The biogeography of prediction error: why does the introduced range of the fire ant over‐predict its native range?

Aim The use of species distribution models (SDMs) to predict biological invasions is a rapidly developing area of ecology. However, most studies investigating SDMs typically ignore prediction errors and instead focus on regions where native distributions correctly predict invaded ranges. We investigated the ecological significance of prediction errors using reciprocal comparisons between the predicted invaded and native range of the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta) (hereafter called the fire ant). We questioned whether fire ants occupy similar environments in their native and introduced range, how the environments that fire ants occupy in their introduced range changed through time relative to their native range, and where fire ant propagules are likely to have originated. Location We developed models for South America and the conterminous United States (US) of America. Methods We developed models using the Genetic Algorithm for Rule‐set Prediction (GARP) and 12 environmental layers. Occurrence data from the native range in South America were used to predict the introduced range in the US and vice versa. Further, time‐series data recording the invasion of fire ants in the US were used to predict the native range. Results Native range occurrences under‐predicted the invasive potential of fire ants, whereas occurrence data from the US over‐predicted the southern boundary of the native range. Secondly, introduced fire ants initially established in environments similar to those in their native range, but subsequently invaded harsher environments. Time‐series data suggest that fire ant propagules originated near the southern limit of their native range. Conclusions Our findings suggest that fire ants from a peripheral native population established in an environment similar to their native environment, and then ultimately expanded into environments in which they are not found in their native range. We argue that reciprocal comparisons between predicted native and invaded ranges will facilitate a better understanding of the biogeography of invasive and native species and of the role of SDMs in predicting future distributions.     

Using ecological niche modelling to evaluate niche stability in deep time

Aim To investigate relative niche stability in species responses to various types of environmental pressure (biotic and abiotic) on geological time‐scales using the fossil record. Location The case study focuses on Late Ordovician articulate brachiopods of the Cincinnati Arch in eastern North America. Methods Species niches were modelled for a suite of fossil brachiopod species based on five environmental variables inferred from sedimentary parameters using GARP and Maxent . Niche stability was assessed by comparison of (1) the degree of overlap of species distribution models developed for a time‐slice and those generated by projecting niche models of the previous time‐slice onto environmental layers of a second time‐slice using GARP and Maxent , (2) Schoener’s D statistic, and (3) the similarity of the contribution of each environmental parameter within Maxent niche models between adjacent time‐slices. Results Late Ordovician brachiopod species conserved their niches with high fidelity during intervals of gradual environmental change but responded to inter‐basinal species invasions through niche evolution. Both native and invasive species exhibited similar levels of niche evolution in the invasion and post‐invasion intervals. Niche evolution was related mostly to decreased variance within the former ecological niche parameters rather than to shifts to new ecospace. Main conclusions Although the species examined exhibited morphological stasis during the study interval, high levels of niche conservatism were observed only during intervals of gradual environmental change. Rapid environmental change, notably inter‐basinal species invasions, resulted in high levels of niche evolution among the focal taxa. Both native and invasive species responded with similar levels of niche evolution during the invasion interval and subsequent environmental reorganization. The assumption of complete niche conservatism frequently employed in ecological niche modelling (ENM) analyses to forecast or hindcast species geographical distributions is more likely to be accurate for climate change studies than for invasive species analyses over geological time‐scales.     

Environmental suitability of new reported localities of the funnelweb spider Macrothele calpeiana: an assessment using potential distribution modelling with presence‐only techniques

