Evaluation of weed eradication programs: the delimitation of extent

Eradication is a management strategy that can provide substantial ecological and economic benefits by eliminating incursions of pest organisms. In contrast to eradication efforts that target other pests, weed eradication programs can be very protracted owing to the presence of persistent seed banks and difficulties in detecting the target. Hence there is a need to develop criteria to assist in the evaluation of progress towards eradication. Knowledge of the extent of a weed incursion (the ‘delimitation’ criterion) is considered fundamental for eradication success, as an incursion will progress from any infestations that remain undetected and thus uncontrolled. This criterion is examined with regard to eradication programs targeting Bassia scoparia L. A.J. Scott [= Kochia scoparia L. Schrader], Chondrilla juncea L. (both in Western Australia) and Orobanche ramosa L. in South Australia. The B. scoparia incursion, which has been eradicated, was largely delimited within 12 months of the inception of its eradication program. In contrast, the Western Australian C. juncea incursion has never been delimited, owing to insufficient investment in surveillance during an eradication program spanning 30 years. An exponential decrease in the detection ratio (infested area detected/area searched) over time suggests that delimitation has been approached within 6 years of the inception of the eradication program for O. ramosa. An effective surveillance program is essential for achieving delimitation of a weed incursion.     

Distribution and eradication of an exotic tephritid fruit fly in Australia: relevance of invasion theory

Data from the eradication of the incursion of Bactrocera papayae Drew and Hancock (Dipt.: Tephritidae) in Australia (1995–1998) are used to assess the significance of various aspects of invasion theory, including the influence of towns on establishment, influence of propagule pressure on the pattern of establishment, and the existence of source‐sink dynamics. Because there were no sentinel traps in place, considerable spread had occurred before the eradication campaign started. The distribution of fly density around the epicentre in the town of Cairns and a transect along the main traffic routes to the north and south fitted a Cauchy model with a tail having the same slope as a power model with an exponent of ?2.4 extending to 160 km. The Cauchy model indicated that 50% of the flies on the transect would have occurred within 3.2 km of the epicentre, 90% within 13.2 km, and 99% within 60 km. The two major satellites at Mareeba (35 km from the epicentre in Cairns) and Mossman (65 km) were not used for the transect data and had respectively 15 and 30 times the density predicted by the model. The proportion of traps that caught flies (a measure of site occupancy) fell with distance from the epicentre. B. papayae was trapped consistently on only three of the 16 rainforest transects that were surveyed and these were relatively close to urban areas where eradication efforts were intense. Despite there being no eradication effort in the rainforest, the trends to extinction were similar to those in adjacent areas. The strategy of initially concentrating eradication efforts on the core and major satellites while maintaining a quarantine barrier at the airport and the boundaries of the infested area appears to be the key to the containment and rapid eradication of the incursion.     

Management and eradication options for Queensland fruit fly

Several tephritid fruit flies have explosive population growth and a wide host range, resulting in some of the largest impacts on horticultural crops, reducing marketable produce, and limiting market access. For these pests, early detection and eradication are routinely implemented in vulnerable areas. However, social and consumer concerns can limit the types of population management tools available for fruit fly incursion responses. Deterministic population models were used to compare eradication tools used at typical densities alone and in combination against the Queensland fruit fly (‘Qfly’), Bactrocera tryoni. The models suggested that tools that prevent egg laying are likely to be most effective at reducing populations. Tools that induced mortality once Qfly was sexually mature only slowed population growth, as successful mating still occurred. Release of sterile Qfly when using the sterile insect technique (SIT) interferes with the successful mating of wild flies, and of the tools investigated here, SIT caused the greatest reduction in the population at the prescribed release rate. Used in tandem with SIT, protein baits slightly improved the rate of population reduction, but the male annihilation technique (MAT) almost nullified control by SIT due to the mortality induced on sterile flies. The model suggested that the most rapid decrease in population size would be achieved by SIT plus protein baits. However, the model predicted both the SIT and protein baits when used alone would result in population reduction. The MAT can be used prior to SIT release to increase overflooding ratios.     

