Using an Ecosystem Modeling Approach to Explore Possible Ecosystem Impacts of Fishing in the Beibu Gulf,Northern South China Sea

Using the Ecopath with Ecosim software, a trophic structure model of the Beibu Gulf was constructed to explore the energy flows and provide a snapshot of the ecosystem operations. Input data were mainly from the trawl survey data collected from October 1998 to September 1999 and related literatures. The impacts of various fishing pressure on the biomass were examined by simulation at different fishing mortality rates. The model consists of 20 functional groups (boxes), each representing organisms with a similar role in the food web, and only covers the major trophic flows in the Beibu Gulf ecosystem. It was found that the food web of the Beibu Gulf was dominated by the primary producers path, and phytoplankton was the primary producer mostly used as a food source. The fractional trophic levels ranged from 1.0 to 4.02, and the marine mammals occupied the highest trophic level. Using network analysis, the ecosystem network was mapped into a linear food chain, and six discrete trophic levels were found with a mean transfer efficiency of 11.2%. The Finn cycling index was 9.73%. The path length was 1.821. The omnivory index was 0.197. The ecosystem had some degree of instability due to exploitation and other human activities, according to Odum’s theory of ecosystem development. A 10-year simulation was performed for each fishery scenario. The fishing mortality rate was found to have a strong impact on the biomass. By keeping the fishing mortality rate at the current level for all fishing sectors, scenario 1 had a drastic decrease in the large fish groups. The biomass of the small and medium pelagic fish would increase to some extent. The biomass of the small and low trophic level species, jellyfish, prawns and benthic crustaceans would be stable. The total biomass of the fishery resources would have a 10% decrease from the current biomass after 10 years. In contrast, the reduced fishing mortality rate induced the recovery of biomass (scenarios 2–4). In scenario 2, the biomass of the large demersal fish and the large pelagic fish would increase to over 16 times and 10 times, respectively, of their current level. In scenario 4, the biomass of the large pelagic fish would increase to over 3 times of its current level. The total biomass of the fish groups, especially the high trophic level groups, would become significantly higher after 10 years, which illustrates the contribution on biomass recovery by relaxing the fishing pressure. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Author contributions: Xiaoping Jia designed research; Zuozhi Chen and Yongsong Qiu performed research; Zuozhi Chen, Yongsong Qiu, and Shannan Xu analyzed data; and Zuozhi Chen and Shannan Xu wrote the article.     

Evaluating Network Analysis Indicators of Ecosystem Status in the Gulf of Alaska

This is the first study on the emergent properties for empirical ecosystem models that have been validated by time series information. Ecosystem models of the western and central Aleutian Islands and Southeast Alaska were used to examine indices of ecosystem status generated from network analysis and incorporated into Ecopath with Ecosim. Dynamic simulations of the two ecosystems over the past 40 years were employed to examine if these indices reflect the dissimilar changes that occurred in the ecosystems. The results showed that the total systems throughput (TST) and ascendancy (A) followed the climate change signature (Pacific decadal oscillation, PDO) in both ecosystems, whereas the redundancy (R) followed the inverse trend. The different trajectories for important species such as Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus), Atka mackerel (Pleurogrammus monopterygius), pollock (Theragra chalcograma), herring (Clupea pallasii), Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) and halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) were noticeable in the Finn cycling index (FCI), entropy (H) and average mutual information (AMI): not showing large change during the time that the Stellers sea lions, herring, Pacific cod, halibut and arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias) increased in Southeast Alaska, but showing large declines during the decline of Steller sea lions, sharks, Atka mackerel and arrowtooth flounder in the Aleutians. On the whole, there was a change in the emergent properties of the Aleutians around 1976 that was not seen in Southeast Alaska. Conversely, the emergent properties of both systems showed a change around 1988, which indicated that both systems were unstable after 1988.     

