Changes in phenological events in response to a global warming scenario reveal greater adaptability of winter annual compared with summer annual arabidopsis ecotypes

Background and AimsThe impact of global warming on life cycle timing is uncertain. We investigated changes in life cycle timing in a global warming scenario. We compared Arabidopsis thaliana ecotypes adapted to the warm/dry Cape Verdi Islands (Cvi), Macaronesia, and the cool/wet climate of the Burren (Bur), Ireland, Northern Europe. These are obligate winter and summer annuals, respectively.MethodsUsing a global warming scenario predicting a 4 °C temperature rise from 2011 to approx. 2080, we produced F₁ seeds at each end of a thermogradient tunnel. Each F₁ cohort (cool and warm) then produced F₂ seeds at both ends of the thermal gradient in winter and summer annual life cycles. F₂ seeds from the winter life cycle were buried at three positions along the gradient to determine the impact of temperature on seedling emergence in a simulated winter life cycle.Key ResultsIn a winter life cycle, increasing temperatures advanced flowering time by 10.1 d °C^–1 in the winter annual and 4.9 d °C^–1 in the summer annual. Plant size and seed yield responded positively to global warming in both ecotypes. In a winter life cycle, the impact of increasing temperature on seedling emergence timing was positive in the winter annual, but negative in the summer annual. Global warming reduced summer annual plant size and seed yield in a summer life cycle.ConclusionsSeedling emergence timing observed in the north European summer annual ecotype may exacerbate the negative impact of predicted increased spring and summer temperatures on their establishment and reproductive performance. In contrast, seedling establishment of the Macaronesian winter annual may benefit from higher soil temperatures that will delay emergence until autumn, but which also facilitates earlier spring flowering and consequent avoidance of high summer temperatures. Such plasticity gives winter annual arabidopsis ecotypes a distinct advantage over summer annuals in expected global warming scenarios. This highlights the importance of variation in the timing of seedling establishment in understanding plant species responses to anthropogenic climate change.     

Heat tolerance of developmental and seasonal stages of Chilo suppressalis

Global warming means that the ability to withstand heat stress is of crucial importance to insects' survival and reproduction. Insects have various ways of achieving thermal tolerance, which can be affected by thermal history, physiological state, and seasonal cycles. In this study, we compared the thermal tolerance of life stages and seasons of a wild population of the striped stem borer, Chilo suppressalis (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), an economically significant pest of rice crops in Asia. Our results demonstrate that the eggs, larvae, and adults of C. suppressalis collected in rice fields in Yangzhou, China, are able to tolerate extremely high temperatures, in excess of those this species encounters in nature. We found that egg masses had a survival rate of 75% after being kept at 42 °C for 8 h. Egg masses exposed to 39 °C for 8 h had the longest hatching time (3.3 days). LTemp₅₀ and LTemp₉₀ (i.e., the temperatures at which 50 or 90% of individuals died within 2 h) of larvae collected in late summer were 45.4 and 47.3 °C, respectively. LTime₅₀ and LTime₉₀ (i.e., the time required to kill 50 or 90% of individuals) at 44 °C were 6.2 and 9.6 h, respectively. The corresponding values for 46 °C were 1.5 and 2.6 h. We also found that the heat tolerance of adults collected in late summer was lower than that of larvae. For example, LTemp₅₀ of male and female adults was 43.8 and 43.6 °C, respectively. Other measures of the heat tolerance of adults, such as LTime₅₀ at 42 °C, also differed between the sexes, being 5.9 h for males and 7.2 h for females. Although adult survival was robust to heat stress, adult fertility was more sensitive. Our results also indicate that although the second generation of adults (i.e., the summer generation) typically encountered higher temperatures than the overwintering generation, survival of the second generation adults was lower.     

Too hot to handle? Phenological and life‐history responses to simulated climate change of the southern green stink bug Nezara viridula (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae)

The effect of simulated climate change on Nezara viridula was studied close to the species' northern range limit in Japan. Insects from the same egg masses were reared for 15 months in 10 consecutive series under quasi‐natural (i.e. outdoor) conditions and in a transparent incubator, in which climate warming was simulated by adding 2.5 °C to the outdoor temperature. The warming strongly affected all life‐history and phenological parameters. In the spring, the simulated warming advanced the timing of postdiapause body colour changes and reproduction. In the early summer, it increased egg production and accelerated nymphal development. In the late summer (the hottest season), the effect of the simulated warming was strongly deleterious: nymphs developed slowly, suffered higher mortality and had difficulties during final moulting; the emerged females were smaller, some exhibited abnormal cuticle, produced fewer eggs and had a decreased life span. In the autumn, the warming accelerated nymphal development, resulted in larger female size, affected the timing of the diapause‐associated adult body colour change from green to russet and enhanced preparation for overwintering. Larger females had higher winter survival rate than smaller females. The warming strongly increased survival rate in both size classes and allowed smaller females to reach the same winter survival rate as larger females had under the quasi‐natural conditions. The winter survival also differed between the green and dark‐coloured females under the quasi‐natural, but not under the warming conditions. However, under the warming conditions, green females survived the winter even better than dark‐coloured females did under the quasi‐natural conditions. The warming also shortened the life span of females from the summer generations and prolonged it in those from the autumn generation. It is concluded that even a moderate temperature increase (+2.5 °C) in the future is likely to have a complex influence upon insects, strongly affecting many of their life‐history and phenological parameters.     

Increasing ocean temperatures allow tropical fishes to survive overwinter in temperate waters

The southeast coast of Australia is a global hotspot for increasing ocean temperatures due to climate change. The temperate incursion of the East Australian Current (EAC) is increasing, affording increased connectivity with the Great Barrier Reef. The survival of tropically sourced juveniles over the winter is a significant stumbling block to poleward range shifts of marine organisms in this region. Here we examine the dependence of overwintering on winter severity and prewinter recruitment for eight species of juvenile coral reef fishes which are carried into temperate SE Australia (30–37 °S) by the EAC during the austral summer. The probability of persistence was most strongly influenced by average winter temperature and there was no effect of recruitment strength. Long‐term (138 years) data indicate that winter water temperatures throughout this region are increasing at a rate above the global average and predictions indicate a further warming of >2 °C by the end of the century. Rising ocean temperatures are resulting in a higher frequency of winter temperatures above survival thresholds. Current warming trajectories predict 100% of winters will be survivable by at least five of the study species as far south as Sydney (34 °S) by 2080. The implications for range expansions of these and other species of coral reef fish are discussed.     

Adapt,move or die – how will tropical coral reef fishes cope with ocean warming?

Previous studies hailed thermal tolerance and the capacity for organisms to acclimate and adapt as the primary pathways for species survival under climate change. Here we challenge this theory. Over the past decade, more than 365 tropical stenothermal fish species have been documented moving poleward, away from ocean warming hotspots where temperatures 2–3 °C above long‐term annual means can compromise critical physiological processes. We examined the capacity of a model species – a thermally sensitive coral reef fish, Chromis viridis (Pomacentridae) – to use preference behaviour to regulate its body temperature. Movement could potentially circumvent the physiological stress response associated with elevated temperatures and may be a strategy relied upon before genetic adaptation can be effectuated. Individuals were maintained at one of six temperatures (23, 25, 27, 29, 31 and 33 °C) for at least 6 weeks. We compared the relative importance of acclimation temperature to changes in upper critical thermal limits, aerobic metabolic scope and thermal preference. While acclimation temperature positively affected the upper critical thermal limit, neither aerobic metabolic scope nor thermal preference exhibited such plasticity. Importantly, when given the choice to stay in a habitat reflecting their acclimation temperatures or relocate, fish acclimated to end‐of‐century predicted temperatures (i.e. 31 or 33 °C) preferentially sought out cooler temperatures, those equivalent to long‐term summer averages in their natural habitats (~29 °C). This was also the temperature providing the greatest aerobic metabolic scope and body condition across all treatments. Consequently, acclimation can confer plasticity in some performance traits, but may be an unreliable indicator of the ultimate survival and distribution of mobile stenothermal species under global warming. Conversely, thermal preference can arise long before, and remain long after, the harmful effects of elevated ocean temperatures take hold and may be the primary driver of the escalating poleward migration of species.     

Relative importance of temperature and other factors in determining geographic boundaries of seaweeds: Experimental and phenological evidence

Experimentally determined ranges of thermal tolerance and requirements for completion of the life history of some 60 seaweed species from the North Atlantic Ocean were compared with annual temperature regimes at their geographic boundaries. In all but a few species, thermal responses accounted for the location of boundaries. Distribution was restricted by: (a) lethal effects of high or low temperatures preventing survival of the hardiest life history stage (often microthalli), (b) temperature requirements for completion of the life history operating on any one process (i.e. [sexual] reproduction, formation of macrothalli or blades), (c) temperature requirements for the increase of population size (through growth or the formation of asexual propagules). Optimum growth/reproduction temperatures or lethal limits of the non-hardiest stage (often macrothalli) were irrelevant in explaining distribution. In some species, ecotypic differentiation in thermal responses over the distribution range influenced the location of geographic boundaries, but in many other species no such ecotypic differences were evident. Specific daylength requirements affected the location of boundaries only when interacting with temperature. The following types of thermal responses could be recognised, resulting in characteristic distribution patterns: (A) Species endemic to the (warm) temperate eastern Atlantic had narrow survival ranges (between ca 5 and ca 25°C) preventing occurrence in NE America. In species with isomorphic life histories without very specific temperature requirements for reproduction, northern and southern boundaries in Eur/Africa are set by lethal limits. Species with heteromorphic life histories often required high and/or low temperatures to induce reproduction in one or both life history phases which further restricted distribution. (B) Species endemic to the tropical western Atlantic also had narrow survival ranges (between ca 10 and ca 35°C). Northern boundaries are set by low, lethal winter temperatures. Thermal properties would potentially allow occurrence in the (sub) tropical eastern Atlantic, but the ocean must have formed a barrier to dispersal. No experimental evidence is so far available for tropical species with an amphi-Atlantic distribution. (C) Tropical to temperate species endemic to the western Atlantic had broad survival ranges (<0 to ca 35°C). Northern boundaries are set by low summer temperatures preventing (growth and) reproduction. Thermal properties would permit occurrence in the (sub)tropical eastern Atlantic, but along potential “stepping stones” for dispersal in the northern Atlantic (Greenland, Iceland, NW Europe) summer temperatures would be too low for growth. (D) In most amphi-Atlantic (tropical-) temperate species, northern boundaries are set by low summer temperatures preventing reproduction or the increase of population size. On European shores, species generally extended into regions with slightly lower summer temperatures than in America, probably because milder winters allow survival of a larger part of the population. (E) Amphi-Atlantic (Arctic-) temperate species survived at subzero temperatures. In species with isomorphic life histories not specifically requiring low temperatures for reproduction, southern boundaries are set by lethally high summer temperatures on both sides of the Atlantic. None of the species survived temperatures over 30°C which prevents tropical occurrence. Species with these thermal responses are characterized by distribution patterns in which southern boundaries in Eur/Africa lie further south than those in eastern N America because of cooler summers. In most species with heteromorphic life histories (or crustose and erect growth forms), low temperatures were required for formation of the macrothalli (either directly or through the induction of sexual reproduction). These species have composite southern boundaries in the north Atlantic Ocean. On American coasts, boundaries are set by lethally high summer temperatures, on European coasts by winter temperatures too high for the induction of macrothalli. Species with this type of thermal responses are characterized by distribution patterns in which the boundaries in Eur/Africa lie further north than those in eastern N America because of warmer winters. Paper presented at the XIV International Botanical Congress (Berlin, 24 July–1 August, 1987), Symposium 6-15, “Biogeography of marine benthic algae”.     

Winter survival of Ceramica pisi (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Iceland

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Warming and hypoxia reduce the performance and survival of northern bay scallops (Argopecten irradians irradians) amid a fishery collapse

Warming temperatures and diminishing dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations are among the most pervasive drivers of global coastal change. While regions of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean are experiencing greater than average warming, the combined effects of thermal and hypoxic stress on marine life in this region are poorly understood. Populations of the northern bay scallop, Argopecten irradians irradians across the northeast United States have experienced severe declines in recent decades. This study used a combination of high-resolution (~1 km) satellite-based temperature records, long-term temperature and DO records, field and laboratory experiments, and high-frequency measures of scallop cardiac activity in an ecosystem setting to quantify decadal summer warming and assess the vulnerability of northern bay scallops to thermal and hypoxic stress across their geographic distribution. From 2003 to 2020, significant summer warming (up to ~0.2°C year⁻¹) occurred across most of the bay scallop range. At a New York field site in 2020, all individuals perished during an 8-day estuarine heatwave that coincided with severe diel-cycling hypoxia. Yet at a Massachusetts site with comparable DO levels but lower daily mean temperatures, mortality was not observed. A 96-h laboratory experiment recreating observed daily temperatures of 25 or 29°C, and normoxia or hypoxia (22.2% air saturation), revealed a 120-fold increased likelihood of mortality in the 29°C-hypoxic treatment compared with control conditions, with scallop clearance rates also reduced by 97%. Cardiac activity measurements during a field deployment indicated that low DO and elevated daily temperatures modulate oxygen consumption rates and likely impact aerobic scope. Collectively, these findings suggest that concomitant thermal and hypoxic stress can have detrimental effects on scallop physiology and survival and potentially disrupt entire fisheries. Recovery of hypoxic systems may benefit vulnerable fisheries under continued warming.     

Temperature-induced changes in the life cycle of Leuctra nigra(Plecoptera: Leuctridae) from a Lake District stream

1. The life cycle of Leuctra nigra (Olivier) took 2 years in a small stream in the English Lake District and the exponential growth of the larvae was scarcely affected by variations in water temperature (range 4.2-14.0°C). Mean growth rates for three year-classes were 0.43±0.01, 0.42±0.01, 0.39±0.05% body length day^?1. There were thirteen or fourteen larval instars for males and fourteen or fifteen for females. The ratio between successive instars was a constant 1.20 (conformed with Dyar's rule). 2. Larval growth and mortality were exponential at six constant temperatures (5.9, 8.2, 12.1, 15.8, 18.2, 19.8°C) in the laboratory. Mean growth rates (% body length day^?1) increased directly with temperature from 0.37 (5.9°C) to 0.55 (19.8°C). Mean mortality rates (% day^?1) increased directly with temperature from 0.20 (5.9°C) to 0.26 (12.1°C) and then markedly increased to 0.54-0.58 at the three higher temperatures. Only 7-10% of animals completed their life cycle at the three higher temperatures compared with 23–27% at the three lower temperatures. Egg production also decreased considerably at the higher temperatures. 3. As growth rates in the stream and laboratory were similar at similar temperatures (<14°C), the optimum conditions for growth in the laboratory were probably similar to those in the stream; therefore resources such as food and space were not restricting growth in the stream. 4. The implications of the temperature-induced changes in growth and mortality are discussed and it is concluded that although the life cycle can change from semivoltine to univoltine with increasing temperature, the costs of a univoltine life cycle are high in terms of survival and egg production, both of which decreased markedly between 12.1 and 15.8°C. Therefore the optimum habitat for this species appears to be a summer cool stream (maximum temperature <14°C) and the optimal life cycle appears to be about 2 years from egg to adult.     

Egg development and hatching success in alpine chironomids

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Stage- and sex-specific heat tolerance in the yellow dung fly Scathophaga stercoraria

Thermal tolerance varies at all hierarchical levels of biological organization: among species, populations, individuals, and even within individuals. Age- or developmental stage- and sex-specific thermal effects have received relatively little attention in the literature, despite being crucial for understanding thermal adaptation in nature and responses to global warming. We document stage- and sex- specific heat tolerance in the yellow dung fly Scathophaga stercoraria (Diptera: Scathophagidae), a species common throughout the northern hemisphere that generally favours cool climates. Exposure of eggs to temperatures up to 32 °C did not affect larval hatching rate, but subsequent egg-to-adult survival at a benign temperature was reduced. Permanent transfer from benign (18 °C) to hot temperatures (up to 31 °C) at different larval and pupal stages strongly decreased egg-to-adult survival, though survival continuously improved the later the transfer occurred. Temporary transfer for only two days increased mortality more weakly, survival being lowest when temperature stress was imposed early during the larval or pupal stages. Adult flies provided with sugar and water tolerated 31 °C longer than previously thought (5 days in males to 9 days in females). Eggs were thus less susceptible to thermal stress than larvae, pupae or adults, in agreement with the hypothesis that more mobile stages require less physiological protection against heat because they can behaviourally thermoregulate. The probability of mating, of laying a clutch, and hatching success were generally independently reduced by exposure of females or males to warm temperatures (24 °C) during the juvenile or adult stages, with some interactions evident. High temperature stress thus affects survival differentially depending on when it occurs during the juvenile or the pre-reproductive adult life stage, and affects reproductive success via the mating behaviour of both sexes, female physiology in terms of oviposition, and fertility via sperm and/or egg quality. Our results illustrate that temperature stress, even when moderate and temporary, during early development can have profound lethal and non-lethal fitness-consequences later in life.     

Forests and the temperature of upland streams in Wales: a modelling exploration of the biological effects

SUMMARY. 1. Daily temperature data from six streams in upland Wales were used to explore the thermal effects of afforestation on stream ecology. The data were linked to published biological models to simulate fish and invertebrate development.
2. Mean daily temperatures in forest streams were lower than those of moorland streams in spring and summer, and higher in winter. These spatial comparisons were supported by the results of experimental bank-side clearance at a forest site, where there was evidence that stream temperatures fell in winter and rose in spring following treatment.
3. Simulations indicated that brown trout (Salmo trutta) could weigh over 30% more by the end of their second growing season in a moorland compared with a forest stream. Several species of insects showed slower simulated egg development at forest sites. For two ephemeropteran species simulated nymphal growth was also retarded, suggesting significant alterations to the life cycle. Two plecopteran species were affected only slightly by the different temperature regimes.
4. Overall, the simulations suggested that afforestation, by reducing summer temperatures, could lead to marked reductions in rates of development of some invertebrates and fish.     

Predicted global warming scenarios impact on the mother plant to alter seed dormancy and germination behaviour in Arabidopsis

Abstract Seed characteristics are key components of plant fitness that are influenced by temperature in their maternal environment, and temperature will change with global warming. To study the effect of such temperature changes, Arabidopsis thaliana plants were grown to produce seeds along a uniquely designed polyethylene tunnel having a thermal gradient reflecting local global warming predictions. Plants therefore experienced the same variations in temperature and light conditions but different mean temperatures. A range of seed‐related plant fitness estimates were measured. There were dramatic non‐linear temperature effects on the germination behaviour in two contrasting ecotypes. Maternal temperatures lower than 15–16 °C resulted in significantly greater primary dormancy. In addition, the impact of nitrate in the growing media on dormancy was shown only by seeds produced below 15–16 °C. However, there were no consistent effects on seed yield, number, or size. Effects on germination behaviour were shown to be a species characteristic responding to temperature and not time of year. Elevating temperature above this critical value during seed development has the potential to dramatically alter the timing of subsequent seed germination and the proportion entering the soil seed bank. This has potential consequences for the whole plant life cycle and species fitness.     

Photosynthesis of temperate Eucalyptus globulus trees outside their native range has limited adjustment to elevated CO2 and climate warming

Eucalyptus species are grown widely outside of their native ranges in plantations on all vegetated continents of the world. We predicted that such a plantation species would show high potential for acclimation of photosynthetic traits across a wide range of growth conditions, including elevated [CO₂] and climate warming. To test this prediction, we planted temperate Eucalyptus globulus Labill. seedlings in climate‐controlled chambers in the field located >700 km closer to the equator than the nearest natural occurrence of this species. Trees were grown in a complete factorial combination of elevated CO₂ concentration (eC; ambient [CO₂] +240 ppm) and air warming treatments (eT; ambient +3 °C) for 15 months until they reached ca. 10 m height. There was little acclimation of photosynthetic capacity to eC and hence the CO₂‐induced photosynthetic enhancement was large (ca. 50%) in this treatment during summer. The warming treatment significantly increased rates of both carboxylation capacity (V_cmax) and electron transport (J_max) (measured at a common temperature of 25 °C) during winter, but decreased them significantly by 20–30% in summer. The photosynthetic CO₂ compensation point in the absence of dark respiration (Γ*) was relatively less sensitive to temperature in this temperate eucalypt species than for warm‐season tobacco. The temperature optima for photosynthesis and J_max significantly changed by about 6 °C between winter and summer, but without further adjustment from early to late summer. These results suggest that there is an upper limit for the photosynthetic capacity of E. globulus ssp. globulus outside its native range to acclimate to growth temperatures above 25 °C. Limitations to temperature acclimation of photosynthesis in summer may be one factor that defines climate zones where E. globulus plantation productivity can be sustained under anticipated global environmental change.     