Modelling the policy and economic context for detection- based monitoring tools: the costs and benefits of detecting last survivors and first re-colonisers

Establishing and maintaining the success of pest or weed eradication programmes requires interpretation of failures to detect survivors and first re-colonisers. Recent developments provide statistical frameworks that allow sequences of such failures to be interpreted in a probabilistic context. For example, application of these methods allow managers of eradication programmes to decide a priori an acceptable risk of programme failure, and to use this decision to design monitoring regimes that deliver this level of certainty, given the detection characteristics of the search techniques at their disposal. Similar methods could be use to design monitoring regimes to detect an incursion by a previously eradicated species (i.e. an eradication breakdown), which have an acceptable risk of failure. However, the availability of these methods begs questions about how “acceptable” risks of eradication failure or breakdown should be specified, and the consequent effort that should be expended to locate last survivors and first re- colonisers. We use a risk-based bioeconomic framework to model and analyse these decisions. The analysis demonstrates critical trade-offs between the cost and efficacy of the detection techniques available, the “value” of the eradication programme, and the perceived risk that a breakdown can occur. While our focus is on island pest eradication, we suggest how the bioeconomic framework used could be usefully applied to the detection of rare, at risk species, and the management of sporadically frequent diseases.     

Behavioural responses of invasive American mink Neovison vison to an eradication campaign, revealed by stable isotope analysis

1.  The detrimental impacts of invasive, non-native species on islands are widely acknowledged and it is often best to act rapidly against such species, even where uncertainty exists over the best way to proceed. If management actions are evaluated and refined, using information learnt from the biology of culled animals, this uncertainty can be gradually reduced, increasing the likelihood of a successful outcome.
2.  American mink Neovison vison carcasses were collected as part of an eradication campaign on several islands of the Outer Hebrides, Scotland, and stable isotope analysis was used to describe ecological variation in this invasive non-native predator.
3.  Isotope profiles from individual mink whiskers demonstrated how behaviour at a population level changed markedly over time. As the eradication campaign progressed, mink increased their reliance on marine food sources and focused their activity on the coastline. Stable isotope analyses also demonstrated sex-related changes in foraging and ranging behaviour in relation to food resource availability on the two main island complexes.
4.   Synthesis and applications. Our findings contribute to the refinement of a campaign to extend the successful eradication of mink from Uist and Harris, to the whole of the Outer Hebrides archipelago, UK. They also highlight the potential for stable isotope approaches to provide more detailed postmortem information that can inform adaptive management of wildlife populations for conservation objectives.     

Innovative Technological Approach to Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak Response in Nigeria Using the Open Data Kit and Form Hub Technology

The recent outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) in West Africa has ravaged many lives. Effective containment of this outbreak relies on prompt and effective coordination and communication across various interventions; early detection and response being critical to successful control. The use of information and communications technology (ICT) in active surveillance has proved to be effective but its use in Ebola outbreak response has been limited. Due to the need for timeliness in reporting and communication for early discovery of new EVD cases and promptness in response; it became imperative to empower the response team members with technologies and solutions which would enable smooth and rapid data flow. The Open Data Kit and Form Hub technology were used in combination with the Dashboard technology and ArcGIS mapping for follow up of contacts, identification of cases, case investigation and management and also for strategic planning during the response. A remarkable improvement was recorded in the reporting of daily follow-up of contacts after the deployment of the integrated real time technology. The turnaround time between identification of symptomatic contacts and evacuation to the isolation facility and also for receipt of laboratory results was reduced and informed decisions could be taken by all concerned. Accountability in contact tracing was ensured by the use of a GPS enabled device. The use of innovative technologies in the response of the EVD outbreak in Nigeria contributed significantly to the prompt control of the outbreak and containment of the disease by providing a valuable platform for early warning and guiding early actions.     

Lymphocyte proliferative response to <Emphasis Type="Italic">Helicobacter pylori</Emphasis> antigens in <Emphasis Type="Italic">H. pylori</Emphasis>-infected patients

Helicobacter pylori (Hp) contributes to the development of gastric and extra-gastric diseases such as autoimmune thyroiditis (AT), and causes persistent life-long infection despite local and systemic immune response. We determined the specific cellular immune response to Hp antigens and PWM (control mitogen) in two groups of Hp infected patients - group A (n = 21), involving patients with autoimmune thyroiditis and group B (n = 13) of patients without AT - using modified lymphocyte transformation test before and after eradication therapy in comparison with healthy controls (group C, n = 15). Immune reactivity to the majority of Hp antigens (aHp, hHp, HpAg, CagA) was significantly lower in group B before eradication therapy in comparison with healthy Hp negative controls. A significant increase in immune reactivity was observed in group B to certain Hp antigens after successful eradication. The same levels (but insignificant) of immune reactivity were shown in group A. Our results indicate that Hp can cause the inhibition of the specific cellular immune response in Hp infected patients with or without autoimmune diseases such as AT, which can be abrogated by successful eradication of Hp. Lymphocyte transformation test appears to be a good tool for detection of immune memory cellular response in patients with Hp infection.     

