Individual risk perception and empirical social structures shape the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks

The dynamics of a spreading disease and individual behavioral changes are entangled processes that have to be addressed together in order to effectively manage an outbreak. Here, we relate individual risk perception to the adoption of a specific set of control measures, as obtained from an extensive large-scale survey performed via Facebook—involving more than 500,000 respondents from 64 countries—showing that there is a “one-to-one” relationship between perceived epidemic risk and compliance with a set of mitigation rules. We then develop a mathematical model for the spreading of a disease—sharing epidemiological features with COVID-19—that explicitly takes into account non-compliant individual behaviors and evaluates the impact of a population fraction of infectious risk-deniers on the epidemic dynamics. Our modeling study grounds on a wide set of structures, including both synthetic and more than 180 real-world contact patterns, to evaluate, in realistic scenarios, how network features typical of human interaction patterns impact the spread of a disease. In both synthetic and real contact patterns we find that epidemic spreading is hindered for decreasing population fractions of risk-denier individuals. From empirical contact patterns we demonstrate that connectivity heterogeneity and group structure significantly affect the peak of hospitalized population: higher modularity and heterogeneity of social contacts are linked to lower peaks at a fixed fraction of risk-denier individuals while, at the same time, such features increase the relative impact on hospitalizations with respect to the case where everyone correctly perceive the risks.     

Tracking Resilience to Infections by Mapping Disease Space

Infected hosts differ in their responses to pathogens; some hosts are resilient and recover their original health, whereas others follow a divergent path and die. To quantitate these differences, we propose mapping the routes infected individuals take through “disease space.” We find that when plotting physiological parameters against each other, many pairs have hysteretic relationships that identify the current location of the host and predict the future route of the infection. These maps can readily be constructed from experimental longitudinal data, and we provide two methods to generate the maps from the cross-sectional data that is commonly gathered in field trials. We hypothesize that resilient hosts tend to take small loops through disease space, whereas nonresilient individuals take large loops. We support this hypothesis with experimental data in mice infected with Plasmodium chabaudi, finding that dying mice trace a large arc in red blood cells (RBCs) by reticulocyte space as compared to surviving mice. We find that human malaria patients who are heterozygous for sickle cell hemoglobin occupy a small area of RBCs by reticulocyte space, suggesting this approach can be used to distinguish resilience in human populations. This technique should be broadly useful in describing the in-host dynamics of infections in both model hosts and patients at both population and individual levels.     

Evolution of innate behavioral strategies through competitive population dynamics

Many organism behaviors are innate or instinctual and have been “hard-coded” through evolution. Current approaches to understanding these behaviors model evolution as an optimization problem in which the traits of organisms are assumed to optimize an objective function representing evolutionary fitness. Here, we use a mechanistic birth-death dynamics approach to study the evolution of innate behavioral strategies in a simulated population of organisms. In particular, we performed agent-based stochastic simulations and mean-field analyses of organisms exploring random environments and competing with each other to find locations with plentiful resources. We find that when organism density is low, the mean-field model allows us to derive an effective objective function, predicting how the most competitive phenotypes depend on the exploration-exploitation trade-off between the scarcity of high-resource sites and the increase in birth rate those sites offer organisms. However, increasing organism density alters the most competitive behavioral strategies and precludes the derivation of a well-defined objective function. Moreover, there exists a range of densities for which the coexistence of many phenotypes persists for evolutionarily long times.     

Comprehensive analysis of locomotion dynamics in the protochordate Ciona intestinalis reveals how neuromodulators flexibly shape its behavioral repertoire

Vertebrate nervous systems can generate a remarkable diversity of behaviors. However, our understanding of how behaviors may have evolved in the chordate lineage is limited by the lack of neuroethological studies leveraging our closest invertebrate relatives. Here, we combine high-throughput video acquisition with pharmacological perturbations of bioamine signaling to systematically reveal the global structure of the motor behavioral repertoire in the Ciona intestinalis larvae. Most of Ciona’s postural variance can be captured by 6 basic shapes, which we term “eigencionas.” Motif analysis of postural time series revealed numerous stereotyped behavioral maneuvers including “startle-like” and “beat-and-glide.” Employing computational modeling of swimming dynamics and spatiotemporal embedding of postural features revealed that behavioral differences are generated at the levels of motor modules and the transitions between, which may in part be modulated by bioamines. Finally, we show that flexible motor module usage gives rise to diverse behaviors in response to different light stimuli.

