Pollen season and climate: Is the timing of birch pollen release in the UK approaching its limit?

In light of heightened interest in the response of pollen phenology to temperature, we investigated recent changes to the onset of Betula (birch) pollen seasons in central and southern England, including a test of predicted advancement of the Betula pollen season for London. We calculated onset of birch pollen seasons using daily airborne pollen data obtained at London, Plymouth and Worcester, determined trends in the start of the pollen season and compared timing of the birch pollen season with observed temperature patterns for the period 1995–2010. We found no overall change in the onset of birch pollen in the study period although there was evidence that the response to temperature was nonlinear and that a lower asymptotic start of the pollen season may exist. The start of the birch pollen season was strongly correlated with March mean temperature. These results reinforce previous findings showing that the timing of the birch pollen season in the UK is particularly sensitive to spring temperatures. The climate relationship shown here persists over both longer decadal-scale trends and shorter, seasonal trends as well as during periods of ‘sign-switching’ when cooler spring temperatures result in later start dates. These attributes, combined with the wide geographical coverage of airborne pollen monitoring sites, some with records extending back several decades, provide a powerful tool for the detection of climate change impacts, although local site factors and the requirement for winter chilling may be confounding factors.     

Temporal and geographical variations in grass pollen seasons in areas of west0ern Europe: an analysis of season dates at sites of the European pollen information system

Geographical and temporal variations in the start dates of grass pollen seasons are described for selected sites of the European Pollen Information Service. Daily average grass pollen counts are derived from Network sites in Finland, the Netherlands, Denmark, United Kingdom, Austria, Italy and Spain, giving a broad longitudinal transect over Western Europe. The study is part of a larger project that also examines annual and regional variations in the severity, timing of the peak and duration of the grass pollen seasons. For several sites, data are available for over twenty years enabling long term trends to be discerned. The analyses show notable contrasts in the progression of the seasons annually with differing lag times occurring between southern and northern sites in various years depending on the weather conditions. The patterns identified provide some insight into geographical differences and temporal trends in the incidence of pollinosis. The paper discusses the main difficulties involved in this type of analysis and notes possibilities for using data from the European Pollen Information service to construct pan European predictive models for pollen seasons. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Variations and trends of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Betula</Emphasis> pollen seasons in Moscow (Russia) in relation to meteorological parameters

This study investigates possible links of meteorological data and the start date, end date, duration, date of peak, peak value and Seasonal Pollen Index (SPI) of birch pollen seasons recorded in Moscow, Russia, during 1993–2015. Pollen data were collected by a volumetric spore trap. Correlation analysis was used to study relationships between various parameters of pollen seasons. Simple linear regression analysis was conducted to investigate trends over time; multiple stepwise regression analysis was used to describe SPI fluctuations as a function of seasonal or monthly climatic parameters. Air temperatures increased significantly during the study period, but no effect on the timing of the birch pollen season was found. Only the severity of the season showed significant changes that can be considered as a consequence of global warming. Rainfall in May and June of the year preceding flowering, total rainfall in the 40-day pre-season period and average temperature during the pollination were shown to be the most important parameters affecting birch pollen concentrations.     

The start of the birch pollen season in Finnish Lapland: separating non‐local from local birch pollen and the implication for allergy sufferers

Determining the start of the birch pollen season requires the reliable separation of non‐local from locally produced birch pollen. The research was undertaken close to the latitudinal birch tree line at the Kevo Subarctic Research Institute (69°45′N 27°01′E) in northern Finland. By comparing phenological and aerobiological observations, the proportion of birch pollen present in the air before local anthesis commences can be delimited. We coupled this with data of pollen deposition monitored by means of a modified Tauber trap. The dominant birch species at Kevo is the mountain birch Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii, whereas B. pubescens ssp. pubescens is very rare, hence we consider the proportion of the southerly B. pubescens‐type pollen deposited in the pollen trap to be non‐local in origin.

