Dominant control of climate variations over land-use change on net primary productivity under different urbanization intensities in Beijing,China

Climate variations and land-use change induced by rapid urbanization can lead to crucial impacts on ecosystem Net Primary Productivity (NPP), especially in regions with intensive human activity. However, the relative contributions of land-use change and climate variations to NPP changes under different urbanization intensities are still a topic of debate. This study reports on a case study in Beijing, which is undergoing rapid urbanization, to estimate the effects of land-use change and climate variations on NPP in regions with diverse urbanization intensities in recent decades using remote-sensing data and the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model. The results reveal obvious land-use changes in Beijing, showing an increase in both built-up and forested areas in the two inner, highly urbanized regions and a dramatic conversion from built-up area and grassy bush to forest in the two outer, less urbanized regions. Factorial experiments were performed to estimate the contributions of land-use change and climate variations to NPP changes for different regions and land-use types. An increasing trend in regional NPP was observed with decreasing urbanization intensity in all experiments. However, the increment in NPP between 2002 and 2009 tended to decrease with decreasing urbanization intensity in most experiments. Climate variation was the dominant factor in increasing NPP in the study region during 2002–2009, with a mean contribution of ∼89.5% over different regions and land-use types. However, land-use change contributed to a certain extent to NPP changes for specific land-use types (e.g., ∼28.1% for forests) in regions of intensive urbanization. Eco-engineering approaches such as increasing vegetation cover, especially forest, in built-up areas and reforestation and afforestation in non-built-up areas may be useful in mitigating the impacts of urbanization on NPP, especially in intensively urbanized regions.     

Comparing the Ecological Impacts of Wind and Oil & Gas Development: A Landscape Scale Assessment

Energy production in the United States is in transition as the demand for clean and domestic power increases. Wind energy offers the benefit of reduced emissions, yet, like oil and natural gas, it also contributes to energy sprawl. We used a diverse set of indicators to quantify the ecological impacts of oil, natural gas, and wind energy development in Colorado and Wyoming. Aerial imagery was supplemented with empirical data to estimate habitat loss, fragmentation, potential for wildlife mortality, susceptibility to invasion, biomass carbon lost, and water resources. To quantify these impacts we digitized the land-use footprint within 375 plots, stratified by energy type. We quantified the change in impacts per unit area and per unit energy produced, compared wind energy to oil and gas, and compared landscapes with and without energy development. We found substantial differences in impacts between energy types for most indicators, although the magnitude and direction of the differences varied. Oil and gas generally resulted in greater impacts per unit area but fewer impacts per unit energy compared with wind. Biologically important and policy-relevant outcomes of this study include: 1) regardless of energy type, underlying land-use matters and development in already disturbed areas resulted in fewer total impacts; 2) the number and source of potential mortality varied between energy types, however, the lack of robust mortality data limits our ability to use this information to estimate and mitigate impacts; and 3) per unit energy produced, oil and gas extraction was less impactful on an annual basis but is likely to have a much larger cumulative footprint than wind energy over time. This rapid evaluation of landscape-scale energy development impacts could be replicated in other regions, and our specific findings can help meet the challenge of balancing land conservation with society’s demand for energy.     

Size-dependent resistance of protected areas to land-use change

One of the major threats facing protected areas (PAs) is land-use change and habitat loss. We assessed the impact of land-use change on PAs. The majority of parks have been effective at protecting the ecosystems within their borders, even in areas with significant land-use pressures. More in particular, the capacity of PAs to slow down habitat degradation and to favour habitat restoration is clearly related to their size, with smaller areas that on average follow the dominant land-use change pattern into which they are embedded. Our results suggest that small parks are not going to be viable in the long term if they are considered as islands surrounded by a 'human-dominated ocean'. However, small PAs are, in many cases, the only option available, implying that we need to devote much more attention to the non-protected matrix in which PAs must survive.     

