Changes in the trophic interactions and the community structure of Lake Taihu (China) ecosystem from the 1960s to 1990s

As the third largest freshwater lake in China, Lake Taihu has suffered from overfishing, eutrophication, and physical disturbance over the last several decades. Evaluating and quantifying changes in the ecosystem can help us better understand and develop hypotheses to explain the dynamics of the ecosystem. In this study, trophic interactions and community structure of commercial fisheries species of Lake Taihu ecosystem were analyzed and compared for three time periods (1961–1965, 1981–1987, and 1991–1995) using the Ecopath with Ecosim model with the aim of evaluating the changes in the population dynamics and ecosystem development mechanism spanning the period from the 1960s to 1990s. The results show that the biomass of large predators decreased over the three decades, while the biomass of small species increased. Increases in the P/B ratios and fishing mortality levels observed for species groups reveal rapidly intensifying fishery stress over the three decades. The fisheries operated at the highest trophic level during the 1980s, and there are some indications of “fishing down the food web” in this ecosystem between the 1980s and the 1990s. Drawing upon Odum’s theory of ecosystem maturity, the structured, web-like ecosystem of the 1960s developed into a highly mature system during the 1980s; yet, in the 1990s, this structure became less complex and the system’s maturity fell to its lowest observed level. During this period, the successional development of the system occurred in reverse.     

捕捞对北部湾海洋生态系统的影响

利用Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) 5.1软件构建了北部湾海洋生态系统1959—1960年的Ecosim模型,包含渔业、海洋哺乳动物、海鸟、中上层鱼类、底层鱼类、底栖无脊椎动物等20个功能组,通过与1997—1999年调查数据对比,分析了捕捞活动对北部湾生态系统的结构和功能的影响.结果表明：近40年来在捕捞强度不断增加的压力下,生态系统的结构和功能发生显著变化,长寿命、高营养级的肉食性鱼类生物量下降明显,系统以短寿命、小型鱼类和无脊椎动物占优势.1999年的大中型鱼类的生物量仅为1960年的6%,而小型鱼类和无脊椎动物则明显上升,尤其是头足类生物量上升了2.7倍,渔获物的营养级则从1960年的3.2降低到1999年的298,体现了“捕捞降低海洋食物网”的特点,目前的开发模式是不可持续的.利用20世纪90年代数据预测了降低捕捞压力后生态系统的变化.本研究证实了可以使用Ecosim模型预测捕捞压力对生态系统的影响.     

Ecological role and historical trends of large pelagic predators in a subtropical marine ecosystem of the South Atlantic

Large pelagic predators occupy high positions in food webs and could control lower trophic level species by direct and indirect ecological interactions. In this study we aimed to test the hypotheses: (1) pelagic predators are keystone species, and their removals could trigger impacts on the food chain; (2) higher landings of pelagic predators could trigger fishing impacts with time leading to a drop in the mean trophic level of catches; and (3) recovery in the pelagic predators populations, especially for sharks, could be achieved with fishing effort reduction. We performed a food web approach using an Ecopath with Ecosim model to represent the Southeastern and Southern Brazil, a subtropical marine ecosystem, in 2001. We then calibrated the baseline model using catch and fishing effort time series from 2001 to 2012. Afterwards, we simulated the impact of fishing effort changes on species and assessed the ecological impacts on the pelagic community from 2012 to 2025. Results showed that the model was well fitted to landing data for the majority of groups. The pelagic predators species were classified as keystone species impacting mainly on pelagic community. The ecosystem was resilient and fisheries seem sustainable at that time. However, the temporal simulation, from 2001 to 2012, revealed declines in the biomass of three sharks, tuna and billfish groups. It was possible observe declines in the mean trophic level of the catch and in the mean total length of landings. Longline fisheries particularly affected the sharks, billfish and swordfish, while hammerhead sharks were mostly impacted by gillnet fishery. Model simulations showed that large sharks’ biomasses could be recovered or maintained only after strong fishing effort reduction.     

