Experimental evaluation of evolution and coevolution as agents of ecosystem change in Trinidadian streams

Evolution has been shown to be a critical determinant of ecological processes in some systems, but its importance relative to traditional ecological effects is not well known. In addition, almost nothing is known about the role of coevolution in shaping ecosystem function. Here, we experimentally evaluated the relative effects of species invasion (a traditional ecological effect), evolution and coevolution on ecosystem processes in Trinidadian streams. We manipulated the presence and population-of-origin of two common fish species, the guppy (Poecilia reticulata) and the killifish (Rivulus hartii). We measured epilithic algal biomass and accrual, aquatic invertebrate biomass, and detrital decomposition. Our results show that, for some ecosystem responses, the effects of evolution and coevolution were larger than the effects of species invasion. Guppy evolution in response to alternative predation regimes significantly influenced algal biomass and accrual rates. Guppies from a high-predation site caused an increase in algae relative to guppies from a low-predation site; algae effects were probably shaped by observed divergence in rates of nutrient excretion and algae consumption. Rivulus–guppy coevolution significantly influenced the biomass of aquatic invertebrates. Locally coevolved populations reduced invertebrate biomass relative to non-coevolved populations. These results challenge the general assumption that intraspecific diversity is a less critical determinant of ecosystem function than is interspecific diversity. Given existing evidence for contemporary evolution in these fish species, our findings suggest considerable potential for eco-evolutionary feedbacks to operate as populations adapt to natural or anthropogenic perturbations.     

Interpopulation variation in a fish predator drives evolutionary divergence in prey in lakes

Ecological factors are known to cause evolutionary diversification. Recent work has shown that evolution in strongly interacting predator species has reciprocal impacts on ecosystems. These divergent impacts of predators may alter the selective landscape and cause the evolution of prey. Yet, this link between intraspecific variation and evolution is unexplored. We compared the life history of a species of zooplankton (Daphnia ambigua) from lakes in New England in which the dominant planktivorous predator, the alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), differs in feeding traits and migratory behaviour. Anadromous alewife (seasonal migrants) exhibit larger gapes, gill-raker spacing and target larger prey than landlocked alewife (year-round freshwater resident). In 'anadromous' lakes, Daphnia are abundant in the spring but extirpated by alewife predation in summer. Daphnia are rare year-round in 'landlocked' lakes. We show that Daphnia from lakes with anadromous alewife grew faster, matured earlier but at the same size and produced more offspring than Daphnia from lakes with landlocked or no alewife across multiple temperature and resource treatments. Our results are inconsistent with a response to size-selective predation but are better explained as an adaptation to colder temperatures and shorter periods of development (countergradient variation) mediated by seasonal alewife predation.     

Eco-evolutionary dynamics: disentangling phenotypic,environmental and population fluctuations

Decomposing variation in population growth into contributions from both ecological and evolutionary processes is of fundamental concern, particularly in a world characterized by rapid responses to anthropogenic threats. Although the impact of ecological change on evolutionary response has long been acknowledged, the converse has predominantly been neglected, especially empirically. By applying a recently published conceptual framework, we assess and contrast the relative importance of phenotypic and environmental variability on annual population growth in five ungulate populations. In four of the five populations, the contribution of phenotypic variability was greater than the contribution of environmental variability, although not significantly so. The similarity in the contributions of environment and phenotype suggests that neither is worthy of neglect. Population growth is a consequence of multiple processes, which strengthens arguments advocating integrated approaches to assess how populations respond to their environments.     

Eco-evolutionary feedbacks,adaptive dynamics and evolutionary rescue theory

Adaptive dynamics theory has been devised to account for feedbacks between ecological and evolutionary processes. Doing so opens new dimensions to and raises new challenges about evolutionary rescue. Adaptive dynamics theory predicts that successive trait substitutions driven by eco-evolutionary feedbacks can gradually erode population size or growth rate, thus potentially raising the extinction risk. Even a single trait substitution can suffice to degrade population viability drastically at once and cause ‘evolutionary suicide’. In a changing environment, a population may track a viable evolutionary attractor that leads to evolutionary suicide, a phenomenon called ‘evolutionary trapping’. Evolutionary trapping and suicide are commonly observed in adaptive dynamics models in which the smooth variation of traits causes catastrophic changes in ecological state. In the face of trapping and suicide, evolutionary rescue requires that the population overcome evolutionary threats generated by the adaptive process itself. Evolutionary repellors play an important role in determining how variation in environmental conditions correlates with the occurrence of evolutionary trapping and suicide, and what evolutionary pathways rescue may follow. In contrast with standard predictions of evolutionary rescue theory, low genetic variation may attenuate the threat of evolutionary suicide and small population sizes may facilitate escape from evolutionary traps.     