Mass-balanced trophic and loop models of complex benthic systems in northern Chile (SE Pacific) to improve sustainable interventions: a comparative analysis

The capacity to withstand perturbations and the propagation of direct and indirect effects of harvesting were explored in seagrass and sand–gravel subtidal subsystems of northern Chile using Ecopath II, Ecosim and Loop Analysis theoretical frameworks. The relative Ascendancy and Redundancy from Ecopath II and Ecosim models and the holistic stability measure (F _n ) given by Loop Analysis, all suggest that the sand–gravel subsystem is the more resistant and its fishery more sustainable. This outcome is relevant since the theoretical frameworks used are based on different assumptions but arrive at similar conclusions. If the fishery is included in the qualitative ecological models, which were found locally stable only when the fishery is self-controlled. While this conclusion is not new, its relevance here is that it emerges from qualitative multispecies modelling (Loop Analysis). Based on our model predictions, the biomass removal of the sea star Meyenaster gelatinosus would increase the standing stock of the commercial scallop Argopecten purpuratus only in the seagrass habitat, whereas the same man-made intervention may have an opposite effect in the sand–gravel habitat. We recommend to enunciate holistic models based on the theoretical framework used in the current work, which explore the reality from different perspectives assuming different givens. Based on these holistic explorations alternative and complementary management scenarios could be designed. Handling editor: T. P. Crowe     

SMOES: a simulation model for the Oosterschelde ecosystem

The model SMOES integrates the results of the ecological research program conducted in the Oosterschelde estuary before and during the construction of a storm surge barrier. Its aim is to provide a quantitative summary of the research findings and to provide a tool for analysis and prediction of the ecosystem in response to human manipulations. This chapter describes model background and formulations. An uncertainty analysis is used to analyze the effect of uncertainties in model parameters on model outcome. The results of the sensitivity analysis are classified by distinguishing groups of model parameters with a qualitatively different effect on model results. Within these groups, a quantitative ranking of the parameters is possible. It appears that the most sensitive parameters represent processes that are relatively little studied in the Oosterschelde, which may provide guidelines for further research.     

高寒草甸生态系统中牦牛体重和采食量动态模型的研究

高寒草甸生态系统中牦牛体重和采食量动态模型的研究黄大明（清华大学生物科学与技术系,北京１０００８４）赵松岭（兰州大学,兰州７３００００）Ｄｙｎａｍｉｃｍｏｄｅｌｓｏｆｙａｋｌｉｖｅｗｅｉｇｈｔａｎｄｉｔｓｉｎｔａｋｅｉｎａｌｐｉｎｅｍｅａｄｏｗｅｃｏ...     

塔南绿洲生态系统持续发展近期优化模式

基于对塔克拉玛干沙漠南缘各绿洲水资源的时空分布特征和目前各绿洲灌溉渠系利用系数的分析,通过野外对典型防护林防风效益的监测和风洞模拟实验,以及在塔克拉玛干沙漠南缘策勒绿洲进行了１５年的沙漠化土地综合治理试验示范研究经验,提出了近期内塔克拉玛干沙漠南缘绿洲生态系统持续发展系列优化模式：塔克拉玛干沙漠南缘适度绿洲优化模式、塔克拉玛干沙漠南缘绿防护林结构优化模式、塔克拉玛干沙漠南缘荒漠化土地综合整治优化模     

Carbon dioxide increase: the implications at the ecosystem level*

Abstract Possible effects of increased atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ on forest ecosystems are discussed and as an example a simulation case study using a set of mixed-age and mixed-species forest stand models is presented. The responses of the models to a simple scenario (uniform growth increase of all trees as a response to CO₂ enrichment) include increases in biomass that are considerably less than the increases in growth rate of the trees. These simulations and more general discussion of the possible effects of increased photosynthetic production identify the problem of scaling-up small time-scale and space-scale measurements of plant responses to CO₂ enrichment to the ecosystem level.     

Sustainability of the Lake Superior Fish Community: Interactions in a Food Web Context