Network theory as a method for developing biosecurity preparedness: Netweork topology of Paratrechina longicornis in the Pacific and within New Zealand

One of the greatest challenges in eradicating pest species is determining when no further individuals remain: terminating the control programme too early means failure to eradicate, whereas continuing for too long can add considerable expense. Since monitoring tools are usually only qualitative and invariably imperfect, there may be considerable uncertainty about when and if eradication has been achieved. However, it is possible to quantify the efficacy of monitoring tools and to use this together with knowledge of the basic ecology of the target pest to robustly quantify the probability of successful eradication over time. Here, I describe one such approach and demonstrate its use in the large-scale eradication of painted apple moth (Teia anartoides) from Auckland, New Zealand. A population model for the production of male moths was used in conjunction with spatially-explicit pheromone trap locations and attraction radii to determine the daily probability of detecting a hypothetical wild population at a particular location. Over time, these probabilities compounded to decrease the likelihood of painted apple moth presence given an ongoing lack of detection. In this way, spatio-temporal risk maps were produced to inform managers and to suggest when eradication had been achieved to a predetermined level of certainty. The model suggested that eradication was likely to have been successful in the main infestation areas by mid 2005, with subsequent catches likely to represent further small incursions, as corroborated by evidence from mitochondrial DNA and stable isotope markers. While it was plausible that a wild population was present in the Otahuhu area in 2005, it was very unlikely that it remained by the end of 2006. Population probability models have potential for much wider use in border biosecurity and establishment of area freedom, particularly in combination with future automated trapping systems.     

Alien fly populations established at two Antarctic research stations

The populations of two non-native Dipterans have been established at two Antarctic research stations since at least 1998. Both belong to Sciaridae (black fungus midge), and have been determined to the genus Lycoriella. At Rothera Research Station, Antarctic Peninsula, flies are present in the station alcohol bond store, while at Casey Station, on the coast of continental Antarctica, a second Lycoriella sp. is found breeding in the station sewage facilities. Neither species is thought capable of surviving outside the protected environment of the research station buildings, but their establishment highlights the need for strict quarantine controls in order for National Operators in the Antarctic to conform to the Environmental Protocol of the Antarctic Treaty and prevent the introduction of alien species into Antarctica. Protocols for fly eradication are currently being implemented.     

Historical diversification of a terra-firme forest bird superspecies: a phylogeographic perspective on the role of different hypotheses of Amazonian diversification

Among those few hypotheses of Amazonian diversification amenable to falsification by phylogenetic and population genetics methods, three can be singled out because of their general application to vertebrates: the riverine barrier, the refuge, and the Miocene marine incursion hypotheses. I used phylogenetic and population genetics methods to reconstruct the diversification history of the upland (terra-firme) forest superspecies Xiphorhynchus spixii/elegans (Aves: Dendrocolaptidae) in Amazonia, and to evaluate predictions of the riverine barrier, refuge, and Miocene marine incursion hypotheses. Phylogeographic and population genetics analyses of the X. spixiilelegans superspecies indicated that the main prediction of the riverine barrier hypothesis (that sister lineages occur across major rivers) hold only for populations separated by "clear-water" rivers located on the Brazilian shield, in central and eastern Amazonia; in contrast, "white-water" rivers located in western Amazonia did not represent areas of primary divergence for populations of this superspecies. The main prediction derived from the refuge hypothesis (that populations of the X. spixii/elegans superspecies would show signs of past population bottlenecks and recent demographic expansions) was supported only for populations found in western Amazonia, where paleoecological data have failed to support past rainforest fragmentation and expansion of open vegetation types; conversely, populations from the eastern and central parts of Amazonia, where paleoecological data are consistent with an historical interplay between rainforest and open vegetation types, did not show population genetics attributes expected under the refuge hypothesis. Phylogeographic and population genetics data were consistent with the prediction made by the Miocene marine incursion hypothesis that populations of the X. spixii/elegans superspecies found on the Brazilian shield were older than populations from other parts of Amazonia. In contrast, the phylogeny obtained for lineages of this superspecies falsified the predicted monophyly of Brazilian shield populations, as postulated by the Miocene marine incursion hypothesis. In general, important predictions of both riverine barrier and Miocene marine incursion hypotheses were supported, indicating that they are not mutually exclusive; in fact, the data presented herein suggest that an interaction among geology, sea level changes, and hydrography created opportunities for cladogenesis in the X. spixii/elegans superspecies at different temporal and geographical scales.     