Eco-evolutionary dynamics

Evolutionary ecologists and population biologists have recently considered that ecological and evolutionary changes are intimately linked and can occur on the same time-scale. Recent theoretical developments have shown how the feedback between ecological and evolutionary dynamics can be linked, and there are now empirical demonstrations showing that ecological change can lead to rapid evolutionary change. We also have evidence that microevolutionary change can leave an ecological signature. We are at a stage where the integration of ecology and evolution is a necessary step towards major advances in our understanding of the processes that shape and maintain biodiversity. This special feature about ‘eco-evolutionary dynamics’ brings together biologists from empirical and theoretical backgrounds to bridge the gap between ecology and evolution and provide a series of contributions aimed at quantifying the interactions between these fundamental processes.     

Eco-evolutionary feedbacks in community and ecosystem ecology: interactions between the ecological theatre and the evolutionary play

Interactions between natural selection and environmental change are well recognized and sit at the core of ecology and evolutionary biology. Reciprocal interactions between ecology and evolution, eco-evolutionary feedbacks, are less well studied, even though they may be critical for understanding the evolution of biological diversity, the structure of communities and the function of ecosystems. Eco-evolutionary feedbacks require that populations alter their environment (niche construction) and that those changes in the environment feed back to influence the subsequent evolution of the population. There is strong evidence that organisms influence their environment through predation, nutrient excretion and habitat modification, and that populations evolve in response to changes in their environment at time-scales congruent with ecological change (contemporary evolution). Here, we outline how the niche construction and contemporary evolution interact to alter the direction of evolution and the structure and function of communities and ecosystems. We then present five empirical systems that highlight important characteristics of eco-evolutionary feedbacks: rotifer–algae chemostats; alewife–zooplankton interactions in lakes; guppy life-history evolution and nutrient cycling in streams; avian seed predators and plants; and tree leaf chemistry and soil processes. The alewife–zooplankton system provides the most complete evidence for eco-evolutionary feedbacks, but other systems highlight the potential for eco-evolutionary feedbacks in a wide variety of natural systems.     

Adaptive genetic variation mediates bottom-up and top-down control in an aquatic ecosystem

Research in eco-evolutionary dynamics and community genetics has demonstrated that variation within a species can have strong impacts on associated communities and ecosystem processes. Yet, these studies have centred around individual focal species and at single trophic levels, ignoring the role of phenotypic variation in multiple taxa within an ecosystem. Given the ubiquitous nature of local adaptation, and thus intraspecific variation, we sought to understand how combinations of intraspecific variation in multiple species within an ecosystem impacts its ecology. Using two species that co-occur and demonstrate adaptation to their natal environments, black cottonwood (Populus trichocarpa) and three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus), we investigated the effects of intraspecific phenotypic variation on both top-down and bottom-up forces using a large-scale aquatic mesocosm experiment. Black cottonwood genotypes exhibit genetic variation in their productivity and consequently their leaf litter subsidies to the aquatic system, which mediates the strength of top-down effects from stickleback on prey abundances. Abundances of four common invertebrate prey species and available phosphorous, the most critically limiting nutrient in freshwater systems, are dictated by the interaction between genetic variation in cottonwood productivity and stickleback morphology. These interactive effects fit with ecological theory on the relationship between productivity and top-down control and are comparable in strength to the effects of predator addition. Our results illustrate that intraspecific variation, which can evolve rapidly, is an under-appreciated driver of community structure and ecosystem function, demonstrating that a multi-trophic perspective is essential to understanding the role of evolution in structuring ecological patterns.     

Genetic and physiological bases for phenological responses to current and predicted climates

We are now reaching the stage at which specific genetic factors with known physiological effects can be tied directly and quantitatively to variation in phenology. With such a mechanistic understanding, scientists can better predict phenological responses to novel seasonal climates. Using the widespread model species Arabidopsis thaliana, we explore how variation in different genetic pathways can be linked to phenology and life-history variation across geographical regions and seasons. We show that the expression of phenological traits including flowering depends critically on the growth season, and we outline an integrated life-history approach to phenology in which the timing of later life-history events can be contingent on the environmental cues regulating earlier life stages. As flowering time in many plants is determined by the integration of multiple environmentally sensitive gene pathways, the novel combinations of important seasonal cues in projected future climates will alter how phenology responds to variation in the flowering time gene network with important consequences for plant life history. We discuss how phenology models in other systems—both natural and agricultural—could employ a similar framework to explore the potential contribution of genetic variation to the physiological integration of cues determining phenology.     