We did not observe any trend towards an earlier start of the phenologically observed mountain birch anthesis at Kevo as predicted from work elsewhere. Moreover, the fixed 2.5% threshold method for determining the birch pollen season proved not to be applicable since in many years this threshold was reached before the end of continuous snow cover. The results indicate that in some years non‐local birch pollen contributes considerably to the allergen load in Lapland with up to 57% of the total birch pollen sum being recorded before the day on which local anthesis commenced, and up to 70% of the annual birch pollen deposited being of the southerly birch type.     

Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on grass pollen counts in Europe

Relationships between temporal variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and grass pollen counts at 13 sites in Europe, ranging from Córdoba in the south-west and Turku in the north-east, were studied in order to determine spatial differences in the amount of influence exerted by the NAO on the timing and magnitude of grass pollen seasons. There were a number of significant (P < 0.05) relationships between the NAO and start dates of the grass pollen season at the 13 pollen-monitoring sites. The strongest associations were generally recorded near to the Atlantic coast. Several significant correlations also existed between winter averages of the NAO and grass pollen season severity. Traditional methods for predicting the start or magnitude of grass pollen seasons have centred on the use of local meteorological observations, but this study has shown the importance of considering large-scale patterns of climate variability like the NAO.     

Changes in the pollen seasons of the early flowering trees <Emphasis Type="Italic">Alnus</Emphasis> spp. and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Corylus</Emphasis> spp. in Worcester,United Kingdom, 1996–2005

Previous work on Betula spp. (birch) in the UK and at five sites in Europe has shown that pollen seasons for this taxon have tended to become earlier by about 5–10 days per decade in most regions investigated over the last 30 years. This pattern has been linked to the trend to warmer winters and springs in recent years. However, little work has been done to investigate the changes in the pollen seasons for the early flowering trees. Several of these, such as Alnus spp. and Corylus spp., have allergens, which cross-react with those of Betula spp., and so have a priming effect on allergic people. This paper investigates pollen seasons for Alnus spp. and Corylus spp. for the years 1996–2005 at Worcester, in the West Midlands, United Kingdom. Pollen data for daily average counts were collected using a Burkard volumetric trap sited on the exposed roof of a three-storey building. The climate is western maritime. Meteorological data for daily temperatures (maximum and minimum) and rainfall were obtained from the local monitoring sites. The local area up to approximately 10 km surrounding the site is mostly level terrain with some undulating hills and valleys. The local vegetation is mixed farmland and deciduous woodland. The pollen seasons for the two taxa investigated are typically late December or early January to late March. Various ways of defining the start and end of the pollen seasons were considered for these taxa, but the most useful was the 1% method whereby the season is deemed to have started when 1% of the total catch is achieved and to have ended when 99% is reached. The cumulative catches (in grains/m³) for Alnus spp. varied from 698 (2001) to 3,467 (2004). For Corylus spp., they varied from 65 (2001) to 4,933 (2004). The start dates for Alnus spp. showed 39 days difference in the 10 years (earliest 2000 day 21, latest 1996 day 60). The end dates differed by 26 days and the length of season differed by 15 days. The last 4 years in the set had notably higher cumulative counts than the first 2, but there was no trend towards earlier starts. For Corylus spp. start days also differed by 39 days (earliest 1999 day 5, latest 1996 day 44). The end date differed by 35 days and length of season by 26 days. Cumulative counts and lengths of season showed a distinct pattern of alternative high (long) and low (short) years. There is some evidence of a synchronous pattern for Alnus spp.. These patterns show some significant correlations with temperature and rainfall through the autumn, winter and early spring, and some relationships with growth degree 4s and chill units, but the series is too short to discern trends. The analysis has provided insight to the variation in the seasons for these early flowering trees and will form a basis for future work on building predictive models for these taxa.     

Comparison of some pollen concentrations in Finland and the Estonian SSR

Summary Pollen and spore concentrations were compared in Tartu, Estonia and in three sites in Finland (Turku, Kuopio and Oulu) during May–September 1989. The onset ofQuercus, Pinus, Poaceae,Urtica andRumex flowering started earlier in Tartu than at any site in Finland. The flowering ofJuniperus andArtemisia, on the other hand, began earlier in Turku and Kuopio than in Tartu.Pinus andJuniperus showed a significant correlation (number of pollen grains at the same date) between Tartu and Turku and between Turku and Kuopio. Poaceae andUrtica were correlated between all the sites, as wasRumex except between Tartu and Turku.Artemisia was correlated between Tartu and Turku, Turku and Oulu, and Kuopio and Oulu.Cladosporium correlated between Tartu and Turku. The pollen seasons of Poaceae,Urtica andRumex are prolonged towards the south.     

