Cryptic phenology in plants: Case studies,implications, and recommendations

Plant phenology—the timing of cyclic or recurrent biological events in plants—offers insight into the ecology, evolution, and seasonality of plant‐mediated ecosystem processes. Traditionally studied phenologies are readily apparent, such as flowering events, germination timing, and season‐initiating budbreak. However, a broad range of phenologies that are fundamental to the ecology and evolution of plants, and to global biogeochemical cycles and climate change predictions, have been neglected because they are “cryptic”—that is, hidden from view (e.g., root production) or difficult to distinguish and interpret based on common measurements at typical scales of examination (e.g., leaf turnover in evergreen forests). We illustrate how capturing cryptic phenology can advance scientific understanding with two case studies: wood phenology in a deciduous forest of the northeastern USA and leaf phenology in tropical evergreen forests of Amazonia. Drawing on these case studies and other literature, we argue that conceptualizing and characterizing cryptic plant phenology is needed for understanding and accurate prediction at many scales from organisms to ecosystems. We recommend avenues of empirical and modeling research to accelerate discovery of cryptic phenological patterns, to understand their causes and consequences, and to represent these processes in terrestrial biosphere models.     

Demography of an endangered endemic rupicolous cactus

The snow cover extent is an important factor for the structure and composition of arctic and alpine tundra communities. Over the last few decades, snowmelt in many arctic and alpine regions has advanced, causing the growing season to start earlier and last longer. In a field experiment in subarctic tundra in Interior Alaska, I manipulated the timing of snowmelt and measured the response in mortality, phenology, growth, and reproduction of the eight dominant plant species. I then tested whether the phenological development of these species was controlled by snowmelt date or by temperature (in particular growing degree days, GDD). In order to expand our understanding of plant sensitivity to snowmelt timing, I explored whether the response patterns can be generalized with regard to the temporal niche of each species. Differences in the phenology between treatments were only found for the first stages of the phenological development (=phenophases). The earlier the temporal niche (i.e., the sooner after snowmelt a species develops) the more its phenology was sensitive to snowmelt. Later phenophases were mostly controlled by GDD, especially in late-developing species. In no species did an earlier snowmelt and a longer growing season directly enhance plant fitness or fecundity, in spite of the changes in the timing of plant development. In conclusion, the temporal niche of a species’ phenological development could be a predictor of its response to snowmelt timing. However, only the first phenophases were susceptible to changes in snowmelt, and no short-term effects on plant fitness were found.     

Butterfly–host plant synchrony determines patterns of host use across years and regions

Variation in the degree of synchrony among host plants and herbivores can disrupt or intensify species interactions, alter the strength of natural selection on traits associated with phenological timing, and drive novel host plant associations. We used field observations from three regions during four seasons to examine how timing of the butterfly herbivore Anthocharis cardamines relative to six host plant species (Arabis hirsuta, Cardamine pratensis, Arabis glabra, Arabidopsis thaliana, Thlaspi caerulescens and Capsella bursa‐pastoris) influenced host species use and the choice of host plant individuals within populations. Butterflies laid a larger fraction of their eggs on species that were closer to the butterfly's preferred stage of development than on other host species. Within host plant populations, butterflies showed a stronger preference for individuals with a late phenology when plants within the population were on average more developed at the time of butterfly flight. Our results suggest that changes in synchrony between herbivores and their host plants are associated with changes in both host species use and the choice of host plant individuals differing in phenology within populations. This is likely to be an important mechanism generating variation in interaction intensities and trait selection in the wild, and therefore also relevant for understanding how anthropogenic induced changes, such as global warming, will influence natural communities.     

Forecasting phenology under global warming

As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953–2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species'' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology.     