Mapping transition potential with stakeholder- and policy-driven scenarios in Rotterdam City

This paper introduces a mapping approach to identify hot- and hard-spots for sustainability transition in cities by analyzing different stakeholder- and policy-driven land-use scenarios in Rotterdam City, the Netherlands. Rotterdam's sustainability office initiated a knowledge co-production process in which visions and transition pathways for the sustainable and resilient future of Rotterdam, considering existing challenges and opportunities, were co-created. These scenarios were analyzed using a straightforward scenario approach to spatially identify, map and analyze change. By mapping change, trade-offs and synergies between different land-use options among the scenarios, this study disentangles the complexity of a stakeholder co-production process and is able to discover crucial transition areas. Furthermore, multiple urban ecosystem services were valued for each scenario, and environmental impacts could be detected for all of the different visions. The mapping approach applied is a good method to communicate the consequences of induced land-use change back to stakeholders and decision-makers and thus contributes to the visual loop of real co-design. Identifying the hot-spots of change enables attention to be drawn to the most rewarding areas for transition, and moreover, it shows areas in which different visions are not conflicting but rather cross-benefiting each other. Additionally, hard-spots or areas in which existing visions contradict each other show that careful mediation and the revision of change options might be the way to go.     

Synergistic effects of climate and land-use change on representation of African bats in priority conservation areas

Bats are considered important bioindicators and deliver key ecosystem services to humans. However, it is not clear how the individual and combined effects of climate change and land-use change will affect their conservation in the future. We used a spatial conservation prioritization framework to determine future shifts in the priority areas for the conservation of 169 bat species under projected climate and land-use change scenarios across Africa. Specifically, we modelled species distribution models under four different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon. We used land-use change scenarios within the spatial conservation prioritization framework to assess habitat quality in areas where bats may shift their distributions. Overall, bats’ representation within already existing protected areas in Africa was low (∼5% of their suitable habitat in protected areas which cover ∼7% of Africa). Accounting for future land-use change resulted in the largest shift in spatial priority areas for conservation actions, and species representation within priority areas for conservation actions decreased by ∼9%. A large proportion of spatial conservation priorities will shift from forested areas with little disturbance under present conditions to agricultural areas in the future. Planning land use to reduce impacts on bats in priority areas outside protected areas where bats will be shifting their ranges in the future is crucial to enhance their conservation and maintain the important ecosystem services they provide to humans.     

Limitations of Protected Areas Zoning in Mediterranean Cultural Landscapes Under the Ecosystem Services Approach

Protected areas have been created worldwide to set apart certain areas from land-use transformation. The biodiversity and ecosystems protected by these areas deliver several ecosystem services. Recently, besides increasing global protected coverage, there has been a growing demand to assess the adequacy of protected areas management. In this study, we assessed how the management of protected areas can deal with ecosystem services taking as example the Doñana and Sierra Nevada protected areas (Spain). For that aim we analyzed the protected area management plans, mapped seven ecosystem services, and assessed how they are affected by protected area zoning and land-use intensity. We found that although provisioning and cultural services are included in the management plans of the protected areas under a different terminology, regulating services are barely addressed. Ecosystem service delivery varies depending on several factors including the protection category of the protected areas (protection intensity), land-use intensity and geomorphological factors, among others. Therefore, we discuss that integrating ecosystem services in protected area management requires dealing with complexity, necessitating the establishment of specific goals for ecosystem service delivery, which include ecosystem service synergies and trade-offs.     