A dimensionless number for understanding the evolutionary dynamics of antigenically variable RNA viruses

Antigenically variable RNA viruses are significant contributors to the burden of infectious disease worldwide. One reason for their ubiquity is their ability to escape herd immunity through rapid antigenic evolution and thereby to reinfect previously infected hosts. However, the ways in which these viruses evolve antigenically are highly diverse. Some have only limited diversity in the long-run, with every emergence of a new antigenic variant coupled with a replacement of the older variant. Other viruses rapidly accumulate antigenic diversity over time. Others still exhibit dynamics that can be considered evolutionary intermediates between these two extremes. Here, we present a theoretical framework that aims to understand these differences in evolutionary patterns by considering a virus's epidemiological dynamics in a given host population. Our framework, based on a dimensionless number, probabilistically anticipates patterns of viral antigenic diversification and thereby quantifies a virus's evolutionary potential. It is therefore similar in spirit to the basic reproduction number, the well-known dimensionless number which quantifies a pathogen's reproductive potential. We further outline how our theoretical framework can be applied to empirical viral systems, using influenza A/H3N2 as a case study. We end with predictions of our framework and work that remains to be done to further integrate viral evolutionary dynamics with disease ecology.     

Phenotypic variation,sexual reproduction and evolutionary population dynamics

I studied the effects of introducing phenotypic variation into a well-known single species model for a population with discrete, non-overlapping generations. The phenotypes differed in their dynamic behaviour. The analysis was made under the assumption that the population was in an evolutionary stable state. Differences in the timing of the competitive impacts of the phenotypes on each other had a strong simplifying effect on the dynamics. This result could also be applied to competition between species. The effect of sexual reproduction on the dynamics of the population was analysed by assuming the simplest genetic model of one locus with two alleles. Sexual reproduction made the system much more stable in the (mathematical) sense that the number of attractors was reduced and their basins of attraction enlarged. In a dominant system sex tended to increase the frequency of the recessive allele, and in an overdominant system it induced gene frequencies of 1/2. Whether the attractors in the dominant system tended to be simpler or more complex than the attractors in the asexual system depended on the phenotype of the recessive homozygote. The overdominant sexual system tended to have simpler dynamics than the corresponding asexual population. A 2-locus model was used to study whether sexuals can invade an asexual population and vice versa. One locus coded for sexual and asexual reproduction, while the other coded for the dynamics. Enhanced stability through sexual reproduction seemed to be the reason why there was a clear asymmetry favouring sex in this evolutionary context.     

Root dynamics and global change: seeking an ecosystem perspective

Changes in the production and turnover of roots in forests and grasslands in response to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, elevated temperatures, altered precipitation, or nitrogen deposition could be a key link between plant responses and longer-term changes in soil organic matter and ecosystem carbon balance. Here we summarize the experimental observations, ideas, and new hypotheses developed in this area in the rest of this volume. Three central questions are posed. Do elevated atmospheric CO₂, nitrogen deposition, and climatic change alter the dynamics of root production and mortality? What are the consequences of root responses to plant physiological processes? What are the implications of root dynamics to soil microbial communities and the fate of carbon in soil? Ecosystem-level observations of root production and mortality in response to global change parameters are just starting to emerge. The challenge to root biologists is to overcome the profound methodological and analytical problems and assemble a more comprehensive data set with sufficient ancillary data that differences between ecosystems can be explained. The assemblage of information reported herein on global patterns of root turnover, basic root biology that controls responses to environmental variables, and new observations of root and associated microbial responses to atmospheric and climatic change helps to sharpen our questions and stimulate new research approaches. New hypotheses have been developed to explain why responses of root turnover might differ in contrasting systems, how carbon allocation to roots is controlled, and how species differences in root chemistry might explain the ultimate fate of carbon in soil. These hypotheses and the enthusiasm for pursuing them are based on the firm belief that a deeper understanding of root dynamics is critical to describing the integrated response of ecosystems to global change.     