Adaptations to the Arctic: low-temperature development and cold tolerance in the free-living stages of a parasitic nematode from Svalbard

For nematodes with a direct life cycle, transmission is highly dependent on temperature-related development and survival of the free-living stages. Therefore, in the Arctic, where the winter lasts from October to May, nematode transmission is expected to be focused in the short summer season, yet there is strong evidence that as well as focussing egg output during winter months, the nematode parasite, Marshallagia marshalli, infects Svalbard reindeer during the Arctic winter when temperatures are persistently below freezing. To investigate the potential for development and survival of eggs and infective third-stage larvae in winter and therefore the possibility of for winter transmission, we ran a series of low-temperature laboratory experiments. These provide five key insights into the transmission and survival of the free-living stages of M. marshalli: (1) eggs hatched at temperatures as low as 2 °C, but not below 0 °C, (2) eggs were viable and developed after being exposed to sub-zero temperatures for up to 28 months, (3) infective-stage larvae survived for up to 80 days at 5 °C, (4) infective-stage larvae could survive rapid exposure to temperatures below ?30 °C, and (5) desiccation resistance may be important for long-term larval survival at low temperatures. Together, these results indicate that eggs deposited during the winter are highly tolerant of prevailing environmental conditions and have the potential for rapid development with the onset of spring. It is therefore likely that the parasite remains in the egg stage in the faeces during the winter of deposition, hatch and develop into the infective larval stage in the summer, remaining viable on the tundra until the reindeer host returns to the winter feeding grounds the following winter.     

Life on the edge: thermal optima for aerobic scope of equatorial reef fishes are close to current day temperatures

Equatorial populations of marine species are predicted to be most impacted by global warming because they could be adapted to a narrow range of temperatures in their local environment. We investigated the thermal range at which aerobic metabolic performance is optimum in equatorial populations of coral reef fish in northern Papua New Guinea. Four species of damselfishes and two species of cardinal fishes were held for 14 days at 29, 31, 33, and 34 °C, which incorporated their existing thermal range (29–31 °C) as well as projected increases in ocean surface temperatures of up to 3 °C by the end of this century. Resting and maximum oxygen consumption rates were measured for each species at each temperature and used to calculate the thermal reaction norm of aerobic scope. Our results indicate that one of the six species, Chromis atripectoralis, is already living above its thermal optimum of 29 °C. The other five species appeared to be living close to their thermal optima (ca. 31 °C). Aerobic scope was significantly reduced in all species, and approached zero for two species at 3 °C above current‐day temperatures. One species was unable to survive even short‐term exposure to 34 °C. Our results indicate that low‐latitude reef fish populations are living close to their thermal optima and may be more sensitive to ocean warming than higher‐latitude populations. Even relatively small temperature increases (2–3 °C) could result in population declines and potentially redistribution of equatorial species to higher latitudes if adaptation cannot keep pace.     

Thermal habitat of adult Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in a warming ocean

The year-round thermal habitat at sea for adult Atlantic salmon Salmo salar (n = 49) from northern Norway was investigated using archival tags over a 10 year study period. During their ocean feeding migration, the fish spent 90% of the time in waters with temperatures from 1.6–8.4°C. Daily mean temperatures ranged from −0.5 to 12.9°C, with daily temperature variation up to 9.6°C. Fish experienced the coldest water during winter (November–March) and the greatest thermal range during the first summer at sea (July–August). Trends in sea-surface temperatures influenced the thermal habitat of salmon during late summer and autumn (August–October), with fish experiencing warmer temperatures in warmer years. This pattern was absent during winter (November–March), when daily mean temperatures ranged from 3.4–5.0°C, in both colder and warmer years. The observations of a constant thermal habitat during winter in both warmer and colder years, may suggest that the ocean distribution of salmon is flexible and that individual migration routes could shift as a response to spatiotemporal alterations of favourable prey fields and ocean temperatures.     

Some like it cold: Temperature‐dependent habitat selection by narwhals

The narwhal (Monodon monoceros) is a high‐Arctic species inhabiting areas that are experiencing increases in sea temperatures, which together with reduction in sea ice are expected to modify the niches of several Arctic marine apex predators. The Scoresby Sound fjord complex in East Greenland is the summer residence for an isolated population of narwhals. The movements of 12 whales instrumented with Fastloc‐GPS transmitters were studied during summer in Scoresby Sound and at their offshore winter ground in 2017–2019. An additional four narwhals provided detailed hydrographic profiles on both summer and winter grounds. Data on diving of the whales were obtained from 20 satellite‐linked time‐depth recorders and 16 Acousonde? recorders that also provided information on the temperature and depth of buzzes. In summer, the foraging whales targeted depths between 300 and 850 m where the preferred areas visited by the whales had temperatures ranging between 0.6 and 1.5°C (mean = 1.1°C, SD = 0.22). The highest probability of buzzing activity during summer was at a temperature of 0.7°C and at depths > 300 m. The whales targeted similar depths at their offshore winter ground where the temperature was slightly higher (range: 0.7–1.7°C, mean = 1.3°C, SD = 0.29). Both the probability of buzzing events and the spatial distribution of the whales in both seasons demonstrated a preferential selection of cold water. This was particularly pronounced in winter where cold coastal water was selected and warm Atlantic water farther offshore was avoided. It is unknown if the small temperature niche of whales while feeding is because prey is concentrated at these temperature gradients and is easier to capture at low temperatures, or because there are limitations in the thermoregulation of the whales. In any case, the small niche requirements together with their strong site fidelity emphasize the sensitivity of narwhals to changes in the thermal characteristics of their habitats.     

Communal nesting under climate change: fitness consequences of higher incubation temperatures for a nocturnal lizard

Communal nesting lizards may be vulnerable to climate warming, particularly if air temperatures regulate nest temperatures. In southeastern Australia, velvet geckos Oedura lesueurii lay eggs communally inside rock crevices. We investigated whether increases in air temperatures could elevate nest temperatures, and if so, how this could influence hatching phenotypes, survival, and population dynamics. In natural nests, maximum daily air temperature influenced mean and maximum daily nest temperatures, implying that nest temperatures will increase under climate warming. To determine whether hotter nests influence hatchling phenotypes, we incubated eggs under two fluctuating temperature regimes to mimic current ‘cold’ nests (mean = 23.2 °C, range 10–33 °C) and future ‘hot’ nests (27.0 °C, 14–37 °C). ‘Hot’ incubation temperatures produced smaller hatchlings than did cold temperature incubation. We released individually marked hatchlings into the wild in 2014 and 2015, and monitored their survival over 10 months. In 2014 and 2015, hot‐incubated hatchlings had higher annual mortality (99%, 97%) than cold‐incubated (11%, 58%) or wild‐born hatchlings (78%, 22%). To determine future trajectories of velvet gecko populations under climate warming, we ran population viability analyses in Vortex and varied annual rates of hatchling mortality within the range 78– 96%. Hatchling mortality strongly influenced the probability of extinction and the mean time to extinction. When hatchling mortality was >86%, populations had a higher probability of extinction (PE: range 0.52– 1.0) with mean times to extinction of 18–44 years. Whether future changes in hatchling survival translate into reduced population viability will depend on the ability of females to modify their nest‐site choices. Over the period 1992–2015, females used the same communal nests annually, suggesting that there may be little plasticity in maternal nest‐site selection. The impacts of climate change may therefore be especially severe on communal nesting species, particularly if such species occupy thermally challenging environments.     

Seed‐based approach for identifying flora at risk from climate warming

In obligate seeding species, the germination niche is crucial for colonization and population survival. It is a high‐risk phase in a plant's life cycle, and is directly regulated by temperature. Seeds germinate over a range of temperatures within which there is an optimum temperature, with thresholds above and below which no germination occurs. We suggest that abrupt changes in temperature associated with a warming climate may cause a disconnect between temperatures seeds experience and temperatures over which germination is able to occur, rendering obligate seeding species vulnerable to decline and extinction. Using a bidirectional temperature gradient system, we examined the thermal constraints in the germination niche of some geographically restricted species from the low altitude mountains of the Stirling Range, southern Western Australia, including seedlots from lowland populations of four of these species. We demonstrated that high temperatures are not a limiting factor for germination in some restricted species, signifying a lack of relationship between geographic range size and breadth of the germination niche. In contrast, we identified other restricted species, in particular Sphenotoma drummondii, as being at risk of recruitment failure as a consequence of warming: seeds of this species showed a strong negative relationship between percentage germination and increasing temperature above a relatively low optimum constant temperature (13°C). We found some ecotypic differences in the temperature profiles between seeds collected from montane or lowland populations of Andersonia echinocephala, and while specific populations may become more restricted, they are perhaps at less risk of extinction from climate warming. This seed‐based approach for identifying extinction risk will contribute tangibly to efforts to predict plant responses to environmental change and will assist in prioritizing species for management actions, directing limited resources towards further investigations and can supplement bioclimatic modelling.