Spatial indicators of fishing pressure: Preliminary analyses and possible developments

Ecological indicators of fishing pressure in space are an important part of the Data Collection Framework (DCF) established by the European Commission in its attempt to apply an ecosystem approach to fisheries. These indicators are devised to use the information provided by the Vessel Monitoring System, a mandatory tool for EU fishing vessels which allows to record fishing activity in space and time. This study reports and analyzes trends of DCF fishing pressure indicators in the years 2007–2010 for the Italian trawlers in seven Mediterranean geographic sub-areas and the related trends of landing per unit effort. In addition, new versions of these indicators are developed and their performances compared to the DCF ones by a simulation approach. The rationale for these new version of indicators is based on: (i) the development of a formal definition of “fishing ground”, allowing for innovative statistical analyses of fishing patterns in space and time; (ii) the revision of issues affecting DCF indicators. Results provide: (i) the first extensive documentation of space use by fisheries through time; (ii) evidences of subtle yet significant changes in fishing pattern which, in agreement to other studies, indirectly support a decline of fisheries resources in the Mediterranean; (iii) improved versions of DCF fishing pressure indicators, obtained via the identification and analysis of fishing grounds and the assessment of aggregation by Gini's G index. The latter point could mark an important progress in order to overcome some critical weakness evidenced by DCF indicators. Moreover, the statistical identification and analysis of fishing grounds could represent a valuable insight in quantitative investigations of fisheries impacts and effects, even beyond indicators computation.     

Fisheries impact on the East China Sea Shelf ecosystem for 1969–2000

An ecosystem model representing the continental shelf of the East China Sea was fitted to a time series of data available from 1969 to 2000 using Ecopath with Ecosim. We used a process-oriented model to explore the extent to which changes in marine resources and the ecosystem were driven by trophic interactions and fishing activities. Fishing effort was used to drive the model, and observed catches were compared with the predicted catches in modeling. A reduction in the sum of the squared deviations of the observed and predicted catches was used as a metric for calibrating and assessing the goodness-of-fit of the model. Trophodynamic indicators were used to explore the ecosystem’s structural and functional changes from 1969 to 2000. The model’s predictions were consistent with observed catches for most functional groups. Trophodynamic indicators suggest a degradation pattern over time: both the mean trophic level of community and a modified version of Kempton’s index of biodiversity decreased over the time, while the total flow to detritus and the loss of production due to fishing increased from 1969 to 2000. Additionally, the ratio of demersal/pelagic abundances decreased as a result of an overall decrease in the abundance of demersal species and increase in pelagic fish in the ecosystem.     

Food security and marine capture fisheries: characteristics, trends, drivers and future perspectives

World population is expected to grow from the present 6.8 billion people to about 9 billion by 2050. The growing need for nutritious and healthy food will increase the demand for fisheries products from marine sources, whose productivity is already highly stressed by excessive fishing pressure, growing organic pollution, toxic contamination, coastal degradation and climate change. Looking towards 2050, the question is how fisheries governance, and the national and international policy and legal frameworks within which it is nested, will ensure a sustainable harvest, maintain biodiversity and ecosystem functions, and adapt to climate change. This paper looks at global fisheries production, the state of resources, contribution to food security and governance. It describes the main changes affecting the sector, including geographical expansion, fishing capacity-building, natural variability, environmental degradation and climate change. It identifies drivers and future challenges, while suggesting how new science, policies and interventions could best address those challenges.     

Effects of climate‐driven primary production change on marine food webs: implications for fisheries and conservation

Climate change is altering the rate and distribution of primary production in the world's oceans. Primary production is critical to maintaining biodiversity and supporting fishery catches, but predicting the response of populations to primary production change is complicated by predation and competition interactions. We simulated the effects of change in primary production on diverse marine ecosystems across a wide latitudinal range in Australia using the marine food web model Ecosim. We link models of primary production of lower trophic levels (phytoplankton and benthic producers) under climate change with Ecosim to predict changes in fishery catch, fishery value, biomass of animals of conservation interest, and indicators of community composition. Under a plausible climate change scenario, primary production will increase around Australia and generally this benefits fisheries catch and value and leads to increased biomass of threatened marine animals such as turtles and sharks. However, community composition is not strongly affected. Sensitivity analyses indicate overall positive linear responses of functional groups to primary production change. Responses are robust to the ecosystem type and the complexity of the model used. However, model formulations with more complex predation and competition interactions can reverse the expected responses for some species, resulting in catch declines for some fished species and localized declines of turtle and marine mammal populations under primary productivity increases. We conclude that climate‐driven primary production change needs to be considered by marine ecosystem managers and more specifically, that production increases can simultaneously benefit fisheries and conservation. Greater focus on incorporating predation and competition interactions into models will significantly improve the ability to identify species and industries most at risk from climate change.     