Phenology, ontogeny and the effects of climate change on the timing of species interactions

Climate change is altering the phenology of many species and the timing of their interactions with other species, but the impacts of these phenological shifts on species interactions remain unclear. Classical approaches to the study of phenology have typically documented changes in the timing of single life-history events, while phenological shifts affect many interactions over entire life histories. In this study, we suggest an approach that integrates the phenology and ontogeny of species interactions with a fitness landscape to provide a common mechanistic framework for investigating phenological shifts. We suggest that this ontogeny–phenology landscape provides a flexible method to document changes in the relative phenologies of interacting species, examine the causes of these phenological shifts, and estimate their consequences for interacting species.
Ecology Letters (2010) 13: 1–10     

The phenology of growth and reproduction in plants

The study of phenological aspects of plants involves the observation, recording and interpretation of the timing of their life history events. This review considers the phenology of leafing, flowering and fruit production in a range of species and communities. The selective forces (both abiotic and biotic) that influence the timing of these events are discussed. Within the limits imposed by phylogenetic constraints, the phenological patterns (timing, frequency, duration, degree of synchrony, etc.) of each phase are probably the result of a compromise between a variety of selective pressures, such as seasonal climatic changes, resource availability, and the presence of pollinators, predators and seed dispersers. Many studies on flowering times stress the role of interactions between plant species which share pollinators or predators. The timing of fruiting plays a key role in controlling the abundance and variety of obligate frugivores in many tropical communities. The importance of long-term recording is stressed, particularly in species which fruit irregularly. An understanding of the phenology of plants is crucial to the understanding of community function and diversity.     

Implications of a temperature increase for host plant range: predictions for a butterfly

Although changes in phenology and species associations are relatively well‐documented responses to global warming, the potential interactions between these phenomena are less well understood. In this study, we investigate the interactions between temperature, phenology (in terms of seasonal timing of larval growth) and host plant use in the polyphagous butterfly Polygonia c‐album. We found that the hierarchy of larval performance on three natural host plants was not modified by a temperature increase as such. However, larval performance on each host plant and temperature treatment was affected by rearing season. Even though larvae performed better at the higher temperature regardless of the time of the rearing, relative differences between host plants changed with the season. For larvae reared late in the season, performance was always better on the herbaceous plant than on the woody plants. In this species, it is likely that a prolonged warming will lead to a shift from univoltinism to bivoltinism. The demonstrated interaction between host plant suitability and season means that such a shift is likely to lead to a shift in selective regime, favoring specialization on the herbaceous host. Based on our result, we suggest that host range evolution in response to temperature increase would in this species be highly contingent on whether the population undergoes a predicted shift from one to two generations. We discuss the effect of global warming on species associations and the outcome of asynchrony in rates of phenological change.     

Contrasting effects of warming and increased snowfall on Arctic tundra plant phenology over the past two decades

Recent changes in climate have led to significant shifts in phenology, with many studies demonstrating advanced phenology in response to warming temperatures. The rate of temperature change is especially high in the Arctic, but this is also where we have relatively little data on phenological changes and the processes driving these changes. In order to understand how Arctic plant species are likely to respond to future changes in climate, we monitored flowering phenology in response to both experimental and ambient warming for four widespread species in two habitat types over 21 years. We additionally used long‐term environmental records to disentangle the effects of temperature increase and changes in snowmelt date on phenological patterns. While flowering occurred earlier in response to experimental warming, plants in unmanipulated plots showed no change or a delay in flowering over the 21‐year period, despite more than 1 °C of ambient warming during that time. This counterintuitive result was likely due to significantly delayed snowmelt over the study period (0.05–0.2 days/yr) due to increased winter snowfall. The timing of snowmelt was a strong driver of flowering phenology for all species – especially for early‐flowering species – while spring temperature was significantly related to flowering time only for later‐flowering species. Despite significantly delayed flowering phenology, the timing of seed maturation showed no significant change over time, suggesting that warmer temperatures may promote more rapid seed development. The results of this study highlight the importance of understanding the specific environmental cues that drive species’ phenological responses as well as the complex interactions between temperature and precipitation when forecasting phenology over the coming decades. As demonstrated here, the effects of altered snowmelt patterns can counter the effects of warmer temperatures, even to the point of generating phenological responses opposite to those predicted by warming alone.     

