Delayed phenological timing of dragonfly emergence in Japan over five decades

Recent increases in air temperature have affected species phenology, resulting in the earlier onset of spring life-cycle events. Trends in the first appearance of adult dragonflies across Japan were analysed using a dataset consisting of observations from 1953 to 2005. Dynamic factor analysis was used to evaluate underlying common trends in a set of 48 time series. The appearance of the first adult dragonfly has significantly shifted to later in the spring in the past five decades. Generalized linear mixing models suggested that this is probably the result of increased air temperatures. Increased summer and autumn temperatures may provide longer bivoltine periods and a faster growth rate; thus, the second generation, which previously hatched in summer, can emerge in the autumn causing the size of the population of dragonflies that emerge in spring to decrease. It is also possible that reduced dragonfly populations along with human development are responsible for a delay in the first observed dragonflies in the spring. However, human population density did not appear to strongly affect the appearance date. This study provides the first evidence of a delay in insect phenological events over recent decades.     

Non-climatic thermal adaptation: implications for species' responses to climate warming

There is considerable interest in understanding how ectothermic animals may physiologically and behaviourally buffer the effects of climate warming. Much less consideration is being given to how organisms might adapt to non-climatic heat sources in ways that could confound predictions for responses of species and communities to climate warming. Although adaptation to non-climatic heat sources (solar and geothermal) seems likely in some marine species, climate warming predictions for marine ectotherms are largely based on adaptation to climatically relevant heat sources (air or surface sea water temperature). Here, we show that non-climatic solar heating underlies thermal resistance adaptation in a rocky–eulittoral-fringe snail. Comparisons of the maximum temperatures of the air, the snail''s body and the rock substratum with solar irradiance and physiological performance show that the highest body temperature is primarily controlled by solar heating and re-radiation, and that the snail''s upper lethal temperature exceeds the highest climatically relevant regional air temperature by approximately 22°C. Non-climatic thermal adaptation probably features widely among marine and terrestrial ectotherms and because it could enable species to tolerate climatic rises in air temperature, it deserves more consideration in general and for inclusion into climate warming models.     

Amazon Basin climate under global warming: the role of the sea surface temperature

The Hadley Centre coupled climate-carbon cycle model (HadCM3LC) predicts loss of the Amazon rainforest in response to future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the atmospheric component of HadCM3LC is used to assess the role of simulated changes in mid-twenty-first century sea surface temperature (SST) in Amazon Basin climate change. When the full HadCM3LC SST anomalies (SSTAs) are used, the atmosphere model reproduces the Amazon Basin climate change exhibited by HadCM3LC, including much of the reduction in Amazon Basin rainfall. This rainfall change is shown to be the combined effect of SSTAs in both the tropical Atlantic and the Pacific, with roughly equal contributions from each basin. The greatest rainfall reduction occurs from May to October, outside of the mature South American monsoon (SAM) season. This dry season response is the combined effect of a more rapid warming of the tropical North Atlantic relative to the south, and warm SSTAs in the tropical east Pacific. Conversely, a weak enhancement of mature SAM season rainfall in response to Atlantic SST change is suppressed by the atmospheric response to Pacific SST. This net wet season response is sufficient to prevent dry season soil moisture deficits from being recharged through the SAM season, leading to a perennial soil moisture reduction and an associated 30% reduction in annual Amazon Basin net primary productivity (NPP). A further 23% NPP reduction occurs in response to a 3.5 degrees C warmer air temperature associated with a global mean SST warming.     

Climate change reduces reproductive success of an Arctic herbivore through trophic mismatch

In highly seasonal environments, offspring production by vertebrates is timed to coincide with the annual peak of resource availability. For herbivores, this resource peak is represented by the annual onset and progression of the plant growth season. As plant phenology advances in response to climatic warming, there is potential for development of a mismatch between the peak of resource demands by reproducing herbivores and the peak of resource availability. For migratory herbivores, such as caribou, development of a trophic mismatch is particularly likely because the timing of their seasonal migration to summer ranges, where calves are born, is cued by changes in day length, while onset of the plant-growing season on the same ranges is cued by local temperatures. Using data collected since 1993 on timing of calving by caribou and timing of plant growth in West Greenland, we document the consequences for reproductive success of a developing trophic mismatch between caribou and their forage plants. As mean spring temperatures at our study site have risen by more than 4 degrees C, caribou have not kept pace with advancement of the plant-growing season on their calving range. As a consequence, offspring mortality has risen and offspring production has dropped fourfold.     

