Large‐scale,long‐term trends in British river macroinvertebrates

Rivers are among the world's most modified ecosystems, with poor water quality representing a prominent problem for over 200 years, especially in urban areas. In Western Europe, however, industrial decline, tighter regulation and improved wastewater treatment have combined over recent decades to create conditions conducive to extensive restoration and positive biological change. Here, we evaluate the river macroinvertebrate fauna of England and Wales in relation to water quality, physical habitat and climate over almost two decades. We predicted that biological recovery would be characterized by: (i) greater taxon richness and prevalence of pollution‐sensitive taxa, (ii) larger changes in more heavily urbanized catchments, and (iii) temporal trends in assemblage structure that correlated with improving water quality. Family level richness increased on average by nearly 20% during 1991–2008, accompanied by a widespread shift towards taxa characteristic of well‐oxygenated and less polluted waters. Changes were largest in the most urbanized catchments. A combination of natural gradients and anthropogenic pressures explained the variation among sites, whereas temporal changes correlated with improving water quality and variations in discharge. Positive trends were not universal, however, and there was localized deterioration in some streams draining upland areas and in the lowland south east. Our results are consistent with a large‐scale ecological recovery of English and Welsh rivers since 1990, probably continuing a trend from the mid‐20th century. Based on these results, we suggest: (i) freshwater communities are resilient to long‐term anthropogenic pressures, (ii) biodiversity benefits can arise from investment and long‐term restoration intended largely to enhance ecosystem services such as drinking water and sanitary concerns, and (iii) long‐term monitoring data collected for statutory purposes–based in this case on nearly 50 000 samples–can address scientific questions at spatial and temporal extents seldom achieved in research programmes.     

Short‐term insurance versus long‐term bet‐hedging strategies as adaptations to variable environments

Understanding how organisms adapt to environmental variation is a key challenge of biology. Central to this are bet‐hedging strategies that maximize geometric mean fitness across generations, either by being conservative or diversifying phenotypes. Theoretical models have identified environmental variation across generations with multiplicative fitness effects as driving the evolution of bet‐hedging. However, behavioral ecology has revealed adaptive responses to additive fitness effects of environmental variation within lifetimes, either through insurance or risk‐sensitive strategies. Here, we explore whether the effects of adaptive insurance interact with the evolution of bet‐hedging by varying the position and skew of both arithmetic and geometric mean fitness functions. We find that insurance causes the optimal phenotype to shift from the peak to down the less steeply decreasing side of the fitness function, and that conservative bet‐hedging produces an additional shift on top of this, which decreases as adaptive phenotypic variation from diversifying bet‐hedging increases. When diversifying bet‐hedging is not an option, environmental canalization to reduce phenotypic variation is almost always favored, except where the tails of the fitness function are steeply convex and produce a novel risk‐sensitive increase in phenotypic variance akin to diversifying bet‐hedging. Importantly, using skewed fitness functions, we provide the first model that explicitly addresses how conservative and diversifying bet‐hedging strategies might coexist.     

Large‐scale,long‐term ecosystem monitoring: Interview with David Lindenmayer

David Lindenmayer leads six large‐scale, long‐term research programmes in south‐eastern Australia to help conserve biodiversity in restored areas on farmland as well as conservation in reserves, national parks, wood production forests and plantations. What makes this award‐winning researcher tick and how is the research influencing biodiversity management and policy?     

Restorative mowing on an abandoned semi‐natural meadow: short‐term and predicted long‐term effects

