Effective population sizes and migration rates in fragmented populations of an endangered insect (Coenagrion mercuriale: Odonata)

1. Effective population sizes (N(e)) and migration rates (m) are critical evolutionary parameters that impact on population survival and determine the relative influence of selection and genetic drift. While the parameter m is well-studied in animal populations, N(e) remains challenging to measure and consequently is only rarely estimated, particularly in insect taxa. 2. We used demographic and genetic methods to estimate N(e) and m in a fragmented population of the endangered damselfly Coenagrion mercuriale to better understand the contrast between genetic and field estimates of these parameters and also to identify the spatial scale over which populations may become locally adapted. 3. We found a contrast between demographic- and genetic-based estimates of these parameters, with the former apparently providing overestimates of N(e), owing to substantial underestimation of the variance in reproductive success, and the latter overestimating m, because spatial genetic structure is weak. 4. The overall N(e) of sites within the population network at Beaulieu Heath, the largest C. mercuriale site in the UK, was estimated to vary between approximately 60 and 2700. 5. While N(e) was not correlated with either the total numbers of adults (N) or the area of habitat, this parameter was always less than N, because of substantial variance in reproductive success. The ratio N(e)/N varied between 0.006 and 0.42 and was generally larger in smaller populations, possibly representing some 'genetic compensation'. 6. From a simple genetic model and these data on N(e) and m, it seems that populations of C. mercuriale have the potential to respond to localized spatial variation in selection and this would need to be considered for future genetic management of this endangered species.     

Population dynamics in a long-lived seabird: I. Impact of breeding activity on survival and breeding probability in unbanded king penguins

Understanding the trade-off between current reproductive effort, future survival and future breeding attempts is crucial for demographic analyses and life history studies. We investigated this trade-off in a population of king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) marked individually with transponders using multistate capture-recapture models. This colonial seabird species has a low annual proportion of non-breeders (13%), despite a breeding cycle which lasts over 1 year. To draw inferences about the consequences of non-breeding, we tested for an effect of reproductive activity on survival and on the probability of subsequent breeding. We found that birds non-breeding in year t show the same survival rate as breeders (two-states analysis: breeding and non-breeding). However, breeders had a lower probability of breeding again the following year. This negative phenotypic correlation suggests the existence of reproductive costs affecting future breeding probability, but it might also be strengthened by late arrival for courtship in year t. A three-state analysis including breeding success revealed that failed breeders in year t have a lower probability to reproduce successfully in year t + 1 than non-breeders in year t, providing some evidence for the existence of reproductive costs. Moreover, successful breeders showed higher survival probability. This positive phenotypic correlation between current reproduction and subsequent survival supports the hypothesis of an heterogeneity in individual quality. Males breeding in year t had a lower probability to breed again in year t + 1 than females, suggesting higher reproductive costs for this sex. Such additional costs might be due to higher male parental investment in the final phase of chick-rearing, which also delays the arrival of males in year t + 1, and decreases their breeding probability. Our study is the first to explore the breeding biology and the demography of penguins without the disturbance of flipper-bands.     

Estimating population size of endangered brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata) colonies using faecal DNA

The brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata) is an endangered species in southeastern Australia and many of the remaining populations are declining. The steep rocky habitat and shy nature of the species make it difficult to obtain data on population parameters such as abundance and recruitment. Faecal pellet counts from scat plots are commonly used to monitor population trends but these are imprecise and difficult to relate to absolute population size. We conducted a noninvasive genetic sampling 'mark-recapture' study over a 2-year period to identify individuals from faecal DNA samples and estimate the population size of four brush-tailed rock-wallaby colonies located in Wollemi National Park, New South Wales. Scat plots in rock-wallaby colonies were used as sample collection points for this study. Two separate population estimates were carried out for three of the colonies to determine if we could detect recruitment and changes in population size. We determined that there was one large colony of an estimated 67 individuals (95% confidence interval: 55-91) and three smaller colonies. Monitoring of the smaller colonies also detected possible population size increases in all three. Our results indicate that faecal DNA analysis may be a promising method for estimating and monitoring population trends in this species particularly when used with a traditional field survey method.     

The impact of disease on the survival and population growth rate of the Tasmanian devil

1. We investigated the impact of a recently emerged disease, Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD), on the survival and population growth rate of a population of Tasmanian devils, Sarcophilus harrisii, on the Freycinet Peninsula in eastern Tasmania. 2. Cormack-Jolly-Seber and multistate mark-recapture models were employed to investigate the impact of DFTD on age- and sex-specific apparent survival and transition rates. Disease impact on population growth rate was investigated using reverse-time mark-recapture models. 3. The arrival of DFTD triggered an immediate and steady decline in apparent survival rates of adults and subadults, the rate of which was predicted well by the increase in disease prevalence in the population over time. 4. Transitions from healthy to diseased state increased with disease prevalence suggesting that the force of infection in the population is increasing and that the epidemic is not subsiding. 5. The arrival of DFTD coincided with a marked, ongoing decline in the population growth rate of the previously stable population, which to date has not been offset by population compensatory responses.     