Assessing the Contribution of Marine Protected Areas to the Trophic Functioning of Ecosystems: A Model for the Banc d’Arguin and the Mauritanian Shelf

Most modelling studies addressed the effectiveness of marine protected areas (MPA) for fisheries sustainability through single species approach. Only a few models analysed the potential benefits of MPAs at the ecosystem level, estimating the potential export of fish biomass from the reserve or analysing the trophic relationships between organisms inside and outside the MPA. Here, we propose to use food web models to assess the contribution of a MPA to the trophic functioning of a larger ecosystem. This approach is applied to the Banc d’Arguin National Park, a large MPA located on the Mauritanian shelf. The ecosystem was modeled using Ecopath with Ecosim, a model that accounts for fisheries, food web structure, and some aspects of the spatial distribution of species, for the period 1991–2006. Gaps in knowledge and uncertainty were taken into account by building three different models. Results showed that the Banc d’Arguin contributes about 9 to 13% to the total consumption, is supporting about 23% of the total production and 18% of the total catch of the Mauritanian shelf ecosystem, and up to 50% for coastal fish. Of the 29 exploited groups, 15 depend on the Banc for more than 30% of their direct or indirect consumptions. Between 1991 and 2006, the fishing pressure increased leading to a decrease in biomass and the catch of high trophic levels, confirming their overall overexploitation. Ecosim simulations showed that adding a new fleet in the Banc d’Arguin would have large impacts on the species with a high reliance on the Banc for food, resulting in a 23% decrease in the current outside MPA catches. We conclude on the usefulness of food web models to assess MPAs contribution to larger ecosystem functioning.     

Effects of fishing and acidification‐related benthic mortality on the southeast Australian marine ecosystem

Oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) is altering the carbonate chemistry of seawater, with potentially negative consequences for many calcifying marine organisms. At the same time, increasing fisheries exploitation is impacting on marine ecosystems. Here, using increased benthic‐invertebrate mortality as a proxy for effects of ocean acidification, the potential impact of the two stressors of fishing and acidification on the southeast Australian marine ecosystem to year 2050 was explored. The individual and interaction effects of the two stressors on biomass and diversity were examined for the entire ecosystem and for regional assemblages. For 61 functional groups or species, the cumulative effects of moderate ocean acidification and fishing were additive (30%), synergistic (33%), and antagonistic (37%). Strong ocean acidification resulted in additive (22%), synergistic (40%), and antagonistic (38%) effects. The greatest impact was on the demersal food web, with fishing impacting predation and acidification affecting benthic production. Areas that have been subject to intensive fishing were the most susceptible to acidification effect, although fishing also mitigated some of the decline in biodiversity observed with moderate acidification. The model suggested that ocean acidification and long‐term fisheries exploitation could act synergistically with the increasing sensitivity to change from long‐term (decades) fisheries exploitation potentially causing unexpected restructuring of the pelagic and demersal food webs. Major regime shifts occur around year 2040. Greater focus is needed on how differential fisheries exploitation of marine resources may exacerbate or accelerate effects of environmental changes such as ocean acidification.     

Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web

Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large‐scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multimodel approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient‐climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat‐dominated ecosystem, whereas low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod‐dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, nonlinearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem‐based management context.     

黄河口邻近水域贝类生态容量

黄河口邻近水域是著名的贝类生产区,四角蛤蜊、菲律宾蛤仔、文蛤等是该海域重要的增养殖品种.目前,贝类底播养殖最高年产量达30万t,实现产值15.4亿元.然而,贝类过度增殖,将引起海域环境的变化,继而导致贝类死亡率的增加,影响生态系统的健康.因此,基于生态系统的贝类生态容量评估至关重要.本研究利用Ecopath with Ecosim软件构建了黄河口邻近水域生态系统营养通道模型,在此基础上分析了该生态系统功能群间的相互影响、生态系统的总体状态,并评估了贝类的生态容量.结果表明: 系统的总初级生产量/总呼吸(TPP/TR)为3.45、总初级生产量/总生物量(TPP/B)为38.91,同时具有较低的循环指数(FCI=0.028)、较高的剩余生产量961.24 t·km^-2·a^-1和较低的系统连接指数(CI=0.38),说明该系统目前处于发育的不稳定期.贝类生物量的增加对虾虎鱼、虾类和蟹类有正影响, 对中上层鱼类、底层鱼类、海蜇、浮游动物等功能群有负影响.当前贝类的生物量是5.5 t·km^-2,有一定的增殖潜力.模型估算得出的贝类生态容量是18.22 t·km^-2,该研究结果可为黄河口邻近水域渔业资源的可持续发展提供管理依据.     