Thirty-four years of pollen monitoring: an evaluation of the temporal variation of pollen seasons in Belgium

For the first time in Belgium, fluctuations in airborne pollen quantities over a 34 years period have been analyzed. Seven pollen types have been selected comprising the most clinically relevant in Belgium nowadays (birch, alder, hazel and grasses) and others that are known to be allergenic in other European countries and frequently found in Belgium (plane, ash and mugwort). Pollen monitoring was performed with a seven-day recording volumetric spore trap placed in Brussels. We measured increasing airborne pollen for four trees, namely alder, hazel, ash and plane. Although the total pollen index for birch has not increased significantly, an increasing trend in the annual amount of days above the concentration threshold of 80 pollen grains/m³ was clearly observed. Concerning temporal variations, the pollen season has tended to end earlier for birch, ash and plane and the peak concentration of the pollen of plane has been appearing earlier in the year. In the investigated period, the pollen seasons of grasses and mugwort have tended to become less severe. Furthermore, we reported a temporal shift of the grass pollen season, beginning and ending earlier, together with an advance of the annual peak date.     

Climate change effect on Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen seasons in the United States

Climatic change is expected to affect the spatiotemporal patterns of airborne allergenic pollen, which has been found to act synergistically with common air pollutants, such as ozone, to cause allergic airway disease (AAD). Observed airborne pollen data from six stations from 1994 to 2011 at Fargo (North Dakota), College Station (Texas), Omaha (Nebraska), Pleasanton (California), Cherry Hill and Newark (New Jersey) in the US were studied to examine climate change effects on trends of annual mean and peak value of daily concentrations, annual production, season start, and season length of Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen. The growing degree hour (GDH) model was used to establish a relationship between start/end dates and differential temperature sums using observed hourly temperatures from surrounding meteorology stations. Optimum GDH models were then combined with meteorological information from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and land use land coverage data from the Biogenic Emissions Land use Database, version 3.1 (BELD3.1), to simulate start dates and season lengths of birch and oak pollen for both past and future years across the contiguous US (CONUS). For most of the studied stations, comparison of mean pollen indices between the periods of 1994–2000 and 2001–2011 showed that birch and oak trees were observed to flower 1–2 weeks earlier; annual mean and peak value of daily pollen concentrations tended to increase by 13.6 %–248 %. The observed pollen season lengths varied for birch and for oak across the different monitoring stations. Optimum initial date, base temperature, and threshold GDH for start date was found to be 1 March, 8 °C, and 1,879 h, respectively, for birch; 1 March, 5 °C, and 4,760 h, respectively, for oak. Simulation results indicated that responses of birch and oak pollen seasons to climate change are expected to vary for different regions.     

Trends in atmospheric concentrations of weed pollen in the context of recent climate warming in Poznań (Western Poland)

A significant increase in summer temperatures has been observed for the period 1996–2011 in Poznań, Poland. The phenological response of four weed taxa, widely represented by anemophilous species (Artemisia spp., Rumex spp. and Poaceae and Urticaceae species) to this recent climate warming has been analysed in Poznań by examining the variations in the course of airborne pollen seasons. Pollen data were collected by 7-day Hirst-type volumetric trap. Trends in pollen seasons were determined using Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, whereas the relationships between meteorological and aerobiological data were established by Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. Significant trends in pollen data were detected. The duration of pollen seasons of all analysed taxa increased (from +2.0 days/year for Urticaceae to +3.8 days/year for Rumex), which can be attributed to a delay in pollen season end dates rather than earlier start dates. In addition, the intensity of Artemisia pollen seasons significantly decreased and correlates with mean July–September daily minimum temperatures (r?=??0.644, p?Rumex pollen seasons. The results of this study show that observed shifts in weed pollen seasons in Poznań, i.e. longer duration and later end dates, might be caused by the recorded increase in summer temperature. This influence was the strongest in relation to Artemisia, which is the taxon that flowers latest in the year. The general lack of significant correlations between Rumex and Urticaceae pollen seasons and spring and/or summer temperature suggests that other factors, e.g. land use practices, could also be partially responsible for the observed shifts in pollen seasons.     