Aim The funnelweb spider Macrothele calpeiana is endemic to the southern half of the Iberian Peninsula, but recent occurrence records from localities in Spain, North Africa and other regions of Europe, which are distant from its native populations, suggest human‐mediated dispersal, probably associated with the commercial export of olive trees. The main goal of this study was to assess the environmental suitability of these new records and to discuss the spider’s potential to become an invasive species, mainly in new regions across Central Europe and the Mediterranean Basin. Location Central Europe, Mediterranean Basin. Methods Using presence points from the Iberian native populations of M. calpeiana and a set of climatic variables, four presence‐only algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, GARP and Maxent) were applied to model the potential distribution of the spider. The models were transferred to Central Europe and the Mediterranean Basin, and the locations of the new records in both the occupied and potential environmental spaces were screened. Results The four models were generally congruent in predicting the existence of a suitable climate for the species across the Mediterranean Basin, although BIOCLIM and DOMAIN yielded more constrained predictions than GARP and Maxent. Whereas the new records from Central Europe were located far from the occupied and potential climatic spaces, those from the Iberian Peninsula were not. Main conclusions Climatic suitability together with propagule pressure owing to human activities will certainly enhance the opportunities for M. calpeiana to colonize new areas across the Mediterranean Basin. The species has invaded areas beyond its native range, and those new locations located in the Iberian Peninsula and North Africa show environmental suitability for the spider and deserve long‐term monitoring. Although the new locations in Central Europe were not predicted by the climate models and the persistence of the species seems improbable, the possibility of rapid evolution or phenotypic plasticity processes raises the need for caution over the possibility of a future spread of M. calpeiana across Europe. Stronger controls over the transport of trees must be applied, and further studies on the ecology of the spider are imperative to assess the possible impact on the invaded ecosystems.     

Thermogeography predicts the potential global range of the invasive European green crab (Carcinus maenas)

Aim The highly adaptable estuarine crab (Carcinus maenas) has successfully invaded five temperate geographic regions outside of its native Europe. Here, we determine which environmental factors predict the current distribution of C. maenas and what the potential geographic range of this species might be. We also investigated whether the invasion potential of C. maenas differs with respect to the origin of a native subpopulation. Location Models were developed using global observation records of C. maenas. Methods Boosted regression trees were used to model observations from the (1) native, (2) invasive, (3) southern European, (4) northern European and (5) the combined native and invasive geographic ranges of C. maenas. Results Most established invasions were predicted mainly based on temperature. Interestingly, the environment encountered by established invasions failed to predict the majority of northern European populations; suggesting that invasion potential may differ between distinct native populations. Supporting this suggestion, a model of northern European populations, distinguished from southern European populations based on genetic structure, only predicted established invasions south of Nova Scotia. By contrast, a model of southern European populations predicted most established invasions. Main conclusions These results suggest that invasion potential depends on the European origin of an invasive population and that most invasions have arisen from southern Europe. Finally, a model based on combined native and invasive ranges of C. maenas identified potential geographic range extension along many currently invaded coastlines and the potential invasion of countries like Chile, China, Russia, Namibia and New Zealand.     

Niche dynamics of two cryptic <Emphasis Type="Italic">Prosopis</Emphasis> invading South American drylands

Whether or not species track native climatic conditions during invasions (i.e., climate match hypothesis) is fundamental to understand and prevent potential impacts of invasive species. Recent empirical work suggests that climatic mismatches between native and invasive ranges are pervasive. Whether these differences are due to adaptation to new climatic spaces in the invasive range or due to partial filling of the potential climatic space are still subject to debate. Here, we analyze climatic niche dynamics associated with the invasion of the two most common invasive plants in Brazilian semi-arid areas, Prosopis juliflora and Prosopis pallida. These species have been simultaneously introduced in the region, which creates a unique opportunity to compare their niche dynamics during invasion. Given that P. juliflora have a much wider native range size, we expect these species would present different dispersal potentials, which might translate into different unfilling levels. Using an ordination method with kernel smoother and null models, we contrasted climate spaces occupied by each species in both native and invasive ranges. We further used ecological niche models (ENMs) to compare reciprocal predictions of potentially suitable areas. Against our expectation based on differences in native range sizes, climatic niches of P. juliflora and P. pallida overlapped greatly, both in their native and invasive ranges. Our results support niche conservatism during the invasion process. Climatic mismatches among native and invaded ranges were exclusively attributed to unfilling of native climates in the invasive range. Both species showed similar unfilling levels. Likewise, ENMs predicted regions not yet occupied in the invasive range, revealing a potential for further expansion. We discuss colonization time lag and founder effect as potential mechanisms that may have prevented these species to fully occupy their native niches in the invasive range.     