Evolve III: A discrete events model of an evolutionary ecosystem

Evolve III is a discrete events model of an evolutionary ecosystem. The model includes three levels of organization: population, organism and genetic structure. Each of these components was modeled independently, so that selective replacement of subsystems can be used to create families of models capable of testing alternative hypotheses about the real system. To demonstrate the use of the model we describe an experiment on the relationship between adaptability of populations and the variability of the environment. Populations cultured in a constant environment usually dominated those cultured in a variable environment when both were placed in a variable environment at an early stage of development, whereas the opposite is the case at later stages of development. This agrees with experiments on laboratory microcosms and lends credence to the potential predictive value of the model.     

Predators modify the evolutionary response of prey to temperature change

As climate regimes shift in many ecosystems worldwide, evolution may be a critical process allowing persistence in rapidly changing environments. Organisms regularly interact with other species, yet whether climate-mediated evolution can occur in the context of species interactions is not well understood. We tested whether a species interaction could modify evolutionary responses to temperature. We demonstrate that predation pressure by Dipteran larvae (Chaoborus americanus) modified the evolutionary response of a freshwater crustacean (Daphnia pulex) to its thermal environment over approximately seven generations in laboratory conditions. Daphnia kept at 21°C evolved higher population growth rates than those kept at 18°C, but only in those populations that were also reared with predators. Furthermore, predator-mediated selection resulted in the evolution of elevated Daphnia thermal plasticity. This laboratory natural selection experiment demonstrates that biotic interactions can modify evolutionary adaptation to temperature. Understanding the interplay between multiple selective forces can improve predictions of ecological and evolutionary responses of organisms to rapid environmental change.     

Between migration load and evolutionary rescue: dispersal,adaptation and the response of spatially structured populations to environmental change

The evolutionary potential of populations is mainly determined by population size and available genetic variance. However, the adaptability of spatially structured populations may also be affected by dispersal: positively by spreading beneficial mutations across sub-populations, but negatively by moving locally adapted alleles between demes. We develop an individual-based, two-patch, allelic model to investigate the balance between these opposing effects on a population''s evolutionary response to rapid climate change. Individual fitness is controlled by two polygenic traits coding for local adaptation either to the environment or to climate. Under conditions of selection that favour the evolution of a generalist phenotype (i.e. weak divergent selection between patches) dispersal has an overall positive effect on the persistence of the population. However, when selection favours locally adapted specialists, the beneficial effects of dispersal outweigh the associated increase in maladaptation for a narrow range of parameter space only (intermediate selection strength and low linkage among loci), where the spread of beneficial climate alleles is not strongly hampered by selection against non-specialists. Given that local selection across heterogeneous and fragmented landscapes is common, the complex effect of dispersal that we describe will play an important role in determining the evolutionary dynamics of many species under rapidly changing climate.     

Sex,long life and the evolutionary transition to cooperative breeding in birds

Long life is a typical feature of individuals living in cooperative societies. One explanation is that group living lowers mortality, which selects for longer life. Alternatively, long life may make the evolution of cooperation more likely by ensuring a long breeding tenure, making helping behaviour and queuing for breeding positions worthwhile. The benefit of queuing will, however, depend on whether individuals gain indirect fitness benefits while helping, which is determined by female promiscuity. Where promiscuity is high and therefore the indirect fitness benefits of helping are low, cooperation can still be favoured by an even longer life span. We present the results of comparative analyses designed to test the likelihood of a causal relationship between longevity and cooperative breeding by reconstructing ancestral states of cooperative breeding across birds, and by examining the effect of female promiscuity on the relationship between these two traits. We found that long life makes the evolution of cooperation more likely and that promiscuous cooperative species are exceptionally long lived. These results make sense of promiscuity in cooperative breeders and clarify the importance of life-history traits in the evolution of cooperative breeding, illustrating that cooperation can evolve via the combination of indirect and direct fitness benefits.     

The evolutionary dynamics of influenza A virus adaptation to mammalian hosts

Few questions on infectious disease are more important than understanding how and why avian influenza A viruses successfully emerge in mammalian populations, yet little is known about the rate and nature of the virus’ genetic adaptation in new hosts. Here, we measure, for the first time, the genomic rate of adaptive evolution of swine influenza viruses (SwIV) that originated in birds. By using a curated dataset of more than 24 000 human and swine influenza gene sequences, including 41 newly characterized genomes, we reconstructed the adaptive dynamics of three major SwIV lineages (Eurasian, EA; classical swine, CS; triple reassortant, TR). We found that, following the transfer of the EA lineage from birds to swine in the late 1970s, EA virus genes have undergone substantially faster adaptive evolution than those of the CS lineage, which had circulated among swine for decades. Further, the adaptation rates of the EA lineage antigenic haemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes were unexpectedly high and similar to those observed in human influenza A. We show that the successful establishment of avian influenza viruses in swine is associated with raised adaptive evolution across the entire genome for many years after zoonosis, reflecting the contribution of multiple mutations to the coordinated optimization of viral fitness in a new environment. This dynamics is replicated independently in the polymerase genes of the TR lineage, which established in swine following separate transmission from non-swine hosts.     