利用控制实验研究植物物候对气候变化的响应综述

物候是植物在长期适应环境过程中形成的生长发育节点。长时间地面物候观测数据表明,近50年全球乔木、灌木、草本植物的春季物候期受温度升高、降水与辐射变化等影响,以每10年2 d到10 d的速率提前。但因植物物候响应气候因子的机制仍不清楚,导致对未来气候变化情景下的植物物候变化预测存在较大的不确定性。在此背景下,控制实验成为探究气候因子对植物物候影响机制的重要手段。综述了物候控制实验中不同气候因子（温度、水分、光照等）的控制方法。总结了目前为止控制实验在植物物候对气候因子响应方面得到的重要结论,发现植物春季物候期（展叶、开花等）主要受冷激、驱动温度与光周期的影响,秋季物候期（叶变色和落叶）主要受低温、短日照与水分胁迫的影响。提出未来物候控制实验应重点解决木本植物在秋季进入休眠的时间点确定、低温和短日照对木本植物秋季物候的交互作用量化、草本植物春秋季物候的影响因子识别等科学问题。     

Genetic and physiological bases for phenological responses to current and predicted climates

We are now reaching the stage at which specific genetic factors with known physiological effects can be tied directly and quantitatively to variation in phenology. With such a mechanistic understanding, scientists can better predict phenological responses to novel seasonal climates. Using the widespread model species Arabidopsis thaliana, we explore how variation in different genetic pathways can be linked to phenology and life-history variation across geographical regions and seasons. We show that the expression of phenological traits including flowering depends critically on the growth season, and we outline an integrated life-history approach to phenology in which the timing of later life-history events can be contingent on the environmental cues regulating earlier life stages. As flowering time in many plants is determined by the integration of multiple environmentally sensitive gene pathways, the novel combinations of important seasonal cues in projected future climates will alter how phenology responds to variation in the flowering time gene network with important consequences for plant life history. We discuss how phenology models in other systems—both natural and agricultural—could employ a similar framework to explore the potential contribution of genetic variation to the physiological integration of cues determining phenology.     

全球变化下植物物候研究的关键问题

总结了全球变化下植物物候研究的主要进展,针对该领域国内外的几个热点问题进行了讨论。植物物候研究的重心从以前的野外观测和初步统计分析逐步过渡到以揭示物候周期的调控机制和环境效应为主,研究手段从植物物候对环境变化做出反应的表象描述转移到多尺度、多要素耦合关系的综合分析。随着学科交叉研究的不断深入,植物物候研究从植物个体及居群适应性研究转向植物物候变化对生态系统、气候演变、农业生产乃至人类健康等方面影响的系统评估。并且在该转变过程中出现了几个关键性问题,如不同温度带大气温度与光周期对植物物候期贡献力问题、植物物候变化对气候变暖的非线性响应特征、群落水平上植物物候研究的复杂性、以及农业生态系统中作物物候研究的重要性等。对我国植物物候研究现状和管理体系中亟待解决的问题提出了建议。     

植物物候对重庆主城区热岛效应的响应

为探究植物物候对山地城市内部热岛效应的响应特征,于2016年1月—2017年1月对重庆市主城区80种木本植物进行地面物候观测,同时利用Landsat 8热红外数据反演研究区地表温度,结合同时期地面实测气温,对研究区热岛强度等级进行划分,进而比较城市内部不同热岛强度等级下植物物候变化特征。结果表明,热岛过渡区与热岛区植物展叶期较凉岛区分别提前了5.1 d和8.1 d,初花期分别提前了4.0 d和20.8 d,终花期分别提前了4.8 d和11.6 d,而落叶期分别推迟了8.5 d和18.9 d,即城市内部热岛増温使植物春季物候提前,秋季物候推迟,生长季延长,且物候变化幅度随热岛强度等级增大而增大。不同功能型植物物候对热岛増温的响应存在差异,灌木、常绿植物和引种植物物候比乔木、落叶植物和本土植物更加敏感。本研究在一定程度上填补了我国西南山区物候研究的空缺,可为预测城市植物物候对未来山地城市小气候变化乃至全球气候变暖趋势的响应提供早期预警。     

Plant quality and the presence of beneficiaries govern the larval distribution of the critically endangered Sinai Baton Blue butterfly (Pseudophilotes sinaicus)

The larval distribution of herbivorous insects play an important role in their development and hence future fitness. Here we study larval distribution of the critically endangered Sinai Baton Blue butterfly, Pseudophilotes sinaicus, which feeds exclusively on the buds and flowers of a single host plant, also endangered, the near-endemic Sinai thyme, Thymus decussatus. We studied the larval distribution over 131 plants, recording the size, quality and phenological stage of the plants along with the presence of beneficiaries. Larvae were found on plants with a high number of flowers, a relatively advanced flowering phenology and tending ants. This highlights the importance of the vitality and quality of the host plant to the spatial distribution of the Sinai Baton Blue. Future conservation plans might concentrate on improving the quality and quantity of the host plant in order to increase resources for this narrowly endemic species.     