Getting here from there: testing the genetic paradigm underpinning introduction histories and invasion success

Aim To explore the potential of genetic processes and mating systems to influence successful plant invasions, we compared genetic diversity of the highly invasive tropical treelet, Miconia calvescens, in nine invasive populations and three native range populations. Specifically, we tested how genetic diversity is partitioned in native and invaded regions, which have different invasion histories (multiple vs. single introductions). Lastly, we infer how levels of inbreeding in different regions impact invasion success. Location Invaded ranges in the Pacific (Hawaii, Tahiti, New Caledonia) and Australia and native range in Costa Rica. Methods Genetic diversity was inferred by analysing variation at nine microsatellite loci in 273 individuals from 13 populations of M. calvescens. Genetic structure was assessed using amova , isolation by distance (IBD) within regions, a Bayesian clustering approach, and principal coordinates analysis. Results Microsatellite analysis revealed that invaded regions exhibit low levels of allelic richness and genetic diversity with few private alleles. To the contrary, in the native range, we observed high levels of allelic richness, high heterozygosity and 78% of all private alleles. Surprisingly, despite evident genetic bottlenecks in all invasive regions, similarly high levels of inbreeding were detected in both invasive and native ranges (F_IS: 0.345 and 0.399, respectively). Bayesian clustering analysis showed a lack of geographical structure in the Pacific and evidence of differing invasion histories between the Pacific and Australia. While Pacific populations are derived from a single introduction to the region, multiple introductions have taken place in Australia from different source regions. Main conclusions Multiple introductions have not resulted in increased genetic diversity for M. calvescens invasions. Moreover, similar inbreeding levels between native and invaded ranges suggests that there is no correlation between levels of inbreeding and levels of standing genetic diversity for M. calvescens. Overall, our results show that neither inbreeding nor low genetic diversity is an impediment to invasion success.     

Native range climate is insufficient to predict anuran invasive potential

Niche conservatism explains biological invasions worldwide. However, a plethora of ecological processes may lead invasive species to occupy environments that are different from those found within native ranges. Here, we assess the potential invadable areas of  the world’s most pervasive invasive amphibians: the cane toad, Rhinella marina?+?R. horribilis, and the North American bullfrog, Lithobates catesbeianus. The uncontrolled spread of such voracious, large-bodied, and disease-tolerant anurans has been documented to impact native faunas worldwide. To disentangle their invasion-related niche dynamics, we compared the predictive ability and distributional forecasts of ecological niche models calibrated with information from native, invaded and pooled (native?+?invaded) ranges. We found that including occurrences from invaded ranges improved model accuracy for both studied species. Non-native occurrences also accounted for 54% and 61% increase in the total area of potential distribution of the cane toad and bullfrog, respectively. Besides, the latter species occupied locations with climatic conditions that are more extreme than those found within its native range. Our results indicate that the occupancy of environments different from those found in native ranges increases the overall potential distribution of the studied invasive anuran species. Therefore, climate information on native ranges alone is insufficient to explain and anticipate the distributional patterns of invasion of cane toads and bullfrogs, underestimating predictions of potential invadable distribution. Moreover, such an observed expansion of realized niches towards occupancy of climates not found within native ranges also has clear implications for invasion risk assessments based on climate modelling worldwide.

     

Deciphering the worldwide invasion of the Asian long‐horned beetle: A recurrent invasion process from the native area together with a bridgehead effect

Retracing introduction routes is crucial for understanding the evolutionary processes involved in an invasion, as well as for highlighting the invasion history of a species at the global scale. The Asian long‐horned beetle (ALB) Anoplophora glabripennis is a xylophagous pest native to Asia and invasive in North America and Europe. It is responsible for severe losses of urban trees, in both its native and invaded ranges. Based on historical and genetic data, several hypotheses have been formulated concerning its invasion history, including the possibility of multiple introductions from the native zone and secondary dispersal within the invaded areas, but none have been formally tested. In this study, we characterized the genetic structure of ALB in both its native and invaded ranges using microsatellites. In order to test different invasion scenarios, we used an approximate Bayesian “random forest” algorithm together with traditional population genetics approaches. The strong population differentiation observed in the native area was not geographically structured, suggesting complex migration events that were probably human‐mediated. Both native and invasive populations had low genetic diversity, but this characteristic did not prevent the success of the ALB invasions. Our results highlight the complexity of invasion pathways for insect pests. Specifically, our findings indicate that invasive species might be repeatedly introduced from their native range, and they emphasize the importance of multiple, human‐mediated introductions in successful invasions. Finally, our results demonstrate that invasive species can spread across continents following a bridgehead path, in which an invasive population may have acted as a source for another invasion.     

Niche conservatism and spread of seaweed invasive lineages with different residence time in the Mediterranean Sea

Marine algae invasions attract a lot of interest as they are altering the structure of marine ecosystems. However, niche dynamics and risk predictions of marine invasions integrating phylogeographic structure in the analyses have not yet been investigated. In this study, we perform a comprehensive analysis of two invasive lineages of Caulerpa taxifolia with different residence time in the Mediterranean Sea for a better understanding of their invasive processes. We performed lineage-based and species-based niche models to assess the risk of invasion, the spatial overlap, and the variables delimiting the distribution of the two lineages. We also compared the effect of using different extents on niche overlap and niche shift analyses. Intraspecific models with pooled occurrences accurately found two separate regions susceptible of invasion for each invasive lineage in the Mediterranean, while species-based predictions underestimated invaded regions. The invasive lineages spread across colder coastal areas than the species. Altogether, we provide evidence that different invasive lineages of algae show dissimilar environmental responses and invasive ranges that are not detectable by species-based analyses. Moreover, niche overlap and niche shift analyses seem to depend greatly on the geographical extent used. According to the most appropriate extent (worldwide), the invaded range did not show niche shift, and thus, no evidence of a post-introduction adaptation scenario was found as both lineages invaded habitats similar to their Australian native locations. Actions to prevent further spreading of the most recent invasive lineage are needed.     

Climate change increases risk of plant invasion in the Eastern United States

Invasive plant species threaten native ecosystems, natural resources, and managed lands worldwide. Climate change may increase risk from invasive plant species as favorable climate conditions allow invaders to expand into new ranges. Here, we use bioclimatic envelope modeling to assess current climatic habitat, or lands climatically suitable for invasion, for three of the most dominant and aggressive invasive plants in the southeast United States: kudzu (Pueraria lobata), privet (Ligustrum sinense; L. vulgare), and cogongrass (Imperata cylindrica). We define climatic habitat using both the Maxent and Mahalanobis distance methodologies, and we define the best climatic predictors based on variables that best ‘constrain’ species distributions and variables that ‘release’ the most land area if excluded. We then use an ensemble of 12 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models to project changes in climatic habitat for the three invasive species by 2100. The combined methodologies, predictors, and models produce a robust assessment of invasion risk inclusive of many of the approaches typically used individually to assess climate change impacts. Current invasion risk is widespread in southeastern states for all three species, although cogongrass invasion risk is more restricted to the Gulf Coast. Climate change is likely to enable all three species to greatly expand their ranges. Risk from privet and kudzu expands north into Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, and New England states by 2100. Risk from cogongrass expands as far north as Kentucky and Virginia. Heightened surveillance and prompt eradication of small pockets of invasion in northern states should be a management priority.     

