothrocaryum controversum)4种落叶乔木展叶盛期和叶全变色期的生长趋势,使用偏相关分析探讨了气温、降水和日照时数与物候期的关系并通过偏最小二乘回归(Partial Least Squares, PLS)判断气候变量对物候期的综合影响。结果表明：(1)1979—2018年,4种乔木的生长季长度延长,整体表现为春季物候期提前,秋季物候期推迟;(2)展叶盛期物候指标与叶全变色期物候指标,转折均发生在1982年;转折后,物候特征变化显著,春季物候的提前速率和秋季物候的推迟速率加快,展叶盛期平均提前3.8d/10a,叶全变色期平均推迟4.7d/10a;(3)展叶盛期与春季气温表现为极显著负相关,叶变色期与秋季气温表现为显著正相关;降水对植物物候的影响不显著;春季物候与日照时数呈现极显著负相关关系,秋季物候期与日照时数呈不显著正相关...