Advanced phenology of intraguild predators shifts herbivore host plant preference and performance

1. The abundance of insect herbivores is mediated by interactions with higher and lower trophic levels. This research asks (i) how phenological change across trophic levels affects host plant quality and selection for aphids, and (ii) what higher trophic level mechanisms drive aphid abundance. 2. Ligusticum porteri is a perennial host for the sap-feeding aphid Aphis asclepiadis and intraguild mirid predators (chiefly Lygus hesperus) in Colorado. We used long-term observational data to discover that aphids and mirids respond differently to phenological cues. These unique responses can impact aphid abundance through changes to host plant selection and quality. 3. We used behavioural choice assays to assess how advanced mirid phenology influences aphid host plant selection. More alates landed and reproduced on mirid-free control plants relative to host plants with prior mirid feeding. However, this preference did not correlate with aphid performance when we compared aphid relative growth rates between treatments. This suggests that advanced mirid phenology would impact aphid populations more through host plant choice, rather than reductions in host quality. The addition of mirids to experimental aphid colonies also demonstrated reduced aphid colony growth via predation. 4. We measured plant cues involved in host selection and found differences in volatile composition between plants with prior mirid feeding compared to control plants, providing the potential for aphids to detect enemy-free space using volatile cues.     

Host plant growth characteristics as determinants of abundance and phenology in jumping plant-lice on downy willow

1. Salix lapponum host plants at an upper altitudinal site differed significantly in size, structural density, phenology, growth performance, and spatial isolation from those growing at a lower site. 2. Plant differences were paralleled by significant differences in psyllid population density and phenology parameters, with psyllid population density, percentage of catkins occupied, and phenological development relatively lower or retarded at the upper site. Population densities at the upper site, nevertheless, remained high. 3. Plant measurements were good predictors of insect density, often explaining up to 73% of the variance in abundance among plants at a given site. 4. Sets of four plant characters identified by best subsets regression were better predictors of psyllid density and development than single factors, although differences were often not great and the combinations of characters selected by multiple regression sometimes differed from the best single predictors. 5. Best single predictors of psyllid density on catkins were measurements of plant size, particularly height, length, and basal stem diameter. Shoot density and catkin phenology were occasionally important but plant isolation and prior growth performance were less important. 6. By contrast with density, age structure of the psyllid population was predicted best from plant phenological measurements, notably catkin phenology.     

Climate changes affecting biotic interactions,phenology, and reproductive success in a savanna community over a 10-year period

Climatic parameters are able to influence the timing of phenological events affecting the degree of synchrony among plant species, their interactions, and reproductive success. Shrubs of Malpighiaceae family in the Brazilian Tropical Savanna present sequential flowering phenology. We verified variations in climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) over a period of 10 years (2005–2014) and correlated them with the onset of flowering of four of these Malpighiaceae species. Furthermore, we tested whether the phenological synchronization among species has changed over time affecting the herbivory and fruit set. Herbivory and fruit production were recorded during three reproductive seasons (2008/2009, 2011/2012, 2013/2014). We developed a mathematical model to estimate the flower and fruit production in response to phenological changes for the next 5 years. Results show that climatic factors changed, influencing the onset of species flowering. The degree of overlap among species also changed and the effects on species interactions were species specific. The mathematical model successfully presented a tendency on flower and fruit production contributing to the predictions of the outcomes in response to phenological changes. We confirm the effects of climate changes on plant phenological events and the importance of feature plasticity for better performance of species.     

Genetic diversity increases regional variation in phenological dates in response to climate change

Climate change is inducing changes in the phenological timings of organisms. Genetic diversity could influence phenological responses to climate change, but empirical evidence is very limited. We estimated the regional variation across Japan in flowering and leaf budburst dates of plants based on a dataset of phenological timings from 1953 to 2005. The observed plants' genetic diversities varied according to human cultivation. The within-species variations of phenological response to temperature as well as regional variations were less in the plant populations with lower genetic diversity. Thus, genetic diversity influences the variation in phenological responses of plant populations. Under increased temperatures, low variation in phenological responses may allow drastic changes in the phenology of plant populations with synchronized phenological timings. Our findings indicate that we should pay attention to maintaining genetic diversity of populations to alleviate changes in phenology due to future climate change.     