The restoration and rehabilitation of the native fish communities is a long-term goal for the Laurentian Great Lakes. In Lake Superior, the ongoing restoration of the native lake trout populations is now regarded as one of the major success stories in fisheries management. However, populations of the deepwater morphotype (siscowet lake trout) have increased much more substantially than those of the nearshore morphotype (lean lake trout), and the ecosystem now contains an assemblage of exotic species such as sea lamprey, rainbow smelt, and Pacific salmon (chinook, coho, and steelhead). Those species play an important role in defining the constraints and opportunities for ecosystem management. We combined an equilibrium mass balance model (Ecopath) with a dynamic food web model (Ecosim) to evaluate the ecological consequences of future alternative management strategies and the interaction of two different sets of life history characteristics for fishes at the top of the food web. Relatively rapid turnover rates occur among the exotic forage fish, rainbow smelt, and its primary predators, exotic Pacific salmonids. Slower turnover rates occur among the native lake trout and burbot and their primary prey—lake herring, smelt, deepwater cisco, and sculpins. The abundance of forage fish is a key constraint for all salmonids in Lake Superior. Smelt and Mysis play a prominent role in sustaining the current trophic structure. Competition between the native lake trout and the exotic salmonids is asymmetric. Reductions in the salmon population yield only a modest benefit for the stocks of lake trout, whereas increased fishing of lake trout produces substantial potential increases in the yields of Pacific salmon to recreational fisheries. The deepwater or siscowet morphotype of lake trout has become very abundant. Although it plays a major role in the structure of the food web it offers little potential for the restoration of a valuable commercial or recreational fishery. Even if a combination of strong management actions is implemented, the populations of lean (nearshore) lake trout cannot be restored to pre-fishery and pre-lamprey levels. Thus, management strategy must accept the ecological constraints due in part to the presence of exotics and choose alternatives that sustain public interest in the resources while continuing the gradual progress toward restoration. Received 10 December 1999; accepted 13 June 2000.     

Fishing destabilizes the biomass flow in the marine size spectrum

Fishing impacts on marine food webs are predicted by simulations of a size spectrum community model. In this model, predation is determined by predator and prey size and abundance, and drives predator growth and prey mortality. Fishing amplifies temporal oscillations in the biomass flow. Oscillations appear at lower fishing intensity and have wider amplitude when fishing is selective (removes a narrow size range) and/or when large fish are targeted, than when fishing is more balanced (catching a larger size range) or when small fish are targeted. A novel index of size diversity is developed, and is shown to be sensitive to both fishing intensity and selectivity. To avoid unstable food web dynamics with potential harmful consequences for fisheries, limiting both fishing intensity and selectivity might be an appropriate exploitation strategy.     

A parameterization of leaf phenology for the terrestrial ecosystem component of climate models

Leaf phenology remains one of the most difficult processes to parameterize in terrestrial ecosystem models because our understanding of the physical processes that initiate leaf onset and senescence is incomplete. While progress has been made at the molecular level, for example by identifying genes that are associated with senescence and flowering for selected plant species, a picture of the processes controlling leaf phenology is only beginning to emerge. A variety of empirical formulations have been used with varying degrees of success in terrestrial ecosystem models for both extratropical and tropical biomes. For instance, the use of growing degree‐days (GDDs) to initiate leaf onset has received considerable recognition and this approach is used in a number of models. There are, however, limitations when using GDDs and other empirically based formulations in global transient climate change simulations. The phenology scheme developed for the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM), designed for inclusion in the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis coupled general circulation model, is described. The representation of leaf phenology is general enough to be applied over the globe and sufficiently robust for use in transient climate change simulations. Leaf phenology is functionally related to the (possibly changing) climate state and to atmospheric composition rather than to geographical boundaries or controls implicitly based on current climate. In this approach, phenology is controlled by environmental conditions as they affect the carbon balance. A carbon‐gain‐based scheme initiates leaf onset when it is beneficial for the plant, in carbon terms, to produce new leaves. Leaf offset is initiated by unfavourable environmental conditions that incur carbon losses and these include shorter day length, cooler temperatures, and dry soil moisture conditions. The comparison of simulated leaf onset and offset times with observation‐based estimates for temperate and boreal deciduous, tropical evergreen, and tropical deciduous plant functional types at selected locations indicates that the phenology scheme performs satisfactorily. Model simulated leaf area index and stem and root biomass are also compared with observational estimates to illustrate the performance of CTEM.     