Inoculation with native soil improves seedling survival and reduces non-native reinvasion in a grassland restoration

Losses of grasslands have been largely attributed to widespread land-use changes, such as conversion to row-crop agriculture. The remaining tallgrass prairie faces further losses due to biological invasions by non-native plant species, often with resultant ecosystem degradation. Of critical concern for conservation, restoration of native grasslands has been met with little success following eradication of non-native plants. In addition to the direct and indirect effects of non-native invasive plants on beneficial soil microbes, management practices targeting invasive species may also negatively affect subsequent restoration efforts. To assess mechanisms limiting germination and survival of native species and to improve native species establishment, we established six replicate plots of each of the following four treatments: (1) inoculated with freshly collected prairie soil with native seeds; (2) inoculated with steam-pasteurized soil with native seeds; (3) noninoculated with native seeds; or (4) noninoculated/nonseeded control. Inoculation with whole soil did not improve seed germination; however, addition of whole soil significantly improved native species survival, compared to pasteurized soil or noninoculated treatments. Inoculation with whole soil significantly decreased reestablishment of non-native invasive Bothriochloa bladhii (Caucasian bluestem); at the end of the growing season, plots receiving whole soil consisted of approximately 30% B. bladhii cover, compared to approximately 80% in plots receiving no soil inoculum. Our results suggest invasion and eradication efforts negatively affect arbuscular mycorrhizal hyphal and spore abundances and soil aggregate stability, and inoculation with locally adapted soil microbial communities can improve metrics of restoration success, including plant species richness and diversity, while decreasing reinvasion by non-native species.     

Development and application of tools for incursion response: Lessons learned from the management of the fouling pest Didemnum vexillum

In October 2001, an unidentified didemnid ascidian, was recorded for the first time in New Zealand, smothering wharf piles and moorings in a northern harbour. A heavily-fouled barge then translocated the ascidian to an international shipping port some 500 km south, near the heart of the New Zealand mussel industry. The species was subsequently identified as Didemnum vexillum, but its status as indigenous or non-indigenous was disputed. Nonetheless, its presence was regarded as a significant threat to the mussel industry because of its demonstrated invasiveness on artificial structures, and its ability to over-grow and smother mussels.From the barge's mooring area, D. vexillum subsequently spread to the seabed beneath, and to nearby vessels and artificial structures (i.e., barges, recreational vessels, moorings, salmon cages and wharf piles). Given the likelihood that infected vectors would spread the ascidian to mussel farms in the region, and in consideration of a benefit-cost analysis, an eradication program for D. vexillum was instigated. This paper provides a chronology of events surrounding the initial detection and spread of the ascidian, and describes the development of incursion response tools for the different substrata that were infected. The treatments included smothering soft-sediment habitats with uncontaminated dredge spoil, wrapping wharf piles with plastic, smothering rip-rap habitats using a geotextile fabric, and various other approaches based on water blasting, air drying or chlorine dosing. While many of the response methods were completely effective at eliminating D. vexillum from different substrata, the program overall failed to eradicate the organism from the region. The reasons for this failure are documented, and the important lessons learned are highlighted, as a contribution to the successful management of invasive species in the future.     

Geographic Tools for Eradication Programs of Insular Non-native Mammals

Non-native mammals are major drivers of ecosystem change and biodiversity loss; this is especially apparent on islands. However, techniques exist to remove non-native mammals, providing a powerful conservation tool. Conservation practitioners are now targeting larger islands for restoration. Leveraging existing and developing new techniques and technologies will prove critical to successful eradications on large islands. Using the removal of introduced goats (Capra hircus) from Santiago Island, Galápagos as a case study, we present a suite of Geographic Information System (GIS) tools that aid island conservation actions. GIS tools were incorporated into the three phases of the eradication campaign: planning, hunting, and monitoring. Further, these tools were adopted for three eradication techniques: ground-based hunting, aerial hunting by helicopter, and Judas goats. These geographic approaches provide a foundation for statistical, spatial, and economic analyses that should increase the capability and efficiency of removal campaigns. Given limited conservation funds and the dire status of many insular species, efficiently removing non-native mammals from islands is of paramount global conservation importance.     