Vertebrate nervous systems can generate a remarkable diversity of behaviors, but how did these evolve in the chordate lineage? A study of the protochordate Ciona intestinalis reveals novel insights into how a simple chordate brain uses neuromodulators to control its behavioral repertoire.     

Evolutionary Establishment of Moral and Double Moral Standards through Spatial Interactions

Situations where individuals have to contribute to joint efforts or share scarce resources are ubiquitous. Yet, without proper mechanisms to ensure cooperation, the evolutionary pressure to maximize individual success tends to create a tragedy of the commons (such as over-fishing or the destruction of our environment). This contribution addresses a number of related puzzles of human behavior with an evolutionary game theoretical approach as it has been successfully used to explain the behavior of other biological species many times, from bacteria to vertebrates. Our agent-based model distinguishes individuals applying four different behavioral strategies: non-cooperative individuals (“defectors”), cooperative individuals abstaining from punishment efforts (called “cooperators” or “second-order free-riders”), cooperators who punish non-cooperative behavior (“moralists”), and defectors, who punish other defectors despite being non-cooperative themselves (“immoralists”). By considering spatial interactions with neighboring individuals, our model reveals several interesting effects: First, moralists can fully eliminate cooperators. This spreading of punishing behavior requires a segregation of behavioral strategies and solves the “second-order free-rider problem”. Second, the system behavior changes its character significantly even after very long times (“who laughs last laughs best effect”). Third, the presence of a number of defectors can largely accelerate the victory of moralists over non-punishing cooperators. Fourth, in order to succeed, moralists may profit from immoralists in a way that appears like an “unholy collaboration”. Our findings suggest that the consideration of punishment strategies allows one to understand the establishment and spreading of “moral behavior” by means of game-theoretical concepts. This demonstrates that quantitative biological modeling approaches are powerful even in domains that have been addressed with non-mathematical concepts so far. The complex dynamics of certain social behaviors become understandable as the result of an evolutionary competition between different behavioral strategies.     

Can Ethograms Be Automatically Generated Using Body Acceleration Data from Free-Ranging Birds?

An ethogram is a catalogue of discrete behaviors typically employed by a species. Traditionally animal behavior has been recorded by observing study individuals directly. However, this approach is difficult, often impossible, in the case of behaviors which occur in remote areas and/or at great depth or altitude. The recent development of increasingly sophisticated, animal-borne data loggers, has started to overcome this problem. Accelerometers are particularly useful in this respect because they can record the dynamic motion of a body in e.g. flight, walking, or swimming. However, classifying behavior using body acceleration characteristics typically requires prior knowledge of the behavior of free-ranging animals. Here, we demonstrate an automated procedure to categorize behavior from body acceleration, together with the release of a user-friendly computer application, “Ethographer”. We evaluated its performance using longitudinal acceleration data collected from a foot-propelled diving seabird, the European shag, Phalacrocorax aristotelis. The time series data were converted into a spectrum by continuous wavelet transformation. Then, each second of the spectrum was categorized into one of 20 behavior groups by unsupervised cluster analysis, using k-means methods. The typical behaviors extracted were characterized by the periodicities of body acceleration. Each categorized behavior was assumed to correspond to when the bird was on land, in flight, on the sea surface, diving and so on. The behaviors classified by the procedures accorded well with those independently defined from depth profiles. Because our approach is performed by unsupervised computation of the data, it has the potential to detect previously unknown types of behavior and unknown sequences of some behaviors.     