Future land use effects on the connectivity of protected area networks in southeastern Spain

Land-use change is a major driver of the global biodiversity crisis, mainly via the fragmentation and loss of natural habitat. Although land-use changes will accelerate to meet humankind's growing demand for agricultural products, conservation planning rarely considers future land uses and how they may affect the connectivity of ecological networks. Here, we integrate land-use models with landscape fragmentation and connectivity analyses, to assess the effects of past and future land-use changes on the connectivity of protected area networks for a highly dynamic region in southeast Spain. Our results show a continued geographical polarisation of land use, with agricultural intensification and urban development in the coastal areas, and the abandonment of traditional land use in the mountains (e.g., 1100 km² of natural vegetation are projected to be lost in coastal areas whereas 32 km² of natural vegetation would recover in interior areas from 1991 to 2015). As a result, coastal protected areas will experience increasing isolation. The connectivity analyses reveal that the two protected area networks in place in the study area, the European “Natura 2000” and the Andalusian “RENPA” networks, include many landscape connectors. However, we identify two areas that currently lack protection but contain several important patches for maintaining the region's habitat connectivity: the northwestern and the southwestern slopes of the Sierra Cabrera and Bédar protected area. Our results highlight the importance of considering future land-use trajectories in conservation planning to maintain connectivity at the regional scale, and to improve the resilience of conservation networks.     

Taxonomic and functional approaches reveal different responses of ant assemblages to land-use changes

Land-use change is well documented to cause species loss. However, our understanding of the effects of land-use change on other aspects of biodiversity is still limited. We evaluated if different land-use changes (Eucalyptus plantation and planted pasture) affect ant species and functional groups in similar ways across three Cerrado vegetation types (grassland, savanna and savanna-forest). We found that ant species and functional responses differed with land-use change in relation to frequency of occurrence and habitat specificity and fidelity. Land-use change affected species frequency of occurrence but not functional groups, indicating that species are more sensitive than functional groups to habitat transformation. Native habitats had different indicator species and functional groups compared with converted habitats. However, we did not find functional group indicators of converted habitats in any vegetation type; indicating that there is no specificity and fidelity of functional group to converted habitats and that such an approach is less sensitive to land-use changes. In savanna and savanna-forest, species and functional groups showed the same response in relation to composition with differences between native and converted habitats. Thus, functional groups will be lost when ant species are lost. In grasslands, functional group composition was similar between native and converted habitats indicating a turnover of species within functional groups. We demonstrate that both Eucalyptus plantation and planted pasture affect ant species and functional groups in different ways, with negative impacts both taxonomically and less so functionally. Therefore, we show that the two aspects of biodiversity can respond independently to land-use changes and, hence, the importance of using both taxonomic and functional group approaches to evaluate the effects of land-use change on biodiversity in savanna systems.     

Estimating global "blue carbon" emissions from conversion and degradation of vegetated coastal ecosystems

Recent attention has focused on the high rates of annual carbon sequestration in vegetated coastal ecosystems-marshes, mangroves, and seagrasses-that may be lost with habitat destruction ('conversion'). Relatively unappreciated, however, is that conversion of these coastal ecosystems also impacts very large pools of previously-sequestered carbon. Residing mostly in sediments, this 'blue carbon' can be released to the atmosphere when these ecosystems are converted or degraded. Here we provide the first global estimates of this impact and evaluate its economic implications. Combining the best available data on global area, land-use conversion rates, and near-surface carbon stocks in each of the three ecosystems, using an uncertainty-propagation approach, we estimate that 0.15-1.02 Pg (billion tons) of carbon dioxide are being released annually, several times higher than previous estimates that account only for lost sequestration. These emissions are equivalent to 3-19% of those from deforestation globally, and result in economic damages of $US 6-42 billion annually. The largest sources of uncertainty in these estimates stems from limited certitude in global area and rates of land-use conversion, but research is also needed on the fates of ecosystem carbon upon conversion. Currently, carbon emissions from the conversion of vegetated coastal ecosystems are not included in emissions accounting or carbon market protocols, but this analysis suggests they may be disproportionally important to both. Although the relevant science supporting these initial estimates will need to be refined in coming years, it is clear that policies encouraging the sustainable management of coastal ecosystems could significantly reduce carbon emissions from the land-use sector, in addition to sustaining the well-recognized ecosystem services of coastal habitats.     

