Decision science for effective management of populations subject to stochasticity and imperfect knowledge

Many species are threatened by human activity through processes such as habitat modification, water management, hunting, and introduction of invasive species. These anthropogenic threats must be mitigated as efficiently as possible because both time and money available for mitigation are limited. For example, it is essential to address the type and degree of uncertainties present to derive effective management strategies for managed populations. Decision science provides the tools required to produce effective management strategies that can maximize or minimize the desired objective(s) based on imperfect knowledge, taking into account stochasticity. Of particular importance are questions such as how much of available budgets should be invested in reducing uncertainty and which uncertainties should be reduced. In such instances, decision science can help select efficient environmental management actions that may be subject to stochasticity and imperfect knowledge. Here, we review the use of decision science in environmental management to demonstrate the utility of the decision science framework. Our points are illustrated using examples from the literature. We conclude that collaboration between theoreticians and practitioners is crucial to maximize the benefits of decision science’s rational approach to dealing with uncertainty.     

Soil organic carbon across scales

Mechanistic understanding of scale effects is important for interpreting the processes that control the global carbon cycle. Greater attention should be given to scale in soil organic carbon (SOC) science so that we can devise better policy to protect/enhance existing SOC stocks and ensure sustainable use of soils. Global issues such as climate change require consideration of SOC stock changes at the global and biosphere scale, but human interaction occurs at the landscape scale, with consequences at the pedon, aggregate and particle scales. This review evaluates our understanding of SOC across all these scales in the context of the processes involved in SOC cycling at each scale and with emphasis on stabilizing SOC. Current synergy between science and policy is explored at each scale to determine how well each is represented in the management of SOC. An outline of how SOC might be integrated into a framework of soil security is examined. We conclude that SOC processes at the biosphere to biome scales are not well understood. Instead, SOC has come to be viewed as a large‐scale pool subjects to carbon flux. Better understanding exists for SOC processes operating at the scales of the pedon, aggregate and particle. At the landscape scale, the influence of large‐ and small‐scale processes has the greatest interaction and is exposed to the greatest modification through agricultural management. Policy implemented at regional or national scale tends to focus at the landscape scale without due consideration of the larger scale factors controlling SOC or the impacts of policy for SOC at the smaller SOC scales. What is required is a framework that can be integrated across a continuum of scales to optimize SOC management.     

Assessing deer densities and impacts at the appropriate level for management: a review of methodologies for use beyond the site scale

• 1 Population density alone is unlikely to be a good predictor of the impacts of deer on their environment. The assessment of management requirements should therefore be based on assessment of deer impacts, alongside estimates of density.
• 2 Both density and impacts need to be monitored at a landscape scale, and there is a need to develop appropriate methodologies that allow managers to consider the current and likely future impact of deer.
• 3 The relevant scale for assessment (and management) varies both with deer species and context of impact, but should always encompass at least the estimated biological range of the population of deer present in an area. Some impacts (e.g. deer–vehicle collisions, and risks of disease transmission) may need to be assessed at a wider regional level.
• 4 In this review we consider various approaches available for assessing: absolute or relative animal abundance; impacts of ungulates on agriculture, forestry, amenity woodlands and other conservation sites; impacts on public safety (e.g. through road traffic accidents) and on humans or livestock through potential spread of disease.
• 5 In each case the advantages and disadvantages of a variety of methods are considered, before recommendations are made for methodologies which are sufficiently accurate, sufficiently robust and sufficiently practical to be favoured in a management context.
• 6 To address impacts at the landscape scale requires management policies that integrate information on both positive and negative impacts of deer in order to ensure appropriate and holistic management. We present a decision‐support framework suitable for use within the UK, using inputs from a variety of possible impact types to assist managers and forewarn of situations where current management may need to be modified.