Social Experience Is Sufficient to Modulate Sleep Need of Drosophila without Increasing Wakefulness

Organisms quickly learn about their surroundings and display synaptic plasticity which is thought to be critical for their survival. For example, fruit flies Drosophila melanogaster exposed to highly enriched social environment are found to show increased synaptic connections and a corresponding increase in sleep. Here we asked if social environment comprising a pair of same-sex individuals could enhance sleep in the participating individuals. To study this, we maintained individuals of D. melanogaster in same-sex pairs for a period of 1 to 4 days, and after separation, monitored sleep of the previously socialized and solitary individuals under similar conditions. Males maintained in pairs for 3 or more days were found to sleep significantly more during daytime and showed a tendency to fall asleep sooner as compared to solitary controls (both measures together are henceforth referred to as “sleep-enhancement”). This sleep phenotype is not strain-specific as it is observed in males from three different “wild type” strains of D. melanogaster. Previous studies on social interaction mediated sleep-enhancement presumed ‘waking experience’ during the interaction to be the primary underlying cause; however, we found sleep-enhancement to occur without any significant increase in wakefulness. Furthermore, while sleep-enhancement due to group-wise social interaction requires Pigment Dispersing Factor (PDF) positive neurons; PDF positive and CRYPTOCHROME (CRY) positive circadian clock neurons and the core circadian clock genes are not required for sleep-enhancement to occur when males interact in pairs. Pair-wise social interaction mediated sleep-enhancement requires dopamine and olfactory signaling, while visual and gustatory signaling systems seem to be dispensable. These results suggest that socialization alone (without any change in wakefulness) is sufficient to cause sleep-enhancement in fruit fly D. melanogaster males, and that its neuronal control is context-specific.     

Automated Learning of Subcellular Variation among Punctate Protein Patterns and a Generative Model of Their Relation to Microtubules

Characterizing the spatial distribution of proteins directly from microscopy images is a difficult problem with numerous applications in cell biology (e.g. identifying motor-related proteins) and clinical research (e.g. identification of cancer biomarkers). Here we describe the design of a system that provides automated analysis of punctate protein patterns in microscope images, including quantification of their relationships to microtubules. We constructed the system using confocal immunofluorescence microscopy images from the Human Protein Atlas project for 11 punctate proteins in three cultured cell lines. These proteins have previously been characterized as being primarily located in punctate structures, but their images had all been annotated by visual examination as being simply “vesicular”. We were able to show that these patterns could be distinguished from each other with high accuracy, and we were able to assign to one of these subclasses hundreds of proteins whose subcellular localization had not previously been well defined. In addition to providing these novel annotations, we built a generative approach to modeling of punctate distributions that captures the essential characteristics of the distinct patterns. Such models are expected to be valuable for representing and summarizing each pattern and for constructing systems biology simulations of cell behaviors.     

Fitness Benefits of Mate Choice for Compatibility in a Socially Monogamous Species

Research on mate choice has primarily focused on preferences for quality indicators, assuming that all individuals show consensus about who is the most attractive. However, in some species, mating preferences seem largely individual-specific, suggesting that they might target genetic or behavioral compatibility. Few studies have quantified the fitness consequences of allowing versus preventing such idiosyncratic mate choice. Here, we report on an experiment that controls for variation in overall partner quality and show that zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata) pairs that resulted from free mate choice achieved a 37% higher reproductive success than pairs that were forced to mate. Cross-fostering of freshly laid eggs showed that embryo mortality (before hatching) primarily depended on the identity of the genetic parents, whereas offspring mortality during the rearing period depended on foster-parent identity. Therefore, preventing mate choice should lead to an increase in embryo mortality if mate choice targets genetic compatibility (for embryo viability), and to an increase in offspring mortality if mate choice targets behavioral compatibility (for better rearing). We found that pairs from both treatments showed equal rates of embryo mortality, but chosen pairs were better at raising offspring. These results thus support the behavioral, but not the genetic, compatibility hypothesis. Further exploratory analyses reveal several differences in behavior and fitness components between “free-choice” and “forced” pairs.     

In-Kennel Behavior Predicts Length of Stay in Shelter Dogs

Previous empirical evaluations of training programs aimed at improving dog adoption rates assume that dogs exhibiting certain behaviors are more adoptable. However, no systematic data are available to indicate that the spontaneous behavior of shelter dogs has an effect on adopter preference. The aim of the present study was to determine whether any behaviors that dogs exhibit spontaneously in the presence of potential adopters were associated with the dogs'' length of stay in the shelter. A sample of 289 dogs was videotaped for 1 min daily throughout their stay at a county shelter. To account for differences in adopter behavior, experimenters varied from solitary passive observers to pairs of interactive observers. Dogs behaved more attentively to active observers. To account for adopter preference for morphology, dogs were divided into “morphologically preferred” and “non-preferred” groups. Morphologically preferred dogs were small, long coated, ratters, herders, and lap dogs. No theoretically significant differences in behavior were observed between the two different dog morphologies. When accounting for morphological preference, three behaviors were found to have a significant effect on length of stay in all dogs: leaning or rubbing on the enclosure wall (increased median length of stay by 30 days), facing away from the front of the enclosure (increased by 15 days), and standing (increased by 7 days). When combinations of behaviors were assessed, back and forth motion was found to predict a longer stay (increased by 24 days). No consistent behavioral changes were observed due to time spent at the shelter. These findings will allow shelters to focus behavioral modification efforts only on behaviors likely to influence adopters'' choices.     

Nonequilibrium Brownian Motion beyond the Effective Temperature

The condition of thermal equilibrium simplifies the theoretical treatment of fluctuations as found in the celebrated Einstein’s relation between mobility and diffusivity for Brownian motion. Several recent theories relax the hypothesis of thermal equilibrium resulting in at least two main scenarios. With well separated timescales, as in aging glassy systems, equilibrium Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem applies at each scale with its own “effective” temperature. With mixed timescales, as for example in active or granular fluids or in turbulence, temperature is no more well-defined, the dynamical nature of fluctuations fully emerges and a Generalized Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem (GFDT) applies. Here, we study experimentally the mixed timescale regime by studying fluctuations and linear response in the Brownian motion of a rotating intruder immersed in a vibro-fluidized granular medium. Increasing the packing fraction, the system is moved from a dilute single-timescale regime toward a denser multiple-timescale stage. Einstein’s relation holds in the former and is violated in the latter. The violation cannot be explained in terms of effective temperatures, while the GFDT is able to impute it to the emergence of a strong coupling between the intruder and the surrounding fluid. Direct experimental measurements confirm the development of spatial correlations in the system when the density is increased.     

Incipient Social Groups: An Analysis via In-Vivo Behavioral Tracking

Social psychology is fundamentally the study of individuals in groups, yet there remain basic unanswered questions about group formation, structure, and change. We argue that the problem is methodological. Until recently, there was no way to track who was interacting with whom with anything approximating valid resolution and scale. In the current study we describe a new method that applies recent advances in image-based tracking to study incipient group formation and evolution with experimental precision and control. In this method, which we term “in vivo behavioral tracking,” we track individuals’ movements with a high definition video camera mounted atop a large field laboratory. We report results of an initial study that quantifies the composition, structure, and size of the incipient groups. We also apply in-vivo spatial tracking to study participants’ tendency to cooperate as a function of their embeddedness in those crowds. We find that participants form groups of seven on average, are more likely to approach others of similar attractiveness and (to a lesser extent) gender, and that participants’ gender and attractiveness are both associated with their proximity to the spatial center of groups (such that women and attractive individuals are more likely than men and unattractive individuals to end up in the center of their groups). Furthermore, participants’ proximity to others early in the study predicted the effort they exerted in a subsequent cooperative task, suggesting that submergence in a crowd may predict social loafing. We conclude that in vivo behavioral tracking is a uniquely powerful new tool for answering longstanding, fundamental questions about group dynamics.     

The Role of Protein Interactions in Mediating Essentiality and Synthetic Lethality

Genes are characterized as essential if their knockout is associated with a lethal phenotype, and these “essential genes” play a central role in biological function. In addition, some genes are only essential when deleted in pairs, a phenomenon known as synthetic lethality. Here we consider genes displaying synthetic lethality as “essential pairs” of genes, and analyze the properties of yeast essential genes and synthetic lethal pairs together. As gene duplication initially produces an identical pair or sets of genes, it is often invoked as an explanation for synthetic lethality. However, we find that duplication explains only a minority of cases of synthetic lethality. Similarly, disruption of metabolic pathways leads to relatively few examples of synthetic lethality. By contrast, the vast majority of synthetic lethal gene pairs code for proteins with related functions that share interaction partners. We also find that essential genes and synthetic lethal pairs cluster in the protein-protein interaction network. These results suggest that synthetic lethality is strongly dependent on the formation of protein-protein interactions. Compensation by duplicates does not usually occur mainly because the genes involved are recent duplicates, but is more commonly due to functional similarity that permits preservation of essential protein complexes. This unified view, combining genes that are individually essential with those that form essential pairs, suggests that essentiality is a feature of physical interactions between proteins protein-protein interactions, rather than being inherent in gene and protein products themselves.     