Divergent effects of land-use,propagule pressure,and climate on woody riparian invasion

Landscape-scale analyses of biological invasion are needed to understand the relative importance of environmental drivers that vary at larger scales, such as climate, propagule pressure, resource availability, and human disturbance. One poorly understood landscape-scale question is, how does human land-use influence riparian plant invasion? To evaluate the relative importance of land-use, climate, propagule pressure, and water availability in riparian invasion, we examined tamarisk (Tamarix ramosissima, T. chinensis, hybrids), Russian olive (Elaeagnus angustifolia), and Siberian elm (Ulmus pumila) occurrence, abundance, and dominance in 238 riparian sites in developed, cultivated, and undeveloped areas of four western USA river basins (281,946 km²). Temperature and propagule pressure from individuals planted nearby largely drove invasive species occurrence, whereas factors likely to affect resource availability (e.g., land-use, precipitation, streamflow intermittency) were more important to abundance and dominance, supporting the argument that species distribution models based on occurrence alone may fail to identify conditions where invasive species have the greatest impact. The role of land-use varied among taxa: urban and suburban land-use increased Siberian elm occurrence, abundance, and dominance, and urban land-use increased Russian olive occurrence, whereas suburban land-use reduced tamarisk dominance. Surprisingly, Siberian elm, which has received scant prior scientific and management attention, occurred as or more frequently than tamarisk and Russian olive (except in undeveloped areas of the Colorado River headwaters) and had higher density and dominance than tamarisk and Russian olive in developed areas. More research is needed to understand the impacts of this largely unrecognized invader on riparian ecosystem services, particularly in urban and suburban areas.     

Impacts of land-use on West African savanna vegetation: a comparison between protected and communal area in Burkina Faso

Biodiversity matters in many aspects for human well-being by providing timber and non-timber products. The most important ecosystems providing these products in West Africa are savannas. In the context of land-use changes, there is an urgent need to understand the impact of land-use on savanna vegetation and biodiversity. This study assesses the impact of land-use on savannas by comparing protected and communal areas. Vegetation relevés were performed in the W National Park and its surrounding communal area in Burkina Faso. Vegetation types were established using ordination and clustering methods. We analyzed to find which environmental factors determine the occurrence of the vegetation types and whether land-use has a specific effect on diversity of vegetation types occurring in both areas. Furthermore, we tested the effect of land-use on vegetation structure and the occurrence of life forms and highly valued tree species. Our results reveal five vegetation types occurring in both areas. Elevation and soil characteristics played the most important role for the occurrence of the vegetation types. Land-use had an effect on vegetation structure, diversity, and the occurrence of life form and highly valued species. Our findings suggest that traditional human land-use does not automatically lead to loss of species and degradation of savanna habitats and that combination of communal and protected areas may be of great importance for the conservation of broad spectrum of biodiversity. Our study demonstrates the complexity of land-use impact on biodiversity patterns and provides insights on what kind of management activities may be most appropriate in both areas.     

Influence of Land-Use Intensification on Vegetation C-Stocks in an Alpine Valley from 1865 to 2003

The role of ecosystems as carbon (C) sinks or sources is intrinsically related to land-use intensity, which determines the land required for biomass production. Here, we systematically investigate the role of different land-use types including their land-use intensities on vegetation C-stocks (SC_act) in the Stubai valley, located in the Austrian central Alps. After a period of high land-use impacts until 1954, indicated by massive C-depletion, land-use shifted to completely new courses. Polarization into high-intensity low-land areas and extensification at higher altitudes allowed for a tripling of SC_act until 2003. The most important land-use change was the intensification of the livestock sector accompanied by abandonment of extensive grasslands and reduced harvest pressure on forests after WWII. Market integration, abundance of fossil energy carriers, as well as structural change of the economy were important underlying socio-economic drivers of these trends. However, despite this remarkable SC_act increase, SC_act amounted to only 62% of the potential carbon stocks (SC_pot) in 2003. Although conversion of forests to agriculture clearly contributed the lion’s share to this SC-gap, forest management explains roughly one quarter of the SC-difference. We found that time-lags between land-use shifts and the establishment of a new C-climax had fundamental repercussions on recent C-dynamics in the study region. Apparently, the land system is still net-accumulating C, although land-use changes have peaked decades earlier. Our findings are crucial for the understanding of C-dynamics, including the role of land management and time-lags in mountainous regions, which are regarded key areas for terrestrial C-sequestration.     