Quantifying heterogeneous responses of fish community size structure using novel combined statistical techniques

To understand changes in ecosystems, the appropriate scale at which to study them must be determined. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) cover thousands of square kilometres and are a useful classification scheme for ecosystem monitoring and assessment. However, averaging across LMEs may obscure intricate dynamics within. The purpose of this study is to mathematically determine local and regional patterns of ecological change within an LME using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). After using EOFs to define regions with distinct patterns of change, a statistical model originating from control theory is applied (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Average with eXogenous input – NARMAX) to assess potential drivers of change within these regions. We have selected spatial data sets (0.5° latitude × 1°longitude) of fish abundance from North Sea fisheries research surveys (spanning 1980–2008) as well as of temperature, oxygen, net primary production and a fishing pressure proxy, to which we apply the EOF and NARMAX methods. Two regions showed significant changes since 1980: the central North Sea displayed a decrease in community size structure which the NARMAX model suggested was linked to changes in fishing; and the Norwegian trench region displayed an increase in community size structure which, as indicated by NARMAX results, was primarily linked to changes in sea‐bottom temperature. These regions were compared to an area of no change along the eastern Scottish coast where the model determined the community size structure was most strongly associated to net primary production. This study highlights the multifaceted effects of environmental change and fishing pressures in different regions of the North Sea. Furthermore, by highlighting this spatial heterogeneity in community size structure change, important local spatial dynamics are often overlooked when the North Sea is considered as a broad‐scale, homogeneous ecosystem (as normally is the case within the political Marine Strategy Framework Directive).     

Fisheries in the Southern Ocean: an ecosystem approach

The Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) is bound by its Article II, 3 to follow an ecosystem approach to management. This approach has been extended to the application of a precautionary approach in the late 1980s. In our review, we deal primarily with the science-related aspects of CCAMLR and its development towards an ecosystem approach to the management of the living resources of the Southern Ocean. To assist the Commission in meeting its objectives, as set out in Article II, 3, the Scientific Committee established the CCAMLR Ecosystem Monitoring Programme to detect possible effects of krill fishing on the performance of top-level predators, such as albatrosses, penguins, petrels and fur seals. Fisheries in the Southern Ocean followed the fate of other fisheries worldwide in which target species were depleted to low level one after the other. Currently, two types of fisheries are open: the longline fisheries on Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) and Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) and the trawl fisheries on mackerel icefish (Champsocephalus gunnari). Both fisheries are managed in a single-species context, however, with conservation measures in place to protect by-catch species, such as rattails (Macrouridae) and skates and rays (Rajidae). Two major problems still exist in fisheries in the Southern Ocean: the by-catch of birds in longline fisheries primarily in the Indian Ocean and the high level of IUU fishing again in the Indian Ocean. Both, the by-catch of birds and high IUU catches undermine the credibility of CCAMLR to safeguard the marine living resources in the Southern Ocean.     

The Role of Eelgrass in Marine Community Interactions and Ecosystem Services: Results from Ecosystem-Scale Food Web Models

Eelgrass beds provide valuable refuge, foraging, and spawning habitat for many marine species, including valued species such as Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi), and Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister). We used dynamic simulations in a food web model of central Puget Sound, Washington, USA developed in the Ecopath with Ecosim software, to examine how the marine community may respond to changes in coverage of native eelgrass (Zostera marina), and how these modeled responses can be assessed using an ecosystem services framework, expressing these services with economic currencies in some cases and biological proxies in others. Increased eelgrass coverage was most associated with increases in commercial and recreational fishing with some small decreases in one non-market activity, bird watching. When we considered ecosystem service categories that are aggregations of individual groups of species, we saw little evidence of strong tradeoffs among marine resources; that is, increasing eelgrass coverage was essentially either positive or neutral for all services we examined, although we did not examine terrestrial activities (for example, land use) that affect eelgrass coverage. Within particular service categories, however, we found cases where the responses to changes in eelgrass of individual groups of species that provide the same type of ecosystem service differed both in the magnitude and in the direction of change. This emphasizes the care that should be taken in combining multiple examples of a particular type of ecosystem service into an aggregate measure of that service.     