Different temperature perception in high‐elevation plants: new insight into phenological development and implications for climate change in the alpine tundra

In alpine habitats, predicted warmer and longer growing seasons will influence plant phenology, with important implications for species adaptation and vegetation dynamics. However, little is known on the temperature sensitivity of different phenophases and on the characteristics allowing phenological variation among and within species. By integrating interannual micro‐climatic variability with experimental warming, we explored how the phenology of three alpine species is influenced by temperature and what mechanisms underlie intra‐ and inter‐specific phenological differences. The present study demonstrated that alpine plants have different temperature responses during their reproductive cycle, do not have constant thermal thresholds and heat‐use efficiencies to achieve the seed dispersal stage and can change their temperature sensitivity to flower along snowmelt gradients. In addition, the length of the reproductive cycle, which proved to be species‐specific under experimental warming, does not seem to be the only life‐history trait under selective pressure due to the short‐length of the snow‐free period. In a warming climate scenario, the phenology of sexual reproduction will be considerably altered, and alpine plants may be subjected to changes in population dynamics driven by altered perception of environmental cues appropriate for coordinating the timing of key life‐history events.     

Additive effects of herbivory,nectar robbing and seed predation on male and female fitness estimates of the host plant <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ipomopsis aggregata</Emphasis>

Many antagonistic species attack plants and consume specific plant parts. Understanding how these antagonists affect plant fitness individually and in combination is an important research focus in ecology and evolution. We examined the individual and combined effects of herbivory, nectar robbing, and pre-dispersal seed predation on male and female estimates of fitness in the host plant Ipomopsis aggregata. By examining the effects of antagonists on plant traits, we were able to tease apart the direct consumptive effects of antagonists versus the indirect effects mediated through changes in traits important to pollination. In a three-way factorial field experiment, we manipulated herbivory, nectar robbing, and seed predation. Herbivory and seed predation reduced some male and female fitness estimates, whereas plants tolerated the effects of robbing. The effects of herbivory, robbing, and seed predation were primarily additive, and we found little evidence for non-additive effects of multiple antagonists on plant reproduction. Herbivory affected plant reproduction through both direct consumptive effects and indirectly through changes in traits important to pollination (i.e., nectar and phenological traits). Conversely, seed predators primarily had direct consumptive effects on plants. Our results suggest that the effects of multiple antagonists on estimates of plant fitness can be additive, and investigating which traits respond to damage can provide insight into how antagonists shape plant performance.     

北京地区木本春季物候特征与生物学特性的关系

植物物候是植物生活史中的重要性状,也是指示气候与自然环境变化的重要指标,现已成为全球变化领域的研究热点之一。传统物候研究多假设物候由气候因素决定,如气温、降水、光照等,并主要从植物物候的年际变化角度探讨了气候因素对物候特征的影响。然而,不同物种的物候存在较大差异表明植物物候还与自身生物学特性（如系统发育和功能性状）有关,但植物生物学特性如何影响植物物候仍缺乏深入研究。基于北京地区44种木本植物1965-2018年的展叶始期和开花始期观测资料,以展叶始期和开花始期的3类物候特征（平均物候期、物候对温度的响应敏感度和物候期的积温需求）为例,探究植物物候特征与系统发育和功能性状的关系。首先,利用系统发育信号Blomberg’s K和进化模型检验植物物候特征是否具有系统发育保守性,并通过系统发育信号表征曲线直观表达植物物候特征的进化模式;之后,利用广义估计方程分析植物生活型、传粉型与物候特征的关系,以揭示不同植物的资源利用方式及生存策略的差异。研究发现：（1）除展叶始期的温度敏感度外,其余物候特征的进化均受随机遗传漂变和自然选择力的共同作用,可推断物候特征具有系统发育保守性,即亲缘关系越近的物种物候特征越相似。（2）开花始期的系统发育信号强度比展叶始期更大,表明繁殖物候的系统发育可能比生长物候更保守。（3）植物展叶始期及其积温需求与生活型密切相关。灌木比乔木的展叶时间早、积温需求少。植物开花始期与传粉型相关,风媒植物开花显著早于虫媒植物。研究成果有助于深入理解物候变化的生物学机制,对于丰富物候学的理论研究有重要意义,同时对植物保护也具有重要的指导价值。