Diagnosing and assessing uncertainties of terrestrial ecosystem models in a multimodel ensemble experiment: 2. Carbon balance

This paper examines carbon stocks and their relative balance in terrestrial ecosystems simulated by Biome‐BGC, LPJ, and CASA in an ensemble model experiment conducted using the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System. We developed the Hierarchical Framework for Diagnosing Ecosystem Models to separate the simulated biogeochemistry into a cascade of functional tiers and examine their characteristics sequentially. The analyses indicate that the simulated biomass is usually two to three times higher in Biome‐BGC than LPJ or CASA. Such a discrepancy is mainly induced by differences in model parameters and algorithms that regulate the rates of biomass turnover. The mean residence time of biomass in Biome‐BGC is estimated to be 40–80 years in temperate/moist climate regions, while it mostly varies between 5 and 30 years in CASA and LPJ. A large range of values is also found in the simulated soil carbon. The mean residence time of soil carbon in Biome‐BGC and LPJ is ～200 years in cold regions, which decreases rapidly with increases of temperature at a rate of ～10 yr °C^?1. Because long‐term soil carbon pool is not simulated in CASA, its corresponding mean residence time is only about 10–20 years and less sensitive to temperature. Another key factor that influences the carbon balance of the simulated ecosystem is disturbance caused by wildfire, for which the algorithms vary among the models. Because fire emissions are balanced by net ecosystem production (NEP) at steady states, magnitudes, and spatial patterns of NEP vary significantly as well. Slight carbon imbalance may be left by the spin‐up algorithm of the models, which adds uncertainty to the estimated carbon sources or sinks. Although these results are only drawn on the tested model versions, the developed methodology has potential for other model exercises.     

Diagnosing and assessing uncertainties of terrestrial ecosystem models in a multimodel ensemble experiment: 1. Primary production

We conducted an ensemble modeling exercise using the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) to evaluate sources of uncertainty in carbon flux estimates resulting from structural differences among ecosystem models. The experiment ran public‐domain versions of biome‐bgc, lpj, casa , and tops‐bgc over North America at 8 km resolution and for the period of 1982–2006. We developed the Hierarchical Framework for Diagnosing Ecosystem Models (HFDEM) to separate the simulated biogeochemistry into a cascade of three functional tiers and sequentially examine their characteristics in climate (temperature–precipitation) and other spaces. Analysis of the simulated annual gross primary production (GPP) in the climate domain indicates a general agreement among the models, all showing optimal GPP in regions where the relationship between annual average temperature (T, °C) and annual total precipitation (P, mm) is defined by P=50T+500. However, differences in simulated GPP are identified in magnitudes and distribution patterns. For forests, the GPP gradient along P=50T+500 ranges from ～50 g C yr^?1 m^?2 °C^?1 (casa ) to ～125 g C yr^?1 m^?2 °C^?1 (biome‐bgc ) in cold/temperate regions; for nonforests, the diversity among GPP distributions is even larger. Positive linear relationships are found between annual GPP and annual mean leaf area index (LAI) in all models. For biome‐bgc and lpj , such relationships lead to a positive feedback from LAI growth to GPP enhancement. Different approaches to constrain this feedback lead to different sensitivity of the models to disturbances such as fire, which contribute significantly to the diversity in GPP stated above. The ratios between independently simulated NPP and GPP are close to 50% on average; however, their distribution patterns vary significantly between models, reflecting the difficulties in estimating autotrophic respiration across various climate regimes. Although these results are drawn from our experiments with the tested model versions, the developed methodology has potential for other model exercises.     

Effects of changes in turbidity and phosphate influx on the ecosystem of the Ems estuary as obtained by a computer simulation model

In the Ems estuary the gradients in the concentration of nutrients and in turbidity (the factors that mainly determine the amount of carbon assimilated by phytoplankton) are steep. The effects of changing the turbidity in the estuary and the amount of phosphate discharged by the rivers Ems and Westerwoldsche Aa were analysed, using the simulation model developed by BOEDE (Biological Research Ems-Dollard estuary). The results of several sensitivity runs were compared with the standard run.A 50% reduction of turbidity led to a strong increase in phytoplanktonbiomass, especially in the inner parts of the estuary where turbidity is high. On average, the effects are two to three times larger for the inner part than for the outer part of the estuary. When the turbidity doubles the opposite occurs resulting in a significant decrease of phytoplankton biomass in the upper reaches. In the lower reaches of the estuary a 50% reduction in the river discharge of phosphate is largely compensated for by changes in phosphate transport from the North Sea. This results in a nearly unchanged primary production in the lower reaches as compared with the standard run.In the upper reaches a 50% reduction of phosphate loads results in a strongly reduced primary production.In general, the zooplankton groups (copepods and microzooplankton) are influenced less than the phytoplankton. Benthic fauna is hardly influenced, except for filter feeders; which are strongly affected by the total density of the particles, a parameter which also is directly related to turbidity.     