Experimental studies of adaptation in Clarkia xantiana. II. Fitness variation across a subspecies border

Because the range boundary is the locale beyond which a taxon fails to persist, it provides a unique opportunity for studying the limits on adaptive evolution. Adaptive constraints on range expansion are perplexing in view of widespread ecotypic differentiation by habitat and region within a species' range (regional adaptation) and rapid evolutionary response to novel environments. In this study of two parapatric subspecies, Clarkia xantiana ssp. xantiana and C. x. ssp. parviflora, we compared the fitness of population transplants within their native region, in a non-native region within the native range, and in the non-native range to assess whether range expansion might be limited by a greater intensity of selection on colonists of a new range versus a new region within the range. The combined range of the two subspecies spans a west-to-east gradient of declining precipitation in the Sierra Nevada of California, with ssp. xantiana in the west being replaced by ssp. parviflora in the east. Both subspecies had significantly higher fitness in the native range (range adaptation), whereas regional adaptation was weak and was found only in the predominantly outcrossing ssp. xantiana but was absent in the inbreeding ssp. parvifilora. Because selection intensity on transplants was much stronger in the non-native range relative to non-native regions, there is a larger adaptive barrier to range versus regional expansion. Three of five sequential fitness components accounted for regional and range adaptation, but only one of them, survivorship from germination to flowering, contributed to both. Flower number contributed to regional adaptation in ssp. xantiana and fruit set (number of fruits per flower) to range adaptation. Differential survivorship of the two taxa or regional populations of ssp. xantiana in non-native environments was attributable, in part, to biotic interactions, including competition, herbivory, and pollination. For example, low fruit set in ssp. xantiana in the east was likely due to the absence of its principal specialist bee pollinators in ssp. parviflora's range. Thus, convergence on self-fertilization may be necessary for ssp. xantiana to invade ssp. parviflora's range, but the evolution of outcrossing would not be required for ssp. parviflora to invade ssp. xantiana's range.     

Accidental transfer of non-native soil organisms into Antarctica on construction vehicles

Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems currently include very few non-native species, due to the continent’s extreme isolation from other landmasses. However, the indigenous biota is vulnerable to human-mediated introductions of non-native species. In December 2005, four construction vehicles were imported by contractors to the British Antarctic Survey’s (BAS) Rothera Research Station (Antarctic Peninsula) from the Falkland Islands and South Georgia (South Atlantic) on board RRS James Clark Ross. The vehicles were contaminated with >132 kg of non-Antarctic soil that contained viable non-native angiosperms, bryophytes, micro-invertebrates, nematodes, fungi, bacteria, and c. 40,000 seeds and numerous moss propagules. The incident was a significant contravention of BAS operating procedures, the UK Antarctic Act (1994) and the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty (1998), which all prohibit the introduction of non-native species to Antarctica without an appropriate permit. The introduction of this diverse range of species poses a significant threat to local biodiversity should any of the species become established, particularly as the biota of sub-Antarctic South Georgia is likely to include many species with appropriate pre-adaptations facilitating the colonisation of more extreme Antarctic environments. Once the incident was discovered, the imported soil was removed immediately from Antarctica and destroyed. Vehicle cleaning and transportation guidelines have been revised to enhance the biosecurity of BAS operations, and to minimise the risk of similar incidents occurring.     

The Apparent Eradication of a Locally Established Introduced Marine Pest

Once a marine invader has become established, its subsequent control has rarely been attempted. We report the first apparently successful eradication of a locally well-established introduced marine pest. A previously unknown species of sabellid polychaete (now described as Terebrasabella heterouncinata arrived as an epizoic contaminant on South African abalone imported to California for commercial aquaculture research. In 1996, we detected an established sabellid population at an intertidal site near Cayucos, California (35 °45'N, 120 °95'W). To mitigate the impact of this introduced marine pest at this site, and prevent or slow its geographic spread, we proposed an eradication program based on the epidemiological theory of the threshold of transmission. Specifically, we removed 1.6 million of the most highly susceptible and preferred host in the intertidal area; the black turban snail, Tegula funebralis. A screen was also installed at the associated abalone mariculture facility to eliminate release of additional infested material (the source of the established sabellid population) and all such material was removed from the intertidal area. Using transect surveys and mark and recapture studies, we monitored the success of the eradication effort. Transmission of the pest can no longer be detected. Hence, the established sabellid population has apparently been eradicated. This discovery demonstrates that some alien marine pests can be eradicated and supports development of new proactive approaches to the management of other exotic marine pests.     