Will climate change be beneficial or detrimental to the invasive swede midge in North America? Contrasting predictions using climate projections from different general circulation models

Climate change may dramatically affect the distribution and abundance of organisms. With the world's population size expected to increase significantly during the next 100 years, we need to know how climate change might impact our food production systems. In particular, we need estimates of how future climate might alter the distribution of agricultural pests. We used the climate projections from two general circulation models (GCMs) of global climate, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis GCM (CGCM2) and the Hadley Centre model (HadCM3), for the A2 and B2 scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios in conjunction with a previously published bioclimatic envelope model (BEM) to predict the potential changes in distribution and abundance of the swede midge, Contarinia nasturtii, in North America. The BEM in conjunction with either GCM predicted that C. nasturtii would spread from its current initial invasion in southern Ontario and northwestern New York State into the Canadian prairies, northern Canada, and midwestern United States, but the magnitude of risk depended strongly on the GCM and the scenario used. When the CGCM2 projections were used, the BEM predicted an extensive shift in the location of the midges' climatic envelope through most of Ontario, Quebec, and the maritime and prairie provinces by the 2080s. In the United States, C. nasturtii was predicted to spread to all the Great Lake states, into midwestern states as far south as Colorado, and west into Washington State. When the HadCM3 was applied, southern Ontario, Saskatchewan, and Washington State were not as favourable for C. nasturtii by the 2080s. Indeed, when used with the HadCM3 climate projections, the BEM predicted the virtual disappearance of ‘very favourable’ regions for C. nasturtii. The CGCM2 projections generally caused the BEM to predict a small increase in the mean number of midge generations throughout the course of the century, whereas, the HadCM3 projections resulted in roughly the same mean number of generations but decreased variance. Predictions of the likely potential of C. nasturtii spatial spread are thus strongly dependent on the source of climate projections. This study illustrates the importance of using multiple GCMs in combination with multiple scenarios when studying the potential for spatial spread of an organism in response to climate change.     

Effects of warming and nutrients on sediment community respiration in shallow lakes: an outdoor mesocosm experiment

1. Climate warming is expected to change respiration in shallow lakes but to an extent that depends on nutrient state. 2. We measured sediment respiration (SR) over the season in the dark on intact sediment cores taken from a series of flow‐through, heated and unheated, nutrient‐enriched and unenriched mesocosms. The natural seasonal temperature cycle ranged from 2 to 20 °C in the unheated mesocosms. In the heated mesocosms, the temperature was raised 4–6 °C above ambient temperatures, depending on season, following the A2 climate change scenario downscaled to the local position of the mesocosms, but enlarged by 50%. We further measured ecosystem respiration (ER) in the mesocosms based on semi‐continuous oxygen measurements. 3. SR changed over the season and was approximately ten times higher in summer than in winter. SR showed no clear response to warming in the nutrient‐enriched treatment, while it increased with warming in the unenriched mesocosms which also had lower fish densities. 4. ER was not affected by artificial warming or nutrient enrichment, but it was ten times higher in summer than in winter. 5. SR contributed 24–32% to ER. The SR:ER ratio was generally stimulated by warming and was higher in winter than in summer, especially in the nutrient‐enriched mesocosms. 6. Our results indicate that climate warming may lead to higher SR, especially in clear, macrophyte‐dominated systems. Moreover, the contribution of SR to ER will increase with higher temperatures, but decrease as the winters get shorter.     

Between-year variation in climate-related growth of circumarctic populations of the moss Hylocomium splendens

1. The correlation between climatic variables and past (up to 20 years) growth was studied in seven circumarctic populations of the moss Hylocomium splendens, using retrospective analyses of growth. We hypothesized that relationships between growth and climate would be simpler in an ectohydric moss than in higher plants and that the moss could provide high signal-to-noise ratios of responses to climatic variation.
2. Growth parameters of the moss were strongly correlated with early summer temperatures and with the length of the growing season. Annual segment mass, growth rates and degeneration rates were highest at the mildest subarctic sites and lowest at the high arctic site. In contrast, 'longevity' (age of the oldest segment) increased at the climatically harsher sites.
3. Between-year growth variations at two contrasting sites were significantly correlated with June and July temperatures and, to a lesser extent, with early-season precipitation at one of the sites.
4. The moss currently tolerates a wide range of climates and large interannual variations in temperature and is likely to be at risk from climatic change only at the southern edge of its range.
5. The climate-change component most likely to affect the growth of H. splendens in the Arctic and Subarctic will be a lengthening of the growing season and in increase in early summer temperatures provided that moisture is not limiting.
6. Hylocomium splendens is a suitable species for monitoring climatic change at a circumarctic scale.     