Effects of fishing and acidification‐related benthic mortality on the southeast Australian marine ecosystem

Oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) is altering the carbonate chemistry of seawater, with potentially negative consequences for many calcifying marine organisms. At the same time, increasing fisheries exploitation is impacting on marine ecosystems. Here, using increased benthic‐invertebrate mortality as a proxy for effects of ocean acidification, the potential impact of the two stressors of fishing and acidification on the southeast Australian marine ecosystem to year 2050 was explored. The individual and interaction effects of the two stressors on biomass and diversity were examined for the entire ecosystem and for regional assemblages. For 61 functional groups or species, the cumulative effects of moderate ocean acidification and fishing were additive (30%), synergistic (33%), and antagonistic (37%). Strong ocean acidification resulted in additive (22%), synergistic (40%), and antagonistic (38%) effects. The greatest impact was on the demersal food web, with fishing impacting predation and acidification affecting benthic production. Areas that have been subject to intensive fishing were the most susceptible to acidification effect, although fishing also mitigated some of the decline in biodiversity observed with moderate acidification. The model suggested that ocean acidification and long‐term fisheries exploitation could act synergistically with the increasing sensitivity to change from long‐term (decades) fisheries exploitation potentially causing unexpected restructuring of the pelagic and demersal food webs. Major regime shifts occur around year 2040. Greater focus is needed on how differential fisheries exploitation of marine resources may exacerbate or accelerate effects of environmental changes such as ocean acidification.     

Simulating climate change impacts on fire frequency and vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem

The impacts of climate change on Mediterranean‐type ecosystems may result from complex interactions between direct effects on water stress and subsequent modifications in flammability and fire regime leading to changes in standing biomass and plant species composition. We analysed these interrelations through a simulation approach combining scenarios of climate change developed from GCM results and a multispecies functional model for vegetation dynamics, SIERRA. A fire risk procedure based on weekly estimates of vegetation water stress has been implemented. Using climate data from 1960 to 1997, simulations of a typical maquis woodland community have been performed as baseline and compared with two climate scenarios: a change in the rainfall regime alone, and changes in both rainfall and air temperature. Climate changes are defined by an increase in temperature, particularly in summer, and a change in the rainfall pattern leading to a decrease in low rainfall events, and an increase in intense rainfall events. The results illustrate the lack of drastic changes in the succession process, but highlight modifications in the water budget and in the length of the drought periods. Water stress lower than expected regarding statistics on the current climate is simulated, emphasizing a long‐term new equilibrium of vegetation to summer drought but with a higher sensibility to rare events. Regarding fire frequency, climate changes tend to decrease the time interval between two successive fires from 20 to 16 years for the maquis shrubland and from 72 to 62 years in the forested stages. This increase in fire frequency leads to shrub‐dominated landscapes, which accentuates the yield of water by additional deep drainage and runoff.     

梯级开发对河流生态系统和景观影响研究进展

作为水资源和水能开发利用的主要方式,河流梯级开发在满足国民经济各部门对河流水资源开发的要求和推动流域社会经济持续发展的同时,也对整个流域生态系统产生了不可避免的人为影响.本文根据河流梯级开发的过程和流域生态系统的特征,分别综述了梯级开发对坝址区生态系统、流域库区小气候、河岸带生态系统、水生态系统、河流湿地和流域景观生态的主要影响,并提出了研究展望,如加强梯级开发对各生态因子影响后的连锁反应和累积效应研究;在水库群运行和联合调度时期,应加强正负生态效应综合影响作用的研究以及不同时空尺度条件下对流域生态系统演替发展和稳定等方面的研究.     

Trophic modelling of a New Zealand rocky reef ecosystem using simultaneous adjustment of diet, biomass and energetic parameters

We present a balanced model of organic carbon flows through a temperate coastal ecosystem in New Zealand. The Te Tapuwae o Rongokako Marine Reserve is a 2452 ha no-take area including both rocky reef platforms and soft sediment, and covering the intertidal and subtidal communities to depths of approximately 50 m. The model includes 22 trophic groups, including birds, predatory and grazing invertebrates, detritivores, five groups of fish, microphytes, macroalgae, zooplankton, phytoplankton, bacteria and detritus. Initial parameterisations of the model were developed from video, diver and quadrat surveys in the study area, augmented by parameters derived from simple population models and scientific literature. A novel two stage balancing methodology is presented which adjusts biomasses, diet fractions, and energetic parameters of all trophic groups simultaneously, taking into account estimated parameter uncertainties and the highly variable magnitudes of flows through different groups (6 orders of magnitude). Most adjustments to the initial parameters necessary to balance the trophic model were < 20%, but large adjustments were needed for poorly observed groups such as bacteria, sponge, and phytoplankton. The balanced model is recognised as being one solution amongst many. In the model, 94% of the primary production remained ungrazed and formed particulate and dissolved organic detritus. The balanced model indicated that the reserve is relatively impoverished in terms of grazers and predators relative to New Zealand rocky reefs to the north. The model suggests that lobsters, which have increased in numbers since the reserve was established, are responsible for substantial predation on invertebrate groups which make up their prey (grazing, predatory, phytal/infaunal invertebrates). The level of predation on invertebrates by lobster in the model depends significantly on the extent to which lobsters in TTMR are consuming macroalgae.     

Life on the margin: genetic isolation and diversity loss in a peripheral marine ecosystem, the Baltic Sea

Marginal populations are often isolated and under extreme selection pressures resulting in anomalous genetics. Consequently, ecosystems that are geographically and ecologically marginal might have a large share of genetically atypical populations, in need of particular concern in management of these ecosystems. To test this prediction, we analysed genetic data from 29 species inhabiting the low saline Baltic Sea, a geographically and ecologically marginal ecosystem. On average Baltic populations had lost genetic diversity compared to Atlantic populations: a pattern unrelated to dispersal capacity, generation time of species and taxonomic group of organism, but strongly related to type of genetic marker (mitochondrial DNA loci had lost c. 50% diversity, and nuclear loci 10%). Analyses of genetic isolation by geographic distance revealed clinal patterns of differentiation between Baltic and Atlantic regions. For a majority of species, clines were sigmoid with a sharp slope around the Baltic Sea entrance, indicating impeded gene flows between Baltic and Atlantic populations. Some species showed signs of allele frequencies being perturbed at the edge of their distribution inside the Baltic Sea. Despite the short geological history of the Baltic Sea (8000 years), populations inhabiting the Baltic have evolved substantially different from Atlantic populations, probably as a consequence of isolation and bottlenecks, as well as selection on adaptive traits. In addition, the Baltic Sea also acts a refuge for unique evolutionary lineages. This marginal ecosystem is thus vulnerable but also exceedingly valuable, housing unique genes, genotypes and populations that constitute an important genetic resource for management and conservation.     

Impact of the Asian monsoon climate on ecosystem carbon and water exchanges: a wavelet analysis and its ecosystem modeling implications

The monsoon system is an important natural driver of ecosystem carbon and water exchanges in Asia and is being altered by anthropogenic forcings. This system is accompanied by heavy rainfall and typhoons in the main growing season, thus causing alterations of environmental conditions such as rainfall, wind, and temperature; therefore, it acts as a natural disturbance to forests in Asia. Therefore, degradation of ecosystem service by monsoon activity reinforced by anthropogenic factors in a changing climate is of great concern. In this study, we presented observational evidences for the interplay of terrestrial carbon and water dynamics with the Asian monsoon and their implication in ecosystem modeling. We analyzed 3‐year eddy‐covariance data at a temperate deciduous forest in Korea. We used wavelet power and coherence spectra to investigate the Asian monsoon system and to determine its impact on the ecosystem. During the study period, our analysis showed strong coupling between ecosystem functioning and temporal variations of monsoon climate. Further scrutiny on the model outputs showed that the model did not accurately reproduce the observed plant phenology and thus ecosystem carbon and water exchanges disturbed by monsoon activities. Our findings suggest that under projected climate scenarios, terrestrial carbon sinks in monsoon Asia will decline if the monsoon disturbance will exceed its natural range of variation and if there is no enhancement in the robustness of the ecosystem in this region.