Surveillance protocols for management of invasive plants: modelling Chilean needle grass (Nassella neesiana) in Australia

Aim To develop a surveillance support model that enables prediction of areas susceptible to invasion, comparative analysis of surveillance methods and intensity and assessment of eradication feasibility. To apply the model to identify surveillance protocols for generalized invasion scenarios and for evaluating surveillance and control for a context‐specific plant invasion. Location Australia. Methods We integrate a spatially explicit simulation model, including plant demography and dispersal vectors, within a Geographical Information System. We use the model to identify effective surveillance protocols using simulations of generalized plant life‐forms spreading via different dispersal mechanisms in real landscapes. We then parameterize the surveillance support model for Chilean needle grass [CNG; Nassella neesiana (Trin. & Rupr.) Barkworth], a highly invasive tussock grass, which is an eradication target in south‐eastern Queensland, Australia. Results General surveillance protocols that can guide rapid response surveillance were identified; suitable habitat that is susceptible to invasion through particular dispersal syndromes should be targeted for surveillance using an adaptive seek‐and‐destroy method. The search radius of the adaptive method should be based on maximum expected dispersal distances. Protocols were used to define a surveillance strategy for CNG, but simulations indicated that despite effective and targeted surveillance, eradication is implausible at current intensities. Main conclusions Several important surveillance protocols emerged and simulations indicated that effectiveness can be increased if they are followed in rapid response surveillance. If sufficient data are available, the surveillance support model should be parameterized to target areas susceptible to invasion and determine whether surveillance is effective and eradication is feasible. We discovered that for CNG, regardless of a carefully designed surveillance strategy, eradication is implausible at current intensities of surveillance and control and these efforts should be doubled if they are to be successful. This is crucial information in the face of environmentally and economically damaging invasive species and large, expensive and potentially ineffective control programmes.     

Predator naïve minnows respond to their conspecific alarm substance but not the odour from a non-native predator

When exposed to predator cues, ostariophysan fishes exhibit short-term anti-predator behavioural responses in order to minimise predation risk. Non-native predator cues are, however, likely to elicit poor behavioural responses in native prey fishes. This study investigated whether chubbyhead barb Enteromius anoplus, a native freshwater minnow in South Africa, had the innate ability to recognise and respond to largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides, a non-native piscivore. This was experimentally evaluated by investigating behavioural responses to both the non-native predator's odour and damage-released conspecific alarm substance (CAS). Chubbyhead barbs did not exhibit any behavioural response to largemouth bass odour both before and after exposure to CAS. This suggests that the chubbyhead barbs likely lacked the innate ability to recognise the non-native largemouth bass predator kairomones. By comparison, exposure to CAS was associated with significant behavioural responses, with chubbyhead barbs shifting from free-swimming to hovering, and frequent use of refugia. This suggests that despite ineffective response to non-native largemouth bass odour, chubbyhead barbs responded to general predator attack. Overall, this study suggests the potential for non-native largemouth bass to induce negative consumptive effects on chubbyhead barbs due to their inability to identify non-native predator's odour. In addition, nonconsumptive effects are likely due to altered activities in response to predator attack.     

Poa pratensis L., current status of the longest-established non-native vascular plant in the Antarctic

A single colony of the non-native grass Poa pratensis L., which was introduced inadvertently to Cierva Point, Antarctic Peninsula, during the 1954–1955 season, was still present during a survey in February 2012, making it the longest surviving non-native vascular plant colony known in Antarctica. Since 1991, the grass cover has roughly tripled in size, with an annual increase in area of approximately 0.016 m², and an estimated maximum radial growth rate of 1.43 cm y^?1. However, it remains restricted to the original site of introduction and its immediate surroundings (c. 1 m²). Annual flowering of the plants occurred during the 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 seasons; however, there has been no seed production and only incomplete development of the sexual structures. Current environmental conditions, including low temperatures, may inhibit sexual reproduction. Lack of effective vegetative dispersal may be influenced by the low level of human activity at the site, which limits opportunities for human-mediated dispersal. Although P. pratensis has existed at Cierva Point for almost 60 years, it has not yet become invasive. Scenarios for the potential future development of the species in Antarctica and the associated negative impacts upon the native vegetation from competition are discussed in the context of regional climate change. Finally, we describe the environmental risk presented by P. pratensis and argue that this non-native species should be eradicated as soon as possible in accordance with the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty.