Testing metapopulation dynamics using genetic, demographic and ecological data

The metapopulation concept is a cornerstone in the recent history of ecology and evolution. However, determining whether a natural system fits a metapopulation model is a complex issue. Extinction-colonization dynamics are indeed often difficult to quantify because species detectability is not always 100%, resulting in an imperfect record of extinctions. Here, we explore whether combining population genetics with demographic and ecological surveys can yield more realistic estimates of metapopulation dynamics. We apply this approach to the freshwater snail Drepanotrema depressissimum in a fragmented landscape of tropical ponds. In addition to studying correlations between genetic diversity and demographical or ecological characteristics, we undertake, for the first time, a detailed search for genetic signatures of extinction-recolonization events using temporal changes in allele frequencies within sites. Surprisingly, genetic data indicate that extinction is much rarer than suggested by demographic surveys. Consequently, this system is better described as a set of populations with different sizes and immigration rates than as a true metapopulation. We identify several cases of apparent extinction owing to nondetection of low-density populations, and of aestivating individuals in desiccated ponds. More generally, we observed a frequent mismatch between genetic and demographical/ecological information at small spatial and temporal scales. We discuss the causes of these discrepancies and show how these two types of data provide complementary information on population dynamics and history, especially when temporal genetic samples are available.     

The effects of spontaneous mutation on competitive fitness in Drosophila melanogaster

Abstract We have analysed the effect of 288 generations of mutation accumulation (MA) on chromosome II competitive fitness in 21 full‐sib lines of Drosophila melanogaster and in a large control population, all derived from the same isogenic base. The rate of mean log‐fitness decline and that of increase of the between‐line variance were consistent with a low rate (λ ≈ 0.03 per gamete and generation), and moderate average fitness effect [E(s) ≈ 0.1] of deleterious mutation. Subsequently, crosses were made between pairs of MA lines, and these were maintained with effective size on the order of a few tens. In these crosses, MA recombinant chromosomes quickly recovered to about the average fitness level of control chromosomes. Thus, deleterious mutations responsible for the fitness decline were efficiently selected against in relatively small populations, confirming that their effects were larger than a few percent.     

Community relaxation in fragmented landscapes: the relation between species richness, area and age

Estimates of species loss due to habitat destruction are normally based on calculations employing the species–area relation, S = cA ^z . The validity of this approach is based on the assumption that the value of the exponent ( z ) defining the slope of the species–area relation in nonfragmented communities is at a steady state and that z is thus a constant. However, departure from such an assumption renders this approach unreliable. Here I report the results from a natural field experiment using "model" bryophyte-based microlandscapes designed to follow the species richness dynamics of microarthropod communities postfragmentation. Community isolation due to fragmentation initiated a delayed community relaxation process and resulted in substantial local extinction. Over the period of the experiment z declined in the control communities and yet remained fairly stable in the fragmented communities. I conclude that predictions of species loss due to habitat fragmentation that do not take into account the fact that often z may not be a constant may lead to error-prone predictions of future species loss.     

How interactions between animal movement and landscape processes modify local range dynamics and extinction risk

Forecasts of range dynamics now incorporate many of the mechanisms and interactions that drive species distributions. However, connectivity continues to be simulated using overly simple distance-based dispersal models with little consideration of how the individual behaviour of dispersing organisms interacts with landscape structure (functional connectivity). Here, we link an individual-based model to a niche-population model to test the implications of this omission. We apply this novel approach to a turtle species inhabiting wetlands which are patchily distributed across a tropical savannah, and whose persistence is threatened by two important synergistic drivers of global change: predation by invasive species and overexploitation. We show that projections of local range dynamics in this study system change substantially when functional connectivity is modelled explicitly. Accounting for functional connectivity in model simulations causes the estimate of extinction risk to increase, and predictions of range contraction to slow. We conclude that models of range dynamics that simulate functional connectivity can reduce an important source of bias in predictions of shifts in species distributions and abundances, especially for organisms whose dispersal behaviours are strongly affected by landscape structure.     