Comparison of airborne herb pollen types in Córdoba (Southwestern Spain) and Poznan (Western Poland)

This study sought to compare airborne pollen counts for a number of common herbaceous species (Plantago, Chenopodiaceae–Amaranthaceae, Rumex, and Urticaceae) in two cities with differing weather conditions, Córdoba (Southwestern Spain) and Poznan (Western Poland). Pollen seasons for these species were studied from 1995 to 2005. Aerobiological sampling was performed using a Hirst type 7-day spore trap, in accordance with the procedure developed by the European Aerobiology Network. A Spearman correlation test was used to test for correlations between meteorological parameters and daily airborne pollen counts. The Spearman correlation test and the Wilcoxon signed ranks test were also used to compare mean daily pollen counts for the two study sites. In Córdoba, the pollen season generally started around two months earlier than in Poznan, and also lasted longer. These findings were attributed to the presence of a larger number of species in Córdoba, with overlapping pollen seasons, and also to more favorable weather conditions. Trends in pollen season start dates were fairly stable over the study period, with a slight tendency to delayed onset in Córdoba and a modest advance in start date in Poznan. The pollen season end date also remained reasonably stable over the study, with only a slight tendency for the season to end earlier in Córdoba and later in Poznan. A clear trend towards declining annual pollen counts was recorded over the study period for all pollen types in both cities.     

Differences in atmospheric trees pollen seasons in winter, spring and summer in two European geographic areas, Spain and Italy

The global climate change reported over recent years may prompt changes in the atmospheric pollen season (APS). The aim of this study is to evaluate the possible impact provoked by meteorological conditions variations at different seasons of the year or different geographical areas on APS. Alnus, Betula and Castanea atmospheric pollen seasons and trends during the last 17 years at Ourense and Vigo (Galicia—NW Spain) and Perugia (Italy) were analysed. Possible incidence of the meteorological trends observed in the different cities on the atmospheric pollen seasons and the chill and heat requirements were evaluated. Pollen data from Ourense, Vigo and Perugia (1995–2011) were used. Pollen sampling was performed using LANZONI VPPS 2000 volumetric traps (Hirst in Ann Appl Biol 36:257–265, 1952), placed on top of different buildings at a similar height from the ground. Several methods, dates and threshold temperatures for determining the chill and heat requirements needed to trigger flowering were tested. Different temporary order in the pollination sequence was observed between the three pollen types studied in the three sites. Alnus flowers few days in advance in Ourense respecting to Vigo and 1 month earlier than Perugia. The Betula flowering start date in Ourense and Vigo is almost simultaneous, taking place only 5 days in advance with respect to Perugia. Finally, scarce differences in the APS onset of Castanea were detected between the three cities. The variations observed among the two areas (Umbria, Italy and Galicia, Spain) in the onset of pollen season in the winter or spring flowering trees could be explained by differences in the thermal requirements needed for flowering as consequence of the climatic conditions recorded during the previous period to flowering. The length of the chilling and heat period as well as the thermal requirements obtained showed differences between geographical areas. The chill requirements accumulated were higher in Perugia than Ourense and Vigo. By contrary, the lowest heat accumulation was achieved in Perugia. The observed trends in the APS characteristics and the weather-related parameters were not homogeneous both in the pollen types and sites. The pollen index of Betula and Castanea pollen in Ourense shows a significant trend to increase.     