Risk map for the range expansion of Thrips palmi in Korea under climate change: Combining species distribution models with land-use change

Climate change and land-use change are the most powerful drivers for the invasion of alien species. To understand the integrated effects of these two drivers on pest invasion risk in the future, this study assessed how they impact the invasion risk of Thrips palmi Karny, which is the most serious invasive species in the Korean peninsula. The potential distribution of T. palmi was projected with a MaxEnt model for current and future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) based on occurrence records. The potential distribution extends to the north over time, except the eastern high mountainous area, for both RCPs in 2075. The MaxEnt outputs were filtered with agricultural area using data from three land-use change scenarios derived from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), because T. palmi populations can only be sustained in agricultural areas. The potential risk of T. palmi, based on the potential distribution probability in the future agricultural area, increased over time under all RCPs-SSPs combinations. The total area of T. palmi occurrence increased under RCPs-SSP1 and -SSP2 but decreased under RCPs-SSP3, due to agricultural areas being converted to urban areas. In conclusion, based on future climate change scenarios, T. palmi could be distributed throughout the Korean peninsula in the future. The invasion risk in agricultural areas will increase substantially; thus, intensive control measures for T. palmi are required in the future. Our research suggests that using both climate change and land-use change in pest risk mapping study can provide informative data for management strategy.     

人类活动对西南山地植被覆盖变化的影响——以重庆市为例

植被覆盖变化是生态环境变化的重要指标,定量解析其中的人类活动作用一直是生态领域研究的热点。以重庆市为例,基于遥感、气象以及统计数据,利用GIS技术和残差法,从归一化植被指数(NDVI)和土地利用/覆盖(LUCC)整合分析视角,探究西南山地2000-2020年植被覆盖变化的时空特征,深入解析人类活动影响。 研究表明：(1)近20年间研究区植被覆盖呈整体上升趋势且空间异质性强,渝东南和渝东北地区植被覆盖以及恢复趋势明显优于渝中地区。(2)残差分析表明人类活动对植被覆盖变化同时存在正向和负向两个方面的影响,以正向影响为主导。(3)林地未变区和耕地未变区对植被覆盖变化的贡献程度最大(两者共达到84.18%),退耕还林贡献率仅为1.24%。(4)封禁育林面积与林地未变区植被覆盖变化存在极显著正相关关系(R²=0.82),同时封禁育林生态工程能够较好地解释林地未变区残差变化。研究建立了LUCC对植被覆盖变化影响的贡献率清单,定量揭示封禁育林生态工程对植被覆盖恢复的重要作用,对丰富区域植被覆盖变化驱动研究具有一定参考价值。     

The future impact of climate and land-use changes on Anatolian ground squirrels under different scenarios