Abstract. When management, in the form of cattle grazing and mowing, ceases the abundance of competitively superior plant species tends to increase in abandoned semi‐natural meadows. Litter accumulation elevates the soil nutrient levels and hinders seedling recruitment. We surveyed changes in plant cover and species composition of a formerly grazed meadow in permanent plots for six years. Some plots were unmown, while others were mown and raked annually in August. The cover of grasses decreased and herb cover remained unchanged regardless of the treatment. Mowing and raking significantly reduced litter accumulation and increased the number of ground layer species. The expected long‐term effects of abandonment and restorative mowing were studied by calculating the transition probabilities for unmown and mown plots and simulating the course of succession as projected by the transition matrices. During a simulation period of 30 yr, abandonment led to (1) a decrease in the cover of small herbs, (2) a slight increase in the cover of tall herbs and (3) a slight decrease in the cover of grasses. In contrast, the cover of small herbs on the mown plots remained unchanged or slightly increased during the course of simulation. These results suggest that mowing late in the season is primarily a management tool for the maintenance of the existing species diversity and composition. However, it may not be an effective restorative tool to induce overall changes in the resident vegetation of abandoned grass‐dominated meadows. Grazing or mowing early in the season may be more effective in this respect. Consequently, mowing early or, alternatively, late in the season may provide management strategies for the maintenance and restoration of species diversity, respectively.     

Low concordance of short‐term and long‐term selection responses in experimental Drosophila populations

Experimental evolution is becoming a popular approach to study the genomic selection response of evolving populations. Computer simulation studies suggest that the accuracy of the signature increases with the duration of the experiment. Since some assumptions of the computer simulations may be violated, it is important to scrutinize the influence of the experimental duration with real data. Here, we use a highly replicated Evolve and Resequence study in Drosophila simulans to compare the selection targets inferred at different time points. At each time point, approximately the same number of SNPs deviates from neutral expectations, but only 10% of the selected haplotype blocks identified from the full data set can be detected after 20 generations. Those haplotype blocks that emerge already after 20 generations differ from the others by being strongly selected at the beginning of the experiment and display a more parallel selection response. Consistent with previous computer simulations, our results demonstrate that only Evolve and Resequence experiments with a sufficient number of generations can characterize complex adaptive architectures.     

Short‐term calorie restriction ameliorates genomewide,age‐related alterations in DNA methylation

DNA methylation plays major roles in many biological processes, including aging, carcinogenesis, and development. Analyses of DNA methylation using next‐generation sequencing offer a new way to profile and compare methylomes across the genome in the context of aging. We explored genomewide DNA methylation and the effects of short‐term calorie restriction (CR) on the methylome of aged rat kidney. Whole‐genome methylation of kidney in young (6 months old), old (25 months old), and OCR (old with 4‐week, short‐term CR) rats was analyzed by methylated DNA immunoprecipitation and next‐generation sequencing (MeDIP‐Seq). CpG islands and repetitive regions were hypomethylated, but 5′‐UTR, exon, and 3′‐UTR hypermethylated in old and OCR rats. The methylation in the promoter and intron regions was decreased in old rats, but increased in OCR rats. Pathway enrichment analysis showed that the hypermethylated promoters in old rats were associated with degenerative phenotypes such as cancer and diabetes. The hypomethylated promoters in old rats related significantly to the chemokine signaling pathway. However, the pathways significantly enriched in old rats were not observed from the differentially methylated promoters in OCR rats. Thus, these findings suggest that short‐term CR could partially ameliorate age‐related methylation changes in promoters in old rats. From the epigenomic data, we propose that the hypermethylation found in the promoter regions of disease‐related genes during aging may indicate increases in susceptibility to age‐related diseases. Therefore, the CR‐induced epigenetic changes that ameliorate age‐dependent aberrant methylation may be important to CR's health‐ and life‐prolonging effects.     

Beavers affect carbon biogeochemistry: both short‐term and long‐term processes are involved

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Do hypotheses from short‐term studies hold in the long‐term? An empirical test

Abstract. 1. A sequence of population estimates for two now-extinct populations of Euphydryas editha bayensis is presented. After removing biased sampling days, estimates of demographic parameters from the long-term data were used to test five hypotheses built from studies of shorter duration. Such tests of short-term conclusions are rare.
2. The long-term demographic parameters include sex ratio, mortality, dispersal, mean flight date, and duration of flight season. The two populations differed with respect to sex ratio and mean flight date, and sexes differed with respect to mortality and dispersal.
3. Three of the five hypotheses were supported directly or indirectly by patterns in the parameters. These hypotheses predict that dynamics are asynchronous over the long term, that larval mortality, not adult abundance and mortality, is the primary determinant of changes in population size, and that topography mediates larval mortality.
4. Two hypotheses were not supported or supported only in part. Flight phenology differed between the study populations as predicted, but flight order was opposite that expected from the topographic composition of each habitat. Variability in sex ratio and the occurrence of female-biased ratios in the habitat of one of the populations also suggest that previous observations of sex ratio are not generalisable.
5. Populations were extremely volatile over the study period. Removal of biased sampling days did not change basic trends or fluctuations in the data. This volatility suggests that E. editha populations residing in similar habitats may risk immediate extinction.     