     

Temporal scaling in analysis of animal activity

Activity is a fundamental aspect of animal behavior, but whether different factors influence activity at different temporal scales is poorly understood as ecologically‐relevant multi‐temporal‐scale (MTS) activity analysis frameworks have not been developed. The hierarchy of limiting factors hypothesis postulates that the scale of resource selection reflects its importance for escaping limiting factors, but the hypothesis has not been tested by studies that examine activity across multiple temporal scales. We hypothesized that a MTS analysis framework would reveal that different factors influence activity at different temporal scales. We studied American martens Martes americana fitted with sensors that measured activity during winter at high temporal resolution. Using a MTS analysis framework, we showed that different factors influenced marten activity across three different biologically based, hierarchically‐ordered temporal scales (day, bout, and decision). Mortality risk influenced marten activity at the broader scales examined (day and bout), but not at the finest scale (decision), which is consistent with the hierarchy of limiting factors hypothesis. We also found evidence of cross scale consistency and support of multiple hypotheses at bout and decision scales, suggesting some factors operate across multiple scales and trade‐offs occur for some factors (e.g. risk for forage). Prey activity and thermal conservation influenced activity at the finer scales examined, but not at the day‐scale, and competition influenced activity only at the bout scale. Marten activity was polyphasic and occurred across the 24‐h period, which is probably due to digestive and metabolic constraints. Results from this and other studies indicate that activity is sensitive to temporal scale for a wide range of species. MTS frameworks should lead to a more comprehensive understanding of how different mechanisms influence animal activity, and ultimately, biological fitness.     

美国、加拿大环境和健康风险管理方法

对目前美国和加拿大多个部门使用的风险评价与风险管理方法进行了全面回顾和综合分析,论述各种不同方法的特征,深入探讨各种管理方法的基础、利弊、使用经验,辨识环境、人类健康和职业健康风险综合方法中应该包含的要素,阐述风险管理目标的确定方法,以期为中国的环境风险管理提供经验。     

Substance use disorders: a comprehensive update of classification,epidemiology, neurobiology,clinical aspects,treatment and prevention

Substance use disorders (SUDs) are highly prevalent and exact a large toll on individuals’ health, well-being, and social functioning. Long-lasting changes in brain networks involved in reward, executive function, stress reactivity, mood, and self-awareness underlie the intense drive to consume substances and the inability to control this urge in a person who suffers from addiction (moderate or severe SUD). Biological (including genetics and developmental life stages) and social (including adverse childhood experiences) determinants of health are recognized factors that contribute to vulnerability for or resilience against developing a SUD. Consequently, prevention strategies that target social risk factors can improve outcomes and, when deployed in childhood and adolescence, can decrease the risk for these disorders. SUDs are treatable, and evidence of clinically significant benefit exists for medications (in opioid, nicotine and alcohol use disorders), behavioral therapies (in all SUDs), and neuromodulation (in nicotine use disorder). Treatment of SUDs should be considered within the context of a Chronic Care Model, with the intensity of intervention adjusted to the severity of the disorder and with the concomitant treatment of comorbid psychiatric and physical conditions. Involvement of health care providers in detection and management of SUDs, including referral of severe cases to specialized care, offers sustainable models of care that can be further expanded with the use of telehealth. Despite advances in our understanding and management of SUDs, individuals with these conditions continue to be stigmatized and, in some countries, incarcerated, highlighting the need to dismantle policies that perpetuate their criminalization and instead develop policies to ensure support and access to prevention and treatment.     

COMPETENCE,PRACTICAL RATIONALITY AND WHAT A PATIENT VALUES

According to the principle of patient autonomy, patients have the right to be self‐determining in decisions about their own medical care, which includes the right to refuse treatment. However, a treatment refusal may legitimately be overridden in cases where the decision is judged to be incompetent. It has recently been proposed that in assessments of competence, attention should be paid to the evaluative judgments that guide patients' treatment decisions. In this paper I examine this claim in light of theories of practical rationality, focusing on the difficult case of an anorexic person who is judged to be competent and refuses treatment, thereby putting themselves at risk of serious harm. I argue that the standard criteria for competence assess whether a treatment decision satisfies the goals of practical decision‐making, and that this same criterion can be applied to a patient's decision‐guiding commitments. As a consequence I propose that a particular understanding of practical rationality offers a theoretical framework for justifying involuntary treatment in the anorexia case.     