Metabolic constraints on the body size scaling of extreme population densities

Pest outbreaks, harmful algal blooms and population collapses are extreme events with critical consequences for ecosystems. Therefore, understanding the ecological mechanisms underlying these extreme events is crucial. We evaluated theoretical predictions on the size scaling and variance of extreme population abundance by combining (i) the generalized extreme value (GEV) theory and (ii) the resource-limited metabolic restriction hypothesis for population abundance. Using the phytoplankton data from the L4 station in the English Channel, we showed a negative size scaling of the expected value of maximal density, whose confidence interval included the predicted metabolic scaling (α = −1) supporting theoretical predictions. The role of resources and temperature in the distribution of the size–abundance pattern and residuals was well characterized by the GEV distribution. This comprehensive modelling framework will allow to elucidate community structure and fluctuations and provide unbiased return times estimates, thereby improving the prediction accuracy of the timing of the population outbreaks.     

Effects of human–carnivore conflict on tiger (Panthera tigris) and prey populations in Lao PDR

Unique to South-east Asia, Lao People's Democratic Republic contains extensive habitat for tigers and their prey within a multiple-use protected area system covering 13% of the country. Although human population density is the lowest in the region, the impact of human occurrence in protected areas on tiger Panthera tigris and prey populations was unknown. We examined the effects of human–carnivore conflict on tiger and prey abundance and distribution in the Nam Et-Phou Louey National Protected Area on the Lao–Vietnam border. We conducted intensive camera-trap sampling of large carnivores and prey at varying levels of human population and monitored carnivore depredation of livestock across the protected area. The relative abundance of large ungulates was low throughout whereas that of small prey was significantly higher where human density was lower. The estimated tiger density for the sample area ranged from 0.2 to 0.7 per 100 km². Tiger abundance was significantly lower where human population and disturbance were greater. Three factors, commercial poaching associated with livestock grazing followed by prey depletion and competition between large carnivores, are likely responsible for tiger abundance and distribution. Maintaining tigers in the country's protected areas will be dependent on the spatial separation of large carnivores and humans by modifying livestock husbandry practices and enforcing zoning.     

Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food‐limited Arctic herbivore

The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain‐on‐snow) can cause ‘icing’, restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a ‘barometer’ of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between‐year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long‐term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to ‘rain‐on‐snow’ events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density‐dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important ‘missing’ mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic.     

Reliable microsatellite genotyping of the Eurasian badger (Meles meles) using faecal DNA

The potential link between badgers and bovine tuberculosis has made it vital to develop accurate techniques to census badgers. Here we investigate the potential of using genetic profiles obtained from faecal DNA as a basis for population size estimation. After trialling several methods we obtained a high amplification success rate (89%) by storing faeces in 70% ethanol and using the guanidine thiocyanate/silica method for extraction. Using 70% ethanol as a storage agent had the advantage of it being an antiseptic. In order to obtain reliable genotypes with fewer amplification reactions than the standard multiple-tubes approach, we devised a comparative approach in which genetic profiles were compared and replication directed at similar, but not identical, genotypes. This modified method achieved a reduction in polymerase chain reactions comparable with the maximum-likelihood model when just using reliability criteria, and was slightly better when using reliability criteria with the additional proviso that alleles must be observed twice to be considered reliable. Our comparative approach would be best suited for studies that include multiple faeces from each individual. We utilized our approach in a well-studied population of badgers from which individuals had been sampled and reliable genotypes obtained. In a study of 53 faeces sampled from three social groups over 10 days, we found that direct enumeration could not be used to estimate population size, but that the application of mark-recapture models has the potential to provide more accurate results.     

Assessing population parameters and trends of Guiana dolphins (Sotalia guianensis): An eight‐year mark‐recapture study

This study represents the first attempt to study the population dynamics of Guiana dolphins (Sotalia guianensis), by evaluating a set of demographic parameters. The population of the Caravelas River estuary, eastern Brazil, was systematically monitored through a long‐term mark‐recapture experiment (2002–2009). Abundance estimates revealed a small population (57–124 dolphins), comprised of resident dolphins and individuals that temporarily leave or pass through the study area. Temporary emigration from the estuary to adjacencies (γ″= 0.33 ± 0.07 SE) and return rate (1 ?γ′= 0 .67) were moderate and constant, indicating that some dolphins use larger areas. Survival rate (?= 0.88 ± 0.07 SE) and abundance were constant throughout the study period. Power analysis showed that the current monitoring effort has high probability of detecting abrupt population declines (1 ?β= 0.9). Although the monitoring is not yet sensitive to subtle population trends, sufficient time to identify them is feasible (additional 3 yr). Despite such apparent stability, this population, as many others, inhabits waters exposed to multiple human‐related threats. Open and closed population modeling applied to photo‐identification data provide a robust baseline for estimating several demographic parameters and can be applied to other populations to allow further comparisons. Such synergistic efforts will allow a reliable definition of conservation status of this species.     