Long‐term stasis and short‐term divergence in the phenotypes of microsnails on oceanic islands

Phenotypic divergence is often unrelated to genotypic divergence. An extreme example is rapid phenotypic differentiation despite genetic similarity. Another extreme is morphological stasis despite substantial genetic divergence. These opposite patterns have been viewed as reflecting opposite properties of the lineages. In this study, phenotypic radiation accompanied by both rapid divergence and long‐term conservatism is documented in the inferred molecular phylogeny of the micro land snails Cavernacmella (Assimineidae) on the Ogasawara Islands. The populations of Cavernacmella on the Sekimon limestone outcrop of Hahajima Island showed marked divergence in shell morphology. Within this area, one lineage diversified into types with elongated turret shells, conical shells and flat disc‐like shells without substantial genetic differentiation. Additionally, a co‐occurring species with these types developed a much larger shell size. Moreover, a lineage adapted to live inside caves in this area. In contrast, populations in the other areas exhibited no morphological differences despite high genetic divergence among populations. Accordingly, the phenotypic evolution of Cavernacmella in Ogasawara is characterized by a pattern of long‐term stasis and periodic bursts of change. This pattern suggests that even lineages with phenotypic conservatism could shift to an alternative state allowing rapid phenotypic divergence.     

Phenological responses of Icelandic subarctic grasslands to short‐term and long‐term natural soil warming

The phenology of vegetation, particularly the length of the growing season (LOS; i.e., the period from greenup to senescence), is highly sensitive to climate change, which could imply potent feedbacks to the climate system, for example, by altering the ecosystem carbon (C) balance. In recent decades, the largest extensions of LOS have been reported at high northern latitudes, but further warming‐induced LOS extensions may be constrained by too short photoperiod or unfulfilled chilling requirements. Here, we studied subarctic grasslands, which cover a vast area and contain large C stocks, but for which LOS changes under further warming are highly uncertain. We measured LOS extensions of Icelandic subarctic grasslands along natural geothermal soil warming gradients of different age (short term, where the measurements started after 5 years of warming and long term, i.e., warmed since ≥50 years) using ground‐level measurements of normalized difference vegetation index. We found that LOS linearly extended with on average 2.1 days per °C soil warming up to the highest soil warming levels (ca. +10°C) and that LOS had the potential to extend at least 1 month. This indicates that the warming impact on LOS in these subarctic grasslands will likely not saturate in the near future. A similar response to short‐ and long‐term warming indicated a strong physiological control of the phenological response of the subarctic grasslands to warming and suggested that genetic adaptations and community changes were likely of minor importance. We conclude that the warming‐driven extension of the LOSs of these subarctic grasslands did not saturate up to +10°C warming, and hence that growing seasons of high‐latitude grasslands are likely to continue lengthening with future warming (unless genetic adaptations or species shifts do occur). This persistence of the warming‐induced extension of LOS has important implications for the C‐sink potential of subarctic grasslands under climate change.     

Experimental evolution of competing bean beetle species reveals long‐term reversals of short‐term evolution,but no consistent character displacement