生态功能区划理论研究进展

作为生态系统管理的重要手段,开展科学合理的生态功能区划,已成为世界各国走向可持续发展所面临的关键挑战之一。生态功能区划针对一定区域内自然地理环境分异性、生态系统多样性、以及经济与社会发展不均衡性的现状,结合自然资源保护和可持续开发利用的思想,整合与分异生态系统服务功能对区域人类活动影响的生态敏感性,将区域空间划分为不同生态功能区的研究过程。生态功能区划反映了基于景观特征的主要生态模式,强调了不同时空尺度的景观异质性。通过梳理生态功能区划的概念与内涵、形成与发展及其理论基础,提出了生态功能区划是以恢复区域持续性、完整性的生态系统健康为目标,基于区域的自然地理背景,界定生态功能分区及其子系统的边界,结合区域水陆生态系统、社会经济与土地利用的现状评价与问题诊断,识别生态系统空间格局的分布特征、生态过程的关键因子以及动态演替的驱动因子,明确影响生态系统服务功能的景观格局与结构、景观过程与功能以及景观动态变化,构建生态功能区划的指标体系与技术体系,实现生态功能多级区划,并为决策者更为全面和综合地开展生态系统管理提供科学依据。     

Ecological Discord and the Importance of Scale in Scientific Inquiry

Scale is widely recognized today as an important concept in ecology because the scale of investigation determines the patterns and processes that can be observed. Ecological investigations can produce different outcomes depending on the scale at which observations are made, and ecological disagreements have occurred simply because investigators addressed the same question using different scales. Here I draw on quail research to illustrate the importance of scale in ecological studies and how lack of scale consideration can lead to discord. I use northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) as the focal species and discuss 2 areas of investigation (woody-cover requirements and influence of rainfall) that are characterized by confusion and disagreement but where consideration of scale brings clarity. In the process, I discover 2 formerly unrecognized patterns: northern bobwhite use of woody cover is inversely related with spatial extent of observation, and the influence of rainfall on northern bobwhite abundance decreases with decreasing spatial extent. In both cases, consideration of scale clarifies muddled knowledge and creates a unified framework for management. Future ecological investigations should formulate research questions within a scale framework, provide an explicit statement of scale in methods, and interpret findings within a scale context to help advance wildlife science and management. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Changing Paradigms in Seagrass Restoration

Sharing experiences and results among scientists and managers working on seagrass restoration was the main objective of the first European Seagrass Restoration Workshop that gathered researchers from around Europe. The meeting was the first forum in Europe that allowed for scientists, NGOs, and managers to interact and share their experiences relating to seagrass restoration and management. The results show that none of the seagrass restoration programs developed in Europe by the participants during the last 10 years was successful. Furthermore, an informal review of data published in seagrass restoration success, showed that the results reported were biased because they were mostly based on a very short monitoring period (i.e. < 1 year). Numerous decision trees, guidelines, and restoration models have been developed to aid seagrass restoration management, but the results of this workshop point toward a new paradigm in seagrass restoration were efforts should shift to give priority to natural restoration potential, with an emphasis on the fact that restoration should never be considered the first alternative when planning for the mitigation of coastal development projects or to justify mitigation as a compensation measure for economic activities.     

Comparison of Approaches for Developing Distributions for Carcinogenic Slope Factors

In recent years, risk assessors have increasingly been moving away from deterministic risk assessment approaches and are applying probabilistic approaches that incorporate distributions of possible values for each input parameter. This paper reviews several approaches that are being used or that could potentially be used to develop distributions for carcinogenic slope factors (CSFs). Based on the primary tool or framework that is applied, these approaches have been divided into the following three categories: the statistical framework, the decision analysis framework, and the biological framework. Work that has been done on each approach is summarized, and the aspects of variability and uncertainty that are incorporated into each approach are examined. The implications of the resulting distributional information for calculating risk estimates or risk-based concentrations is explored. The approaches differ in their stage of development, the degree to which they diverge from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) current practice in establishing CSF values, their flexibility to accommodate varying data sets or theories of carcinogenicity, and their complexity of application. In some cases, wide ranges of potential potency estimates are indicated by these approaches. Such findings suggest widely divergent risk assessment implications and the need for additional evaluation of the goals of developing CSF distributions for use in risk assessment applications and the types of information that should be reflected in such distributions. Some combination of the features offered by these approaches may best support risk assessment and risk management decisions.     