Unintentional Interpersonal Synchronization Represented as a Reciprocal Visuo-Postural Feedback System: A Multivariate Autoregressive Modeling Approach

People’s behaviors synchronize. It is difficult, however, to determine whether synchronized behaviors occur in a mutual direction—two individuals influencing one another—or in one direction—one individual leading the other, and what the underlying mechanism for synchronization is. To answer these questions, we hypothesized a non-leader-follower postural sway synchronization, caused by a reciprocal visuo-postural feedback system operating on pairs of individuals, and tested that hypothesis both experimentally and via simulation. In the behavioral experiment, 22 participant pairs stood face to face either 20 or 70 cm away from each other wearing glasses with or without vision blocking lenses. The existence and direction of visual information exchanged between pairs of participants were systematically manipulated. The time series data for the postural sway of these pairs were recorded and analyzed with cross correlation and causality. Results of cross correlation showed that postural sway of paired participants was synchronized, with a shorter time lag when participant pairs could see one another’s head motion than when one of the participants was blindfolded. In addition, there was less of a time lag in the observed synchronization when the distance between participant pairs was smaller. As for the causality analysis, noise contribution ratio (NCR), the measure of influence using a multivariate autoregressive model, was also computed to identify the degree to which one’s postural sway is explained by that of the other’s and how visual information (sighted vs. blindfolded) interacts with paired participants’ postural sway. It was found that for synchronization to take place, it is crucial that paired participants be sighted and exert equal influence on one another by simultaneously exchanging visual information. Furthermore, a simulation for the proposed system with a wider range of visual input showed a pattern of results similar to the behavioral results.     

Spatiotemporal dynamics of human high gamma discriminate naturalistic behavioral states

In analyzing the neural correlates of naturalistic and unstructured behaviors, features of neural activity that are ignored in a trial-based experimental paradigm can be more fully studied and investigated. Here, we analyze neural activity from two patients using electrocorticography (ECoG) and stereo-electroencephalography (sEEG) recordings, and reveal that multiple neural signal characteristics exist that discriminate between unstructured and naturalistic behavioral states such as “engaging in dialogue” and “using electronics”. Using the high gamma amplitude as an estimate of neuronal firing rate, we demonstrate that behavioral states in a naturalistic setting are discriminable based on long-term mean shifts, variance shifts, and differences in the specific neural activity’s covariance structure. Both the rapid and slow changes in high gamma band activity separate unstructured behavioral states. We also use Gaussian process factor analysis (GPFA) to show the existence of salient spatiotemporal features with variable smoothness in time. Further, we demonstrate that both temporally smooth and stochastic spatiotemporal activity can be used to differentiate unstructured behavioral states. This is the first attempt to elucidate how different neural signal features contain information about behavioral states collected outside the conventional experimental paradigm.     

A Continuum Mechanical Approach to the Flow Equations for Membrane Transport: I. Water Flow

A concept is presented for modeling flows through membranes using continuum mechanics. Viscous interactions (due to velocity gradients) are explicitly incorporated and position-dependent local water-membrane interactions are taken into account before obtaining slab averages. This is in distinction to other treatments where strictly one-dimensional force balance equations are written using slab average friction coefficients which are really composite functions of local interactions. It is shown that the viscous and other frictional interactions do not simply form linear combinations in the solutions to the equations of motion. Flow profiles for pressure-driven flows ranging from Poiseuille's flow to “diffusion” flow are obtained depending on the strength and extent of the water-membrane interaction. The model is also applied to self-diffusion flows and the measurement of “equivalent pore size.” It is shown that for a fixed pore size the ratio of filtration flow to self-diffusion flow for equal driving forces is able to vary over a wide range depending on the water-membrane interaction.     