Modeling potential invasion range of alien invasive species,Hyptis suaveolens (L.) Poit. in India: Comparison of MaxEnt and GARP

Bushmint (Hyptis suaveolens (L.) Poit.) is one among the world's most noxious weeds. Bushmint is rapidly invading tropical ecosystems across the world, including India, and is major threat to native biodiversity, ecosystems and livelihoods. Knowledge about the likely areas under bushmint invasion has immense importance for taking rapid response and mitigation measures. In the present study, we model the potential invasion range of bushmint in India and investigate prediction capabilities of two popular species distribution models (SDM) viz., MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) and GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production). We compiled spatial layers on 22 climatic and non-climatic (soil type and land use land cover) environmental variables at India level and selected least correlated 14 predictor variables. 530 locations of bushmint along with 14 predictor variables were used to predict bushmint distribution using MaxEnt and GARP. We demonstrate the relative contribution of predictor variables and species-environmental linkages in modeling bushmint distribution. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess each model's performance and robustness. GARP had a relatively lower area under curve (AUC) score (AUC: 0.75), suggesting its lower ability in discriminating the suitable/unsuitable sites. Relative to GARP, MaxEnt performed better with an AUC value of 0.86. Overall the outputs of MaxEnt and GARP matched in terms of geographic regions predicted as suitable/unsuitable for bushmint in India, however, predictions were closer in the spatial extent in Central India and Western Himalayan foothills compared to North-East India, Chottanagpur and Vidhayans and Deccan Plateau in India.     

Predicting current and future biological invasions: both native and invaded ranges matter

The classical approach to predicting the geographical extent of species invasions consists of training models in the native range and projecting them in distinct, potentially invasible areas. However, recent studies have demonstrated that this approach could be hampered by a change of the realized climatic niche, allowing invasive species to spread into habitats in the invaded ranges that are climatically distinct from those occupied in the native range. We propose an alternative approach that involves fitting models with pooled data from all ranges. We show that this pooled approach improves prediction of the extent of invasion of spotted knapweed (Centaurea maculosa) in North America on models based solely on the European native range. Furthermore, it performs equally well on models based on the invaded range, while ensuring the inclusion of areas with similar climate to the European niche, where the species is likely to spread further. We then compare projections from these models for 2080 under a severe climate warming scenario. Projections from the pooled models show fewer areas of intermediate climatic suitability than projections from the native or invaded range models, suggesting a better consensus among modelling techniques and reduced uncertainty.     

Transferability and model evaluation in ecological niche modeling: a comparison of GARP and Maxent

We compared predictive success in two common algorithms for modeling species' ecological niches, GARP and Maxent, in a situation that challenged the algorithms to be general – that is, to be able to predict the species' distributions in broad unsampled regions, here termed transferability. The results were strikingly different between the two algorithms – Maxent models reconstructed the overall distributions of the species at low thresholds, but higher predictive levels of Maxent predictions reflected overfitting to the input data; GARP models, on the other hand, succeeded in anticipating most of the species' distributional potential, at the cost of increased (apparent, at least) commission error. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) tests were weak in discerning models able to predict into broad unsampled areas from those that were not. Such transferability is clearly a novel challenge for modeling algorithms, and requires different qualities than does predicting within densely sampled landscapes – in this case, Maxent was transferable only at very low thresholds, and biases and gaps in input data may frequently affect results based on higher Maxent thresholds, requiring careful interpretation of model results.     

Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion

Niche-based models calibrated in the native range by relating species observations to climatic variables are commonly used to predict the potential spatial extent of species' invasion. This climate matching approach relies on the assumption that invasive species conserve their climatic niche in the invaded ranges. We test this assumption by analysing the climatic niche spaces of Spotted Knapweed in western North America and Europe. We show with robust cross-continental data that a shift of the observed climatic niche occurred between native and non-native ranges, providing the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. The models fail to predict the current invaded distribution, but correctly predict areas of introduction. Climate matching is thus a useful approach to identify areas at risk of introduction and establishment of newly or not-yet-introduced neophytes, but may not predict the full extent of invasions.     