生态风险评价研究进展

20多年来,生态风险评价研究经历了从环境风险到生态风险到区域生态风险评价的发展历程,风险源由单一风险源扩展到多风险源,风险受体由单一受体发展到多受体,评价范围由局地扩展到区域景观水平.区域生态风险评价就是大尺度上研究复杂环境背景下包含多风险源、多风险受体的综合风险研究.目前,区域生态风险评价的理论框架已经搭建起来,统计方法多采用相对评价法.区域生态风险评价未来的发展方向为继续加强实验和野外调查,进一步减小不确定性,逐步解决尺度推移问题.区域生态风险评价必须与经济、社会、文化相结合,才能充分发挥它在管理决策中的作用.     

Environmental Risk Management Decision-Making in a Societal Context

Recent studies point to the need for improved understanding of environmental management frameworks designed to combine qualitative public and quantitative technical inputs in decision-making processes. Flux in public perception and concern about risks imply frameworks must be iterative in nature and incorporate a variety of assessment triggers in the form of decision points. A conceptual model is proposed here to explain the de facto operation of standard risk analytic frameworks within the broader sociopolitical milieu of public policy. The model is presented as a decision flow diagram that emphasizes setting environmental management goals based on societal input and the formulation of decision criteria for selecting management actions to achieve those goals. Prospective and retrospective decision control points operate to select management options that, respectively, avoid or reduce actual or predicted effects. Feedback loops that modify risk management outcomes are identified. Technical and scientific inputs (i.e., risk analysis) are assigned an essential information role within the framework and are responsible for informing the management process with the results of appropriately conducted and reviewed investigations. The proposed model is intended primarily to indicate how environmental risk management decision-making and associated technical assessments may be influenced by social pressures. It is hoped this understanding will lead to analytical transparency and better public communication of the environmental implications of policy options.     

Risk Factors for the Failure of Spinal Burst Fractures Treated Conservatively According to the Thoracolumbar Injury Classification and Severity Score (TLICS): A Retrospective Cohort Trial

Background

The management of thoracolumbar (TL) burst fractures is still controversial. The thoracolumbar injury classification and severity score (TLICS) algorithm is now widely used to guide clinical decision making, however, in clinical practice, we come to realize that TLICS also has its limitations for treating patients with total scores less than 4, for which conservative treatment may not be optimal in all cases.

Purpose

The aim of this study is to identify several risk factors for the failure of conservative treatment of TL burst fractures according to TLICS algorithm.

Methods

From June 2008 to December 2013, a cohort of 129 patients with T10-l2 TL burst fractures with a TLISC score ≤3 treated non-operatively were identified and included into this retrospective study. Age, sex, pain intensity, interpedicular distance (IPD), canal compromise, loss of vertebral body height and kyphotic angle (KA) were selected as potential risk factors and compared between the non-operative success group and the non-operative failure group.

Results

One hundred and four patients successfully completed non-operative treatment, the other 25 patients were converted to surgical treatment because of persistent local back pain or progressive neurological deficits during follow-up. Our results showed that age, visual analogue scale (VAS) score and IPD, KA were significantly different between the two groups. Furthermore, regression analysis indicated that VAS score and IPD could be considered as significant predictors for the failure of conservative treatment.

Conclusion

The recommendation of non-operative treatment for TLICS score ≤3 has limitations in some patients, and VAS score and IPD could be considered as risk factors for the failure of conservative treatment. Thus, conservative treatment should be decided with caution in patients with greater VAS scores or IPD. If non-operative management is decided, a close follow-up is necessary.     