Re-Examination of Globally Flat Space-Time

In the following, we offer a novel approach to modeling the observed effects currently attributed to the theoretical concepts of “dark energy,” “dark matter,” and “dark flow.” Instead of assuming the existence of these theoretical concepts, we take an alternative route and choose to redefine what we consider to be inertial motion as well as what constitutes an inertial frame of reference in flat space-time. We adopt none of the features of our current cosmological models except for the requirement that special and general relativity be local approximations within our revised definition of inertial systems. Implicit in our ideas is the assumption that at “large enough” scales one can treat objects within these inertial systems as point-particles having an insignificant effect on the curvature of space-time. We then proceed under the assumption that time and space are fundamentally intertwined such that time- and spatial-translational invariance are not inherent symmetries of flat space-time (i.e., observable clock rates depend upon both relative velocity and spatial position within these inertial systems) and take the geodesics of this theory in the radial Rindler chart as the proper characterization of inertial motion. With this commitment, we are able to model solely with inertial motion the observed effects expected to be the result of “dark energy,” “dark matter,” and “dark flow.” In addition, we examine the potential observable implications of our theory in a gravitational system located within a confined region of an inertial reference frame, subsequently interpreting the Pioneer anomaly as support for our redefinition of inertial motion. As well, we extend our analysis into quantum mechanics by quantizing for a real scalar field and find a possible explanation for the asymmetry between matter and antimatter within the framework of these redefined inertial systems.     

Immune fingerprinting through repertoire similarity

Immune repertoires provide a unique fingerprint reflecting the immune history of individuals, with potential applications in precision medicine. However, the question of how personal that information is and how it can be used to identify individuals has not been explored. Here, we show that individuals can be uniquely identified from repertoires of just a few thousands lymphocytes. We present “Immprint,” a classifier using an information-theoretic measure of repertoire similarity to distinguish pairs of repertoire samples coming from the same versus different individuals. Using published T-cell receptor repertoires and statistical modeling, we tested its ability to identify individuals with great accuracy, including identical twins, by computing false positive and false negative rates < 10⁻⁶ from samples composed of 10,000 T-cells. We verified through longitudinal datasets that the method is robust to acute infections and that the immune fingerprint is stable for at least three years. These results emphasize the private and personal nature of repertoire data.     

A Geometric Representation of Collective Attention Flows

With the fast development of Internet and WWW, “information overload” has become an overwhelming problem, and collective attention of users will play a more important role nowadays. As a result, knowing how collective attention distributes and flows among different websites is the first step to understand the underlying dynamics of attention on WWW. In this paper, we propose a method to embed a large number of web sites into a high dimensional Euclidean space according to the novel concept of flow distance, which both considers connection topology between sites and collective click behaviors of users. With this geometric representation, we visualize the attention flow in the data set of Indiana university clickstream over one day. It turns out that all the websites can be embedded into a 20 dimensional ball, in which, close sites are always visited by users sequentially. The distributions of websites, attention flows, and dissipations can be divided into three spherical crowns (core, interim, and periphery). 20% popular sites (Google.com, Myspace.com, Facebook.com, etc.) attracting 75% attention flows with only 55% dissipations (log off users) locate in the central layer with the radius 4.1. While 60% sites attracting only about 22% traffics with almost 38% dissipations locate in the middle area with radius between 4.1 and 6.3. Other 20% sites are far from the central area. All the cumulative distributions of variables can be well fitted by “S”-shaped curves. And the patterns are stable across different periods. Thus, the overall distribution and the dynamics of collective attention on websites can be well exhibited by this geometric representation.     

From kill the winner to eliminate the winner in open phage-bacteria systems

Phages and bacteria manage to coexist and sustain ecosystems with a high diversity of strains, despite limited resources and heavy predation. This diversity can be explained by the “kill the winner” model where virulent phages predominantly prey on fast-growing bacteria and thereby suppress the competitive exclusion of slower-growing bacteria. Here we computationally investigate the robustness of these systems against invasions, where new phages or bacteria may interact with more than one of the resident strains. The resulting interaction networks were found to self-organize into a network with strongly interacting specialized predator-prey pairs, resembling that of the “kill the winner” model. Furthermore, the “kill the winner” dynamics is enforced with the occasional elimination of even the fastest-growing bacteria strains due to a phage infecting the fast and slow growers. The frequency of slower-growing strains was increased with the introduction of even a few non-diagonal interactions. Hence, phages capable of infecting multiple hosts play significant roles both in the evolution of the ecosystem by eliminating the winner and in supporting diversity by allowing slow growers to coexist with faster growers.