Interspecific competition for shared resources should select for evolutionary divergence in resource use between competing species, termed character displacement. Many purported examples of character displacement exist, but few completely rule out alternative explanations. We reared genetically diverse populations of two species of bean beetles, Callosobruchus maculatus and Callosobruchus chinensis, in allopatry and sympatry on a mixture of adzuki beans and lentils, and assayed oviposition preference and other phenotypic traits after four, eight, and twelve generations of (co)evolution. C. maculatus specializes on adzuki beans; the generalist C. chinensis uses both beans. C. chinensis growing in allopatry emerged equally from both bean species. In sympatry, the two species competing strongly and coexisted via strong realized resource partitioning, with C. chinensis emerging almost exclusively from lentils and C. maculatus emerging almost exclusively from adzuki beans. However, oviposition preferences, larval survival traits, and larval development rates in both beetle species did not vary consistently between allopatric versus sympatric treatments. Rather, traits evolved in treatment‐independent fashion, with several traits exhibiting reversals in their evolutionary trajectories. For example, C. chinensis initially evolved a slower egg‐to‐adult development rate on adzuki beans in both allopatry and sympatry, then subsequently evolved back toward the faster ancestral development rate. Lack of character displacement is consistent with a previous similar experiment in bean beetles and may reflect lack of evolutionary trade‐offs in resource use. However, evolutionary reversals were unexpected and remain unexplained. Together with other empirical and theoretical work, our results illustrate the stringency of the conditions for character displacement.     

Soil moisture variations affect short‐term plant‐microbial competition for ammonium,glycine, and glutamate

We tested whether the presence of plant roots would impair the uptake of ammonium (), glycine, and glutamate by microorganisms in a deciduous forest soil exposed to constant or variable moisture in a short‐term (24‐h) experiment. The uptake of ¹⁵NH₄ and dual labeled amino acids by the grass Festuca gigantea L. and soil microorganisms was determined in planted and unplanted soils maintained at 60% WHC (water holding capacity) or subject to drying and rewetting. The experiment used a design by which competition was tested in soils that were primed by plant roots to the same extent in the planted and unplanted treatments. Festuca gigantea had no effect on microbial N uptake in the constant moist soil, but its presence doubled the microbial uptake in the dried and rewetted soil compared with the constant moist. The drying and rewetting reduced by half or more the uptake by F. gigantea, despite more than 60% increase in the soil concentration of . At the same time, the amino acid and ‐ N became equally valued in the plant uptake, suggesting that plants used amino acids to compensate for the lower acquisition. Our results demonstrate the flexibility in plant‐microbial use of different N sources in response to soil moisture fluctuations and emphasize the importance of including transient soil conditions in experiments on resource competition between plants and soil microorganisms. Competition between plants and microorganisms for N is demonstrated by a combination of removal of one of the potential competitors, the plant, and subsequent observations of the uptake of N in the organisms in soils that differ only in the physical presence and absence of the plant during a short assay. Those conditions are necessary to unequivocally test for competition.     

Long‐term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia): survey methods,data management,and long‐term population trends

Long‐term observational studies conducted at large (regional) spatial scales contribute to better understanding of landscape effects on population and evolutionary dynamics, including the conditions that affect long‐term viability of species, but large‐scale studies are expensive and logistically challenging to keep running for a long time. Here, we describe the long‐term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) that has been conducted since 1991 in a large network of 4000 habitat patches (dry meadows) within a study area of 50 by 70 km in the Åland Islands in Finland. We explain how the landscape structure has been described, including definition, delimitation, and mapping of the habitat patches; methods of field survey, including the logistics, cost, and reliability of the survey; and data management using the EarthCape biodiversity platform. We describe the long‐term metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary based on the survey. There has been no long‐term change in the overall size of the metapopulation, but the level of spatial synchrony and hence the amplitude of fluctuations in year‐to‐year metapopulation dynamics have increased over the years, possibly due to increasing frequency of exceptional weather conditions. We discuss the added value of large‐scale and long‐term population studies, but also emphasize the need to integrate more targeted experimental studies in the context of long‐term observational studies. For instance, in the case of the Glanville fritillary project, the long‐term study has produced an opportunity to sample individuals for experiments from local populations with a known demographic history. These studies have demonstrated striking differences in dispersal rate and other life‐history traits of individuals from newly established local populations (the offspring of colonizers) versus individuals from old, established local populations. The long‐term observational study has stimulated the development of metapopulation models and provided an opportunity to test model predictions. This combination of empirical studies and modeling has facilitated the study of key phenomena in spatial dynamics, such as extinction threshold and extinction debt.     