How to Decide Whether to Move Species Threatened by Climate Change

Introducing species to areas outside their historical range to secure their future under climate change is a controversial strategy for preventing extinction. While the debate over the wisdom of this strategy continues, such introductions are already taking place. Previous frameworks for analysing the decision to introduce have lacked a quantifiable management objective and mathematically rigorous problem formulation. Here we develop the first rigorous quantitative framework for deciding whether or not a particular introduction should go ahead, which species to prioritize for introduction, and where and how to introduce them. It can also be used to compare introduction with alternative management actions, and to prioritise questions for future research. We apply the framework to a case study of tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus) in New Zealand. While simple and accessible, this framework can accommodate uncertainty in predictions and values. It provides essential support for the existing IUCN guidelines by presenting a quantitative process for better decision-making about conservation introductions.     

Types of Integration in Risk Assessment and Management,And Why They Are Needed

Risk-based decision making requires that the decision makers and stakeholders are informed of all risks that are potentially significant and relevant to the decision. The International Programme on Chemical Safety of the World Health Organization has developed a framework for integrating the assessment of human health and ecological risks. However, other types of integration are needed to support particular environmental decisions. They are integration of exposure and effects, of multiple chemicals and other hazardous agents, of multiple routes of exposure, of multiple endpoints, multiple receptors, multiple spatial and temporal scales, a product's life cycle, management alternatives, and socioeconomics with risk assessment. Inclusion of all these factors in an integrated assessment could lead to paralysis by analysis. Therefore, it is important that assessors be cognizant of the decision process and that decision makers and those who will influence the decision (stakeholders) be involved in planning the assessment to ensure that the degree of integration is necessary and sufficient.     

Framing pictures: A conceptual framework to identify and correct for biases in detection probability of camera traps enabling multi‐species comparison

Obtaining reliable species observations is of great importance in animal ecology and wildlife conservation. An increasing number of studies use camera traps (CTs) to study wildlife communities, and an increasing effort is made to make better use and reuse of the large amounts of data that are produced. It is in these circumstances that it becomes paramount to correct for the species‐ and study‐specific variation in imperfect detection within CTs. We reviewed the literature and used our own experience to compile a list of factors that affect CT detection of animals. We did this within a conceptual framework of six distinct scales separating out the influences of (a) animal characteristics, (b) CT specifications, (c) CT set‐up protocols, and (d) environmental variables. We identified 40 factors that can potentially influence the detection of animals by CTs at these six scales. Many of these factors were related to only a few overarching parameters. Most of the animal characteristics scale with body mass and diet type, and most environmental characteristics differ with season or latitude such that remote sensing products like NDVI could be used as a proxy index to capture this variation. Factors that influence detection at the microsite and camera scales are probably the most important in determining CT detection of animals. The type of study and specific research question will determine which factors should be corrected. Corrections can be done by directly adjusting the CT metric of interest or by using covariates in a statistical framework. Our conceptual framework can be used to design better CT studies and help when analyzing CT data. Furthermore, it provides an overview of which factors should be reported in CT studies to make them repeatable, comparable, and their data reusable. This should greatly improve the possibilities for global scale analyses of (reused) CT data.     

Developing and Communicating a Taxonomy of Ecological Indicators: A Case Study from the Mid-Atlantic

To ensure indicators of ecosystem health are integrated into environmental decision-making, it is imperative to provide a comprehensive framework for indicator selection and use. The same framework can also be used to evaluate the utility of any given indicator. The Atlantic Slope Consortium (ASC) has developed such a framework, based upon three primary elements: 1) The specific questions to be answered (the type of indicator), recognizing the following types of questions/indicators: Condition assessment: snapshot of the current state of the system; Stressor diagnosis: identification of causative factors of condition; Communication to the public: encouraging comprehension of condition in its most elementary or integrated form; Futures assessment: estimating the probable trajectory of condition, or assessing the vulnerability of any system to a stochastic event; Evaluation: a subset of condition indicators that evaluate the effectiveness of management actions. 2) The spatial and/or temporal scale of the issue being addressed (the spatial/temporal scale over which the indicator is valid). 3) The context of the question, using categories of surrounding land use as surrogates for social choices. A Fish Community Index (FCI) developed for the ASC will provide an example of utilizing the framework to select an indicator, as well as using the framework to judge the utility of the indicator.