Metapopulation extinction in fragmented landscapes: using bacteria and protozoa communities as model ecosystems

Extinction is notoriously difficult to study because of the long timescales involved and the difficulty in ascertaining that extinction has actually occurred. The effect of habitat subdivision, or fragmentation, on extinction risk is even harder to study, as it requires copious replication of habitat patches on large spatial scales and control of area effects between treatments. I used simple small-scale communities of bacteria and protozoa to study extinction in response to habitat loss and habitat fragmentation. I studied several different community configurations, each with three trophic levels. Unlike most metapopulation studies (experimental as well as theoretical), which have tended to deal with inherently unstable species interactions, I deliberately used community configurations that were persistent in large stock cultures. I recorded the time to extinction of the top predator in single habitat patches of different sizes and in fragmented systems with different degrees of subdivision but the same amount of available habitat. Habitat loss reduced the time to extinction of isolated populations. Fragmented systems went extinct sooner than corresponding unfragmented (continuous) systems of the same overall size. Unfragmented populations persisted longer than fragmented systems (metapopulations) with or without dispersal corridors between subpopulations. In fact, fragmented systems where the fragments were linked by dispersal corridors went extinctly significantly sooner than those where subpopulations were completely isolated from each other. If these results extend to more "natural" systems, it suggests a need for caution in management programs that emphasize widespread establishment of wildlife corridors in fragmented landscapes.     

Fatal disease and demographic Allee effect: population persistence and extinction

If a healthy stable host population at the disease-free equilibrium is subject to the Allee effect, can a small number of infected individuals with a fatal disease cause the host population to go extinct? That is, does the Allee effect matter at high densities? To answer this question, we use a susceptible–infected epidemic model to obtain model parameters that lead to host population persistence (with or without infected individuals) and to host extinction. We prove that the presence of an Allee effect in host demographics matters even at large population densities. We show that a small perturbation to the disease-free equilibrium can eventually lead to host population extinction. In addition, we prove that additional deaths due to a fatal infectious disease effectively increase the Allee threshold of the host population demographics.     

Scale-dependent interactions between intrinsic and extrinsic processes reduce variability in protist populations

Interactions between intrinsic processes and extrinsic fluctuations can positively impact population persistence in ways often not predicted by classic ecological models. These interactions only arise when the intrinsic and extrinsic processes operate on the proper relative scales in time or space. Both metapopulation theory and resonance/attenuation theory suggest that interactions which lower population variability will occur when the intrinsic and extrinsic process occur on similar time scales. I performed an aquatic protist microcosm experiment to investigate how the relative frequencies of extrinsic density perturbations and intrinsic resource pulses impacted population variability. Population variability was lowest in the treatments of intermediate frequency, in which the extrinsic fluctuations and intrinsic processes were on the same time scale. This result is consistent with general theoretical predictions, and empirically documents the importance of considering scale in interactions between intrinsic and extrinsic processes that positively impact population persistence.     

Migration load in plants: role of pollen and seed dispersal in heterogeneous landscapes

Evolution of local adaptation depends critically on the level of gene flow, which, in plants, can be due to either pollen or seed dispersal. Using analytical predictions and individual-centred simulations, we investigate the specific influence of seed and pollen dispersal on local adaptation in plant populations growing in patchy heterogeneous landscapes. We study the evolution of a polygenic trait subject to stabilizing selection within populations, but divergent selection between populations. Deviations from linkage equilibrium and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium make different contributions to genotypic variance depending on the dispersal mode. Local genotypic variance, differentiation between populations and genetic load vary with the rate of gene flow but are similar for seed and pollen dispersal, unless the landscape is very heterogeneous. In this case, genetic load is higher in the case of pollen dispersal, which appears to be due to differences in the distribution of genotypic values before selection.     