Trends in grass pollen season in southern Spain

The main characteristics of Poaceae pollen season at 8 sites in Andalusia were studied. Special attention was paid in the trends of grass pollen-season start and peak dates. Moreover, we analyse the intensity of the grass pollen season over the study period as well as potential temporal and spatial patterns in these data. Statistical analysis was performed to determine the possible influence of weather-related parameters on variations in the grass pollen season. Main results show an advance in the start and peak of grass pollen season and an increase in the annual Pollen Index and in the severity of the season (days > 25 pollen grains/m³). The future consequences of these changes in grass phenology could be related with changes in land use and also in pollinosis symptoms due to the higher concentrations recorded but also to the variations on pollen season dates.     

Variations and trends of birch pollen seasons during 15 years (1996–2010) in relation to weather conditions in Poznań (western Poland)

Birch (Betula) pollen seasons were examined in relation to meteorological conditions in Poznań (1996–2010). Birch pollen grains were collected using a volumetric spore trap. An alternate biennial cycle of birch pollen season intensity was noticed in Poznań. The main factors influencing birch pollen season intensity were average daily minimum temperatures during the second fortnight of May and the month of June one year before pollination as well as the intensity of the pollen season of the previous year. Most of the pollen grains are recorded during the first week of the season; the number of pollen grains recorded at this time is positively correlated with mean maximum temperature and negatively correlated with daily rainfall. The significant effect of rainfall in reducing the season pollen index was noticed only during weak pollen seasons (season pollen index <?mean). In addition, mean daily maximum temperature during the first two weeks of the birch pollen season markedly influences its duration. No significant trends in duration and intensity of the pollen season were recorded, however, a slight tendency towards early pollination was observed (?0.4 days/year, p?=?0.310).     

Integration of flowering dates in phenology and pollen counts in aerobiology: analysis of their spatial and temporal coherence in Germany (1992–1999)

We studied the possibility of integrating flowering dates in phenology and pollen counts in aerobiology in Germany. Data were analyzed for three pollen types (Betula, Poaceae, Artemisia) at 51 stations with pollen traps, and corresponding phenological flowering dates for 400 adjacent stations (< 25 km) for the years 1992–1993 and 1997–1999. The spatial and temporal coherence of these data sets was investigated by comparing start and peak of the pollen season with local minima and means of plant flowering. Our study revealed that start of birch pollen season occurred on average 5.7 days earlier than local birch flowering. For mugwort and grass, the pollen season started on average after local flowering was observed; mugwort pollen was found 4.8 days later and grass pollen season started almost on the same day (0.6 days later) as local flowering. Whereas the peak of the birch pollen season coincided with the mean flowering dates (0.4 days later), the pollen peaks of the other two species took place much later. On average, the peak of mugwort pollen occurred 15.4 days later than mean local flowering, the peak of grass pollen catches followed 22.6 days after local flowering. The study revealed a great temporal divergence between pollen and flowering dates with an irregular spatial pattern across Germany. Not all pollen catches could be explained by local vegetation flowering. Possible reasons include long-distance transport, pollen contributions of other than phenologically observed species and methodological constraints. The results suggest that further research is needed before using flowering dates in phenology to extrapolate pollen counts.     

A method to forecast the start of theBetula, Platanus andQuercus pollen seasons in North London

This paper attempts the prediction of the start of theBetula, Quercus andPlatanus pollen seasons in London, UK based on pollen sampling conducted over a 5-year period, 1987–1991. The times at which eight different thresholds of accumulated daily pollen counts (M⁻³) were passed were correlated against heat sums, chill units, accumulated sunshine hours, monthly meteorological parameters and the start dates of earlier pollen seasons to identify significant associations. Few meteorological parameters were significantly correlated with the start dates of the three pollen seasons, the exceptions being significant negative correlations between the average monthly air temperature in the months immediately preceding theBetula andPlatanus pollen season. However, significant relationships were identified between the start dates of theBetula, Quercus andPlatanus pollen seasons and the start of theCorylus, Taxus andPopulus pollen seasons with coefficients of determination as high as 98%. These indicator species were then used as predictors to forecast the start of theBetula, Quercus andPlatanus pollen seasons, both individually and in combination with one another, providing levels of explanation of up to 99%.     