Climate and land-use changes are among the most important drivers of biodiversity loss and, moreover, their impacts on biodiversity are expected to increase further in the 21st century. In this study, the future impact of climate and land-use changes on Anatolian ground squirrels (Spermophilus xanthoprymnus) was assessed. Accordingly, a hierarchical approach with two steps was used. First, ecological niche modelling was used to assess the impact of climate change in areas accessible to Anatolian ground squirrels through dispersal (i.e. the impact of climate change). Second, based on the habitat preferences of ground squirrels, land-use data were used to assess the impact of land-use change in suitable bioclimatic areas for Anatolian ground squirrels under present and future conditions (i.e. the combined impact of both changes). Also, priority areas for the conservation of Anatolian ground squirrels were identified based on in-situ climate change refugia. This study represents a first attempt to combine niche modelling and land-use data for a species in Anatolia, one of the most vulnerable regions to the drivers of biodiversity loss, because it is the region where three of biodiversity hotspots meet, and interact. Habitat suitability (i.e. suitable habitats across suitable bioclimatic areas) was projected to decline by 19–69% in the future (depending on the scenario), mainly due to the loss of suitable bioclimatic areas (47–77%, depending on the scenario) at lower elevations and in the western part of the central Anatolia and in the eastern Anatolia, suggesting that Anatolian ground squirrels will contract their range in the future, mainly due to climate change. Thus, in-situ climate change refugia were projected mainly in the eastern and southeastern parts of the central Anatolia, suggesting these regions as priority areas for the conservation of Anatolian ground squirrels.     

Bush encroachment under three contrasting land-use practices in a mesic South African savanna

This study determined the effects of land-use practice had on the rate and extent of bush encroachment in a mesic savanna in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Changes in woody cover were measured for 1 km² sites in areas under communal, commercial and conservation land-use systems for the period between 1937 and 2000. Land users from each area were interviewed to gain the histories of each area and to determine how the changes in woody cover had impacted them and whether anything was being done to counteract the spread of trees and shrubs on their land. Bush encroachment occurred across all three of the land-use types in the 67-year period between 1937 and 2000. The results showed that land-use practice had enormous impacts on the process of bush encroachment. The communal site showed a decrease in grass (21%) and tree (5%) cover and an increase in shrub cover (13%). At the commercial site, there was a considerable decrease in grass cover (46%) and moderate increase in shrub cover (10%) and a massive increase in tree cover (36%). The area under conservation showed a substantial decrease in grass cover (47%), a slight decrease in shrub cover (19%) and a massive increase in tree cover (66%). The perceived causes of these changes were fairly similar amongst the different land users. The changes were mostly not perceived to be a problem for the communal land users. The main advantages mentioned were increased woody resources for building and firewood and increased browse availability. The commercial and conservation land users perceived the changes to have significant negative connotations including the loss of grazing land and biodiversity and secondary invasion of encroached areas by alien plant species. Despite these perceptions, very little has been done to combat bush encroachment in the commercial and conservation land use systems.     

Ring-based versus disc-based separation of spatial scales: a case study on the impact of arable land proportions on invertebrates in freshwater streams

The impact of different land-use types on species is traditionally estimated by correlating landscape proportions recorded in buffer areas around focal points with species data observed at these sites. If a high proportion of a specific land-use type exists within a small radius, it will be accumulated in larger buffers and may confound the interpretation at larger scales. We sampled freshwater invertebrates in ten streams using cages with artificial substrate and compared the effects of arable land proportions calculated in disc-shaped buffers of increasing radius versus areas calculated from non-overlapping rings of increasing radius. We hypothesize that (1) the accumulative disc-based approach leads to confounding effects across increasing buffer size and that (2) the use of ring-based methods facilitates the identification of relevant scales for conservation measures. The abundance of crustaceans showed a positive relationship with arable land proportions, but Plecoptera abundance and the taxonomic richness of Ephemeroptera and Plecoptera decreased with increasing arable land proportions in the surrounding landscape. Our results further support the presence of confounding effects in disc-based analyses, as correlations between arable land proportions and Crustacea, or Plecoptera, respectively, were affected by the accumulation of small-scale area proportions. The distance at which arable land proportions significantly affected benthic fauna in freshwater streams was consistently shorter if calculated from rings rather than from discs. Although an a priori definition of ring width introduces new challenges, a combined use of disc- and ring-based techniques for the estimation of land-use effects may substantially improve the realization of conservation and protection measures in terrestrial and aquatic systems.     

Implications of afforestation for bird communities: the importance of preceding land-use type

Afforestation of open habitats is one of the principal land-use changes underway in Europe and elsewhere in the world at present, and it can have a considerable impact on local biodiversity. The sustainable expansion of global forest plantations requires an understanding of the factors that determine the ecological impacts of afforestation. This study set out to determine the importance of preceding land-use type in determining the outcomes of afforestation for bird communities. Paired comparisons of 5-year-old exotic conifer plantations and matching non-forested sites were studied in areas of low (peatland), intermediate (wet grassland) and high (improved grassland) management intensity. Afforestation resulted in an overall increase in total bird density in all three habitat types. The effects of forest planting on bird conservation were found to be positively related to prior management intensity at the site. The density of bird species of conservation concern increased in response to the planting of intensively managed grassland sites, but decreased in response to afforestation of peatlands and of grasslands under intermediate management intensity. This study shows that plantation forests can, in some contexts, offer opportunities for bird conservation, and the findings highlight the trade-offs that are an integral part of land-use change. Therefore, where afforestation planning includes consideration of its impact on bird communities, planting should take place predominantly on sites of low biodiversity value, such as agriculturally improved grasslands. Furthermore, the preservation of sites of high conservation value within areas of afforestation would confer advantages on bird communities.     

Areas of Increasing Agricultural Abandonment Overlap the Distribution of Previously Common,Currently Threatened Plant Species

Human-driven land-use changes increasingly threaten biodiversity. In agricultural ecosystems, abandonment of former farmlands constitutes a major land-use shift. We examined the relationships between areas in which agriculture has been abandoned and the distribution records of threatened plant species across Japan. We selected 23 plant species that are currently identified as threatened but were previously common in the country as indicators of threatened plant species. The areas of abandoned farmlands within the distribution ranges of the indicator species were significantly larger than the proportion of abandoned farmland area across the whole country. Also, abandoned farmland areas were positively correlated with the occurrence of indicator species. Therefore, sections of agricultural landscape that are increasingly becoming abandoned and the distribution ranges of indicator species overlapped. These results suggest that abandoned farmland areas contain degraded or preferred habitats of threatened plant species. We propose that areas experiencing increased abandonment of farmland can be divided into at least two categories: those that threaten the existence of threatened species and those that provide habitats for these threatened species.     

Inferring Landscape-Scale Land-Use Impacts on Rivers Using Data from Mesocosm Experiments and Artificial Neural Networks

Identifying land-use drivers of changes in river condition is complicated by spatial scale, geomorphological context, land management, and correlations among responding variables such as nutrients and sediments. Furthermore, variations in standard metrics, such as substratum composition, do not necessarily relate causally to ecological impacts. Consequently, the absence of a significant relationship between a hypothesised driver and a dependent variable does not necessarily indicate the absence of a causal relationship. We conducted a gradient survey to identify impacts of catchment-scale grazing by domestic livestock on river macroinvertebrate communities. A standard correlative approach showed that community structure was strongly related to the upstream catchment area under grazing. We then used data from a stream mesocosm experiment that independently quantified the impacts of nutrients and fine sediments on macroinvertebrate communities to train artificial neural networks (ANNs) to assess the relative influence of nutrients and fine sediments on the survey sites from their community composition. The ANNs developed to predict nutrient impacts did not find a relationship between nutrients and catchment area under grazing, suggesting that nutrients were not an important factor mediating grazing impacts on community composition, or that these ANNs had no generality or insufficient power at the landscape-scale. In contrast, ANNs trained to predict the impacts of fine sediments indicated a significant relationship between fine sediments and catchment area under grazing. Macroinvertebrate communities at sites with a high proportion of land under grazing were thus more similar to those resulting from high fine sediments in a mesocosm experiment than to those resulting from high nutrients. Our study confirms that 1) fine sediment is an important mediator of land-use impacts on river macroinvertebrate communities, 2) ANNs can successfully identify subtle effects and separate the effects of correlated variables, and 3) data from small-scale experiments can generate relationships that help explain landscape-scale patterns.