Simulating direct and indirect effects of climatic changes on rare perennial plant species in fragmented landscapes

Question: How does climate change influence plant species population dynamics, their time to extinction, and proportion of occupied habitats in a fragmented landscape? Location: Germany and Central European lowland. Methods: We apply a mechanistic general simulation model to test the response of plant functional types to direct and indirect effects of climate change. Three functional types were chosen to represent a set of well‐studied perennial plant species: Juncus atratus, Gentiana pneumonanthe and Primula veris. We link local population dynamics within a heterogeneous, fragmented landscape context. “Species spheres”, i.e. multi‐dimensional parameter ranges rather than single parameter realizations, based on field and literature data served as proxy for life stage transition parameters. Four climatic scenarios summarizing different cumulative weather effects on demographic rates and different local disturbance frequencies were run. The model predicts “time to extinction” (TE) and “proportion of occupied habitat” (POH) as regional indicators for species extinction risk. Results: TE decreased for all species when weather conditions worsened, and even more so when the frequency of local destructive events additionally increased. However, management towards fewer disturbance events could buffer the negative effect of climate to some extent. The magnitude of these responses varied with species type. POH declined with an increase in bad weather as well as with increasing disturbance frequency. The better the climatic conditions, the less severe were disturbances on population performance. Conclusions: The “species spheres” proved to be a valuable approach for predictive trends. As climate change usually also implies destructive events such as land‐use change, flooding or fire, our model on local and regional extinction risks can support conservation issues and management actions.     

Metapopulation dynamics: brief history and conceptual domain

We review the early development of metapopulation ideas, which culminated in the well-known model by Levins in 1969. We present a survey of metapopulation terminology and outline the kinds of studies that have been conducted on single-species and multispecies metapopulations. Metapopulation studies have important conceptual links with the equilibrium theory of island biogeography and with studies on the dynamics of species living in patchy environments. Metapopulation ideas play an increasingly important role in landscape ecology and conservation biology.     

Fitness-dependent dispersal in metapopulations and its consequences for persistence and synchrony

1. We present a novel metapopulation model where dispersal is fitness dependent: the strength of migration from a site is dependent on the expected reproductive fitness of individuals there. Furthermore, individuals continue to migrate until they reach a suitable habitat where their expected fitness is above a threshold value.
2. Fitness-dependent dispersal has a very strong stabilizing effect on population dynamics, even when the intrinsic dynamics of populations in the absence of dispersal exhibit complex high-amplitude oscillations. This stabilizing effect is much stronger than that of the density-independent dispersal normally considered in metapopulation models.
3. Even when fitness-dependent dispersal does not stabilize the dynamics in a formal sense, it generally leads to simplification, with complex or even chaotic fluctuations being reduced to simple cycles.
4. This form of dispersal also has a strong tendency to synchronize local population dynamics across the spatial extent of the metapopulation.
5. These conclusions are robust to the addition of strong stochasticity in the migration threshold.     

Relation between temporal persistence of host plants and wing length in leafhoppers (Hemiptera: Auchenorrhyncha)

Abstract.

• 1 Wing form frequencies in 255 populations of 101 species of leafhoppers (Auchenorrhyncha) in temporary and permanent habitats were documented.
• 2 The proportion of brachypterous specimens in the leafhopper assemblages on ruderal host plants in temporary habitats (median 2%, range 0–8%) was significantly lower than that on permanent host plants in undisturbed habitats (median 22%, range 0–94%).
• 3 Leafhopper species typical of temporary habitats were either monomorphic, macropterous, or wing-dimorphic with macropterous forms prevailing in both sexes.
• 4 Among the eighty-nine species recorded in permanent habitats, forty-five species were wing dimorphic. In forty-one dimorphic species, a brachypterous form prevailed. This prevalence was found for both sexes in thirty-one species, for only females in nine species and for only males in one species.
• 5 The prevalence of brachypters in males, but not in females, found in Anoscopus flavostriatus, is probably the first such documented case in Auchenorrhyncha.
• 6 The hypothesis is proposed that in temporary habitats, density-dependent production of macropters in wing dimorphic species is an adaptation to frequent habitat deterioration caused by factors independent of the density of the species.
• 7 The predominance of brachypters in permanent habitats indicates that a density-dependent decrease in fitness usually does not offset the potential decrease in fitness connected with macroptery and dispersal. Because of this inability of leafhopper populations to decrease significantly the quality of their resources, a high population density cannot be used as a predictor of future quality of these resources, which is information essential for efficient dispersal behaviour.