The potential impact of labor choices on the efficacy of marine conservation strategies

Conservation of marine resources is critical to the wellbeing of human communities. Coastal artisanal fishing communities are particularly reliant on marine resources for food and for their livelihoods. Management actions aimed at marine conservation may lead to unanticipated changes in human behavior that influence the ability of conservation programs to achieve their goals. We examine how marine conservation strategies may impact labor decisions that influence both the ecosystem and human livelihoods using simulation modeling. We consider two conservation strategies in the model: direct action through fisheries regulation enforcement, and indirect action through land conservation. Our results indicate that both strategies can increase the abundance of fish, and thus contribute to the maintenance of marine resources. However, our results also show that marine fisheries enforcement may negatively impact the livelihoods of human communities. Land conservation, on the other hand, potentially enhances the livelihood of the human populations. Thus, depending on management objectives, indirect or a combination of direct and indirect conservation strategies may be effective at achieving conservation and sustainability goals. These results highlight the importance of accounting for changes in human behavior resulting from management actions in conservation and management.     

An ecological model of the artificial ecosystem (northern Hangzhou Bay,China): analysis of ecosystem structure and fishing impacts

The artificial ecosystem is a large-scale enclosure in northern Hangzhou Bay, China. Using the Ecopath with Ecosim software, a trophic structure model is constructed for 2006–2007 to characterize the food web structure, functioning, and describing the ecosystem impacts of fishing. Input information for the model were gathered from published and unpublished reports and from our own estimates during the period 2006–2007. Pedigree work and simple sensitivity analysis were carried out to evaluate the quality and the uncertainty of the model. Results show that the food web in the enclosed sea area was dominated by a detritus pathway. The trophic levels of the groups varied from 1.00 for primary producers and detritus to 3.90 for piscivorous fish in the artificial system. Using network analysis, the system network was mapped into a linear food chain, and five discrete trophic levels were found with a mean transfer efficiency of 9.8% from detritus, 9.4% from primary producer within the ecosystem. The geometric mean of the trophic transfer efficiencies was 9.5%. Detritus contributed 57% of the total energy flux, and the other 43% came from primary producers. The ecosystem maturity indices-TPP/TR (total primary production/total respiration), FCI (Finn cycling index), A (ascendancy) and TB/TDET were 2.672, 25%, 31.5%, and 0.013, respectively, showing that the artificial system is at developmental stage according to Odum’s theory of ecosystem development. The ‘Keystoneness’ result indicates that herbivorous zooplankton was identified as keystone species in this system. Furthermore, a simple dynamical simulation was preformed for varying fishing mortality over 10 years. The biomass of most fish groups has a small increase when the fishing mortality at current level. Increasing fishing mortality by twofold resulted in a marked decrease in biomass of piscivorous fish accompanied by an increase in that of other fish groups, notable zooplanktivorous fish. Generally, this study represents the first attempt to evaluate the food web structure and the potential effects of fisheries in the artificial coastal ecosystem. It is concluded that this model is a potential tool for use in the management of the artificial ecosystem in northern Hangzhou Bay.     

Effects of fishing and regional species pool on the functional diversity of fish communities

The potential population and community level impacts of fishing have received considerable attention, but little is known about how fishing influences communities' functional diversity at regional scales. We examined how estimates of functional diversity differed among 25 regions of variable richness and investigated the functional consequences of removing species targeted by commercial fisheries. Our study shows that fishing leads to substantial losses in functional diversity. The magnitude of such loss was, however, reduced in the more speciose regions. Moreover, the removal of commercially targeted species caused a much larger reduction in functional diversity than expected by random species deletions, which was a consequence of the selective nature of fishing for particular species traits. Results suggest that functional redundancy is spatially variable, that richer biotas provide some degree of insurance against the impact of fishing on communities' functional diversity and that fishing predominantly selects for particular species traits. Understanding how fishing impacts community functional diversity is key to predict its effects for biodiversity as well as ecosystem functioning.     