Value of long‐term ecological studies

Long‐term ecological studies are critical for providing key insights in ecology, environmental change, natural resource management and biodiversity conservation. In this paper, we briefly discuss five key values of such studies. These are: (1) quantifying ecological responses to drivers of ecosystem change; (2) understanding complex ecosystem processes that occur over prolonged periods; (3) providing core ecological data that may be used to develop theoretical ecological models and to parameterize and validate simulation models; (4) acting as platforms for collaborative studies, thus promoting multidisciplinary research; and (5) providing data and understanding at scales relevant to management, and hence critically supporting evidence‐based policy, decision making and the management of ecosystems. We suggest that the ecological research community needs to put higher priority on communicating the benefits of long‐term ecological studies to resource managers, policy makers and the general public. Long‐term research will be especially important for tackling large‐scale emerging problems confronting humanity such as resource management for a rapidly increasing human population, mass species extinction, and climate change detection, mitigation and adaptation. While some ecologically relevant, long‐term data sets are now becoming more generally available, these are exceptions. This deficiency occurs because ecological studies can be difficult to maintain for long periods as they exceed the length of government administrations and funding cycles. We argue that the ecological research community will need to coordinate ongoing efforts in an open and collaborative way, to ensure that discoverable long‐term ecological studies do not become a long‐term deficiency. It is important to maintain publishing outlets for empirical field‐based ecology, while simultaneously developing new systems of recognition that reward ecologists for the use and collaborative sharing of their long‐term data sets. Funding schemes must be re‐crafted to emphasize collaborative partnerships between field‐based ecologists, theoreticians and modellers, and to provide financial support that is committed over commensurate time frames.     

Interim analysis incorporating short‐ and long‐term binary endpoints

Designs incorporating more than one endpoint have become popular in drug development. One of such designs allows for incorporation of short‐term information in an interim analysis if the long‐term primary endpoint has not been yet observed for some of the patients. At first we consider a two‐stage design with binary endpoints allowing for futility stopping only based on conditional power under both fixed and observed effects. Design characteristics of three estimators: using primary long‐term endpoint only, short‐term endpoint only, and combining data from both are compared. For each approach, equivalent cut‐off point values for fixed and observed effect conditional power calculations can be derived resulting in the same overall power. While in trials stopping for futility the type I error rate cannot get inflated (it usually decreases), there is loss of power. In this study, we consider different scenarios, including different thresholds for conditional power, different amount of information available at the interim, different correlations and probabilities of success. We further extend the methods to adaptive designs with unblinded sample size reassessments based on conditional power with inverse normal method as the combination function. Two different futility stopping rules are considered: one based on the conditional power, and one from P‐values based on Z‐statistics of the estimators. Average sample size, probability to stop for futility and overall power of the trial are compared and the influence of the choice of weights is investigated.     

Implementing long‐term baselines into primate tool‐use studies

Studies on primate tool‐use often involve the use of baseline conditions, as they allow for the examination of any differences in the subjects' behavior before and after the introduction of a tool‐use task. While these baseline conditions can be powerful for identifying the relative contributions of individual and social learning for the acquisition of tool‐use behaviors in naïve (usually captive) subjects, many have criticized them for being too short, and not allowing enough time for the behavior to develop spontaneously. Furthermore, some wild tool‐use behaviors such as chimpanzee nut‐cracking require animals to manipulate and familiarize themselves with the materials of the behavior within a “sensitive learning period” before it develops later on in life. One solution to this problem is to implement long‐term baselines, in which, with collaboration with zoological institutions, the materials of the behavior are left in the enclosure for an extended period. The keepers would then be asked not to demonstrate or train the animals in the target behavior, but to report back to the researchers if they observe the behavior emerge during this extended period. Alongside keeper reports, video cameras could be installed in the enclosure to minimize the chance of false negatives and to allow for coding and inter‐rater reliability to be carried out on the videos. These long‐term baselines therefore provide extended enrichment opportunities for the animals, alongside allowing the zoological institution to publicize their involvement with the study and guests to observe animals interacting with different testing apparatuses and tools. Finally, long‐term baselines can provide invaluable insight on the individual and social learning abilities of primates as well as the potential development stages and sensitive learning periods required for specific behaviors.