Growth, size and age at maturity of the agile frog (Rana dalmatina) in an Iberian Peninsula population

The mean age of a population of agile frogs (Rana dalmatina) from the Iberian Peninsula was estimated using mark and recapture and skeletochronology. Life-history parameters, including growth rate, body length, age and size at maturity, sexual dimorphism and longevity, were studied. The regression between age and snout-vent length (SVL) was highly significant in both sexes. Males reached sexual maturity at two years of age, although sometimes they can reach it at only one year of age. The average SVL at maturity was 51.75 mm (standard error (SE) = 0.71; n = 45). Females reached sexual maturity at two years of age with an average SVL of 62.14 mm (SE = 2.20; n = 14). A subset of the female population reached sexual maturity at three years of age. Growth was rapid until sexual maturity was reached. There was an overlap of SVL between different age classes. Growth was continuous, fulfilling the conditions of Von Bertalanffy's model. The growth coefficient (K) was 0.840 in males and 0.625 in females. The maximum SVL was greater in females (73.00 mm) than in males (59.50 mm). Sexual dimorphism was significantly biased towards females in all age classes. The maximum longevity observed was 6 years in females and 8 years in males. Management strategies for agile frogs should take into account factors such as these life-history characteristics.     

Spatial heterogeneity in mortality and its impact on the population dynamics of Eurasian woodcocks

Spatial heterogeneity, especially in mortality risk, is a major factor shaping population dynamics. Here we study the impacts of spatial heterogeneity in hunting pressure on the demography of Eurasian woodcock Scolopax rusticola, a relatively long-lived migratory game bird. We develop capture–recapture–recovery models in which both seasonality and spatial variation in hunting pressure are accounted for, and fit them to individual-based data collected across the French wintering range (>44000 banded individuals) as well as recoveries from spring stopovers and breeding grounds in Europe. Our results quantify spatial variation in survival probability in the wintering areas. They highlight the role of source-sink dynamics involving juvenile settlement decisions, as well as the importance of mortality outside the winter quarters. We also discuss the impact of spatial heterogeneity for demographic parameter estimation and data collection at the range scale.     

Estimating population parameters of broadnose sevengill sharks (Notorynchus cepedianus) using photo identification capture-recapture

The broadnose sevengill shark (Notorynchus cepedianus) is a common high trophic-level predator around coastal New Zealand. Data on the ecology of the species in New Zealand are severely lacking, and anthropogenic impacts are unquantified. To partially address this, the authors undertook a study of the demographics of a population at Stewart Island. Sampling trips were carried out seasonally from winter 2016 to spring 2017. A baited underwater video system (BUV) was deployed on 133 occasions (mean = 22.2 deployments per season) in a shallow coastal embayment to capture underwater video of N. cepedianus for photo identification of individuals. N. cepedianus was detected on all but one deployment. Images extracted from video recorded the presence of 149 different individuals. Capture-recapture analysis of these data using robust design methods indicated a seasonal trend in abundance of the population using the study area, ranging from 34 (95% C.I. = 21–55) during winter 2016, to 94 (95% C.I. = 44–199) during spring 2017. This study presents the first data on demographic parameters of N. cepedianus in New Zealand.     

Distribution and population dynamics of Porphyra (Bangiales, Rhodophyta) in the southern Western Cape, South Africa

Although Porphyra is commercially farmed in many countries, in South Africa only small harvests of wild populations for sale as nori have been carried out. The discovery that Porphyra improves growth of South African abalone (Haliotis midae) farmed inland-based tanks has led to increased pressure to harvest wild populations. This paper reports on a survey of the distribution and seasonality of Porphyra in the southern Western Cape. Porphyrawas present at all sites surveyed, and showed considerable temporal variation. A significant amount of the Porphyra present is in reserves and therefore protected from harvesting. Close rexamination of one site revealed seasonal populations of Porphyra that occupied different niches dependent on season. Recruitment peaked in spring and autumn, leading to dense summer and winter populations. Summer populations generally grew lower in the eulittoral than winter populations. No pattern in the mortality of larger thalli wasde tected, though sporeling mortality was high following recruitment peaks. Although it seems that most sites in the southern Western Cape are suitable for harvesting, the taxonomy of the genus in the region urgently needs revision if populations are to be appropriately managed. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.