The effects of phenological mismatches on demography

Climate change is altering the phenology of species across the world, but what are the consequences of these phenological changes for the demography and population dynamics of species? Time-sensitive relationships, such as migration, breeding and predation, may be disrupted or altered, which may in turn alter the rates of reproduction and survival, leading some populations to decline and others to increase in abundance. However, finding evidence for disrupted relationships, or lack thereof, and their demographic effects, is difficult because the necessary detailed observational data are rare. Moreover, we do not know how sensitive species will generally be to phenological mismatches when they occur. Existing long-term studies provide preliminary data for analysing the phenology and demography of species in several locations. In many instances, though, observational protocols may need to be optimized to characterize timing-based multi-trophic interactions. As a basis for future research, we outline some of the key questions and approaches to improving our understanding of the relationships among phenology, demography and climate in a multi-trophic context. There are many challenges associated with this line of research, not the least of which is the need for detailed, long-term data on many organisms in a single system. However, we identify key questions that can be addressed with data that already exist and propose approaches that could guide future research.     

Is the Sonoran Desert losing its cool?

Freezing temperatures strongly influence vegetation in the hottest desert of North America, in part determining both its overall boundary and distributions of plant species within. To evaluate recent variability of freezing temperatures in this context, minimum temperature data from weather stations in the Sonoran Desert are examined. Data show widespread warming trends in winter and spring, decreased frequency of freezing temperatures, lengthening of the freeze‐free season, and increased minimum temperatures per winter year. Local land use and multidecadal modes of the global climate system such as the Pacific decadal oscillation and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation do not appear to be principal drivers of this warming. Minimum temperature variability in the Sonoran Desert does, however, correspond to global temperature variability attributed to human‐dominated global warming. With warming expected to continue at faster rates throughout the 21st century, potential ecological responses may include contraction of the overall boundary of the Sonoran Desert in the south‐east and expansion northward, eastward, and upward in elevation, as well as changes to distributions of plant species within and other characteristics of Sonoran Desert ecosystems. Potential trajectories of vegetation change in the Sonoran Desert region may be affected or made more difficult to predict by uncertain changes in warm season precipitation variability and fire. Opportunities now exist to investigate ecosystem response to regional climate disturbance, as well as to anticipate and plan for continued warming in the Sonoran Desert region.     

Short- and long-term greenhouse gas and radiative forcing impacts of changing water management in Asian rice paddies

Fertilized rice paddy soils emit methane while flooded, emit nitrous oxide during flooding and draining transitions, and can be a source or sink of carbon dioxide. Changing water management of rice paddies can affect net emissions of all three of these greenhouse gases. We used denitrification–decomposition (DNDC), a process‐based biogeochemistry model, to evaluate the annual emissions of CH₄, N₂O, and CO₂ for continuously flooded, single‐, double‐, and triple‐cropped rice (three baseline scenarios), and in further simulations, the change in emissions with changing water management to midseason draining of the paddies, and to alternating crops of midseason drained rice and upland crops (two alternatives for each baseline scenario). We used a set of first‐order atmospheric models to track the atmospheric burden of each gas over 500 years. We evaluated the dynamics of the radiative forcing due to the changes in emissions of CH₄, N₂O, and CO₂ (alternative minus baseline), and compared these with standard calculations of CO₂‐equivalent emissions using global warming potentials (GWPs). All alternative scenarios had lower CH₄ emissions and higher N₂O emissions than their corresponding baseline cases, and all but one sequestered carbon in the soil more slowly. Because of differences in emissions, in radiative forcing per molecule, and in atmospheric time constants (lifetimes), the relative radiative impacts of CH₄, N₂O, and CO₂ varied over the 500‐year simulations. In three of the six cases, the initial change in radiative forcing was dominated by reduced CH₄ emissions (i.e. a cooling for the first few decades); in five of the six cases, the long‐term radiative forcing was dominated by increased N₂O emissions (i.e. a warming over several centuries). The overall complexity of the radiative forcing response to changing water management could not easily be captured with conventional GWP calculations.     

Climate impacts at multiple scales: evidence for differential population responses in juvenile Chinook salmon

1. We explored differential population responses to climate in 18 populations of threatened spring-summer Chinook salmon Onchorynchus tshawytscha in the Salmon River basin, Idaho. 2. Using data from a long-term mark-release-recapture study of juvenile survival, we found that fall stream flow is the best predictor of average survival across all populations. 3. To determine whether all populations responded similarly to climate, we used a cluster analysis to group populations that had similar annual fluctuations in survival. The populations grouped into four clusters, and different environmental factors were important for different clusters. 4. Survival in two of the clusters was negatively correlated with summer temperature, and survival in the other two clusters was positively correlated with minimum fall stream flow, which in turn depends on snow pack from the previous winter. 5. Using classification and regression tree analysis, we identified stream width and stream temperature as key habitat factors that shape the responses of individual populations to climate. 6. Climate change will likely have different impacts on different populations within this metapopulation, and recognizing this diversity is important for accurately assessing risks.