From Asian curiosity to eruptive American pest: Megacopta cribraria (Hemiptera: Plataspidae) and prospects for its biological control

The kudzu bug or bean plataspid, Megacopta cribraria (Fabricius), is native to Asia where it appears to be widely distributed (although the taxonomy is not entirely clear), but is infrequently a pest of legumes. This bug appeared in 2009 in the southeastern United States, where it is closely associated with kudzu, Pueraria montana Lour. [Merr.] variety lobata [Willd.] Maesen & S. Almeida. However, the insect has become a consistent economic pest of soybeans, Glycine max (L.) Merr., and some other leguminous crops in areas where large numbers can build in kudzu, in addition to being a considerable nuisance in urban landscapes where kudzu occurs. The insect has remarkable capacity for movement and has spread rapidly from nine Georgia counties in 2009 to seven states in 2012. Despite being a nuisance in urban areas and a crop pest, high populations of the bug also reduce the biomass of kudzu, which is itself a seriously problematic invasive weed, complicating the status of M. cribraria in its expanded range. Extant predators and a pathogen in the US have been observed attacking kudzu bugs in the laboratory and field, but no parasitism of eggs or nymphs has been observed to date. A single record of parasitism of an adult kudzu bug by a tachinid fly is known from the US, but no other adult parasitism has been observed in the US or elsewhere. Extant enemies may eventually significantly reduce the bug’s populations, but at present native enemies appear to be insufficient for the task, and exotic enemies from the kudzu bug’s native range may offer the best possibility for effective biological control in the US. Based on the available literature, the best option for an importation biological control program appears to be the platygastrid egg parasitoid Paratelenomus saccharalis (Dodd) because of its apparent host specificity, intimate biological linkages with M. cribraria, and wide geographic distribution in the Eastern Hemisphere. Other natural enemies may eventually emerge as good candidates for importation, but at present P. saccharalis appears to be the most promising.     

Modelling ecological niches from low numbers of occurrences: assessment of the conservation status of poorly known viverrids (Mammalia, Carnivora) across two continents

The conservation of poorly known species is difficult because of incomplete knowledge on their biology and distribution. We studied the contribution of two ecological niche modelling tools, the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and maximum entropy (Maxent), in assessing potential ranges and distributional connectivity among 12 of the least known African and Asian viverrids. The level of agreement between GARP and Maxent predictions was low when < 15 occurrences were available, probably indicating a minimum number below that necessary to obtain models with good predictive power. Unexpectedly, our results suggested that Maxent extrapolated more than GARP in the context of small sample sizes. Predictions were overlapped with current land use and location of protected areas to estimate the conservation status of each species. Our analyses yielded range predictions generally contradicting with extents of occurrence established by the IUCN. We evidenced a high level of disturbance within predicted distributions in West and East Africa, Sumatra, and South-East Asia, and identified within West African degraded lowlands four relatively preserved areas that might be of prime importance for the conservation of rainforest taxa. Knowing whether these species of viverrids may survive in degraded or alternative habitats is of crucial importance for further conservation planning. The level of coverage of species suitable ranges by existing and proposed IUCN reserves was low, and we recommend that the total surface of protected areas be substantially increased on both continents.     