A comparative study of airborne pollen concentrations of three allergenic types

Airborne concentrations of pollen from Betula (birch), Poaceae (grasses) and Artemisia (mugwort) are compared during a seven year period (90–96) with respect to both quantitative and seasonal aspects, at three different sampling sites, one in Estonia (Tartu) and two in Sweden (Stockholm and Roma on the island of Gotland). All three taxa occur in the region and are well‐known causes of allergic sensitisation. The annual total and peak values of birch, grass and mugwort pollen were found to be much higher in Tartu than in Stockholm and Roma. Both the birch and the grass pollen seasons ended later in Stockholm than in Roma and Tartu. The mugwort flowering season always began earlier in Stockholm than at the other sites, and more days elapsed between start day and peak day in Stockholm than in Tartu.     

The effect of the meteorological factors on the Alnus pollen season in Lublin (Poland)

Alder pollen seasons and the effect of meteorological conditions on daily average pollen counts in the air of Lublin (Poland) were analysed. Alnus pollen grains reach very high concentrations in the atmosphere of this city during the early spring period and the parameters of pollen seasons were very different in the particular years studied. The pollen season lasted on average one month. The highest variation was observed for the peak value and the Seasonal Pollen Index (SPI). The pollen seasons, which started later, had shorter duration. Peak daily average pollen counts and SPI value were higher during the shorter seasons. Similarities in the stages of pollen seasons designated by the percentage method depended on the start date of the pollen season. Season parameters were mainly correlated with thermal conditions at the beginning of the year. Regression analysis was used to predict certain characteristics of the alder pollen season. The highest level of explanation of the variation in Alnus pollen season start and peak dates was obtained in the model using mean temperature in February. The obtained regression models may predict 82% of the variation in the pollen season start date, 73% of the variation in the duration, and 62% in the peak date.     

Predicting the start of the birch pollen season at London, Derby and Cardiff, United Kingdom, using a multiple regression model, based on data from 1987 to 1997

Recent changes in weather in North-West Europehave been reflected in the start dates ofpollen seasons. It is therefore necessary toupdate previous models, such as the oneproduced by Jones (1995), so that the modelwill be weighted by current weather patterns. Birch pollen data, collected over a period ofeleven years (1987 to 1997 inclusive) fromthree pollen counting stations in the UK,London, Derby and Cardiff, were analysed todetermine the start dates using the Sum75method. The start dates of the birch pollenseasons of the eleven-year period were thentested for significance against ten-dayaggregated variables of temperature andrainfall for each site. The significantvariables were entered into multiple regressionmodels until the most valid equation for eachsite was found. The models were then tested onthree years not included in their data sets. The models showed mean differences betweenactual and predicted start dates, for theeleven years used, of 1.5, 3 and 5 days atDerby, Cardiff and London respectively. Forthe test years the mean difference was 1, 4.5and 7.5 days at Derby, Cardiff and Londonrespectively. The most powerful model was forDerby where the corresponding meteorologicalstation is at 0.5 km distance and the weakestwas for London where the correspondingmeteorological station is much further away at21 km distance. Weather variables from earlyFebruary to mid March were found to be the mostinfluential on the start dates of the birchpollen season at the three sites.     

Quantitative trends in annual totals of five common airborne pollen types (Betula, Quercus, Poaceae, Urtica, and Artemisia), at five pollen-monitoring stations in western Europe

The existence of long-term (20–33 years) trendsin the annual totals of daily airborne pollenconcentrations of five common and/or allergenicwind pollinating taxa was evaluated at fivepollen-monitoring stations in western Europe:Delmenhorst (D), Helmond (NL), Brussels (B),Leiden (NL), and Derby (UK). At all stations,identical or comparable volumetric traps wereused to sample pollen from the air. For grasspollen no increasing or decreasing trends werefound at any station. Trends for birch pollenand oak pollen are increasing, but notsignificant at the stations with the higherannual totals (Delmenhorst and Helmond),probably due to strong year-to-yearfluctuations. At all five stations significantincreasing trends for stinging nettle pollenwere observed. Trends for mugwort pollen aresignificant at all stations, but in differentdirections. Longer periods of observations areneeded to arrive to more definitive conclusionsabout trends in airborne pollenconcentrations.