Concepts and issues in marine ecosystem management

Ecosystem management means different things to different people, but the underlying concept is similar to that of the long-standing ethic of conservation. Current interest in marine ecosystem management stems from concerns about overexploitation of world fisheries and the perceived need for broader perspectives in fisheries management. A central scientific question is whether the effects of harvesting (top down) or changes in the physical environment (bottom up) are responsible for major changes in abundance.Historically, ecology, fisheries biology, oceanography, fisheries management and the fishing industry have gone somewhat separate ways. Since the 1980s, increasing attention has been given to multispecies aspects of fisheries, the linkages between oceanography and fish abundance and more holistic approaches to fisheries management.Sorting out the causes and effects of fluctuations in fish abundance is complicated by the lack of reliability of fisheries statistics. Discards, dishonesty and the inherent logistic difficulties of collecting statistics all combine to confuse interpretation. The overcapacity of fishing fleets and their unrestricted use are widely recognized as a contributing cause to overfishing and declines in fish stocks in many parts of the world.Ecosystem management, as shorthand for more holistic approaches to resource management, is, from a fisheries management perspective, centred on multispecies interactions in the context of a variable physical and chemical environment. Broader perspectives include social, economic and political elements which are best considered pragmatically as a part of the context of fisheries management.Objectives in marine ecosystem management are varied. From a biological perspective, an underlying principle of management is commonly assumed to be a sustained yield of products for human consumption. Whether that should be taken to mean that the yield should always be of the same products is less certain. Fishing commonly changes the relative abundance of species of fishes. Thus, a biological objective should specify the species mix that is desired.Concern for the maintenance of global diversity has generated a substantial literature on threatened and endangered species. In general, it has not been considered likely that marine fish species could be rendered extinct and greatest attention has been given to marine mammals, sea birds and sea turtles. The provision of marine parks and sanctuary areas are obvious first steps in providing a measure of protection, at least for the less widely ranging species.Related to the current concepts of ecosystem management are expressions such as ecosystem health and ecosystem integrity which are given a wide range of different meanings, none of which are readily translated into operational language for resource management. These and similar expressions are best assessed as rhetorical devices. The essential components of ecosystem management are sustainable yield, maintenance of biodiversity and protection from the effects of pollution and habitat degradation.Theory for marine ecosystem management has a long history in fisheries and ecological literature. Ecological models such as Lotka-Volterra equations, ECOPATH, trophic cascades and chaos theory do not give practical guidance for management. Fleet interaction and multispecies virtual population analysis models hold more promise for fisheries managers.Alaska provides particular opportunities for developing new concepts in fisheries management. Statistics of catch are good, stock assessments are at the state-of-the-art level and management has been prudent. Debate is active on the causes of substantial changes in abundance of many species including marine mammals, because substantial changes in the fisheries have been accompanied by major changes in oceanographic conditions.As elsewhere, the resultant changes may be a consequence of top-down and bottom-up effects. The bottom part is beyond human control, and ecosystem management is centred on managing the top-down or fisheries component in the context of special measures of protection for particular species.Whether that is a realistic goal depends in part on how much special protection is to be afforded to which species. Marine mammals, for example, are given high priority for special protection, but like fisheries they too may have significant roles in shaping the structure of marine ecosystems. Eventually, ecosystem management must come to grips with the question of how much protection of particular species is desirable in achieving optimal use of living marine resources.     

The Role of Pre-Existing Disturbances in the Effect of Marine Reserves on Coastal Ecosystems: A Modelling Approach

We have used an end-to-end ecosystem model to explore responses over 30 years to coastal no-take reserves covering up to 6% of the fifty thousand square kilometres of continental shelf and slope off the coast of New South Wales (Australia). The model is based on the Atlantis framework, which includes a deterministic, spatially resolved three-dimensional biophysical model that tracks nutrient flows through key biological groups, as well as extraction by a range of fisheries. The model results support previous empirical studies in finding clear benefits of reserves to top predators such as sharks and rays throughout the region, while also showing how many of their major prey groups (including commercial species) experienced significant declines. It was found that the net impact of marine reserves was dependent on the pre-existing levels of disturbance (i.e. fishing pressure), and to a lesser extent on the size of the marine reserves. The high fishing scenario resulted in a strongly perturbed system, where the introduction of marine reserves had clear and mostly direct effects on biomass and functional biodiversity. However, under the lower fishing pressure scenario, the introduction of marine reserves caused both direct positive effects, mainly on shark groups, and indirect negative effects through trophic cascades. Our study illustrates the need to carefully align the design and implementation of marine reserves with policy and management objectives. Trade-offs may exist not only between fisheries and conservation objectives, but also among conservation objectives.