Limited potential for adaptation to climate change in a broadly distributed marine crustacean

The extent to which acclimation and genetic adaptation might buffer natural populations against climate change is largely unknown. Most models predicting biological responses to environmental change assume that species' climatic envelopes are homogeneous both in space and time. Although recent discussions have questioned this assumption, few empirical studies have characterized intraspecific patterns of genetic variation in traits directly related to environmental tolerance limits. We test the extent of such variation in the broadly distributed tidepool copepod Tigriopus californicus using laboratory rearing and selection experiments to quantify thermal tolerance and scope for adaptation in eight populations spanning more than 17° of latitude. Tigriopus californicus exhibit striking local adaptation to temperature, with less than 1 per cent of the total quantitative variance for thermal tolerance partitioned within populations. Moreover, heat-tolerant phenotypes observed in low-latitude populations cannot be achieved in high-latitude populations, either through acclimation or 10 generations of strong selection. Finally, in four populations there was no increase in thermal tolerance between generations 5 and 10 of selection, suggesting that standing variation had already been depleted. Thus, plasticity and adaptation appear to have limited capacity to buffer these isolated populations against further increases in temperature. Our results suggest that models assuming a uniform climatic envelope may greatly underestimate extinction risk in species with strong local adaptation.     

Modelling single nucleotide effects in phosphoglucose isomerase on dispersal in the Glanville fritillary butterfly: coupling of ecological and evolutionary dynamics

Dispersal comprises a complex life-history syndrome that influences the demographic dynamics of especially those species that live in fragmented landscapes, the structure of which may in turn be expected to impose selection on dispersal. We have constructed an individual-based evolutionary sexual model of dispersal for species occurring as metapopulations in habitat patch networks. The model assumes correlated random walk dispersal with edge-mediated behaviour (habitat selection) and spatially correlated stochastic local dynamics. The model is parametrized with extensive data for the Glanville fritillary butterfly. Based on empirical results for a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) gene, we assume that dispersal rate in the landscape matrix, fecundity and survival are affected by a locus with two alleles, A and C, individuals with the C allele being more mobile. The model was successfully tested with two independent empirical datasets on spatial variation in Pgi allele frequency. First, at the level of local populations, the frequency of the C allele is the highest in newly established isolated populations and the lowest in old isolated populations. Second, at the level of sub-networks with dissimilar numbers and connectivities of patches, the frequency of C increases with decreasing network size and hence with decreasing average metapopulation size. The frequency of C is the highest in landscapes where local extinction risk is high and where there are abundant opportunities to establish new populations. Our results indicate that the strength of the coupling of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics depends on the spatial scale and is asymmetric, demographic dynamics having a greater immediate impact on genetic dynamics than vice versa.     

Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters

Climate change science is increasingly concerned with methods for managing and integrating sources of uncertainty from emission storylines, climate model projections, and ecosystem model parameterizations. In tropical ecosystems, regional climate projections and modeled ecosystem responses vary greatly, leading to a significant source of uncertainty in global biogeochemical accounting and possible future climate feedbacks. Here, we combine an ensemble of IPCC‐AR4 climate change projections for the Amazon Basin (eight general circulation models) with alternative ecosystem parameter sets for the dynamic global vegetation model, LPJmL. We evaluate LPJmL simulations of carbon stocks and fluxes against flux tower and aboveground biomass datasets for individual sites and the entire basin. Variability in LPJmL model sensitivity to future climate change is primarily related to light and water limitations through biochemical and water‐balance‐related parameters. Temperature‐dependent parameters related to plant respiration and photosynthesis appear to be less important than vegetation dynamics (and their parameters) for determining the magnitude of ecosystem response to climate change. Variance partitioning approaches reveal that relationships between uncertainty from ecosystem dynamics and climate projections are dependent on geographic location and the targeted ecosystem process. Parameter uncertainty from the LPJmL model does not affect the trajectory of ecosystem response for a given climate change scenario and the primary source of uncertainty for Amazon ‘dieback’ results from the uncertainty among climate projections. Our approach for describing uncertainty is applicable for informing and prioritizing policy options related to mitigation and adaptation where long‐term investments are required.