The Use of Climatic Niches in Screening Procedures for Introduced Species to Evaluate Risk of Spread: A Case with the American Eastern Grey Squirrel

Species introduction represents one of the most serious threats for biodiversity. The realized climatic niche of an invasive species can be used to predict its potential distribution in new areas, providing a basis for screening procedures in the compilation of black and white lists to prevent new introductions. We tested this assertion by modeling the realized climatic niche of the Eastern grey squirrel Sciurus carolinensis. Maxent was used to develop three models: one considering only records from the native range (NRM), a second including records from native and invasive range (NIRM), a third calibrated with invasive occurrences and projected in the native range (RCM). Niche conservatism was tested considering both a niche equivalency and a niche similarity test. NRM failed to predict suitable parts of the currently invaded range in Europe, while RCM underestimated the suitability in the native range. NIRM accurately predicted both the native and invasive range. The niche equivalency hypothesis was rejected due to a significant difference between the grey squirrel’s niche in native and invasive ranges. The niche similarity test yielded no significant results. Our analyses support the hypothesis of a shift in the species’ climatic niche in the area of introductions. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) appear to be a useful tool in the compilation of black lists, allowing identifying areas vulnerable to invasions. We advise caution in the use of SDMs based only on the native range of a species for the compilation of white lists for other geographic areas, due to the significant risk of underestimating its potential invasive range.     

Niche conservatism and the potential for the crayfish Procambarus clarkii to invade South America

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Evolutionary and environmental effects on the geographical adaptation of herbivory resistance in native and introduced <Emphasis Type="Italic">Solidago altissima</Emphasis> populations

To understand rapid evolution in plant resistance to herbivory, it is critical to determine how the genetic correlation among resistances varies genetically and/or environmentally. We conducted a reciprocal transplant experiment of tall goldenrod, Solidago altissima with multiple replicates within the native range (USA) and the introduced range (Japan) to explore the differences in phenotypic traits of resistance to multiple herbivorous insects and their relationships between and within the countries. The Japanese plants were more resistant to the lace bug, Corythucha marmorata, which had recently invaded Japan, but were more susceptible to other herbivorous insects compared to the USA plants. An antagonistic relationship was found between plant resistances to lace bugs and other herbivorous insects in both USA and Japanese plants. In addition, this relationship was more obvious in gardens with a high level of foliage damage than in gardens with a low level of foliage damage by other herbivorous insects. An antagonistic relationship between resistances to aphids and lace bugs was also observed in USA gardens, but not in Japanese garden. These results suggest that the strength of constraints on the evolution of plant resistance due to genetic trade-offs may differ among biotic environments, including community structure of herbivorous insects. Therefore, differences in herbivorous insect communities between the native and introduced ranges can result in the rapid evolution of greater resistance in plants in the introduced range than in the native range.     

What is the impact of Impatiens parviflora on diversity and composition of herbal layer communities of temperate forests?

The aim was to estimate the impacts of invasive Impatiens parviflora on forests' herbal layer communities. A replicated Before-After-Control-Impact field experiment and comparisons with adjacent uninvaded plots were used. The alien's impact on species richness was tested using hierarchical generalized mixed effect models with Poisson error structure. Impact on species composition was tested using multivariate models (DCA, CCA, RDA) and Monte-Carlo permutation tests. Removal plots did not differ in native species richness from neither invaded nor adjacent uninvaded plots, both when the treatment's main effect or its interaction with sampling time was tested (Chi(2)?=?0.4757, DF?=?2, p?=?0.7883; Chi(2)?=?7.229, DF?=?8, p?=?0.5121 respectively). On the contrary, ordination models revealed differences in the development of plots following the treatments (p?=?0.034) with the invaded plots differing from the adjacent uninvaded (p?=?0.002). Impatiens parviflora is highly unlikely to impact native species richness of invaded communities, which may be associated with its limited ability to create a dense canopy, a modest root system or the fact the I. parviflora does not represent a novel and distinctive dominant to the invaded communities. Concerning its potential impacts on species composition, the presence of native clonal species (Athyrium filix-femina, Dryopteris filix-mas, Fragaria moschata, Luzula luzuloides, Poa nemoralis) on the adjacent uninvaded plots likely makes them different from the invaded plots. However, these competitive and strong species are more likely to prevent the invasion of I. parviflora on the adjacent uninvaded plots rather than being themselves eliminated from the invaded communities.